The United States and the United Kingdom are expected today to submit a new resolution to the U.N. Security Council declaring Iraq in violation of its disarmament obligations, U.N. diplomats said (see GSN, Feb. 21). British U.N. Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock is expected to submit the resolution on behalf of the two countries, Security Council diplomats said (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 24).
The Bush administration plans to allow U.N. Security Council members only a short amount of time to decide whether they will support the resolution after the heads of the U.N. inspections teams brief the council next month, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday.
“It isn’t going to be a long period of time from the tabling of the resolution until a judgment is made as to whether the resolution is ready to be voted on or not,” Powell said.
Powell said he saw a briefing by U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, scheduled for March 7, as a last chance for Security Council members to make a decision.
“I would assume that once (they have) made that report, everybody will have one last opportunity to make a judgment,” Powell said. “And shortly after that, judgment will have to be made as to what the Security Council should do,” he added.
Senior White House officials have begun visiting Security Council members in an attempt to gain their support for the new resolution, according to the Washington Times. Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman and Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations Kim Holmes recently visited Mexico, where diplomats complained of a hostile U.S. approach.
“They actually told us: ‘Any country that doesn’t go along with us will be paying a very heavy price,’” a Mexican diplomat said.
Assistant Secretary of State Walter Kansteiner recently met with the leaders of Angola, Guinea and Cameroon — all three dependent on U.S. foreign aid, the Times reported.
“In Africa, the message is simple: Time is running out and we think they should support us,” a U.S. diplomat said (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, Feb. 24).
France Readies Alternative
France is expected soon to circulate a Security Council counterproposal to the U.S.-British resolution, calling for a strict disarmament timetable, according to the Financial Times (see GSN, Feb. 12).
The French proposal, to be submitted “in the next days” would call for the peaceful disarmament of Iraq, but also propose strict deadlines for it to be accomplished, according to a senior official. By establishing deadlines, support could be increased for later military action through a concrete showing of Iraqi noncompliance, U.N. diplomats said. The United States has resisted such a proposal, however, saying deadlines could only extend discussions without results (Betts/Turner, Financial Times, Feb. 24).
Blix Orders Missiles Destroyed
Meanwhile, Blix has established Saturday as a deadline by which Iraq must destroy its stockpile of al-Samoud 2 missiles, which have been found to have a range beyond U.N. mandates (see related GSN story, today). U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said he believed Iraq would comply with the order.
“If they refused to destroy the weapons, the Security Council will have to make a decision,” Annan said. “I don’t see why they would not destroy them,” he added (London Guardian, Feb. 24).
Former Senior Russian Official Visits Baghdad
Former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, a long-time friend of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, arrived in Baghdad Saturday on a mission for Russian President Vladimir Putin, a Russian source in Baghdad said yesterday.
Primakov was expected to meet with senior Iraqi officials before leaving late yesterday, the source said. The source provided no details on the purpose of the trip (Reuters/CNN.com, Feb. 23).
South African Disarmament Experts Arrive in Iraq
A team of South African disarmament experts began talks today with senior Iraqi officials in Baghdad on how Iraq can dispose of its weapons of mass destruction, according to Reuters.
The team, led by South African Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad, arrived in Baghdad Sunday for an open-ended period of time. “We are coming here to give the Iraqis our own experiences on disarmament. The outcome of our visit [is] that we hope to contribute in stopping a war,” Pahad said.
The experts helped disarm South Africa of weapons of mass destruction after the end of apartheid in 1994. They can help Iraq prove it has disarmed itself by aiding Iraqi officials in documentation, said Deon Smit, a South African scientist who was involved in his country’s nuclear disarmament (Reuters/AlertNet, Feb. 24).
The seven-member South African team includes Col. Ben Steyn, chemical and biological defense adviser to the South African surgeon general; Philip Coleman, technical adviser to the South African delegation to the Chemical Weapons Convention; and Daan van Beek, head of the Secretariat for the Council for the Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, which implements South Africa’s nonproliferation legislation.
In a speech to the South African Parliament last week, President Thabo Mbeki praised the experts for their knowledge and their efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Iraq crisis, according to a South African Department of Foreign Affairs release.
