Iraq I:  Inspectors Find No “Smoking Guns,” Blix Says

U.N weapons inspectors operating within Iraq have so far found no “smoking guns” that would demonstrate that Baghdad is attempting to develop weapons of mass destruction, U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix told reporters at the United Nations today (see GSN, Jan. 8).

“We have now been there for some two months and been covering the country in ever wider sweeps and we haven’t found any smoking guns,” Blix said before briefing the U.N. Security Council with International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed ElBaradei.

While inspectors have found little evidence to support the U.S. and British claims that Iraq has continued to develop weapons of mass destruction, the declaration was incomplete, Blix told the gathered reporters.

“We think that the declaration failed to answer a great many questions,” Blix said (Associated Press/London Independent, Jan. 9).

Today’s Security Council briefing was scheduled primarily for the benefit of the five new members who joined at the start of the year, according to Agence France-Presse.  The new members have had little time to analyze the Iraqi declaration, which was submitted to the council last month.

The next important date in the inspections timeline is Jan. 27, when Blix and ElBaradei are scheduled to provide the Security Council with a 60-day update on inspections.  South Africa, on behalf of the U.N. nonaligned nations group, has asked council president France to arrange for the Jan. 27 briefing to be made public, AFP reported.

The United States, however, is “completely against” the idea, a council diplomat said (Agence France-Presse/BusinessDay, Jan. 9).

Although its declaration is considered incomplete, Iraq has not tried to impede the inspectors’ operations, leading some officials to speculate that U.N.-sanctioned military activites against Iraq are unlikely to approved soon.

“Realistically, it is not going to be easy to see in the next two months that we will be able to say that Iraq is not cooperating,” a diplomat said (David Usborne, London Independent, Jan. 9).

Intelligence-Sharing

France has called on other countries to provide inspectors with any intelligence information they might have concerning Iraq’s WMD programs, according to the Associated Press.  France wants the Security Council to implement a resolution calling on countries to provide inspectors with information on Iraq’s “prohibited programs” and to recommend sites to be visited and personnel to be interviewed, French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin said yesterday.

“All countries with specific information must convey it,” de Villepin said Tuesday during a press conference in Moscow (Edith Lederer, Associated Press, Jan. 9).

Over the past several days, the United States has begun providing inspectors with “significant” intelligence information that has allowed them to be “more aggressive and to be more comprehensive in the work they’re doing,” U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 20, 2002).

While Powell did not detail what information was being provided, he said, “we want to flood this up” with information that would help inspectors carry out their mission. 

The United States is still holding back, however, on providing inspectors with some of its most sensitive intelligence and is waiting to see if inspectors “are able to handle it and exploit it,” Powell said.  “It is not a matter of opening up every door that we have,” he added.

The Bush administration has also provided the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the IAEA with an outline on how to conduct interviews with Iraqi WMD personnel outside the country, Powell said.  “I don’t know that it’s all glued together yet, but I know that (the inspectors) know there are ways to do that,” he said.

Blix has recently been receiving new intelligence information from the United States, although it “is a little opaque,” a U.N. source said.  IAEA inspectors still need “more specific information to act on” from the United States, ElBaradei said Tuesday in an interview with ABC News.

“We are in contact with the administration and I hope in the next few weeks we’ll be getting much more information for us to be able to zero in on any suspicious activities,” ElBaradei said (DeYoung/Pincus, Washington Post, Jan. 9).

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Tuesday that the United States might withhold some of its most sensitive intelligence information from the Security Council for fear of jeopardizing any potential military action.  The final decision, however, is in the hands of U.S. President George W. Bush, Rumsfeld said.

“To the extent that prior to using force he were to reveal intelligence information in a way that damaged the ability to conduct the conflict, it would be, needless to say, unfortunately risky for the coalition forces’ lives engaged,” Rumsfeld said.  “And I don’t know what calibration would be made there. On the one hand, you have the advantage of persuading the publics in the world and countries of the facts of the matter, and on the other hand, by so doing, you weaken your ability to do that which you have decided to do,” he added (Roland Watson, London Times, Jan. 9).

