By Bryan Bender
Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — The United States will make its strongest case yet tomorrow to convince the U.N. Security Council that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is concealing outlawed weapons of mass destruction and must be removed from power.
While the White House is expressing new confidence that convincing intelligence information can persuade the council to authorize military force, many experts doubt the Bush administration will make sufficient headway this week to change minds and swing international support in its favor.
The best hope of a U.N. coalition in Iraq, they contend, will lie in the forthcoming assessments by U.N. weapons inspectors, who are continuing their search operations in Iraq despite what they describe as a continued lack of adequate cooperation. Their next update to the Security Council is scheduled for Feb. 14.
Meanwhile, the chief inspectors, Hans Blix of the U.N. Monitoring and Verification Commission, and International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohammed ElBaradei, are to return to Iraq Saturday at Baghdad’s invitation to seek greater Iraqi cooperation — including Baghdad’s permission for U-2 spy missions over Iraq and one-on-one interviews with Iraqi weapons scientists.
“We both agree that time is running out,” ElBaradei said yesterday. “But we both agree we would like to exhaust the inspection process,” he added
However, Powell’s address to the Security Council tomorrow could still prove to be a critical turning point, marking the beginning of the end of U.S. diplomatic maneuvering and the opening bell for a U.S.-led war, with or without international backing. The primary target of Powell’s presentation will be France, which remains opposed to military action and which holds a veto in the Security Council that could defeat any proposed new war resolution.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair failed earlier today to persuade France to join a U.S.-led coalition ready to take quick military action against Iraq, according to the Associated Press.
Despite intense pressure by Blair, French President Jacques Chirac said he remained steadfastly opposed to war against Baghdad without giving U.N. weapons inspectors as much time they need to do their work, according to the report. U.S. and British officials have said inspectors might have as many as six more weeks to try and make progress, but they would not support any extended timetable.
On the other hand, permanent Security Council member Russia, which had previously expressed opposition to war in Iraq, appears to be softening its position. Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday a second resolution might be required if weapon inspectors remain dissatisfied with Iraq’s cooperation.
Making the Case
According to U.S. officials, Powell is expected to present three types of intelligence information pointing to continued Iraqi intransigence in the face of U.N. Resolution 1441, calling on Iraq to surrender its suspected nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs.
The first will be communications intercepts between the senior Iraqi leadership and officials involved in WMD programs, according to U.S. officials, highlighting what they have done in recent weeks to circumvent the U.N. inspection teams.
Also to be included in the package will be commercial satellite imagery — as opposed to U.S. government-owned spy satellite photos — showing Iraqi personnel “cleaning up” sites ahead of U.N. inspectors. Photographs of mobile biological weapons labs, the so-called “Winnebagos of Death” that have been of considerable concern for U.S. intelligence officials, might also be included, officials said.
Other intelligence will include shipping manifests of Iraqi equipment imports that U.S. intelligence officials believe can be used to develop weapons of mass destruction.
“We will, in sum, offer a straightforward, sober and compelling demonstration that [Iraqi President] Saddam [Hussein] is concealing the evidence of his weapons of mass destruction, while preserving the weapons themselves,” Powell wrote in Monday’s Wall Street Journal.
However, Richard Haass, the State Department director of policy planning, cautioned that there would be no so-called smoking gun in Powell’s presentation. “I don’t want to raise expectations,” he told the Egyptian newspaper al-Ahram yesterday. “We will not present pictures of 30,000 stockpiled warheads which can each carry chemical weapons, if that is what you mean by evidence.”
Indeed, the last-ditch effort to indict Hussein before the world body is an “unbelievable gamble” on Powell’s part, according to a former CIA official.
“If Powell presents good evidence, he’ll hit the jackpot and dozens of countries will support the U.S.,” said Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst. “But if he lays a goose egg because the evidence isn’t very convincing, it will pull the rug out from under the administration and they’ll see support rapidly drain away, making it very hard to pull together a coalition for war,” Pollack said.
Iraq is already trying to discredit tomorrow’s U.S. intelligence briefing. “I think they will be fabricated,” said Gen. Hossam Mohammed Amin, head of Iraq’s weapons monitoring directorate and the chief liaison with the U.N. weapons inspectors. “There will be space photos, aerial photos, of some vehicles that could be interpreted in different ways just to create suspicion around the Iraqi declaration. They will not reveal real evidences because we have nothing. We have no weapons of mass destruction.”
