Threat Assessment I:  Terrorist Activity Significantly Reduced Last Year, U.S. State Department Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — International terrorist activity last year decreased to levels not seen since the late 1960s, according to a U.S. State Department report released yesterday (see GSN, April 22).

The report, Patterns of Global Terrorism, found that terrorists last year conducted 199 attacks, a 44 percent decrease from the 335 attacks reported in 2001.  The report also found that terrorist attacks claimed significantly fewer lives last year than in the previous year.  In 2002, 725 people were killed by terrorist attacks, compared with 3,295 fatalities suffered in 2001 — the majority of those caused by the Sept. 11 attacks in New York and Washington, according to the report.

The last time the number of terrorist attacks decreased below 200 was in 1969, Cofer Black, State counterterrorism coordinator, said yesterday at a press conference to release the report.  “This is a remarkable achievement,” he said.

Black credited the reduced number of terrorist attacks to several factors, including increased security measures throughout the world and the arrest of a large number of terrorist suspects, including more than 3,000 suspected al-Qaeda operatives in more than 100 countries.

“Lastly, I would credit the overall post-9/11 worldwide security environment,” Black said.  “Nations are on guard against terrorism.  They are sharing intelligence and law enforcement information, they are arresting suspects, they are thwarting attacks,” he said.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday also praised international efforts to reduce acts of terrorism.

“I am pleased to report that unprecedented progress has been made across the international community,” Powell said.  “Nations everywhere now recognize that we are all in this together; none of us can combat terrorism alone.  The global threat demands a global response.  Concerted action is essential, and together we are taking that concerted action,” he said.

The report also maintains the current U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism — Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Syria and Sudan.  “Despite significant pressure from the U.S. government,” the report says, these countries “did not take all the necessary actions to disassociate themselves fully from their ties to terrorism in 2002.”

Out of the seven countries, Iran was considered to be the most active state sponsor of terrorism last year, according to the report.  It notes the efforts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security to plan and support terrorist attacks, as well as Iran’s encouragement of anti-Israeli activities.  The report also says Iran had a “mixed” record of combating al-Qaeda last year, noting Tehran’s detention of some al-Qaeda operatives while providing a safe haven for others.

While Iran, Iraq and North Korea did little last year to support antiterrorism efforts, the State report noted the efforts of Libya, Syria and Sudan to combat terrorism, adding that more still needed to be done.

“Syria and Libya have continually indicated that they wish to aid the United States in the conflict against terrorism and have curtailed their sponsorship activities,” the report says.  “Their cooperation remained deficient in other areas, however,” it added.

Even before the Sept. 11 attacks, Sudan had begun to increase its antiterrorism cooperation with the United States, according to the report.  It highlights Sudan’s continued efforts, including its subscription to 11 of the 12 international protocols against terrorism and its efforts to end a 20-year civil war that helps make the country a safe haven for terrorist groups.

“They have made very good progress.  We’re very pleased,” Black said yesterday, referring to Sudan.  “There is a ways to go yet,” he said.

Black also said that Powell has recommended to U.S. President George W. Bush that Iraq be removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism now that ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is no longer in control of the country.  The State Department plans to also propose to Congress that Iraq be removed from the list, he said.

Powell yesterday held up Iraq as “an example of a state transformed” from a supporter of terrorism to a possible force for security and stability in the Middle East.

“To the region and the world, Iraq can become an example of a state transformed,” Powell said.  “Instead of a threat to international peace and security, it can now become a contributor to regional and international peace and security,” he said.

Powell warned, however, that even with the successes won over the last year in the war on terrorism, both in reducing the number of attacks and in reducing state sponsorship of such attacks, terrorist organizations still posed a threat to the United States.

“Even as I speak, terrorist are planning appalling crimes and trying to get their hands on weapons of mass destruction,” Powell said.  “We cannot and will not relax our resolve, our efforts and our vigilance,” he said.

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Threat Assessment II:  Al-Qaeda Threat Diminished But Still Real, FBI Director Says

FBI Director Robert Mueller said yesterday that while al-Qaeda’s ability to attack U.S. targets has diminished, the group still poses a threat (see GSN, April 23).

“The war with al-Qaeda is not over,” Mueller said.  “We have not won it by any stretch of the imagination.  Al-Qaeda still seeks to attack us and has the capacity to do it.  Will we be attacked by terrorists in the future?  Yes,” he said.

Several actions have contributed to the weakening of al-Qaeda, including the capture of several top leaders and the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan that ousted the group from its sanctuary there, Mueller said.  “We tend to forget that was a huge blow to al-Qaeda, and they have been unable to find another such sanctuary,” he said.

