U.S. Response I:  U.S. Must Consolidate Intelligence, Ridge Says

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Despite recent FBI changes to improve anti-terrorism capabilities, the United States requires a new, centralized system for analyzing intelligence and distributing it to federal agencies for action, Office of Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge said yesterday in a meeting with National Journal Group staff (see GSN, April 18).

“I believe that FBI Director Bob Mueller took a very significant step in that direction to enhance the analytical capacity within the FBI,” Ridge said (see GSN, May 30).

“I still believe, however, that there is more work that needs to be done with regard to the analysis of information from a variety of intelligence sources in this country, and there are multiple sources.  The FBI happens to be one of the most significant, if not the most significant, domestic source,” he said.

Critics have targeted U.S. anti-terrorism capabilities recently for failing to “connect the dots” between various pieces of information — to draw conclusions and have them acted upon to prevent the Sept. 11 attacks.

“What is needed, urgently, is a way for the potpourri of information available to the government — including assessments of our infrastructure's vulnerabilities, foreign intelligence, law enforcement material, and the hunches of FBI agents and academic analysts — to be pulled together in one place and assessed by people with [a] sixth sense,” former CIA director R. James Woolsey wrote in a May 21 commentary in the Wall Street Journal.

Woolsey concluded that the task must be done in the White House and “the most obvious place to focus it would be in Tom Ridge’s Homeland Security office.”

Ridge said his office, as part of its mandate, has been actively reviewing the idea of creating such a capability and is planning recommendations as it prepares to provide the president with a national counterterrorism strategy.

Ridge said he does not believe, however, that his office would be appropriate for the job.

“I don’t believe we should ever have that, or will ever have that capacity within the Office of Homeland Security as it is set up as an advisory [body] to the president of the United States,” he said.  “There’s limited staff, limited capability.”

Intelligence Structure Changes

Mueller announced Wednesday that the FBI is reorganizing its resources to drastically increase focus on preventing terrorism, including plans to hire 900 new specialists intended to improve the bureau’s intelligence-gathering and analytical capabilities.

Separately, Attorney General John Ashcroft yesterday announced a controversial revision to FBI regulations, allowing officials to collect intelligence by monitoring institutions and activities without first providing evidence of potential criminal activity.

The FBI and the CIA reportedly have stepped up cooperation on intelligence sharing since the attacks.  Ridge also said federal agencies have been increasingly sharing intelligence with state and local authorities.

Steven Aftergood, a senior research analyst at the Federation of American Scientists, however, said such developments are insufficient to address U.S. intelligence needs for addressing the terrorism threat.

Civilian U.S. intelligence agents generally remain structured on a pyramid model where information is collected by many agencies and funneled to the most senior federal policymakers, Aftergood said.

He suggested creating a new model resembling a “web” or a “net” through which “many people would have access to the relevant information, rather than simply a few decision-makers at the top.”

“The president and senior policymakers run the country only in the most superficial sense.  In reality it is run by many thousands of people doing many different kinds of jobs in many places and all of them need access to good information,” he said.

“They are dealing with this stuff on sort of a patchwork basis … trying to adapt the existing system, to try to make it do what needs to be done.  And that may just be too hard,” he said.

Ridge, for his part, appears to see a need for adding such a new capability to old ones.

“We still don’t have a common gathering place where we can process more of the information and try to fuse it at the national level.  So while the FBI has made a great step, a significant step forward, there is additional work that needs to be done,” he said.

Back to top

U.S. Response II:  Greece Refuses Requests for Ship Inspections

Greece Wednesday refused a U.S. request to allow U.S. inspectors to inspect ships sailing in Greek territorial waters (see GSN, May 23).

“After (Foreign Minister) Georgios Papandreou examined the American request he said (that) for constitutional reasons and reasons of protection of national sovereignty, it cannot be accepted,” said Greek spokesman Christos Protopapas.

Greece would be willing to carry out its own inspections of ships if and when they are needed, Protopapas said.  The United States has asked other nations in the region for permission to inspect ships in the Aegean and Ionian seas (Reuters/Business Recorder, May 30).

Back to top

U.S. Response:  FDA Alters Rules to Speed Medical Treatments

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration yesterday announced a new rule to help speed development of drugs designed for treating illnesses related to an attack with biological, chemical or radiological weapons (see GSN, April 17).

In some circumstances, the rule would allow companies assessing the effectiveness of a drug to base evaluations solely on tests on animals, the Washington Post reported.  Previously, applicants have been required to test new drugs in human trials before the FDA would allow them to be marketed.

