Al-Qaeda:  Bin Laden Chose Sept. 11 Targets, Rejected Nuclear Plant Attack

Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the senior al-Qaeda commander who was apprehended earlier this month in Pakistan, has told authorities that Osama bin Laden had personally selected the targets for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 28).

According to a classified analysis distributed this week among U.S. counterterrorism officials, Mohammed has told interrogators that bin Laden gave Mohammed Atta, the leader of the Sept. 11 attacks, a “list of targets” that included the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, the U.S. Capitol, the White House, the Israeli Embassy in Washington and the Sears Tower in Chicago. 

Mohammed has also told authorities that in early 2001, al-Qaeda leaders discussed conducting a larger terrorism campaign that would have included attacks on U.S. gasoline stations, a nuclear reactor and bridges on both coasts, officials said.  Bin Laden rejected the expanded campaign, however, “because there was not enough time to prepare for such an operation,” the analysis said.

During interrogations, Mohammed told authorities that Jose Padilla, who was arrested last year on suspicion of trying to develop a “dirty bomb,” discussed the idea of attacking a building on the U.S.-Mexico border, with Texas being the most likely target, officials said (see GSN, Sept. 3, 2002; Eric Lichtblau, New York Times, March 20).

Terrorists Target U.S. Nuclear Plant

Meanwhile, terrorists are believed to have targeted the largest U.S. nuclear power plant — the Palo Verde facility, about 50 miles west of Phoenix, Ariz., according to the Washington Times (see GSN, Jan. 23).

The threat prompted Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano to deploy National Guard troops at the plant Tuesday, according to U.S. officials.  Security officials are currently looking for Iraqi “sleeper cells” that might launch an attack on the facility, according to the Times,

“We understand the sensitivity of this time, and we are very, very committed to protecting the safe operation of Palo Verde,” said Jim McDonald, spokesman for the Arizona Public Service Co., which owns the plant (Gertz/Seper, Washington Times, March 20).

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U.S. Response I:  White House Wants More Domestic Security Funding

U.S. President George W. Bush will ask Congress for emergency funds to pay for domestic counterterrorism efforts, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 10).

The White House would not say how much money would be needed or how it would be spent.

Congressional Republicans said they believe Congress will approve billions of dollars for domestic security as part of a package to fund the current conflict with Iraq and the expected occupation afterward.

The domestic security plan could include $1 billion for the Transportation Security Administration, as much as $700 million for the Coast Guard and an increase in grants to local police and fire departments, according to a senior Republican congressional staff member.

“The president will be sending a supplemental to Congress, looking for additional appropriations,” said Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.  “There will be a homeland security piece to that supplemental,” he added.

He said, however, that no final decisions had been made on the request.  Ridge made his remarks after meeting with Bush and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is seeking $900 million in counterterrorism funding (Philip Shenon, New York Times, March 20).

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U.S. Response II:  Nuclear Industry Opposes Proposed Security Upgrades

A new U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission proposal to require nuclear power plants to protect against larger terrorist attacks is too expensive and unrealistic, U.S. nuclear industry officials told a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing Tuesday (see GSN, Jan. 23).

The NRC has proposed modifying the “design basis threat” — the type of terrorist attack a nuclear plant must show it can withstand — by increasing the size and capability of hypothetical terrorist forces, according to Energy Daily.  Nuclear industry officials told the closed Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing, however, that the proposal is excessive.

Under the commission’s proposal, potential terrorists “are credited with weaponries and capabilities that even law enforcement forces cannot protect against, yet the NRC proposes to require the industry’s private security forces to defeat such forces with weapons and equipment that cannot compete with those of the adversary,” said Stephen Floyd, vice president of the Nuclear Energy Institute, an industry trade organization.

The NRC’s proposal would effectively require plant security forces to defend against a sophisticated attack that “reasonably would be characterized as an attack by an enemy of the United States,” Floyd said.  Because of this, Washington should either provide financial assistance to help plants improve security or the NRC should revise its proposal, he said.

“Under the Constitution, government entities — not private interests — are responsible for protecting against enemies of the Untied States,” Floyd said.

There are also industry concerns over the costs of modifying plants to be able to withstand the increased terrorist capabilities and weaponry envisioned by the NRC, Energy Daily reported.  It would take “at least two years — and at least $2 billion” to upgrade all 103 U.S. nuclear plants, according to C. Lance Terry, senior vice president and principal nuclear officer for TXU Energy (Jeff Beattie, Energy Daily, Match 20).

