Threat Assessment:  U.S. Officials Concerned About Threat From Seas

U.S. officials, concerned about a seaborne terrorist attack possibly involving a chemical-laden ship, have noted about 15 cargo vessels worldwide that they suspect to be directly under al-Qaeda’s control or at least at its disposal, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Dec. 16).

While the United States is concerned about al-Qaeda using the ships to transport terrorists and illicit material, intelligence officials are also worried that a freighter carrying chemicals could be hijacked and crashed into a port, the Post reported.

U.S. intelligence officials are tracking some of the suspected ships with satellites, surveillance planes and allied forces.  The United States has also established databases to keep track of cargo and crew members and help identify “anomalies,” according to Frances Fragos-Townsend, chief of U.S. Coast Guard intelligence.

That effort can also face difficulties, however, as seamen often use fake identification to hide criminal pasts, according to U.S. officials.

“This industry is a shadowy underworld,” said a senior U.S. official close to the initiative to prevent terrorist attacks from the sea.  “After 9/11, we suddenly learned how little we understood about commercial shipping.  You can’t swing a dead cat in the shipping business without hitting somebody with phony papers,” the official added.

Ninety-six hours before a ship arrives at a U.S. port, information on cargo, crew, the ship itself and recent port calls must be submitted to U.S. authorities.  The information is relayed to a facility in West Virginia where inconsistencies with the information are investigated, the Post reported.

Some critics say that security is not tight enough, specifically citing the October incident in which a wooden freighter ran aground in Florida and deposited 220 Haitians ashore.

“If the Coast Guard can’t stop 200 people on a freighter from coming into the port of Miami, how can they stop a terrorist with a dirty bomb,” said Bruce Stubbs, a former Coast Guard captain and a security consultant.

“If all you do is wait for ships to come to you, you’re not doing your job,” Fragos-Townsend said.  “The idea is to push the borders out,” she added (see GSN, Dec. 30).

U.S. and allied forces have been intercepting and searching ships but face major challenges because some countries allow ships to “flag” their vessels there but do not monitor them.

In particular, Comoros, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Bolivia do not pay close attention to their ships and Belize allows operators to register ships online, the Post reported (John Mintz, Washington Post, Dec. 31).

Back to top

Iraq:  After One Month, Inspectors Have So Far Found “Zilch”

After more than a month inside Iraq, U.N. inspectors have found little evidence that Baghdad has maintained or rebuilt it weapons of mass destruction programs — instead finding only two apparent technical violations of U.N. resolutions, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, Dec. 30).

“If our goal is to catch them with their pants down, we are definitely losing,” an inspector said.  “We haven’t found an iota of concealed material yet,” the inspector added.

So far, biological, chemical and nuclear weapons experts have failed to find any conclusive evidence that Iraq has continued to develop weapons of mass destruction, the Times reported.  The chemical experts have yet to find any evidence that Iraq actually possesses tons of chemical agents as suspected, the inspector said.  While the biological experts have taken samples, most biological agents do not last long and have probably been buried or destroyed, the Times reported. 

Nuclear experts have found that old Iraqi uranium-enrichment sites have not been disturbed since 1998, which has led to conclusions that the old sites have not been used, according to the Times.  Inspectors are still searching Iraq, however, for secret caches of enriched uranium that could be hidden anywhere within the country.

“I must say that if we were to publish a report now, we would have zilch to put in it,” the inspector said.

Inspectors have only discovered two possible Iraqi violations of U.N. resolutions — attempts to obtain ballistic missile components and alterations of others without first notifying the United Nations, according to the Times.

Inspectors have said that to conduct their work effectively within Iraq, they need intelligence information from U.N. Security Council members, including the United States, which has put the most pressure on inspectors to find something.

“We can’t look for something which we don’t know about, the inspector said.  “If the United States wants us to find something, they should open their intelligence file and share it with us so that we know where to go for it,” the inspector added.

