U.S. Response I:  Byrd Voices Challenge to Civil-Service Waiver

Senator Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) yesterday attacked President George W. Bush’s demand that homeland security department legislation authorize the White House to waive civil-service protections for workers (see GSN, July 31).

Senate leaders had hoped to pass the legislation this week before the August recess, but Byrd has been using Senate rules to slow the process, according to the Wall Street Journal.  His aim, he has said, is to force more careful consideration of the bill.

The legislation has mostly bipartisan support except on the issue of the civil-service waiver, the Journal reported.  The House of Representatives passed legislation that included a waiver but provided less presidential authority than Bush had requested.  The White House is considering vetoing any bill that lacks a waiver authority, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said last week.

Yesterday Byrd accused the Bush administration of targeting “the job security of thousands of federal employees and the core values of rights for the worker which they represent.”  He said the waiver would be damaging to border patrol, customs, airport and other workers who would be part of the new department.

“There’s nothing like threatening jobs and health benefits,” he said, “to give a boost … to the morale of the employees of a new and very important department.”

U.S. Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge said yesterday that a civil-service waiver would provide the necessary “managerial flexibility” needed to respond to the threat of terrorism.  Hiring a bioterrorism expert, for example, can take up to five months under current federal procedures, Ridge said (Jackie Calmes, Wall Street Journal, Aug. 1).

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U.S. Response II:  Officials Request Inspectors in South Korean Ports

The United States has said it wants to inspect cargo on U.S.-bound ships in South Korean ports, South Korean officials said yesterday.

U.S. Ambassador Thomas Hubbard Tuesday asked South Korean Maritime and Fisheries Affairs Minister Kim Ho-shik for permission to allow a team of U.S. customs agents to conduct spot checks on cargo headed for the United States.  U.S. officials also suggested installing advanced security equipment to search for dangerous materials inside cargo containers, the Korea Herald reported.

The U.S. request appears to stem from a new U.S. law calling on U.S. authorities to refuse cargo from countries with weak security systems, a South Korean official said (see GSN, June 7).

“We passed on our position in principle to study the proposal.  But it is too early to say whether we will comply because the decision requires discussion with related ministries,” the official said.

“We believe the U.S. has made similar proposals to the Netherlands (see GSN, June 25) and Singapore (see GSN, June 5),” the official added (Lee Joo-hee, Korea Herald, Aug. 1).

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U.S. Response III:  White House Delays New Chemical Regulations

The White House is delaying implementation of proposed regulations that would require chemical plants to receive inspectors and tighten security to better defend against the terrorist threat, the New York Daily News reported today (see GSN, July 30).

The Environmental Protection Agency planned to release new regulations in June to require heightened security to combat the possibility that terrorists might attack chemical facilities, according to the News (see GSN, June 13).  The White House, however, refused to give the agency permission to release the regulations, citing concerns that information on specific vulnerabilities of chemical facilities would be made public, sources said.

The agency also wants the chemical industry to replace dangerous chemicals with safer ones when possible, the News reported (Kenneth Bazinet, New York Daily News, Aug. 1).

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International Response:  U.S. and ASEAN Agree to Share Resources

The 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the United States signed a pact today to help combat terrorism by increasing information sharing and police cooperation (see GSN, July 31).

Under the agreement, the United States will increase technical and logistical assistance to the region.

The ASEAN members — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — have been meeting in Brunei (Slobodan Lekic, Associated Press, Aug. 1).

ASEAN Regional Forum participants signed an additional agreement Tuesday to crack down on terrorist funding.  The 10 ASEAN members plus the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the European Union agreed to work individually and together to immediately freeze terrorists’ assets, publish the names of certain terrorists and fight financial abuses including money laundering and other abuses related to terrorism financing.

The countries agreed to close terrorists’ access to their financial systems in accordance with U.N. Security Council resolution 1373 (see GSN, June 28; Anuraj Manibhandu, Bangkok Post, Aug. 1).

In addition, Malaysia and Australia have said they plan to sign an agreement tomorrow to promote intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation, according to the Associated Press (Lekic, Associated Press).

For more information, see:

ASEAN

ARF Statement on Measures Against Terrorist Financing

U.N. Security Resolution 1373

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Iraq:  Invasion Might Provoke WMD Response, Experts Warn U.S. Congress

By Bryan Bender
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Several experts warned U.S. lawmakers yesterday that a military invasion to topple Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein might spark exactly what the United States is trying to avoid:  Iraq using weapons of mass destruction or transferring them to terrorists.