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Iraq:  United States Begins Military Action; Plans for WMD Contingencies

With air strikes and cruise missile attacks, the United States began last night a military campaign to forcefully disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, March 19).

Using 40 sea-launched cruise missiles plus bombs delivered by F-117A stealth aircraft, the United States targeted three sites around Baghdad in an attempt to kill Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, military officials said (Chandrasekaran/Ricks, Washington Post, March 20).

As night fell in Iraq today, U.S. air forces began bombarding Baghdad, ground forces in Kuwait began a heavy artillery barrage into Iraq and some advance U.S. troops had reportedly engaged Iraqi forces, according to CNN (CNN, March 20).

Iraq responded to last night’s attack by firing at least four ballistic missiles into northern Kuwait, two of which were destroyed by U.S. Patriot missile interceptors, U.S. military officials said (see related GSN story, today).

U.S. forces in Kuwait experienced a number of alerts following the attacks, prompting them to don chemical protection gear (CNN.com, March 20).

In a televised address to the nation shortly after the bombardment began, U.S. President George W. Bush said the purpose of the operation was to remove “an outlaw regime” that threatened the United States.

“Our nation enters this conflict reluctantly — yet, our purpose is sure,” Bush said.  “The people of the United States and our friends and allies will not live at the mercy of an outlaw regime that threatens the peace with weapons of mass murder.  We will meet that threat now, with our Army, Air Force, Navy, Coast Guard and Marines, so that we do not have to meet it later with armies of fire fighters and police and doctors on the streets of our cities,” he added (White House release, March 19).

About three hours after the U.S. strikes, Hussein appeared on Iraqi television to condemn the United States and the United Kingdom for “shameful crimes against Iraq and humanity.”

“We promise you that Iraq, its leadership and its people will stand up to the evil invaders, and we will take them to such limits that they will lose their patience in achieving their plans, which are pushed by criminal Zionism,” Hussein said.  “They will face a bitter defeat, God willing,” he added (Nelson/Kaplow, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March 20).

Disarmament Plans

The U.S. plan to forcibly disarm Iraq of WMD will probably be a three-phase operation, including protecting U.S. forces, securing suspected WMD sites and interviewing Iraqi scientists, according to a senior U.S. official.

The first phase of the U.S. disarmament effort will focus on force protection, by seizing more than 1,000 suspect sites, the official said.  “It’s a high priority from the military perspective to make sure that they don’t sustain casualties from WMD or put at risk those things nearby,” the official added.

This phase is also likely to include a number of alerts as U.S. troops encounter suspect facilities, said Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  Many of these alerts will probably turn out to be false because WMD plants will be hard for nonspecialists to recognize.

In the second phase of the operation, discovered WMD sites will be secured and held for inspection and ultimate destruction, according to the Financial Times.  During this phase, journalists and international inspectors will probably be given access to these sites in an attempt to counter claims, likely to be made, that any discovered evidence of WMD had been planted by the CIA, the Times reported.

The third phase of the disarmament effort will focus on examining recovered documents and interviewing Iraqi WMD scientists and technicians, the Times reported.  This will help U.S. officials determine what countries and companies provided Iraq with materials for its WMD efforts (Stephen Fidler, Financial Times, March 20).

In recent days, the United States has also obtained new information on Iraqi biological and chemical weapons programs from Iraqi scientists and intelligence agents who were threatened with dire consequences in a post-Hussein Iraq if they did not cooperate, according to two U.S. officials with knowledge of the effort.

In early March, the U.S. State Department announced that 60 countries had been asked to expel suspected Iraqi operatives living abroad under diplomatic or commercial cover.  The announcement was a cover for Operation Imminent Horizon, in which Iraqi operatives were pressured to provide information on WMD programs and military strategy, according to the Washington Post.

In the operation, U.S. and allied intelligence services presented a harsh choice to summoned Iraqi operatives.  They were told they could “turn” or be sent back to Iraq “to enjoy your very short stay in Baghdad,” one of the two U.S. officials said (Barton Gellman, Washington Post, March 20).

Experts said yesterday that even if Hussein still retained stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, it would more difficult for Iraq to use them against U.S. troops than it was against Iran in the 1980s.

Iraq will probably have less success now in conducting chemical and biological attacks because the delivery systems Iraq used to launch such attacks in its eight-year war against Iran — thousands of bombs, rockets and artillery shells — will be less effective, experts said.

“The problem for Iraq today is that the U.S. will control the air," said Jonathan Tucker, director of the chemical and biological nonproliferation project at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies.  “And the massed hundreds of pieces of artillery needed to deliver tons of chemical agents to be effective on a target would be an easy target itself,” he said (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, March 20).