Seeking a Resolution
Whether Powell can convince the Security Council tomorrow or not, in recent days Washington has decided to at least try to get another resolution passed, even though it has said it does not need one and that the more than a dozen resolutions calling on Iraq to disarm over the last decade provide enough justification.
“Should the United Nations decide to pass a second resolution, it will be welcomed if it is another signal that we’re intent upon disarming Saddam Hussein,” Bush said Friday after meetings with Blair in Washington. However, he stressed, “[Resolution] 1441 gives us the authority to move without a second resolution.”
At Blair’s urging, Washington says it will begin lobbying for a second resolution authorizing military force against Iraq. So far, however, little progress has been made, according to Bush administration officials.
Another proposal for a new resolution circulating at U.N. headquarters, according to U.S. and international sources, would label Iraq’s 12,000-page weapons declaration as incomplete and inaccurate and declare that Baghdad is not cooperating fully with inspectors — effectively finding Iraq in material breach of the Resolution 1441.
Former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, who last year urged the White House to seek U.N. support before acting alone, said one last attempt to bring along the U.N. is necessary. Washington “should be prepared to try for a vote supporting such action if we believe we are close to having the nine affirmative votes needed, unless we think one of the other three permanent members (France, Russia, or China) would use its veto — something I personally don’t think would occur if there are nine votes in favor,” he wrote in today’s Wall Street Journal.
“The case for military action is … compelling,” he wrote. “It cannot be deferred indefinitely as Iraq continues to play its cat-and-mouse game with U.N. inspectors. Nor can it be held hostage to lowest common denominator consensus in the Security Council,” according to Baker, who rallied the U.N. coalition during the Gulf War more than a decade ago.
“Yet,” Baker added, “the administration is absolutely right in going the last mile and sending Secretary of State Colin Powell to consult again with the Security Council and lay out, commensurate with protection of intelligence assets, further evidence of Saddam’s efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction.”
The Bush administration remains confident it will persuade the Security Council to support military action. “Things are moving our way,” said one U.S. official. “It’s possible to find common ground, but others are going to have to come to us. And if they have something pretty good, we’ll listen. But we don’t need to look back, and we won’t,” the official said.
Alexander Haig, another former secretary of state, agreed that getting support may not be as difficult as some people think. He indicated that France, and Germany, might come aboard in the end.
“Surely, Jacques Chirac is not sending France’s pride, the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, to the Persian Gulf in order to prevent an American-led military action against Iraq,” Haig wrote in another Wall Street Journal commentary today. “Just as surely, Gerhard Schroeder will not prevent the movement of American forces and aircraft through Germany,” Haig said.
A Tough Sell
Private experts, however, do not appear as hopeful that Powell can turn things around at the United Nations.
“I think Saddam has done his homework,” said Patrick Garrett, associate analyst at GlobalSecurity.org. “It is going to be incredibly difficult. I don’t think this is going to be the piece of evidence that members of the Security Council want to see. We don’t know if they are going to present anything we haven’t seen already,” Garrett said.
He said Powell’s address would merely be one more attempt in a series of incremental arguments to help build international support, which will ultimately come when Security Council members themselves are convinced that all diplomatic approaches have been exhausted.
Other experts are similarly skeptical about Powell’s prospects. “We don’t have any hard evidence of Saddam’s programs and whatever weapons he might have,” said Joseph Cirincione, director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“The links between Baghdad and al-Qaeda are tenuous. If the administration tries to prove that Osama [bin Laden] and Saddam are strategic allies it may backfire,” he added. “It may undermine U.S. credibility, not enhance it,” Cirincione said.
“Without compelling hard evidence it is going to be very difficult to get a resolution of any kind out of the Security Council,” Cirincione said. “They are more suspicious of U.S. intentions than Iraqi intentions. For most of the Security Council, the punishment is worse than the transgression. They will not be able to show the threat is growing and imminent. I think the administration has got a weak case,” he said.
Powell’s presentation, however, may be just as much for domestic consumption as the international audience.
“They are merely showing the American public they are trying to make a good-faith effort to get a resolution and get the U.N. on board,” Garrett said. “If they don’t get it, it doesn’t mean war isn’t going happen,” he added.
The heads of the U.N. weapons inspections teams in Iraq plan to conduct a two-day visit to Baghdad starting Feb. 8, even though they have not received assurances from Iraqi officials that remaining inspections issues will be resolved, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 3).