At the same time, the experts — former U.N. weapons inspectors, retired military commanders, Iraqi defectors and Middle East analysts — agreed that Iraq’s suspected pursuit of outlawed chemical, biological and nuclear weapons requires the United States to act sooner rather than later.  According to one former Iraqi nuclear engineer, Iraq could probably have three nuclear bombs as early as 2005.

The experts testified in the first of a series of public hearings by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to consider Bush administration plans to topple the Iraqi regime, labeled by President George W. Bush as part of an ‘axis of evil’ for its development of catastrophic weapons and ties to terrorists (see GSN, July 31).

The testimony highlighted the pitfalls of current U.S. policy toward Iraq.  While there is widespread agreement on the need to remove Hussein from power, there is growing concern that the kind of conventional military assault that the Pentagon is considering would make the situation dramatically worse than it is now.  Some analysts have urged officials to continue the current policy of containment while making nonmilitary efforts to effect a regime change.

Some experts said yesterday that the Iraqi leader might be more inclined to unleash weapons of mass destruction if his hold on power is threatened — unlike during the Gulf War, when the United States limited its aims liberating Kuwait.  The prospect that Hussein might deploy his suspected arsenal of chemical or biological weapons during a U.S. military buildup in the region — or after an invasion begins — has frustrated the U.S. military’s preliminary war planning (see GSN, July 18).

“We need to weigh the risk of action versus inaction,” said committee chairman Senator Joseph Biden (D-Del.).

Invasion Might Heighten Threat

The Bush administration’s preliminary military planning, which according to press reports includes a variety of conventional air, land and sea operations calling for hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops, may not be worth the risk, some experts said.

While Iraq is a shadow of its former self, it retains a large military force that cannot be discounted.  Much more ominous, the details of its WMD capabilities remain largely a mystery after it has banned United Nations weapons inspectors for nearly four years, experts told the committee.

“Efforts to dismiss the military capabilities of Iraq are dangerous and irresponsible,” said Anthony Cordesman, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  “To be careless about this war would be a disaster.”

Although the United States is expected to ultimately prevail in any potential military confrontation with Iraq, the cost could be enormous.  In fact, the result might be what the United States is trying to prevent, the experts said.

Morton Halperin, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told the Senate panel that a large-scale military invasion of Iraq could make WMD use much more likely than is currently the case.  He warned that, faced with removal from power, Hussein might unleash his arsenal as a last resort against U.S. troops or neighboring countries.

A “critical national interest is to prevent the regime from using weapons of mass destruction,” he said.  The question is whether the current policy of containment or a military invasion “will make it more likely.” 

An invasion, he said, would probably trigger the kind of catastrophe “that the policy overhaul is said to be seeking to avoid.”  He said the United States must be “prepared for enough force to march to Baghdad and to accept the risk of very substantial casualties,” including from WMD attacks on civilians in neighboring countries such as Israel.

“That is a grave risk to take in the event of an invasion,” said retired Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Hoar, commander of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf after the war.  He testified that an invasion would be a “risky business.”

Most worrisome, according to Halperin, is the possibility an invasion would lead Hussein to cooperate with terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda seeking weapons of mass destruction.  While some members of al-Qaeda are believed to be seeking refuge in Iraq and links have been made to a Kurdish faction, lawmakers were told it is unlikely that Hussein has transferred weapons of mass destruction to terrorists.

“Given his psychology and aspirations, Saddam would be reluctant to share with others what he believes to be an indelible source of his own power,” said Richard Butler, former head of the U.N. Special Commission in Iraq, the weapons inspectors that left the country in 1998 (see GSN, July 29).

If Hussein believes that the United States is going to topple him whether he allows new U.N. weapons inspectors or not, Halperin said, he would probably make a deal with terrorists seeking to use weapons of mass destruction.

There is currently no evidence, “that I know of,” of a transfer of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction to terrorists, but “I think there have been conversations … about … the business of making biological and chemical weapons,” Butler told the committee.

Time is Running Out

While debate continues over how to proceed with toppling Hussein — from a military invasion to covert efforts to remove him from power — lawmakers yesterday were warned that time is running out.

Khidir Hamza, a former Iraqi nuclear engineer, said that according to German intelligence Hussein has an estimated 10 tons of uranium that could be enriched to make bomb-grade material in three years (see GSN, July 26).

Engineers are pursuing chemical and biological weapons at as many as 300 hidden makeshift labs throughout Iraq, many of which are interspersed with legitimate commercial activities, Hamza added.

“Saddam has managed, from the experience of the last 11 years, to create the perfect cover and in effect turn the whole Iraq science and engineering enterprise into a giant weapon-making body,” he said.