Inspectors

U.N. weapons inspectors, who completed their withdrawal from Iraq yesterday, will probably stay in Cyprus until at least the middle of next week, U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki said (Tania Khadder, Cyprus Mail, March 20).

Jorn Siljeholm, one of the withdrawn inspectors, criticized the U.S. intelligence reports that had been provided during the inspections, saying the reports were more “political” than factual.

“None of their hot tips were ever confirmed,” Siljeholm said.  “I don’t know about a single decontamination truck that didn’t turn out to be a fire engine or a water truck,” he added.

Other inspectors said, however, that the climate of fear within Iraq had made their mission much more difficult.

“If an Iraqi scientist revealed to us everything he knew, he and his family would be liquidated,” an UNMOVIC official said.  “Iraqi scientists were warned to be careful.  Taking them out of the country, taking them to heaven, would not have made any difference in convincing them to talk,” he added.

Miroslav Gregoric, the head of the UNMOVIC mission in Baghdad, said he was unsure whether more time would have resulted in more success.

“We were removing weapons of mass destruction.  In four months it was difficult to achieve everything.  Our inspectors were working seven days a week, but the system inside Iraq is very closed; people are frightened.  Our work was like assembling a jigsaw puzzle: when you put all the pieces together you hope to see the whole picture,” Gregoric said (Own Bowcott, London Guardian, March 20).

U.S Citizens at Risk

The U.S. State Department yesterday issued an advisory warning U.S. citizens abroad that they now face an increased threat of terrorist attack due to the U.S. military campaign against Iraq.

“As a result of military action in Iraq, there is a potential for retaliatory actions to be taken against U.S. citizens and interests throughout the world,” the advisory said, adding that such attacks could involve the use of chemical or biological agents (Associated Press, March 20).

In a second threat advisory, State singled out U.S. citizens in the Middle East, Persian Gulf region and North Africa.

“The Department of State reminds Americans traveling to or residing in the Middle East and North Africa — including the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf region — to exercise caution,” the advisory said.  “The threat to U.S. citizens in the Middle East includes the risk of attack by terrorist groups, including … those with links to al-Qaeda,” it added (Matthew Lee, Agence France-Presse, March 20).

Saudi Arabia Prepares for Fallout of U.S. Nuclear Strike

Senior Saudi officials have developed contingency plans in the event the United States uses nuclear weapons against Iraq, according to the Washington Times.

The plans call for the Saudi interior, health, defense and security ministries to coordinate their efforts to respond to a nuclear attack, contain fallout, maintain order and provide treatment centers, the Times reported. 

A spokesman for the Saudi Embassy in Washington said yesterday that he had not seen the document and could not confirm its authenticity.  “I am not aware of this plan and there have been many false documents floating around the region in recent days,” embassy spokesman Adel al-Jubeir said (David Sands, Washington Times, March 20).

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Israeli Response:  Country Prepares for Iraqi Chemical, Missile Attacks

The Israeli Home Front Command yesterday ordered Israeli civilians to prepare their gas masks for possible use and to keep them nearby at all times (see GSN, March 18). 

Israeli citizens are not to use the masks, however, until ordered to do so by the Israeli military or until after hearing a siren, a Home Front Command announcement said.  The instructions to prepare the gas masks are not based on any new intelligence information concerning a potential Iraqi chemical attack, the Israeli military and prime minister’s office said.

In addition to preparing for possible chemical attacks, Israel has also stepped up its defenses against a possible Iraqi missile attack, according to the Jerusalem Post (see GSN, March 4).  The Israeli military yesterday sent emergency call-up orders to 12,000 reservists, some of whom will be attached to the Arrow and Patriot missile interceptor batteries deployed throughout the country.

The Home Front Command has deployed observers on tall buildings and hilltops to spot incoming missiles and to direct emergency response personnel to missile attack sites, according to the Post.  Teams responsible for assessing the nature of warheads have also been deployed to provide immediate information on incoming Iraqi missiles.

Israel’s two Arrow batteries and three Patriot systems have now been declared fully operational, providing almost all of the country with, as one Israeli officer said, “by far the best missile shield in the world” (Jerusalem Post, March 20).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Has Trouble With Reprocessing Plant

North Korea is experiencing difficulties activating a nuclear fuel processing plant that would produce plutonium for nuclear weapons, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, March 19).

“They are working 24/7,” a senior administration official said.  “But it’s not going as fast as they wanted to,” the official added.