“Between them they will be able to address all matters that relate to nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction, missile systems, nonproliferation and disarmament, affecting all weapons of mass destruction,” Mbeki said. “As they leave our shores, we wish them Godspeed, confident that they will contribute everything they can to help Iraq fully to respond proactively to the obligations imposed by the U.N. Security Council resolution 1441,” he added, referring to the resolution that established the current inspections regime (SAPA/BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Feb. 24).
Inspections
U.N. inspectors visited at least four suspect Iraqi sites today, according to the Associated Press. Inspectors visited two plants that produce missile engines and guidance systems, as well as a chemical and explosives plant and an anti-aircraft missile maintenance facility, the Iraqi Information Ministry said (Niko Price, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 24).
Yesterday, inspectors visited at least eight suspect Iraqi sites, according to an IAEA press release. Missile experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission visited al-Quadissiya, al-Melad, and observed a static test of an al-Samoud 2 missile at al-Rafah. UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited al-Murage Company for Perfume Production in Baghdad.
UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited the Tabook State Company, formerly known as the Karbala Ammunition Filling Plant, according to the IAEA release. They also visited the Veterinary College at Mosul University and the Ninevah Food Industrial Company, both located in the northern city of Mosul.
IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey near al-Muthanna site (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Feb. 23).
For further information, see:
UNMOVIC
IAEA Iraq Action Team
U.N. Resolution 1441
Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 200 U.N. personnel, including about 150 inspectors, are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ recently reported activities.
| Date | Site | Activity | | Feb. 24 | Missile engine and guidance system production plant | See GSN, Feb. 24. | | Missile engine and guidance system production plant | | Chemical and explosives plant | | Anti-aircraft missile maintenance facility | | Feb. 23 | Al-Rafah | UNMOVIC missile inspectors observed a static test of an al-Samoud 2 missile (see GSN, Feb. 24). | | Al-Quadissiya | See GSN, Feb. 24. | | Al-Melad | | Al-Murage Company for Perfume Production in Baghdad | | Tabook State Company, formerly known as the Karbala Ammunition Filling Plant | | Veterinary College at Mosul University in Mosul | | Ninevah Food Industrial Company in Mosul | | Al-Muthanna area | IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (see GSN, Feb. 24). | | Feb. 22 | Ibn al-Haytahm | UNMOVIC missile inspectors inventoried al-Samoud 2 missile components and subassemblies (IAEA release, Feb. 22). | | Undisclosed area | UNMOVIC missile inspectors inspected the remains of a liquid engine propellant test stand and tagged two pieces of manufacturing equipment (IAEA release, Feb. 22). | | Al-Nasser | IAEA release, Feb. 22. | | Iraqi Army Liquid Propellant Analytical Laboratory in west Baghdad | | Research center in the Baghdad area | UNMOVIC biological inspectors observed the destruction of a small amount of previously monitored out-of-date bacterial growth media (IAEA release, Feb. 22). | | Testing laboratory in the Baghdad area | | Yarmouk GE Site area | IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (IAEA release, Feb. 25). | | Al-Kadessiya General Establishment | IAEA release, Feb. 22. | | Al-Nahrawan munitions factory | | Feb. 21 | Musaayib Power Station | UNMOVIC missile inspectors checked for possible storage of missile-related items (IAEA release, Feb. 21). | | Area west of Baghdad | UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of an undisclosed site (IAEA release, Feb. 21). | | Area northwest of Baghdad | UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of an undisclosed site (IAEA release, Feb. 21). | | Feb. 14-20 | See GSN, Feb. 21. | |
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During a visit of international nuclear experts, Iran announced Saturday that it has rejected for now a request to cooperate with enhanced measures to monitor its nuclear activities (see GSN, Feb. 21).
The International Atomic Energy Agency had asked Iran to sign an Additional Protocol to its safeguards agreement with the nuclear watchdog. The protocol would permit the agency to conduct more intrusive inspections and environmental monitoring in Iran.
Gholamreza Aghazadeh, Iran’s top nuclear energy official, said Iran would not sign the protocol because few other countries have done so. It would, however, comply with its existing nuclear nonproliferation commitments as it builds new nuclear reactors and fuel production facilities, he said.
“All our developments will be under the oversight of the IAEA, but we will leave the road open to the Additional Protocol in the future,” Aghazadeh said.
