Threat Assessment:  Reports Cite Threats to Subways, Maritime Facilities and Planes

The U.S. Coast Guard issued a terrorism warning Friday, cautioning its units to watch for possible terrorist threats to U.S. ports, bays, rivers and shores.  The alert was the most recently reported of several warnings that also describe threats to U.S. subways (see GSN, June 6) and air cargo systems.  The official U.S. terrorist threat status nevertheless remains on yellow alert.

Coast Guard on Alert

The Seattle Coast Guard office issued a public notice Saturday warning of “a credible threat to maritime interests from swimmers and divers.” 

Meanwhile, FBI agents have been questioning scuba diving instructors around the United States, following up on a May 23 warning that “various terrorist elements have sought to develop an offensive scuba diver capability.”  FBI agents have contacted 1,200 diving shops to check the names of students, and a national accreditation organization provided a list of 2 million people who recently gained scuba certification to the FBI (MSNBC, June 9).

Subway Threat

Al-Qaeda operatives might try to attack U.S. subway systems with nerve gas during July 4 Independence Day celebrations, a federal source told the New York Post Saturday (see GSN, May 4).  National authorities warned state and local law officials about the possibility of a July 4 subway attack, according to a Philadelphia TV station KYW report. 

New York police and Transit Authority officials have increased security around major subway stops, according to the Post (Celona/Appiello, New York Post, June 9).

Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge said on CNN’s “Late Edition” that al-Qaeda “would employ chemical or biological or radiological or nuclear weapons” if the organization “could get access to our metros and our subways” (Bill Miller, Washington Post, June 10).

Bomb in Airline Cargo?

In addition, government reports have expressed serious concern that terrorists could place a bomb in air cargo — which almost all commercial flights carry beside passenger luggage, circumventing increased security for passengers and luggage.

A Transportation Department inspector general report and Transportation Security Administration reports concluded there is no routine screening of business air cargo. 

“Cargo is likely to become — and may already be — the primary threat vector in the short term,” one TSA internal report said.  Another TSA report said there is a 35 to 65 percent chance that terrorists are planning to put a bomb in cargo.

The reports said, however, that physically inspecting all cargo is impossible and suggested less disruptive steps, such as physically inspecting 5 percent of all cargo (Greg Schneider, Washington Post Service/Miami Herald, June 10).

Still on Yellow

Despite the warnings, the United States remains at yellow level of risk from terrorism (see GSN, May 1).  Orange level, the next step, would call for armed forces to back up law enforcement in defending against terrorist threats (MSNBC, June 9).

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British Response:  Defense Ministry Proposes Creation of Response Force

The British Defense Ministry plans to release a plan tomorrow outlining the creation of a 6,000-member anti-terrorism response force made up from military reserve personnel, according to the London Telegraph (see GSN, June 6).

The United Kingdom should not create specific homeland defense military units because it could hinder the British military’s ability to perform its traditional roles, according to the Defense Ministry plan.  Instead, the response force would be taken from members of the volunteer reserves of the British armed forces.

The volunteers would remain with their main units but be marked as available for the response force if needed, according to the Telegraph.  Under the defense ministry plan, the response force members would receive an extra five to six days of training per year and would have the capabilities to respond to a terrorist WMD attack.  The response force would be kept in a state of “graduated readiness,” but lead sections would be available to British police in the event of an attack, according to the plan.

Some senior defense ministry officials, however, have said the new response force does not go far enough in protecting the United Kingdom against terrorist attacks, the Telegraph reported.  Instead, a British homeland defense department, similar to a proposal being debated in the United States, should be created, they said (David Graves, London Telegraph, June 10). 

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International Response:  Terrorist Financing Crackdown Suffers From Poor Cooperation

A secret meeting of the world’s top financial investigators Friday determined that a crackdown on terrorism financing has been hindered by a lack of international cooperation, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, April 22).

“There is some concern that as we approach the first anniversary of Sept. 11, the war on terrorism is losing some of its momentum with not every country agreeing with the U.S. that the problem is a fundamental one,” said a senior Western financial investigator.

Both large and small countries have delayed implementing new measures to crack down on terrorism financing because of what has been called “political and technical reasons,” according to the Times.  The delays will make it almost impossible to reach a deadline of the end of June for implementing the new measures, the Times reported.