Inspections

Meanwhile, inspectors have visited at least seven suspect Iraqi sites today, Iraqi officials said.  UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the al-Rifah facility in Baghdad, al-Hareth in Taji, about 10 miles north of Baghdad and al-Milad in Yousefiyah, about 10 miles south of the capital, according to Reuters.  UNMOVIC chemical teams visited the al-Rayah facility in Taji and Ayniyah in Beji, about 110 miles north of Baghdad.

UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited a Baghdad medical laboratory, Reuters reported.  A team of IAEA inspectors visited the al-Qadisiyah facility northeast of the city (Nadim Ladki, Reuters/Yahoo.com, Jan. 9).

Iraq Denies Exile Rumors

A senior Iraqi diplomat has denied recent reports that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is considering going into exile before any potential war with the United States.  Responding specifically to a report that Hussein was considering exile in Libya and that his son Uday had sent $3 billion to Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi to arrange asylum, Abbas Khalaf, Iraq’s ambassador to Russia, said rumors of exile are “nonsense” and a “canard” that is part of a psychological campaign against Iraq.

“I’d like to assure you that Hussein will continue to defend his homeland.  He is one of the leaders who will never leave his country and will fight till the last drop of blood,” Khalaf was quoted by Interfax yesterday.  “Hussein enjoys excellent health.  He is in a determined mood, is in perfect control of the situation and believes in our victory,” Khalaf added.

One of the biggest hurdles to any consideration by Hussein of going into exile is a fear of being charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity for his rule of Iraq, the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war and the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, according to the Los Angeles Times.  For Hussein to step down, he would want a guarantee that he will not be extradited from his place of exile to stand trial, Arab officials said.

While the U.S. State Department has been working to prepare war crimes charges against Hussein and other senior Iraqi officials, the issue is now being re-examined, according to U.S. officials (see GSN, Oct. 30, 2002).

There has also been debate within the Bush administration as to what Hussein might attempt to do once in exile, according to the Times.

“Some say he’s the ultimate survivor and will take whatever steps necessary to get out of this alive, believing he’ll be able to go back someday because the American experiment in Iraq will fail.  He’s so convinced of his own abilities that he believes he’s the once and future strongman that Iraq needs,” a U.S. official said (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, Jan. 9).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

IAEA Iraq Action Team

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Iraq II:  Summary of Inspections

Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27.  More than 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul.  The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ reported activities.

