In a letter to U.N. officials delivered this morning, Iraq agreed to allow U.N. weapons inspectors to conduct surveillance flights using U.S. U-2 aircraft. The issue had been a major point of contention when the top U.N. inspectors visited Baghdad Saturday and Sunday.
“The inspectors are now free to use the American U-2s as well as French and Russian planes,” said Iraqi U.N. Ambassador Mohamed al-Douri.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said today that Iraq had agreed to greater cooperation in several other areas as well. “We made progress on all the areas we asked for,” he said (see GSN, Feb. 7; Dafna Linzer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 10).
Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix cautiously concurred with that assessment yesterday. “I hope I have seen in those days the beginning of taking these remaining disarmament issues more seriously,” Blix said (Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb. 10).
In addition, al-Douri said Iraq would pass legislation next week to criminalize WMD production and other activities (Linzer, Associated Press).
During the weekend meetings, Iraqi officials provided documents that included information on Iraq’s efforts to develop anthrax, nerve gas and ballistic missiles, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. The documents still needed to be examined further to determine their value, Blix said, adding that they did not appear to contain new information (Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb. 10).
“This time they presented some papers to us in which they focused upon new issues,” Blix said. “Not new evidence really as far as I can see, but they have nevertheless focused on real open issues and that is welcome,” he added (Reuters/MSNBC.com, Feb. 10).
Iraq also supplemented a list of its nuclear scientists, said Iraqi presidential adviser Amir al-Saadi, who led the Iraqi delegation (Philadelphia Inquirer).
One important development over the weekend was Iraq’s acknowledgement that there were outstanding disarmament issues, a senior U.N. official said. “They finally acknowledged there were issues that needed to be resolved,” the official said.
If Iraq continued to increase its cooperation with inspectors, then disarmament could still be accomplished peacefully, ElBaradei said.
“The ball is very much in Iraq’s court,” ElBaradei said. “If we see full cooperation ... on all the issues, then I believe we will be given time we need. As long as we’re registering good progress, I think the Security Council will continue to support the inspection process,” he added (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, Feb. 10).
U.S. Response
U.S. officials have openly criticized Iraq’s new efforts to cooperate with inspectors, and have said that time is running out for Iraq to disarm, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.
“The Iraqis are playing a game here,” U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said. “They do this every time they feel a little bit of pressure. What they’re trying to do is create a little bit of sense that they’re moving forward so they can release the pressure on themselves. But they have one thing to do and one thing only, and that is to disarm,” she added (Philadelphia Inquirer).
If Iraq is still not fully cooperating with inspectors by a Security Council briefing scheduled for Friday, then U.S. President George W. Bush will immediately call for a U.N. resolution authorizing military action, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday.
If Blix and ElBaradei report Feb. 14 that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is still not cooperating, “then the Security Council will have to sit in session immediately and determine what should happen next,” Powell said on NBC’s Meet the Press. The council would then have to “start considering a resolution that says Iraq is in material breach and it is time for serious consequences to follow,” he added (Steven Weisman, New York Times, Feb. 10).
Bush said yesterday that the United Nations has reached a “moment of truth” in the crisis with Iraq and that the international body’s actions now could determine its future relevance.
“You’ll see us over the next short period of time working with friends and allies and the United Nations to bring that body along,” Bush told a gathering of Republican lawmakers at a retreat in West Virginia. “And it’s a moment of truth for the United Nations. The United Nations gets to decide shortly whether or not it is going to be relevant in terms of keeping the peace, whether or not its words mean anything,” he added (Dana Milbank, Washington Post, Feb. 10).
France, Germany Propose Alternative
Meanwhile, France and Germany have proposed an alternative to the U.S. calls for action against Iraq. Their plan would triple the number of inspectors operating within the country, send U.N. peacekeepers to Iraq and convert the entire country into a no-fly zone, according to the Washington Times (see GSN, Feb. 4).
