International Response:  Singapore Launches Container Security Initiative

Singapore began screening ships bound for the United States yesterday, as part of the Container Security Initiative signed last year (see GSN, Jan. 13).

“CSI is a sophisticated security program of mutual benefit to the U.S. and Singapore,” U.S. Ambassador Frank Levin said.

“Singapore’s participation in the CSI program is a major step forward in our joint efforts to prevent trade from being exploited by terrorists,” he added.

Last year, 330,000 containers were shipped from Singapore to the United States.  Levin said that Singapore is in the “top tier” of countries working to prevent maritime terrorism (Singapore Straits Times, March 17).

Back to top

Iraq I:  U.S., U.K. End Diplomatic Efforts to Disarm Iraq

The United States, the United Kingdom and Spain announced today that they would not submit their draft resolution on Iraq for a vote in the U.N. Security Council, and the United Nations plans to withdraw all of its staff from Iraq beginning tomorrow, according to reports (see GSN, March 14).

France’s persistent threat to veto the resolution led to decision to hold no vote, British U.N. Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock said.

“We have had to conclude that council consensus will not be possible,” he said.

John Negroponte, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said he believed a council vote on the resolution would have been “close.”

Soon after Negroponte and Greenstock spoke, French U.N. Ambassador Jean-Marc de La Sabliere said that during individual consultations with council members during the previous several hours, “the majority of the council confirmed they do not want a use of force” (Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 17).

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said today U.S. President George W. Bush would speak tonight to demand that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, certain family members, and other senior Iraqi government officials leave Iraq or face a U.S.-led war.

Powell said Bush will issue “an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein, that the only way to avoid the serious consequences that were built into Security Council 1441 is for Saddam Hussein and his immediate cohorts to leave the country and for this matter to be resolved through the peaceful entry of force and not conflict,” he said.

Powell said the United States believes it does not need a new resolution to conduct a war on Iraq, saying that Security Council Resolution 1441, which threatened “serious consequences” if Iraq did not give up suspected weapons of mass destruction, provides sufficient authority.

“We believe, and I think that you’ve also heard an opinion from British legal authorities within the last 24 hours that there is a sufficient authority in 1441, 678, and 687, earlier resolutions, for whatever military action might be required,” he said.

“We believe that our actions now are supported by international law, whatever actions we might take in the future, and the president will talk to this issue tonight,” Powell said.

“The resolution that we are not taking to a vote today is a resolution that we do not believe is necessary,” Powell said (David Ruppe, Global Security Newswire, March 17).

“Moment of Truth”

Today’s developments followed yesterday’s meeting of U.S., British, Spanish and Portuguese leaders in the Azores, where Bush said that today would be a “moment of truth” for the world to support the disarmament of Iraq.

“Many nations have voiced a commitment to peace and security,” Bush said, following the meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Spanish President Jose Maria Aznar and Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Manuel Durao Barroso.  “And now they must demonstrate that commitment to peace and security in the only effective way, by supporting the immediate and unconditional disarmament of Saddam Hussein,” Bush said.

Blair echoed the belief that time had run out for continued discussions concerning a new resolution on Iraq.

“The truth is that without a credible ultimatum authorizing force in the event of noncompliance, then more discussion is just more delay, with Saddam remaining armed with weapons of mass destruction and continuing a brutal, murderous regime in Iraq,” Blair said.

In his remarks, Bush outlined his vision for a post-Hussein Iraq, which included a “swift close” to the current sanctions imposed on the country.

“Iraq’s liberation would be the beginning, not the end, of our commitment to its people,” Bush said.  “We will supply humanitarian relief, bring economic sanctions to a swift close, and work for the long-term recovery of Iraq’s economy.  We’ll make sure that Iraq’s natural resources are used for the benefit of their owners, the Iraqi people,” he added.

The United States will not be alone in rebuilding Iraq, Bush said.  “We’ll quickly seek new Security Council resolutions to encourage broad participation in the process of helping the Iraqi people to build a free Iraq,” he said (White House release, March 16).

Inspectors to Leave

Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan reported to the Security Council today that he has ordered all U.N. personnel to leave Iraq, following a U.S. recommendation (CNN, March 17).