One of the most significant captures was the arrest of Khalid Shaikh Mohammmed, according to Mueller (see GSN, March 24).  He singled out Mohammed’s capture “because he had spent time in the U.S. and knew our vulnerabilities” (Johnson/Locy, USA Today, May 1).

U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia Warns of Terrorist Threat

Meanwhile, the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia warned yesterday that terrorist groups may be close to completing plans to conduct attacks on U.S. citizens there.

“The embassy advises the American community in Saudi Arabia that it has received information that terrorist groups may be in the final phases of planning terrorist attacks on American interests in Saudi Arabia,” the embassy said in a statement.

Potential targets could be sites where U.S. citizens and other foreigners gather, such as residential areas, restaurants, and resorts and beaches, the embassy statement said.  The embassy has advised its employees and their dependents to limit their travel to essential business.  In addition, the embassy “remains under authorized departure status for mission nonessential personnel and dependants,” it said (Sydney Morning Herald, May 1).

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Iraq:  Bush Set to Declare End of Major Combat Operations

U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to announce tonight the end of major military action in Iraq, about six weeks after the announcement of the start of the war, according to the Chicago Tribune (see GSN, April 30).

For his address, Bush will be flown out to the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln off the coast of California.  While most of Bush’s speech is expected to focus on the progress made in Iraq and in the overall war on terrorism, he is also expected to acknowledge that ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction have not yet been found, White House aides said.

“This is a significant moment in our history in which the president, in a unique way, will be able to thank the men and women who put themselves in harm’s way,” White House communications director Dan Bartlett said.

In his speech, Bush will not formally declare that the war in Iraq is over because such an announcement would require the release of Iraqi prisoners of war under international law, according to the Tribune.  Such an announcement would also complicate the search for former senior Iraqi officials because the search would then be seen as a continuation of hostilities, officials said.

“The president knows that while major combat operations have ended and while the next phase has begun with the reconstruction of Iraq, there continue to be threats to the security and the safety of the American people, and he will describe that,” White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said (Bob Kemper, Chicago Tribune, May 1).

Blair Confident in WMD Case

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Tony Blair yesterday expressed confidence that Iraqi weapons of mass destruction would be found, saying that anyone who doubted otherwise would be left “eating their words.”

“I am absolutely convinced and confident about the case on weapons of mass destruction,” Blair said (Boston Globe, May 1).

Possible Hussein Letter

The London-based Arabic newspaper Al Quds al Arabi yesterday published a letter said to be signed by Hussein, according to the New York Times.

The letter, dated April 28, Hussein’s 66th birthday, calls on Iraqis to rise up against the “infidel, criminal, murderous and cowardly occupier” and predicted that “the day of liberation and victory will come.”

Abdel Bari Atwan, editor of the newspaper, said the letter proved that Hussein was still alive and able to resist the United States.

“This confirms to me that he is definitely saying, ‘I'm still alive, I’m kicking, I’m not finished,’” Atwan said.

Atwan, who believes the letter is genuine, also noted a different tone in the letter than in previous statements by Hussein.

“He is not defiant, as he used to be, not arrogant — he is more modest, trying to be humble,” Atwan said.  “He's not saying:  ‘I am the God; you have to worship me.  I am different, but I am not finished,” Atwan added (Warren Hodge, New York Times, May 1).

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North Korea:  White House Orders North Korean Nuclear Investigation

The White House has ordered intelligence agencies to investigate whether North Korea could have reprocessed 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods and escaped the notice of U.S. intelligence-gathering services, as Pyongyang claims to have done, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, April 30).

Last week North Korea claimed to have reprocessed the fuel rods and to have developed nuclear weapons.

“We can’t establish that as a matter of fact with our intelligence community, but they said they did it,” U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday.

U.S. officials were skeptical of the North Korean claims.

“We think they are bluffing,” said a senior Bush administration official.  “But we felt the necessity to go back and review every possibility, in the off chance that we missed something,” the official said.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun dismissed North Korea’s claims as “game tactics in North Korea-U.S. negotiations” (Sanger/French, New York Times, May 1).

Seoul is hoping to be included in future discussions on the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear crisis and Pyongyang is not entirely against the idea, according to a top South Korean official.

“We will naturally sit on the table to some degree until the talks progress.  The North Koreans didn’t strongly oppose our demand that South Korea take part in the multilateral talks,” said South Korean Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun (Hwang Jang-jin, Korea Herald, May 1).

North Korea, meanwhile, said if Washington played its “usual tricks” the door could be opened to “extraordinary measures,” according to Western diplomats who were briefed on the talks by a Chinese Foreign Ministry official (MSNBC.com, May 1).