After arriving Friday for a three-day visit, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei left one day earlier than scheduled, leaving his delegation to complete their tour of Iranian nuclear facilities (Azadeh Moaveni, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 23).
“I made it clear that with Iran developing a sophisticated fuel-cycle program, it is important for the agency to have as much authority, as much information, as possible,” ElBaradei said. “I was assured that this issue will be under active consideration by the Iranian government, and this is an issue I will continue to discuss,” he added.
In Washington meanwhile, a State Department statement reaffirmed the U.S. assessment of Iran’s nuclear intentions, saying Iran has a “nuclear program based on deception and bad faith, and an ambitious rush to develop a nuclear fuel cycle, whose true purpose can only be to produce fissile material for its nuclear weapons program”
“Whatever the Iranians showed him [ElBaradei] about their hitherto clandestine uranium-enrichment program, it is akin to a midnight conversation, disclosed only after the facility’s existence was revealed by an Iranian opposition group,” the State Department said (Miranda Eeles, London Times, Feb. 24).
Iran, however, said it was acting in good faith. “Iran intended to clarify that all doors would be open to the agency and its members and that Iran would proceed transparently,” Aghazadeh said. “If a country has any doubt about Iran’s nuclear programs, it should go to the agency rather than slandering Iran,” he added (Moaveni, Los Angeles Times).
ElBaradei and a team of experts visited a developing uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz but the IAEA chief did not travel to the heavy water plant under construction at Arak or the nuclear reactor being built at Bushehr (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, Feb. 23).
At Natanz, the IAEA experts saw a network of centrifuges to enrich uranium and they learned that Iran has the capability to build more centrifuges (Michael Gordon, New York Times, Feb. 22).
After four hours of meetings in Beijing with President Jiang Zemin and senior Chinese officials, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the two countries had not agreed to a shared strategy on North Korea or Iraq (see GSN, Feb. 20).
The White House wants China to pressure Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear aspirations, the New York Times reported.
“I think they are anxious to play as helpful a role as they can” regarding North Korea, Powell said. “I think they will play that role quietly,” he added.
Powell also met with Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao, who is set to assume the country’s top position. There are “new ideas” being discussed to bring Pyongyang to negotiate an end to the crisis, according to Powell (James Dao, New York Times, Feb. 24).
Powell also issued a warning to North Korea on its alleged weapons program.
“I cannot emphasize enough how seriously all of us would view any move by North Korea toward reprocessing of the spent fuel rods and production of nuclear weapons,” he said (see GSN, Jan. 31).
The next stop on Powell’s East Asian trip is South Korea, where he is scheduled to meet with President-elect Roh Moo-hyun, who will take office tomorrow. Roh urged the United States to view North Korea as a partner in negotiations.
“North Korea was opening up and … is already changing,” Roh said. “If we give them what they desperately want — regime security, normal treatment and economic assistance — they will be willing to give up their nuclear ambitions. We should not, therefore, treat them as criminals but as partners in negotiations,” he added (Charles Whelan, Agence France-Presse, Feb. 24).
Food Aid to Resume
Powell said Saturday that the United States would soon resume food shipments to ease North Korean hunger (see GSN, Feb. 12).
“The need is still great. You go through all the politics; there are kids out there that are starving. If we can help them, we will,” Powell said.
The World Food Program said that it cannot feed large areas of North Korea because of insufficient international support. The United States has not contributed to the program since December, Knight Ridder news agency reported.
The U.S. Congress recently granted budgetary authority that will allow donations to resume, according to Powell (Michael Zielenziger, Knight Ridder/San Jose Mercury News, Feb. 22).
The U.S. Defense Department is examining a proposal to replace the nuclear warheads on some ICBMs with conventional weapons for use in short-notice strikes against enemy states, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, July 24, 2002).
Such a plan, which is just starting to be considered, would give the United States the ability to conduct long-range strikes with conventional weapons and avoid putting U.S. pilots at risk, military officials said. The Air Force Space Command is expected to begin formally considering converting some Minuteman 3 ICBMs to conventional warheads this fall during a two-year review, the Times reported.