The United States has provided inspectors with “high-quality” intelligence information, but they have yet to use it, a senior Bush administration official said yesterday.  “They have gotten some intelligence, and they will get more,” the official said.

During the previous rounds of inspections, Iraqi defectors from WMD programs provided some of the most useful information, according to the Times.  While the United States has urged inspectors to remove Iraqi scientists and their families for interviews, some inspectors doubt the effectiveness of this measure.

The interviews are “a very difficult and complex thing,” the inspector said.  “I took part in such interviews in 1998 ... These interviews didn’t get us anywhere then.  They will not take us anywhere now.  The risk for their [Iraqi scientists’] lives and the lives of their relatives is great, and we can’t do anything to create a normal situation,” the inspector added.

The inspector said he doubted that inspectors would be able to remove Iraqi scientists from the country.

“It’s stupid to think that we can offer them to go abroad to testify,” the inspector said.  “Once any of them expresses a desire to go abroad for an interview, his brains will be kicked out in no time — his and his entire family’s,” the inspector added (Loiko/Farley, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 31).

U.S. intelligence officials have said that Iraq is hiding at least two of its WMD scientists in palaces belonging to President Saddam Hussein, according to the Washington Times.  The scientists, a suspected nuclear weapons scientist and a suspected biological and chemical weapons expert, have been hidden in an apparent attempt to prevent inspectors from interviewing them, the officials said.

There is also evidence that the Iraqi military has recently moved chemical and biological weapons materials to underground storage sites that are unknown to the U.N. inspectors, the U.S. intelligence officials said (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Dec. 31).

War Costs

Mitchell Daniels, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, estimated yesterday that the costs of a war with Iraq could range from $50 billion to $60 billion — an estimate far lower than those previously released by White House officials (see GSN, Sept. 17).

Daniels did not provide specific costs for either a short-term or long-term conflict with Iraq.  The White House is budgeting for both though, and the previous estimate of a cost ranging from $100 billion to $200 billion, issued by former White House chief economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey, was too high, Daniels said.

It is impossible to determine the ultimate end costs of any military action against Iraq, Daniels said.

“This is nothing more than prudent contingency planning,” Daniels said.  “At this point there is no war,” he added.

Daniel’s estimate is similar to the price tag of the 1991 Gulf War, which cost more than $60 billion at the time, or about $80 billion in current dollars, according to the New York Times.  The United States only paid for a small fraction of the costs incurred during the Gulf War, however, with allies covering the bulk of the expenses, the Times reported.  If the United States opts for war again, Washington will probably be forced to cover most of the expense, diplomats said.

U.S. President George W. Bush has been kept informed about the budget projections and has yet to make any decision, Daniels said.  “At this point our position is that the president has made no decision,” he said (Elisabeth Bumiller, New York Times, Dec. 31).

Oil-For-Food

The U.N. Security Council voted 13-0 yesterday to adopt a U.S.-sponsored resolution that added a number of dual-use items to the U.N. Goods Review List of items that Iraq may not import without council approval, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, Dec. 11).  Both Russia and Syria abstained, the Post reported (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, Dec. 31).

Russian U.N. Ambassador Sergei Lavrov explained his abstention by saying the resolution was too restrictive and would affect imports that were specifically civilian in nature.  Lavrov also said he objected to new restrictions on the imports of trucks, which would be detrimental to the distribution of humanitarian goods.

Iraq’s cooperation with weapons inspectors should result in a lifting of sanctions, not further restrictions, said Mikhail Wehbe, Syrian ambassador to the United Nations.  The Security Council also did not have adequate time before the vote to properly examine the proposed changes, he said (M2 Presswire, Dec. 31).