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said today that he had received the suggestion from U.S. officials yesterday.

“Late last night … I was advised by the United States government to pull out our inspectors from Baghdad.  Similar advice has been given to the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC),” ElBaradei said in a statement.  “Naturally, the safety of our staff remains our primary consideration at this difficult time.  I earnestly hope — even at this late hour — that a peaceful resolution of the issue can be achieved, and that the world can be spared a war,” he said (Associated Press II/Yahoo.com, March 17).

U.N. inspectors are expected to begin pulling out, via air, tomorrow, according to CNN.  The process is expected to take one day (CNN, March 17).

The United Nations has about 135 staff inside Iraq, including 56 inspectors (CNN II, March 17).  Even before returning to Iraq, they developed contingency plans in the event of the need to evacuate, according to the Associated Press.

“A lot depends on the Iraqis,” a senior U.N. inspector said.  “If they let us use aircraft to get out, we could be gone in 48 hours or even less.  If they won’t let us fly out, we would have to drive to a border, and that could mean an eight-hour journey across hot desert.  It would take longer, but we would get out,” the inspector said (Hamza Hendawi, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 17).

Already, five of the U.N.’s eight U.S.-supplied helicopters in Iraq have departed after their insurer canceled coverage, apparently because of the imminent conflict, according to the London Times.  Three Russian Mi-8 helicopters still remain for use in any future inspections, according to the Iraqi National Monitoring Directorate, the country’s liaison with the inspectors (James Bone, London Times, March 17).

The U.N. observers stationed in the demilitarized zone between Iraq and Kuwait have ceased all operations and have begun to withdraw, according to CNN.com.

Staff from the U.N. Iraq-Kuwait Observer Mission began leaving their posts on both sides of the border today.  The withdrawal is expected to continue throughout today, mission spokesman Daljeet Bagga said (CNN.com, March 17).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

IAEA Iraq Action Team

U.N. Resolution 1441

Back to top

Iraq II:  Critics Say U.S Mistakes Led to Diplomacy Failure

Since President George W. Bush took office, his administration is seen as having made a series of diplomatic mistakes that have made a war in Iraq backed by only a few allies all but inevitable, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see related GSN story, today).

The seeds of the U.S. inability to reach a diplomatic solution to the Iraq crisis can be traced back almost to the day Bush took office, according to diplomats, analysts and some administration officials.  They highlighted Bush’s belief in the supremacy of U.S. power and his administration’s skepticism about international agreements and organizations as major causes.

Problems worsened, however, after a number of mistakes the White House made once it decided to seek U.N. approval for its position on Iraq, such as the poor diplomatic campaign the administration conducted, the officials said.  One of the biggest mistakes was the Bush administration’s apparent position that it would not be swayed from what many countries saw as a preset timetable for war, according to some U.N. Security Council members.

“Could we have done the diplomacy better?  Absolutely,” an administration official said.  “We were perceived as heavy-handed,” the official said (Kessler/Allen, Washington Post, March 16).

One of the hardest diplomatic battles the United States fought in its attempt to gain Security Council approval for military action was with its own ally France, another permanent council member and a staunch opponent of military action, according to the New York Times. 

Early in the crisis, France pushed for the Security Council to approve a proposal involving two resolutions — one calling on Iraq to disarm and a second that would authorize military action if Iraq failed to do so.  Many U.S. officials have now said, however, that France never intended to support military action.  For their part, French officials have said that the United States never intended to pursue a peaceful solution.

In the fall of last year, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell was able to persuade Bush to support the French two-resolution proposal.  While many senior administration officials were skeptical, Powell attempted to convince them that once the process had been completed, France would see that inspections had failed and would then choose to support war, Bush administration officials said.

“Condi was the tipping factor," said an administration official, referring to national security adviser Condoleezza Rice.  “Powell convinced her that the French would be with us.  It was wrong then, and it is wrong today,” the official added.

The apparent U.S.-French agreement on how to handle the Iraq situation started to fall apart in December of last year and ultimately collapsed by the end of January, according to U.S., French and U.N. diplomats.

