U.S. intelligence information indicates Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has authorized his military commanders to use chemical weapons in a war with the United States without any further orders from Baghdad, Defense Department officials said yesterday (see GSN, March 18).
“We continue to receive reports supporting the assertion that there is a high risk the Iraqi regime would use chemical weapons at some point during any conflict,” Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said.
Iraq’s chemical weapons are believed to be mainly in the hands of the elite Republican Guard, deployed mostly in and around Baghdad, U.S. officials said. Iraqi chemical munitions are believed to have been loaded onto artillery shells and rockets with a range of about 12 miles, they said.
It is unknown which Iraqi commanders had been authorized to use chemical weapons, Pentagon officials said. It is unlikely that the authorization extended to company-level commanders, they said, adding Iraq was likely to use chemical weapons to cover a retreat or to crush internal revolt (Matt Kelley, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 19).
Defense Intelligence Agency Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby said he believes Hussein will order use of chemical or biological weapons against U.S. troops.
“This person has used (chemical weapons) on his own population, has used it previously, he’s crossed that inhibition line,” Jacoby said in an interview with the Washington Post. “The question we’re normally asked is, ‘Well, when might he employ?’ And our assessment is, when he believes the regime is going down,” he added (Loeb/Weisman, Washington Post, March 19).
If Iraqi forces were to use chemical weapons against U.S. troops, it will be met with a “dramatic” response, said U.S. Army Lt. Gen. David McKiernan, commander of U.S. forces in Kuwait.
“It would be a hugely bad choice on the part of any Iraqi leader or commander to employ chemical weapons,” McKiernan said (Patrick McDowell, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 19).
U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix said yesterday that he doubted Iraq would use chemical or biological weapons for fear of changing international opinion to favor the United States.
“There’s a fair amount of skepticism about the armed action, and it’s clear now that skepticism will turn immediately around if they use chemical and biological weapons,” Blix said (Elizabeth Neuffer, Boston Globe, March 19).
“I doubt that they will have the will,” Blix said. There are “some people who care about their reputation even after death,” he added.
Blix also said that it “was not reasonable” for the United States to bring the U.N. inspections process in Iraq to an end when Baghdad was providing more cooperation than it had in more than 10 years.
“I don’t think it is reasonable to close the door on inspections after 3 1/2 months,” Blix said. “I would have welcomed some more time,” he added (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, March 19).
United States Preparing for WMD Search
The United States has deployed a number of mobile laboratories and specialized teams of intelligence officials and disarmament specialists in Kuwait to aid in the search for Iraq weapons of mass destruction once war begins, according to senior Bush administration officials.
The Pentagon has deployed several new units called mobile exploitation teams, which would be responsible for locating and surveying between 130 and 1,400 suspected WMD sites, according to the New York Times. The Pentagon also plans to locate and interview Iraqi WMD scientists and technicians to obtain their help in disarming Iraq, officials said.
Over the last two weeks, the Pentagon has also made contact with a number of former U.N. weapons inspectors who worked for the U.N. Special Commission on Iraq, which conducted inspections in Iraq from 1991 to 1998. U.S. officials have asked the former inspectors to join the military teams to aid them in finding hidden WMD storage sites, collect documents, and interview scientists.
The Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which will oversee the WMD search, has printed about 9,000 booklets to help U.S. troops identify and handle suspect facilities and materials, the Times reported.
The United States faces a challenging task in trying to locate all of Iraq’s possible hidden WMD stockpiles because Hussein has had more than a decade to develop ways of hiding them, said Maj. Gen. James Marks, a senior Army intelligence official (Judith Miller, New York Times, March 19).
The Risks of Finding None
The search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction could have major ramifications for the Bush administration if no such weapons are discovered, especially if Iraq does not reveal their existence by using them against U.S. forces, said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.
“If Iraq doesn’t use chemical or biological weapons, and an investigation of the Iraqi program reveals just a small amount, we will clearly have egg on our face, and it could undermine the Bush administration’s justification for going to war,” Albright said.
A senior U.S. State Department official yesterday dismissed the idea that Iraq might be found to possess no weapons of mass destruction.
“We think we will find it,” the official said. “We know they have it, and dealing with a hypothetical is not something we spend a lot of time wringing our hands about,” the official added (Mark Matthews, Baltimore Sun, March 19).
French Aid
Although France has been a staunch opponent of military action against Iraq, French troops could help U.S.-led action if Iraq were to use chemical or biological weapons, French U.S. Ambassador Jean-David Levitte said yesterday.
