International Response:  U.N. Counterterrorism Cooperation Improves

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

UNITED NATIONS — One year after a counterterrorism committee was established to help governments comply with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1373 on counterterrorism measures following last September’s attacks on the United States, the council Friday reviewed progress on the efforts (see GSN, April 16.

British Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock, who has chaired the committee since its inception, said Friday that the council has “enjoyed unprecedented support from the U.N. membership for its efforts to turn the global consensus on fighting terrorism into practical action.”

Resolution 1373 called on states to adopt national laws to deny safe haven to terrorists, to halt the international transfer of money for terrorist activities and to ratify the 12 anti-terrorism treaties.  “Governments throughout the world have responded to the challenge ... [to] prevent and suppress terrorism,” Greenstock said.  “In almost every case, parliaments have begun to consider or adopted new laws and governments have reviewed the strength of their institutions to fight terrorism.”

Greenstock said more than 180 states have “reported to the CTC on the action taken and planned.  And the dialogue has continued. … To date, the total number of reports received by the CTC stands at 265.  Awareness of what we are doing, and of what we need to know, is close to universal.”

He added, “As required by the resolution, states have looked again at the 12 international conventions and protocols related to terrorism.  Ratifications have gone up significantly since July a year ago.  A year ago, only Botswana and the U.K. had ratified all 12 instruments.  Today, 24 states have done so.  We want the pace to accelerate further.”

Greenstock also told the council, “There is still much more to do before terrorists find that there is no safe haven because the bar against terrorism has been raised in every country.  The CTC will continue to offer encouragement, advice and guidance to states on the implementation of 1373.”

Secretary General Kofi Annan told the council the United Nations has a three-prong strategy for countering terrorism:  dissuasion, denial, and cooperation.  Dissuasion means “setting effective norms and implementing relevant legal instruments,” he said.  “To achieve effective dissuasion, it is essential to remember that the fight against terrorism is above all a fight to preserve fundamental rights and sustain the rule of law.”

Regarding denial, Annan said, “We must deny would-be terrorists the opportunity to commit their dreadful acts” by supporting the CTC, “by greater efforts to achieve disarmament — especially through strengthening global norms against the use or proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; and by giving technical support to states seeking to curb the flow of arms, funds, and technology to terrorist cells.”

Annan described the U.N. role in cooperation as “encouraging subregional, regional, and global organizations to join forces in a common campaign.”

“Just as terrorism must never be excused, so must genuine grievances never be ignored simply because terrorism is committed in their name,” Annan said.  “It does not take away from the justice of a cause that a few wicked men or women commit murder in its name. … As the United Nations unites to defeat terrorism in the months and years ahead, we must act with equal determination to solve the political disputes and long-standing conflicts which generate support for terrorism.  To do so is not to reward terrorism or its perpetrators; it is to deny them the opportunity to find refuge, in any cause, any country.  Only then can we truly say that the war on terrorism has been won.”

The debate, which continued throughout the day Friday, resumes tomorrow afternoon.  At the conclusion, the council is expected to issue a statement calling on states to focus on ways to further implement Resolution 1373, to ratify the anti-terrorism conventions and to pass national legislation to strengthen laws against terrorism.

For more details of the session, click here.

For more information, see:

U.N. Counterterrorism Committee

U.N. Security Council Resolution 1373

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Iraq I:  Hussein, in Switch, May Allow Palace Inspections

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein might soon allow U.N. weapons inspectors into his palaces, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 4).

Both U.N. and U.S. officials said they believe Iraq will back down and allow inspectors into Hussein’s eight presidential sites.  The United States is attempting to push the U.N. Security Council to pass a new resolution that would allow inspections at “any time and any place” (see GSN, Oct. 3).

There is still an assortment of issues to be worked out before the new resolution is complete, the Post reported (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Oct. 6).

Presidential palaces might soon be available to inspection, and Iraq is willing to work with the United Nations, according to Mohammed al-Douri, Iraq’s U.N. ambassador, speaking on a television news program.

“Certainly we can accommodate ourselves with the U.N. to have free access to presidential sites,” Aldouri said.  “We are not rejecting any resolutions of the Security Council.”

U.S. officials dismissed Iraqi statements as unconvincing.

“Whenever they’re faced with a determined front they start backpedaling,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.

In the United States, Senator Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) said yesterday that the Senate would pass a resolution giving President George W. Bush broad authority to attack Iraq.  Daschle and other senators, however, are continuing to seek to modify the proposed resolution submitted to Congress by Bush (see GSN, Oct. 3).