The United States was forced to compromise on some issues to get the council’s approval.  In particular, the final measure did not include an earlier U.S. proposal to regulate Iraqi imports of atropine, which can be used as both a heart medication and a nerve gas antidote, the Washington Post reported.  After facing opposition from France and Russia — Iraq’s two main suppliers of the drug — the United States agreed to a compromise that would allow Iraq to import without council approval atropine doses typically used for medical purposes and limited numbers of atropine autoinjectors.  Imports of larger atropine doses, of the size commonly used as a nerve gas antidote, will require Security Council approval.

Over the past five years, Iraq has imported more than 3.5 million vials of atropine, primarily from French and Russian companies, according to the Post.  Of these, more than 3.4 million vials contained a dose of 0.6 milligrams of atropine — consistent with that provided to heart attack victims.  A nerve gas victim would require a dose of at least 2.0 milligrams of atropine for treatment, the Post reported.

U.S. diplomats said they were pleased at the results of yesterday’s Security Council vote.

“The United States is pleased with the outcome today; it meets the goals we set for ourselves,” said James Cunningham, deputy U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (Lynch, Washington Post).

Inspections

U.N. inspectors visited at least eight suspect Iraqi sites today, according to Reuters.  Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission visited a military base in Fallujah, about 30 miles northwest of Baghdad, witnesses said.  UNMOVIC missile experts visited the al-Mansour Company in Tajiyat, just outside of Baghdad, and the al-Maamoun plant in Youssefiyah, about 20 miles south of Baghdad, Iraqi officials said.

UNMOVIC biological teams traveled to a pharmaceutical research center and the Baghdad offices of the bin Sina Company, Reuters reported.  UNMOVIC chemical experts visited a petrochemical research center and a military engineering company, both located in Baghdad.

A team of International Atomic Energy Agency experts visited a plant operated by the bin Younees Company, located outside of Baghdad (Reuters, Dec. 31).

Yesterday, UNMOVIC and IAEA inspectors visited six sites, according to an agency press release.  UMOVIC biological teams visited the Central Public Health Laboratory in Baghdad and the Plant Protection Division No. 1 of the Abu Ghraib plant. 

An UNMOVIC chemical team visited the al-Nidaa State Company, which produces dual-use items made out of corrosion-resistant materials.  UNMOVIC missile inspectors conducted a repeat inspection of the al-Samood factory to conduct an accurate count of missile engines, according to the IAEA release.  UNMOVIC experts also visited the al-Mahamoudiayah water treatment plant, which is a central chlorine storage site for Baghdad water treatment facilities.

An IAEA team visited the al-Sawary Est-Jihad site, which consists of two factories — the Resin Plant and the Fiberglass Plant.  While there, inspectors worked to determine if any changes had been made to the site since 1998 (IAEA release, Dec. 30).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

IAEA Iraq Action Team

U.N. Resolution 1441

U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime)

U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”)

U.N. Resolution 706 (Oil-for-Food Program)

U.N. Office of the Iraq Program

Back to top

Iran:  WMD Threat Could Grow in Response to U.S. Policy, RAND Says

By Bryan Bender
Global Security Newswire

Due to a severe disadvantage in conventional military capability, Iran will probably continue to develop weapons of mass destruction during the next decade, but will be unlikely to use them unless directly threatened by the United States, according to a new 10-year forecast for the Persian Gulf region. 

Iran came under increased scrutiny this month when reports emerged about two nuclear facilities under construction that Western intelligence officials believe to be part of a covert weapons program (see GSN, Dec. 13).  Tehran considers the acquisition of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons as critical to its security, according to this month’s RAND report, The Persian Gulf in the Coming Decade: Trends, Threats and Opportunities.

RAND believes, however, that Tehran would only consider using weapons of mass destruction if pushed into a corner by the United States.  This view is similar to one put forward by many analysts who believe a U.S. military invasion to topple neighboring Iraq would dangerously raise the risk that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein will unleash weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Aug. 1).

“Given conventional U.S. superiority, it is not likely that Iran or Iraq would challenge the United States directly without considering the use of WMD,” the report says.  However, “neither regime would openly threaten WMD lightly: such a threat is likely to occur only if the United States challenges the regime’s very existence or the country’s territorial integrity,” the report says.

