Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

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    Issue for Tuesday, July 2, 2002

  Terrorism  
U.S.  Response I:  U.S. Ports and Waterways Remain Vulnerable Full Story
U.S. Response II:  Congress to Delay Possible Changes to FBI and CIA Full Story
This Week's Stories

  Weapons of Mass Destruction  
Iraq:  Baghdad Continues to Waver on U.N. Inspectors Full Story
This Week's Stories

  Nuclear Weapons  
Kazakhstan:  International Partners to Convert Former Weapons Plant Full Story
India-Pakistan:  U.S. Wants to Mediate, Help Avert Future Crises Full Story
Egypt:  Officials Plan for Nuclear Power, Dismiss Weapons Reports Full Story
North Korea:  Delegation Studies Nuclear Safety in South Korea Full Story
This Week's Stories

  Biological Weapons  
Anthrax:  Postal Service to Spend $35 Million on Decontamination Full Story
Threat Assessment:  U.S. Should Expect Another Attack, Expert Says Full Story
This Week's Stories

  Chemical Weapons  
This Week's Stories

  Missile Proliferation  
This Week's Stories

  Missile Defense  
U.S.-Russia:  Joint Missile Defense Program Unlikely, Russian Official Says Full Story
Israel:  House Increases Arrow Co-Development Funds Full Story
This Week's Stories

  Missile Defense  
This Week's Stories
 

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The level of hatred and distrust between India and Pakistan is so great that there is almost zero chance either would listen to the other’s proposals.
—George Perkovich, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recommending an active U.S. role in easing South Asian tensions.


Kazakhstan:  International Partners to Convert Former Weapons Plant

A former Soviet nuclear weapons plant in Kazakhstan will be converted to civilian use under a new agreement announced by U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham yesterday (see GSN, June 4)...Full Story

U.S.-Russia:  Joint Missile Defense Program Unlikely, Russian Official Says

By Kerry Boyd
Global Security Newswire

There is little chance that Russia and the United States will cooperatively develop any missile defense system, Alexei Arbatov, vice chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee for Defense, said Friday (see GSN, July 1)...Full Story



Current Issue Tuesday, July 2, 2002
Terrorism

U.S.  Response I:  U.S. Ports and Waterways Remain Vulnerable

By James Kitfield

National Journal

PORT OF MIAMI, Fla. — As the Royal Caribbean cruise ship Majesty of the Seas glides through a narrow channel bound for the waters of the Caribbean, Coast Guard Boatswain’s Mate 2nd Class Bill Dennis and his crew power their 41-foot skiff through the behemoth’s wake like a pilot fish shadowing a whale.  The Coast Guard boat quickly and firmly warns off any recreational boaters who stray into an invisible 100-yard perimeter around the cruise ship.  The shipboard revelers certainly approve of the security escort; from their pool deck 10 floors above the water’s surface, they wave tropical drinks and shout encouragement down to the Coast Guardsmen following in their wake.

Ever since arriving at the Port of Miami, which is the nation’s busiest cruise ship embarkation point, the passengers aboard the Majesty of the Seas have been wrapped in a new security envelope that would have been unthinkable before Sept. 11, 2001.  In the water, Coast Guard escorts were instituted; on land, the cruise ship terminals and adjacent parking garages were redesigned to funnel ticketed passengers through tighter security checkpoints and to discourage loitering by nonpassengers.  A computerized gate security system, with identification badges and special permits for terminal and port employees, was also installed.

Meanwhile, Coast Guard security teams periodically patrol the terminals on foot, overseeing the private-security firms that screen passengers and cargo much the way airport screeners do.  Everyone here has remained on “threat level three” since Sept. 11, an alert status that was formerly associated only with bomb scares.  Furthermore, as part of a new “sea marshals” program, armed Coast Guardsmen routinely escort many of the local pilots who guide cruise ships and other large vessels into and out of the Port of Miami.  If the port were to receive intelligence suggesting it was the target of a specific threat, the security presence would be increased, and most likely would include one of the Coast Guard’s new Maritime Safety and Security Teams.  These units are essentially water-borne SWAT teams, each with four fast-response boats and heavy tactical weaponry.

Port authorities credit the increased security measures — along with cut-rate cruise packages — for helping to entice cruise passengers and tourists back to a South Florida whose economy depends on them as its lifeblood.  Yet the security improvements haven’t come cheap.  Port of Miami officials estimate they will need $24 million to implement all the needed security upgrades, and say they must double or even triple the port’s $4 million annual security budget.  Since Sept. 11, Florida has already spent more than $30 million on seaport security measures statewide, and officials are pleading for increased federal help and a share of the $93.3 million in port security grants that Congress authorized last year.  Even before the attacks, the American Association of Port Authorities estimated the cost of upgrading security at the nation’s 301 ports of entry at more than $2 billion.

And yet for all the improvements, a palpable unease troubles those charged with securing the Port of Miami against terrorist attacks.  Operators of other U.S. ports, as well as many officials in Washington, share this sense of insecurity.  In recent congressional testimony, Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta called improving security at the nation’s ports his top priority, and the House and Senate have already passed maritime security bills, the differences between which will be ironed out in conference this summer.  Indeed, on June 24 President George W. Bush spoke at Port Elizabeth, N.J.  — whose port authority lost 75 employees in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks — to tout the importance of ongoing improvements in port security.  When the secretary of the Bush administration’s proposed new Department of Homeland Security takes office, his or her first priority will almost certainly be the further plugging of what many experts call the most glaring gap in America’s defenses — the seaports.