“There are no guarantees,” said Hans Blix, head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission. “We have simply indicated the issues which should be easy” to resolve, he said.
Blix had conditionally accepted Iraq’s invitation Friday, wanting assurances that Iraq would allow inspectors to conduct private interviews with Iraqi scientists and agree to U.S.-piloted U-2 surveillance flights (see GSN, Jan. 31). “We assume because we haven’t heard from them that they are willing to accept” those terms, said U.N. spokesman Ewen Buchanan.
U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair have indicated they view the visit as an attempt by Iraq to extend inspections, the Times reported. Bush has said it would be inappropriate for Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei to “negotiate” with Iraqi officials. However, the two chief inspectors have said they are willing to give Iraq a chance to address remaining questions about its weapons of mass destruction programs (Julia Preston, New York Times, Feb. 4).
Iraq Indicates Compromises
Iraqi presidential adviser Amir al-Saadi yesterday said Iraq might be ready to agree to a proposal to allow foreigners to act as witnesses to interviews between inspectors and Iraqi weapons scientists and technicians, according to the Associated Press.
“It is an interesting idea that we shall explore,” al-Saadi said of the proposal, put forth by members of the European Parliament. He added, however, that “it’s the choice of ... those who are being asked for private interviews.”
Iraq might also be ready to compromise on the unresolved issue of overflights by U.S.-piloted U-2 surveillance aircraft, according to the Associated Press. Iraq and the United Nations have begun discussing a proposal on the use of lower-flying unmanned aircraft that would be German-supplied and operated, al-Saadi said yesterday (Associated Press/USA Today, Feb. 4).
Blix to Convene Missile Panel
Blix has also decided to convene a panel of ballistic missile experts as early as next week in New York to determine whether two Iraqi missile programs represent violations of U.N. disarmament resolutions, according to the Washington Post.
The panel will evaluate whether the al-Samoud 2 and al-Fatah missile programs, which have both been flight tested beyond U.N.-mandated ranges, represent a material breach of U.N. Resolution 1441, which established the current inspections regime. Blix told the U.N. Security Council last week he would present findings on the missile programs at a briefing scheduled for Feb. 14. He has ordered Iraq to suspend the two programs until a decision has been made, the Post said.
“It could be a big deal,” said a Security Council diplomat. “If those missiles are found to be in breach, and therefore their destruction is ordered, it would be very difficult for the Iraqis to swallow. They put a lot of money and pride into these weapons.”
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation John Wolf told Blix late last month that the United States views the missile programs as a clear violation of Iraq’s disarmament obligations, the Post reported. Other Security Council members, however, have differed as to the seriousness of the potential violation, considering Iraq had admitted to the council it had developed the missiles.
“The fact that they had developed these things would not” alone represent a cause for military action, said a European diplomat. “But if they were found in breach and resisted destruction of the missiles, that would be a serious issue,” the diplomat added (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, Feb. 4).
Iraq “Engaged In a Campaign of Obstruction,” London Says
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom yesterday released a report harshly criticizing Iraq’s compliance with inspections, saying Baghdad is “now engaged in a campaign of obstruction” (see GSN, Jan. 24).
The report, Iraq — Its Infrastructure of Concealment, Deception and Intimidation, outlines how the various Iraqi security services conceal WMD materials and information from inspectors.
“The role of the inspectors is to monitor and verify the disarmament of Iraq as demanded by the international community at the end of the Gulf War, 12 years ago. Inspectors are not a detective agency: They can only work effectively if the Iraqi regime cooperates proactively with the inspectors,” the report says. “Iraq has singularly failed to do this,” it adds.
Iraqi security agents, who outnumber inspectors by 200-to-1, work to hide WMD-related documents, materials and equipment, according to the report. Agents hide documents in unlikely places, such as the private homes of low-level officials, who are warned of serious consequences if the materials are discovered. In addition, the documents and materials are constantly on the move, “making it difficult to trace or find without absolutely fresh intelligence,” the report says.
Iraq has also conducted an extensive surveillance and monitoring operation against the inspectors, the report says. Iraqi security services have installed surveillance equipment throughout the hotels and offices used by inspectors, down to bugging their telephones and meeting rooms, it says. The inspectors are accompanied by security guards and drivers that are, in reality, members of the al-Mukhabarat intelligence service. Al-Mukhabarat agents have even staged car accidents to cause traffic jams when inspectors decide to suddenly change their destination en route to a site, according to the report.
