Threat Assessment I:  New Attack Likely, Cheney Says

A new terrorist attack against the United States “is almost certain,” although it could happen at any time, Vice President Dick Cheney said yesterday (see GSN, April 18).

Even though the U.S. war on terrorism has successfully disrupted some al-Qaeda operations, the chance of another attack is as good now as it was soon after the Sept. 11 attacks, Cheney said.

“The prospects of a future attack against the United States are almost certain,” he said yesterday on NBC’s Meet The Press.  “Not a matter of if, but when.”

On Fox News Sunday, he said “It could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week, it could happen next year, but they will keep trying.  And we have to be prepared” (Mike Allen, Washington Post, May 20).

Al-Qaeda Overheard

U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials have said that intelligence sources have intercepted a series of communications among al-Qaeda operatives that could signal plans for another attack — one as big or bigger than the Sept. 11 attacks, according to the New York Times.  The intercepted communications, however, offer no details about the time, place or method of any attack, the Times reported (see GSN, March 13).

The communications are similar to those intercepted last spring and summer when al-Qaeda operatives were discussing a big attack, according to the Times.  The amount of communications regarding another attack, possibly in Europe, the Middle East or the United States, has increased in the last month, said a senior administration official.

The United States has also interviewed captured al-Qaeda operatives about possible future plans, the Times reported.  Some of the details from those interviews provide general warnings of a future attack that correspond to threats detected in the intercepted communications, officials said.

Even with a disruption of al-Qaeda activities due to the war on terrorism and a large increase of resources to counterterrorism activities, U.S. officials said they still have little detail about any future al-Qaeda operations.

“There’s just a lot of chatter in the system again,” the senior administration official said.  “We are actively pursuing it and trying to see what’s going on here.”

U.S. intelligence officials said agents first intercepted al-Qaeda communications regarding another attack in October 2001.  There have been recurring discussions on another attack since then, they said.  The intercepted communications that began in October have led to the issue of at least five public FBI terrorist threat alerts since the Sept. 11 attacks (see GSN, Feb. 12).

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has made some changes to the ways terrorist threat information is disseminated and examined, officials said.  The CIA and FBI now share all terrorist threat information daily and analyze the information to determine the most credible threats, according to the Times.  Their daily threat report is distributed to all senior policy makers, including Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge.

President George W. Bush also receives daily CIA and FBI briefings, the Times reported.  CIA Director George Tenet and FBI Director Robert Mueller often attend the briefings so that each agency hears the other’s advice, according to the Times.  Before the Sept. 11 attacks, only the CIA briefed Bush (Risen/Johnston, New York Times, May 19).

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Threat Assessment II:  Countries to Remain on Terrorism Sponsors List

Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Cuba, Libya, Syria and Sudan will remain on the U.S. “state sponsors of terrorism” list in the annual Patterns of Global Terrorism report the State Department is expected to release tomorrow, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, April 2).

“There are no changes to the state sponsors list,” an official said.  The report does note, however, that Sudan has taken some steps to cooperate with U.S. counterterrorism efforts, officials said.

U.S. President George W. Bush said in January that Iran, Iraq and North Korea constitute an “axis of evil” and are trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Jan. 30).  Undersecretary of State John Bolton said earlier this month that Cuba, Syria and Libya (see GSN, May 15) are also working to develop weapons of mass destruction (Agence France-Presse, May 18).

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U.S. Response:  Water Supplies Take Security Measures

Officials have increased security around the Orlando, Fla., water supply system in response to a “vague” terrorist threat, the FBI said yesterday (see GSN, May 17).

The threat was received yesterday morning, said FBI Special Agent Wendy Evans.

“In an abundance of caution, to err on the side of getting out information to everyone — even though it is uncorroborated and vague — we decided to notify local authorities,” Evans said.