An FBI representative to the Monaco meeting told delegates about the difficulties U.S. authorities have had in tracking the money trail of al-Qaeda, according to the Times.  Some delegates, however, said they believed expectations were raised too high and that tracking terrorism financing would be more difficult than other forms of money laundering (Jimmy Burns, Financial Times, June 10).

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Iraq:  Rumsfeld Says Iraq Lies About Weapons of Mass Destruction

Iraq said yesterday that it has no weapons of mass destruction and called on the United States to provide proof to back up U.S. claims Iraq is pursuing such weapons, but a top U.S. official said the Iraqi statement was a lie, according to reports (see GSN, May 7).

“If the United States has any doubts on the fact that Iraq is exempt from such activity, installation or program related to weapons of mass destruction, they can show (Iraq) their suspicions, questions or information,” said an Iraqi Foreign Ministry statement issued yesterday.  “Iraq will clarify the truth on this subject.”

The United States must submit questions on the issue through a “relevant international organization designated for nonproliferation … or through their representation in Baghdad or the Iraqi diplomatic representation in Washington,” the ministry said.

The United States has repeatedly said Iraq must readmit U.N. weapons inspectors (see GSN, June 4) to verify the country no longer has or attempts to produce weapons of mass destruction (Agence France-Presse, June 9).

“Iraq has said on many occasions that it is not concerned with entering the mass destruction weapons club … we left it in 1991,” the statement said, adding that Iraq has met its U.N. commitments related to such weapons.  The United States has not provided any evidence of its claims that Iraq produces weapons of mass destruction, the statement said (Jordan Times, June 10).

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said in response, “They are lying.”

“They have them [weapons of mass destruction], and they continue to develop them, and they have weaponized chemical weapons, we know that,” Rumsfeld said.  “They have an active program to develop nuclear weapons.  It is also clear that they are actively developing biological weapons.”

“The solution in Iraq would be regime change,” Rumsfeld said, adding he hoped Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would be removed from power during Rumsfeld’s time in office.

Rumsfeld Meets with Kuwaiti Officials and U.S. Troops

Rumsfeld also met today with senior Kuwaiti officials to discuss Iraq’s violations of U.N. resolutions.  They discussed “the way ahead” in the war on terrorism but did not talk about potential military action against Iraq, Rumsfeld said.

Rumsfeld spoke to U.S. troops at Kuwait’s Camp Doha Sunday.  “The global war on terrorism began in Afghanistan, to be sure, but it will not end there,” he said (see GSN, June 3).

“You are the people who stand between freedom and fear, between our people and a dangerous adversary that cannot be appeased, cannot be ignored and cannot be allowed to win,” he told about 1,000 troops stationed 35 miles from the Iraqi border, but he did not mention Iraq by name (MSNBC news services, June 10).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

IAEA Iraq Action Team

U.N. Office of the Iraq Program 

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U.S. Testing:  Japanese Officials Protest U.S. Subcritical Nuclear Test

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Energy Department conducted its 17^th subcritical nuclear test Friday, amid reported protests from the governors of Hiroshima, Nagasaki and many other Japanese cities (See GSN, June 6).

Yuzan Fujita, governor of Hiroshima, wrote President George W. Bush in protest and called the test “a challenge to the international community,” the Japan Times Online reported Sunday.

Fujita also criticized Bush for not ruling out using nuclear weapons against Iraq or Iran, according to another report.

Some 80 protesters reportedly demonstrated peacefully outside the U.S. embassy in Tokyo last Friday and Saturday, during which local guards received letters of protest, according to a State Department spokesman.

Energy said it has conducted subcritical testing since 1997 to gain data useful for maintaining the safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile. 

The test Friday was designed to gather data on properties of plutonium, according to the department.

Protests Say Tests Could Lead to Arms Race

Subcritical tests, which are designed to create no self-sustaining fission chain reaction, are generally considered not to violate the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits “any nuclear weapons test explosion or nuclear explosion.”  The United States has signed but not ratified the treaty (see GSN, May 2).

The U.S. tests have nevertheless provoked nongovernmental and foreign criticism, which has argued that the tests undermine the purpose of the treaty and can be difficult for international observers to discern from low-level nuclear testing banned by the treaty.

On Saturday, the governors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the mayor of Nagasaki and numerous other municipal officials protested the U.S. test, Japan Times Online reported. 