Before inspectors even arrive in Iraq, the Iraqi security services attempt to learn as much as possible about them — such as whether they have a family or any exploitable weaknesses, according to the report. Iraq also conducts a campaign of intimidation by staging demonstrations and having “stooges” make threatening gestures, it says.
“The whole effect is one of intimidation and psychological pressure,” the report says (Mike Nartker, GSN).
Inspections
U.N. diplomats have said consensus is nearing on a proposal to extend inspections until mid-March, at which time the Security Council would decide whether to authorize the use of military force against Iraq, USA Today reported yesterday (Bill Nichols, USA Today, Feb. 3).
Inspectors today visited at least eight suspect Iraqi sites, according to Reuters. UNMOVIC missile experts visited the al-Rafah liquid engine test facility, about 80 miles southwest of Baghdad, the al-Harith missile maintenance workshop in Taji, north of Baghdad, and the al-Mamoun factory of the al-Rasheed State Company, about 40 miles south of Baghdad.
UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited a water purification station in Doura, just outside of Baghdad; and an agricultural supply company in Waziriya in the Iraqi capital, according to Reuters. UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited the Nassr State Establishment, about 25 miles northwest of Baghdad.
IAEA inspectors visited two sites — a military compound near Baghdad and the al-Salam compound at Salman Pak, south of Baghdad (Reuters, Feb. 4).
Yesterday, inspectors discovered a damaged missile warhead and a ceramic missile mold at the al-Nida State Company, about 10 miles southeast of Baghdad, Iraqi officials said.
An UNMOVIC team discovered a damaged modified warhead of a Luna short-range missile, the Iraqi News Agency reported, quoting a source at the Iraqi National Monitoring Directorate. The Luna missile has a range of about 45 miles, under the 100-mile U.N. limit, and the warhead find was not significant, the source said.
“The head of the team was informed that the warhead is a leftover which has nothing to do with past proscribed programs,” the source told INA. “This modification is mentioned in the comprehensive and full declaration of missiles which was handed to the previous (U.N.) Special Commission in 1996 and also in Iraq's comprehensive declaration presented to UNMOVIC on Dec. 7,” the source added.
Inspectors have so far refused to comment on the find, according to Reuters (Reuters/Yahoo.com, Feb. 3).
For further information, see:
UNMOVIC
IAEA Iraq Action Team
U.N. Resolution 1441
After meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair today, French President Jacques Chirac said France remained unconvinced about an early attack on Iraq.
“There is still much to be done in the way of disarmament by peaceful means,” Chirac said at a joint press conference with Blair. “France is waiting to see what [U.S. Secretary of State] Colin Powell says tomorrow and what (chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans) Blix says on the 14th,” he said, adding that France would like to give inspections in Iraq more time.
The two countries agreed, however, that Iraq must disarm and the United Nations should continue to oversee that disarmament, Blair and Chirac said (Angela Doland, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 4).
U.S., Foreign Intelligence Services Tracking Iraqi Agents
The CIA and several intelligence services from U.S. allies are preparing to arrest Iraqi agents and known terrorists to prevent possible attacks on U.S. citizens and interests throughout the world in the event of a war with Iraq, according to senior Bush administration officials, the Washington Post reports today.
“We and our allies are bracing for a terrorist offensive, and we are keeping track of Iraqi intelligence officers around the world,” a senior U.S. intelligence official said.
Non-U.S. intelligence services have begun tracking and interrogating associates of Iraqi agents and some Iraqi expatriates, the official said. They are also monitoring signs Hussein has sent agents abroad to supply Iraqi or other terrorists with conventional, chemical or biological weapons, officials said. The search is underway in the Middle East and Europe, as well as some sections of Asia and Africa where anti-U.S. terrorists are believed to be active, White House officials said. They added that the campaign has not been launched in response to a specific threat, but because of U.S. intelligence that Hussein might respond to U.S.-led military action by ordering terrorist attacks.
Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan warned last week that Iraq was prepared to unleash “thousands of suicide attackers” against U.S. interests.
“We have no long-range missiles or bomber squadrons, but we will deploy thousands of suicide attackers,” Ramadan said, according to the German weekly Der Spiegel. “These are our new weapons, and they will be used not only in Iraq,” he added (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Feb. 4).
No More Funding for Opposition Groups.
