Israeli Response:  Air Force Plans to Deploy Patriot Missiles Centrally

The Israeli air force plans to install a Patriot anti-missile battery in the center of the country to protect against attacks from passenger airliners hijacked by terrorists, the Jerusalem Post reported today (see GSN, Feb. 5).

The decision to deploy a Patriot battery at a base in central Israel came in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, according to a report published today in an issue of the Israeli Air Force Magazine.  Previously, Patriot batteries were reserved for military defenses.

Last December, the Israeli air force conducted an exercise based on the Sept. 11 attacks, with F-16 fighter jets assuming flight patterns of passenger jets.  The planes flew missions along the international flight paths that lead into Israel, and officials concluded that a Patriot battery installed in the center of the country would be able to target the aircraft, according to the report in Air Force Magazine.

“Because of its success, the placement of a Patriot battery is planned at the base for the future,” the magazine said.

Israeli military officials said an attack similar to those on Sept. 11 could occur against Israeli cities, and proper defenses are needed to protect against this new threat.

“The terror attack that took place in the United States demonstrated the airborne terror threat that could also be directed against Israeli population centers,” Brig. Gen. Yair Dori, head of the Israeli anti-aircraft forces, was quoted as saying.

“One of the ways to provide the maximum defense from this sort of threat is the placement of a Patriot battery in the center of the country near the international flight paths that traverse Israel from the west to east,” Dori said (Arieh O’Sullivan, Jerusalem Post, Feb. 25).

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Canadian Response:  Canada at Low Risk for Bioterrorism, Official Says

Canada’s top bioterrorism official said Canada is at a low risk for a bioterrorism attack and is prepared for one if it should occur, the Ottawa Citizen reported yesterday.

The anthrax attacks in the United States sped up plans that were already in place to improve capabilities at Canadian laboratories to diagnose biological weapons agents, said Ron St. John, head of Health Canada’s branch for emergency preparedness (see GSN, Jan. 16).

“Things that were three-year plans became six-month plans,” St. John said.

Preparedness Emphasized

St. John said it was important for Canadians to keep in mind that the fear of a bioterrorism attack is almost as dangerous as an attack itself.

“We believe strongly that education is a really important part of this,” St. John said.  “We want to make people aware of this idea of low threat, but it does require some degree of preparedness.  Because it is not a purely theoretical threat, as witnessed by the anthrax.  It became a reality.  But we don’t want people to be paralyzed by the stuff.”

St. John is the head of the Center for Emergency Preparedness and Response, which was created in 2000 to be the main Canadian agency for public health security, according to the Citizen.  The center has 90 employees and is prepared to respond to any disaster, including terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction.

“I am one phone call away — every day, seven days a week — from trivia or the worst disaster the country will ever face,” St. John said.  “My cell phone is on 24 hours a day, seven days a week.”

Most people do not understand that it is much harder than believed for a terrorist to conduct an attack using biological weapons, St. John said.  The anthrax attacks last fall in the United States were a perfect example, he said.  Even though the letters contained millions of anthrax spores, only five people were killed.

“It didn’t kill millions. … It points out that it is somewhat difficult to create a catastrophe,” St. John said.  “So you can be somewhat reassured” (Mark Kennedy, Ottawa Citizen, Feb. 24).

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Iraq:  U.S. May Need a Year to Prepare Against Hussein

Drained by the U.S.-led war on terrorism in Afghanistan, the U.S. military would need at least one year before it could be ready for a large-scale offensive against Iraq, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, Feb. 22).

Stocks of precision-guided bombing systems and other arms are depleted, personnel forces are strained and the military would need time to transfer command logistics to the region around Iraq before attacking, according to analysts, foreign diplomats and senior administration and Pentagon officials.

The United States also is working to gain diplomatic support for an offensive, which many countries have opposed, the Post reported (see GSN, Feb. 14).  The United States is continuing to try to persuade the U.N. Security Council to revise sanctions against Iraq and demand that Iraq allow U.N. weapons inspectors to return (see GSN, Feb. 15).

The U.S. military is increasing production of “smart” bombs and other supplies in preparation for an attack that would probably start with massive bombing of Iraqi antiaircraft systems and suspected sites with weapons of mass destruction, the Post reported.  Partly due to concern that Iraqi missiles could carry weapons of mass destruction to Kuwait and Israel, Iraqi WMD sites would be an immediate, primary target. 

A ground offensive with U.S. troops prepared to operate in an environment involving chemical or biological weapons would probably follow a massive air assault, the Post reported.  The United States must stockpile WMD protective gear in the region for troops and civilians, according to the Post

“What deterrent is there on [Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein since we have told him his head is on a platter?” said retired Air Force Gen. Charles Boyd.  “We can never suppose he will do anything but use chemical or biological warfare” (Pincus/DeYoung, Washington Post, Feb. 24).