Date	Site	Activity
Jan. 9	Al-Rifah facility in Baghdad	See GSN, Jan. 9.
	Al-Hareth in Taji, about 10 miles north of Baghdad
	Al-Milad in Yousefiyah, about 10 miles south of Baghdad
	Al-Rayah facility in Taji, about 10 miles north of Baghdad
	Ayniyah in Beji, about 110 miles north of Baghdad
	Baghdad medical laboratory
	Al-Qadisiyah facility, located northeast of Baghdad
Jan. 8	Medical college in Baghdad	See GSN, Jan. 8.
	Al-Tareq public company, about 60 miles northwest of Baghdad	UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited the site, which is believed to produce chemical weapons precursors (see GSN, Jan. 8).
	Al-Mamoun Plant, about 40 miles southeast of Baghdad	UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the site, which produces components for several types of solid propellant rockets (see GSN, Jan. 8).
	Mosul medicine factory	See GSN, Jan. 8.
	Samawa cement plant in the southern part of the country
	Kofa cement plant in the southern part of the country
	Kerbala cement plant in the southern part of the country
	Irrigation Ministry repair company in Baghdad
Jan. 7	Al-Mamoun Plant of the al-Rasheed Company	UNMOVIC missile inspectors tagged critical equipment at the site (see GSN, Jan. 8).
	Al-Samoud Factory	UNMOVIC missile experts inspected two missile engines scheduled to soon be static-tested by Iraq (see GSN, Jan. 8).
	Ukhaider Ammunition and Missile Storage Area	See GSN, Jan. 8.
	Akashat uranium mine in al-Qaim, located about 260 miles west of Baghdad	See GSN, Jan. 7.
	Al-Mutasim missile plant in Jurf al-Sakhr, about 30 miles south of Baghdad
	Baghdad cancer research center
	University of Mosul
	Cement factor in Kbeisi, about 120 miles west of Baghdad
	Air force base near Kbeisi, about 120 miles west of Baghdad
Jan. 6	Bin Seena Center	An UNMOVIC biological team visited the site, which produces veterinary drugs (see GSN, Jan. 7).
	Army base located far south of Baghdad	An UNMOVIC missile team began tagging surface-to-surface solid propellant al-Fatah rockets (see GSN, Jan. 7)
	Maintenance section of the al-Fao Company, in northern Baghdad	See GSN, Jan. 7
	Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center	See the Dec. 20 entry.
	Bin Bitar research center, about five miles north of Baghdad	See GSN, Jan. 6
	Fallujah 3 pesticide factory	See the Dec. 9 entry.
	Faydah free-trade zone, located about 240 miles north of Baghdad	See GSN, Jan. 6
Jan. 5	Graphite facility	See GSN, Jan. 6
	Hospital in the northern city of Mosul
	University in the southern city of Basra
	Hospital in the southern city of Basra
	Food laboratory at the National Monitoring Directorate in Baghdad
	Glass research center at the National Monitoring Directorate in Baghdad
	Al-Basel company at the National Monitoring Directorate in Baghdad
	Al-Khawarizmi company at the National Monitoring Directorate in Baghdad
	Al-Tabani company at the National Monitoring Directorate in Baghdad
	Al-Majd company at the National Monitoring Directorate in Baghdad
Jan. 4	Al-Ma’mun Factory, part of the al-Rashid State Company	IAEA inspectors visited the site’s facilities and asked about projects and recently purchased machines (Baghdad Republic of Iraq Radio Main Service, Jan. 4, in FBIS-NES, Jan. 4).
	Al-Ubur State Company	IAEA inspectors inquired about the company’s affiliation, visited an aluminum pipe storage site and conducted a radiation survey (Baghdad Republic of Iraq Radio Main Service, Jan. 4, in FBIS-NES, Jan. 4).
	Bin Sina Company	UNMOVIC chemical inspectors met with company officials, searched computers and visited the site’s small production units and various laboratories (Baghdad Republic of Iraq Radio Main Service, Jan. 4, in FBIS-NES, Jan. 4).
	Army Helicopter Gunships Base at al-Suwayrah	UNMOVIC inspectors met with the base commander and searched the site’s facilities and warehouses (Baghdad Republic of Iraq Radio Main Service, Jan. 4, in FBIS-NES, Jan. 4).
	Al-Khalis Alcohol distillery	UNMOVIC biological inspectors reviewed the plant’s activities and changes that occurred since 1998 (Baghdad Republic of Iraq Radio Main Service, Jan. 4, in FBIS-NES, Jan. 4).
	Basra University Faculty of Agriculture	UNMOVIC biological inspectors met with the faculty dean and discussed research conducted since 1998 (Baghdad Republic of Iraq Radio Main Service, Jan. 4, in FBIS-NES, Jan. 4).
	Basra University Faculty of Nutrition	UNMOVIC biological inspectors verified tags and declarations (Baghdad Republic of Iraq Radio Main Service, Jan. 4, in FBIS-NES, Jan. 4).
Jan. 3	Al Mamoun Plant	UNMOVIC missile inspectors tagged several pieces of declared equipment (IAEA release, Jan. 3).
	Former ammunitions depot	UNMOVIC inspectors visited the site, which has been a previously used as a chemical weapons storage site (IAEA release, Jan. 3).
	Adjacent area to the former ammunitions depot	UNMOVIC inspectors visited the site, which had been used for chemical weapons tests (IAEA release, Jan. 3).
	Al Basil Narawan site, part of the al-Basil Center	UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited the site, which produces several types of chemicals (IAEA release, Jan. 3).
Dec. 21- Jan. 2	See GSN, Jan. 2

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North Korea:  Powell Hints at Formal U.S. Nonaggression Commitment

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell indicated yesterday that the United States might be willing to work out a settlement with North Korea — one that would include a formal assurance of nonaggression — to resolve the conflict over Pyongyang’s renewed nuclear program (see GSN, Jan. 8).