Hiroshima’s governor, Fujita, wrote Bush expressing anger the test was conducted despite repeated urging not to do so, the publication reported.

Nagasaki’s Governor Genjiro Kaneko and Mayor Itcho Ito also sent protest messages to the U.S. embassy in Tokyo, the publication reported.

“It is a very dangerous act that could lead to a nuclear arms race,” Kaneko wrote, according to the story.  “It is an offense to the international community, which is seeking nuclear disarmament, and it cannot be allowed.”

The mayors of Kyoto, Sakai, Hirakata, Takasuki and Suita also sent letters of protest to the United States, the story reported.

The cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were the first and only sites of nuclear warfare, devastatingly struck by the United States in August 1945 and prompting an abrupt end to World War II.

The most recent test comes amid controversy over comments by senior Japanese officials suggesting Japan might one day rethink its post-war policy against developing nuclear weapons (see GSN, June 5).  China’s nuclear weapons arsenal has been cited as a threat.  Chinese officials have cited the U.S. national missile defense program pursued by the Bush administration as a threat to its capabilities.

Alternative to Subcritical Testing Proposed

According to Energy, the subcritical tests help maintain the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile without needing to resume explosive nuclear testing banned by the treaty.

“Subcritical experiments are scientific experiments to obtain technical information in support of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Stockpile Stewardship and Management programs — the DOE programs are to maintain the safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile without nuclear testing,” according to an Energy fact sheet released last year.

“Performance is being studied as a function of plutonium age as well as surface finish and manufacturing technique,” C. Bruce Tarter, director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said in congressional testimony in April.  “Results will affect estimates of pit lifetime and decisions about future production of replacement pits and improve our fundamental understanding of performance.”

Arms control critics said the subcritical testing is not needed to maintain the stockpile.

There is no evidence that there will be problems with the plutonium pits as they age, and if problems do emerge the United States could always replace the pits with pits on the shelf or newly produced pits, said Christopher Paine, a senior analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

“The main application would be to get more detailed knowledge of plutonium behavior under pressure to develop new weapons simulation codes,” he said, adding that such information could be used to develop new types of nuclear weapons.

David Wright, senior staff scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said an argument has emerged from the department that continued testing enables the weapons laboratories to attract top scientists to do interesting work.

“I think it’s quite clear that if what you’re really trying to do is maintain your existing arsenal, there is no reason in the world to do these because as he (Paine) says, you can remanufacture these weapons to the original specifications,” he said. “There is no reason to do subcritical testing because you basically have done testing before to know how they operate.”

For further information, see:

CTBT Text

CTBT Parties

CTBT Organization

U.N. Background on CTBT

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South Asia:  Work for Long-Term Stability in Region, Analysts Say

By Kerry Boyd
Global Security Newswire

Tensions between India and Pakistan decreased over the weekend after U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage met with leaders in both countries and U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld prepared to visit the region in an attempt to avert war between the nuclear-armed countries (see related GSN story, today).

Several U.S. experts last week supported the Bush administration’s plan to focus on preventing a South Asian war but said the United States must also pave the way for a more stable future once the current crisis passes.

A nuclear war in the region “would make Hiroshima and Nagasaki look like nothing,” and would require massive international assistance to deal with the consequent humanitarian crisis, said Institute for Science and International Security President David Albright on Thursday.  Albright and other South Asia analysts spoke at the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace to launch their new collected papers:  “A New Equation:  U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan After Sept. 11.”

Fortunately, there is only a “low probability” of nuclear war, although some scenarios of nuclear escalation are realistic, Albright said (see GSN, June 7).  He noted, however, that if Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf were overthrown, it would change the calculations dramatically and for the worse.  Therefore, the United States should focus on preventing such an event, he said.

Deal with Kashmir

If conventional and unconventional war can be avoided in the near term, there are several steps the United States can take to prevent continuing instability, the analysts said.  In terms of overall policy toward South Asia, the United States must help resolve the dispute over the Kashmir territory, which is divided between the two countries, said Lee Feinstein of the German Marshall Fund.

U.S. efforts in the region since the end of the Cold War have usually taken the form of crisis diplomacy, Feinstein said.  U.S. leaders should instead help Pakistan and India work to begin a process of resolving the Kashmir dispute.  While no one should expect immediate results, the world can no longer “let the Kashmir issue fester,” he said.  Even if the current crisis does not lead to war, “there will be more close calls” if the two countries do not deal with Kashmir, he said.