The new rule would only apply when human testing of the new drug would be considered unethical.  Because it is considered unethical to expose test subjects to potentially lethal or disabling agents, it is nearly impossible to test a drug’s effectiveness against WMD agents in humans, according to the Post.

The FDA’s use of the new rule would be limited, said Janet Woodcock, director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research.  In a majority of applications, pharmaceutical companies would still have to demonstrate that their new drugs are safe for human use, Woodcock said.  Such a determination can often be done without exposing test subjects to risks that could be considered unethical, she added.

The FDA has had difficulties encouraging medical companies to move forward on treatments for WMD agents, Woodcock said.

“When they couldn’t ethically do human trials, it has been very difficult to move forward,” she said.  “This rule addresses that obstacle.”

Pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry spokesmen welcomed the new FDA rule yesterday.

“This is a very important and valuable development because it offers some consistent rules for how products will be evaluated,” said Michael Friedman of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America.

“That’s been the big difficulty for years.  You have diseases that are untestable in humans,” he said.  “There are medicines out there that we have every expectation would be effective against anthrax ... but there’s been no consistent way to test them” (Marc Kaufman, Washington Post, May 31).

Might Not Speed Development

The new FDA rule, however, does not solve all the problems with testing new drugs designed to counter WMD agents, Friedman said.  There are often long waits at the small number of laboratories that are allowed to test lethal agents on animals and there are some biological agents for which there are no animals that can be used for testing, he said.

A shortage of research monkeys to be used in tests is another problem, said Charles Bailey, a former commander of the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md.  U.S. officials are examining ways to address the monkey shortage, he said (see GSN, Jan. 24).

The small likelihood of an attack using biological, chemical or radioactive agents could also lower the incentive for drug companies to develop treatments, according to the New York Times.

“This is a niche market,” said Frank Young, director of the pharmaceutical company EluSys Therapeutics.

Pentagon Benefits Most

The U.S. Defense Department, more than any pharmaceutical or biotechnology company, could be the biggest beneficiary from the new FDA rule, the Times reported.  The Pentagon has already expressed interest in obtaining FDA approval for a drug that has been shown to allow mice to survive lethal doses of radiation.  The U.S. Army also has several vaccines designed to protect against biological agents that have never been given approval but instead are used as experimental drugs to protect military researchers who handle deadly pathogens, according to the Times.

“Now both the civilian population and the military population will be able to get these products out in a straightforward fashion,” said Arthur Anderson, USAMRIID chief ethics officer (Pollack/Broad, New York Times, May 31).

Back to top

Russian Export Controls:  WMD Violators to Face New Penalties

Russia adopted several amendments to its criminal code this month to toughen punishments for violations of export laws related to weapons of mass destruction, the Foreign Affairs Ministry announced yesterday (see GSN, May 17).

A new code that will enter into force July 1 will apply penalties for exporting dual-use goods and technologies in violation of Russian law, the ministry said.

“Thus, acting in its national security interests, Russia is once again strikingly demonstrating its firm and consistent commitment to nonproliferation, backing its principled line by concrete moves in national legislation and the practice of law application,” the ministry said (Russian Foreign Ministry release, May 30).

Back to top

India-Pakistan:  United Nations Can Do Little, Analysts and Officials Say

U.N. officials and analysts have said the United Nations probably will not meet Pakistan’s request for more involvement in the current Kashmir crisis, RFE/RL news service reported yesterday (see GSN, May 30).

As tensions between India and Pakistan increased, Pakistan last week sent a letter to the U.N. Security Council president asking that the council make more effort to resolve the dispute.  The council has issued no formal response to the letter.

Pakistani Ambassador to the United Nations Munir Akram also proposed Wednesday that the U.N. observer force patrolling part of the line of control should expand to help settle Indian accusations that Pakistan assists militants crossing into India.

“At present there are 35 observers,” Akram said.  “We have proposed that these should be substantially augmented in order to be able to effectively monitor the line of control and to see whether the Indian charges are right or not.”

India has opposed any expansion, saying it is ineffective.  Indian officials do not recognize the force, which, they have said, ended its mandate when India and Pakistan signed an agreement in 1972 that included an understanding that the two countries would work to resolve disputes bilaterally.

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has said the U.N. force cannot end its mission without a Security Council decision (Robert McMahon, RFE/RL, May 30).

U.N. observers, meanwhile, have visited Pakistani villages damaged by Indian shelling (Dawn, May 31).