The White House believes North Korea wanted to start the processing plant during a U.S. attack on Iraq, but aging technology is preventing rapid action, according to the Post.

“They do not have cutting-edge technology,” said another senior official of the plant, which is modeled on a 1950s U.S. design.  “They definitely are trying hard,” he added.

If the plant restarts, however, North Korea’s capability to produce nuclear material has been overstated, according to Robert Alvarez, a former deputy assistant energy secretary.

Some officials have estimated that North Korea will be able to produce five or six bombs within months, but Alvarez said those calculations are based on modern U.S. reprocessing plants.  The older North Korean plan could take “a span of several months to a year” to produce the material, he added (Kessler/Pincus, Washington Post, March 20).

South Korea, meanwhile, put its military on heightened alert to prepare for North Korean provocations timed to coincide with war in Iraq.

“We expect North Korea to be cautious, but we have strengthened our alert status and our early warning status in response to possible North Korean attempts to increase tensions,” said Song Kyoung-hee, a spokeswoman for President Roh Moo-hyun.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney called Roh this morning to discuss U.S. action in Iraq (Soo-Jeong Lee, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 20).

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Iran:  Russia Readies to Sign Spent Fuel Return Agreement

A Russian Atomic Energy Ministry source has said the ministry expects to receive permission within a month to sign an agreement with Iran for the return to Russia of spent nuclear fuel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant, Interfax reported Monday (see GSN, March 12).

“Iran has already approved this document, and it is now at the government’s secretariat,” the source said.  “We expect that a government ordinance authorizing the Atomic Ministry to sign this document with Iran will be signed as early as this spring,” the source added (Interfax, March 17 in FBIS-SOV, March 17).

Russian technicians will continue their work on the Bushehr plant even while the United States conducts military operations against Iraq, Russian Deputy Atomic Energy Minister Andrei Malyshev said Tuesday.  The plant is 300 kilometers from the Iraqi border and is well protected by the Iranian military, he said.

Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Namdar-Zanganeh has said the Bushehr plant is expected to begin operations by the end of next year, Iranian state radio reported Tuesday (RFE/RL NewsLine, March 20).

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United States:  Energy Department Contracting Costs $18 Billion Per Year

The U.S. Energy Department spends $18 billion every year on contracting costs and nine years of reform efforts have done nothing to ease this financial burden, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, March 11).

The money going to U.S. contractors consumes most of the Energy Department’s budget each year, which is currently $21 billion, according to AP.

In a recent report, the General Accounting Office said that reforms enacted in 1994 have done little to help.  The Energy Department uses contractors to maintain nuclear weapons, clean radioactive sites and conduct research.

The department has attempted to control pay based on performance and has encouraged competition.  Contractors have now been told that they “will make these programs work,” according to Energy Department spokesman Joe Davis.

Officials are scheduled to present the report to the House Government Reform Committee today.  Committee Chairman Tom Davis (R-Va.) said reform “results thus far are mixed at best and at worst, the department may not even know if its reform measures are working.”

The report specifically cited the National Ignition Facility at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where projected costs have jumped from $2.1 billion to $3.3 billion and the scheduled completion date has been pushed back by eight years (Larry Margasak, Associated Press/Austin American-Statesman, March 20).

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France:  Police Detain Two for Alleged Chemical Attack Plot

French authorities Tuesday detained two people allegedly linked to suspected terrorists arrested in December for plotting a chemical weapons attack in support of Chechen rebels (see GSN, Jan. 27).

During the raid in Oise, northwest of Paris, officials found a chemical and biological protection suit and empty gas canisters, the Associated Press reported (Associated Press/Newsday, March 20).

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United States:  Patriots Shoot Down Iraqi Missiles

U.S. Patriot missile defense batteries shot down two Iraqi missiles fired at Kuwait today, according to military officials.

The downed missiles were initially reported to be Scuds, but the Pentagon later said they were al-Samouds or other short-range Iraqi missiles.  The missiles did not contain chemical or biological agents, according to a U.S. military spokesman.

Iraqi Information Minister Mohammed al-Sahaf said he had heard reports Iraq fired a Scud missile, “but we don’t have Scud missiles.”

Shortly after 12:30 p.m., local time, three Patriot missiles downed the first Iraqi missile, CNN.com reported.  At 1:30 p.m. one Patriot successfully intercepted another missile (CNN.com, March 20).

By mid-day today, CNN reported that Iraq has fired a total of eight missiles toward Kuwait (CNN, March 20).

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