“It will pass, and I suspect that there will be a broad bipartisan coalition in support of it,” Daschle said (Strobel/Davis, Philadelphia Inquirer, Oct. 7).

War Crimes List

Meanwhile, the Bush administration is preparing a list of 13 Iraqi officials whom it hopes to prosecute for a variety of war crimes, the Chicago Tribune reported today.

Hussein heads the list, which also contains six of his family members, including two of his sons.  Ali Hassan Majid, is alleged to have played a large role in the use of chemical weapons that killed Iraqi Kurds in northern Iraq, is the second person on the list.

Bush plans to further attempt to sway the U.S. Congress to support an attack on Iraq when he addresses the United States on television tonight, the Tribune reported.

“The president will make the point that in great democracies like ours, wars are not the first option and are not rushed into,” an administration official said.  “But if it comes to war, it will be a just cause because Saddam Hussein’s defiance has given the world no choice” (Robin Wright, Chicago Tribune, Oct. 7).

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North Korea:  U.S. Envoy Returns From “Useful” Talks

The first U.S. envoy to visit North Korea under the Bush administration returned to Tokyo Saturday (see GSN, Oct. 4).

“I felt that our exchanges in Pyongyang were frank, as befits the seriousness of our differences, and they were useful too,” Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian affairs James Kelly said.

Kelly did not disclose the substance of the discussions.  He had planned to address U.S. concerns with North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, according to previous reports (see GSN, Oct. 3; Howard French, New York Times, Oct. 5).

Kelly met with Kim Yong Nam, North Korean’s second most powerful figure, and First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju.  No plans are in place for more talks, Kelly told reporters in Tokyo, “nor did we expect any following my visit” (Valerie Reitman, Los Angeles Times, Oct. 6).

The United States is committed to dialogue with North Korea, and Pyongyang is willing to keep relations open, Kelly said, according to Japanese Foreign Ministry officials (Reuters/Miami Herald, Oct. 6).

Meanwhile, Japan, South Korea and the United States are expected to meet for talks on North Korea during the summit meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Mexico this month.  The three allies plan to discuss Pyongyang’s weapons of mass destruction and missile programs, according to Kyodo News Service (Kyodo News Service/BBC Monitoring International Reports, Oct. 7).

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Iraq II:  Baghdad Continues WMD Development Efforts, CIA Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Since the end of U.N. weapons inspections in 1998, Iraq has sought to rebuild or further develop its weapons of mass destruction programs, according to a CIA report released Friday (see related GSN story, today).

Many intelligence analysts believe that for the past four years, Iraq has sought to rebuild its nuclear weapons program, which was heavily set back because of the 1991 Gulf War and later U.N. inspections, the report says (see GSN, Sept. 11).  Iraq has also heavily invested in its biological weapons program and worked to maintain its chemical weapons program.

Nuclear Weapons

Before the Gulf War, Iraq had developed an advanced nuclear weapons program that had some success in developing uranium enrichment techniques, according to the report.  While U.N. inspections revealed most of the Iraqi nuclear weapons program, Iraq has still withheld relevant information, such as procurement logs, experimental data and foreign assistance, the report says.  Iraq has also continued to hide information on enrichment techniques, weapons design and foreign procurement, it says.

Iraq still has a large number of nuclear scientists, documents and sufficient dual-use capabilities to support a renewed nuclear weapons program, the report says.  The increase in international trade with Iraq has also helped provide access to technology and materials, as well as foreign assistance, it says.

Iraq’s ability to produce a deployable nuclear weapon is dependant on obtaining weapon-grade material.  If Iraq is able to obtain sufficient amounts of material from foreign sources, it could have a useable weapon within a year, the report says (see GSN, Sept. 25).  If Iraq has to rely on self-developed weapon-grade material, however, it could take until the last half of this decade to produce a weapon, it says.

One area of concern regarding Iraq’s attempts to acquire weapon-grade materials is Baghdad’s efforts to obtain proscribed high-strength aluminum tubes, according to the report (see GSN, Sept. 19).  Intelligence experts have said such tubes could be used in centrifuges to enrich uranium and some intelligence specialists have said this is Iraq’s intended use, the report says.  It also says, however, that other intelligence specialists believe Iraq could intend to use the tubes in conventional weapons programs.

Biological Weapons

Iraq’s biological weapons programs have remained active and are larger and more advanced since the Gulf War, according to the CIA report. 

“The improvement or expansion of a number of nominally ‘civilian’ facilities that were directly associated with biological weapons indicates that key aspects of Iraq’s offensive BW program are active and most elements more advanced and larger than before the 1990-1991 Gulf War,” the report says. 