Although India prefers to deal with Kashmir as an internal or bilateral issue, “Kashmir is now everybody’s problem,” partly due to the nuclearization of the subcontinent, Feinstein said.  The United Nations, China, Russia and the United States have all become involved in trying to prevent war and must deal with the dispute over the territory.

“The most effective nonproliferation measure would be for India and Pakistan, with discreet assistance from Washington, to resolutely devise a process to address the half-century-old dispute over Kashmir,” Feinstein wrote in his paper.  The Kashmiri people should also be part of the final process, he added.

Promoting Nuclear Restraint

If South Asia peacefully resolves its current crisis, the United States should put nuclear restraint back on the agenda as a top priority in its South Asian policy, Feinstein said last week.  In his paper, he called on the United States to encourage India and Pakistan to define a credible minimum deterrent at the lowest level possible and to promote confidence-building measures.  The United States should also engage both countries in nonproliferation efforts, he said.

The United States should also encourage continual meetings between Indian and Pakistani experts to discuss nuclear issues, said Lewis Dunn of Science Applications International Corp.  Often such meetings could be unofficial, such as involving retired officials, and participants could discuss potential scenarios and what could go wrong in times of heightened tension, he said. 

Sharing Lessons Learned

Dunn and Feinstein also suggested that the United States should provide advice based on lessons it has learned trying to manage its own nuclear capability and preventing nuclear conflict during the Cold War. 

Encouraging Pakistani and Indian experts to discuss nuclear issues and providing lessons from the U.S. experience could help the adversaries identify questions and issues they must address on their own, Dunn wrote in his paper.

The United States should also share information on some of its “organizational best practices,” such as personnel reliability programs, Dunn wrote (see GSN, March 18). 

Some officials are interested in such assistance.  The United States could provide unclassified information on such issues as safely transporting hazardous materials in difficult weather conditions, Pakistani Brig. Gen. Feroz Khan told Global Security Newswire.  The United States should provide some of its expertise — through unclassified means — on nuclear safety, he said.  “Why must I learn something that was already learned in the 1950s and ’60s?” he said.

Safeguarding Materials

Slightly trickier is the possibility of U.S. assistance to help safeguard nuclear materials.  Some members of Congress have proposed expanding programs similar to those in the former Soviet Union for protecting WMD materials to other countries (see GSN, March 20).  The United States should offer assistance to protect such materials, Albright, Dunn and Feinstein said. 

Albright suggested offering items such as unclassified books on nuclear weapons safety and surveillance equipment (see GSN, March 18).  The United States should also work to persuade India and Pakistan to adopt internationally accepted export controls to prevent the spread of WMD materials, he said (see GSN, May 22).

Feinstein wrote that the United States should provide nonsensitive equipment, such as monitoring equipment for vaults and tracking equipment for nuclear weapons.  Dunn wrote that limited discussions on steps to “make a nuclear weapons unusable” in a case of theft and provisions of nonsensitive technology and equipment to enhance security are other ways to improve safety.

NPT Restrictions

The experts said the United States is under certain obligations, stemming from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which would limit the types of assistance it could provide to India and Pakistan, who have not signed the treaty.  Those obligations are important and affect U.S. efforts to prevent proliferation in other regions, Dunn said, but he added that the NPT requirements leave room for some useful assistance.  At a minimum, the United States could provide unclassified materials related to nuclear security and control, he said.

Feinstein also said that providing information available in the public domain could be helpful without violating the NPT.  Offering advice based on U.S. experience managing a nuclear arsenal and providing nonsensitive equipment are some examples.  The United States should follow the motto of “do no harm” in deciding what assistance to provide — such as withholding any technologies that would enhance the countries’ ability to deploy their nuclear weapons, he said.

Consequences of South Asia on Global WMD Proliferation

Beyond direct assistance to South Asia, the analysts also said the United States must consider the broader implications of the tensions between the two nuclear-armed states. 

“The concern is to avoid a ‘cascading effect’ where second-tier states feel increasingly exposed by their earlier decision to give up the nuclear option,” Feinstein wrote (see GSN, June 7). 