Pyongyang also warned that sanctions against the isolated communist nation could be a “green light for war,” the Financial Times reported.

During talks in London yesterday, British Foreign Office Minister Bill Rammell warned his North Korean counterpart Choe Su Hon that Pyongyang could face economic sanctions if it continues with its nuclear weapons development (Ward/Adams, Financial Times, April 30).

Choe would not discuss North Korea’s earlier nuclear weapons claims, but Rammell said he was encouraged by the talks.

“The fact that they have engaged (with Washington) in the talks last week in Beijing and in discussions today is positive, and there have been some positive statements,” Rammell said.  “But I do believe, and I told Mr. Choe, that the North Koreans need to go much further.  There are still far too many questions left unanswered and far too much ambiguity in their position,” he added.

Pyongyang opened its first embassy in London yesterday.  The United Kingdom established a diplomatic presence in North Korea in July 2001 (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, May 1).

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NPT:  Nongovernmental Organizations Criticize U.S. Nuclear Policy at Forum

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

GENEVA — Nongovernmental organizations attending the 2003 meeting of the parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty have been saying directly what most governments have been hinting — that the nuclear weapons policies of the United States threaten the NPT (see GSN, April 30).

Addressing a meeting of the committee yesterday, and in numerous news conferences and side events, the NGOs said changes in U.S. strategies have the effect of integrating nuclear weapons more tightly into military doctrine and developing new weapons to implement those strategies, thus making nuclear weapons more useable.

Victor Sidel of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War said yesterday that U.S. policies “are designed to make the use of nuclear weapons more credible, by designing more ‘useable’ nuclear weapons and by integrating nuclear weapons into a broad spectrum of military capabilities.  This shift represents a repudiation of disarmament obligations under … the NPT and places new pressures on non-nuclear weapon states to acquire nuclear weapons.”

While all the nuclear weapons states were criticized for retaining these weapons and NATO was criticized for accepting the U.S. nuclear doctrine, nearly all of the ire was directed at the United States.  According to Rhianna Tyson of the Women's International League for Peace and Freedom, “The world’s first nuclear weapons state, the United States, is leading the backwards charge away from the unequivocal undertaking to eliminate nuclear weapons.”

Charges made by the NGOs included shortening the time the United States could resume nuclear testing, abrogating the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in order to develop missile defenses and space-based weaponry, threatening the first use of nuclear weapons even in response to a non-nuclear attack and developing new weapons and new ballistic missiles for delivering the weapons.

“It is all too obvious that the nuclear weapons states have failed to implement the practical, attainable 13-step nuclear disarmament plan, agreed to unanimously at the conclusion of the 2000 Review Conference, in some cases blatantly casting aside or repudiating its central elements,” Tyson said.

The 13 steps were part of the consensus agreement at the treaty’s 2000 review conference.  The steps include “an unequivocal undertaking by the nuclear weapon states to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals,” bringing the comprehensive test ban treaty into force, negotiating a ban on the production of weapons grade fissile materials, and a “diminishing role for nuclear weapons in security policies.”

U.S. Ambassador John Wolf said Monday that the NPT “is dangerously out of balance.  Disarmament continues,” while nonproliferation is weakened.

Jacqueline Cabasso of the U.S.-based Western States Legal Foundation responded, “They’ve got it exactly backwards. … They are working on the whole suite” of new nuclear weapons and “the use doctrine is there” in the Nuclear Posture Review and policy documents.

One type of weapon on which the NGOs focused is the earth-penetrating weapon, including the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator.  Such weapons are designed so that the missile burrows into the earth before the warhead explodes.  The goal is to destroy underground command centers and weapons sites while minimizing above ground damage.  Sidel said the development of penetrators and low-yield (10-kiloton range) weapons “would place additional — perhaps fatal — stress on the nonproliferation regime. … Furthermore, the use of low-yield nuclear weapons may lead to weakening the restraints against the use of nuclear weapons of greater yield.”  The fallout from such weapons would still be extensive, he said.

Kathy Wan Povi Sanchez said indigenous peoples around the world have already suffered “devastation” from nuclear weapons in the form of uranium mining, nuclear testing and waste disposal.  “We, indigenous peoples of the world, reiterate the call for measurable and verifiable cessation of scientific, technological, political and corporate activities that result in a threat to the Earth and her inhabitants,” said Sanchez, from the U.S. state of New Mexico.  “We need to redefine homeland security as healthy boundaries and sacred spaces.”

