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It’s like trying to get a large squid in a small plastic bag. It’s not an easy task.
—Chris Hellman, of the Center for Defense Information, on the difficulty of estimating the development and deployment costs of U.S. missile defense systems.

By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — The ground-based element of the Bush administration’s national missile defense plan could cost the country a maximum of $64 billion to research, develop, deploy and maintain through 2015, according to a report released yesterday by the Congressional Budget Office...Full Story
U.S. and Russian Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin will hold a long-planned nuclear arms reduction summit in Moscow May 23, Russian officials said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 22)...Full Story
U.S. officials discovered crude nuclear bomb diagrams in an al-Qaeda safe house in Kabul, according to an unclassified CIA report released Wednesday (see GSN, Jan. 3)...Full Story
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U.S law enforcement and intelligence officials said there have been no new credible terrorist attack warnings and no new alerts have been issued recently, the New York Times reported today.
During his State of the Union address Tuesday night, President George W. Bush said that documents were found in Afghanistan that included nuclear power plant diagrams and landmark descriptions (see GSN, Jan. 30).
Counterterrorism officials, however, said they did not have any information on specific plans for an attack. The documents found inside Afghanistan might indicate there is a plot to launch another attack, intelligence officers said, but there is no additional information that such a plot exists.
The documents “certainly show intent,” said one official. “But were there any definite plans? That’s where you need to get multiple sources and interview folks. So far, we haven’t had enough to issue any new alerts” (Johnston/Risen, New York Times, Feb. 1).
Another Attack “Likely”
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld yesterday said the United States is “likely” to experience another terrorist attack, one that could do more damage than those committed on Sept. 11 (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2001).
“In the years ahead, it is likely that we will be surprised again by new adversaries who may also strike in unexpected ways,” Rumsfeld said in a speech at the National Defense University in Washington. “And as they gain access to weapons of increasing power — and let there be no doubt that they are — these attacks will grow vastly more deadly than those we suffered several months ago” (Bryan Bender, Boston Globe, Feb. 1).
“Sleeping” Terrorists
“Sleeper cells” of terrorists might still be covertly operating inside the United States, FBI Director Robert Mueller said yesterday. He added that, while there is no information of any specific threats, recent information taken from interviews with captured al-Qaeda terrorists and the documents seized in Afghanistan indicate that the United States needs to remain on “a very high state of alert.”
“There are people plotting these kinds of things and we have very high-profile events coming up,” Mueller said. “We have moved heaven and Earth to provide security” for the Super Bowl and Winter Olympics (see GSN, Jan. 22), he said (Laura Sullivan, Baltimore Sun, Feb. 1).
NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson said yesterday that the alliance would not automatically support the United States if it tries to expand the anti-terrorism war to Iran, Iraq or North Korea (see GSN, Jan. 31).
“I think if the Americans could produce convincing evidence that there was a link between other countries and the attack that took place, then I think the allies would be seriously interested in that information,” he said. “But that hasn’t been forthcoming up to this moment. So it’s a matter for the North Atlantic Council to decide what to do about an attack or any subsequent evidence” (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 1).
The United Kingdom expressed support yesterday for the toughened stance that U.S. President George W. Bush indicated Tuesday in his State of the Union speech (see GSN, Jan. 30).
“We share the profound concern of the United States administration … and the need for firm action to be taken in respect to that terrorism,” said British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw. “It’s for other European nations to express their own views.”
According to a European diplomat, Bush’s remarks were “perceived in Europe and beyond as a combative, wartime speech and very shrewd domestic policy.”
“The rationale seems to be to find a way to make his mission — the fight against terrorism, a very noble fight — consistent [with] his religion, which is missile defense,” the diplomat said.
Bush’s opinion of Iran was “not the way we look at it,” said an Indian foreign ministry spokesman.
North Korea said the United States had “pushed the situation to the brink of war after throwing away even the mask of dialogue and negotiations.”
