Iraq:  United States Hopes to Capture Baghdad Without Force

U.S. military commanders hope that Iraqi troops deployed in defense of the capital of Baghdad can be persuaded to surrender the city and thereby avoid an all-out assault, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, March 24).

The United States is sending the three Republican Guard divisions defending the city — the Medina, Nebuchadnezzar and Hammurabi divisions — a mixture of threats and persuasions to convince them to surrender, AP reported.  The message, directed primarily to Iraqi foot soldiers, can be described as “We need your help to reconstruct this nation.  You need to be part of the solution,” military analyst John Abrams said.

U.S. and British forces hope to be able to capture Baghdad without suffering high numbers of military casualties or inflicting civilian casualties, which are expected to result from urban combat, according to AP.  Another concern is possible chemical weapons attacks (see related GSN story, today).

“We are talking about a surgical strategy against an enemy that is fortified in an urban environment,” Abrams said.  “We have to do this in a way other than busting in doors.  That is when the catastrophic losses begin to grow,” he added (Richard Pyle, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 25).

U.S. Marines have been able to force their way across the Euphrates River at the southern Iraqi city of Nassiriya, Reuters reported today.  There are still reports, however, of Iraqi troops still operating in the city.  The Marine force could now prepare to advance toward the city of Kut, on the Tigris River, as part of a second prong of the attack on Baghdad, according to Reuters (Sean Maguire, Reuters, March 25).

In the air, U.S. and British aircraft conducted a number of airstrikes today on Iraqi sites and military positions in and around Baghdad, according to CNN.com.  The targeted sites included an Iraqi air force complex and the Saddam International Airport.  About half of the airstrikes targeted Republican Guard units, U.S. Defense Department officials said.

“I am sure that (the Medina Division) has been degraded significantly in the last 48 hours or so.  I couldn’t judge its current strength,” Maj. Gen. Stanley McChrystal said (CNN.com, March 25).

Where is Hussein?

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein might currently be in a Baghdad bunker receiving medical attention from military doctors for injuries sustained during a round of airstrikes at the onset of the war, U.S. intelligence and military sources said yesterday.

“We know we hit him.  We know he was wounded” Thursday in a missile and bomb attack on a compound south of Baghdad, a U.S. intelligence official said.  “We also believe he hasn’t left Baghdad,” the official added (Jack Kelley, USA Today, March 25).

War Costs

U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to ask Congress for $75 billion to help cover the costs of the war with Iraq, a senior Bush administration official said yesterday.

The request covers the next six months and include “a conflict, a period of stabilization in Iraq and the phased withdrawal of a large number of American forces,” the official said.  The request does not cover, however any expenses occurred after the end of fiscal 2003 or the long-term costs of rebuilding Iraq, according to the New York Times.

The request includes about $63 billion to cover the war costs, about $8 billion for relief efforts and about $4 billion to help improve homeland security against possible retaliatory terrorist attacks, the Times reported.

A spokesman for House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) said Republican leaders in Congress hope to have the request ready for Bush’s signature before the Easter recess.  Congressional hearings on the request could begin by the end of the week, according to the Times.

“We need to make certain that our men and women in uniform have the resources necessary to get the job done in Iraq,” Hastert said in a statement yesterday.  “I expect that both Republicans and Democrats will support this legislation by overwhelming margins,” he added (Bumiller/Firestone, New York Times, March 25).

Anti-WMD Units

The first 20 soldiers of a 532-man Ukrainian anti-WMD unit left for Kuwait today, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.  The unit is set to be deployed near the al-Kuwait airport and the al-Ahmadi and Dokha seaports, the ministry said (Associated Press, March 25).

A joint Czech-Slovak anti-WMD unit stationed in Kuwait has so far experienced six Iraqi ballistic missile attacks, unit commander Gen. Dusan Lupuljev said.  U.S. Patriot missile interceptors successfully countered all of the attacks, Lupuljev said (see related GSN story, today; RFE/RL NewsLine, March 25).

Iraqi Missiles

Experts have begun examining a number of suspected Scud ballistic missiles found at the recently captured Dirhamiyah chemical plant outside the city of Basra, the Scotsman reported today.  The missile find has raised suspicions that they were to be armed with chemical weapons, with British military officers saying there was no good reason why missiles would be stored at a chemical plant, the Scotsman reported (Chamberling/Gallagher, The Scotsman, March 25).