“After the 9/11 attacks, the government’s primary effort was rightfully focused on the aviation sector, but now I think we as a nation need to take a very hard look at our ports,” Adm. Thomas Collins, commandant of the Coast Guard, told National Journal.  “When you look at the sheer volume of cargo that comes through our ports, you quickly realize that they have a very, very high value to our economy.  And our continuing concern is that U.S. ports and waterways remain very vulnerable.”

The immensity of the mission is obvious here beneath the cool sea spray that coats Bill Dennis and his fellow “Coasties” as they lead the Majesty of the Seas out of the port.  Up close and from sea level, the giant ship seems like an indelible part of the landscape.  When the liner begins to move with improbable speed and power through the water, the rest of the world suddenly seems to take a step backward.  The ship’s hull is so immense that as it passes by, its displacement sucks boats nearly off their moorings on both sides of the narrow channel.

“She’s a big one, about a thousand feet long,” Coast Guard Lt. Cmdr. Ron LeBrec says with a pensive expression, as he waves to passengers at the rail far above.  If the cruise is sold out, he says, the ship will be carrying roughly 5,000 passengers and crew.  “Basically that’s a World Trade Center tower lying on its side in the water, moving at 20 knots.”

Tempting Targets

From the Coast Guard’s local headquarters on nearby Causeway Island, Capt. James Watson can see the top decks and smokestacks of the giant cruise liners as they migrate out to sea.  During high season — the winter months — as many as five of the huge ships are moored at one time, bow-to-stern, in the Port of Miami.  That’s roughly the cruise ship industry equivalent of having the U.S.  Navy’s entire Pacific Fleet docked at Pearl Harbor.

Across the channel, Watson can also see mountains of 40-foot-long metal cargo containers stacked under towering pierside cranes; they are just a few hundred of the estimated 6 million such containers that enter U.S. ports each year.  Inspectors personally examine only a few of the containers and their contents.  In May, Senator Bob Graham (D-Fla.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, confirmed a classified Coast Guard intelligence alert that 25 suspected Islamic extremists were thought to have entered major seaports in California, Florida, and Georgia this year by hiding in cargo containers and walking away undetected, dressed as stevedores.  No one is discussing what may have become of the extremists.

As commander of the Marine Safety Office in Miami, Watson finds himself mentally trading places with the terrorists, trying to view his port through the skewed prism of someone bent on mayhem and destruction.  The Port of Miami had once seemed like nothing so much as a giant and efficient sorting hub on the conveyer belt of the global economy; now Watson is forced to see it as an amalgam of potentially inviting targets.

“Before Sept. 11, my primary focus was on crimes such as drug smuggling, stolen goods, and illegal immigration,” said Watson.  “Ever since the attacks, however, we’ve been looking hard at ourselves and wondering if we’re the next target.  If we are being cased by terrorists, what are our greatest vulnerabilities, and where should we put our limited resources to patch our most obvious weaknesses?”

Because Florida is home to the two largest cruise ship ports in the world — Miami and nearby Port Everglades, in Fort Lauderdale, together process 6 million passengers a year — that appraisal quickly led the Coast Guard to look closely at cruise ship operations.  Cruise ships are basically floating cities that run on regularly published schedules, have mostly foreign crews, and present attractive targets to terrorists intent on inflicting mass casualties.  In analyzing their ports’ vulnerabilities, Watson and his team also had to consider the giant fuel-tank farm at nearby Turkey Point, as well as the nuclear power plant at Port St. Lucie on Hutchinson Island.

Unfortunately, after Sept. 11, almost no terrorist scenario concocted by port officials seems too far-fetched.  The recent Hollywood movie The Sum of All Fears, for instance, depicts terrorists smuggling a nuclear weapon into the Port of Baltimore in a cargo container.  They later set off the device and destroy virtually the entire city.  When the movie became the nation’s No.  1 box-office hit, the U.S.  Customs Service took the unusual step of holding a press conference on June 3 to assure a nervous public that safeguards against such a scenario were in place.  According to the Customs Service, it has recently outfitted its inspectors with 4,000 personal-size radiation detectors, with another 4,500 on order. 

As everyone in the port security business knows, however, screening procedures depend heavily on reliable ship manifests and specific intelligence to identify “high-risk” containers.  These are hardly givens, in an overloaded and antiquated system that generates anywhere from 30 to 40 different documents for each container shipped.  Customs is able to screen only 2 percent to 3 percent of the large cargo containers that enter the United States.

In its recent study Protecting the American Homeland, the Brookings Institution in Washington took the threat seriously enough to warn that “a ‘doomsday scenario’ attack on the maritime industry, using nuclear devices concealed in a shipping container, could cause damage and disruption costing the economy as much as $1 trillion.”