The report comes as Washington juggles a series of proliferation crises, including U.N. inspections in Iraq, renewed North Korean efforts to build a nuclear bomb, and continuing concerns that Iran could divert civilian nuclear assistance from Russia to weapons purposes.

Both Iran and Russia deny the charges.  “Our cooperation is in full accordance with all the international commitments of the countries which possess nuclear technologies,” Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev said in a Dec. 27 press conference.  “Iran and Russia both signed all the agreements required by the regime of nonproliferation of nuclear materials and nuclear technologies,” he said.

A Russian delegation visited Iran Dec. 22-25, including the Bushehr nuclear power plant under construction with Russian assistance.

“This cooperation,” Rumyantsev added, “involves no violation of agreements either by Russia or Iran.  And no fact can be presented to us to prove that they are in breach of any of these agreements.”

Iran’s suspected covert WMD developments, however, are likely to continue as a hedge against regional competitors as well as the conventionally superior United States, according to the RAND report.

“Despite Iran’s ambitious rhetoric, the country has actually spent little on its military forces in the last decade,” it says.  “WMD offer considerable power for little cost relative to conventional weapons,” the report says (see GSN, Nov. 18).

Iran’s pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, according to RAND, includes tons of chemical agents, some successfully weaponized; biological research; and efforts to develop capabilities for producing plutonium and highly enriched uranium.

“If Iran can divert fissile material, the timeline for developing a nuclear weapon could shorten to as little as a year or two,” according to RAND. 

Obstacles remain in Tehran’s path, however.  “Successful production of nuclear weapons … may be some years off for Iran — particularly if it is not able to divert fissile material,” the report adds.  “Tehran is not near the level that Iraq reached before the Gulf War.  Budget limits also prevent Iran from making massive investments in WMD.  Moreover, Iran is concerned about its international reputation, which would be jeopardized if it flagrantly violated international agreements on nuclear weapons,” the report says.

Back to top

North Korea:  IAEA Inspectors Leave Country

International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have left North Korea, Reuters reported today, and the United States is continuing diplomatic efforts to create a unified international front to isolate North Korea and pressure it into abandoning nuclear weapons efforts (see GSN, Dec. 30).

The two IAEA inspectors, one from China and the other from Lebanon, flew to Beijing after North Korean officials told them to leave Friday.  The two inspectors would not comment on their expulsion, according to Reuters.

“We have some job to do and we need to contact headquarters,” the Lebanese inspector said.

The inspectors are to present a report to the IAEA executive board Jan. 6, the agency said.  IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said the agency regretted the inspectors’ expulsion and said they were ready to return if North Korea chose to let them do so.

“We regret that they left,” Fleming said.  “But we’ve kept an open office.  We’re storing our equipment there, leaving open the eventual possibility that our inspectors could return,” she added (Paul Eckert, Reuters, Dec. 31).

The withdraw of the IAEA inspectors will make it even more difficult to monitor North Korea for signs that it might be developing nuclear weapons, Fleming said.

“We were the eyes of the world,” she said.  “Now we virtually have no possibility to monitor North Korea’s nuclear activities nor to provide any assurances to the international community that they are not producing a nuclear weapon,” Fleming added.

The lack of inspectors within North Korea will force the IAEA to become more reliant on satellite imagery, Fleming said.

“It’s a position this agency does not like to be in,” she said.  “We need to be on the ground at the facilities directly, in order to be in a position to verify a given country’s nuclear declaration,” Fleming added (George Jahn, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 31).

International Diplomacy

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has decided that North Korea’s neighbors, especially China and Russia, must take on a larger role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, officials said yesterday.  The White House approach would allow U.S. officials to maintain a focus on the situation with Iraq and delay any direct talks with North Korea, while still pursuing a diplomatic solution, the Washington Post reported.