Both countries plan to present their proposal to the Security Council Friday after Blix and ElBaradei give their briefing, the Times reported (Ellen Sorokin, Washington Times, Feb. 10). Germany, which has long resisted military action against Iraq, “could well take” part in the peacekeeping force envisioned in the plan, said German Defense Minister Peter Struck.
Already, Russia and Belgium have offered support for the plan, according to BBC News.
“I have no doubt that Russia will adhere to it,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said yesterday, referring to the Franco-German plan (BBC News, Feb. 9).
Senior U.S. officials, however, have criticized the Franco-German plan, according to the Washington Times. Powell said the plan “misses the point.”
“It’s the wrong issue," Powell said on Meet the Press. “The issue is not more inspectors. The issue is compliance on the part of Saddam Hussein. This idea of more inspectors or a no-fly zone or whatever else may be in this proposal that is being developed, is a diversion, not a solution,” he added.
If the United Nations chose to adopt the Franco-German plan, such a decision could lead to the United States launching an attack on Iraq without U.N. support, Powell said.
“If the U.N. does not face up to its responsibilities as clearly laid out in Resolution 1441, then it would be necessary for the United States to act with a willing coalition,” Powell said, referring to the resolution that established the current inspections regime (Sorokin, Washington Times).
NATO
France, Germany and Belgium earlier today blocked efforts by other NATO nations to enhance Turkey’s defenses in the event of a war with Iraq, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Jan. 30). France exercised its veto with only an hour to go before the deadline.
Representatives from the three countries said the planning was unnecessary because there was still a chance that a peaceful solution could be found to the Iraq crisis.
“It [the planning] would signify that we have already entered into the logic of war, that ... any chance, any initiative to still resolve the conflict in a peaceful way was gone,” Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel said.
Turkey has now requested emergency consultations under NATO’s mutual defense treaty — the first time in the alliance’s history that a nation has done so. Turkey is expected to ask for the defense planning to begin, and diplomats have said they expected the three countries to end their opposition.
“What is important, is that we arrive at a consensus and I’m confident we will,” said NATO Secretary General George Robertson.
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld criticized the veto.
“Shameful, for me it’s truly shameful,” Rumsfeld said in an interview published yesterday in the Italian newspaper La Republica. “Turkey is an ally. An ally that is risking everything ... How can you refuse it help?” he added (Paul Ames, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 10).
Exile
The United States and the United Kingdom are developing a proposal to offer Hussein 48 hours to voluntarily go into exile or risk an attack, which would be included as a section of any second U.N. resolution, according to the London Sunday Telegraph (see GSN, Jan. 31).
The two-day deadline is seen as enough time for Arab diplomats to make a last attempt to convince Hussein to step down or for him to be overthrown in a coup, U.S. officials said. British Foreign Office officials have confirmed that Saudi Arabia has offered to provide a haven for Hussein if he chose to go into exile, according to the Sunday Telegraph (Coman/Brown, London Sunday Telegraph, Feb. 9).
Biological Weapons Program Justified, Dr. Germ Says
Iraq was justified in producing biological agents in the 1980s and the 1990s to serve as a deterrent, Rihab Taha, a former top Iraqi biological weapons scientist who has been dubbed “Dr. Germ” by the media, said yesterday.
“We never wanted to cause harm or damage to anybody,” Taha said in an interview with the BBC’s Panorama program. “Iraq has been threatened by different enemies and we are in an area that suffers from regional conflict. I think it is our right to have something to defend ourselves and to have something as a deterrent,” she added.
Taha said she had no plans to submit to a private interview with U.N. inspectors, saying it was her “right” to conduct such an interview with Iraqi officials present.
“I do not trust them from the last inspections,” Taha said. “I think it is better for me and for them and for everybody to have witnesses because I think it is our right,” she added (Associated Press/MSNBC.com, Feb. 9).