The U.S. State Department said yesterday it did not include funding for Iraqi opposition groups in its fiscal 2004 budget (see GSN, Jan. 24). In fiscal 2003, the United States set aside $25 million to help fund such groups.
“We don't feel it’s necessary to fund it any longer,” Christopher Burnham, assistant secretary of state for resource management, said of the Iraqi opposition. State Department officials were hazy as to why the funding was dropped, according the Boston Globe (John Donnelly, Boston Globe, Feb. 4).
Diplomats Leaving Baghdad
Many diplomats have begun leaving Baghdad as the threat of military action increases, the Arab News reported today. Already, the Yugoslav and Spanish ambassadors to Iraq have left the country, sources in Baghdad said. Polish Ambassador Krzysztof Bernacki, who also acts as the sole U.S. representative in Iraq, will leave tomorrow “for long consultations in his country,” the Polish Embassy said (Kim Sengupta, Arab News, Feb. 4).
For further information, see:
UNMOVIC
IAEA Iraq Action Team
U.N. Resolution 1441
Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ reported activities.
| Date | Site | Activity | | Feb. 4 | Al-Rafah liquid engine test facility, about 80 miles southwest of Baghdad | See GSN, Feb. 4. | | Al-Harith missile maintenance workshop in Taji, north of Baghdad | | Al-Mamoun factory of the al-Rasheed State Company, about 40 miles south of Baghdad | | Water purification station in Doura, just outside of Baghdad | | Agricultural supply company in Waziriya in Baghdad | | Nassr State Establishment, about 25 miles northwest of Baghdad | | Military compound near Baghdad | | Al-Salam compound at Salman Pak, south of Baghdad | | Feb. 3 | Al-Nidaa State Company | UNMOVIC missile inspectors discovered a ceramic missile mold and a damaged warhead for the Luna short-range missile. Iraq has said the missile’s range is within U.N. limits (see GSN, Feb. 4). | | Feb. 2 | Chemistry laboratory in the College of Science at Salahaddin University in Erbil, the capital of Kurdish-controlled Iraq | See GSN, Feb. 3. | | Biology laboratory in the College of Science at Salahaddin University in Erbil, the capital of Kurdish-controlled Iraq | | Feb. 1 | Waziriyah Industrial Complex | UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the site obtain clarifications on the present status of al-Samoud ballistic missile guidance and control activities and on the January semi-annual declaration for the site (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Al-Mamoun Factory | UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the site to obtain clarification on the latest declaration for the site (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Headquarters of the al-Raya General Company | UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the site to obtain clarification on the latest declaration for the site (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Biotechnology Department of the College of Science at Saddam University in Baghdad | See GSN, Feb. 3. | | Biology Department of the College of Education at Saddam University in Baghdad | | Eastern Distillery Company in Baghdad | | Al-Shaheed State Company | | Tuz Airfield | Inspectors traveled to the site via helicopter to interview the senior officer present and to inspect the site’s ammunition storage areas and aircraft shelters (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Tho al-Fiker industrial machining and manufacturing facility north of Baghdad | See GSN, Feb. 3. | | College of Science at Saddam University in Baghdad | | College of Engineering at Saddam University in Baghdad | | Area southeast of Baghdad | IAEA inspectors conducted a motorized radiation survey (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Jan. 31 | Abu Ghraib Ammunition Factory | Inspectors visited the site’s production area, quality control, computer system and several warehouses (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Fallujah 2 | UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Fallujah 3 | UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Agricultural and Biological Research Center | UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center | UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Former biological research facilities at Salman Pak | UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (see GSN, Feb. 3). | | Al-Yarmouk State Company | See GSN, Jan. 31. | | 7 Nissan Company in Nahrawan, about 20 miles east of Baghdad | | Agricultural equipment company in Waziriya in Baghdad | | Jan. 24- Jan. 30 | See GSN, Jan. 31. | |
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U.S. President George W. Bush has not requested any money to support the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization in fiscal 2004, the Wall Street Journal reported today (see GSN, Jan. 17).
The move is the first concrete sign the Bush administration might terminate a key 1994 bilateral agreement, from which KEDO was created, according to the Journal.
U.S. officials said money could be redirected to KEDO if a diplomatic solution to the current nuclear crisis is found.
“If KEDO survives … and if we want KEDO to continue to maintain what it is doing right now, and if we are looking at resuming shipments of fuel oil, then we will take care of what needs to be taken care of,” said Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Christopher Burnham.