Iraq has maintained stockpiles of biological weapons agents, as well as the ability to deliver them with missiles, bombs, aerial sprayers and covert operations, according to the report.  Iraq has also maintained its biological weapons production capabilities, through the use of dual-use plants and mobile laboratories, it says.

A number of analysts believe that Iraq’s remaining ballistic missile arsenal and missile development efforts are intended to deliver biological weapons, the report says.  Iraq is suspected of having retained a few dozen Scud-variant ballistic missiles with ranges of 650 to 990 kilometers, as well as of developing unmanned aerial vehicles and advanced short-range and medium-range missiles, it says.

Chemical Weapons

Iraq has resumed production of chemical weapons agents such as sarin, VX and mustard gas, and probably has stockpiles of 100 to 500 metric tons of agents, according to the CIA report (see GSN, Sept. 24).  U.N. inspections, however, seriously reduced Iraq’s chemical weapons program and it is currently at a reduced state compared to what it was before the Gulf War, the report says.  Iraqi VX production and storage capabilities, however, have probably improved, it says.

The Iraqi chemical industry is capable of producing chemical weapons agents, although with the aid of external sources for some precursors, according to the report.  Baghdad is working to expand its chemical weapons production capabilities through the use of dual-use plants, it says.  The report notes chlorine and phenol plants at the Fallujah II site east of Baghdad, which have civilian uses but also could be used to develop blister and nerve agents.

“Iraq has three other chlorine plants that have much higher capacity for civilian production; these plants and Iraqi imports are more than sufficient to meet Iraq's civilian needs for water treatment,” the CIA report says.

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime)

U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”)

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Iraqi Sanctions Revisions

IAEA Iraq Action Team

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International Response:  Russia Unhappy With Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone, Experts Say

Experts are divided over whether Russia will support a treaty establishing a Central Asian nuclear weapon-free zone, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Oct. 2).

“The Russians don’t like this at all,” said William Potter, director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.  “They’re not happy with anything that limits their freedom to maneuver.”

The zone is probably of more interest, however, to the countries involved — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — than to Russia, said Alexei Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

“The leaders of Central Asia want to emphasize that they are an exception (in the region) — they’re not Iran, they cannot be compared to Pakistan, they don’t dream of this prospect,” Malashenko said.  “In that context, they belong to world society.”

During negotiations on the draft treaty establishing the zone, Russia pushed to retain its ability to deploy nuclear weapons within Central Asia.  Kazakhstan inserted language that said the treaty does not affect obligations under past agreements — including the 1992 Tashkent Collective Security Treaty, which, according to the Russian interpretation, allowed Russia to seek permission to deploy nuclear weapons within treaty countries.

Last week, Uzbekistan added language saying that treaty signatories would take all necessary measures to implement the main provisions of the treaty, thus obligating them to refuse Russian nuclear weapons, according to the Post.

The five Central Asian countries are still negotiating when to sign the treaty, the Post reported.  Kazakhstan wants to wait until the end of the year to see if the five declared nuclear-weapon states will sign a protocol agreeing that they will respect the treaty, said Arman Baislanov, head of the national security department at the Kazakh Foreign Ministry.  The other four countries, however, want to sign the treaty during an Oct. 16-23 visit by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan to the region.

All five countries have agreed to hold the treaty signing ceremony at Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan — the site of more than 460 Soviet nuclear weapons tests.  Area residents still continue to suffer from the remaining radioactive wastes, the Post reported.

“We have a lot of negative experience,” Baislanov said (Washington Post, Oct. 5).

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Smallpox:  U.S. Health Officials Support Public Access to Vaccine

The United States should conduct a voluntary smallpox vaccination campaign to first vaccinate 500,000 health care workers and 10 million first responders and then make the vaccine publicly available as early as 2004, U.S. public health officials said Friday (see GSN, Sept. 27).

“We live in a society that values individual choice,” said Julie Gerberding, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  “If we have vaccine and we have data to accurately assess the safety, one school of thought is that informed people may want to have the choice of getting vaccine or not.”

White House biological terrorism advisers have recommended giving the public “ever-expanding access to vaccine” as more doses pass Food and Drug Administration requirements.  The agency will probably approve the first batches of vaccine by next month, according to the Washington Post.

To apply the ever-expanding access approach, officials would first vaccinate those considered to be at the greatest risk in the event of a smallpox outbreak, for example, public health investigators, emergency room personnel and hospital support staff, the Post reported.  The goal is “is to maximize our ability to respond to an attack should one occur,” Gerberding said.