There is no evidence that the Orlando water supply has been contaminated, said Jim Solomons, spokesman for the Orange County Sheriff’s Office.  The Central Florida Regional Homeland Security Task Force met yesterday and decided to implement appropriate security measures in response to the threat, he said.

“You’re kind of damned if you do, damned if you don’t,” Solomons said.  “You don’t want to fall into the Chicken Little syndrome” (CNN.com, May 19).

New York Water System Vulnerable, Report Says

Meanwhile, a new report says the New York water supply system could be vulnerable to a terrorist attack using biological or chemical weapons, according to the Associated Press.

“I’m not trying to be an alarmist.  I’m not trying to create fear,” said Assemblyman Jeff Klein, chairman of the New York State Assembly Committee on Oversight, Analysis and Investigation, which created the report.  “I’m simply saying that something as important as the security of our water system has to be handled in a very, very careful manner.”

Released yesterday, the report indicates several security flaws in the New York water system, which provides water for 9 million people.  Security at water system facilities failed more than half of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and New York Health Department guidelines, according to the report.

None of the facilities inspected had security fencing that complied with regulations, the report says.  In some instances, fences had holes or were unlocked.  Some facilities had doors with hinges located on the outside of doors, where they could be removed, according to the report.  At two sites, inspectors were able to gain entrance and take photographs without being stopped, the report says.

One of the most alarming things is how easy it is to obtain maps and other information on water system facilities from public records and the Internet, Klein said.

The New York Environmental Protection Department has been working with federal and local agencies to improve the water system’s security since 1998, said department Chief of Staff Charles Sturcken.  The department has spent $35 million to improve security, he said.

“In fact, the federal EPA has told us we are years ahead of other municipal water systems,” Sturcken said (Lukas Alpert, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, May 20). 

No Terrorism in Connecticut Reservoir

The FBI has said the three men arrested on trespassing charges at a Connecticut reservoir Friday were not involved in any acts of terrorism, the Associated Press reported Friday (see GSN, May 17).

Instead, the three men had recently purchased a digital camera and were passing by the reservoir in Easton, said Michael Wolf, the top FBI agent in Connecticut.

“They drove by the reservoir.  They saw the reservoir.  It was beautiful scenery,” Wolf said.  “They had just acquired the camera and they were videotaping.”

The three men have been identified as 21-year-old Juned Ahmed Choudhury, 19-year-old Hassan Choudhury and 19-year-old Redwander Chowdhury, according to AP.  The FBI is confident that the three men were not involved in terrorist activity, Wolf said.  They have been released on their own recognizance, AP reported (Associated Press/Hartford Courant, May 17).

All three men have been charged with third degree criminal trespassing, a Class C misdemeanor, and are scheduled to appear in court June 5, according to the Hartford Courant.  Connecticut state authorities denied that the ancestry of the three men played in any part in their arrest.

“You had a report of three men trespassing on watershed property,” Wolf said.  “That’s going to get investigated regardless of ethnicity” (Dave Altimari, Hartford Courant, May 18).

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Iraq:  U.S. Prepares for WMD Contingency

Analysts and officials believe that the most complicated problem facing U.S. military planners preparing for a possible attack on Iraq is the risk that U.S. forces or allies might face chemical or biological weapons, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, May 3).

The risk of a chemical or biological attack “plays a huge role” in planning for a military strike, a senior military officer said, according to the Times.  Planning is underway, although officials have said U.S. President George W. Bush has not yet decided whether to strike militarily against the Iraqi regime.

U.S. military officials do not consider Iraq’s conventional forces a serious threat and are more concerned about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, the Times reported.

“Without question, it’s the toughest nut to crack,” the officer said.

Iraq’s arsenal probably includes sarin, VX gas, anthrax and botulism, said Charles Duelfer, former deputy chairman of the U.N. commission formerly responsible for weapons inspections in Iraq (see GSN, April 19).

Iraq’s possession of such weapons, however, would not deter the United States from attacking, senior military officials said.