Bush Reiterates Accusations
Bush yesterday reiterated warnings to Iran, Iraq and North Korea — which he dubbed the “axis of evil” Tuesday — to not support terrorism or attempt to develop weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Jan. 31).
The three countries, along with others that seek weapons of mass destruction or harbor terrorists, “don’t hold the values we hold dear” and are on a “watch list,” Bush said during a speech in Atlanta.
“People say, what does that mean? It means they better get their house in order, is what it means,” Bush said. “It means they better not try to terrorize America and our friends and allies, or the justice of this nation will be served on them as well.”
U.S. National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice yesterday also backed Bush’s increased warnings.
The three countries “have a choice to make — to abandon the course they now pursue,” Rice said. “As the president said, we must not and we will not wait on events while dangers gather and we will use every tool at our disposal to meet this grave global threat.”
Rice said the tools that would be used include strengthened nonproliferation regimes and export controls and the new U.S. relationship with Russia that could help prevent the spread of dangerous materials.
“And we will move ahead with a missile defense system that can do the job, unconstrained by the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty,” she said (see GSN, Jan. 31).
Bush’s comments were not just directed at Iran, Iraq and North Korea, but also indirectly at Russia and China, officials said. The Bush administration has alleged that those two countries provide others with the capability to produce weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology (see GSN, Jan. 31).
The Bush administration especially wants to make an impact on Russia about its seriousness in talks about Russian technology sales to Iran, officials said, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, Jan. 22). Those talks have had little result to date, the Post reported. Bush has also brought up weapons sales to Iran and Iraq during talks with China (see GSN, Jan. 25), but those also have made little progress, officials said (De Young/Milbank, Washington Post, Feb. 1).
U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson yesterday announced plans to begin allocating funds to U.S. states to develop bioterrorism response plans (see GSN, Jan. 14).
The grants, totaling more than $1 billion, are “the largest one-time investment in the nation’s health system, ever,” Thompson said during a news conference in Washington. “These funds are just the start of our efforts to help states and communities build up their core public health capabilities.”
The funding, which was allocated in a $2.9 billion bioterrorism appropriations bill signed by President George W. Bush earlier this month, will be overseen by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Health Resources and Service Administration and the Office of Emergency Preparedness.
The funding will be mostly allocated to the states on the basis of population, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Each state will receive a minimum of $5 million. The states will get 20 percent of their funds up front and must submit a plan to receive the rest.
A state’s bioterrorism plan must describe how it will strengthen public health capabilities and how it would respond to a bioterrorist attack, the Journal-Constitution reported. Plans must be sent to the Health and Human Services Department by March 15, and they will be reviewed within a month of being received, federal officials said.
“We want a plan so the money is not wasted,” Thompson said (Eunice Moscoso, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Feb. 1).
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U.S. officials discovered crude nuclear bomb diagrams in an al-Qaeda safe house in Kabul, according to an unclassified CIA report released Wednesday (see GSN, Jan. 3).
The “diagrams, while crude, describe essential components — uranium and high explosives — common to nuclear weapons,” the report said. It added that it was not believed, however, that terrorists had any functional nuclear device.
Other evidence discovered in al-Qaeda stores in Afghanistan showed that the terrorists were victims of several scams in their pursuit of nuclear weapons, a senior governmental analyst said.
“That’s good news for us,” said Gary Richter of the U.S. Energy Department’s Sandia National Laboratories. “It shows they really don’t know what they are doing. If they knew to turn away these scam artists, it would be frightening.”
From the items discovered, Richter said al-Qaeda terrorists attempted several times to buy nuclear weapons and paid money for items that were ultimately worthless.
“They’ll buy junk,” Richter said, adding al-Qaeda members appeared to be very naive when it came to nuclear weapons.
“We’re not talking about dullards,” he said. “But their forte, their whole [method], tends to be more brute force than high-tech. Al-Qaeda is not a techie kind of organization and they’ve fallen flat on their faces in some areas.”