Beyond shipping containers, the waterfront presents plenty of other opportunities for terrorists.  Acting on information reportedly gleaned from al-Qaeda suspects held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, the FBI in June began a nationwide canvass of U.S.  scuba diving shops.  That search was based on intelligence reports that al-Qaeda operatives were taking scuba training in order to launch a bombing spree against ships, power plants, bridges, and other shoreline targets.  When an errant barge struck a bridge over the Arkansas River in Oklahoma on May 26, maritime officials were also forced to consider the security of the nation’s 5,000 towboats and 33,000 barges, many of which carry explosives and toxic chemicals over 25,000 miles of rivers and coastal waterways.  The Arkansas River accident collapsed the bridge, killing 14 people and severing Interstate 40, a major east-west transportation artery. 

Al-Qaeda’s tactics on Sept. 11 also raised worries that terrorists might try to turn ships themselves into weapons of mass destruction.  Last September, that threat led Boston Harbor to deny entry to a tanker carrying liquefied natural gas, out of fear that terrorists could ignite a blast that would obliterate the city’s densely populated waterfront.

It’s not as if terrorists haven’t targeted ships before.  Coast Guard and port authority officials are sensitive to the lessons of al-Qaeda’s October 2000 attack on the USS Cole, when suicide bombers on a small craft laden with explosives killed 17 U.S. sailors and nearly sank a state-of-the-art Navy destroyer as it refueled in Yemen.  That attack mirrored deadly tactics used by the Tamil Tigers terrorist group in Sri Lanka.  If such an attack were to occur while a cruise ship was taking on fuel from a barge, or while a petroleum tanker was off-loading fuel, the results could be catastrophic. 

Likewise, the 1985 attack on the cruise ship Achille Lauro in the Mediterranean remains a cautionary tale for U.S. maritime authorities.  In that incident, Palestinian terrorists commandeered a cruise ship after smuggling weapons aboard.  The Palestinians took 413 passengers hostage and killed Leon Klinghoffer, an elderly and wheelchair-bound American whose body they dumped into the sea.

“The Achille Lauro taught us that if we can’t keep people from smuggling weapons onto a cruise ship, then we’re not doing a good enough job,” Watson said.  “In a similar fashion, the USS Cole bombing forced us to ask ourselves whether we could defend vulnerable civilian vessels in our port from a similar attack.  I don’t believe we were doing a good enough job before, but a lot of the new measures we’ve taken, in terms of perimeter patrolling and establishing security zones, were a response to the possibility of a Cole type of attack.” And that’s why, on this May day, the Majesty of the Seas had a Coast Guard escort as it steamed out of Miami. 

Transnational Muck

Soon after taking a sabbatical from his career as a Coast Guard officer to study innovative ways to stem the flow of illegal drugs into the United States, Cmdr.  Steve Flynn began to worry.  It seemed to him that the much-touted “war on drugs” was focusing on a symptom rather than on the darker and more troubling heart of the problem.  The phenomenon of liberalized trade, and the increasingly rapid movement of products and people through the global trading system that sustained America’s unprecedented prosperity in the 1990s, was, Flynn observed, “value-neutral.” Quite simply, thanks to the growth of “globalization,” the system moved contraband and law-breaking people just as quickly and nearly as effortlessly as it moved their legitimate counterparts.

Whenever Flynn voiced his alarm that this “transnational muck” was increasingly infiltrating the system — whether it was the tons of cocaine seized in the Port of Miami, the dead bodies of illegal Chinese immigrants found in a cargo container in Seattle, or the terrorist captured by chance at a border crossing in Washington state — the inevitable reply was that these problems were an unavoidable cost of doing business in a global economy.

“The powers-that-be treated these problems like retailers treat shoplifting:  It was regrettable, but the costs were far outweighed by the benefits of this incredibly open and efficient global trading system,” said Flynn, now a senior fellow for national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City.  “On the other hand, I came to view the illegal drug trade, in particular, like the dye that doctors run through your circulatory system to check on the state of your arteries.  I concluded illegal drugs were telling us that the global circulatory system that underpins our economy was due for a heart attack.”

In Flynn’s view, cardiac arrest occurred on Sept. 11.  Because the nation was understandably consumed in the weeks following the tragedy with the unprecedented loss of life, many Americans simply missed how rapidly the U.S.  economy was brought nearly to its knees by the government’s sudden blockade of people and goods coming into the country.  Just days after the attack, for instance, DaimlerChrysler and Ford Motor Co. announced they were shutting down numerous car assembly plants for lack of crucial parts produced in Canada and purposely delivered on a “just-in-time” basis to keep expensive inventories to a minimum.  The Canadian parts were stuck in 18-hour traffic jams at the newly tightened border.

After a number of oil tankers were barred from U.S. ports, experts began to warn that the Northeast could run out of fuel and heating oil.  The threat was real because oil refineries had also shifted to a “just-in-time” business model that left them with very little storage capacity or excess reserves of refined fuel.  Fears were so high in the days after Sept. 11 that a knife attack on the driver of a Florida-bound Greyhound led to the cessation of national bus service and the closing of the Port Authority Bus Terminal in New York City.  Agricultural crop-dusting planes were grounded, meanwhile, out of fears they could be used to spread chemical or biological weapons.  According to Flynn, Los Angeles was within days of running out of drinking water because the Transportation Department halted train shipments of chloride, a hazardous material critical to water treatment.

