U.S. and British diplomats have settled on their diplomatic strategy in the U.N. Security Council: win nine votes for a new resolution on Iraq, the bare minimum needed for passage, and then challenge China, France and Russia to veto the measure, Bush administration officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 20).
Previously, the two countries had hoped for a 15-0 council vote on a new resolution that would authorize military action against Iraq, according to the New York Times. Some officials involved in the discussions over the new approach had argued that a resolution approved by a divided council would be seen as weak. Over the last few weeks, however, White House officials have decided that even a resolution passed by a slim majority would still have authority, the Times reported.
U.S. and British officials worked yesterday on resolving their differences on the language of the draft resolution, according to the Times. It is likely to be introduced in the Security Council next week, possibly Monday, Bush administration officials said.
U.S. and British officials also discussed how to persuade five of the council’s six uncommitted, nonpermanent members — Angola, Guinea, Cameroon, Mexico, Chile and Pakistan — to support the new resolution, diplomats said. Currently, only Bulgaria and Spain have openly supported the U.S.-British position, the Times reported. The United States and the United Kingdom, which support an attack on Iraq, and France and Germany, which oppose such action, have said they are not using economic pressure to sway the remaining nonpermanent members. The foreign aid programs provided to these countries, however, are an important factor in the discussions, diplomats said.
The six countries “are really feeling the heat, and they’re going to be feeling even more heat in coming days,” said a Bush administration official. “On the other side, the French and Germans are turning up the pressure, too,” the official added (Weisman/Barringer, New York Times, Feb. 21).
Blix Prepares Questions
Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix plans Monday to give his advisory board a list of about 30 unresolved questions related to Iraq’s disarmament, according to Reuters. The list is part of preparations for a written report Blix is expected to submit to the Security Council on either Feb. 28 or March 3. A briefing, scheduled for March 7, will then follow that report, diplomats said.
The entire list of remaining questions, almost 300 pages, has been compiled by the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission over the past several years, Reuters reported. The UNMOVIC advisory group is expected to receive a condensed version “in clusters” during meetings Monday and Tuesday (Evelyn Leopold, Reuters/MSNBC.com, Feb. 21).
Iraq’s Illegal Missiles
Meanwhile, Blix is expected to send a letter to Iraq today demanding that it destroy all of its al-Samoud 2 ballistic missiles, which an expert panel has recently determined violate U.N. mandates because of their range, diplomats and U.N. officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 20; Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 21).
U.N. inspectors last night were preparing the order, which would cover 100 al-Samoud 2s, 50 of which have already been sent to the Iraqi army; and 380 illegally imported SA-2 engines that were meant for use in al-Samoud 2 production, the National Post reported. Iraq is also expected to be ordered to destroy casting chambers that could be used to produce engines for missiles capable of traveling farther than the U.N.-allowed range of 150 kilometers (Steven Edwards, National Post, Feb. 20).
Blix is still deciding whether to set a formal deadline for Iraq’s destruction of the missiles, knowing that if Iraq refuses to do so, it could set off war, according to U.N. and U.S. officials.
“The discussions today were on setting an artificial timeline of when destruction should begin and end,” a U.N. official said yesterday. During those discussions, Blix and other officials recognized that Iraq’s refusal to carry out the missile destruction order “would constitute the most direct and visible defiance of the United Nations since inspections resumed,” the U.N. official added.
During the previous inspections regimes from 1991 to 1998, inspectors operated under different practices for the destruction of prohibited weapons and the equipment used to produce them, according to the Washington Post.
“In the beginning, destruction was immediate or very rapid,” said former U.N. inspector Timothy McCarthy. “There were negotiations about disposition of equipment, but ultimately we destroyed whatever we wanted. At no time was there an item that we wished to destroy that we didn’t destroy,” he added (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Feb. 21).
Iraq has claimed that the missiles flight-tested beyond U.N.-allowed ranges because they were not equipped at the time with warheads and guidance systems, which would have made them heavier. Baghdad wants U.N. technical experts to travel to Iraq to “to see that these missiles cannot exceed in any way 150 kilometers, and not to limit themselves to a written paper, a theoretical report,” Iraq’s U.N. Ambassador Mohammed al-Douri said (Lederer, Associated Press).