Officials also found in Afghanistan diagrams of U.S. nuclear power plants that showed al-Qaeda’s desire to attack these kinds of targets, a defense official said, adding it is unknown how developed those plans were. The evidence found appeared to be part of al-Qaeda’s research into the idea and could provide information as to how al-Qaeda operatives selected targets and planned attacks, the official said.
Officials found what may have been other evidence of potential targets — a photograph of the Space Needle in Seattle, plans to attack the Los Angeles International Airport and information about the Grand Coulee Dam in Washington state (Associated Press/New York Times, Jan. 31).
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U.S. and Russian Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin will hold a long-planned nuclear arms reduction summit in Moscow May 23, Russian officials said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 22).
After their meeting in Moscow, Bush and Putin will spend two days in St. Petersburg, the Russian officials said. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov set the summit date and preliminary details during a recent meeting at the Russian Embassy in Washington, according to the Associated Press.
Relations between the United States and Russia are “good,” Kasyanov said, adding that the two countries would cooperate in a number of areas (Associated Press /CNN.com, Jan. 31).
Several other preliminary meetings are scheduled before the Bush-Putin summit in May. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov will meet with a U.S. delegation headed by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz at a security conference in Munich this weekend. Another round of preliminary talks is scheduled for Feb. 19 in Moscow (Yahoo.com, Feb. 1).
U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham yesterday unveiled a new plan to accelerate cleanup operations at former nuclear weapons plants (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2001).
The new plan creates an $800 million “Expedited Cleanup Account,” which will help fund cleanup efforts at select sites. For a site to be chosen, it and the Energy Department must reach an accelerated cleanup schedule that will show measurable gains. A site chosen to participate in the plan would be provided funding faster than in previous years, according to an Energy Department press release. Once problems are solved at a site, the level of funding will return back to normal.
“By cleaning up serious problems more quickly under the new plan, our communities will be … safer,” Abraham said. “And there is an extra benefit to the taxpayers, because over the long run, the new plan will yield substantial savings on overhead, maintenance and security costs.”
Abraham said when he became energy secretary last year, he was told it would take 70 years and $300 billion to fully clean up former nuclear weapons production plants.
“That is not good enough for me, and I doubt it is good enough for anyone who lives near these sites,” Abraham said (U.S. Energy Department press release, Jan. 31).
U.S. intelligence agencies have detected preparations for a test of a new Chinese sea-launched ballistic missile on the north coast of China, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Jan. 10).
Testers will probably perform a “pop-up” test of the JL-2 missile — believed to be a version of the 5,000-mile range Dong Feng-31 — by ejecting it from the launch tube of a modified Russian-made submarine, according to the Times. Officials ran a similar test of the JL-2 in October and recently tested the Dong Feng-31 re-entry vehicle (see GSN, Nov. 6, 2001), which exploded in mid-flight, the Times reported (Gertz/Scarborough, Washington Times, Feb. 1).
Russia recently inspected two U.S. sites — a former missile facility and a nuclear submarine base — in accordance with the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), ITAR-Tass reported Wednesday.
Inspectors from the Russian nuclear threat reduction center inspected a former ballistic missile storage facility in Charleston, W. Va., and a ballistic missile submarine base in King’s Bay, Ga. The inspectors verified that there were no missiles, warheads or other nuclear weapons equipment at the West Virginia site. In Georgia, they confirmed the number of warheads installed on a submarine-launched ballistic missile (ITAR-Tass, Jan. 30 in FBIS-SOV, Jan. 30).
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The pharmaceutical company Bioport yesterday received U.S. permission to resume production of anthrax vaccine (see GSN, Jan. 15).
The Food and Drug Administration said Bioport, the sole U.S. producer of the vaccine, had met all federal requirements and could resume production for the Defense Department. Already, three batches of vaccine containing thousands of doses have passed quality checks and can be distributed immediately, the FDA said.
Bioport plans to produce 2 million doses of the vaccine this year and up to 8 million doses next year, according to Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson. “This product is a critical component in our arsenal,” Thompson said.