“After the 9/11 attacks, the twin nightmares I had always dreaded came true,” said Flynn.  “Our adversaries used our open system to wage war on us at home, and we reacted by blockading our own economy in a very heavy-handed and disruptive way.  Now I worry that we’re in even more danger than prior to the attacks, because everyone who didn’t understand our vulnerability before now has a blueprint for how to turn off the spigot of global commerce.”

In any inventory of the weaknesses in the global trade system that terrorists might try to exploit in the future, says Flynn, ports are likely to top the list.  The reason is simple:  Fully 95 percent of international goods come into the United States through its seaports, and seaborne trade accounts for 25 percent of the U.S.  gross domestic product.

“Seaports are the mega-nodes in the global commerce network, and the bad guys already know how to exploit them for drug running and cargo theft,” said Flynn, who notes that cargo theft at U.S. ports rose from an estimated $1 billion in 1990 to more than $12 billion in 2000.  With the amount of cargo entering the United States projected to double over the next decade, that figure will likely grow dramatically.  If authorities learned that on a particular day, terrorists were using or imitating the cargo theft rings involved in port crime to smuggle a weapon of mass destruction into the United States, says Flynn, screening all of the millions of 40-foot cargo containers in the system on that day would take about six months.  And, he says, each five-person Customs Service inspection team would take three hours on average to complete a thorough inspection of one container.

“During that half year, global commerce would all but grind to a halt,” Flynn said.  “So if our economy is as important to America’s strength as the Bush administration insists, that scenario should keep the director of Homeland Security and the secretaries of the Treasury, Commerce, State, and Defense departments awake at night.  Their challenge is further complicated by the fact that if we single-mindedly focus on port security as a solution, it will just displace the threat [to] somewhere else in the international transport system.”

Over There, Not Here

As a small craft maneuvers alongside the cruise ship SeaEscape, a door in the hull of the larger ship opens near the waterline.  On cue, a rope ladder drops, and a local pilot from Port Everglades climbs nimbly down, accompanied by an armed team of Coast Guard sea marshals. 

While he’s on the bridge of the SeaEscape — a Russian transport converted into a floating casino and now based in the Bahamas — the local pilot assumes full operational control.  Although the pilot is unfailingly polite to the bridge crew, following every “All ahead full!” or “Stop port engine!” with a clipped “Please,” there is no question who is in command of the ship.  As if to underscore the point, the Coast Guard sea marshals stand silent sentry on the bridge.  The screening criteria are classified, but some combination of factors in the Coast Guard’s threat assessment matrix has flagged the SeaEscape for a sea marshals’ escort out of port.

The armed escorts are part of the Coast Guard’s post-9/11 strategy that calls for controlling the movement of “higher-risk” vessels more closely, for protecting critical port infrastructure, and for providing an adequate law enforcement presence in U.S. ports to respond to possible emergencies.

By far the most far-reaching aspect of the new strategy, however, is its emphasis on increasing what the Coast Guard calls “Maritime Domain Awareness.” Essentially, Maritime Domain Awareness entails keeping better track of what craft are headed for U.S. shores before they get here.  And this forward strategy is a concession to the fact that once a weapon of mass destruction, a cargo container of terrorist stowaways, or an illegally commandeered ship enters a U.S. port, it’s probably too late.

“If you look at the security issue as a continuum that runs from awareness of the threat, to possible prevention, and on to emergency response and consequence management, what we saw on 9/11 was all on the right side of that equation in terms of dealing with the horrible consequences of a terrorist act already committed,” said Coast Guard Commandant Collins.  “By investing in technologies and capabilities that give you greater clarity and visibility of the maritime environment, we hope to be able to predict what’s coming at our ports and shorelines long before it gets here.  That will hopefully allow us to avoid another Sept. 11.”

The early emphasis in that effort has been to push the first line of defense away from U.S. shorelines.  The Coast Guard and other agencies would then have more time to react to potentially dangerous vessels and, if necessary, to intercept them at sea rather than in congested port areas strewn with high-value targets.  The Coast Guard has thus increased from 24 hours to 96 hours the advance warning that ships must give before entering U.S. ports; ships need to file their crew and cargo manifests that early too.

Last fall, Congress also made the Coast Guard a formal member of the intelligence community, able for the first time to tap into national intelligence assets such as spy satellites.  The move also gives the Coast Guard the ability to help direct the CIA’s overseas spying efforts so the Guard can glean advanced warning of potentially threatening vessels approaching U.S. shores.  This national intelligence interface will likely improve with the establishment of a Homeland Security Department, which envisions a 1,000-person Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection Division to analyze intelligence data on potential threats. 

By far the most far-reaching reforms are being contemplated by an interagency Container Working Group that is studying ways to establish a reliable “chain of custody” for all cargo.  Such a chain would include certification that a container was packed in a secure environment; that it was sealed so that its contents could not be tampered with while under way; and that it was transported under the control of a certified and responsible shipper.  Many of the working group’s expected recommendations are already contained in the maritime security legislation passed by the House and Senate.  The recommendations include requiring foreign cargo ships bound for the United States to carry special transmitting devices to signal vessel movements and to provide vital information on passengers, crew, and cargo; requiring cargo and cruise ships to electronically transmit passenger and crew manifests before arriving in U.S.  ports; and allowing the Coast Guard to turn away any vessel coming from a foreign port deemed to have “lax security.”