U.S. Officials Respond

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said in response to the Post article that the military is “rapidly replenishing” its smart bombs after using many in Afghanistan.  He emphasized, however, that increasing weapons production is not necessarily indicative of future military action.  “This happens any time one’s engaged,” he said.

The U.S. military will be ready if called to action, Rumsfeld said.  “You can be sure that the United States of America is going to be capable of doing anything that the president asked them to do, because he’ll know that before he asks anyone to do anything” (CBS “Face the Nation”/Defense Department transcript, Feb. 24).

U.S. General Richard Myers refused to specifically comment on the Post report, but he said the military is ready.

“We’re ready to do whatever the commander in chief asks us to do, and we will be ready,” he said (ABC “This Week”/Defense Department transcript, Feb. 24).

Inspectors Must Be Aggressive, Rumsfeld Says

Any thorough weapons inspections in Iraq would have to be more intrusive than the UNSCOM inspections that operated in Iraq after the Gulf War until 1998, Rumsfeld said.

“If you try to use the old regime, it wouldn’t work.  You would have to have a much more intrusive regime and many more inspectors and the Iraqis not controlling when they could come in, where they could go, what they could do.  And the Iraqis aren’t going to agree to something like that,” he said.

Former inspections were unsuccessful because the Iraqis moved and hid weapons of mass destruction, lied to the inspectors and refused access to inspectors, Rumsfeld said.  “The only real information they found was from defectors.”

Since 1998, Iraq has had time to further hide its WMD programs and improve technology, Rumsfeld said.  “You could … put inspectors all over that place, and it would be very difficult to find anything.”

When asked if weapons inspections in Iraq would be worthless, however, Rumsfeld said “no” (CBS “Face the Nation”/Defense Department transcript, Feb. 24).

Blair Backs U.S. Tough Line on Iraq

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that he supports U.S. President George W. Bush’s statements that Iraq poses a serious threat, and that he would support U.S. action against Iraq, according to the London Observer (see GSN, Feb. 8). 

Blair and Bush are scheduled to meet in April to discuss plans to overthrow Hussein, the Observer reported.

“The meeting will be to finalize Phase 2 of the war against terrorism,” said a senior British official.  “Action against Iraq will be at the top of the agenda.”

“The alliance with the United States is strong.  It will remain strong,” Blair said Saturday at a meeting with European leaders in Stockholm.  “We will deal with issues together.  The Americans are absolutely right to emphasize the continuing importance of the war against terrorism and continuing the elimination of weapons of mass destruction.”

Blair is facing growing opposition to action against Iraq within his own Labor Party, however, according to the Observer.  British intelligence officials have also expressed concern and said the only window of opportunity for a campaign against Iraq would be in the fall and winter of 2002.

Blair plans to publish evidence showing that Iraq is working to build or obtain simple nuclear capabilities and ways to use “dirty” radiological bombs in order to counter opposition to action against Iraq, the Observer reported (Kamal Ahmed, London Observer, Feb. 24).

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India-Pakistan:  Pakistan Predicts 400 Indian Nuclear Weapons, Expert Says

By Kerry Boyd
Global Security Newswire

Pakistani officials estimate India might have up to 400 nuclear weapons within 20 years, Feroz Hassan Khan, director of arms control and disarmament affairs at Pakistan’s Joint Services Headquarters, said Friday during a meeting at the Woodrow Wilson Center.

Pakistani officials project India will probably also have long-range missiles and sea-based forces, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles, according to Khan, currently a visiting scholar at the Wilson Center (see GSN, Feb. 11).

India may currently have enough nuclear material for 45 to 95 nuclear weapons, and Pakistan could have enough for 30 to 52 nuclear weapons, according to Carnegie Endowment for International Peace estimates.  The Institute for Science and International Security reports similar figures for both India and Pakistan.

To avoid an arms race, Khan said, Pakistan must find a way to maintain a credible deterrence force in the future without entering into an economically debilitating arms race, he said, noting that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf emphasized improving Pakistan’s economy in a Washington speech this month (see GSN, Feb. 13).

Two Paths for Pakistan

Pakistan may choose between two security paths — confrontational or cooperative — for its nuclear force and policy toward India, Khan said (see GSN, Feb. 19).

Some Pakistanis believe that India will never allow Pakistan to be a sovereign state, and that India will continue to create new problems as other problems are solved between the two states, Khan said.  That minority takes a confrontational approach, which would lead to an arms race, hair-trigger alert status, instability and a zero-sum game situation, he said.