So far, Russia and Japan have been the most aggressive in relaying tough messages from the United States to North Korea, while China and South Korea have been less supportive of placing pressure themselves on Pyongyang, according to U.S. officials.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested a meeting of diplomats from the four countries, along with the United States and North Korea, in order to elevate the informal discussions, the Post reported.  

U.S. officials have supported the idea of such a meeting, as it would allow them to maintain a policy of no direct talks with North Korea, according to the Post.  Donald Gregg, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, said yesterday that such a meeting “would be a face-saving way to sit down and talk to the North Koreans.”

China, however, has resisted the suggestion, saying that North Korea would not attend.

“The Chinese have come back and said, ‘you need to talk to them,’ which raises the question about whether they are carrying our water to Pyongyang or they are carrying Pyongyang’s water to us,” a U.S. official said (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Dec. 31).

South Korean President Kim Dae-jung has said U.S. attempts to pressure and isolate North Korea into abandoning its nuclear weapons efforts were guaranteed to fail and that his engagement policies were the only “effective” method.

“Pressuring and isolating communist countries have never been successful — Cuba is one example,” Kim said during a Cabinet meeting.  “But inducing such countries to open up through dialogue has always been successful,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Bangkok Post, Dec. 31).

South Korean President-elect Roh Moo-hyun has also been openly critical of what U.S. officials have called a ‘tailored containment’ policy, saying yesterday that the United States needs to consult with South Korea before taking any action.

“I'm skeptical about the effectiveness of the reported ‘tailored containment’ policy of the United States as a means to rein in North Korea,” Roh said.

The United States should give a high priority to South Korean views before making any decision regarding the Korean Peninsula, Roh said. 

“If the United States makes and announces a unilateral decision, and South Korea follows it, it can’t be called real cooperation between the two countries,” he said.

Roh announced yesterday that he would present a plan next month to help resolve the North Korean nuclear issue.  The plan would include proposals for a summit with and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and exchange visits by South Korean and U.S. presidential envoys, Roh said (Korea Herald, Dec. 31).

Containment

In addition to South Korean officials, diplomats and experts are skeptical of the effectiveness of U.S attempts to further isolate North Korea, saying there is little left to withhold.

“Economically, there really isn’t that much else that we can do to pressure North Korea,” said Lee Chung-min, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul.

North Korea suffers from a shortage of fuel, which keeps power plants idle and forces factories to operate at only about 30 percent capacity, said Park Suhk-sam, a expert on North Korea at South Korea’s central bank.  The energy that is produced goes primarily to Pyongyang and weapons factories, recent visitors said.

North Korea is able to obtain about $580 million annually through the export of ballistic missiles and missile technologies to countries such as Yemen, Syria, Egypt and Iran, said Kim Tae-woo, an arms control expert at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (see GSN, Dec. 16).  For any containment policy to be effective, this arms trade would need to be stopped, Kim said. 

Any attempts to economically isolate North Korea are likely to require U.N. Security Council support, Lee said.  Two of the council’s permanent members — Russia and China — are less likely to support such action, however, because of their economic ties to Pyongyang, according to the Washington Post.

Russia, which sells military equipment to North Korea, has been critical of the U.S. approach toward the nuclear issue.  “Attempts to isolate North Korea can only lead to a new escalation in tension,” Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said yesterday.

Experts have said China, which provides North Korea with food and fuel assistance, would also be less likely to support the U.S. policy for fear of destabilizing the Korean Peninsula.

“Of course, China will not support containment,” said Jin Linbuo, an Asian security expert at the China Institution of International Studies in Beijing.  “If North Korea is in turmoil, then lots of refugees will crowd into China.  Moreover, if North Korea collapses, then the Korean Peninsula would be wholly controlled by the United States and its coterie.  North Korea’s existence protects China from American military domination,” Jin said (Peter Goodman, Washington Post, Dec. 31).