A chemical or biological attack “wouldn’t stop the war,” said Walter Slocombe, former undersecretary of defense in the Clinton administration, adding that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would not win the war by using such weapons.  “But you’ve got to be ready for casualties,” he said.

More Likely Now Than in 1991

Although officials believed Iraq had chemical and perhaps biological weapons during the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq did not use them — possibly due to the threat of U.S. retaliation.

The current Bush administration, however, has made it clear that its goal is to remove Hussein from power (see GSN, May 7).  That changes the equation, analysts said.

“This time, once the tanks start rolling, Saddam knows they won’t stop until they reach Baghdad,” said Kenneth Pollack, a former official under the Clinton administration and now Council on Foreign Relations director for national security studies.  “He has no incentive for restraint.”

“In 1991, we weren’t going to Baghdad.  It’s different now,” Duelfer said.

Finding and Destroying the Weapons

Military planners are considering ways to destroy Iraq’s chemical and biological weapons stockpiles before beginning an invasion, military experts said.  Finding the stockpiles, however, is difficult.  Analysts believe Hussein stores the weapons in deeply buried bunkers, moving them around to avoid detection, the Times reported (see GSN, April 5).  Hussein might also store weapons near civilian areas to discourage an attack on the stockpiles that could result in high civilian casualties.

“We look, for example, today at terrorist states, and they are literally putting their weapons of mass destruction capability right next to schools and hospitals and mosques — purposely,” U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said during a Senate hearing last week.

Training Soldiers

Another way the U.S. military is preparing for a potential WMD attack is training soldiers to fight in conditions involving chemical or biological agents (see GSN, May 17).  No U.S. soldier currently serving has ever fought under such conditions, since no country has attacked U.S. troops with chemical weapons since World War I.  Fighting while wearing chemical protection suits is difficult, and chemical and biological weapons can have a serious psychological affect, military analysts said.

To address these problems, the U.S. Army trains 5,000 soldiers a year in chemical warfare at a specialized school at Fort Leonard Wood.  Soldiers at the school enter airtight chambers filled with enough nerve gas to kill several troops.  They learn how to face the fear of fighting under deadly conditions while wearing masks and chemical suits.

Most experts agree the United States is better prepared to deal with a chemical and biological attack on its forces today than a decade ago, according to the Times.

Defending Israel

In addition to the potential threat to U.S. forces, there is also concern Iraq could use chemical or biological weapons against Israel (see GSN, Feb. 5).  The United States is likely to send more antimissile systems to Israel (see GSN, May 7), and one proposal calls for forces to quickly seize western Iraq at the beginning of an invasion to reduce Iraq’s ability to launch Scud missiles against Israel, analysts said (James Dao, New York Times, May 19).

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Iran:  Sanctioned Moldovan Company Is Gone

A Moldovan company the United States sanctioned earlier this month for WMD-related transfers to Iran has been closed since last year and no longer exists, Moldovan officials said Friday (see GSN, May 16).

The United States imposed penalties on the Cuanta company — which produced radio control and tracing systems for ballistic missiles — for transferring WMD-related technologies to Iran, according to the Russian ITAR-Tass news agency.

The company was liquidated last year and turned into a state-run business, according to Moldovan officials.  The other sanctioned Moldovan entity, Mikhail Pavlovich Vladov, had headed Cuanta, the officials said, but they provided no further information (ITAR-Tass, May 18).

The United States believes that Moldovan firms allegedly involved in transfers to Iran “are run by Russian business people with close ties with high-ranking Moldovan officials,” Moldovan legislator Stefan Secareanu said, according to the Washington Times.

Chinese Transfers

Meanwhile, the Times reported further details today on several sanctioned Chinese entities (see GSN, May 17).  Some allegedly sold cruise missile components to Iran while others sold glass-lined equipment that can be used in chemical weapons, U.S. intelligence officials said (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, May 20).

