Iraq I:  Inspectors Should Have Maximum Authority, Bush Says

U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday told two top U.N. inspection officials — chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency — that he wants inspectors to have maximum authority to hunt for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Oct. 30).

“The inspectors don’t want to be the cat in the cat-and-mouse game.  They don’t want to get run around,” said White House press secretary Ari Fleischer.  “They want to be able to go in and do their jobs and disarm [Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein.  In order to secure the peace, they have to have the ability to do their job.”

Observers have said that Bush is becoming increasingly involved in the U.N. debate over a new inspections regime, according to the Washington Times.  Both the U.N. General Assembly and the U.N. Security Council agree with the United States on the need to give weapons inspectors the authority to conduct their mission, Blix said.

“There is probably a very strong opinion in the General Assembly and the council that they would not tolerate any cat-and-mouse games,” he said. “And we would also report anything that we would perceive being cat-and-mouse games” (Bill Sammon, Washington Times, Oct. 31).

U.N. Debate

Meanwhile, none of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council threatened a veto as the full 15-member council completed the first round of negotiations yesterday on the U.S. draft resolution on Iraq.

The council members broadly agreed that they want to tell Hussein that must comply with weapons inspections or face military action, diplomats said.

“We’re looking for a resolution which would be agreeable to all 15 members — to achieve through inspections the full disarmament of Iraq,” said Richard Ryan, Ireland’s U.N. ambassador (Julia Preston, New York Times, Oct. 31).

The United States and France are still negotiating specific provisions of the resolution, with the two countries divided over the method of deciding whether Iraq has violated it, according to the Washington Post.

France, which believes the Security Council should decide, has proposed adding the phrase “when established by the Security Council” into the relevant sentence.  The United States has proposed language saying, “failure by Iraq to comply with, and cooperate fully with the implementation of this resolution (France would add its phrase here) shall constitute a … material breach” of its international obligations.  The United States has not proposed who would determine whether Iraq violated the resolution or how that would be done.

The United States and France appear closer to reaching a compromise over another contentious phrase — “material breach” — which has been used in the past to justify U.N. military action, the Post reported.  The United States wants to combine past Iraqi material breaches of U.N. resolutions with potential breaches of the new resolution into one paragraph in an attempt to guarantee future punishment, the Post reported.  France, Russia and China, however, want any mention of Iraqi breaches limited to past resolutions.

In a new proposal, France has suggested that only the Security Council should have the authority to determine whether a material breach has occurred.  The council would also have the sole right to determine whether Iraq had made “false statements or omissions” in declarations regarding its WMD program.  France has worked most of this week to gain support for its proposal.

“The French and the United States are narrowing in on an agreement, but they have not yet bridged the gap,” a Security Council diplomat said.  “France wouldn’t want to be in the same camp with the U.S. and Britain if Russia and China are abstaining.”

Russian U.N. Ambassador Sergey Lavrov told the Security Council that he does not object to including the material breach language.  Russia wants more assurance, however, that the phrase would not be used as a “hidden trigger” for an attack on Iraq.

China also still has lingering concerns over the use of the phrase.  “We appreciate the French effort, but we didn’t solve all our concerns.  The trigger is buried deeper, but it’s still there,” a senior U.N.-based Chinese official said (DeYoung/Lynch, Washington Post, Oct. 31).

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said he expects the Security Council to vote on the U.S. draft possibly by the end of next week.

“We are narrowing the differences.  I think we are getting much closer,” Powell said.  “I think this is all going to happen, certainly by the end of the next week” (Steve Holland, Reuters, Oct. 31).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime)

U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”)

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Iraqi Sanctions Revisions

IAEA Iraq Action Team

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Iraq II:  Bill Would Provide Safe U.S. Haven for Iraqi Scientists

A bill introduced this month in the U.S. Senate would grant immigrant visas and permanent residency in the United States to some scientists, engineers and technicians who have worked in Iraqi weapons of mass destructions programs.

According to the text of the bill, the proposed Iraqi Scientists Liberation Act, the legislation is designed to encourage “critical aliens” to share information on Iraq’s nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs without fear of reprisal by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein (see GSN, April 5; Iraqi Scientists Liberation Act of 2002).

“For nearly four years, Iraq has been able to pursue its weapons of mass destruction programs free of international inspections,” said Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden (D-Del.), who introduced the bill Oct. 8 with Senator Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), in a press release.

“Effective renewed inspections must rely on candid interviews with scientists who might have information about what has happened in those four years,” Biden said.  “If the scientists are monitored and subjected to pressure by agents of Saddam Hussein’s murderous regime, they will never provide honest answers” (U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee release, Oct. 9).