South Korea has been encouraging Washington to maintain its commitment to KEDO, the Journal reported.
“The South has been arguing that we don’t want to give the North a pretext to begin reprocessing” by pulling out of the energy deal, said Victor Cha, a Korean expert at Georgetown University. “That has now been undercut,” he added (David Cloud, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 4).
Meanwhile, the U.S. Defense Department might send 24 long-range B-52 and B-1 bombers to Guam in response to the nuclear crisis, the New York Times reported today.
The move would be intended to deter North Korean “opportunism” while the United States focuses on Iraq and to allow Bush a variety of military options if diplomacy does not resolve the dispute, according to officials.
“It’s fair to say that there is a broad assumption in the administration now that Kim Jong Il is out to produce his weapons as fast as he can,” said a senior U.S. official (see GSN, Feb. 3). “We hope they can be dissuaded by diplomacy, pressure from us and from China and from Russia. But there are no guarantees any of that will work,” the official added.
Bush has repeatedly said the United States “has no intention of invading North Korea,” according to the Times.
“It is standard practice for us to review our defensive posture for existing security commitments when U.S. forces are preparing for potential operations elsewhere in the world,” said Pentagon spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Davis. “Such planning could result in the movement of forces, but only as a prudent measure to ensure that we maintain our ability to rapidly respond to contingencies if needed,” he added (Sanger/Shanker, New York Times, Feb. 4).
“Fear” Drives Pyongyang
A South Korean official yesterday said North Korea was motivated by fear and sought assurances that Pyongyang’s security would not be compromised, the Washington Times reported.
“At heart, the North would like to have their regime guaranteed,” said Chang Young-dal, a member of President-elect Roh Moo-hyun’s Millennium Democratic Party. “The actions they have taken lately have come because they fear for their survival, because of the weakness of the regime and the difficult economic conditions. At the same time, the United States must be prepared for a comprehensive dialogue with North Korea so a package settlement on the nuclear issue and the Korean Peninsula situation can be resolved in the near future,” he added.
Chang also said Roh’s reported resentment of the United States has been overblown by the media.
“Mr. Roh was very unfamiliar to many in the United States when he was elected,” Chang said. “But when we heard there were concerns in Washington about him, we just laughed. I think he will be able to develop a stronger relationship than ever in the past,” he added (David Sands, Washington Times, Feb. 4).
IAEA Will Meet Feb. 12
The International Atomic Energy Agency announced its Board of Governors would meet Feb. 12 to declare Pyongyang in violation of its commitments under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and to refer the issue to the U.N. Security Council. U.S. officials said they would ask for a resolution condemning North Korea’s actions, but they said they would not ask for sanctions or penalties (see GSN, Jan. 30; Sanger/Shanker, New York Times).
“When we get to the Security Council, we’ll see what we propose there,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher. “But we have not talked about sanctions at this point,” he added.
“I’ve exhausted all possibilities within my power to bring North Korea into compliance,” said IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei (Sands, Washington Times).
Moscow today said bringing the issue to the Security Council would not help solve the nuclear crisis.
“As before, we still believe that the possibility for diplomatic dialogue between the interested sides is not exhausted,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko. “In this connection, submitting the question about North Korea to the U.N. Security Council now would be counterproductive,” he added (Paul Shin, Associated Press/KATU.com, Feb. 4).
By Jay Newton-Small
Global Security Newswire
Under two U.S. Air Force contracts awarded Wednesday, Orbital Sciences Corp. will convert retired U.S. ICBMs into as many as 41 space launch vehicles and missile defense targets, according to an Orbital release (see GSN, Nov. 7, 2002).
The 10-year contracts, worth up to $475 million, call for combining existing commercial technology with rocket motors from retired U.S. Peacekeeper and Minuteman long-range missiles. The Air Force has been retiring Minuteman ICBMs for many years and began dismantling Peacekeepers, also known as MX missiles, last year (see GSN, Oct. 4, 2002).
The two contracts fall under the Pentagon’s Orbital/Suborbital Program, with one $238 million contract devoted to Peacekeepers and the other, also $238 million, to Minuteman missiles. The contracts extend the Pentagon program that began in 1997 and produced nine missile defense targets and five space-launch vehicles from retired ICBMs.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday he plans to urge Iran to sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA Safeguards Agreement during a visit scheduled for later this month (see GSN, Jan. 15).