If the two countries avert war, it could add support to the argument that nuclear weapons are a stabilizing force, therefore increasing the risk that more countries would pursue obtaining nuclear weapons, Dunn said.

On the other hand, if nuclear war occurs and obliterates Pakistan, the message to the world would be very different, he said.

For further information, see:

Stimson Center Background on Kashmir

Pakistani Government

Indian Government

NPT Text

NPT Parties

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India-Pakistan:  Tensions Decrease But Crisis Not Over

Tensions between India and Pakistan, which has world leaders worried about nuclear war, decreased over the weekend as India welcomed a pledge from Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to crack down on militants. Details of Pakistani and Indian plans to de-escalate the crisis, however, remain uncertain (see GSN, June 7).

On a visit to the region over the last few days, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage (see related GSN story, today) secured a promise from Musharraf to “stop cross-border infiltration (by Pakistan-based militants into Indian Kashmir) permanently” (Scott Baldauf, Christian Science Monitor, June 10).

Armitage also told Indian leaders that Musharraf had indicated he would eventually dismantle militant training camps on Pakistan’s side of the Line of Control, which divides Kashmir between the two countries, an Indian official said Saturday. 

“The impression I got from Armitage is that Musharraf has some difficulty in this regard, that yes, he’ll do it, but not immediately,” the official said.

India welcomed the promise to end infiltration in an official statement.  The pledge was a “step forward and in the right direction,” Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh told U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell by telephone Saturday.

India has decided that infiltration across the Line of Control has decreased substantially but not completely, the Indian official said (Dugger/Shanker, New York Times, June 9).  The infiltration has decreased since May 27, when Musharraf said militants had stopped crossing the line, Indian army sources said (see GSN, May 28).

Indian army sources said they would monitor the infiltration until June 15 before deciding whether to pull back troops from the border, the Indian Asian Age reported, according to the Christian Science Monitor (Baldauf, Christian Science Monitor).

India to Reciprocate

India promised to “respond appropriately and positively” to a decrease in militancy, an Indian spokeswoman said.

In exchange for Pakistan’s efforts to crack down on militants, the United States expects India to reciprocate with measures to de-escalate the tensions. 

“It is quite clear that there will be some actions on the part of India responding to the messages I brought from Islamabad,” Armitage said Saturday “I think you couldn’t say the crisis is over, but I think you could say the tensions are down measurably.”

Armitage said he expected India to make “military gestures” in the next few days to ease the crisis, although he did not specify what those gestures would be.  “There’s a whole host of things they could do, and I don’t know which they’ll do, but I got the very strong impression that they were inclined to respond to the international community,” he said.

Armitage also said he thought India was considering “some diplomatic actions which could include the return of some people to diplomatic postings in Islamabad.”  India removed its ambassador from Pakistan in December and later expelled Pakistan’s ambassador (Karl Vick, Washington Post, June 9).

An Indian official, however, said a return of Indian diplomats to Pakistan is unlikely, saying India might instead slightly reduce its military buildup along the border.  India would give its response in the next few days, the official said.

U.S. Defense Secretary to Continue Diplomatic Efforts

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is expected to follow Armitage’s trip and visit the region this week.  He is expected to continue pressing for ways to avert war. 

Dealing with Kashmir?

One subject that could arise during Rumsfeld's visit is the possibility of new monitors along the Line of Control, according to the Wall Street Journal.  Pakistan and India have disagreed on whether a third party should be involved in watching the border (Solomon/Slater, Wall Street Journal, June 10).

Musharraf is “quite keen … on entering into a dialogue on the whole question of Kashmir,” Armitage said. 

India has so far rejected most proposals for discussing Kashmir.  “We hope that New Delhi would agree (to) holding talks with Pakistan on all issues of Kashmir,” Pakistani Information Minister Nisar Memon said (Vick, Washington Post).

Militants Might Be Able to Derail De-escalation

Despite optimism expressed by several U.S., Indian and Pakistani leaders, some analysts and officials expressed concern that another major attack on India’s side of the Line of Control by militants could derail any progress made toward peace. 

“In this circumstance, if a major incident were to take place, it would create a situation where the government would be under tremendous pressure,” an Indian official said (Dugger/Shanker, New York Times).