The FDA took “no shortcuts” in approving Bioport to resume vaccine production, even with the “important public health need to move forward on this,” Kathryn Zoon, the FDA official in charge of vaccines, said.
Military Reaction
The Pentagon did not say if or when it would begin mass anthrax inoculations, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Jan. 18). Vaccinations are to continue for some special missions units, but the department is “undertaking a thorough review of all factors to decide its future use of the vaccine,” officials said (Associated Press/New York Times, Jan. 31).
“We are pleased to learn of the [FDA’s] approval of Bioport’s new manufacturing facility to produce anthrax vaccine,” Assistant Defense Secretary for Health Affairs William Winkenwerder said. “This action by the FDA will result in an assured availability of vaccine, which meets high standards for safety and efficacy, to protect our troops against the very real threat of anthrax” (U.S. Defense Department release, Jan. 31).
Will It be Available for Civilians?
Bioport President Bob Kramer said he is interested in expanding the market for the anthrax vaccine beyond the military.
“It makes sense for these kinds of vaccines to be made available to the public based on their physician’s recommendation in tandem with policy decisions made by public health officials,” Kramer said.
He said Bioport advocates that “first responders” such as police and firefighters receive the vaccine. After that step is completed, a civilian vaccine stockpile “in the case of a more widespread act of terrorism” is important, he added.
The idea of making the anthrax vaccine available to the general public should be seriously considered, said Bradley Perkins, head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s meningitis and special pathogens branch.
“At some point, [the Health and Human Services Department] and other people are going to have to entertain — especially if a next-generation vaccine is available — that there may be a market for the vaccine outside of the public health sector,” Perkins said (Sue Ellen Christian, Chicago Tribune, Feb. 1).
South Korea’s Defense Ministry today launched its Chemical, Biological and Radiological Defense Command, aimed at helping defend against North Korean chemical and biological attacks (see GSN, Dec. 10, 2001).
The new command will begin operating biological detection vehicles next month, according to Col. Heo Byung-il, chief of the Division for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The vehicles are designed to identify, analyze and decontaminate a range of biological weapons agents.
The Agency for Defense Development, affiliated with the ministry, developed the biological detection vehicles and based them on the U.S. biological integrated detection system, Heo said (Korea Times, Feb. 1).
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The United States, which has authorized $50 million for chemical weapons destruction in Russia (see GSN, Jan. 30), requires Russia to meet six conditions before it can release the funds, and the Pentagon has not yet certified that the conditions have been met, said U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher Wednesday (U.S. State Department release, Jan. 30).
The conditions, as detailed in the fiscal 2002 Defense Authorization Act require Russia to:
* provide complete and accurate information regarding the size of its chemical weapons stockpile;
* demonstrate a commitment to spend at least $25 million for eliminating chemical weapons;
* develop a plan for destroying its nerve agents stockpile;
* enact a law to eliminate all nerve agents at one site;
* agree to destroy or convert chemical weapons production facilities at Volgograd and Novocheboksark; and
* procure international funding to build and maintain the destruction site (P.L. 107-107).
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By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — The ground-based element of the Bush administration’s national missile defense plan could cost the country a maximum of $64 billion to research, develop, deploy and maintain through 2015, according to a report released yesterday by the Congressional Budget Office.
Other sea-based and space-based elements under consideration for the Bush plan could add many tens of billions of dollars, according to the report, potentially bringing the system to over $200 billion if all are pursued.
The ground-based system alone could range up to $8 billion annually at various points over the next 13 years. The various other programs could raise the cost many unspecified billions of dollars more, the report showed.
The Pentagon last year requested in its budget $8.3 billion for its various missile defense activities, and Congress agreed to appropriate $7.8 billion.
“One interesting question this report raises is but doesn't answer is: if you are already spending $8 billion a year on various theater and national missile defense programs, how much more are you going to have to spend?” said Steven Kosiak, director of budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
“I think it's a very good effort,” he said, “It's sort of asking the impossible of a budget analyst to cost out something that doesn't exist.”