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East Timor:  Treaties Approved on First Day of Independence

On its first day as an independent country after over 400 years of Portuguese colonial rule, 24 years of Indonesian military occupation and 2 1/2 years of U.N. transitional administration, East Timor’s Parliament ratified a host of international agreements, including the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Biological Weapons Convention (see GSN, April 30; Agencia EFE, May 20, GSN translation). 

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U.A.E. Response:  Officials Plan to Counter Chemical and Nuclear Attack

The United Arab Emirates released a plan Saturday outlining the responsibilities of various civilian and military institutions for responding to a nuclear or chemical attack on the Emirates or a neighboring country.

All institutions would be involved in an integrated response, and the Civil Defense would supervise actions in coordination with police and the army’s nuclear and chemical warfare units, Gulf News reported.

The plan calls for using underground shelters and stockpiling “protection systems” and “relief assistance.”  It also includes a measure to sound a siren to warn the public of a chemical or nuclear attack (Nadim Kawach, Gulf News, May 19).

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U.S.-Russia I:  U.S., Analysts Urge Increased Nonproliferation Efforts

The United States is urging the Group of Seven industrialized nations to provide $10 billion over the next decade to accelerate efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation in Russia, Reuters reported today (see GSN, May 3).

In an effort to secure nuclear materials vulnerable to terrorist groups, U.S. officials last month proposed a plan under which the United States would provide $10 billion for nonproliferation efforts if the rest of the G-7 provided a matching contribution over the next 10 years, according to Reuters.  Details are not complete yet.

U.S. officials want to announce the plan formally during the Group of Eight summit in Kananaskis, Canada, next month, Reuters reported (see GSN, May 14).

“There are lots of questions still hanging over this one, but the Americans are absolutely determined that an announcement be made in Kananaskis,” a diplomat said.

Of the G-7 countries, Germany and Canada support the plan, the United Kingdom and France like the idea but want more details and Italy and Japan have several concerns such as corruption in Russia and the cost, diplomats said.

“People feel there is enough money going to the Russians to fund nonproliferation efforts as it is, and they aren’t spending all of it.  If we give them even more, it won’t be that effective,” another G-7 diplomat said.

U.S. officials have also suggested G-7 countries forgive some Russian debt in return for Russian nonproliferation efforts.

The United States believes other G-7 countries are not contributing enough resources to nuclear nonproliferation programs in Russia, one official said.

“Everybody recognizes that, given the threat we have now of terrorists getting their hands on some of these weapons of mass destruction, that we really need to accelerate the programs.  The Bush administration believes this cannot be done unless we get more money into them,” the official said.

The plan might focus on decommissioning some Russian nuclear power stations and constructing a mixed-oxide plant to convert weapon-grade plutonium into fuel for civilian reactors (David Ljunggren, Reuters/Forbes, May 19).

Studies Urge Material Security

Meanwhile, two studies expected to be released today call on U.S. and Russian Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin to step up efforts to secure nuclear material, particularly at nuclear research reactor sites.  They call on the presidents to address the issue during their summit in Russia this week.

Harvard University’s Managing the Atom Project’s report and the Federation of American Scientists’ report identify civilian research reactors as one of the greatest unaddressed proliferation risks.  Universities often run the reactors, which often use or store weapon-grade uranium or plutonium.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, some former Soviet research reactors came under threat.  Abkhaz separatists overran one reactor and allegedly took two kilograms of highly enriched uranium, and scientists in Georgia report guarding a reactor with sticks and garden rakes, according to the Washington Post.  Few safeguards exist for such reactors.

Both the Harvard and FAS studies call on U.S. and Russian leaders to phase out using weapon-grade nuclear material at research reactors and replace the material with uranium that cannot be used in weapons.

The authors also call on the two presidents to take other measures to prevent the possibility terrorists could acquire such material.  They call for a dramatic increase in efforts to destroy or store tens of thousands of pounds of plutonium and uranium in the former Soviet Union.