Beyond the observer force, there is little that the United Nations can do to intervene in the region, senior U.N. officials said yesterday.

“With India fiercely against intervention, there has been no response from the Security Council, and without their response, what can the U.N. do?” said one official (Steven Edwards, National Post, May 31).

Akram said the council has a responsibility to deal with the conflict.

“Whenever there is a threat to international peace and security, there is an automatic obligation which arises for the Security Council to address that situation, and that is an obligation which we believe the Security Council cannot, in this context, escape,” he said.

Others Can Do More

Major world powers would probably have more success in resolving current tensions than the United Nations would, said David Malone, president of the International Peace Academy.  The United Nations would probably be willing to become involved if both countries were ready to resolve disputes somewhat amicably, he said, “but until these two powerful parties come to their senses, there’s not much point in the United Nations trying to do anything.”

While the United Nations stays mostly removed from the increasing tensions, Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to mediate talks between India and Pakistan during a regional summit in Kazakhstan next week.  Pakistan has accepted the offer, but India has refused to hold talks until it believes Pakistan is making serious efforts to stop militant infiltration across the line of control.

U.S. Intervention

Other world leaders are also taking action.  British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw met with Pakistani and Indian officials this week.  U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has been in telephone contact with both sides, and other top U.S. officials are planning trips to the region.

Malone added that the United States must maintain an active role in working to de-escalate the situation (McMahon, RFE/RL magazine).

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is scheduled to arrive in the region Thursday, following the summit in Kazakhstan, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is expected to travel to the area following Armitage’s visit.

U.S. President George W. Bush called on both countries yesterday to de-escalate but placed particular emphasis on Pakistan’s responsibility to stop militant attacks against India’s part of Kashmir.

“We are making it very clear to both Pakistan and India that war will not serve their interests,” Bush said, adding that the United States expects Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to “live up to his word” to stop militant attacks.

Powell also said yesterday that the United States is “pressing President Musharraf very hard to cease all infiltration activities on the part of terrorist organizations across the line of control, and we are asking the Indians to show restraint” and to de-escalate once infiltration has ended.

The United States has offered to share intelligence with Pakistan and India to reduce the danger of miscalculations that could lead to nuclear war.  Such information might include what type of warheads each country is loading on its missiles, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The United States, however, has “no desire to make ourselves the mediator,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said yesterday.  U.S. presidential administrations have generally said India and Pakistan should solve the Kashmir issue bilaterally, according to the Times (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, May 31).

The U.S. State Department today authorized its nonemergency personnel to leave India, saying conditions along the Pakistan-India border have deteriorated “and the risk of intensified military hostilities between India and Pakistan cannot be ruled out” (see GSN, May 23).

The United States had already cut its staff at the embassy in Pakistan due to concerns militants would target Americans for attacks (Reuters/Yahoo.com, May 31).

British Intervention

In a message to Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee this week, Musharraf promised to crack down on militants, Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes said yesterday.  Straw carried the message, and he “conveyed the stated intention of Mr. Musharraf that within a certain period, the cross-border terrorism would come to a halt,” Fernandes said.

“Musharraf, during his recent meeting with Jack Straw, assured him that Pakistan is a responsible country and will further beef up security at the borders to prevent infiltration to India’s part of Kashmir,” Pakistani Information Minister Nisar Memon said.

Assessing Nuclear Threat

Despite a statement from Pakistan’s ambassador to the United Nations saying Pakistan would not promise to avoid using nuclear weapons first, Fernandes yesterday criticized Pakistani and Western analysts and officials for expressing concerns that the current conflict might escalate to nuclear war (see GSN, May 28).

“I don’t want to take it very seriously,” Fernandes said.  “I want to believe that despite the kinds of statements that emanate from Gen. Musharraf, he understands what exactly a nuclear bomb can do for Pakistan.”

“I am sure he doesn’t want to kill all Pakistanis.  I don’t think even the people of Pakistan will allow him to do that,” Fernandes said.

Fernandes also criticized Western leaders for advising India on how to deal with its nuclear weapons.

“Bombs are safe in our hands,” he said (Neelesh Misra, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, May 30).

Pakistan: No Further Missile Tests

Meanwhile, Pakistani Ambassador to Japan Touqir Hussain said today that after conducting several missile tests last weekend, Pakistan has no plans for more missile tests (Kyodo News Service/BBC Monitoring, May 31).