“We have made it clear we have no aggressive intent,” Powell said.  “Apparently, they want something more than a passing statement,” he added.

The Bush administration said yesterday that it is willing to send U.S. envoys to Pyongyang to meet directly with North Korean officials, according to the Washington Post.   North Korea has suggested through indirect communications that it wants the United States to send a high-level official, higher than an assistant secretary of state, to begin any formal talks, a Bush administration official said.

There are still a number of differences, however, between the United States and the other countries in the region as to what is the best approach for any future diplomatic efforts, Powell said.

“There are different approaches about this:  Should you talk?  When should you talk?  Would you negotiate?  What do you put on the table?” he said.  “Those are all issues that are worth debating.  But we have made it clear from the very beginning that we were keeping an open mind,” Powell added.

South Korea and Russia in particular have called on the United States to offer North Korea some sort of security assurance to persuade Pyongyang to shut down its nuclear program, the Post reported.  Instead of attempting to further isolate North Korea, which is “an erroneous approach,” the United States should provide it with the security guarantees it has called for, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said.

The Bush administration will continue to call on North Korea to abide by its international nonproliferation agreements in any series of talks, Powell said.  “We’re not going to pay for this football again” and create a new agreement with North Korea, he said.

National security adviser Condoleezza Rice met with South Korean national security adviser Yim Sung-joon yesterday in an attempt to resolve some of the differences between the two countries as to the best approach to the North Korean nuclear issue, according to the Post.  The White House offer of direct talks — but no negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program — is troubling, according to a senior South Korean diplomat.

“We hope North Korea takes the message right,” the diplomat said (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Jan. 9).

Signs of a North Korean Offer

Meanwhile, North Korea might be willing to abandon its nuclear program if the United States reaffirms a 2000 joint statement that declared the two countries had “no hostile intention” toward each other, diplomatic sources close to Pyongyang have said.

In that statement, the United States and North Korea agreed to end decades of hostility and to improve relations, according to Reuters.  Its signing led to then-U.S. Secretary of State Madeline Albright traveling to Pyongyang to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

“Reaffirming the joint communique issued in October 2000 would suffice,” a diplomatic source close to North Korea said.  “The North would agree to abandon its nuclear program if the United States agrees to go back to the joint communique and reaffirm it,” the source added (Eckert/Ueno, Reuters, Jan. 9).

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Pakistan:  Army Receives Nuclear-Capable Ghauri Ballistic Missile

The Pakistan army’s Strategic Force Command formally received its first batch of 1,500 kilometer-range Ghauri nuclear-capable ballistic missiles yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 8).

“It is the first time a nuclear-capable ballistic missile has been inducted into the army,” said political observer Mohamed Afzal Niazi (Agence France-Presse, Jan. 9).

The number of Ghauri missiles, also known as Hatf 5s, delivered to the army was not reported, according to BBC News.  It is believed, however, that serial production of the missile has begun (BBC News, Jan. 8). 

In his capacity as army chief, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf attended the missile delivery ceremony yesterday at nuclear research plant outside the capital of Islamabad, according to Agence France-Presse.  The missile, painted in gray and khaki camouflage markings, was mounted on a truck and driven past Musharraf and other top Pakistani military officials, according to military-issued photographs.

Musharraf said it was “a proud day for him to be accepting the Ghauri system,” Pakistani military spokesman Maj. Gen. Rashid Qureshi quoted him as saying.  The missile’s induction into the army “would radiate the necessary effects of deterrence,” Musharraf said (Agence France-Presse). 