Hiroshima Mayor Tadatoshi Akiba also attended the forum.  “Given U.S. intransigence, other nuclear weapon states cling to their weapons, and several non-nuclear weapon states appear to be reevaluating the need for such weapons,” Akiba said.  “Therefore, it is incumbent upon the rest of the world … to stand up now and tell all of our military leaders that we refuse to be threatened or protected by nuclear weapons.  We refuse to live in a world of continually recycled fear and hatred.”

The NGOs are promoting the idea first raised by Secretary General Kofi Annan at the U.N. Millennium Summit in 2000 for an “international conference to identify ways of eliminating nuclear dangers of all kinds.”  Akiba offered Hiroshima as the site for such a conference in 2005 – the 60th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  He said this would be a central campaign by the World Conference of Mayors for Peace, which he said represents 539 cities and over 250 million people worldwide.

Other issues on the NGO agenda include prohibiting the use of depleted uranium weapons, a ban on testing ballistic missiles and missile defenses, a nuclear weapon-free zone on the Korean Peninsula and neighboring Northeast Asian countries and a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.

Greenpeace Distributes Deck Of Cards With Nuclear Powers, Facts

Besides seminars, prayer vigils and poetry readings, a more novel approach in making a point is a deck of cards being distributed by Greenpeace, modeled on the deck of cards being distributed by the United States in Iraq identifying the most-wanted members of the Saddam Hussein government.  Greenpeace’s cards instead show the photos of the heads of state of the nuclear powers — the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and Israel.  Other cards in the deck include facts such as “more than 200,000 people died in the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki” and “the latest U.S.-Russian nuclear disarmament treaty signed in 2002 will not involve the destruction of any nuclear weapons.”

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United States:  Energy Will Open Los Alamos Leadership to Competition

Troubled by revelations of internal fraud and theft, the U.S. Energy Department will open management of Los Alamos National Laboratory to bid when the current contract with the University of California concludes in 2005, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 4).

“The university bears responsibility for the systemic management failures that came to light in 2002.  Given that responsibility and the widespread nature of the problems uncovered at Los Alamos, I intend to open the management of Los Alamos to full competition when the current contract expires,” Abraham said.

The University of California will, however, be eligible to compete for the contract and Abraham rejected the idea that the decision was a “repudiation of an incumbent contractor.”

“The University of California will, of course, be eligible to take part in that competition and I strongly agree that it should be urged to do so,” he added (National Nuclear Security Administration release, April 30).

The university has run the laboratory for 60 years, since it was founded in World War II to build atomic bombs.

University officials have previously said that they would not compete for a contract, but university President Richard Atkinson said yesterday he would consider vying for the laboratory’s leadership.

“My instinct continues to be to compete — and to compete hard — in order to continue the university’s stewardship of excellence in science and innovation,” he said.

Some Los Alamos employees said the link to the university was an intrinsic part of the laboratory’s identity.

The connection is vital “to how we see ourselves, see ourselves as different from some of the production parts of the nuclear weapons complex,” said Geoff Reeves, a Los Alamos space scientist (Kenneth Chang, New York Times, May 1).

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International Response:  Former Nuclear Weapons Designer Wins Award for Nonproliferation Efforts

By Jim Wurst

Global Security Newswire

GENEVA — The annual Linus Pauling Centennial Award for Science, Peace or Health was awarded today at the United Nations to 1995 Nobel Peace Prize winner Joseph Rotblat, a nuclear physicist who worked on atomic bomb development during World War II before devoting himself to campaigning against nuclear weapons.

In accepting the award, Rotblat sharply criticized the United States, saying that while everyone can rejoice in the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, “the price we paid for this is far too high.”  The launching of a pre-emptive war is “a severe setback for those ... who believe morality and adherence to rules of law should be our guiding principles,” he added.  “The danger of this policy can hardly be over-emphasized.”

“Somehow I do not see the American people accepting the role assigned to them by the clich? that has hijacked the administration,” he continued.  “Public opinion is bound to turn when the dangers associated with the current policies become apparent ... above all, in the nuclear doctrines pursued by the Bush administration.”

“The Bush administration [strategic doctrines] make nuclear weapons a tool with which to keep peace in the world,” as opposed to holding them as a last resort, Rotblat said.  “The new Nuclear Posture Review spells out a strategy which incorporates nuclear capability in conventional war strategy,” he said.  “Nuclear weapons have now become a standard part of military strategy to be used in a conflict just like any other high explosive.  This is a dangerous shift in the whole rationale for nuclear weapons.”

The people of the world “should call on the United States to abandon its unilateralist policies and for the Security Council of the United Nations to be recognized as the sole authority in initiating military operations for the resolution of conflicts,” he said.  “The main goal [is] the creation of [a] nuclear weapon-free world,” he added.