U.S. Troops Ready to Invade
The United States and the United Kingdom have amassed a military presence large enough in the Persian Gulf region to invade Iraq at any time, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday.
“I would characterize it as ample,” Rumsfeld said of the U.S.-British military force, during an interview on PBS’s NewsHour With Jim Lehrer. “We are at a point where, if the president (George W. Bush) makes that decision (to attack), the Department of Defense is prepared and has the capabilities and the strategy to do that,” he said.
So far, the United States and the United Kingdom have assembled more than 150,000 troops, dozens of warships and hundreds of aircraft, defense officials said. Six aircraft carriers, five U.S. and one British, are also expected to join the force soon, which could number more than 200,000 troops by the end of the month, according to U.S. officials.
Rumsfeld, however, refused to provide more details on the exact makeup of the U.S.-British force. “I don’t do numbers,” he said (Reuters/Financial Times, Feb. 21).
Inspections
Inspectors yesterday conducted a second reconnaissance flight over Iraq using a U.S. U-2 aircraft — the second such flight this week, according to the Associated Press. During yesterday’s flight, the aircraft spent more than six hours over Iraq, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry said (see GSN, Feb. 18).
Iraq has also submitted to inspectors a list of people involved in the destruction of prohibited biological weapons and missile items, Buchanan said. Iraq had previously submitted a list of 83 people who were reported involved in the destruction of banned chemical weapons.
“Those lists are being studied, and clearly might be potential names for interviews,” Buchanan said (Niko Price, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Feb. 21).
Two French Mirage 4 surveillance aircraft left an airbase in southern France today and are expected to later arrive at an undisclosed location in the Persian Gulf region, according to Agence France-Presse. The aircraft, along with two refueling planes and a 70-member support team, were offered to inspectors as part of a French-German-Russian proposal to strengthen inspections (see GSN, Feb. 12; Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, Feb. 21).
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said yesterday inspectors were being subjected to unwelcome, heavy pressure.
“Inspectors are being subjected to very strong pressure in order to provoke their departure from Iraq, as occurred in 1998, or to present Security Council assessments which could be used as a pretext for the use of force against Iraq,” he said.
While declining to identify the source of such pressure, Ivanov has previously accused “certain circles” in the United States of doing so (Reuters/Gulf News, Feb. 21).
Inspectors visited at least 23 suspect Iraqi sites yesterday, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency press release. UNMOVIC missile teams placed additional tags on al-Samoud 2 missiles and warheads located in Baghdad. Missile experts also visited al-Qudis factory and al-Wazariya site. Inspectors also conducted an aerial survey via helicopter of several sites northwest of Baghdad, located up the Tigris River to the city of Tikrit.
UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited al-Aaela Factory for Sulfochemicals, where they conducted a rebaselining inspection, according to the IAEA release. UNMOVIC biological inspectors performed aerial inspections on a site west of Baghdad and a site southwest of the city. Biological inspectors also visited via helicopter an alcohol-producing factory south-southwest of the city of Amarah in southeastern Iraq.
IAEA inspectors inspected flow-forming equipment at al-Karama facility and the Ghraib facility, the agency release said. IAEA inspectors also visited the Shakyli Stores at the Tuwaitha site, to inspect materials from Iraq’s past centrifuge program, and al-Eyz Company. Agency inspectors conducted radiation surveys at ElBasel Company-ElNahrawan, the Sabaa (Seven) Nissan General Company, an oil workers residential complex, the Department of Oil Truck Maintenance and an air defense unit east of Baghdad (IAEA release, Feb. 20).
For further information, see:
UNMOVIC
IAEA Iraq Action Team
U.N. Resolution 1441
A former U.S. Air Force master sergeant was convicted yesterday of offering U.S. intelligence to Iraq and China but a jury could not decide whether he had tried to sell Baghdad documents on nuclear weapons, military satellites or U.S. war plans, the Associated Press reported.
If the jurors decide that Brian Regan tried to sell those secrets to Iraq, he would be eligible for the death penalty.