Five prominent arms control experts sent senators a letter this week calling the legislation “vital to ensuring the viability of any strengthened inspection regime.”

The bill says that, in addition to strengthening weapons inspections, an exodus of skilled technicians would cripple Hussein’s weapons programs (see GSN, Nov. 8, 2001).

“The emigration from Iraq of key scientists, engineers, and technicians could substantially disable Saddam Hussein’s programs to produce weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them,” it says.

To qualify, a defector must be “a scientist, engineer, or technician who has worked at any time since Dec. 16, 1998, in an Iraqi program to produce weapons of mass destruction or the means to deliver them,” the bill says.  An applicant must also have “critical reliable information” about Iraq’s programs and be willing to share it.  The legislation would also apply to immediate families of eligible asylum seekers.

The offer would end 36 months after the bill is enacted and would be limited to 500 asylum-seekers, not counting family members.  The bill was referred to the Judiciary Committee before the current recess (Iraqi Scientists Liberation Act).

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China:  U.S.-Chinese Company Might Dodge Export Controls

A U.S. business owned by a consortium that includes two Chinese companies might threaten U.S. national security, Insight Magazine reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 1).

Chinese entities San Huan New Materials and High-Tech Co., which was started and is still partially owned by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, bought into the U.S. company, Magnequench Inc., in 1995, according to Insight.

Magnequench “is little more than a front for the P.R.C. [China],” a senior U.S. analyst said.  The Chinese owners are using the company to obtain “state-of-the-art and emerging technology and [to] transfer it to the P.R.C.  It’s just another form of espionage,” the analyst said.

Magnequench produces rare-earth permanent magnets, which are used in missile guidance systems and in gas centrifuges used to enrich uranium, according to Insight.  Normally, a U.S. company would not be allowed to export technologies and equipment for the magnets to China, but because Magnequench is a U.S. company, there is little control over how its technology is used, according to Insight.

The Magnequench technology not only aids China’s nuclear weapons program, it also poses a proliferation risk, the analyst said (see GSN, Oct. 24).

“It enables them [China] to produce super-high-quality rare-earth magnets/ring magnets for use in gas centrifuges to produce nuclear-weapons material,” the analyst said.  “And in addition to enhancing their own nuclear weapons program, we know that China has already proliferated ring magnets to Pakistan, which played a critical role in developing Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.”

In February 1996, the Washington Times reported that the CIA had discovered evidence that China was exporting nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan.  Congress later confirmed that those exports had included 5,000 ring magnets, according to Insight.

Magnequench President and Chief Executive Officer Archibald Cox said he does not think the company’s Chinese partners pose any threat to U.S. security.

“There is no story about China stealing technology,” Cox said (Scott Wheeler, Insight Magazine, Oct. 30).

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United States I:  Poor Records Compromise Missile Readiness

Until recently the U.S. Air Force might not have been able to launch missiles from several of its silos in North Dakota because it kept poor track of its equipment and had inaccurate information on the readiness of its missile facilities, the Deseret News reported Tuesday (see GSN, Oct. 4).

A report from the Air Force Audit Agency blames poor training at Air Force Space Command and Utah’s Hill Air Force Base, where the faulty computer system was designed.  The report — produced in late 2001 but only released recently following a Freedom of Information Act request — says poor training led technicians to enter extensive misinformation into the computer system that tracked the status of missiles.

Investigators examined 2,863 records at three missile bases to determine that 991 records contained incorrect information.  In some cases, problems were so serious that an ordered missile launch might have been jeopardized.

“At Minot Air Force Base [in North Dakota], each launch facility must have 12 batteries to provide full functionality and mission capability,” the report says.  “However, all 150 launch facilities reviewed had inaccurate battery data recorded in the IMMP System.”

The Air Force had no sufficient formal training program in place for the Improved Maintenance Management Program.

“For example, training at Minot Air Force Base was a brief overview of the system (lasting approximately 30 minutes) combined with an on-the-job practice session,” the report says.

The Air Force has implemented a standardized training program and addressed errors, according to the report (Lee Davidson, Deseret News, Oct. 29).

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United States II:  B-2 Bombers Will Move Closer to Iraq

The United States plans to deploy nuclear-capable B-2 bombers to the United Kingdom and the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, Reuters reported today (see GSN, Sept 16).

The move would increase the weapons that Gen. Tommy Franks of U.S. Central Command has at his disposal for a potential attack on Iraq, according to Reuters (see GSN, Oct. 30).

“That’s what we want to give Gen. Franks,” said Col. Doug Raaberg, commander of the U.S. Air Force 509^th Bomb Wing in Missouri.  “The firepower he needs and the flexibility to do what he needs to do.”