Putin and Bush should each appoint an official to head efforts to improve nuclear security, said Matthew Bunn, co-author of the Harvard report.

The United States should also speed efforts to buy surplus Russian highly enriched uranium and convert it into fuel for Western commercial reactors, said Michael Levi, author of the FAS study.

The U.S. Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, designed to help safeguard and dismantle former Soviet weapons of mass destruction, has made “substantial” progress, Bunn said (see GSN, May 9).

“Terrorists appear to be working as hard as they can to get these materials,” he said.  “We need to be working as hard as we can to kept them from getting it” (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, May 20).

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U.S.-Russia II:  Treaty Ratification Not Automatic, Expert Says

Although the Russian Parliament will probably ratify the new U.S.-Russian arms reduction treaty to be signed in Moscow this week, the ratification will not be automatic, according to an Interfax report Saturday (see GSN, May 17).

“The ratification of the new document will pass more easily than that of START II, which took over seven years of hot and painful debates, but it is unlikely to be automatic,” said Alexander Pikayev, an expert on U.S.-Russian relations at the Moscow Carnegie Center.

Several Russian legislators have said they would ratify the treaty only after the U.S. Congress has done so, Pikayev said (see GSN, May 3).  The treaty is not a true disarmament agreement because it does not contain any details about the reduction of delivery systems, he added.

“The draft document, unlike START I, does not require that the sides dispose of means of delivery to be reduced, namely ballistic missiles and heavy bombers,” Pikayev said.  “This treaty cannot be considered truly that of a disarmament nature.”

The new treaty, however, does not place new restrictions on Russia’s ability to develop its nuclear force, he said.  With the new treaty replacing START II, Russia would still be allowed to maintain ICBMs equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads, which would have been outlawed under START II, Pikayev said.

“At the present negligible rate of manufacturing new systems, Moscow could not maintain over 2,000 warheads in 10 years anyway,” he said.  “Agreement or no agreement” (Interfax, May 18).

Treaty Will Not Reduce R-36 Missiles

Russia has more than 150 SS-18 ICBMs, a number that will not be reduced by the new treaty, according to a senior Russian defense official (see GSN, May 17).

Russia has 154 SS-18s, said Col. Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, first deputy chief of the Russian Army’s General Staff.  Russia’s quantity of SS-18s was set in START I and Russia has no plans to destroy any more, Baluyevsky said (Ostanin/Konovalov, ITAR-Tass, May 18).

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Russia:  Treaty Might Lead to More Conventional Cruise Missiles

The new U.S.-Russian arms reduction treaty probably will lead to increased Russian efforts to convert segments of its cruise missile arsenal to conventional-warhead use, Aviation Week & Space Technology reported this week (see GSN, May 14).

One cruise missile Russia has been working to convert is its Kh-55 air-launched cruise missile, according to Aviation Week.  In its place, Russia has worked to develop the Kh-555, which is based on the Kh-55, but replaces a nuclear warhead with a conventional one.  Russia has already conducted flight tests of the Kh-555 and received 600 Kh-55 missiles from Ukraine, which will act as a stock for the new Kh-555 inventory, according to Aviation Week.

Russia has also worked to develop a successor to its Kh-101 and Kh-102 missiles, Aviation Week reported.  Early attempts failed, however, to refit the Kh-101 with an improved propulsion system, Aviation Week reported (Douglas Barrie, Aviation Week & Space Technology, May 20).

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United States:  Energy Cancels DT-22 Plutonium Shipping Containers

The U.S. Energy Department has canceled a plan to ship plutonium from the Rocky Flats former nuclear weapons plant in Colorado in untested DT-22 containers, AScribe Newswire reported Friday (see GSN, May 9).

Assistant Energy Secretary for Environmental Management Jessie Roberson informed the head of the department’s Rocky Flats field office about the cancellation, according to AScribe.  Even though the containers have not been certified for use in shipping plutonium, Energy had given itself a national security exemption to use them.  Roberson’s memo cancels that decision, Ascribe reported.