Not only would implementation of such a system require a far greater overseas presence by U.S.  Customs and maritime inspectors — they are already working in Canada and Singapore and soon will be in Holland — it would also require the international trade community to adopt a whole new dynamic in global trade, one that would weigh security on a par with efficiency and speed.  Although such a system would transcend national boundaries and raise questions of sovereignty, former Coast Guard Commandant Adm. James Loy proposed codifying many of the cargo security measures, at a November 2000 meeting of the International Maritime Organization in London.  The idea was greeted with a unanimous vote of approval by the organization’s general assembly.

“Cargo transparency is a tall order because this is a dynamic, global-trading system with a lot of international stakeholders involved,” Collins said.  “While I don’t think efficiency and security are mutually exclusive, achieving both will require a different mind-set where we focus as much on exports as we do on imports.  Wouldn’t it be wonderful, however, if we had an accurate understanding of a ship’s crew and cargo before it ever left Rotterdam or Hong Kong? One of the ways the world has changed since 9/11 is that we all have to incorporate those kinds of security considerations into our business practices if we want to preserve our way of life.”

A Model Port

The Port of Miami, in some ways, is lucky.  It is included in the Coast Guard’s Seventh District, which encompasses the southeastern United States and Caribbean Basin and for years has been the major front in the war against illegal drugs and illegal immigrants.  Because of that history, the port has had a head start in adopting many of the security reforms that are likely to be mandated for all U.S. ports should the maritime security bills passed by the House and Senate go through a conference committee successfully, as expected, and reach the president’s desk this summer.

The state of Florida has been helpful too, and a little ahead of the game.  After an Interagency Commission on Crime and Security in U.S. Seaports issued a report in 2000 warning of inadequate security at the nation’s seaports, the Florida Legislature enacted many of the panel’s recommendations, including establishing interagency “port security committees” to coordinate the activities of some 20 different federal, state, and local agencies.  The committees have been meeting almost nonstop since Sept. 11.

How rapidly such port security measures could be adopted nationwide, however, will depend heavily on federal funding.  Congressional Democrats have slammed the Bush administration, for instance, for threatening vetoes of two emergency spending bills passed since Sept. 11 because they contained additional money for port security grants.  Port officials have collectively requested about $700 million in federal grants for critical security needs.

In the meantime, the short-term fixes have undoubtedly increased security at the Port of Miami.  But the Coast Guard’s Watson wonders aloud whether they are enough.  He wonders whether his port is, in military parlance, sufficiently “hardened” to resist or divert a terrorist attack.

“We have definitely raised the security bar in our ports, and I don’t feel like we’re a soft target.  But to judge how hard we are compared to other targets — or whether the entire transportation network as a whole presents a soft target — you would have to get into the mind of the terrorists themselves.  At the end of the day, my hope is that the terrorists will look at the Port of Miami and decide that we’re just a little too hard, compared to other potential targets.”


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U.S. Response II:  Congress to Delay Possible Changes to FBI and CIA

According to White House sources, the U.S. Congress plans to suspend any reorganization of the FBI and CIA until it completes on the proposed homeland security department, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, June 28).

Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.) has decided to wait to make any changes to the FBI and CIA, according to the Post.  The committee is expected to produce the legislation that would create the homeland security department.

“I think it’s so controversial that it might delay and obstruct the passage and creation of the new department,” Lieberman said last week during a committee hearing.

The suspension will make the new department dependent on the two agencies for gathering domestic intelligence, according to the Post.  It will also delay any plans to remove the domestic intelligence-gathering mission from the FBI and transfer it to a new internal security service, the Post reported.

Lieberman said he envisions the homeland security department as mainly an “aggressive, agile and demanding ... consumer of intelligence,” that is would operate without its own “operational or collecting capability.”  Lieberman is also expected to give the new department the authority to access raw intelligence data and to order the CIA, the FBI and military intelligence agencies to collect specific information, according to the Post.

The joint House of Representatives-Senate intelligence committee plans to examine whether a different domestic intelligence-gathering system is needed (see GSN, June 5), said Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Bob Graham (D-Fla.).  There are three areas that need to be examined to determine whether a new approach is necessary — the potential targets of surveillance, the legal methods that would be used to gather information and the control of collected information, Graham said.

“We’ll have to come back and have the national debate over intelligence gathering,” he said.

An FBI agent recently said he has questions over the new bureau rules to allow field agents to begin a counterterrorism investigation without pre-approval from headquarters.

“I’m worried about six or seven years from now when there are five or six Arab-American members of Congress and they call me before some committee to grill me on my actions against their people,” the FBI agent said (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, July 2).


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Weapons of Mass Destruction

Iraq:  Baghdad Continues to Waver on U.N. Inspectors

Baghdad has indicated that Iraqi delegates scheduled to meet with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan this week might not give a concrete answer on the whether Iraq plans to allow U.N. weapons inspectors to return to the country, Reuters reported today (see GSN, July 1).