Several militants on Pakistan’s side of the Line of Control said they had received orders from the Pakistani leadership to stop infiltration but said they might not obey those orders, according to Newsweek.  “We will continue to fight,” said one militant called Atif. 

Two weeks ago, a major general from the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence agency ordered militant commanders to stop crossing the Line of Control, according to Atif.  Several commanders said Musharraf was betraying the Kashmiri cause, Atif said.

Atif and some other militant commanders said they could still sneak by Indian patrols and obtain weapons.  “There could be renegades from these militant groups who can’t really be stopped regardless of the tremendous obstacles they face,” said Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani Army lieutenant general.

There are already many militants already on India’s side of Kashmir, Atif said.  Those militants would likely plan some of their own attacks, another militant commander said.  “If they can’t come home, they’ve got nothing to lose,” he said.

Militants inside Pakistan might also target Musharraf, Masood said (Hussain/Moreau, Newsweek, June 17).

Assessing U.S. Role

Despite the potential for militants to derail negotiations, some analysts said the U.S. diplomatic efforts have been helpful. 

“I think the U.S. has shown great sensitivity in this crisis,” said Anuradha Chinoy of Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.  “They are using the classic pressure-compromise, carrot-and-stick tactics. The carrot is if India can de-escalate this crisis, there might be some encouragement of increased trade with India, which India wants.  And if Pakistan de-escalates, there might be more aid for Pakistan, which it desperately needs” (Baldauf, Christian Science Monitor).

Meanwhile, the United States has also been discussing sharing U.S. satellite information with both sides in an attempt to avoid miscalculations that might lead to war, Armitage said, adding there has been no decision (Dugger/Shanker, New York Times).

For further information, see:

Stimson Center Background on Kashmir

Pakistani Government

Indian Government

Carnegie Endowment Nuclear Status Map

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Monkeypox:  Experts Fear Weaponization of Smallpox Cousin

Scientific experts are concerned that terrorists or rogue states could use monkeypox, related to smallpox, in a biological weapons attack, United Press International reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 24).

The “real fear is that (monkeypox) might be engineered as a bioweapon,” said former U.N. weapons inspector Jonathan Tucker.

The former Soviet Union is known to have conducted research on the weaponization of monkeypox, according to UPI.  The Soviet Union had decided it did not want to use smallpox as a weapon and had discussed using monkeypox instead, said Ken Alibek, former deputy chief of the Soviet biological weapons program.

Although monkeypox causes symptoms similar to smallpox, it is only fatal in a minority of cases, said James LeDuc, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention division of viral and rickettsial diseases.  The smallpox vaccine is also effective against monkeypox and camelpox, another smallpox cousin that Iraq has admitted researching, UPI reported (see GSN, May 30).

Monkeypox is also not as contagious as smallpox, according to UPI.  The Soviet Union was not concerned about the contagiousness of monkeypox since they planned to create “tons and tons” of the virus, Alibek said.  It is unknown whether stocks of monkeypox had leaked out from the Soviet research program, he added.  In the 1970s until the 1990s, however, “it was not a problem to get any of the orthopox viruses (smallpox, camelpox and monkeypox),” Alibek said.

Iraq potentially could have gotten access to monkeypox for weapons research purposes, according to experts.

“We’ve never ever gotten to the bottom of their involvement with camelpox, whether they were really trying to weaponize it or it was a [facade] for working with smallpox or monkeypox,” said a former U.N. weapons inspector who took part in inspections in Iraq. 

There is concern that Iraq had access to smallpox, but “there’s no such indirect evidence for monkeypox,” the former U.N. weapons inspector said.  “The fact that we haven’t come across evidence from the United Nations doesn’t mean it’s not there” (Steve Mitchell, United Press International, June 9).

For further information, see:

CDC Smallpox Information

Journal of the American Medical Association Background

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Anthrax:  Researchers Develop Potential Antibody Treatment

Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin have developed an anthrax antibody that attaches itself to a toxin released by the anthrax bacterium, thereby preventing cell damage, the Houston Chronicle reported last week (see GSN, May 31).

Researchers developed the antibody by isolating protein fragments taken from mice.  The best-isolated antibody, called 1H, was determined to bind with anthrax toxin 50 times more tightly than previously known antibodies, the Chronicle reported.  This sticky quality enables the antibody to stay attached to the toxin long enough to be eliminated from the body.  Testing has shown that mice infected with anthrax toxin were able to survive if given the synthetic antibodies.  The results of the University of Texas study is scheduled to be published in the June issue of the journal Nature Biotechnology.