“I would like to discuss with Iranian officials the possibility of Iran joining the Additional Protocol,” Mohamed ElBaradei said in an interview with Reuters. “That I think would clearly create additional assurance with regard to the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program,” he added.
The Additional Protocol gives the IAEA the authority to conduct more intrusive inspections of a country’s nuclear program. The United States is concerned that three nuclear sites currently under construction in Iran, including the Bushehr nuclear reactor being built by Russia, could be used for a weapons program (see GSN, Dec. 19, 2002).
Iran has assured the IAEA that the facilities are only for peaceful uses, ElBaradei said, adding that he would visit the sites during his visit. He also praised Russia’s intention to recover the spent fuel from the Bushehr reactor, saying it would reduce proliferation concerns (see GSN, Dec. 31, 2002).
“(Bushehr) is under IAEA safeguards and Russia is going to take back the spent fuel. So the question of proliferation per se out of Bushehr should not arise,” ElBaradei said (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Feb. 4).
A review by the Energy Department’s inspector general has concluded that senior officials at Los Alamos National Laboratory “obscured serious property management and security problems” during an investigation of fraud and theft at the nuclear weapons research facility in New Mexico, Energy Daily reported Friday (see GSN, Jan. 21).
The report said laboratory management discouraged staff members from discussing or revealing the alleged improprieties.
Inspector General Gregory Friedman also said there was no clear reason why the laboratory had fired two former law enforcement officials who had been brought in to investigate missing money.
The dismissal of Glenn Walp and Steven Doran was “incomprehensible,” according to the report.
“These events raise doubt about Los Alamos’ commitment to solving noted problems, had the potential to have a chilling effect on employees who may have been willing to speak out on matters of concern, and were inconsistent with laboratory and University of California obligations under its contract with the Department of Energy,” the report said.
The report did not support allegations, however, that “laboratory management deliberately hid criminal activity” (George Lobsenz, Energy Daily, Jan. 31).
Laboratory staff members were responsible for at least $1.5 million in missing or stolen government property and management reportedly told employees to “resist the temptation to spill your guts” about the situation, the Los Angeles Times reported (Vartabedian/Trounson, Los Angeles Times, Jan. 31).
The report also said officials were poor property managers, charging the Los Alamos leadership with a “substantial degree of dysfunction” in this area, the University of California’s Daily Californian reported.
Los Alamos’ equipment was delivered to “open spaces with little or no security,” according to the report (Kin-Mai Cutler, Daily Californian, Feb. 3).
Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham will most likely decide by April whether the University of California will continue to operate the national laboratory system, the Times reported (Vartabedian/Trounson, Los Angeles Times).
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Masami Tsuchiya, a former member of the Aum Shinrikyo cult, pleaded not guilty yesterday to charges of murder and attempted murder stemming from a 1995 sarin attack on the Tokyo subway that killed 12, according to the Japan Times (see GSN, Jan. 30).
Japanese prosecutors allege Tsuchiya was one of the main figures in Aum Shinrikyo’s production of sarin and other nerve agents and that he participated in the attack. Tsuchiya has admitted to developing the nerve agents, but said he was not involved in their use and doubted that he produced the sarin used in the subway incident, according to the Times. Tsuchiya’s entered his plea yesterday after refusing to do so since his trial began eight years ago (Japan Times, Feb. 4).
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By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON ð— The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is forecasting no significant overall budget growth for its research, development, test and evaluation programs over the next six years, following a requested increase of $1 billion for next year, according to an agency budget document released Monday.
The agency expects to spend between $7.7 billion in fiscal 2004 and $8.7 billion in 2009 on research, development and testing of its systems, according to the budget documents. It says it budgeted $6.7 billion research, development, test and evaluation in fiscal 2003.
A senior Pentagon official said Friday the military was planning to spend more on missile defense this year than last because of an increase in development and testing of systems.
“Why are we spending more? Well we’ve moved, as I’ve told a number of you, from the research side to the development side in a much bigger way. Once the ABM [Anti-Ballistic Missile] Treaty went away we could start doing more than just speculating about sea-based capabilities, for example,” the official said.
With the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty last June, the Pentagon was able to incorporate Navy sensors into its high-profile, long-range intercept testing.
Also contained in the 2004 budget, according to Pentagon officials, is increased funding for purchasing a range of systems and upgrades to deploy an initial missile defense capability by the end of 2005. Pentagon officials estimate those purchases will add $1.5 billion to the missile defense budget over the next two years.