India Says Al-Qaeda in Pakistani Kashmir

A large number of al-Qaeda operatives have moved into Pakistan’s portion of Kashmir and joined militants there, Indian defense officials said today.  Some of the militants are operating close to the line of control, according to Reuters (Reuters/Yahoo.com, May 31).

For further information, see:

Stimson Center Background on Kashmir

Pakistani Government

Indian Government

Carnegie Endowment World Missile Chart

Back to top

U.S.-Russia I:  Abraham Selects Members of Joint Working Groups

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham yesterday announced the U.S. members of two U.S.-Russian joint working groups on nuclear nonproliferation efforts (see GSN, May 28).

John Gordon, administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, will lead the U.S. delegation to the working group that will focus on ways to reduce excess plutonium and weapon-grade uranium.  Ambassador Linton Brooks, head of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Office, will assist Gordon in the group, which will have six months to present findings.

Energy Undersecretary Robert Card will head the U.S. delegation to a second working group of technical experts who will examine new areas of research on nuclear reactor designs and fuel cycle technologies to reduce stockpiles of fissile materials (see GSN, April 16).  The group will have 60 days to present its recommendations.  William Magwood, Energy’s director of nuclear energy, has been named to assist Card.

“We look forward to working with our Russian partners to eliminate excess weapons material and safeguard against nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism,” Abraham said in a press release.  “There is no higher priority in my department than the success of the nuclear nonproliferation programs” (U.S. Energy Department release, May 30).

Back to top

U.S.-Russia II:  Communist Leader Says Putin Rolled Over

Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed U.S. President George W. Bush to “walk all over him and gave in on everything,” Russian Communist party leader Gennady Zyuganov said yesterday, continuing his criticism of the new U.S.-Russian treaty on nuclear weapons reductions (see GSN, May 17).

The treaty calls for both countries to reduce their nuclear warheads over the next 10 years to between 1,700 and 2,200 each (see GSN, May 30).

“The Russian-American treaty has effectively destroyed the Russian nuclear shield,” Zyuganov said.

Zyuganov also criticized the new NATO-Russia council, which gives Russia greater say in NATO decisions (see GSN, May 29).  The new council is actually a sign of “increasing aggression,” he said.

Zyuganov criticized Putin for making concessions without receiving anything in return from the West.

“Putin has given everything up — military bases, markets, land — while the West has not made a single concession,” he said.

Russia has allowed U.S. troops into Central Asia and approved privatization for farmland, but the European Union refuses to change the status of the Russian enclave Kaliningrad, and the United States has not abolished the Jackson-Vanik amendment that withholds favorable trade tariffs from Russia, he said (Agence France-Presse, May 30).

For further information, see:

Moscow Treaty Text

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Arms Reduction Treaty

Back to top

NPT:  Czech Senate Approves Treaty Protocol

The Czech Senate yesterday approved an additional protocol to its safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (see GSN, May 10).

The protocol expands the IAEA’s powers to monitor uranium mining and processing to prevent uranium use for nuclear weapons, Czech news agency CTK reported (CTK/BBC Monitoring, May 30).

For further information, see:

NPT Text

NPT Parties

U.N. Background on NPT

Model Additional Protocol

Back to top

U.S. Response:  Legislation Relaxes Proposed Research Rules

New regulations passed by the U.S. Congress last week on research conducted with biological weapons agents are less restrictive than draft versions offered soon after last fall’s anthrax attacks, Science reported this week (see GSN, May 24).

“Congress did a good job of providing clarity to researchers about their responsibilities,” said George Leventhal, a lobbyist with the Association of American Universities.

The Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act would require laboratories to increase security, government registration and background checks for researchers who work with one of the more than 35 biological weapons agents, according to Science.  The bill would also provide more funding for new research, improving laboratories and for developing better tracking systems.

The final version of the legislation addresses complaints from scientists about earlier versions, which would have blocked all non-U.S. citizens from working with biological weapons agents.  The final bill instead avoids an outright ban on research conducted by foreign scientists and would give the Health and Human Services Department some flexibility in setting different levels of security for different agents.

Under the new bill, the Agriculture Department would be required to create its own list of biological agents that could be used against agricultural targets.  The legislation would also require the two departments to create realistic regulatory schedules to minimize disruptive effects on current research, according to Science.  The bill, which allows a six-month timeline for enacting the new rules, would require “prompt” screening of researchers working with certain agents and would also provide an appeals process (David Malakoff, Science, May 31).