“If the war starts and if (President) Saddam Hussein uses chemical or biological weapons, it would change completely the situation for the French president and for the French government, and President (Jacques) Chirac will have to decide what we will do to help the American troops to confront this new situation, Levitte told CNN. “But I confirm it would change completely the perception and the situation for us,” he added (CNN.com, March 18).
The United States announced yesterday that 30 countries have publicly vowed to support an invasion of Iraq and another 15 endorse the effort but did not want to be identified.
The coalition, however, is needed more for political gain and reconstruction efforts than military advantage, U.S. officials said.
“The problem is there’s not many countries that can keep up with us” on the battlefield, a senior U.S. Defense Department official said.
After the fighting is over, however, a broad coalition will be needed, according to Owen Cote of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
“We’re embracing what could become an unbelievable sinkhole as far as resources are concerned and an unbelievable political cancer if we have to bear it alone. Having other countries involved helps us defer costs. It helps us with legitimacy in the eyes of the other countries in the region,” Cote said.
“The overwhelming amount of combat will be provided by a relatively small number of countries, and that is sufficient to accomplish the mission,” White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said (Robert Schlesinger, Boston Globe, March 19).
Experts said Washington was loosely defining the word coalition.
“If they allow overflight or allow forces to be staged from their countries, they are considered part of the coalition,” said Patrick Garrett, of GlobalSecurity.org (Guynn/Infield, Miami Herald, March 18).
Notably absent from the coalition partners — which include Albania and Eritrea — were Iraq’s Arab neighbors, the Boston Globe reported (Schlesinger, Boston Globe).
Iraq Calls For Bush to Step Down
Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri said U.S. President George W. Bush should step down and avoid war.
“Bush should go away from the presidency and let the Americans lead an ordinary life with other nations, not a life of aggression,” Sabri said. “This policy has brought about disasters to the U.S., so for the U.S. to live properly with the world and for the world nations to live in peace, this crazy man should go,” he added.
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein said that his soldiers were prepared to die in a U.S. attack.
“Ten Americas would not displace the people of Iraq away from its land, freedom and independence,” he said (Paul McGeough, Sydney Morning Herald, March 19).
“Iraq doesn’t choose its path through foreigners and doesn’t choose its leaders by decree from Washington, London or Tel Aviv,” an Iraqi government statement said.
Iraq is reportedly reinforcing military units along its northern border, the Chicago Tribune reported.
U.S. satellites also detected an oil slick in Iraq’s southern oil fields and experts were trying to determine whether it was the result of an accident or sabotage to slow advancing soldiers (Kemper/Salopek, Chicago Tribune, March 19).
Iraq’s Parliament supported Hussein today and vowed to fight to the “last drop of blood.”
“We hear these hollow words by the American administration regarding Iraq and its leader,” said a member of Parliament. “The world has rejected this idiotic policy. But for Bush and his cronies, we say that there is no difference between Saddam Hussein and Iraq, and the people of Iraq will defend their country and their leader. And we advise Bush to stay away from Iraq if he wants to save his skin,” the member added.
U.S. defense officials, meanwhile, told Bush that they were prepared to attack, CNN.com reported (CNN.com, March 19).
U.S. and British troops broke camp and massed at Iraq’s southern border, the Associated Press reported (David Crary, Associated Press/Austin American Statesman, March 19).
U.S.-led forces entered the demilitarized zone on the Iraq-Kuwait border this morning, according to a Kuwaiti official.
“Troops walked into the DMZ this morning at around 11 a.m.,” said the official.
A British military official said that soldiers had taken “forward battle positions” (Samia Nakhoul, Reuters, March 19).
Some U.S. lawmakers made last-ditch efforts to avert war.
“We are making one last plea not only on behalf of ourselves but on behalf of millions of people throughout our country, millions of people throughout the world,” said Representative Barbara Lee (D-Calif).
The chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, Representative Elijah Cummings (D-Md.), said black lawmakers had attempted to meet with Bush but were refused (Crary, Associated Press).
British Prime Minister Tony Blair won support from the House of Commons to use “all means necessary” to disarm Iraq in a 412-149 vote.
“If this House now demands that, at this moment, faced with this threat from this regime, that British troops are pulled back, that we turn away at the point of reckoning, what then what will Saddam feel? Strengthened beyond measure,” Blair said.
Blair survived the defection of 139 members of his own Labor Party who voted for an antiwar amendment (Beth Carney, Boston Globe, March 19).