One blow was when U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix began circulating among council members in mid-January a timetable for inspections, French officials said.  Blix proposed a timetable used by inspectors during the 1990s that established a step-by-step process that included the introduction of inspectors, establishing their infrastructure and a number of disarmament tasks that Iraq would need to complete, according to the Times.  These tasks were set to be listed on March 27.

The United States, however, objected to Blix’s timetable, the Times reported.  Senior U.S. officials, including John Negroponte, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said the March 27 date was too long a delay.

“That was the moment of truth, when we suddenly realized we were going to war,” said a French official.

Another telling blow was dealt on Jan. 20, when Powell attended a Security Council session on terrorism headed by French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, the Times reported.  After the meeting, de Villepin held a press conference where he said that “Nothing! Nothing!” would justify war with Iraq.  U.S. officials did not learn about the press conference, however, until the next day.

“We looked at each other and said, ‘What the hell is going on here?’” said an aide to Powell.  “I think it all started to come apart after that moment,” the aide added (Steven Weisman, New York Times, March 17).

The U.S. diplomatic campaign was also damaged by a number of disputed U.S. and British intelligence claims on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction efforts, according to analysts and some diplomats.

The biggest mistake was the U.S. claim, apparently supported by British intelligence, that Iraq had attempted to purchase uranium from Niger.  The documents that purported to show such an attempt were later discovered to be forgeries.  A number of other U.S. claims, however, have also come under criticism from U.N. officials and diplomats, including Iraq’s purchases of high-strength aluminum tubes for use in a nuclear weapons program and the development of mobile biological laboratories.

Now, some at the Security Council question any U.S. claim regarding Iraq, according to the Boston Globe.

“When you hear anything that Iraq is not cooperating, I suggest you double-check it,” said Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations.

The doubt over U.S. intelligence is one reason why a number of Security Council members have come out in favor of “benchmarks” through which Iraq can show its compliance with inspections, diplomats said.

U.S. officials, however, have defended U.S. claims that Iraq has continued with its WMD efforts, calling for doubters to look at the totality of the evidence.

“Those points individually, even if all true, fall far short of exonerating the Iraqi regime,” an official said, referring to the disputed claims.  “We have reams and reams of documents on unaccounted-for biological or chemical materials,” the official added (Donnelly/Neuffer, Boston Globe, March 16).

Even with all the missteps, the United States still might have been able to obtain enough support for a second resolution authorizing military action if it had had more patience and willingness to address the concerns of other Security Council members, according to the Washington Post.

“The bottom line is the U.S. will not move,” a Security Council diplomat said.  “Even the French might move if there was something to move to,” the diplomat added.

Former U.S. officials also disapproved of the Bush administration’s tactics.

“They’ve used unilateral tactics with a multilateral strategy,” said a former senior official in President George H.W. Bush’s administration.  “If your strategy is to go for U.N. support, you need to use U.N. tactics,” the former official added.

Yet another complication was that while the United States attempted a diplomatic campaign, it also began preparing for military action, which led many diplomats to believe the United States was only attempting diplomacy as a cover, the Post reported.  Many countries believe the United States sabotaged the inspections process by arguing that its military buildup in the Persian Gulf region had gone too far for war to be avoided, according to the Post.

“Back in August, wittingly or unwittingly, the president accepted two totally incompatible strategies,” Senator Joseph Biden (D-Del.) said (Kessler/Allen, Washington Post).

Back to top

U.S. Response:  Pentagon Certifies Kansas Civil Support Team

The U.S. Defense Department Friday said it has certified the Kansas WMD civil support team, bringing the number of certified teams to 32 (see GSN, March 7).  The teams, part of states’ National Guard units, are ready to respond in the event of a domestic incident involving weapons of mass destruction, the Pentagon said (see GSN, Feb. 8, 2002).  The Kansas WMD civil support team is one of five such teams authorized in the fiscal 2001 National Defense Appropriations Act (U.S. Defense Department release, March 14).

Back to top

Iraq III:  Summary of Inspections

Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27, 2002.  About 50 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul.  The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ recently reported activities.