The conventional warhead on top of the converted missile could be taken from a number of high explosive or other specialized warheads, including bunker-busting munitions, said Maj. Gen. Timothy McMahon, commander of the 20th Air Force at F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, which maintains the U.S. arsenal of 500 long-range Minuteman 3 and 45 Peacekeeper missiles. The sheer impact of the missile, which moves at a speed of 14,000 feet per second, would be itself highly damaging, he added.
McMahon said he would be “very, very surprised,” if at some point the United States did not employ ballistic missiles armed with conventional warheads.
“If the nation decides that it wants to place at risk certain targets that emerge, and that if you need to strike those things in a very prompt manner — 35 to 45 minutes — a ballistic missile gives you that capability,” McMahon said. “It’s basically long-range artillery. But the type of munition on board would be unlike any other artillery we’ve ever used,” he added.
The proposal does raise several concerns, according to the Times. For example, any long-range missiles armed with conventional warheads would still be counted under existing arms control treaties, such as START, said Pentagon officials. Arms control experts said that even though converting nuclear missiles to a conventional role would reduce the number of U.S. strategic weapons, there is no guarantee that the missiles will not be refitted someday with nuclear warheads — a move other countries could follow.
“It could elicit a response from other missile powers, like China or Russia,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association (Eric Schmitt, New York Times, Feb. 24).
For further information, see:
START I Text and Associated Documents (U.S. Defense Department)
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The recent escape of a research monkey from a University of California at Davis facility has raised concerns among area residents about the security of a proposed Biosafety Level 4 laboratory the university is seeking to build, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, July 18, 2002).
The 2-year old female rhesus macaque, which was to be used for breeding purposes, escaped the California National Primate Research Center Feb. 13 when handlers were cleaning cages. The macaque went behind the cages, and the center’s employees reported hearing a slurping sound, as if the monkey had went down a small drain, according to the AP. A search of the center’s plumbing using fiber-optic cameras, however, failed to find the monkey.
In the 41 years that the primate center has been in operation, 82 monkeys have been able to escape and enjoy life on the outside before being quickly captured or return voluntarily, said UC-Davis spokeswoman Lisa Lapin.
The primate center would supply research animals to the proposed laboratory, for which UC-Davis submitted a grant application this month to the National Institutes of Health. The at-large monkey is disease-free because the primate center raises research animals for Biosafety Level 2 and 3 diseases, which have treatments available, university officials said. They added that the monkey would not have been able to break out of the proposed laboratory, which would employ armed guards.
Still, area residents who oppose the Biosafety Level 4 facility said the escape raised questions about the proposed laboratory’s security.
“If they can’t manage these monkeys when they’ve got level two and three diseases, how will they manage monkeys with level four diseases?” said Joshua English.
California National Primate Research Center Director Dallas Hyde said the security levels between the primate center and the proposed laboratory would be very different. “Animals that go in there don’t come out alive,” he said (Brian Melley, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 23).
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The U.S. Army announced last week the creation of the Chemical Materials Agency, which will take control of the formerly separate tasks of storing chemical weapons and destroying them, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Jan. 3).
The Army is expected to take control of the new agency by October and Michael Parker, deputy commander of the Solider Biological and Chemical Command, which currently oversees chemical weapons storage, has been selected as the new agency’s acting director, AP reported.
“The CMA brings all the parties under one roof necessary to carry out the mission of the safe storage and elimination of obsolete and aging chemical weapons,” Parker said in a press statement.
The Chemical Weapons Working Group, a watchdog organization that has criticized the Army’s chemical weapons destruction efforts, praised the creation of the CMA and Parker’s appointment as its head.
“If it’s salvageable, this is the best shot we’ve had in 20 years to get it right,” said Craig Williams, director of the group. “Mr. Parker’s record reflects a real sensitivity to shooting straight, meaningful community involvement, straight-forwardness with the Congress and all the attributes necessary,” he added (Jeffrey McMurray, Associated Press/Tuscaloosa News, Feb. 21).
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A top Iraqi official said today that Baghdad wants to negotiate the U.N. order to destroy its al-Samoud 2 missiles, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 21).
Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix delivered a letter Friday demanding that Iraq begin to destroy all its al-Samoud 2 missiles by March 1. A panel of U.N. experts found that the missile’s range exceeds the 150-kilometer set by post-Gulf War U.N. resolutions.