He also endured the resignation of Robin Cook, the leader of the House of Commons. Cook criticized the move toward war in his resignation speech.
“Iraq probably has no weapons of mass destruction in the commonly understood sense of the term, a credible device capable of being delivered against a strategic city target. It probably does still have biological toxins and battlefield chemical munitions, but it has had them since the 1980s, when U.S. companies sold Saddam anthrax agents,” Cook said, “and the then-British government approved chemical and munitions factories. Why is it now so urgent that we should take military action to disarm a military capacity that has been there for 20 years and which we helped to create?” he added (Federal News Service transcript, March 17).
The final U.N. employees to be evacuated from Iraq arrived in Cyprus, according to a U.N. official.
“This is the last flight out of Baghdad. There are no international U.N. staff left there,” said Hiro Ueki, spokesman for the arms inspectors. “There were 113 on this last flight,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, March 19).
Several inspectors were upset that the inspections had ended.
“I feel personally that if we had one more month it would have been enough,” German inspector Bernd Birkicht said. “Our goal was to find something or to prove there was nothing. Our mission has not ended,” he said.
“The Iraqis we left back there are very sad. They know bad things are going to happen to them,” said an inspector from an Asian country (Reuters/Jordan Times, March 19).
Blix Presents New Program of Work to Security Council
Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix presented to the Security Council this morning a proposed new program of work for disarming Iraq even as he reported that all inspectors are now out of the country ahead of an apparently certain U.S.-led attack.
“I naturally feel sadness that 3 1/2 months of work carried out in Iraq have not brought the assurances needed about the absence of weapons of mass destruction ... in Iraq, that no more time is available for our inspections and that armed action now seems imminent,” he said.
Organized under 12 headings, Blix’s proposed program of work would require Iraq to “present any remaining quantities” of anthrax, botulinum toxin, mustard gas, VX, sarin, binary agents or provide “credible evidence” that these agents have spoiled or been destroyed. Iraq would also be required to “present any remaining chemical and/or biological munitions, including aerial bombs, rockets or missile warheads, artillery shells, cluster munitions and fragmentation rounds.”
Presenting his report under the mandate of Resolution 1284, which established the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, Blix said it would be possible for the council “to single out a few issues for resolution within a specific time.”
The two council members most vocal in their opposition to the use of force — France and Germany — began the debate.
“For France, war can only be the exception, and collective responsibility the rule,” said French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin. “Whatever our aversion for Saddam Hussein’s cruel regime, that holds true for Iraq and for all the crises that we will have to confront together.”
“The path we mapped out together in the context of Resolution 1441 still exists,” he continued. “In spite of the fact that it has been interrupted today, we know that it will have to resume as soon as possible. ... To those who choose to use force and think they can resolve the world’s complexity through swift and preventive action, we offer in contrast determined action over time.”
German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said the Blix program was a “realistic description of the unresolved disarmament issues. ... Peaceful means have therefore not been exhausted. For that reason, Germany emphatically rejects the impending war.” He added, “Iraq’s readiness to cooperate was ... hesitant and slow. The council agrees on that. But can this seriously be regarded as grounds for war, with all its terrible consequences?”
Six foreign ministers were attending the meeting. The United States and the United Kingdom were represented by their U.N. ambassadors.
Blix Describes “Sad Moment,” Says Inspectors Could Have Other U.N. Role
At a press conference yesterday at U.N. headquarters, Blix said this is “a rather sad moment” and that he still sees a role for UNMOVIC after the war ends.
When Resolution 1441 was adopted, he said, he believed council members “were all genuine. They thought [disarmament] might be possible … but then some of them had given up patience a little earlier than others had done, and I think that’s a pity.”
At the beginning, Blix said, “There was no lack of good faith” on the part of the United States. It was “a wholehearted attitude at that time,” he said, “but clearly, there have been many in the administration who all the way through had been very skeptical and might not have abandoned their skepticism.”
Regarding a role for the inspectors if the United States attacks, Blix said, “We have no indication from the U.S. side that they would be interested in having any assistance from the U.N. in examining what they may find” in terms of weapons of mass destruction. “We are very interested to see what comes out” when Iraqis are free to speak and troops can “examine intelligence we have not had access to,” he said.
Blix said anthrax is “the one area we are most skeptical about the Iraqi declaration.”
“We felt there were fairly strong indications that they had more anthrax in 1991 [when the first Gulf War ended] than they declared and that the anthrax could have remained in containers,” Blix said. While it is “not likely to be viable ... the remnants of it ought to be somewhere and be declared,” he added.