Pakistan Denies Coffin Smuggling Incident

Pakistan has denied a recent Japanese newspaper report that said North Korea obtained nuclear equipment from Pakistan in 1998, smuggled in the coffin of the murdered wife of a North Korean diplomat, according to Channel NewsAsia.

“It is as ridiculous as it can get,” Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan said.  “A coffin which has a dead body in it will hardly have any room to accommodate anything else in it.  And if it has to accommodate then it is not a coffin, then it is a large container or something like that and can’t be called a coffin.  So obviously it is a totally baseless report and we reject it outrightly,” Khan added (Channel NewsAsia, Dec. 31).

Back to top

Iran:  Still No Agreement on Returning Spent Nuclear Fuel to Russia

Tehran and Moscow, unexpectedly, did not sign an agreement last week on a plan to return spent fuel to Russia from an $800 million dollar reactor being built in Iran, according to Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev (see GSN, Dec. 16).

Rumyantsev was in Iran last week to finalize the spent fuel agreement, but the two sides never signed.

“A concrete agreement calls for a certain procedure,” Rumyantsev told reporters after returning to Moscow.  “During our stay in Iran the president of the state said that Iran was fully in favor of the idea.  Now an intergovernment agreement must be agreed between the ministries and agencies … we have already finalized the text of the addition and it is currently pending before the Foreign Ministry for approval.  It begins with the words that Russia undertakes to deliver and the Iranian side undertakes to return spent nuclear fuel and then spells out the procedure,” he added.

Rumyantsev said he hopes an agreement will be signed within a month (Federal News Service transcript, Dec. 27).

Back to top

Al-Qaeda:  Terrorist Group Sought Help From Pakistani Nuclear Scientist

Azim Mehmood, son of Pakistani nuclear scientist Sultan Bashiru-din Mehmood, has said suspected terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden approached his father to help al-Qaeda develop a nuclear weapon, but was refused, the Associated Press reported Sunday (see GSN, July 11).

“Basically Osama asked my father, ‘How can a nuclear bomb be made and can you help us make one?’” Mehmood said.  “My father said, ‘No, and secondly you must understand it is not child’s play for you to build a nuclear bomb,’” he added.

Pakistani intelligence officials have placed a gag order on the elder Mehmood.  The conversations between the scientist and al-Qaeda operatives, as described by his son, however, indicate that bin Laden had a desire to obtain nuclear weapons, according to AP.  In addition to a nuclear weapon, “al-Qaeda also wanted a person who could train their people, and who could get them enriched material for their weapons,” Azim Mehmood said.

Mehmood said his father did not know what, if any, nuclear materials al-Qaeda had obtained.

“At one meeting they brought a box, a thing that someone had sold to them for a huge amount of money, but my father laughed and said it was nothing,” he said.

Neither the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad nor U.S. officials in Washington would comment on Mehmood’s story, AP reported (Kathy Gannon, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 29).

Back to top

U.S. Testing:  NNSA Activates Lasers for Nuclear Simulations

Scientists at the U.S. National Ignition Facility at California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory successfully activated four laser beams that will enable nuclear simulations and stockpile maintenance without underground testing, the National Nuclear Security Administration announced this month.

The high-power lasers, the first of 192 planned for the facility, will be used to apply extreme temperatures and pressures to small targets.  They were turned on more than a year ahead of schedule, according to an NNSA release.  On Dec. 18 scientists at Livermore used all four beams to produce a pulse that carried 43 kilojoules of infrared light and lasted five-billionths of a second.

“This important milestone marks the transition of the NIF from a construction project to an integrated light-producing facility,” said NNSA Acting Administrator Linton Brooks.  “It will help us model and simulate nuclear explosions to ensure the safety and reliability of our nuclear weapons stockpile without underground nuclear testing,” he added (National Nuclear Security Administration release, Dec. 19).