In the second stage, officials would offer vaccine to 7.5 million health care workers and 3 million first responders, said Jerome Hauer, assistant Health and Human Services secretary for emergency preparedness.  Bush could also choose to combine both stages and vaccinate the bulk of U.S first responders at one time, the Post reported.

After these two stages, the vaccine could be made available to U.S. residents as early as 2004, according to officials.  “Right now, our thinking is in favor of making vaccine available to the general public,” Gerberding said.

Bush has yet to decide who should be vaccinated and when vaccinations should begin, according to the Post.  Vice President Dick Cheney has advocated a broad U.S. vaccination plan, sources said.  The policy is “under review,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan (Washington Post, Oct. 5).

Senator Urges Public Vaccination

Senator Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), ranking member on the Senate Health, Education Labor and Pensions Committee, argued in a commentary in yesterday’s Washington Post that U.S. residents should be given access to smallpox vaccine and should be allowed to choose to be vaccinated.

The panic and confusion likely to result from a smallpox outbreak would make it difficult for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to implement a policy to begin mass vaccinations within 10 days, Gregg wrote (see GSN, Sept. 23).  The vaccine must also be administered within four days to be effective, and the flulike symptoms of smallpox could mean it could take weeks to detect an outbreak, he wrote (Judd Gregg, Washington Post, Oct. 6).

Pediatricians Advocate Limited Vaccination

The American Academy of Pediatrics said today that the U.S. smallpox vaccination plan should involve only limited vaccinations in the event of an outbreak.  The potential side effects of the vaccine are too serious, and it has not been tested on children, the academy said in a policy statement (see GSN, Sept. 25).  Instead, the academy supports a “ring vaccination” strategy — vaccinating those who came into contact with an infected person.

“We’re talking about a disease that hasn’t existed in the world since the 1970s and a vaccine that we know can cause death,” said Julia McMillan, a Johns Hopkins medical school pediatrics professor and coauthor of the policy (Lindsey Tanner, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Oct. 7).

Risks

The smallpox vaccine poses several potential health risks, including complications for as many as 50 million U.S. residents at special risk, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, Sept. 24).

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services experts have estimated that for every 1 million people who are vaccinated, 15 would suffer life-threatening side effects such as encephalitis, and one or two might die.  More people could experience other serious side effects such as blindness, but most of them could probably recover, the Post reported.

If 200 million U.S. residents were to take the vaccine, 200 to 400 would probably die, as many as 3,000 would probably suffer life-threatening side effects and 160,000 would probably suffer other serious side effects, according to the Post.  A large number of vaccine recipients would be expected to suffer mild side effects such as fever, and 15 to 20 percent of vaccinated children would probably be sick enough to miss school for several days (Washington Post, Oct. 5).

Israelis Hospitalized

Meanwhile, two Israeli health care workers have been hospitalized due to complications from the smallpox vaccine, Ha’aretz reported today (see GSN, Aug. 21).  An employee at a public health office in Jerusalem was hospitalized after contracting a rash but was released two days later.  An employee at a public health office in Safed was hospitalized after experiencing headaches and fever.  Doctors initially suspected meningitis, but the symptoms were later diagnosed as the flu, according to Ha’aretz.

About 6,000 Israeli first responders and health care workers have so far undergone voluntary vaccinations.  The Israeli Fire Department is expected to begin vaccinations next week, according to a department spokesman (see GSN, Sept. 18).  Most Israeli ambulance crews have also agreed to be vaccinated, said a spokesman for Magen David Adom, Israel’s emergency response service.

The majority of employees at hospitals and health maintenance organizations, however, have refused to be vaccinated, Ha’aretz reported.  Israeli Environmental Ministry staff members have said they would be vaccinated, but only if they receive extra pay (Haim Shadmi, Ha’aretz, Oct. 7).

For further information, see:

CDC Smallpox Information

Journal of the American Medical Association Background on Smallpox

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Anthrax I:  Hatfill Prepares Defamation Lawsuits

Steven Hatfill, the former U.S. Army biologist who has become the public focus of the FBI’s investigation into last fall’s anthrax attacks, said Saturday that he plans to file several lawsuits for defamation (see GSN, Oct. 3).

During a press conference held by Accuracy in Media, a nonprofit media watchdog group, Hatfill’s spokesman Patrick Clawson said the scientist plans to file lawsuits against individuals and organizations.