Researchers plan to conduct further tests on monkeys with a human antibody designed to attach itself to the anthrax toxin, according to the Chronicle.  They said, however, that it would take several years before a treatment for humans could be created (Leigh Hopper, Houston Chronicle, June 4).  If necessary, however, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration could waive the human testing requirements in order to provide the treatment more quickly (see GSN, May 31), said Jean Patterson, chairman of the Virology and Immunology Department at the Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research (Katherine Sayre, Daily Texan, June 4).

Did Bush Administration Have Warning?

The watchdog group Judicial Watch has filed several lawsuits against the Bush administration for information on the anthrax attacks, the Associated Press reported Friday.  White House officials had said last fall that some staff members had begun taking the anthrax antibiotic Cipro on Sept. 11, before the anthrax outbreak, said Judicial Watch Chairman Larry Klyman.

“We believe that the White House knew or had reason to know that an anthrax attack was imminent or underway,” he said (Associated Press/New York Times, June 8).

CDC Reviews Brentwood Deaths

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found that the number of deaths among employees at the Brentwood postal facility is no different than that expected during a typical year (see GSN, March 29).  Two Washington postal workers at the Brentwood facility died of inhalational anthrax during last fall’s outbreak.  The CDC found that eight other employees have also died since September 2001 — four from heart disease, two from cancer, one from a stroke and one from still unreported causes (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention release, June 6).

For further information, see:

CDC Frequently Asked Questions on Anthrax

FBI Amerithrax Investigation

Journal of the American Medical Association Background

GSN Anthrax Attack Chronology (Dec. 12, 2001)

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Uzbekistan:  U.S. Army Finds Traces of Agents at Base

U.S. soldiers stationed at the Karshi Khanabad military base in Uzbekistan have discovered traces of chemical weapons agents, BBC News reported today.

Soldiers at the base had earlier discovered traces of mustard gas and nerve agents and have recently discovered traces of a suspected blood agent, such as cyanide, according to the BBC.  The new discovery, however, did not indicate the presence of additional chemical weapons, said a U.S. military spokesman.  Further testing still needs to be conducted on the recently discovered traces, which could also be from rocket fuel, which has a similar composition, said Col. Roger King (BBC News, June 10).

Over the weekend, U.S. forces stationed at the base had discovered traces of nerve gas and mustard gas agents, a U.S. military spokesman said yesterday.  All U.S. soldiers were evacuated from areas near where the traces were discovered and inspections have been ordered for all coalition bases in Central Asia, according to the Los Angeles Times.  No U.S. soldiers have reported any symptoms that could result from exposure to the agents, said Col. Doug Liening, chief surgeon for the Coalition Joint Task Force.

It is unlikely that the discovered traces of chemical weapon agents were the result of terrorist activity, King said.  Instead, the traces are probably the result of leakage from old chemical weapons stored at the base, which had previously been used by the former Soviet military, he added.

“There’s no proof that it was placed there recently,” said Maj. Chet Kemp, deputy chief planner for nuclear, biological and chemical hazards at the Bagram air base in Afghanistan.  The traces might have been recently discovered because the gases spread in the summer heat, he added (Carol Williams, Los Angeles Times, June 10).

The chemical agent traces were first detected Friday at a bunker on the edge of the Uzbek base, located far away from U.S. personnel, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.  On Saturday, traces were discovered in two hangers — one used to house a headquarters and one used by the Air Force for maintenance, said Maj. Gary Tallman (Lee Keath, Associated Press/Philadelphia Inquirer, June 10).

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United States:  RAND Says U.S. Lacks Ability to Attack Mobile Targets

A recently released RAND Corp. report says the U.S. Air Force needs to improve its ability to find and destroy small mobile targets, such as mobile ballistic missile launchers, Defense Week reported today (see GSN, May 6).

To defeat such targets, the Air Force needs to improve its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms and its command and control abilities so an aircraft can receive an order to attack a target less than 10 minutes after it is first detected, according to the report.  ISR platforms need to be strengthened to include all-weather and day-and-night sensors, says the report, entitled “Enhancing Dynamic Command and Control Against Time Critical Targets.”