Back to top

Anthrax:  Military to Share Vaccine With Civilians

The U.S. Defense Department will probably distribute most of its anthrax vaccine supply to U.S. civilians, a Pentagon official said yesterday (see GSN, May 20).

The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have heightened the need to be able to protect the U.S. civilian population against the possibility of a biological weapons attack, which is why most of the U.S. military’s anthrax vaccine supply will be set aside for civilian use, said David Chu, defense undersecretary for personnel and readiness.  Only those U.S. troops considered most at risk, such as researchers who handle anthrax samples and Special Forces units, will be given the vaccine initially, he said.

“While we are still debating the details, what I think you will see in the end is, we will set aside a major part of what vaccine is available to be sure that we can protect the civil population of the United States,” Chu said.  “I don’t want to start any rumors here.  We’re not going to vaccinate the whole population” (Robert Burns, Associated Press/Philadelphia Inquirer, May 31).

Back to top

Cuba:  Havana Refutes U.S. Claims at U.N. Conference

During yesterday’s meeting of the U.N. Conference on Disarmament, Cuba again denied U.S. allegations that it is developing a limited offensive biological weapons program and transferring weapon technology to rogue states (see GSN, May 24).

“The government of the United States had lied, once again, when accusing Cuba of carrying out a limited offensive work of investigation and development of biological war,” said Cuban representative Jorge Ivan Mora Godoy.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has said Cuba does not possess biological weapons, Mora Godoy said.  The products of Cuba’s biotechnology industry are available in more than 40 countries and all technology transfers have been governed by agreements that establish only peaceful use, he added.

Sherwood McGinnis, the U.S. representative at the conference, criticized Cuba for its harsh tone.  Cuba’s attitude makes it difficult to create a dialogue, he said (U.N. release, May 30).

Back to top

BWC:  Czech Senate Approves Bill to Implement Treaty

The Czech Senate yesterday approved a bill to require researchers to obtain approval from the State Nuclear Safety Office before working with substances that could be used to develop chemical or biological weapons (see GSN, March 7).

The Senate approved the bill after Czech Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Spidla rejected a call for an outright ban on working with biological or chemical agents at Czech research institutions.  Such research has peaceful uses and might also be necessary for responding to a terrorist attack using biological or chemical weapons, Spidla said.

The bill is based on requirements of the Biological Weapons Convention, to which the Czech Republic belongs (CTK/BBC Monitoring, May 30).

For further information, see:

BWC Text

BWC Parties

U.N. Background on BWC

Back to top

Mexico:  All Cyanide Containers Found, Authorities Say

Mexican officials said yesterday that they have accounted for all the missing containers of sodium cyanide that were stolen in a highway robbery three weeks ago (see GSN, May 30).

Mexican authorities yesterday discovered 70 of the 96 missing containers in a rural area near a small town in the central Mexican state of Puebla.  Officials blocked off the area and later found five additional containers that had been placed in large sacks and dumped nearby, said Mexican Justice Department spokeswoman Rosaura Cruz.  Mexican authorities had previously recovered 21 of the containers and the stolen truck, according to the Associated Press.

“All of the containers have now been located,” Cruz said (Emilio Lopez, Associated Press/Chicago Tribune, May 31).

Back to top

Recent Publications

Arms Control Association, Arms Control Today, May 2002.

Bunn, Matthew, John P. Holdren and Anthony Weir. Securing Nuclear Weapons and Materials:  Seven Steps for Immediate Action, Cambridge, Mass.:  Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, May 2002, 78pp.

Cirincione, Joseph, Jon B. Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar.  Deadly Arsenals:  Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction, Washington:  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 2002, 450pp.

Ellis, Jason D., Defense by Other Means:  The Politics of U.S.-NIS Threat Reduction and Nuclear Security Cooperation, Westport, Conn.:  Praeger, 2001, 221pp.

Hadar, Leon T.  Pakistan in America’s War Against Terrorism:  Strategic Ally or Unreliable Client?, Washington:  Cato Institute, May 2002, 22pp.

Norris, Robert S. Racing for the Bomb: General Leslie R. Groves, the Manhattan Project’s Indispensable Man, South Royalton, Vt.:  Steerforth Press, April 2002, 700pp.

O’Sullivan, Meghan L.  Shrewd Sanctions:  Economic Statecraft in an Age of Global Terrorism, Washington:  Brookings Institution Press, 336pp.

Talbott, Strobe. The Russia Hand:  A Memoir of Presidential Diplomacy, New York:  Random House, May 2002, 496pp.

Back to top