In the last few days, Blix said, Iraqi officials have been “almost frantic in what they are doing, so I would describe it as very proactive. ... The eagerness with which they go at this does not necessarily prove there couldn’t be something else.”
Blix said UNMOVIC inspectors could still be used by the international community, either soon or at some future time. UNMOVIC has “competence” in many areas of weaponry, Blix said. “If the Security Council would want to have a sort of standby institution that would be capable of carrying out inspections” on missiles or biological weapons, “here is an embryo for it.” He added, “This is speculation, and it would certainly be after my time.” Blix’s contract with the United Nations ends in June (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, March 19).
Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq after resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27, 2002. Faced with an apparently imminent U.S. attack on Iraq, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan ordered the inspectors to withdraw from country March 18. The following chart summarizes the inspectors’ reported activities.
| Date | Site | Activity | | March 17 | Al-Taji | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles and related equipment (see GSN, March 18). | | Tikrit Dairy Factory | See GSN, March 18. | | Al-Sina Center | | March 16 | Al-Taji | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles and related equipment (U.N. release, March 16). | | Al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range | UNMOVIC biological inspectors supervised the excavation of R-400 bombs (U.N. release, March 16). | | Al-Rashidiyah military stores | U.N. release, March 16. | | Technical Institute of Kerbala | | Kerbala Health Centre Respiratory and Chest Diseases Consultation Clinic | | Al-Habbaniyah and al-Fallujah Missile Facility | | March 15 | Taji Technical Battalion | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles and related equipment (U.N. release, March 15). | | Al-Qaid Warhead Filling Plant of the al-Qa Qaa State Company | UNMOVIC missile inspectors placed tags on five al-Fatah warheads (U.N. release, March 15). | | Daura Oil Refinery | UNMOVIC chemical experts worked to identify the changes made to the site over the last four years (U.N. release, March 15). | | Al-Rhashidyah Military Store | U.N. release, March 15. | | Site in the area of Jabal Hamryn, north of Baghdad | | Large underground facility | | Daura SEHEE | | Tho al-Fekar Plant | | Area northwest of Baghdad | IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (U.N. release, March 15). | | March 14 | Taji Technical Battalion | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles and related warheads (U.N. release, March 14). | | Al-Muthanna | Inspectors destroyed chemical waste left over at the site (U.N. release, March 14). | | Site west of the northern city of Mosul | Inspectors inspected a destroyed ballistic missile launcher (U.N. release, March 14). | | Northeast Baghdad | IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (U.N. release, March 14). | | March 13 | Fasten Frozen Foods Co. Ltd. | U.N. release, March 13. | | State Company for Canned Foods | | Al-Taji | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, March 13). | | March 12 | Al-Baghdadyia Co. for Juice Industry | See GSN, March 13. | | Iraqi Dairy and Ice Cold Products Company | | That al-Suwavi Co. | | Saddam Center for Cancer and Medical Genetics Research | IAEA inspectors visited the sites in connection with their use of radioisotopes (see GSN, March 13). | | Saddam Neurosciences Center in Baghdad | | Al-Taji | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, March 12). | | March 11 | Taji Technical Battalion | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, March 12). | | Waziriyah plant | UNMOVIC missile inspectors inventoried destroyed al-Samoud 2 missile components (see GSN, March 12). | | Kerbala for Canning Foods Co. Ltd in Kerbala | See GSN, March 12. | | State Company for Battery Manufacturing-owned factory in Baghdad | | Second State Company for Battery Manufacturing-owned factory in Baghdad | | State Company for Battery Manufacturing plant west of Baghdad | | Mosul branch of the Mesopotamia Seed Company | | Ur General Establishment, near Nasiriyah | | March 10 | Nehrawan branch of the Mesopotamia State Company for Seed Handling | See GSN, March 11. | | State Establishment for Mechanical Industries in Iskandariyah | | Hiteen State Company | | Al-Tuwaitha | IAEA inspectors reviewed the status of radioactive waste stored at the site and conducted a radiation survey (see GSN, March 11). | | Al-Taji | Inspectors observed the destruction of prohibited al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, March 10). | | Al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range | Inspectors searched for additional R-400 bombs (see GSN, March 10). | | Nahrawan leather-dyeing factory | See GSN, March 10. | | March 9 | Arabic Gulf Company in Mosul | IAEA release, March 11. | | Al-Taji | Inspectors