“The DOE’s reversal is good news and represents an important win for public health and the environment,” said Marylia Kelley, executive director of Tri-Valley Communities Against a Radioactive Environment, which had filed suit against Energy over the plan (Ascribe Newswire, May 17).

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CTBT:  Venezuela Ratifies Treaty

Venezuela ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty last week (see GSN, April 22).  Two auxiliary seismological stations, part of the International Monitoring System, are located in Venezuela.  To date, 165 nations have signed the treaty and 92 have ratified it, including 31 of the 44 nations whose ratifications are necessary for the treaty to enter into force (CTBTO release, May 17).

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United States:  Pentagon Denies Biological Weapon Charge

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A U.S. military special weapons office is denying accusations it is seeking to develop biological agents that attack military equipment and material, but not personnel. 

Such agents are banned by U.S. law, experts said.

The Joint Nonlethal Weapons Directorate — created in 1997 under Marine Corps command to recommend, develop and field nonlethal weapons research and development for the U.S. armed services — last year asked the National Academy of Sciences to study new nonlethal technologies and included two controversial proposals in its request — Navy and Air Force proposals to develop offensive, anti-materials biocatalysts.

Anti-material biocatalysts are microorganisms that can rapidly degrade certain materials as metals, fuels, paving materials and synthetic products.  Military research already has been underway for using such organisms in nonoffensive purposes such as degrading paint on ships and aircraft and neutralizing environmental toxic spills.

Offensive research could violate the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention, which some experts said can be interpreted to ban all forms of offensive biological agents, whether harmful to humans or not.

Furthermore, the research would certainly violate the U.S. Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989, according to Edward Hammond, co-director of the Sunshine Project, a nongovernmental organization working to prevent the use of biotechnology advances to develop new weapons.  The act provides for strict penalties, including life imprisonment, for development, production or use of “any biological agent, toxin or delivery system for use as a weapon.”

No Such Research Considered

“We have no work going on in either area,” wrote directorate head Col. G.P. Fenton in an e-mail to Global Security Newswire, referring to agents for use against equipment or as sensors.

In written answers to questions, the directorate said it had received unsolicited proposals from other military offices for funding to conduct research on such agents and has rejected them.

“The directorate has and will continue to decline considering these proposals as they do not represent the types of nonlethal technology deemed appropriate to the directorate’s mission,” it said in an e-mailed statement.

The Air Force and Navy laboratories proposed developing the microorganisms for offensive uses, such as against runway and road surfaces, metal parts, coatings, lubricants and fuels of vehicles, weapons and equipment.  “Vaccinations” would be needed to prevent harm to friendly equipment.

“The application of this technology is limitless.  Catalysts can be engineered to destroy whatever war material is desired,” said the Air Force proposal.

The directorate said in its statement it “has not and will not” solicit proposals involving anti-material biocatalysts or sensors, but added, “it is not unusual however for the directorate to receive unsolicited proposals based on biological research.”

Legal Questions

Asked whether it believes the Biological Weapons Convention and U.S. law allow offensive anti-material biocatalyst work, the directorate responded:

“The tenets of the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989 are clear. Neither the United States Marine Corps nor the Joint Nonlethal Weapons Directorate believe that any research that deviates from strict adherence to the guidelines set forth in the act is appropriate.”

In 1997, a U.S. Navy deputy assistant judge advocate general issued a legal review that offensive use of nonlethal anti-material biocatalysts would violate the convention.

“They say that they know it’s illegal, and if they know it is illegal, why on earth are they continuing to promote the technology by continuing to distribute information about it and ask the National Academy of Sciences to study a proposal for development of illegal biological weapons?” asked Hammond.

“Why did they send it to NAS to examine? It makes no sense to send information on an illegal technology,” said Hammond, who suspects the directorate might be hoping for “NAS to give a green light” to begin work on it.