By the end of fiscal 2005, the agency plans to procure numerous systems for fielding an initial capability to defend the United States, including up to 20 ground-based missile interceptors, 20 sea-based interceptors deployed on three reconfigured ships, land- and sea-based radar and sensors, and 15 upgraded surveillance and tracking ships (see GSN, Dec. 17).
At Least $9 billion Requested
The agency’s budget projections do not account for future weapons purchases by the services, however, nor for funding requested by the Army and the Joint Chiefs of Staff for missile defense programs, which total nearly $1.4 billion for fiscal 2004.
Counting the requested Missile Defense Agency budget, and requests for Army and Joint Chiefs of Staff programs, the Bush administration is asking for an estimated $9.1 billion for fiscal 2004, making it the Pentagon’s largest budgeted weapons program.
Defense budget analyst Christopher Hellman, of the Center for Defense Information, said that Pentagon missile defense total should be closer to $10 billion, as it does not account for $713 million requested for the Air Force in 2004, which the Pentagon identifies as having a missile defense mission.
Missile defense critic John Isaacs, president of the Council for a Livable World, said he is skeptical the Pentagon’s forecast budgets will sufficiently fund the administration’s plans.
“They claim that these additional capabilities are not all that expensive, $1.5 billion over two years, so that’s why the budget does not go shooting up,” he said.
“If I were the conservatives and looked at this budget over five years or six years, and looked at this deployment in Alaska and California, I’d say, ‘is that all there is?’ From the left, you’d say, ‘is this the camel’s nose under the tent?’” he said.
Baker Spring, a Heritage Foundation missile defense proponent, says the $1.5 billion should be sufficient.
“This is an incremental cost, it’s not coming from zero. [It is] coming from a baseline that was already $8 billion,” he said.
“There has been a train now for over a year planning for a Pacific base and test bed. It’s that increment that takes you from the test bed to that operational capability that you really need to account for here,” he said.
Congress, in the past two years, has appropriated more than $1 billion each year for missile defense above the agency’s request.
Questions About the Budget
The total Pentagon missile defense budget request only recently climbed to its currently stated $9.1 billion level. The Pentagon requested $3.5 billion in fiscal 1998, $4.7 billion in 2001, and $8.3 billion in 2002.
Those increases began during the Clinton administration. The Bush administration is now pursuing more aggressively a broader range of interceptor systems and sensors and a complex integrated command and control system for identifying, tracking and destroying ballistic missile threats in various stages of flight.
Representative John Spratt (S.C.), the House Budget Committee ranking Democrat, recently argued that the administration’s funding level is too high.
“The problem with this emphasis on missile defense is that it draws both funding and attention away from nonproliferation efforts, which have an enormous potential,” he said at an Arms Control Association event last month.
“While the defense budget has grown substantially over the last three years, funding for nonproliferation essentially stands where it stood in President [Bill] Clinton’s last budget,” he said.
The Bush administration did request significant increases for nonproliferation budgets this year, an 8 percent increase for the Pentagon’s Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, a 30 percent increase for the Energy Department’s nonproliferation programs, and a 17 percent decrease for the State Department’s smaller nonproliferation budget, resulting largely from cancelled nuclear aid for North Korea (see GSN, Jan. 30).
The United States and Israel carried out joint a Patriot missile preparedness exercise in Southern Negev, Ha’aretz newspaper said today (see GSN, Jan. 21).
As many as 14 Patriot missiles were fired Tuesday to test Israel’s defenses against incoming ballistic missiles. Residents in the area reported hearing loud explosions, Ha’aretz said, citing army radio.
The Israeli army said the test was part of joint U.S. and Israeli exercises which had been planned two years ago. About 200 soldiers have been in Israel as part of these joint operations code named “Juniper Cobra,” a biennial event that has been altered this year to focus on the current crisis in Iraq, according to Ha’aretz.
During the Gulf War Iraq fired 39 Scud missiles at Israel, although they all hit relatively rural targets and caused little damage. Israeli officials fear if there is another war, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein may try to attack Israel again (Ha’aretz, Feb. 4).
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U.S. President George W. Bush has requested more than $115 million for bioterrorism-related food safety programs in his fiscal 2004 budget, Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson announced today (see GSN, Feb. 3).
The $116.8 million request is an increase of almost 20 percent from fiscal 2003 funding levels of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s bioterrorism food initiatives, according to a Health and Human Ser | |
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