 

Date	Site	Activity
March 15	Taji Technical Battalion	UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles and related equipment (U.N. release, March 15).
	Al-Qaid Warhead Filling Plant of the al-Qa Qaa State Company	UNMOVIC missile inspectors placed tags on five al-Fatah warheads (U.N. release, March 15).
	Daura Oil Refinery	UNMOVIC chemical experts worked to identify the changes made to the site over the last four years (U.N. release, March 15).
	Al-Rhashidyah Military Store	U.N. release, March 15.
	Site in the area of Jabal Hamryn, north of Baghdad
	Large underground facility
	Daura SEHEE
	Tho al-Fekar Plant
	Area northwest of Baghdad	IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (U.N. release, March 15).
March 14	Taji Technical Battalion	UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles and related warheads (U.N. release, March 14).
	Al-Muthanna	Inspectors destroyed chemical waste left over at the site (U.N. release, March 14).
	Site west of the northern city of Mosul	Inspectors inspected a destroyed ballistic missile launcher (U.N. release, March 14).
	Northeast Baghdad	IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (U.N. release, March 14).
March 13	Fasten Frozen Foods Co. Ltd.	U.N. release, March 13.
	State Company for Canned Foods
	Al-Taji	UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, March 13).
March 7-12	See GSN, March 13

Back to top

International Response:  Nonproliferation Regime is Under Fire, ElBaradei Says

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

Crises in Iraq and North Korea are contributing to a growing test of the international nuclear nonproliferation regime, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said in a statement today.

“The nuclear arms control regime is being challenged and is clearly under stress,” ElBaradei said in his statement to a regular meeting of the IAEA’s board of governors.

Michael Levi, a Federation of American Scientists nuclear expert, agreed with ElBaradei that the nuclear proliferation situation is dire.  He was pleased that the director general addressed Iran, Iraq and North Korea separately, “acknowledging that these do present real crises.”

“One would have to be naive or delusional to disagree with the director’s assessment there,” Levi said.

ElBaradei said the regime is also challenged by nations that have not made their nuclear safeguards agreements official as well as a lack of international endorsement for the agency’s additional protocols, which would allow enhanced IAEA verification and monitoring activities.

“As I have often stated, in states without safeguards agreements in force, the agency cannot provide any nonproliferation assurances,” ElBaradei said.

A failure to approve the Additional Protocol could result in a similar situation to pre-1991 Iraq, “when we failed to uncover Iraq’s clandestine nuclear program,” he added.

Despite the agency’s international lobbying, the number of safeguards agreements and additional protocols that have taken effect “continues to be well below expectations,” according to ElBaradei.

Forty-eight parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty have not brought the safeguard agreements into force and only 29 countries have enforced the Additional Protocol, according to the statement.  The treaty has more than 180 parties.

Iran

ElBaradei also briefed the board of governors on his recent trip to Iran, during which he inspected nuclear facilities.  He described a centrifuge pilot facility at Natanz as “nearly ready for operation” (see GSN, March 10).

A larger centrifuge facility is being developed at the same site, according to ElBaradei.

The United States has accused Iran of developing a secret nuclear weapons program under the guise of a civilian energy effort.  Iran says that it needs a nuclear energy program that will supply Tehran’s burgeoning population and will allow it to export more oil and gas.

ElBaradei said that he stressed to Iranian officials the importance of transparency in their nuclear efforts.

“I stressed the value of bringing an additional protocol into force as an important tool for enabling the agency to provide comprehensive assurances,” he said.

Tehran has previously rejected unannounced inspections, saying that it did not want to place further restrictions on its developing nuclear program.  During the most recent trip, however, Iran reportedly agreed to provide information on its nuclear facilities earlier in the development process.  In addition, Iranian officials will “actively” consider signing the Additional Protocol, ElBaradei said (see GSN, March 13).

Iraq

ElBaradei reiterated earlier assertions that U.N. inspectors have found no evidence “or plausible indication of the revival of a nuclear weapons program in Iraq” (see GSN, March 7).

“I should note that, in recent weeks, possibly as a result of increasing pressure by the international community, Iraq has been more forthcoming in its cooperation with the IAEA,” he said.

ElBaradei said that he still holds out hope for a peaceful resolution to the Iraq crisis, but Washington told him last night to withdraw his inspectors from Baghdad, according to the statement (see related GSN story, today).