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U.S. Response I:  Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan to Get U.S. Biological Research Funds

By Bryan Bender
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The United States plans to pay scientists in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to collaborate on new vaccines and other defenses against biological threats.  The program marks the first time former Soviet scientists in both countries would receive U.S. threat reduction funds to conduct peaceful research, according to officials involved in the effort.

Under the Cooperative Threat Reduction program, the United States has helped fund a variety of peaceful research projects in Russia through the International Science and Technology Center, established in 1992 by several nations.  The center is designed to steer peaceful research projects to former weapons scientists to ensure the experts’ knowledge is not diverted to help rogue states or terrorist groups to advance their WMD programs.

In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, however, U.S threat reduction projects have so far focused only on helping the two states dismantle nuclear weapons-related equipment and materials left over from the Cold War, and to finance security upgrades at weapons facilities.

Now, the CTR program plans to expand the U.S. contribution to efforts to utilize the scientific expertise resident in both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — both had a long experience in the Soviet biological weapons complex — in the quest for new defenses against biological terrorism.

First Funds for Biological Research

Under the Cooperative Biodefense Research Project, U.S. research personnel will be placed in former Soviet biological weapons research institutes in both countries, where they will work side-by-side with their counterparts on projects approved by the U.S. Defense Department. 

Some of the projects, according to U.S. defense officials, would include using former Soviet biological weapons expertise to enhance U.S. biological defense programs.  In addition, some projects would promote commercial activities at the facilities by Western companies, governments and other entities.

“What is noteworthy is this is the first effort in the biological research area” in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, said Cindi Mentz, director of nonproliferation programs at the U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation, which is slated to administer the effort for the Pentagon.  “They are going to start engaging the scientists in research that is not weapons-related,” she said.

Vast Expertise

Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have highly sophisticated biological research experience left over from the Soviet biological weapons program, which existed despite Soviet membership in the Biological Weapons Convention banning offensive biological research programs.

The Soviet Union employed 70,000 biologists and chemists at the height of its weapons programs, many of whom could help accelerate other states’ or terrorist groups’ efforts to develop doomsday weapons, according to experts.  The Soviet Union is believed to have weaponized as many as 50 biological agents, genetically engineering some of them to be resistant to antibiotics.

Kazakhstan, which is not party to the Biological Weapons Convention but has declared its commitment to nonproliferation, had and still operates a variety of former Soviet biological weapons facilities. 

These include Biomedpreparat, a large-scale former anthrax production facility located at Stepnogorsk, which has been dismantled with CTR funds; the still-operational Scientific Research Agricultural Institute at Otar, which specializes in anti-crop and anti-livestock diseases; and Biokombinat, a small facility located in the former capital of Almaty that is now producing vaccines.

Both the Otar and Almaty facilities are believed to house extensive collections of virulent strains, according to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

Uzbekistan, which is a signatory to the BWC, has also inherited several former Soviet biological weapons facilities. 

The Institute of Virology in Tashkent now focuses its research on human viral diseases.  Meanwhile, the Tashkent Center for Prophylaxis and Quarantine of Most Hazardous Diseases specializes in bacterial diseases and was once part of what was known as the Soviet anti-plague system. In the 1960s, the anti-plague system created vaccines to combat a potential biological attack against the Soviet Union.

Both facilities have extensive collections of microorganisms, including bacteria that cause plague, brucellosis, anthrax and tularemia, according to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

The largest Soviet biological test facility was located on Vozrozhdeniya Island in the Aral Sea, two-thirds of which lies in Uzbek territory.  The CTR program is funding a two-stage project to clean up the island and dismantle its infrastructure (see GSN, Nov. 20, 2002).  The United States has allocated $6 million to decontaminate 11 pits containing anthrax bacteria.  The budget and timing for dismantling the facility have yet to be determined.