While a neat solution to the problem remains out of reach, experts agreed it would be increasingly difficult to address as Hussein remains in power and his appetite for nuclear weapons remains unabated.

“If you defer, put off to another day the solution to this serious problem, it will only be harder and costlier in the end,” Butler said.

“One thing is clear,” Biden added.  “These weapons must be dislodged from Saddam, or Saddam must be dislodged from power.”

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U.S.-Russia:  NNSA Values Stockpile Maintenance Above Dismantlement

By Kerry Boyd
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The agency responsible for maintaining the U.S. nuclear stockpile said today that it does not want to accelerate existing warhead dismantlement programs to accommodate the U.S.-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (see GSN, July 10).

The treaty does not require either country to dismantle nuclear warheads, said Everet Beckner, deputy administrator for defense programs at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, in testimony before the Strategic Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“Any plan to increase dismantlements prior to at least FY [fiscal] 2014 would compete for resources with critical refurbishment or evaluation work,” he said.  “NNSA prefers to retain flexibility in setting any resulting disassembly schedules [from the treaty] so as not to interfere with ongoing refurbishments and surveillance activities.”

In testimony earlier this year, U.S. officials said that some warheads removed from active service under the treaty would be dismantled (see GSN, July 25).

The United States already has “a busy dismantlement program,” Beckner said.  He added, however, that the pace of dismantlement has decreased because the NNSA has dismantled a majority of retired warheads.

The administration plans to complete disassembly of the W79 artillery-fired atomic projectile next year, Beckner said.  Work to disassemble W56 warheads for Minuteman II ICBMs will continue through fiscal 2005, and the Nuclear Posture Review “reaffirmed” that the W62 Minuteman III ICBM warhead will be retired by fiscal 2009, he said.  In addition, the NNSA plans to begin disassembly of the B53 strategic bomb and some excess B61 nonstrategic bombs soon, he added.

Extending the Life of Nuclear Weapons

Meanwhile, the United States is working to extend the life of warheads in the nuclear arsenal, Beckner told the subcommittee.

“The life extension work will involve the entire weapons complex,” he said, adding that life extension programs are essential to ensuring the United States has “a safe and reliable stockpile for the next 30 years.”

The White House has requested $367 million for fiscal 2003 for stockpile stewardship activities at the NNSA’s Pantex Plant in Texas, the only U.S. facility that assembles and dissasembles nuclear weapons, Beckner said (see GSN, May 2).  To maintain the U.S. nuclear arsenal, the facility needs upgrades that include refurbishing more than 20 work areas where warheads are taken apart, he said.  The NNSA also plans to hire and train more than 100 new technicians to work at Pantex in the next 10 years, he added.

Work to refurbish the W87, currently the warhead on the MX Peacekeeper ICBM, is more than 60 percent complete, Beckner said.

“The warhead will be mated to the Minuteman III missile following deactivation of the Peacekeeper missile,” he said.

The NNSA is overhauling the W76, the warhead on Trident submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and plans to replace the trajectory-sensing signal, neutron generators and tritium bottles for the W80, a cruise missile warhead, and will refurbish the secondary for the B61 bomb, Beckner said.

According to Beckner, general life extension plans include:

*         Manufacturing non-nuclear components at the Kansas City NNSA plant;

*         Refurbishing “the secondaries” at the Y-12 National Security Complex;

*         Producing gas transfer systems at the Savannah River Tritium Facility;

*         Producing neutron generators at Sandia National Laboratories;

*         Assembling and disassembling weapons at the Pantex plant, and

*         Using Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore national laboratories to certify nuclear warhead design performance.

For further information, see:

NNSA

U.S.-Russia Nuclear Reduction Treaty Text (U.S. State Department)

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Moscow Treaty

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Iran:  U.S. Officials Prod Russia on Nuclear Assistance

Two top U.S. officials voiced concerns about Russian nuclear assistance to Iran yesterday in meetings in Moscow (see GSN, July 30).

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton met with Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev.  The officials discussed U.S. concerns about Iran, sources said, although no official details were released (United Press International, July 31).

The meetings followed an announcement last week of Russian plans to build as many as six nuclear power reactors in Iran — surpassing a current project to build one reactor at Bushehr, which the United States has also opposed (see GSN, July 29).

The United States is very concerned about Russia’s current nuclear assistance to Iran and its proposals to expand that cooperation, Abraham said today.

“We consistently urge Russia to cease all nuclear cooperation with Iran, including its assistance to the reactor in Bushehr,” he said.  Iran is “aggressively pursuing nuclear weapons as well as weapons of mass destruction,” and civil nuclear assistance would help Iran accelerate its nuclear program, he added.