The study was sent yesterday to several senior senators, including Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), Minority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.), Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Carl Levin (D-Mich.), who chairs the Armed Services Committee.
No Combined Total for Plan
No precise combined totals were provided for the entire Bush plan, however, since some systems might draw on some of the same research and development activities and share some of the same sensors, command and control facilities and components, the report said. Also, no cost estimates were provided for some systems because of an absence of data from the Pentagon.
It is difficult to fix a number on program anyway because many of the programs could change as they are developed, Chris Hellman, a senior Center for Defense Information research analyst, said.
“A lot of these things are still really, really amorphous. When people attempt to put numbers on this, it’s like trying to get a large squid in a small plastic bag. It’s not an easy task,” he said.
He called attempts to assess the various costs “a lot of smoke.”
Still, the separate totals provided for various programs reflect the first detailed government accounting of the Bush plan since it was revealed last summer and it could inform congressional consideration this year of the costs, utility and probability for success of the plan.
“The CBO report shows once again that NMD is going to be extraordinarily expensive and will directly compete for resources with other Pentagon programs,” said John Isaacs, president of the Council for a Livable World arms control group.
The costs would come as the Pentagon anticipates significantly increased funding for sophisticated new fighter aircraft and other major systems currently under development, as well as money for other emerging priorities, such as developing new technologies, improving homeland defense and funding global counterterrorist operations. Bloomberg News reported Thursday the Pentagon wants to spend a record $411 billion on weapons alone from 2003 to 2007.
The defense budget has been on the rise, and Bush is expected to ask today for a $379 billion defense budget as he submits his budget to Congress for the fiscal 2003 budget.
Complicating the budget picture is the expected move into deficit spending, with the Pentagon competing against other programs for limited discretionary funding made scarcer because of a congressionally approved tax cut plan.
“I think there’s the perception that, politically, support for national missile defense, especially if it’s going to be staggeringly expensive, softened in the wake of Sept. 11,” said Hellman.
“Right now there’s money to burn at the Pentagon, so everybody is going to do all right. But when you really start to talk about the growth of the deficit and the slowing economy, and the budgetary pressures start to press down on the Defense Department, I think there is this belief on both sides of the issue that [national missile defense] is going to come under a lot more scrutiny,” Hellman said.
A Multi-Program Defense
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in July announced a significant change of approach from that of the Clinton administration, incorporating into one plan, for development and consideration, a variety of missile defense systems under development, each designed to knock an enemy warhead out of the sky or space in different courses of its flight.
The Bush plan also considers expanding the most expensive part of the plan, the ground-based interceptor system, from options for 100 interceptor missiles located at one site or 250 missiles at two sites, to a three-site system with 375 interceptors and a set of low-orbit satellites, costing $64 billion at most, or up to $8 billion annually, the report said.
A sea-based system, involving three ships patrolling at separate locations each with 35 interceptors, could cost $43 billion to $55 billion, up to $8 billion annually, the study said, although without the benefit of shared research, technology or equipment from other programs.
A system of space-based lasers could $56 billion to $68 billion, if built alone, it said.
The CBO said it did not estimate the costs for a sea-based boost-phase system or a Brilliant Pebbles space-based interceptor system, since there is no current information that would show what those systems would look like.
The Bush administration is planning research on both types of systems.
A commercial agreement was reached last week to produce major components of Israel’s Arrow missile interceptor in the United States, but government approval is still required before work begins. Israel Aircraft Industries and Boeing concluded the agreement under which Boeing will manufacture about half of the Arrow components and IAI will complete the final assembly of the components in Israel.
Israel has sought a U.S. production line for years, but the deal was complicated by Boeing’s concerns that its assistance could violate Missile Technology Control Regimes guidelines that restrict the types of missile systems U.S. firms may export. Israel originally wanted to produce complete Arrow systems in the United States, but those would be classified as “Category 1” systems under the MTCR and therefore face stricter export controls, according to Aerospace Daily. Boeing would face looser export restrictions by only producing Arrow components that would be considered “Category 2” MTCR systems.