observed the destruction of prohibited al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, March 10). | | Al-Qa Qaa storage site | Inspectors verified the tagging of al-Samoud 2 warheads and inspected the facility’s solid propellant production plant (see GSN, March 10). | | Al-Fatah Factory of the Karama State Company | Inspectors destroyed mechanical parts of guidance and control assemblies for al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, March 10). | | Al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range | UNMOVIC biological experts supervised the transfer of excavated R-400 bombs to a more secure section of the site (see GSN, March 10). | | Tadmur Company for Tanning and Leather Industry | See GSN, March 10. | | Undisclosed areas northwest of the northern city of Kirkuk. | | General Systems Company in central Baghdad | | Jurf al-Naddaf complex, south of Baghdad | IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey at buildings within the complex (see GSN, March 10). | | March 8 | Taji Technical Battalion | Inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles (U.N. release, March 8). | | Al-Samoud Factory | U.N. release, March 8. | | Al-Qa Qaa | UNMOVIC missile inspectors verified the emptying and tagging of warheads for al-Samoud 2 missiles (U.N. release, March 8). | | Al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range | UNMOVIC biological inspectors supervised the excavation of R-400 bombs (U.N. release, March 8). | | Al-Qa-Qaa sulfuric acid plant | U.N. release, March 8. | | Yellow Corn Workshop/al-Haydaria | | Military factory currently under construction south of Baghdad | | High explosives-related sites south of Baghdad | | Sahal al-Din Company | | Area northwest of Baghdad | IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (U.N. release, March 8). | | March 7 | Maintenance department of the Mosul railway station | U.N. release, March 7. | | Branch of the Mesopotamia State Company for Seed Handling | | Al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range | UNMOVIC biological inspectors took samples from the remainders of containers used to transport biological agents (U.N. release, March 7). | | March 6 | Al-Mutasim | UNMOVIC missile inspectors observed the final concrete encasing of two destroyed casting chambers (see GSN, March 7). | | Al-Samoud Factory | UNMOVIC missile inspectors inventoried al-Samoud 2 missile components (see GSN, March 7). | | Al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range | UNMOVIC biological inspectors took samples from excavated R-400 bombs (see GSN, March 7). | | Two facilities near Aziziyah owned by the Mesopotamia State Company for Seeds | See GSN, March 7 | | Akashat Phosphate Mine in al-Qaim | | Undisclosed site in northern no-fly zone | Inspectors conducted aerial inspections of the sites (see GSN, March 7). | | Second undisclosed site in northern no-fly zone | | Third undisclosed site in northern no-fly zone | | North Gas Company in Kirkuk | See GSN, March 7. | | SAAD State Company in Baghdad | IAEA inspectors reviewed designs for a new factory (see GSN, March 7). | | Private trading company in the Mansour district of Baghdad | See GSN, March 7. | | North Baghdad | IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (see GSN, March 7). | | Al-Taji | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, March 6) | | March 5 | Al-Qa Qaa | UNMOVIC chemical inspectors inspected two plants at the site (see GSN, March 6). | | Bashair Trading Company | UNMOVIC biological inspectors worked to assess the site’s role in Iraq obtaining mobile biological laboratories (see GSN, March 6). | | Samarra East Airfield | See GSN, March 6. | | Salahaddin University in Irbil | | Mosul Gas Electric Company | | State-owned trading company in central Baghdad | | Computer center of a state-owned bank in central Baghdad | | Area southeast of Baghdad | IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (see GSN, March 6). | | Al-Taji | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles (see GSN, March 5). | | Al-Mutasim | See GSN, March 5. | | Al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range | | March 4 | Al-Taji | UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles and missile engines (see GSN, March 5). | | Al-Mutasim | UNMOVIC missile inspectors observed the destruction of a second casting chamber for al-Samoud 2 components (see GSN, March 5). | | Ibn Fernas Center in northern Baghdad | See GSN, March 5. | | Al-Basil Nawaran | | North Oil Company-owned oilfield in the northern city of Kirkuk | Inspectors conducted an aerial inspection (see GSN, March 5). | | Northern Region Customs | See GSN, March 5. | | March 3 | Al-Muthanna | UNMOVIC chemical inspectors observed the destruction of 14 empty 155 mm artillery shells, 10 of which had once been filled with mustard gas agent (see GSN, March 4). | | Mesopotamia State Company for Seeds in Baghdad | See GSN, March 4. | | Biology Department at the College of Science at Mosul University | | Al-Taji | |
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