Iran has denied charges that it is trying to develop nuclear weapons capabilities (Dmitry Zhdannikov, Reuters/Yahoo.com, Aug. 1).

Russian officials told the U.S. delegates yesterday that the country’s cooperation with Iran is purely economic and does not violate any nonproliferation agreement that Russia has signed, a Russian official familiar with the talks said (United Press International).

Elsewhere, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell voiced U.S. concerns about Iran’s nuclear program during lunch with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov yesterday on the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 31).  Ivanov promised to consider the situation, but he added that the nuclear plant would not help Iran develop nuclear weapons, according to the AP (George Gedda, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Aug. 1).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Renews U.S. Dialogue as Officials Plan Visit

North Korea and the United States have agreed to resume dialogue and schedule a visit from a U.S. envoy, North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun said today.

Although officials have not yet selected a date for the envoy — U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly — to go to the North, “the United States will inform us very soon,” Paek said (see GSN, July 31).  U.S. officials had postponed a proposed trip by Kelly in July after North and South Korea engaged in a naval skirmish in late June (see GSN, July 3).

U.S. officials did not immediately comment today on Paek’s announcement, which followed an informal meeting yesterday between Paek and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell during an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting.  A senior State Department official said yesterday that North Korea had indicated it would “welcome a proposal for further discussions.”  The United States had planned to prepare a proposal as soon as Powell consulted with U.S. President George W. Bush, the official said.

Also during the conference yesterday, Paek met with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi.  Japan has agreed to send a delegation to North Korea this month, the New York Times reported.

South Korea said it plans to send a team to North Korea tomorrow to discuss renewing formal talks in August.  European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said he hopes that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il will visit South Korean President Kim Dae-jung in Seoul before presidential elections in December.  The South’s president is required to step down when his five-year term ends in February, according to the Times (Reuters/New York Times, Aug. 1).

KEDO Prepares to Pour Concrete

Meanwhile, U.S. special envoy Jack Pritchard is scheduled to visit North Korea Aug. 7 to attend a ceremony marking the pouring of concrete for the foundations of two nuclear power reactors, South Korean officials said yesterday (see GSN, July 29).

The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, a U.S.-led consortium, is building the reactors in exchange for a freeze on other North Korean nuclear activities.  Pritchard, a member of KEDO’s executive board, will attend a board meeting in Seoul Monday and then fly to North Korea for the ceremony, an organization official said.  The ceremony is expected to involve 150 KEDO delegates, including officials and journalists, the Korea Herald reported.

In a related development, a North Korean Air Koryo passenger jet completed a test flight July 20 on a new air route to connect North and South Korea (see GSN, May 21).  The organization expects the route to enhance its ability to transport workers and materials for building the nuclear plant (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, Aug. 1).

KEDO officials have continued to warn, however, that there are still issues that must be resolved.  North Korea must allow international inspectors to gain access to its nuclear facilities before KEDO will deliver key parts for the power plant, said Chang Sun-sup, chair of the organization’s executive board.

Full inspections, which will probably take three to four years to complete, must start next year to allow for delivery of key components by 2005, Chang said.  The plant’s construction has been delayed by six years and is now slated for completion in 2009, according to Agence France-Presse (Agence France-Presse, Aug. 1).

For further information, see:

Agreed Framework Text

KEDO

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Russia:  Senate Advances Waiver for Destroying Russian Chemical Weapons

The U.S. Senate yesterday approved a measure to allow the U.S. president to waive restrictions currently preventing the United States from aiding Russian chemical weapon destruction activities (see GSN, July 25).

The Senate, which approved the measure as an amendment to the $355.4 billion fiscal 2003 defense appropriations bill, was expected to pass the bill today.  The White House has objected to certain provisions in the bill but expressed support for passing it, according to the Associated Press (Associated Press/New York Times, Aug. 1).

The amendment would grant the president authority to waive congressional requirements that have held up U.S. funds for destroying more than 2 million chemical weapons stored in Shchuchye, Russia (see GSN, April 8).

“During a recent trip to Shchuchye, Russian scientists told me that the weapons stored at that site could kill the entire world’s population 20 times over,” said Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), who introduced the amendment.  “These powerful weapons and their small size means that they are prime targets for terrorists.  Therefore, it is incumbent that we help the Russians destroy these weapons, therefore removing them forever from the possibility that terrorists will acquire them” (Lugar press release, July 31).

[EDITOR'S NOTE:  Richard Lugar is a Nuclear Threat Initiative board member.  NTI is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by National Journal Group.]

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