Back to top

India:  Officials Could Announce Formal Nuclear Command Soon

India will most likely announce its strategic force command — designed to handle nuclear and missile capabilities — early next year, The Hindu reported today (see GSN, Aug. 13).

Although a formal apparatus has not yet been announced, India might have an “informal” structure to handle such issues, according to outgoing chairman of the Indian Chiefs of Staff Committee, Army Gen. S. Padmanabhan.

“If it does not appear to be there, it does not mean it is not there.  What is invisible today will become visible tomorrow,” Padmanabhan said.  “These are certainly things not in the public domain.  We may have an informal structure already which in time could acquire a formal status,” he added.

Air Vice-Marshal T.M. Asthana could be named the head of the new command, The Hindu reported.

Padmanabhan also made reference to the idea that Pakistan’s nuclear capability prevented India from going to war earlier this year (see GSN, Dec. 30).

“We had evaluated it (the nuclear capability) and were ready to cope with it,” he said (Sandeep Dikshit, The Hindu, Dec. 31).

Back to top

Israeli Response:  Gas Masks Are Ineffective, Defense Expert Says

At least two-thirds of gas masks distributed to Israeli civilians are ineffective, the leading chemical and biological defense expert at the Israeli Defense Ministry said recently, according to today’s Ha’aretz (see GSN, Aug. 23).

Speaking at a recent meeting of top Israeli military officials, Esther Krasner said that the current masks are the same quality as those produced before the 1991 Gulf War.  Israel should cancel orders for the current masks and immediately begin producing “Sapphire-style” hooded masks, which are 10 times more effective, Krasner said.

Krasner is the chief of the Ramada Administration, the Israeli defense research body for protecting against chemical and biological warfare agents, Ha’aretz reported today.

Although it would take up to 10 years to produce the Sapphire masks for every Israeli, those who are in the areas considered to be at high risk of chemical or biological attack could be equipped in the next few months, she said.

Krasner has previously been critical of the older style masks, Ha’aretz reported.  The older masks do not allow for different shaped faces or extensive movement, according to Krasner (Amnon Barzilai, Ha’aretz, Dec. 31).

Back to top

Russia:  Chemical Disarmament Budget Unchanged for 2003

Russia has allocated $174 million for destroying chemical weapons in 2003, an amount criticized by the chief of the Russia’s chemical disarmament program, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 2).

“The sum is almost the same as it was in 2002,” said Zinovy Pak, head of the Russian Munitions Agency.  “We are certainly not satisfied with the sum, for we have to start construction of the main scrapping facilities for poisonous gases in Shchuchye … and Kambarka,” he added (Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 25).

Polish Aid

Russia and Poland signed an agreement Dec. 17 to cooperate on chemical disarmament, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.  Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz and Pak signed the agreement, which calls for Polish experts and technicians to assist in the destruction of the Russian stockpile.

Poland also has committed slightly more than $100,000 to joint disarmament efforts between the two countries (Russian Foreign Ministry release, Dec. 25).

Back to top

U.S. Response:  VX Breaks Down in Concrete, Scientists Discover

U.S. scientists at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory have discovered that the high alkalinity, or pH level, of concrete rapidly degrades VX nerve agent, the laboratory announced last month (see GSN, Mar. 22).

Gary Groenewold, a chemist at the laboratory, was testing a secondary ion mass spectrometer that can detect trace amounts of VX agent in a sample on ground-up concrete when the discovery was made.  An initial test of the measuring equipment was successful and Groenewold and his colleagues left the laboratory.  When the scientists returned to see if the spectrometer could reproduce its earlier findings, they discovered a surprising number of VX degradation byproducts.

“At the time, we didn’t know VX would degrade on concrete,” Groenewold said.  “Then we realized that we were looking at the spectral fingerprints for VX degradation products,” he added.

The researchers discovered that VX on concrete will break down to 1 percent of its original concentration after 15 hours at room temperature.  After 50 hours it is only one-10 millionth of its beginning concentration. 