The Proposals

Marine Corps Public Affairs Spokesman Capt. Shawn Turner, who serves as a spokesman for the directorate, said sending the documents to the National Academy of Sciences did not indicate the directorate is considering the technologies.

“When the Nonlethal Weapons Directorate went to NAS to ask for an assessment — I guess an audit for lack of a better term — both proposals that had been solicited and unsolicited, everything that had been discussed went to the NAS, that was just for a complete and thorough assessment,” he said.

Referring to the many documents sent to the NAS, he said, “If you look at those documents, you’ll see that there are all kinds of ideas in those documents and the Nonlethal Weapons Directorate director just passed it all to the NAS … There is lots of stuff in there that will never be acted upon.”

The cache of documents, including the two proposals, was pulled from public inspection earlier this year, pending a security review, according to Turner.

The National Academy of Sciences report is due for release late this month at the earliest, NAS staffers said.

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Smallpox:  WHO Drops Virus Stock Destruction Deadline

World Health Organization member states decided Saturday to drop a deadline this year for the destruction of smallpox virus stocks, citing concerns that bioterrorism could necessitate research on a new vaccine from the almost extinct disease (see GSN, Jan. 18).

Countries at the organization’s latest World Health Assembly session, which wrapped up this weekend, approved a measure first submitted in January to the WHO Executive Board by Executive Director Gro Harlem Brundtland (see GSN, May 13).  They agreed to halt plans to destroy stocks of the virus now held at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and a Russian research center in Siberia.

“We regard the potential release of smallpox as a critical national security issue, not only for us, but for the entire world,” said U.S. Assistant Surgeon General Kenneth Bernard.

The Chinese WHO delegation had previously expressed opposition to the move, saying the continued existence of the virus posed a global threat.  They reversed their position, however, on the condition that a new date for the destruction of the virus be set soon (Jonathan Fowler, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, May 19).  Under the measure adopted Saturday, the body will review the issue no later than 2005.

While existing vaccines for smallpox played the leading role in stamping out the once-prevalent disease, immunization can be fatal in a small number of cases and cannot be administered to people with weakened immune systems, such as those with HIV/AIDS or recent organ transplant recipients (Reuters/CNN.com, May 18).

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U.S. Response:  Disease Monitoring Worked Well at Olympics, Experts Say

The 2002 Winter Olympics and Paralympic Winter Games in Salt Lake City provided a good test for the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance system, an information tracking system used to detect the initial stages of a biological attack, NewsRx.com reported today (see GSN, Feb. 26).

“If you’ve got a lot of people in the community getting sick at the same time with the same thing, this system will see it,” said Per Gesteland, a physician at the University of Utah.

“This sort of system is essential as an early detector for bioterrorist events,” said Reed Gardner, chairman of medical informatics at the University of Utah.

The system twice detected unusual activity during the two sporting events, according to NewsRx.com (see GSN, Feb. 6).  The first occurred midway through the Olympics, when the system detected that the number of viral infections reached seven in one county that hosted the games, Morgan County.  The alarm level for viral infections per day for Morgan County was 6.69, NewsRx.com reported.

The second incident occurred near the end of the Paralympics, when the system detected 33 incidents of patients seeking treatment for bleeding in the seven Utah counties monitored by the system.  The expected number of cases typically was 29.34, according to NewsRx.com. 

In each of the two incidents, the system alerted Gesteland, Utah State Epidemiologist Robert Rolfs and the system’s developers at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, NewsRx.com reported.  When alerted, Gesteland examined details and then consulted with the system technical advisory group, a panel of state and local public health officials.

If there had been a real biological weapons attack, the panel would have had to report within two hours to a policy advisory group, which then would have had to devise a plan of action, according to NewsRx.com.  After examining information provided by the system, however, Gesteland was able to determine that both events were false alarms, according to NewsRx.com.