An undisclosed number of bombers will relocate “when tasked” by higher-ranking officers, according to Raaberg.  The B-2 is capable of flying 6,000 miles carrying 40,000 pounds of bombs without refueling, he said (Jim Wolf, Reuters, Oct. 31).

The move comes more than a year after the U.S. Air Force purchased deployable shelters for the bombers.  Officials had intended to buy 12 shelters for deployed B-2s, but lowered the order to five earlier this year (see GSN, Aug. 13).  The shelters allow technicians to apply a coating that makes the B-2 harder to track.

The shelters are “not an umbrella for bad weather,” Raaberg said.  “They really are an oven” that gives the Air Force perfect conditions to work on the planes (Aerospace Daily, Oct. 31).

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North Korea:  U.S. Congressmen Call to End Agreed Framework

In reaction to Pyongyang’s recent acknowledgement that it has been working on enriching uranium, five members of the U.S. Congress yesterday called on President George W. Bush to end the 1994 Agreed Framework in which North Korea had consented to end its nuclear weapons program in exchange for energy assistance (see GSN, Oct. 29).

“First and foremost, it seems that since North Korea’s covert nuclear program is a blatant violation of the Agreed Framework, the accord is nullified,” the lawmakers said in a letter sent to the White House.  “In that regard, we strongly believe that the U.S. should cease support for the Korean Energy Development Organization and that U.S. fuel-oil shipments should be permanently terminated” (see GSN, Oct. 21).

Senators John Kyl (R-Ariz.), Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) and Robert Smith (R-N.H.) as well as Representatives Christopher Cox (R-Calif.) and Edward Markey (D-Mass.) signed the letter.

The letter calls on Bush to use all available means, including economic sanctions and an end to the construction of two light-water nuclear reactors for North Korea under the framework, to force Pyongyang to comply with international obligations.

“We hope that the United States will be able to implement the full range of economic and diplomatic sanctions to compel North Korean compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” the letter says.

The United States should work with its allies “to prepare for a future beyond the current Stalinist regime in Pyongyang,” the lawmakers said in the letter.  “We see no viable alternative given the proven failure of subsidizing North Korea and of relying upon that country’s promises” (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Oct. 31).

For further information, see:

Agreed Framework Text

KEDO

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Russia I:  Officials Deny Fentanyl Usage Violates Treaty

While the civilian death toll from Saturday’s Moscow theater raid rose again, Russian officials yesterday refuted reports that the fentanyl-based aerosol used to incapacitate Chechen separatists might violate the Chemical Weapons Convention (see GSN, Oct. 30).

“I officially declare that chemical substances of the kind banned under international conventions on chemical weapons were not used in the course of the special operations,” Russian Health Minister Yuri Shevchenko said (see GSN, Oct. 30).

Two more hospitalized former hostages have died, but Russian officials denied that the secrecy that initially surrounded the use of the aerosol caused any unnecessary deaths (Michael Wines, New York Times, Oct. 31).

Russia’s Foreign Ministry supported Shevchenko’s stance that the gas does not violate international agreements, spokesman Alexander Yakovenko said (Judith Ingram, Associated Press/Moscow Times, Oct. 31).

Shevchenko’s comments on the international chemical weapons treaties followed a request for information on the gas from Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Director General Rogelio Pfirter (BBC Online, Oct. 30).

Criticism of Russia’s performance in the aftermath of the theater raid mounted from Russian and international sources, including the liberal Yabloko Russian opposition party.

“The (lack of) organization of medical assistance to the victims … verges on the criminal,” a Yabloko statement read.

“Increasing evidence suggests that many hostages died because they were not given basic medical care immediately after their rescue,” a Human Rights Watch statement said (Bernard Besserglik, Agence France-Presse, Oct. 31).

Shevchenko also denied that any lack of medical care contributed to hostages’ deaths.  He told reporters that 1,000 antidotes for the gas were ready for use by emergency personnel at the theater.

“Specialists, in particular myself, had been warned, even though the operation had to be carried out on short notice,” Shevchenko said.

He said the gas was not deadly, but civilians succumbed to it because they were exhausted, hungry and stressed.  A Russian chemical weapons expert disagreed, saying that fentanyl is deadly if it is not closely monitored.

“With fentanyl, as specialists say, the threshold of an admissible and inadmissible dose for a human organism is very close,” said Lev Fedorov, president of the Russian Union for Chemical Safety.  “Any mistake may be fatal” (Glasser, Baker, Washington Post, Oct. 31).

Meanwhile, a toxicology professor at Munich University Clinic in Germany said that the gas used in the raid also contained halothane — an anesthetic — and possibly other substances.  Thomas Zilker analyzed blood and urine samples from two Germans who had been held hostage in the theater (Ingram, Moscow Times).