Pentagon to Select Project Administrator

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which oversees most of the decade-old CTR program, announced its plans last month when it tapped the Civilian Research and Development Foundation as the “designated agent” to administer biological research projects in both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

The CRDF is a private, nonprofit organization authorized by the U.S. Congress and established by the National Science Foundation in 1995.  The foundation supports joint basic and applied research between the United States and the countries of the former Soviet Union.

“The foundation supports exceptional merit-reviewed research projects that offer [former Soviet Union] scientists and engineers alternatives to emigration; help prevent the dissolution of the FSU’s scientific and technological infrastructure; and advance the transition of weapons scientists to civilian work,” said Chantel Guess, CRDF’s communications manager.

“The CRDF also helps to move applied research to the marketplace by teaming U.S. companies with FSU scientists,” she said.

The foundation will disburse funds to scientists, engineers and other staff at Kazakh and Uzbek research institutes selected for support by DTRA, procure and transfer equipment and supplies to the institutes, provide in-country support, and execute specific projects.

“CRDF is the only U.S. source that works directly with [biological weapons] scientists in the FSU with a mission to instruct FSU scientists on how to create collaborative biodefense research proposals and to locate U.S. scientists as partners in their efforts,” DTRA said last month in a project description.

“This is a new role for us in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,” said Mentz.  “It’s a lot of work to handle the funding and administrative tasks. We already have a mechanism because we have other work in these countries,” she said.

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U.S. Response II:  U.S. Forces Not Ready for Some Biological Threats

The U.S. Defense Department does not have the vaccines necessary to protect military personnel from certain biological weapons, a top U.S. Army medical officer said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2002).

“We’re trying to fill holes as best we can,” said Col. Erik Henchal, director of the Army’s Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md.  “I wish we had more in our tool box,” he added.

One of the Army’s weaknesses is its defense against the nerve agent botulinum toxin, which terrorists could spray across a wide area, Henchal said.

The Pentagon has some botulinum toxoids, which function as vaccines, but their potency is dwindling and their supplies are limited, the Wall Street Journal reported today.  Defense officials said they could have vaccines ready for two forms of botulinum toxin by the end of the year (Greg Jaffe, Wall Street Journal, Jan. 9).

The military also comes up short on vaccines for the plague and for viruses that affect the brain (Associated Press/Chicago Tribune, Jan. 9).

The Army might work to develop its own production capacity for vaccines and medicines because there is little commercial incentive for the pharmaceutical industry to investigate medicines for biological warfare agents, the Wall Street Journal reported (Jaffe, Wall Street Journal).

The Fort Detrick laboratory has developed 20 vaccines to be used against chemical or biological agents, but most have not moved into the production stage, Henchal said.

The approval process from the U.S. Food and Drug administration also hampers development of medicines, the New York Times reported.

“It’s been difficult to get vaccines into production,” Henchal said (Eric Schmitt, New York Times, Jan. 9).

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U.S. Response III:  Pentagon Plans to Shift $420 Million to Homeland Security Department

Pentagon officials plan to transfer $420 million from their fiscal 2003 budget to the Homeland Security Department this year so the new agency can build a national bioweapons defense analysis center, Inside the Pentagon reported today (see GSN, Nov. 25, 2002).

The Defense Department also expects the new agency to encourage biological weapons detection efforts for U.S. cities, a Pentagon spokesman said (see GSN, Jan. 8).

The Defense Department has also created a joint-service program executive office for chemical and biological defense programs — which the Army is slated to lead — and a Joint Chiefs of Staff requirements office for defense from weapons of mass destruction, Inside the Pentagon reported (Anne Plummer, Inside the Pentagon, Jan. 9).

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United Kingdom:  Police Arrest Seventh Ricin Suspect

British police arrested a seventh person Tuesday linked to the weekend discovery of a homemade laboratory apparently used to produce ricin, the London Independent reported today (see GSN, Jan. 8).