The jury acquitted Regan, a father of four from Maryland, of spying for Libya.
Regan worked at the National Reconnaissance Office, which operates U.S. satellites. He was arrested in 2001 at Dulles International Airport in Virginia while boarding a flight for Switzerland, allegedly while carrying top-secret information.
Prosecutors said that Regan offered to sell U.S. military secrets to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein for $13 million.
Defense attorneys said that Regan fantasized about spying, but never followed through with the effort (Jonathan Salant, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Feb. 21).
U.S. District Judge Gerald Lee sent the jury home for the weekend and said he hoped the trial would not end without resolving the Iraq charge.
“They have not reached the conclusion that they are hung, but it sounds like they are struggling to reach unanimity in answering that question,” he said (Jerry Markon, Washington Post, Feb. 21).
Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 200 U.N. personnel, including about 150 inspectors, are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ recently reported activities.
| Date | Site | Activity | | Feb. 20 | Areas in Baghdad | UNMOVIC missile inspectors placed additional tags on al-Samoud 2 missiles and warheads (see GSN, Feb. 21). | | Al-Qudis factory | See GSN, Feb. 21. | | Al-Wazariya site | | Sites northwest of Baghdad, located up the Tigris River to the city of Tikrit | Inspectors an aerial survey via helicopter (see GSN, Feb. 21). | | Al-Aaela Factory for Sulfochemicals | UNMOVIC chemical inspectors conducted a rebaselining inspection (see GSN, Feb. 21). | | Site west of Baghdad | UNMOVIC biological inspectors performed an aerial inspection (see GSN, Feb. 21). | | Site southwest of Baghdad | UNMOVIC biological inspectors performed an aerial inspection (see GSN, Feb. 21). | | Alcohol-producing factory south-southwest of the city of Amarah in southeastern Iraq | See GSN, Feb. 21. | | Al-Karama facility | IAEA inspectors inspected flow-forming equipment at the site (see GSN, Feb. 21). | | Ghraib facility | IAEA inspectors inspected flow-forming equipment at the site (see GSN, Feb. 21). | | Shakyli Stores at Tuwaitha | IAEA inspectors inspected materials from Iraq’s past centrifuge program (see GSN, Feb. 21). | | Al-Eyz Company | See GSN, Feb. 21. | | ElBasel Company-ElNahrawan | IAEA inspectors conducted radiation surveys (see GSN, Feb. 21). | | Sabaa (Seven) Nissan General Company | | Oil workers residential complex | | Department of Oil Truck Maintenance | | Air defense unit east of Baghdad | | Taji missile site | See GSN, Feb. 20. | | Ibn al-Haytham missile site | | Al-Quds missile site | | Karameh missile site | | Al-Samoud Factory | | Al-Basil Company | | Feb. 19 | Al-Samoud Factory | See GSN, Feb. 20. | | Tikrit University’s College of Agriculture | | Tikrit University’s College of Sciences | | Tikrit University’s College of Engineering | | Tikrit University’s College of Women Education | | Dairy factory in south Tikrit | | Ibn al-Waleed State Company in Baghdad | | Al-Feda’a hydraulics factory | | State Company of Mechanical and Electrical Contracts’s manufacturing, storage and repair facility | | Areas east of Baghdad | IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (see GSN, Feb. 20). | | Abu Ghraib | An al-Samoud missile site, northwest of Baghdad (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Mamoun | UNMOVIC team inspected this military compound near Baghdad (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Ibn al-Haithem | UNMOVIC team inspected this military compound near Baghdad (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Fidaa | UNMOVIC team inspected this military compound near Baghdad (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Muthanna | UNMOVIC chemical team visited site near Baghdad (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Vegetable oil factory | Inspectors visited factory in Baghdad (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Nidaa | IAEA inspectors visited military compound (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Zawra | IAEA inspectors visited military compound (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Nahrawan | IAEA inspectors visited military compound south of Baghdad (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Feb. 18 | Al-Khadima | Facility responsible for final assembly of al-Samoud missiles (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Harith | Missile engine and gyroscope research and development facility (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Qaid | Site where al-Samoud missile warheads are filled (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Radwan | Facility manufactures missile parts and containers (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Deployed al-Samoud missiles | UNMOVIC missile team visited deployed missiles (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Mutanna | Team visited facility to continue destroying artillery shells filled with mustard agent but were delayed by weather (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Sa’ad State Company | UNMOVIC team visited mechanical engineering and design center (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Naser al-Adheem General Company | IAEA team visited facility in Baghdad’s Daura district (see GSN, Feb. 19). | | Al-Qa Qaa | U.N. teams visit this chemical and explosives production plant (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Mansour State Company | IAEA radiation survey of electronics manufacturing facility (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Dar al-Salam chemical plant | (See GSN, Feb. 18). | | Al-Tahidi factory | Production plant for electrical cables and high-voltage generators (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Qadasiyah Dairy Factory in southern Diwaniya province | (See GSN, Feb. 18). | | Feb. 17 | Al-Khadimia and al-Samoud Factories | UNMOVIC missile inspectors examined these facilities that work on liquid-fueled engines (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Al-Assma Company | Manufacturing plant for al-Fateh missile components (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Al-Mutasim airfield | Site of Iraqi UAV testing (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Al-Ameen Factory | Site of static testing of al-Fateh and al-Abour missile motor cases (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Um al-Maarik General Establishment | Manufacturing facility for missile and rocket motor cases (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Al-Muthanna | UNMOVIC chemical experts visited “in connection with the mustard gas destruction process and took some chemical samples for analysis” (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Al-Zahif al-Kabeer Center | Chemical plant designed to extract minerals and chemical compounds from mining and seawater (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Al-Fuwayjah | UNMOVIC biological experts visited this seed processing facility (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Hadr Ammuntion Storage Facility | UNMOVIC teams “focused primarily on artillery and small-caliber munitions” (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Samarra | IAEA radiation survey (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Al-Nida | IAEA experts visited this heavy industrial manufacturing plant (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Um al-Maarik | IAEA “no-notice” inspection (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Tho al-Fekar | IAEA team investigates flow forming equipment and processes (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Feb. 16 | Food processing facility at Baquba | UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Biology Department of the College of Sciences at Baquba University | | Food processing facility at Diyala | | Diyala Tuberculosis and respiratory center | | Al-Kindi | UNMOVIC missile experts visited this missile development site (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Ibn al-Haytham | UNMOVIC missile experts tagged SA-2 missile engines (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Taji | Missile experts tagged al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Al-Mamoun | Missile inspectors examined casting chambers rebuilt by Iraq after U.N. inspectors destroyed them in the 1990s (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Fallujah 3 | UNMOVIC chemical experts conducted an “inspection involved [in] the verification of declared items” (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Hadr Ammunition Storage Facility | UNMOVIC teams “covered a vast amount of ground, which included roughly 300 storage warehouses, bunkers, brick stores, metal containers and external munitions dumps” (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Feb. 15 | Al-Nida | UNMOVIC missile inspection of solid propellant mixer plant (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Nissan Factory 17 | Production plant for al-Samound missile components (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Salah al-Din State Company | Manufacturing facility for fuses and printed circuit boards for missiles (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Saddam Center for Biotechnology Research | UNMOVIC biological team visited to “follow up the movement of items notified by the Iraqi National Monitoring Directorate” (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Chemistry Department of Saddam University College of Science | (See GSN, Feb. 18). | | Southern Refinery Company | UNMOVIC chemical experts sought evidence of chemical weapons production at this facility in Basra (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Tuwaitha | Rockclimbing IAEA inspectors explore previously inaccessible underground chambers at the Israeli-bombed Tamuz 1 reactor complex (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Tuwaitha | IAEA officials inspected and prepared to remove “a small amount of natural uranium slurry,” previously intended for removal in 1998 (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Radwan and Yarmouk facilities | IAEA radiation surveys (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Taji Engineering facility | IAEA inspectors examined this aircraft engine facility (see GSN, Feb. 18). | | Feb. 7-13 | See GSN, Feb. 14. | |
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