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Russia II:  Finland to Provide Aid for Weapons Disposal Program

Finland signed an agreement Friday to help destroy Russia’s chemical weapons arsenal (see GSN, Oct. 15).

Under the agreement, Finland plans to deliver special-use equipment to the Gorny chemical weapons disposal facility in the Saratov region, which is currently under construction (see GSN, Aug. 22).  The facility is set to begin operation in the first half of next year, said Rene Nyberg, Finland’s ambassador to Russia.  Finland has already provided similar equipment to a Russian chemical weapons storage facility located in Kambarka in the Udmurtia republic, said Zinovy Pak, director of the Russian Ammunitions Agency (see GSN, May 3).

Finland has provided more than $980,000 in assistance to Russia’s chemical weapons disposal efforts, according to Interfax.  Of that, more than $410,000 has been given to the Kambarka storage facility, while more than $570,000 is set to be spent on the Gorny site (Interfax, Oct. 25).

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Yugoslavia:  Firms Helped Libya Acquire Cruise Missiles, U.S. Says

The United States has informed officials in Yugoslavia that certain Yugoslav businesses have aided Libya in developing long-range cruise missiles, Reuters reported today (see GSN, Oct. 29).

A U.S. document published yesterday in the Yugoslav weekly Nedeljni Telegraf says three Serbian firms have aided Libya in developing a 900-kilometer-range missile able to carry a 1,100-pound payload, according to Reuters.  The firms might also have aided Iraqi missile development, according to the document.

“The U.S. opposes all missile-related cooperation with Libya and Iraq and works actively to impede their access to missile-related equipment and technology,” the document says (Reuters/Boston Globe, Oct. 31).

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Iraq:  Croatian Police Charge Yugoslavs With Smuggling Missile Components

Croatian police have filed charges against four Yugoslavs for allegedly smuggling explosives on a ship believed to have delivered military equipment to Iraq, Reuters reported today (see GSN, Oct. 25).

Authorities are holding two of the four alleged smugglers — the captain and the first mate of the Boka Star, which was seized in Croatian waters last week — in jail in the port of Rijeka, a police spokeswoman said.  The other two are still at large, according to a police statement (Reuters/Washington Post, Oct. 31).

Croatian authorities who seized the Boka Star found 208 tons of nitrogen-based explosive powder used for artillery and missiles, according to the New York Times.  Similar exports would be subject to review and an export license under the Missile Technology Control Regime (see GSN, Oct. 28).

While Yugoslavia might face U.S. sanctions over possible MTCR violations and the violation of the U.N. arms embargo on Iraq, such a measure is not yet being considered, diplomats said.

“We have been encouraged by the response so far,” a Western diplomat said.  “We have to give them time to complete investigations, but we are pressing them every day” (Daniel Simpson, New York Times, Oct. 31).

For further information, see:

Missile Technology Control Regime (U.S. State Department)

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Bulgaria:  Sofia Finishes Dismantling SS-23 Missiles

Bulgaria has finished dismantling its stockpile of 100 Soviet-made SS-23 Scud and Frog ballistic missiles, Reuters reported today (see GSN, Oct. 2).  An explosion that injured four workers at a plant had temporarily halted the destruction effort earlier this month.

“Overcoming some serious hurdles, Bulgaria destroyed the warheads of the missiles, guaranteeing safety and environmental protection,” Sofia said today (Reuters, Oct. 31).

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U.S. Plans:  Pentagon Considers Accelerating PAC-3 Production

Some senior U.S. Defense Department officials want to accelerate production of the Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) missile interceptor, even though it has suffered test failures, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Aug. 22).

The PAC-3 performed poorly in flight tests conducted between February and May, the Post reported.  The interceptors failed to fire in some tests, and when they did, they had an almost equal hit-to-miss ratio (see GSN, Aug. 5).

Aides to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have indicated, however, that they want to increase PAC-3 production without waiting for results of testing on recent fixes, according to the Post.  Because the Army only has 38 PAC-3s available, with another 15 planned for December, some Pentagon officials are concerned that the military might run out of the interceptors in the event of an attack on Iraq next year (see GSN, Sept. 19).

“Indeed, we are looking at ways to accelerate the production of PAC-3 out of concern for near-term vulnerability,” Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in a speech last week to the Frontiers of Freedom, a missile defense advocacy group.

There is some dissent within the Pentagon, according to the Post.  Defense officials in charge of testing new weapons systems have said that approving the accelerated production might reduce pressure to continue with planned improvements.

Officials have also questioned whether an increase in PAC-3 production would actually increase the number of interceptors available in the event of a war with Iraq next year.  It usually takes about a year and half to make an interceptor, industry and congressional sources said (Bradley Graham, Washington Post, Oct. 31).

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