Most Pakistanis, however, believe there is hope the two sides will resolve the issues that lie between them and someday achieve a stable peace, Khan said.  That majority wants to avoid an arms race and pursue cooperative security efforts, he said.

Action

To increase stability in the region, Pakistan and India, with U.S. help, must initiate efforts to revive trade, begin a conflict resolution process and place restraints on nuclear and conventional weapons, Khan said.  The three elements must be simultaneous, he said.

Restraints on weapons and reviving trade links —relatively simple steps — would support the more difficult conflict resolution process, he said.  The United States can help start the conflict resolution process by developing an interim agreement to de-escalate the current tense situation, Khan said.

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U.S.-Russia:  Companies Reach New HEU Deal

U.S. and Russian negotiators have reached an agreement in a long-running dispute over pricing terms for the U.S. purchase of uranium taken from Russian nuclear weapons, ITAR-Tass reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 11).

Under the new arrangement, worked out by the U.S. Enrichment Corp. and the Russian firm Techsnabexport, the price of Russian uranium will be flexible starting next year.  The price will be examined annually and adjusted based on the market situation, according to ITAR-Tass.  The new contract will be effective for 13 years, but the two firms will be able to review the pricing terms in 2007.

The U.S. and Russian governments are expected to support the new arrangement, ITAR-Tass reported.  Techsnabexport is expected to make a formal announcement on the new pricing terms today (Ivan Lebedev, ITAR-Tass, Feb. 24).

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United States I:  VA Expands Veterans Eligible for Compensation

The U.S. Veterans Affairs Department plans to allow more veterans to claim compensation for illnesses associated with nuclear weapons production, Cancer Weekly reported this week. The department is increasing the number of cancer types associated with radiation exposure and the number of “radiation-risk” activities, according to the Weekly.

Under the expanded list, veterans who have been involved in “radiation-risk” activities and are diagnosed with cancer of the bone, brain, colon, lung or ovary will be able more easily to claim compensation starting March 26, said Veterans Affairs Secretary Anthony Principi.

The list of “radiation-risk” activities has been expanded to include service at Amchitka Island, Ala., before 1974 if a veteran was exposed to radiation due to certain underground nuclear testing.  Service at gaseous diffusion plants in Paducah, Ky., Portsmouth, Ohio, and the K25 area at Oak Ridge, Tenn., is also included in the expanded definition.

“These veterans accepted the risks of duty and have borne the burden of their illnesses in service to our nation,” Principi said.  “They should not have to bear an additional and unequal burden to prove they deserve the benefits they’ve so rightfully earned” (Cancer Weekly, Feb. 19-Feb. 26).

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United States II:  Mound Site Cleanup Will be Accelerated

The U.S. Energy Department Friday announced the awarding of a new contract for accelerated cleanup of the Mound Site in Miamisburg, Ohio, outside of Dayton (see GSN, Feb. 1).

“The new contract will provide for the focused, streamlined and unambiguous pursuit of risk reduction to the workers and the public,” said Energy Department Assistant Secretary for Environmental Management Jessie Roberson.  “This is a goal for all” environmental management contracts, he said.

Workers at the Mound Site developed, manufactured and tested components for the U.S. nuclear weapons program.  In 1998, the Energy Department sold the Mound Site, except those facilities still being used in the space power program, to the Miamisburg Mound Community Improvement Corporation.  About 40 percent of the site has been transferred to the group so far (U.S. Energy Department release, Feb. 22).

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Anthrax:  FBI Might Have Target in Investigation

The FBI has focused its “Amerithrax” investigation on a former U.S. government scientist who has the training needed to conduct last fall’s anthrax attacks, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 22).

The scientist became the focus of the investigation after more than 300 interviews with people involved in the U.S. anthrax program, according to the newspaper’s sources, who included law enforcement authorities and biochemical experts familiar with the investigation.  No charges have been filed, they said.

Law enforcement authorities have identified the scientist from about 50 researchers who have the necessary expertise to conduct the attacks, the sources told the Times.  They added that the scientist is thought to have worked at the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md., and is now a contractor in the Washington area.

The FBI has known for more than three months that the person responsible for the anthrax attacks is a U.S. citizen and probably a former scientist involved with the U.S. biological weapons defense program, the Times sources said.  The FBI and the U.S. Postal Service have yet to publicly identify any suspects in the investigation (Jerry Seper, Washington Times, Feb. 25).

False Alarm at U.S. Army Facility in Atlanta

Laboratory tests conducted Saturday on a suspicious package found at a U.S. Army facility in Atlanta came back negative for anthrax, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  Initial field tests had registered positive, the newspaper reported.