German police have charged two German nationals with violating export control laws by allegedly trying to supply Iraq with rocket components, investigators said today.  One of the two men, identified as Klaus H. has admitted that he and his partner, identified as Khidir R., held a series of meetings last year with three Iraqi generals at Iraqi military bases, where the generals gave the two men a list of items they wanted produced, German state prosecutor Eckhard Baade said (Agence France-Presse, March 25).

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Pakistan:  China Signs on to Build New Pakistani Power Plant

Pakistan and China yesterday signed a memorandum of understanding for China to help build a nuclear power plant in the Pakistani city of Chasma (see GSN, Oct. 29, 2002).

The two countries plan to sign a formal agreement soon on China’s aid to build the 300-megawatt reactor, said Pervez Butt, chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission.  The plant is expected to be constructed within six years, Butt added (Business Recorder, March 25).

As a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, China must ensure that any facility sold to a non-NPT state, such as Pakistan, would be subject to International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards, according to Jon Wolfsthal, deputy director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  He said it could be assumed the planned facility will be placed under such safeguards because of the publicity surrounding its construction.  In addition, a reactor already operating at Chasma is subject to IAEA safeguards, according to Carnegie’s nonproliferation reference book, Deadly Arsenals:  Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction.

In a similar case, Russia has agreed to assist Pakistan’s South Asian rival India in the construction of the Kudankulam nuclear plant (see GSN, Feb. 14).  This aid is more controversial, however, because Russia, in addition to being an NPT member, is a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which establishes more rigorous nonproliferation guidelines, Wolfsthal said.  NSG guidelines prevent exporters from transferring nuclear technology to a country that has not accepted IAEA safeguards on all of its nuclear facilities, instead of on a site-by-site basis.  Russia has argued that its nuclear aid contracts with India were signed before the full-scope guidelines came into effect and therefore should be “grandfathered” in; a claim the United States has opposed, Wolfsthal said.

In contrast, China is not a NSG member, Wolfsthal said, adding that a country cannot violate an export control regime to which it is not a member (Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, March 25).

For further information, see:

Nuclear Suppliers Group

NPT Text

States Parties to the NPT (U.N.)

U.N. Background on NPT

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North Korea:  Seoul’s Foreign Minister to Seek Common Ground on U.S. Visit

South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan said he plans to use his visit to Washington this week to pursue a joint approach to the North Korean nuclear crisis (see GSN, March 24).  Yoon was scheduled to leave Seoul today for a four-day visit.

Yoon also said that a planned meeting this year between South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and U.S. President George W. Bush would be of “fundamental importance” to the countries’ relationship.

“I hope through my meetings with various high-level officials in charge of foreign policy and national security, our two sides will be able to coordinate and devise a common strategy for the peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue,” Yoon said today.

Yoon also said that he plans to discuss changes to the size and positioning of the U.S. military force in South Korea (Reuters/MSNBC.com, March 26).

Yoon is scheduled to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and members of Congress, the Korea Herald reported.

“Minister Yoon will brief U.S. officials and politicians on President Roh Moo-hyun’s North Korea policy and call for their support for inter-Korea reconciliation,” a Foreign Ministry official said (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, March 26).

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U.S. Response:  Army Tests Radar’s Ability to Find Chemical Weapons

A crop-duster aircraft sprayed a mixture of clay, water and alcohol over Oklahoma yesterday, in an effort to determine if a weather radar system could detect a cloud of biological or chemical agents (see GSN, April 25, 2002).

U.S. Army and Environmental Protection Agency officials are conducting the test.  The EPA has conducted similar tests dating back to early 2001, the Contra Costa Times reported (Contra Costa Times, March 25).

Yesterday’s spray was the first of the three-week-long test, with 261 runs planned in total, according to the Associated Press.  Of those, 27 will be blind trials, with the crop-duster pilot not telling radar operators whether he sprayed any material or not, AP reported.

The test is meant to help develop computer technology for a national biological terrorism detection system, said Robert Lyons of the Army’s nuclear, biological and chemical detection programs.  Washington plans to install new detection software in about 150 radar stations throughout the United States, AP reported (Jennifer Brown, Associated Press, March 24).

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Threat Assessment:  United States Vulnerable to Botulinum Toxin Attack, Officials Say

U.S. officials believe the country is vulnerable to a terrorist attack involving botulinum toxin and unprepared to respond to such an attack, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, March 24).

“We are making this the highest priority,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health.  “We are really marshaling all available resources,” he added.

The United States currently has about 1,000 doses of antitoxin on hand to respond to a botulinum attack, according to an official.  California has a program to produce special antitoxin for children, the sole U.S. producer of such a treatment, but Governor Gray Davis has proposed eliminating the program because of budget shortfalls, AP reported.  U.S. officials, however, are considering taking over the California program.