Iraq Counters Powell’s Missile Test Stand Claims
Iraqi officials Friday took reporters to the al-Rafah plant, about 50 miles west of Baghdad, in an attempt to counter Powell’s claims that a missile test stand there was designed to test missiles with ranges beyond U.N. limits (see GSN, Feb. 6).
In his recent presentation to the Security Council, Powell said the al-Rafah test stand, which is larger than previous test stands, is meant “for long-range missiles that can fly 1,200 kilometers.”
The stand is larger, however, because it is meant to test-fire missiles in a horizontal position, rather than vertically as with the old stand, said Ali Jassim, director of the al-Rafah plant. The new configuration is safer, he added.
“By constructing this facility, we are taking precautions to keep people from getting burnt,” Jassim said.
Jassim also defended the presence of an aluminum roof over the test stand. Powell had alleged that the roof was meant to block satellites from taking images of the stand. The roof is actually meant to protect the stand from “rain and dust,” Jassim said (Ian Fisher, New York Times, Feb. 8).
Inspections
U.N inspectors Friday conducted private interviews with three Iraqi WMD scientists — two on nuclear and biological weapons and one scientist involved with Iraq’s nuclear program, according to the New York Times. So far, inspectors have been able to talk to four Iraqi scientists without the presence of government minders (Ian Fisher, New York Times, Feb. 9).
On Saturday, inspectors visited at least six suspect Iraqi sites, according to an IAEA press release. Chemical experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission inspected the al-Rasheed Water Project in Baghdad. UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the al-Mutassim Training Institute in northwestern Baghdad. UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited the Djerf al-Naddaf facility. Inspectors based in the northern city of Mosul visited the Mosul Technical Institute.
IAEA inspectors conducted a motorized radiation survey in the Baghdad area, according to the agency press release. A second IAEA team deployed two mobile air-sampling units at two locations in Baghdad (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Feb. 8).
For further information, see:
UNMOVIC
IAEA Iraq Action Team
U.N. Resolution 1441
Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ reported activities.
| Date | Site | Activity | | Feb. 8 | Al-Rasheed Water Project in Baghdad | See GSN, Feb. 10. | | | Al-Mutassim Training Institute in northwestern Baghdad | | | Djerf al-Naddaf facility | | | Mosul Technical Institute | | | Baghdad area | IAEA inspectors conducted a motorized radiation survey (see GSN, Feb. 10). | | | Baghdad | IAEA inspectors deployed two mobile air-sampling units at two locations (see GSN, Feb. 10). | | Feb. 7 | Al-Wathba Water Project in Baghdad | IAEA release, Feb. 7. | | Suwaira Stores Plant Protection Division | | Technical Institute | | Combined agricultural and ammunition storage site near al-Kut | | Al-Waziriyah | | Munitions store | IAEA release, Feb. 8. | | Samarra Drug Industry | UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (IAEA release, Feb. 7). | | Salah Ad Din State Company | UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (IAEA release, Feb. 7). | | Jan. 31-Feb. 6 | See GSN, Feb. 7. | |
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Iran publicly announced yesterday that it plans to construct a nuclear power capacity entirely from domestic sources. Iran will mine uranium, process it into nuclear fuel, and process the subsequent spent fuel, according to reports (see GSN, Feb. 4).
Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said yesterday Iran is prepared to begin extracting uranium from mines located about 200 kilometers from the city of Yazd in the central part of the country, Khatami said. There are also plans to construct facilities in the cities of Isfahan and Kashan to process uranium for use as nuclear fuel, he said, adding that Iranian experts have been trained in the civilian applications of nuclear technologies (Islamic Republic News Agency, Feb. 9).
Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said the Islamic nation would process spent nuclear fuel, the Associated Press reported.
“With the completion of the Isfahan plant, we hope to process the spent fuel and provide fuel for plants inside the country soon,” Aghazadeh said (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press, Feb. 10).
Aghazadeh said work on the fuel preparation plants has started (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2002).