“This is being studied very carefully and the channels are still open” between Iraq and the United Nations, Lt. Gen. Amer al-Saadi said Monday. “We will come up with a decision quite soon,” he added.
“There is an open dialogue between us and (the weapons inspectors) and we hope that it will be settled,” al-Saadi said.
The top Iraqi liaison to the weapons inspectors said last night that the missiles, in their final forms, will not exceed the 150-kilometer limit.
“The missile was and is still being researched and developed and hasn’t reached its final stage. The weights are not final,” Lt. Gen. Hossam Mohamed Amin said. “We have suggested to (the inspectors) that they randomly choose any missile they want and check its range. We are sure its range will be less,” he added.
Amin said Iraq was waiting for a response from chief U.N. inspector Hans Blix after Baghdad sent him a letter asking that he reconsider his order to destroy the missiles. A U.N. official in Baghdad, however, said that Blix had answered by ordering the missiles destroyed by the end of this week.
“This is not negotiable,” the official said.
U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said that he expects Baghdad to comply with the order.
“If they refused to destroy the weapons, the Security Council will have to make a decision,” Annan said. “I don’t see why they would not destroy them,” he added (Niko Price, Associated Press/MSNBC.com, Feb. 24).
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In a report sent to Congress this month, the Pentagon’s top weapons testing official said the national missile defense system that the White House plans to deploy in 2004 “has yet to demonstrate significant operational capability” (see GSN, May 6, 2002).
The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is still in its early stages and suffers “from a lack of production-representative test articles and test infrastructure limitations,” according to Thomas Christie, the Defense Department’s director of operational test and evaluation.
The report says that the testing limitations are a result of the Missile Defense Agency’s slow and cautious pace.
“The GMD program is taking a slower, more deliberate approach to testing to reduce both testing and program risk,” Christie said.
The report agrees with the Missile Defense Agency’s decision to stop intercept testing until an operational booster is developed, Inside Missile Defense reported.
Christie said the missile defense test bed, being built in Alaska, will answer some but not all questions about the program.
“Currently the planned test bed infrastructure for block 2004 includes hardware and software components that are in active development,” the report says. “As the test bed matures and capabilities are demonstrated, an inherent defensive capability will develop. However, it will be very difficult to estimate operational availability or performance in real engagement conditions. This is a test bed, first and foremost,” the report adds (Thomas Duffy, Inside Missile Defense, Feb. 19).
Testing Waiver Sought
The Pentagon is currently seeking a waiver to exempt the missile defense system from standard testing requirements (see GSN, Feb. 14), a move that has raised concern from lawmakers and experts who recalled Pentagon efforts last year to reduce the information it provides to Congress on missile defense programs (see GSN, Aug. 9, 2002).
“The moves last year were just about reporting requirements. This is different,” said Philip Coyle, director of operational testing and evaluation for the Defense Department from 1994 to 2001. “This is about obeying the law. Without these tests, we may never know whether this system works or not, and if they are done after this system is deployed, we won’t know until we’ve spent $70 billion on a Ground-based Missile Defense system,” he added.
Democratic Senators Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), Carl Levin (Mich.) and Jack Reed (R.I.) have voiced their concerns with the proposed waiver.
“I believe that any deployed missile defense system must meet the same requirements and standards that we set for all other fully operational weapons systems. Indeed, given the potential cost of a failure of missile defense, I believe that, if anything, it should be required to meet more stringent test standards than normally required,” Feinstein wrote in a letter to Rumsfeld Wednesday (Esther Schrader, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 24).
A Japanese newspaper has reported that Japan is set to launch its first pair of intelligence satellites by the end of next month, the Chicago Tribune reported today (see GSN, Nov. 12, 2002). Japan is scheduled to launch the two spy satellites March 28 and they will provide the country with a missile launch-detection capability, according to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Chicago Tribune, Feb. 23). Currently, Japan is dependent on U.S. and French commercial satellites for intelligence information on objects such as North Korean missile launch pads, according to Agence France-Presse.
The first pair of spy satellites will also be equipped with optical sensors able to identify objects one-meter long, AFP reported. Japan is also scheduled to launch three additional pairs of spy satellites by March 2007 (Agence-France Presse, Feb. 21).
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2002 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
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