Gesteland is attempting to obtain funding to keep the system, which is still operational, running on a permanent basis and to expand its information-gathering capabilities (NewsRx.com, May 20).

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Anthrax I:  Potency Differences Do Not Indicate Pattern, FBI Says

The FBI criticized the New York Times Saturday for attacking the bureau’s handling of the investigation into last fall’s anthrax attacks (see GSN, May 7).

“Far from ‘bureaucratic bungling,’ this complex investigation represents a case study in cooperation between the scientific community and government agencies,” John Collingwood, assistant director of the FBI Office of Public and Congressional Affairs, said in a letter to editor of the Times.  His letter was written in response to a May 11 Times editorial on the investigation.

Collingwood also disputed the Times’ claims that the anthrax used in last fall’s attacks became increasingly potent as the attacks progressed.  Although there were differences in the anthrax mailed to media organizations in New York and to members of the U.S. Senate, there were no significant differences in the anthrax mailed to individual senators, he said.  The FBI also has not narrowed its investigation down to one type of suspect or motive, Collingwood said (John Collingwood, New York Times, May 18).

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Anthrax II:  Pentagon Likely to Drop Vaccine Requirement, Officials Say

The U.S. Defense Department probably will abandon its policy of vaccinating all U.S. soldiers against anthrax and instead will vaccinate only those considered at high risk, officials said Friday (see GSN, May 15).

Vaccine shortages and reluctance by some soldiers to be vaccinated prompted Pentagon officials to re-examine the military anthrax vaccination program, according to the Associated Press.  Defense officials have looked at intelligence assessments, dose requirements and national security considerations when re-evaluating the anthrax vaccination plan, said Jim Turner, Pentagon spokesman on health issues.

After a three-month study on the issue, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld last month approved a new plan to only vaccinate those at high risk, according to Pentagon officials who have seen the plan.  The change in policy was supposed to be announced two weeks ago, but was delayed because of concerns over vaccine shortages for the general public, AP reported.

The Pentagon is not expected to say which soldiers will fall into the high-risk category because of security reasons, officials said.  The idea is that attackers using biological weapons would not know who had been vaccinated against anthrax and who had not, according to AP.

Civilian Response

The U.S. Homeland Security Office is still determining how much anthrax vaccine would be needed for first responders — police, fire fighters and emergency personnel who would respond to a biological attack, AP reported.  The number of U.S. first responders is estimated at 2 million, officials said There is no need for the general U.S. public to be vaccinated against anthrax, health officials said (Pauline Jelinek, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, May 18).

The Pentagon has created an initial plan on forming an interagency working group with the Homeland Security Office on the anthrax vaccine, but there are still unanswered questions as to civilian use, said Homeland Security Office sources.

“It is not clear whether first responders will need the vaccine,” said a Homeland Security Office source.  “Issues are being looked at, and no decisions have been made” (Guy Gugliotta, Washington Post, May 20).

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Japanese Response:  Military Prepares to Respond to Terror at World Cup

The Japanese military is prepared to respond to any terrorist acts during the World Cup, to be cohosted with South Korea May 31-June 30 (see GSN, May 7).

In the event of a biological or chemical terrorist attack, the military is ready to deploy 800 members of a special anti-chemical weapons unit, the Japanese Asahi newspaper reported, according to the Associated Press.  Planes with AWACS early warning radar are also ready to monitor no-fly zones near the stadiums.

More than 430,000 soccer fans are expected to attend the event (Associated Press/Yahoo.com, May 18).

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Radiological Weapons:  Ireland Orders Iodine Pills

Ireland plans to distribute iodine tablets to 2.1 million Irish homes starting next month, in case terrorists attack England’s Sellafield nuclear complex (see GSN, Feb. 19).

Iodine tablets can help prevent absorption of radioactive iodine (see GSN, March 21).

Defense Minister Michael Smith ordered rapid production and delivery of the pills to make up for low supplies (Andrew Bushe, Sunday Mirror, May 19).

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