“The preliminary steps have taken place and very extensive research has already started,” he said. “We have taken some steps but we still have a long way to go to have this plant come onstream,” he added.
Khatami denied that Iran was seeking to expand its nuclear capabilities in order to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has decided to produce about 6,000 megawatts of electricity through nuclear power, he said, noting that the Bushehr nuclear plant, currently under construction by Russia, is set to generate 1,000 megawatts of electricity.
“I assure all peace-loving individuals in the world that Iran’s efforts in the field of nuclear technology are focused on civilian application and nothing else,” Khatami said. “This is the Iranian nation’s legitimate right,” he added (Islamic Republic News Agency).
U.S. officials have criticized China and Russia in recent days for insufficiently pressuring North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Feb. 7).
“They’re carrying Pyongyang’s water instead of ours,” said a senior U.S. official. “They could cut them off, and in six months North Korea would be in dire circumstances,” the official said.
U.S. President George W. Bush said he spoke to Chinese President Jiang Zemin Friday and “reminded him that we have a joint responsibility to uphold the goal that we talked about in Crawford (in October), that goal being a nuclear-weapons-free peninsula; that we have responsibilities, joint responsibilities; that Russia has a responsibility.”
Bush also said that “all options are on the table.”
U.S. officials recently told Beijing that its response to the situation could damage the U.S.-Chinese relations, the Post reported (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Feb. 8).
South Korea’s second highest-ranking official, meanwhile, said that he does not believe North Korea has nuclear weapons, the Associated Press reported.
“North Korea is believed to have extracted enough plutonium to make one or two bombs before 1994,” Prime Minister Kim Suk-soo said today. “Since there has been no confirmation that it actually has produced nuclear weapons, we believe that they do not have any,” he added.
Missile Test Warning
U.S. Ambassador Howard Baker, Washington’s envoy to Tokyo, warned of a possible North Korean missile flight test over Japan, the Associated Press reported today
“We hear reports that they may engage in a missile test, perhaps overflying the island of Japan,” Baker said (Christopher Torchia, Associated Press/Newsday, Feb. 10).
Food Aid Reduced
The U.N. World Food Program, meanwhile, announced it is cutting humanitarian food supplies to hundreds of thousands of North Koreans because of slumping donations (see GSN, Jan. 6).
“What we’re having to do now, because the resourcing situation has not improved, is to start cutting off beneficiaries in the eastern half of the country,” said WFP spokesman Gerald Bourke. “To have to make cutbacks in that area is extremely serious because these are among the people in North Korea who are suffering most,” he added.
The United States cut its donations to the program over concerns about food distribution, according to Reuters. The program had planned to feed 6.5 million North Koreans in 2003 (Tamora Vidaillet, Reuters, Feb. 10).
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The U.S. National Cancer Institute, part of the National Institutes of Health, plans to tear down a former U.S. offensive biological weapons laboratory located at Fort Detrick, Md., the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 16, 2002).
The laboratory, Building 470, has been unoccupied since 1969 and was officially decommissioned in 1971. Before then, however, the facility was used to produce biological agents, such as anthrax, for the U.S. offensive biological warfare program, according to the Post.
The National Cancer Institute, which took over Building 470 in 1988, plans to tear down the building because it has been found to be structurally unsound. Officials said there is little risk that the building’s demolition will release any biological agents.
“Since 1971, people have been going into that building,” said George Anderson, a decontamination expert with Southern Research Institute. “There is no evidence of any viable, living (anthrax) spores in the building,” he said (David Snyder, Washington Post, Feb. 9).
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Supergum, an Israeli defense contractor, has developed a tent to protect family pets from chemical or biological attacks, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported yesterday.
“Many Israelis feel like their pets are part of the family. We’ve received dozens and dozens of calls from people wanting something for their pets. We now have an answer for them,” said Roni Srour, Supergum’s vice president.