Rotblat, a Pole, is an emeritus physics professor at the University of London and the emeritus president of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, which he helped found and which shared his Nobel Prize.  During World War II, he worked on atomic bomb development at the University of Liverpool and at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States, but when it became clear that Germany was not working on an atom bomb, he became the only scientist to resign from the project before the bomb was tested.

The award is named after double Nobel Prize winner Linus Pauling.  The presentation took place at a seminar of the Geneva Forum, a joint initiative of the U.N. Institute for Disarmament Research, the Quaker U.N. office in Geneva and the Graduate Institute of International Studies’ Program for Strategic and International Security Studies.

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Smallpox:  GAO Says Floundering Smallpox Program Lacks Guidance

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. General Accounting Office today said the struggling national smallpox immunization program lacks direction and leadership (see GSN, April 22).

In its report, Smallpox Vaccination:  Implementation of National Program Faces Challenges, the GAO said the program is “unprecedented and complex,” and called on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to provide more guidance to state and local health officials.

When U.S. President George W. Bush announced the program in December, U.S. health officials said they hoped to immunize 500,000 medical personnel by the end of February and 10 million emergency workers immediately after.  To date, fewer than 34,000 health workers have received the vaccination.

CDC Director Julie Gerberding said the earlier goals could be unnecessary, and only 50,000 immunized health workers might be needed to prepare the country for a biological terrorism attack, according to the GAO report.

“She has indicated that as few as 50,000 would suffice but has not explained how CDC arrived at that number.  CDC has not said how these workers should be organized and distributed within the smallpox response teams and across the nation.  As of late April, CDC had yet to set new targets,” the report said.

A lack of leadership from top U.S. health officials has resulted in a disjointed national immunization effort, according to the report.

“Some jurisdictions have indicated that they are attempting to follow their original plans … others have said that they have begun to revise their targets downward for the first stage without waiting for a request from CDC,” the GAO said.

As the immunization program unfolded — and the turnout of volunteer health workers proved underwhelming — the CDC sought to lower expectations.  Health officials denied they were attempting to reach targets of 500,000 or 10 million immunized workers.  Officials also said the ultimate goal is not a number, but a level of readiness.  Public health experts have agreed with the CDC that the United States can be ready for a smallpox terrorist attack with fewer than 10 million immunized personnel, but they said a comprehensive response plan is needed in lieu of massive, widespread pre-attack vaccinations.

The GAO agreed that a plan is necessary, and missing.

“If estimates are reduced for the numbers and types of vaccinated health workers in smallpox response teams, CDC would need to provide guidance to ensure that smaller or fewer teams are organized and distributed in a manner that will provide adequate response capacity,” the GAO said.

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Smallpox II:  Bush Signs Smallpox Compensation Bill

U.S. President George W. Bush signed a smallpox vaccine compensation bill into law yesterday to reinforce public confidence in the stalled smallpox immunization program, Reuters reported (see GSN, April 14).

Fears of the vaccine’s side affects and the lack of compensation for those sickened or killed have crippled the national program.

Bush signed the bill without publicity, Reuters reported (Reuters/New York Times, April 30).

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Anthrax:  Scientists Decipher Anthrax Strain Genetic Code

Scientists at the Institute for Genomic Research in Maryland have deciphered the genetic code for a strain of Bacillus anthracis, which causes anthrax, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, April 8).

Institute scientists have mapped out the genetic code of the Ames strain of the anthrax bacterium, according to AP.  The new research, published today in Nature, could help the development of new vaccines and treatments against the disease.

The research provides a “much-expanded list of potential virulence genes,” said institute President Claire Fraser.  In addition, scientists discovered more than 600 genes with no known function, which might also play a role in the disease’s virulence, according to Fraser (Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, May 1). 

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Pakistan:  OPCW Approves Pakistani Fertilizer Plant

Inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which oversees the Chemical Weapons Convention, approved a Pakistani fertilizer plant yesterday after completing an inspection of the site, according to the Business Recorder (see GSN, April 30).

The OPCW team declared the Fauji Jordan Fertilizer plant to be “below weapon capability,” said Mohammed Ibad Khan, general manager of the plant.  He added that the OPCW team was satisfied with the plant’s facilities (Business Recorder, May 1).

Indian Army Claims Kashmir Militants Possess Chemical Weapons

Meanwhile, the Indian Army yesterday alleged that militant groups in the disputed region of Kashmir possess chemical weapons.

The Indian Army has received information during the past two to three months that militant groups in the region possess suspicious containers, a public relations officer for the Indian Northern Command said in a statement.  In addition, recent intelligence reports indicate that the militant groups have been discussing the use of chemical weapons  (The Statesman, May 1).

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