“Without these advanced ISR capabilities, (theater missile defense) counterforce operations will continue to be relatively ineffective,” the report says.

Although the U.S. Air Force had some success against exposed and stationary targets during the Gulf War and the NATO campaign against Yugoslavia, adversaries are using new technologies to make forces more mobile and are also hiding forces, such as in civilian populations, according to the report.

“The U.S. military recognizes the difficult challenge of prosecuting these sorts of targets,” the report says.  “Numerous initiatives are underway to improve attack effectiveness; the challenge is to develop and integrate those that offer the best payoff and to allocate sufficient resources to field them.”

Cruise Missiles and Enemy Air Defenses

The Air Force also needs to improve its ability to defend against enemy cruise missiles, the report says (see GSN, April 16).  The service’s planned integration of new radar capabilities on E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System aircraft will help detect cruise missiles, but other improvements also need to be made, such as new tracking equipment and improved methods to differentiate friendly and enemy aircraft, according to the report.

The Air Force has also been effective in destroying enemy air defense systems, the report says.  U.S. and coalition losses during the NATO air campaign against Yugoslavia were less than one-hundredth of 1 percent per sortie, the report added. 

The Air Force, however, must nevertheless improve its ability to defend against a new range of threats, such as Russian-made SA-10 and SA-20 surface-to-air missiles, according to the report (Ron Laurenzo, Defense Week, June 10). 

For further information, see:

MDA Basics of Missile Defense

MDA Missile Defense System 

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Radiological Weapons I:  U.S. Authorities Arrest Alleged “Dirty Bomber”

U.S. authorities have arrested alleged al-Qaeda operative Abdullah al-Mujahir, who is believed to have planned the detonation of a “dirty bomb” inside the United States, Attorney General John Ashcroft announced today (see GSN, May 6).

Al-Mujahir was arrested May 8 as he arrived at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport from Pakistan, Ashcroft said.  Al-Mujahir, a U.S. citizen, traveled to Afghanistan and Pakistan last year, where he met with al-Qaeda leaders and researched radiological weapons, Ashcroft said.

U.S. suspicions about al-Mujahir came from “multiple, independent, corroborating sources,” he said.

Al-Qaeda apparently believed al-Mujahir would be able to travel freely within the United States because he is a U.S. citizen and had a U.S. passport, Ashcroft said (see GSN, April 24).  The dirty bomb plot is not thought to have progressed beyond the initial planning stages, he added. 

Al-Mujahir has been determined to be an “enemy combatant” and will be transferred to the Defense Department, where he could be subject to a military tribunal, Ashcroft said.

“We have acted with legal authority both under the laws of war and clear Supreme Court precedent, which establishes that the military may detain a United States citizen who has joined the enemy and has entered our country to carry out hostile acts,” he said (Ted Bridis, Associated Press/Washington Post, June 10).

Officials do not know if al-Mujahir, also known as Jose Padilla, had targeted Washington, said Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz.  Mujahir, however, “did indicate knowledge of the Washington, D.C., area,” Wolfowitz said (Ted Bridis, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, June 10).

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Radiological Weapons II:  IAEA Searches for Radiation Sources in Georgia

An International Atomic Energy Agency team is expected to begin today a two-week search for two strontium-90 electrical generators in western Georgia (see GSN, March 27).  The generators were used as power sources for communications stations in remote areas of the former Soviet Union.

“The situation in Georgia may just be an indication of the serious safety and security implications orphaned sources may have elsewhere in the world,” said IAEA Director of Radiation and Waste Security Abel Gonzalez.  “The IAEA’s work in Georgia is part of a comprehensive plan that includes agency assistance to states to help them regain control of such orphan sources.”

The search is the first phase of an IAEA plan to conduct radiological surveys in Georgia, according to an IAEA press release.  The second phase, involving an airborne and roadborne survey of a different area not covered in the search, is set to begin in September (International Atomic Energy Agency release, June 10).  

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Nuclear Waste:  Nevada Rejects Mushroom Cloud License Plates

Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles officials have said they have rejected a proposed license plate that would have featured a mushroom cloud in honor of the state’s history, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, April 25).  The proposed design was seen as inappropriate due, in part, to Nevada’s efforts to block a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Department of Motor Vehicles Director Ginny Lewis said (Associated Press/Boston Globe, June 9).

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