The new device, called How Meow, uses the same protective filters and air blowers that the company supplies to the Israeli army. Pet owners place their animal companions in a travel cage or similar enclosure and then seal the pet in. The battery operated filter and blower are designed to keep the pet safe for six hours, the Journal-Constitution reported.
“Veterinarians have tested the system on dogs, cats and parrots. They stayed inside for six hours, and none showed any signs of distress or any medical problems,” said Sheila Baron, the product’s development director (Margaret Coker, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Feb. 9).
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A panel of missile experts commissioned by chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix is scheduled to meet today and tomorrow to investigate two Iraqi missile programs and determine if they violate U.N. resolutions, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 4).
The missile experts will examine the al-Samoud 2 and al-Fatah programs, according to AP.
Blix said that he wanted the experts to “give us advice because if we have to take a decision — and we may have to do so — then I would like to have the technical side secure.”
U.N. lawyers will also look into the situation because “I also want to have the legal side secure,” Blix added.
Under U.N. resolutions, Iraq is not permitted to have missiles with ranges greater than 93 miles. Blix has said that the al-Samoud 2 has passed that mark 13 times in 40 tests, according to Security Council diplomats. The missile traveled 114 miles during one test, they said. The al-Fatah exceeded the 93-mile limitation eight times during its 33 tests, the officials said. At one point that missile traveled 100 miles, they added.
Iraq released documents on the missile programs to U.N. officials Sunday, Blix said.
“These missiles might very well represent prima facie cases of proscribed systems,” Blix said. “In the meantime, we have asked Iraq to cease flight tests of both missiles,” he added.
Iraqi officials said that the missiles would be weighed down with control systems in their final forms and would not be able to travel more than 93 miles, AP reported (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Austin American-Statesman, Feb. 10).
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By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — U.S. defense contractor Orbital Sciences test launched the first prototype of its missile defense boost vehicle last Thursday and officials hope to conduct a fully integrated intercept test later this year, according to a company official (see GSN, Dec. 9, 2002).
The launch was “excellent,” Orbital spokesman Barron Beneski said.
There were “no issues. The vehicle performed fully, as expected,” he added.
The launch is the first of several planned for this year, according to Beneski. Each one will be more complex than the last and the company expects to attempt an intercept flight in the second half of this year (see GSN, Jan. 7).
The boost vehicle, dubbed Taurus Lite, is being developed for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s Ground-based Midcourse Defense system. Orbital Sciences is producing the boost vehicle under a contract with lead systems integrator Boeing.
Lockheed Martin is also developing a GMD boost vehicle and Boeing officials are scheduled to decide between the two options later this year.
Officials launched the unarmed rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. This was the first launch from Vandenberg this year, according to a Missile Defense Agency release.
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The decision to elevate the U.S. terrorism alert level Friday to “orange,” indicating a high risk of attack, was based in part on concerns that al-Qaeda has intensified its efforts to acquire “dirty bombs,” U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft said Friday (see GSN, Feb. 7).
“We have seen, both from the practice of al-Qaeda and from the law enforcement work of individuals around the world and from the intelligence community, that al-Qaeda continues to demonstrate a very serious interest in chemical, biological as well as radiological devices, the impacts of which would obviously be adverse,” Ashcroft said. “It’s based on those considerations, as well as others, that we find this occasion one in which we feel that we should elevate this designation from ‘elevated state’ to a ‘high state’ of alert,” he added.
There is still no conclusive evidence that al-Qaeda has actually constructed a radiological weapon, U.S. officials said (see GSN, Jan. 31). However, they said they believe the terrorist group has done so and plans to use a dirty bomb in an upcoming attack. This is the first time the threat alert level has been raised due to such concerns, according to the Los Angeles Times.
“There has always been a concern about al-Qaeda obtaining biological, chemical and radiological weapons,” a U.S. counterterrorism official said. “I think that concern is growing, and that is why it was mentioned today. It was not mentioned before in connection with raising the threat level,” the official added (Josh Meyer, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 8).
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2002 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
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