“The definitive result is that it is not anthrax,” said Lisa Swenarski, spokeswoman for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which conducted the tests on the package.

A suspicious package had been found in a closet at the U.S. Army Reserve Command headquarters at Fort McPherson Friday evening, military officials said.  The package was a plastic bag that contained a white powder, said Joe Handly, a spokesman for Reserve Command Headquarters.

Officials at the Georgia Emergency Management Agency and the Georgia public health department’s bioterrorism unit Saturday said they had only heard about the suspicious package at Fort McPherson through media reports.  The Georgia Homeland Security Task Force will examine ways to improve communication for future incidents, said GEMA spokeswoman Lisa Ray.

“We did send someone last night when we first heard about it,” Ray said.  “Their response was that no assistance was required from us” (Martz/Plummer, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Feb. 24).

Blanco Returns to the Mailroom

Ernesto Blanco, the second victim of the anthrax attacks, last week returned to work at the mailroom of American Media Inc., now in a new building, according to CNN.com (see GSN, Oct. 25, 2001).

“I feel perfectly well, thank God,” said Blanco.  “I don’t have any discomfort or anything that you can associate with anthrax.  I feel the same I did before I became sick.”

Blanco, 74, went back to work at the Florida headquarters of AMI after spending 23 days in the hospital and four months recovering from the anthrax attack that killed AMI photo editor Bob Stevens (see GSN, Oct. 5, 2001).  Blanco recovered through the use of antibiotics such as Cipro, which he went off in early December, CNN.com reported. 

Blanco said he no longer is worried about anthrax, since his doctors told him he has built up antibodies in his blood.  While he is off antibiotics, Blanco still takes four other medicines a day, according to CNN.com.

“My doctor found no impediment to prevent me from working,” Blanco said.  “I decided not to keep being lazy, so I decided to go talk to the head of the company.  They were very amenable” (CNN.com, Feb. 24).

CDC Looking For New Director

One of the three CDC deputy directors will probably take control of the agency until a new director is found, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

David Fleming, Martha Katz and Virginia Shankle Bales are all being considered to become acting CDC director until a replacement is found for Jeffrey Koplan, according to the Journal-Constitution.  Koplan last week announced his resignation as CDC director effective at the end of March.

Public health experts weighed in on who should be considered as the next head of the CDC, one of the U.S. agencies responsible for a bioterrorism defense.

“Now more than ever, you want a public health professional,” said Tara O’Toole, director of the Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies at Johns Hopkins University.  “You need someone who knows how to do this.”

O’Toole said that the next CDC director would need to be able to work well with both U.S. President George W. Bush and Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson.

“President Bush has made a point of assembling a national security team and he will probably want and expect this person to be in that circle,” O’Toole said.

Koplan’s resignation leaves the CDC without a director at a time when several other public health posts go unfilled, said other experts.

“That is the biggest concern I have now,” said Thomas Milne, executive director of the National Association of City and County Health Officers.  “CDC absolutely needs to have a strong person at the helm and that needs to happen quickly.  I am not hearing any names that I can take seriously.”

When asked about potential replacements on Friday, Koplan said, “The next director needs to be a widely recognized, national public health leader” (M.A.J. McKenna, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Feb. 24).

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Italy:  Men May Have Planned Poison Gas Attack at U.S. Embassy, Reports Say

Four Moroccan men arrested last week in Rome might have been nearly ready to carry out a poison gas attack on the U.S. Embassy, according to reports yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 20).

Italian law enforcement officials said yesterday they had discovered an underground passage — which might have been part of a terrorist plot — cut into tunnels underneath the U.S. Embassy in Rome.

Although various sources have reported that a chemical found in the men’s apartment — potassium ferrocyanide — is harmless when mixed with water, it could have been turned into a lethal gas, a scientist said (see GSN, Feb. 21).  The men could have released the gas through tunnels under the city, ITAR-Tass reported.

“A toxic cloud would have formed and spread through the tunnels under the center of Rome,” said an expert.  “They might have reached the air conditioning units of the embassy and other buildings.”

Soon after the arrests, police and maintenance staff began examining water, electricity and gas tunnels under the embassy and found a hole cut into a wall near the embassy, according to ITAR-Tass.  Officials who examined the tunnels during a maintenance check in mid-January had found no evidence of any hole (Oleg Osipov, ITAR-Tass, Feb. 24).

Investigators said the hole was probably made after the mid-January maintenance check.  The Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reported that a ladder and a work uniform different than those used by utility workers were found in a section of the tunnel further away from the U.S. Embassy (Nicole Winfield, Associated Press, Feb. 24).

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