A delegation led by Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri is expected to meet with Annan Thursday in Vienna, according to Reuters.  Annan has said he wants a “decisive” result to the meeting.

“We cannot keep talking forever and I would hope that we will be able to yield some results,” Annan said.  “I would want to see a decisive meeting.”

Some Iraqi officials, however, have said there is no point in allowing U.N. weapons inspectors to return to Iraq if the United States is set on a regime change.  Iraq is ready to readmit the U.N. inspectors “in principle,” but with conditions, said Iraqi U.N. Ambassador Mohammed Aldouri.  Iraq first wants answers to U.S. threats, progress on lifting the U.N. sanctions and an end to no-flight zones, Aldouri said.  Iraq also wants guarantees that there will be no spies among U.N. inspections teams, he said, adding that Israel must get rid of its nuclear weapons.

“We have received some answers to some but not for the most important questions,” Aldouri said.

Some analysts have said Iraq has no incentive to readmit U.N. inspectors.  Other experts, however, have said the presence of the U.N. inspectors might help delay any type of military action.

“It could be their best national defense policy,” said Charles Duelfer, former deputy executive chairman of the U.N. weapons inspection unit (Reuters/New York Times, July 2).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime)

U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”)

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Sanctions Revisions

IAEA Iraq Action Team


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Nuclear Weapons

Kazakhstan:  International Partners to Convert Former Weapons Plant

A former Soviet nuclear weapons plant in Kazakhstan will be converted to civilian use under a new agreement announced by U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham yesterday (see GSN, June 4).

Under the U.S.-Kazakh agreement, the ULBA Metallurgical Plant will be converted to produce commercial copper beryllium master alloy.  The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration will provide expertise and $1.5 million for the project.  Los Alamos National Laboratory will provide technical assistance, according to a NNSA press release.  U.S. firms Brush Wellman Inc. and RWE NUKEM Inc. will partner with ULBA under the agreement.  The two firms will also provide $4 million for the project, while ULBA has pledged $4.5 million.

“The successful transition of ULBA from a nuclear weapons plant to a viable commercial entity is critical to U.S. national security,” Abraham said.  “Our new project represents a superior combination of private enterprise and trade investment with the nonproliferation objectives shared by both our nations” (U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration release, July 1).

The ULBA facility was previously a storage site for about 600 kilograms of weapon-grade highly enriched uranium, according to a 1998 report prepared by the Monterey Institute of International Studies.  The United States removed the uranium from the site in 1994 (Monterey Institute of International Studies release, March 1998).


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India-Pakistan:  U.S. Wants to Mediate, Help Avert Future Crises

The Bush administration has decided to increase diplomatic involvement in South Asia, particularly in relation to the dispute over Kashmir, in an attempt to avert another crisis between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan, according to media reports (see GSN, June 24).

“It might be three months, it might be nine months, but we all know that India and Pakistan will go back to the brink again,” a senior U.S. official said.  “Maybe next time they will go over the brink.”

The United States, which has previously accepted India’s refusal to allow a third party to mediate its dispute with Pakistan, is quietly changing that position with the support of its allies, the Financial Times reported yesterday.

“We are already de facto mediators on the Kashmir dispute, and there’s a recognition that this time we must stay involved,” the official said.

Several U.S. analysts also have said that the United States must be involved (see GSN, June 10).

“The level of hatred and distrust between India and Pakistan is so great that there is almost zero chance either would listen to the other’s proposals,” said George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  “Nothing will happen without the close involvement of the U.S.”

Recent U.S. diplomatic success in easing tensions might provide an opening for more involvement, according to the Times.  The United States obtained a pledge from Pakistan to permanently end infiltration of militants into Indian-controlled Kashmir and convinced India to return its navy to homeport and open airspace to Pakistani aircraft.

India is now more likely to trust the United States and knows that New Delhi alone cannot force Pakistan to end support for Islamic militants, according to the Times.  India now sees U.S. involvement as indispensable, the Times reported.  Also, Pakistan knows it cannot renew support to militants without severe consequences.

“If Pakistan continued to export violence to its neighbors as an instrument of foreign policy, its survival as a country would ultimately come into doubt,” said Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution.

The United States is unlikely to pressure India and Pakistan overtly.  U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, who helped resolve the latest crisis, said the United States will act as a “facilitator” rather than a mediator.

U.S. leaders do, however, have a plan for a peace process in South Asia, according to the Times.  Under the U.S. vision, Pakistan would follow up on its promise to crack down on militants and begin to dismantle their camps and infrastructure.  In exchange, India would reduce its military forces along the border.  India and Pakistan would then enter into formal talks and eventually the two countries would agree to formalize the Line of Control dividing Kashmir into an international border that would be open to both Kashmiri communities.  India would agree to establish a “supra-Kashmir” authority to promote cross-border cooperation.

Officials are concerned about two circumstances that might derail a peace process.  First, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s power and stability as a leader could be eroded if the Pakistani military believes he has surrendered Kashmir.  Second, India could react harshly if militants conduct another high-profile attack — and the United States believes there are al-Qaeda operatives in the area who might carry out such an attack (see GSN, June 14; Edward Luce, Financial Times, July 1).