Before production can begin, however, the U.S. State Department must approve a Technical Assistance Agreement, which Boeing submitted on Jan. 17, according to IAI.
“This cannot come to closure until both governments have given the appropriate approval,” said a Boeing representative who cautioned that that are no guarantees that the State Department will approve the deal (Sharon Weinberger, Aerospace Daily, Jan. 25).
Last year, the U.S. Congress appropriated about $130 million in fiscal 2002 defense appropriations to fund Arrow activities, including $30 million for to create the U.S. production line (TheStreet.com, Jan.21).
Israeli Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer is expected to promote the deal soon in Washington, according to a senior Israeli defense official.
“We want more of the missiles — not launchers, but missiles. Production [in Israel] is at full capacity and we need a decision on the matter, because it takes years,” said the official (O’Sullivan/Keinon, Jerusalem Post, Feb. 1).
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U.S. Energy Department officials are expected to request permission to dispose of nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain in Nevada before the planned repository is fully designed, the New York Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 28).
The department plans to apply for a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission license in 2004 to begin burying waste in Yucca Mountain by 2010, the Times reported. During a hearing of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, however, department officials acknowledged there is a large amount of preliminary work remaining on the project.
“Do you agree that this is just barely beginning to scratch the surface?” University of South Florida engineer and board member Alberto Sagues asked Energy officials.
“I don’t know if I’d say ‘barely,’” said Mark Peters, manager of the Science and Engineering Test Project at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
One of the major questions that still remains unanswered is whether to build a “hot” or “cold” repository, according to the Times.
In a “hot” repository, waste would be packed relatively closely so that radioactive decay would keep the rock above at boiling temperatures for a few hundred years. That would slow corrosion of the waste storage containers by keeping them dry, but could also cause changes in the rock that could damage the containers later, the Times reported.
A “cold” repository — in which radioactive waste would be spaced farther apart — could lead to more corrosion early on in storage, according to the Times. A cold repository would also cost more and require more excavation, which could release radon gas. The performance of a cold repository over the thousands of years required, however, could be easier to predict, according to scientists.
Both the Energy Department and the nuclear power industry have said that a flexible, phased approach to Yucca Mountain is appropriate and that any technical problems can be solved later.
“We also agree that our technical work is not finished,” said Lake Barrett, acting head of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. “We think we have sufficient science for the step that we are at.”
Barrett said that when the time comes for the Energy Department to apply for a license for Yucca Mountain, the department would have more information. If design problems in the repository are discovered later, engineers will be able to fix them, he said.
Unlike a nuclear reactor, a nuclear waste repository would be “very, very slow-acting,” Barrett said. “You’ve got a lot of time, decades.”
Board member Norman Christensen, a Duke University ecologist, questioned the phased approach. “In a regulatory world, flexibility can be a refuge from dealing with hard problems,” he said (Matthew Wald, New York Times, Jan. 31).
Heat Tests Completed
Scientists this month shut down heating rods buried inside Yucca Mountain that tested the effects of heat caused by radioactive decay, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported Monday. The data collected by the tests were similar to scientists’ predictions, Yucca Mountain project officials said.
The tests, which began in 1997, involved 50 electric rods inserted into the walls of a cavern in the mountain to simulate heat generated by the decay of radioactive nuclear waste. Researchers discovered that gases and water inside the rock mobilized during the test, and the walls dried out for 20 feet around the rods.
The test entered a cooling phase when the rods were turned off on Jan. 14, according to the Review-Journal. Once the rods were shut down, the 400-degree temperature of the rock walls in a 50-yard long cavern cooled down to about 350 degrees within a few days, said project officials.
The study will continue for another four years to test how natural and manufactured barriers around the nuclear waste will perform as the rock cools (Keith Rogers, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Jan. 28).
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