The researchers believe that concrete, consisting mostly of carbonate and sand, neutralizes the VX agent with its high pH level.

Researchers plan to next measure VX degradation on intact, solid concrete (Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory release, Nov 18).

The spectrometer, and the new information on VX degradation, could provide useful to authorities who need to clean up after a VX attack, Science reported this month.  The device could also prove useful to weapons inspectors looking for evidence of chemical or biological weapons materials.

“There is always going to be concern over whether any residual chemical is left” in the aftermath of an attack, said Paul D’Agostino, an analytical chemist at Defense Research and Development Canada (Kendall Powell, Science, Dec. 9).

Back to top

Kuwaiti Response:  Officials Test Chemical Attack Response

Kuwaiti officials held a comprehensive and unannounced test of the country’s ability to respond to a chemical weapons attack Saturday, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Nov. 13).

Authorities exploded several cars and released yellow smoke to simulate a missile attack involving VX nerve agent, all without warning local police, fire and health officials.  Emergency workers extinguished the fires from the car explosions and treated mock victims at the scene.  When emergency responders arrived at the site of the gas release they found fellow firefighters pretending to be dead and called in workers with decontamination suits.

“What I saw was a very well coordinated exercise,” said Col. Stephen Owen Thomas, a British military attache.

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is suspected of having illicit stores of VX and Kuwait is concerned about a chemical attack.

“Saddam maybe will go out of his mind at any time,” said Col. Abdulaziz al-Malalla, Kuwaiti chief assistant of operations for civil defense.  “Saddam has chemical weapons.  We are worried for everyone in this country,” he added (Associated Press, Jordan Times, Dec. 29).

Back to top

ABM Treaty:  U.S. Judge Dismisses Congressional Lawsuit

U.S. District Judge John Bates yesterday dismissed a lawsuit filed by 32 members of the House of Representatives seeking to block the U.S. withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (see GSN, Nov. 8). 

Led by Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), the House plaintiffs claimed the Bush administration did not have the right to withdraw the United States from a treaty without first seeking congressional approval.  In his decision, Bates said the representatives did not have the legal standing to bring their case and that the treaty withdrawal was a political matter, not a legal one, according to the Associated Press.

The plaintiffs could have attempted to block the U.S. withdrawal from the treaty through political means, Bates said in his decision.  He noted that the representatives had been unable to obtain support for a resolution calling on President George W. Bush to consult with Congress prior to the treaty withdrawal. 

“Permitting individual congressmen to run to federal court any time they are on the losing end of some vote or issue would circumvent and undermine the legislative process,” Bates said (Associated Press/Washington Post, Dec. 31).

For further information, see:

ABM Treaty Text and Associated Documents (U.S. Defense Department)

U.S. Fact Sheet on Withdrawal from ABM Treaty

Back to top

United States:  Pentagon Deploys Advanced Radar at Base in Qatar

U.S. military officials have said a new advanced ground radar system, the Joint Tactical Ground Station, has been deployed at a U.S. base in Qatar to help protect U.S. forces in the Middle East from Iraqi ballistic missile attacks, the New York Times reported last week (see GSN, Dec. 30).

The radar is a mobile system that can alert commanders to enemy missile launches through the use of satellite data, according to the Times.  That data is also sent instantly to missile defense systems, such as the Patriot missile interceptor, in the region to help destroy incoming enemy missiles.  In addition to Camp as-Sayliyah in Qatar, the U.S. military has also deployed the new radar system in Germany and South Korea, the Times reported.

The radar system, when combined with other air defense systems, provides more advance warning time of an incoming enemy ballistic missile strike and more time to launch a counterattack, U.S. commanders in the region said.

“It gives us early warning and it has huge coverage,” said Lt. Col. Frank Molinari, commander of Army troops at the Qatar base (Schmitt/Shenon, New York Times, Dec. 26).

Back to top