Police are still looking for additional suspects and a store of ricin and have been helped by information from the suspects already in detention, the Independent reported.  More arrests are anticipated, but police denied earlier reports that they were seeking three key men in the case.

Forensic experts are searching the home of the man arrested Tuesday afternoon, a 33-year-old Algerian.

Among those arrested Sunday were a 16-year-old and a 17-year-old seeking asylum in the United Kingdom and living in the apartment where the deadly toxin was discovered, according to the Independent (Jason Bennetto, London Independent, Jan. 9).

Investigators discovered traces of ricin, castor oil beans and tools for crushing the beans inside the one-bedroom apartment, police said.  The search is expected to take several days to complete, Agence France-Press reported today (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, Jan. 9).

Those detained have been in the United Kingdom for three months or less, intelligence officials said.  The suspected terrorists in London might be connected to two Algerians and a Moroccan arrested in Paris in December, CNN.com reported (see GSN, Dec. 30, 2002; CNN.com, Jan. 8).

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Czech Response:  Chemical Units in Kuwait May Reinforce at U.S. Request

The United States has asked the Czech Republic to strengthen its anti-chemical weapons unit now stationed in Kuwait, the Czech news agency CTK reported today (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2002). 

According to Czech Defense Minister Jaroslav Tvrdik, about 100 additional men could be added to the unit and they would be transported to the region free, Tvrdik said.  The 250-man unit has been deployed in Kuwait since March 2002 (CTK/Ceske Noviny, Jan. 9).

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OPCW:  Brazil Considers Assigning Bustani to London

Former Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons head Jose Bustani, who was deposed from his position last year after major disagreements with the United States, is a leading candidate to be the new Brazilian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Agencia Estado reported yesterday (see GSN, April 23, 2002).

Bustani’s confirmation would probably cause diplomatic tensions, according to the Brazilian news agency (Joao Caminoto, Agencia Estado, Jan. 8, GSN translation).

Bustani angered the former Brazilian administration after he criticized then-Foreign Minister Celso Lafer for not doing enough to support Bustani at the OPCW before he was deposed (Paula Pulitti, Agencia Estado, Jan. 6, GSN translation).  Tensions increased further following an interview with BBC in which Bustani openly criticized Brazil and questioned the country’s readiness to serve as a permanent U.N. Security Council member while he was temporarily serving as the Brazilian consul-general in London.

“A country which is not prepared to fight for one of its representatives is not prepared to confront the pressures that it will face if it becomes a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council,” Bustani told the BBC in July.

Following those comments, Bustani was removed from that post (Avancini/Chrispim Marin, Agencia Estado, July 5, 2002).

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India:  New Delhi Successfully Tests Agni 1 Missile

India conducted today a successful flight test of a shorter-range variant of its Agni ballistic missile, according to Reuters (see GSN, July 26, 2002).  The test, conducted in the eastern state of Orissa over the Bay of Bengal, “was a textbook launch, everything went perfectly,” a senior Indian defense official said (Sanjeev Miglani, Reuters, Jan. 9).

The tested missile has a range of 600-900 kilometers, according to a senior Indian Defense Ministry official (CNN.com, Jan. 9).

Analysts said the test of the nuclear-capable missile, which can be launched from mobile systems, will help improve India’s defenses against its South Asian rival Pakistan (see GSN, Jan. 8).

“The test is one more step in enhancing India’s overall weapons of mass destruction capability,” said Uday Bhaskar, deputy head of the government-funded Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.

India plans to conduct several additional missile tests over the next few days, including tests of the supersonic Brahmos cruise missile and a 250-kilometer range variant of its Prithvi surface-to-surface missile, according to Reuters (Miglani, Reuters).

Pakistani officials lashed out at India today for conducting the test.

“This missile test reflects India’s mindset,” said Pakistani Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmad.  “India’s desire to control the subcontinent will never become a reality,” Ahmad said (CNN.com).

Pakistan has not said, however, if it would conduct its own missile test in response to India’s actions.  “Pakistan conducts tests when our technical requirements so demand,” said Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan (Agence France-Presse, Jan. 9).