For further information, see:

Stimson Center Background on Kashmir

Pakistani Embassy to the United States

Indian Embassy to the United States


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Egypt:  Officials Plan for Nuclear Power, Dismiss Weapons Reports

Egypt plans to build its first nuclear energy plant, Egyptian Electricity and Energy Minister Hassan Ahmed Younis said Saturday, according to the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz.  In addition to building the plant northwest of Alexandria, officials intend to repair and upgrade the local electricity network, he said.

Younis’ announcement came a week after the German newspaper Die Welt said that Egypt might be seeking to build nuclear weapons (see GSN, June 25).  China is helping Egypt produce enriched uranium, the daily reported (Daniel Sobelman, Ha’aretz, July 1).

China, however, denied that it is helping Egypt develop nuclear weapons.  A Chinese Embassy spokesman in Cairo said Sunday that China has signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and has taken serious steps to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, the spokesman said (Cairo Middle East News Agency, June 30 in FBIS-NES, July 1).

U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton is expected to visit Israel in the coming days to discuss ways to curb the threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, Ha’aretz reported today.  The United States has no concerns about Egypt in terms of nuclear weapons, a U.S. official said, calling the Die Welt report “disinformation.”

Israeli intelligence services also discounted the report.

“We have no proof that Egypt is involved in a military nuclear program.  It has a certain degree of capability and infrastructure, but as far as we know it made the decision not to go down that route,” a senior Israeli official said (Aluf Benn, Ha’aretz, July 2).

According to yesterday’s Ha’aretz report, Egypt has neither confirmed nor denied the Die Welt story (Sobelman, Ha’aretz).  Die Welt, however, reported that Egyptian officials have said the country is not seeking a nuclear weapon capability (Jacques Schuster, Die Welt, June 22, Global Security Newswire translation).

For further information, see:

NPT Text

NPT members

U.N. Background on NPT

Carnegie Endowment Nuclear Status Map


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North Korea:  Delegation Studies Nuclear Safety in South Korea

A North Korean delegation arrived in South Korea today to begin 26 days of classes on how to safely operate two nuclear reactors currently under construction in North Korea, according to South Korean officials (see GSN, June 25).

The 25 officials will participate in the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety education program and will visit nuclear power plants in Uljin in North Gyeongsang Province, a South Korean Unification Ministry official said (see GSN, Jan. 2).  The education program is sponsored by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, the international consortium that is building the reactors in North Korea as part of the 1994 Agreed Framework, in which North Korea agreed to freeze its nuclear program.

The delegation’s visit will proceed despite a North Korean-South Korean naval clash Saturday that killed at least four South Korean sailors, the ministry official said (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, July 3).

South Korean President Kim Dae-jung said today that his country will respond more severely “if North Korea tries to hurt us again with military force,” but he added that he plans to continue his policy of engaging North Korea in dialogue (Paul Shin, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, July 2).

Other North Korean delegations have visited South Korea as part of the KEDO project, including 10 North Koreans who inspected two airports in May to prepare for a proposed direct air route between the two countries for transporting workers and materials for the nuclear reactors (see GSN, May 21).  Another 123 North Korean technicians are scheduled to visit South Korea for training in the last quarter of this year (Seo, Korea Herald).

For further information, see:

Agreed Framework Text

KEDO


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Biological Weapons

Anthrax:  Postal Service to Spend $35 Million on Decontamination

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Postal Service plans to spend $35 million to decontaminate two postal facilities that were tainted with anthrax and have remained shuttered since last fall’s attacks, a Postal Service spokeswoman said yesterday (see GSN, June 28).

The funds will cover the costs of decontaminating the Brentwood Road postal facility in Washington and the Trenton, N.J., Postal Processing and Distribution Center, said spokeswoman Monica Hand.  Ashland Inc. and Sabre Oxidation Technologies have been awarded the contracts to clean the two facilities, Hand said, adding that the Postal Service will buy the chemicals and equipment needed for the projects.

There has been no specific date set yet for the cleanup projects to begin, Hand said, but fumigation of the two facilities with chlorine dioxide gas is expected to begin this summer.  The Trenton facility is scheduled to be decontaminated once work at Brentwood is completed, Hand said.

The Postal Service will “just keep doing it till you no longer get growth of spores on samples,” Hand said.

Irradiation Sickness?

Meanwhile, a report scheduled to be released today says that irradiation, used to sterilize pieces of mail sent to members of Congress since the anthrax attacks, might be responsible for several health complaints reported by congressional staff members, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 20).

The report, prepared by the congressional Office of Compliance, says that testing conducted on the air from irradiated mailbags and congressional mailrooms found trace amounts of chemical irritants, according to the Times.

“While we do not believe these chemical irritants are life-threatening, we believe further study is essential to determine the effects of extended exposure to irradiated mail, particularly in restricted work areas,” the Times quoted the report as saying.

According to the Times, the office recommends that congressional staff members be monitored, that more studies be performed and that preventive measures, such as airing mail before it is handled, be conducted.


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Threat Assessment:  U.S. Should Expect Another Attack, Expert Says

U.S. bioterrorism expert Michael Osterholm warned environmental health experts Sunday that another biological weapons attack will probably occur in the United States (see GSN, June 20).