A single gram of botulinum toxin, which kills by paralyzing the lungs, could kill up to 1 million people, AP reported.  While the toxin is noncontagious and treatable, experts fear it could be used to contaminate food supplies, resulting in panic and economic disruption.  Even though the toxin can be neutralized by cooking foods at high temperatures, some foods such as fruits, vegetables and milk, are either not cooked or not processed at high enough temperatures, according to AP.

A botulinum attack on the U.S. food supply “could really bring the country to its knees,” said Michael Doyle, director of the Center for Food Safety at the University of Georgia (Laura Meckler, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 25).

For further information, see:

Journal of the American Medical Association Background on Botulinum Toxin

CDC Basic Information About Botulism

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Iraq:  Baghdad Might Be Preparing Chemical Attack

Iraq may be waiting to use its suspected stockpiles of chemical weapons until U.S. forces approach Baghdad, senior Bush administration officials said yesterday, noting that recently captured Iraqi soldiers have been found with gas masks.  Iraq might also attempt to blame the United States for any chemical weapons use, the officials said (see related GSN story, today).

U.S. intelligence also indicates that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has authorized the use of chemical weapons against Shiite Muslims in the south of Iraq, Bush administration officials said, adding that there were no signs yet than such an attack is imminent.

“There are such reports,” U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said.  “I have no doubt that he would do such a thing if he thought it served his interest.  And so we are concerned about it,” he added (David Sanger, New York Times, March 25).

Najaf Chemical Plant

No evidence of weapons of mass destruction has so far been found at a chemical plant near the southern Iraqi town of Najaf that was recently captured by U.S. forces, Pentagon officials said yesterday (see GSN, March 24).  While the buildings at the plant appeared to be camouflaged, the site was probably abandoned some time ago, a Pentagon official said.

Two Iraqi facilities described last year in a CIA report on Iraq’s WMD efforts are in areas currently under U.S. and British control — one in Nasiriya and one in al-Khamisiya, according to the Financial Times.  No evidence has been found, however, of WMD production at either site (Mark Huband, Financial Times, March 25).

Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz yesterday played down the possible significance of the Najaf plant, saying it had been previously visited by U.N. weapons inspectors.

“It’s just a small and isolated factory used for civilian purposes,” Aziz said (Sharon Behn, Washington Times, March 25).

WMD Hunt

Meanwhile, the United States has begun a secret mission to locate the archives of the Mukhabarat, the Iraqi intelligence service, U.S. officials said (see GSN, Feb. 4).

U.S. special operations forces are conducting the mission to find and secure Iraqi intelligence documents, sources said.  The archives are believed to contain information outlining the entirety of Iraq’s suspected war crimes, links to terrorist organizations, possible WMD locations and efforts to purchase weapons from around the world, according to the Washington Times.

“One of the targets of special (operations) in this war is to get the raw Iraqi intelligence files — the archives,” a U.S. official said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said he believes U.S. special forces will be successful in their search. 

“You never know if you will find the files.  We have information that they have been dispersing their documentation files, putting them in private homes, burying things, and trying to avoid being caught in that,” Rumsfeld said.  “But I suspect we will,” he added (Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times, March 25).

With the war in Iraq almost one-week-old, U.S.-led forces have still found no signs of Iraqi WMD, according to USA Today.

Bush administration officials and experts have said, however, that there are several reasons why no Iraqi chemical or biological weapons have been discovered.  For example, U.S. air superiority has negated Iraq’s ability to conduct airstrikes with such weapons, believed to be the most accurate delivery method.  In addition, if Iraq does possess chemical and biological stockpiles they are likely to be kept close to Baghdad, and not in the southern part of the country where most of the fighting to date has occurred, according to experts.

“To find this stuff, you’ll probably have to get people in the production network to take you to sites where it’s well hidden,” said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.  “To run into one of them in the middle of the desert is probably not going to be very likely,” he added.

Hussein might also believe that international opinion might help force the United States to the negotiating table, and that if he were to use weapons of mass destruction, such support might evaporate, according to experts.  Because of this, Hussein might not choose to use chemical or biological weapons unless the war looks all but lost.

“If they use them, they’d have to admit they have them,” said former arms inspector Jonathan Tucker.  “If they do use them, it will be a last-ditch effort in which they throw the kitchen sink at advancing forces,” he added (Bill Nichols, USA Today, March 25).

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France:  Ricin Discovery Shows Potential Al-Qaeda Link

The discovery last week of ricin at a French rail station shows that al-Qaeda chemical warfare experts are operating in France, according to an official from the French anti-terrorist unit, DST (see GSN, March 21).