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ABM Treaty:  House Democrat May Appeal Lawsuit Dismissal

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — U.S. Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), the lead plaintiff in a lawsuit to block U.S. withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, is considering appealing the suit’s dismissal last month, Kucinich spokesman Doug Gordon told Global Security Newswire yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 31, 2002).

Kucinich is considering his options with his lawyers and the 31 other House of Representatives members who joined the suit, Gordon said, adding that the other representatives remain supportive of Kucinich’s attempts to block the treaty withdrawal.  Kucinich can appeal U.S. District Judge John Bates’s decision to dismiss the case, which was filed Dec. 30, within 60 days, said John Burroughs, executive director of the Lawyers’ Committee on Nuclear Policy and one of the attorneys for the plaintiffs.

The dismissal disappointed Kucinich, who believed the plaintiffs had a strong case that deserved to be heard, Gordon said.  In a statement following Bates’ decision, Kucinich hinted that he would appeal.

“I will continue my efforts to protect national security and to enforce international law,” Kucinich said.

The U.S. Justice Department, which had represented the Bush administration in the case, was pleased by Bates’s decision, department spokeswoman Monica Goodling said.

In their June 2002 lawsuit, House plaintiffs argued the Bush administration could not withdraw the United States from a treaty without first seeking congressional approval.  Justice officials claimed the U.S. Constitution gave the president full authority over most treaty issues (see GSN, Aug. 8).  

In his decision, Judge Bates said the dispute was a political issue and not a legal matter.

“Permitting individual congressmen to run to federal court any time they are on the losing end of some vote or issue would circumvent and undermine the legislative process, and risk substituting judicial considerations and assessments for legislative ones,” Bates said in his decision.

The U.S. legal system has previously addressed the question of whether members of Congress could sue to halt the U.S. withdrawal from an international treaty.  In 1979, former Senator Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.) filed a suit to block former President Jimmy Carter’s decision to end, without consulting Congress, a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan (see GSN, June 12, 2002).  While in the Goldwater lawsuit, a federal district court agreed to hear the case and sided with the plaintiffs, it ultimately made its way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which voted 6-3 to dismiss.

In his statement, Kucinich blamed the Bush administration’s decision to withdraw the United States from the ABM Treaty for the current conflict surrounding North Korea’s relaunched nuclear program (see GSN, Jan. 8).

“The North Koreans obviously are taking advantage of the destruction of the ABM Treaty,” Kucinich said.  “There is no question that North Korea’s recent actions are a direct consequence of the administration’s decision to pull out from an agreement to control nuclear weapons,” he added.

For further information, see:

ABM Treaty Text and Associated Documents (U.S. Defense Department)

U.S. Fact Sheet on Withdrawal from ABM Treaty

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U.S. Plans:  Defense Department Spending Could Skyrocket

The United States might have to increase annual defense spending to as much as $490 billion by 2017 to fund scheduled weapons programs — including a national missile defense system — according to a recent Congressional Budget Office study (see GSN, Oct. 24, 2002).

The Pentagon’s annual projected average spending is currently slated at $387 billion through 2007.  Missile defense spending is scheduled at $7 billion to $8 billion annually through 2004 and it is slated to peak at $10 billion in 2010, the CBO study says.

National missile defense costs, however, could jump by as much as $3 billion per year “if costs grow as they have historically,” according to the CBO study (see GSN, Jan. 6).

An additional $3 billion per year would represent a 40 percent jump in spending on missile defense programs, Bloomberg.com reported yesterday.

After many missile defense systems become operational by 2010, spending is expected to decline and the budget office estimated the ground- and sea-based systems could be completed for $42 billion by 2014.

The CBO projections “play an important role in planning but are also speculative from the standpoint that systems included in the projections, as well as the number deployed, have not been determined,” U.S. Missile Defense Agency spokesman Lt. Col. Rick Lehner said (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg.com, Jan. 8).

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