Another biological weapons attack could perhaps come in the form of anthrax spores placed in the ventilation system of a building, which would infect a large number of people before it could be detected, said Osterholm, a special adviser to Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson, speaking at a meeting in Minneapolis (see GSN, May 14).  Or, terrorists could attempt an attack by poisoning a tanker truck of unpasteurized milk with botulinum bacteria before the milk is processed and distributed, Osterholm said.

“You wouldn’t have enough body bags in Minnesota to handle that event if it occurred here,” he said.  “That kind of situation does exist.”

The U.S. environmental health system needs to be changed to reduce the more than 4,000 separate departments competing for funds, Osterholm said.  The system also needs to recruit 15,000 new professionals to provide new and better ideas, he said.

“We need some rabble-rousers,” Osterholm said.  “We need some people willing to shake the system ... We get too comfortable telling ourselves what a good job we’re doing” (Craig Gustafson, Associated Press, July 1).

For further information, see:

CDC Frequently Asked Questions on Anthrax

Journal of the American Medical Association Background on Anthrax

Journal of the American Medical Association Background on Botulinum Toxin

CDC Basic Botulism Information


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Chemical Weapons



Missile Proliferation



Missile Defense

U.S.-Russia:  Joint Missile Defense Program Unlikely, Russian Official Says

By Kerry Boyd
Global Security Newswire

There is little chance that Russia and the United States will cooperatively develop any missile defense system, Alexei Arbatov, vice chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee for Defense, said Friday (see GSN, July 1). 

Some U.S. officials have mentioned the possibility of cooperation, but so far no actual joint plans or programs have been created, Arbatov said at a press conference.  Negotiations will probably not go far beyond the discussion stage, he said.

The legislator identified three obstacles to missile defense cooperation.  A joint system, he said, would be antithetical to mutual deterrence, it would require a much closer relationship between the two countries and it would require U.S. defense contractors to share business with their Russian counterparts.

Theoretically, Russia and the United States might engage in strategic missile defense if their relationship would change significantly and move beyond “the principles of mutual deterrence,” Arbatov said.  Such a change, however, would require restructuring both countries’ nuclear forces more extensively than the recent Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, which the two countries signed in Moscow in May (see GSN, May 24).

“We cannot retain relations of mutual deterrence when … both of us try to maintain the deterrence potential through the possibility of a retaliatory strike and at the same time jointly create missile defense, at least a strategic one,” Arbatov said.

The United States continues to gear its strategic policy toward Russia, said Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Geopolitical Problems Academy, who also spoke at the press conference.

“The technological parameters of the U.S. ABM defense system are, above all, anti-Russian and anti-Chinese,” he said.

The distance that remains in the relationship between Russia and the United States is another barrier, Arbatov said.

“Joint missile defense presupposes a close military-political alliance, closer than the alliance between the U.S. and its NATO allies,” he said.  The United States, which is hesitant to share military secrets even with its close NATO allies, would be very unlikely to share such information with Russia, he said.

Russia, too, is unlikely to share technology with the United States, Ivashov said.  There might be minor exchanges of defense-related technology and products between the two countries, but Russia will not be ready to reveal defense secrets to other countries, he said.

Finally, the U.S. defense industry is unlikely to be willing to share major missile defense contracts with Russian companies.

“They want these contracts all for themselves,” Arbatov said.  The companies might share some minor technology and activities, such as conducting joint tests, “but they will do so more as political advertising,” he said.

As an alternative to joint missile defense, Arbatov advocated setting limits on future missile defense programs “to protect ourselves from third countries and threshold countries while not undermining mutual strategic deterrence,” he said.

Arbatov criticized the Russian military and President Vladimir Putin for surrendering too many “bargaining chips in the form of our own offensive and defense arms programs,” adding that Russia’s position has become so weak that the United States is no longer interested in holding serious strategic arms negotiations.

The war on terrorism, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, relations with NATO and the new reductions treaty “reflect the positions of the U.S. and its allies by 90 percent and Russia’s position by 10 percent,” Arbatov said.

Ivashov also expressed concern.  The Moscow treaty “essentially lays down the transition today from parity in strategic offensive weapons to a unilateral superiority of the United States,” he said (RIA Novosti news agency/Federal News Service Transcript, June 28).

For further information, see:

ABM Treaty Text

U.S. Fact Sheet on Withdrawal from ABM Treaty

Moscow Treaty Text

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Arms Reduction Treaty

MDA Basics of Missile Defense

MDA Missile Defense System


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Israel:  House Increases Arrow Co-Development Funds

The U.S. House of Representatives approved a $64 million increase to the Bush administration’s request to fund co-production of the Arrow missile defense system with Israel, Aerospace Daily reported last week (see GSN, May 7).

The House approved the increase in the fiscal 2003 defense appropriations bill last week (see GSN, July 1).  Israel Aircraft Industries, the principal Arrow contractor, plans to build a U.S. production plant with U.S. defense contractor Boeing to increase the missile production rate for Arrow (Aerospace Daily, June 27).

For further information, see:

MDA Terminal Defense Segment

Federation of American Scientists Background on Arrow


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