“He is planning to file several defamation suits in the upcoming months against several individuals and organizations, but he did not specify against whom the suits would be filed,” Clawson said.

Hatfill’s attorney Victor Glasberg asked Attorney General John Ashcroft last month to apologize for publicly calling Hatfill a “person of interest” in the FBI’s “Amerithrax” investigation.  Glasberg also asked Ashcroft to help Hatfill find work after the Justice Department prompted Louisiana State University to dismiss him (see GSN, Sept. 19).  In August, Hatfill said his lawyers planned to file an ethics complaint against Ashcroft (Reuters/Yahoo.com, Oct. 5).

For further information, see:

FBI Amerithrax Investigation

GSN Anthrax Attack Chronology (Dec. 12, 2001)

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Anthrax II:  Third Brentwood Test Successful, Officials Say

The U.S. Postal Service has conducted a third successful test of equipment to clean the anthrax-contaminated Brentwood Road postal facility in Washington, officials said Saturday (see GSN, Sept. 30).

The Postal Service conducted a 24-hour test of the “scrubbing” equipment that neutralizes the chlorine dioxide gas used to decontaminate the Brentwood facility.  Air sensors detected no leaks during the scrubbing process, officials said.  A bus equipped to detect trace amounts of chlorine dioxide gas reported some gas, but at safe levels, the officials said, adding that they hoped the latest test would clear the way for them to treat the entire building (Washington Post, Oct. 6).

For further information, see:

GSN Anthrax Attack Chronology (Dec. 12, 2001)

Journal of the American Medical Association Background on Anthrax

CDC Frequently Asked Questions About Anthrax

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Pakistan:  Officials Plan Ballistic Missile Test

Close on the heels of a missile test Friday, Pakistan has announced it plans to fire another Shaheen-series missile tomorrow (see GSN, Oct. 4).

President Pervez Musharraf approved the test of the Hatf 4, which is capable of reaching all Indian military sites, the Islamabad News reported today (News, Oct. 7).

India test-fired a surface-to-air missile shortly after Pakistan’s test Friday but is not planning to do the same tomorrow, AFX reported today (AFX, Oct. 7).

Indian officials did, however, accuse China of aiding Pakistan’s nuclear program (see GSN, Feb. 4).

“It is well known that Pakistan’s missiles are based on clandestinely imported material, equipment and technology,” Nirupama Rao, an Indian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said after Friday’s test flights.

A top official made more direct accusations over the weekend.

“Everyone knows what Pakistan will be without China,” Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes said Saturday.  “Its ego is boosted purely by the support it gets from China” (Ranjit Devraj, Inter Press Service/TerraViva, Oct. 7).

The United States has expressed displeasure with the tests.

“There is a charged atmosphere in the region.  These tests can contribute to that atmosphere, make it harder to prevent a costly and destabilizing nuclear missile arms race,” U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.  “A race like that would be a further threat to regional and international security” (U.S. State Department release, Oct. 4).

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Israel:  Country Prepares for Arrow Missile Defense Test

Israel is finalizing preparations for a long-anticipated test of the Arrow missile defense system, Ha’aretz reported yesterday (see GSN, June 19).

The increasing likelihood that the United States will attack Iraq has prompted nearby residents to withdraw objections to a test based on concerns about radiation from the battery, Ha’aretz reported.  The test of the Arrow missile system has taken on a new significance amid fears that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein will fire missiles at Israel if Iraq is attacked.

The Israeli Defense Forces are assembling a battery for the system, which consists of three parts, according to the newspaper.  The Green Pine radar is designed to detect and track a missile, sending trajectory data to the Golden Etrog command and control computer, which plans an interceptor path and sends that information to the battery itself to launch an Arrow anti-missile missile, according to Ha’aretz.  Military personnel have repositioned the command and control unit and are finishing work on the radar system for the test (Amnon Barzilai, Ha’aretz, Oct. 6).

Arrow designers have worked to improve upon the Patriot missile system which was used in Israel in the 1991 Gulf War, the New York Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 6).  If Israel employs the Arrow system, it would be the first combat use of an interceptor designed exclusively to counter ballistic missiles, a Pentagon official said.

“The whole world will be watching to see what happens,” the official said.

The battery currently being installed for testing is the second of three and provides partial missile defense for the country.  The $2 billion system — almost half of which was financed by the United States — will become a national missile defense system once all three planned batteries are in place (see GSN, May 7).

“We can cover the heart of the country and the largest population centers in central Israel and in the north,” battery commander Lt. Col. Shahar Shohat said of the current capability (Michael Gordon, New York Times, Oct. 6).

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