Back to top

U.S.-Russia:  Duma Committee Recommends Moscow Treaty Ratification

The Russian State Duma’s defense committee recommended last week that the lower house of the Russian Parliament ratify the U.S-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty.  The Duma’s international affairs committee has recommended that a ratification vote be held next week (Associated Press/Moscow Times, March 17).

For further information, see:

U.S.-Russia Nuclear Reduction Treaty Text (U.S. State Department)

Bush Announces Moscow Treaty

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Moscow Treaty

Back to top

Iraq:  Baghdad Has Destroyed 68 Al-Samoud 2 Missiles; Recent Trade Reported

Iraq has so far destroyed at least 68 of its prohibited al-Samoud 2 missiles, according to Reuters (see GSN, March 13).  On Saturday, Iraq destroyed three of the missiles, along with a launcher and other related equipment (Samia Nakhoul, Reuters, March 15).  Iraq Friday destroyed four al-Samoud 2 missiles, seven warheads for the missiles and other related equipment (U.N. release, March 14).

Iraq Purchases Missile Fuel Chemical

In August Iraq purchased from a Chinese company a dual-use chemical used in producing missile fuel, with the aid of French and Syrian brokers, according to U.S. intelligence and defense officials.

The sale of the chemical, hydroxy terminated polybutadiene (HTPB), was traced last summer from China’s Qilu Chemicals company, U.S. officials said.  “Qilu Chemicals is the largest manufacturer of HTPB in China,” an official said.

The French company CIS Paris brokered the sale of 20 tons of HTPB to Iraq, according to the Washington Times.  The shipment was sent from China to the Syrian port of Tartus, where it was then sent via truck to an Iraqi missile production plant, according to U.S. officials.

France has denied aiding the HTPB sale.

“These accusations are devoid of all foundation,” French Foreign Ministry spokesman Francois Rivasseau said.  “They are a part of a polemic that we do not want to get involved in.  In line with the rules currently in force, France has neither delivered, nor authorized the delivery of such materials, either directly or indirectly,” he said (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, March 15).

Back to top

Taiwan:  Report Says Taipei Plans to Buy Patriot Missiles Quickly

A Taiwanese newspaper reported Friday that Taiwan is hastening the purchase of more than $3 billion in U.S. missile defense equipment, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, March 11).

The $3.16 billion deal would include two long-range radar systems, six Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missile systems, and upgrades for three PAC-2 missile systems, according to Taipei’s United Daily News.

The reported decision to speed the procurement took place as the U.S. Defense Department’s chief of Asia Pacific security affairs visited Taipei.  Mary Tighe is the highest-ranking U.S. military official to visit Taiwan since 1979, according to the United Daily News (Agence France-Presse, March 14).

Taiwanese defense officials, however, denied the report as speculative and said the military has a 10-year plan to acquire missile defense equipment.

“We have formulated a priority list and will carry out all procurement projects according to our own schedule.  There are no problems with any acceleration or postponement of arms procurement,” a statement from the Ministry of National Defense said (Taipei Times, March 15).

Back to top

Radiological Weapons:  U.S. Experts Conduct “Dirty Bomb” Tests

For the past six months, U.S. experts have conducted tests on the basic designs of “dirty bombs” in an attempt to learn more about how they work, according to a U.S. official, the Associated Press reported Friday (see GSN, March 14).

Experts at the Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico have been conducting tests using simulated radioactive materials to determine the influence of blast and wind factors on the spread of radiation following the detonation of a dirty bomb, which combines radioactive materials and conventional explosives, the official said.  Researchers have determined that cesium chlorine powder, used in food irradiators and some older medical devices, is one of the best materials for such a weapon, according to AP.

“It’s very radioactive, and the powder disperses well, the official said.

The tests are set to increase to the level of radiothermal generators (RTGs) — devices developed by the United States and the Soviet Union as power sources for remotely installed equipment, the official said.  Such devices often contain 40,000 curies worth of radioactive materials, such as strontium.  About 1,000 curies worth of such material is needed to make an effective dirty bomb, according to experts.

“A Russian admiral told us there have been many attempted thefts of RTGs reported,” the U.S. official said, adding that none of the attempted thefts were reported to be successful (Charles Hanley, Associated Press/Rocky Mountain News, March 14).

Back to top