“Although no trace of ricin has been found on French territory before, the discovery of it at the Gare de Lyon seems to indicate that al-Qaeda specialists in chemical attacks are still in France — or were here only a few days ago,” the official said.

The train station chemicals appear to be similar to those needed for a ricin “recipe” that has been linked to al-Qaeda.

Authorities are investigating a link between the ricin and a cell of Islamic militants known as the “Chechen network,” the London Telegraph reported Sunday.

“There are suggestions of a link, even though we have no definite proof,” said Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s interior minister.

DST is reportedly pursuing a group of militants who are “veterans of the Chechen and Afghan conflicts who had returned to the European scene who are thought to be working on a project to fabricate and acquire toxic materials in preparation for a chemical or biological attack,” according to DST report.

A member of this network, Mirouane Ben Ahmed, has been linked to Rabah Kadre, who was arrested by British authorities this year in connection to a ricin discovery in London.

“There was evidence from the London raid that the equivalent of two small pots of ricin were missing.  Clearly we have to look at the link between the Islamic extremists in Britain and those in France, who certainly knew each other,” a French official said (Kim Willsher, London Telegraph, March 23).

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United States:  Interception Reports Are No Indication of Long-Range Success, Experts Say

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — U.S. Patriot missile interceptors have reportedly seen success in shooting down several Iraqi ballistic missiles bound for Kuwait, but those successes should not be interpreted as portents of the effectiveness of missile defenses against longer-range threats, according to experts (see GSN, March 24).

Reports have varied, but as many as 15 Iraqi missiles have been fired at Kuwait since the war in Iraq began last week and the United States has said several were successfully intercepted, including two in the past two days.  All the Iraqi attacks used variants of the short-range Ababil missile, according to reports.

Missile defense experts said the Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missiles should be able to down the relatively slow and predictable Ababil missile.

“Hitting these missiles is slightly more difficult than hitting an airplane,” said prominent missile defense critic Ted Postol, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor. 

The Ababil missiles are “considerably slower than the Scuds,” said David Wright, a senior analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists, making them a simpler target to shoot down.

“It would not surprise me if in fact they are intercepting,” he said.  In the 1991 Gulf War, the U.S. Army tried to down longer-range Scud missiles using older Patriot Advanced Capability 2 missiles.  Wright said that the current intercepts involve “a slower, less maneuvering target and a more maneuverable interceptor.”

After the 1991 war, Postol challenged the initial, official U.S. estimate that Patriots had downed more than 75 percent of the Scud missiles that Iraq fired, but he said the current claims might be realistic given the slower missiles.

The Pentagon has since acknowledged that the 1991 figures were greatly overstated and “overwhelming evidence is that it was zero” missiles intercepted in 1991, Postol said.

“Why should we believe them now?” Postol asked, demanding that the Army make the recently downed Iraqi missiles available.

“If they claim it’s secret, then I would be very suspicious” about the accuracy of the U.S. claims, Postol said.

“There’s no reason not to make a target available,” he added.

Ababil Success Carries Little Weight

It is difficult to gain much insight on U.S. missile defense efforts from the recent Pentagon claims, according to Wright.

It is “very difficult to extrapolate” these results to larger claims of Patriot success, he said.

“It has no implication for missile defense … it doesn’t apply,” Postol said.

For further information, see:

PAC-3 Fact Sheet

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Taiwan:  Officials Watch PAC-3s in Iraq Before Purchase Decision

Taiwanese defense officials are monitoring the success of U.S. Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missiles in use in Iraq, prior to possible purchases by Taipei, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, March 17).

“The results could be used in the future build-up,” said Taiwanese Defense Minister Tan Yao-ming, referring to a planned increase in missile defenses on the island (see GSN, March 24).

U.S. defense officials have been encouraging Taipei to improve its missile defenses to counter the 400 ballistic missiles China has arrayed against it.

Taiwan might purchase six PAC-3 systems to complement its improved PAC-2 systems but some senior political figures are concerned about the Patriots’ effectiveness (Agence France-Presse, March 25).

U.S. officials have been pushing Taiwan to acquire early warning radar systems, and Taipei is now considering two radar options, Jane’s Defense Weekly reported this week.

Taiwan is reportedly developing the Sky Bow 3 and the Long Mountain missile defense systems, which could serve as a cheaper alternative to the Patriot.  The Long Mountain is slated for completion by 2005, according to Jane’s (Wendell Minnick, Jane’s Defense Weekly, March 26).

For further information, see:

PAC-3 Fact Sheet

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