U.S. Response:  WMD Attack Training Exercise Begins

A massive U.S. homeland security training exercise designed to simulate WMD attacks conducted by terrorists in Chicago and Seattle is to begin today (see GSN, April 22).

The exercise — which will cost $16 million and be code-named “Top Officials 2” (TOPOFF2) — will begin with the simulated detonation today of a “dirty bomb” in downtown Seattle, resulting in more than 100 casualties, according to the New York Post.  Later this week, people in Chicago will begin reporting to area hospitals complaining of flu-like symptoms, which officials will learn is the result of a simulated pneumonic plague attack, the Post reported.

The five-day, $16 million exercise is expected to involve more than 8,000 U.S., state and local officials, as well as Canadian officials.  The terrorist group behind the simulated attacks, Group for the Liberation of Orangeland and the Destruction of Others, is based on al-Qaeda, according to the Post.  Under the exercise scenario, FBI counterterrorism agents are expected to capture the GLODO agents responsible for the attacks by the end of the week.

“Our objective is to save lives,” Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said (Brian Blomquist, New York Post, May 12).

Officials and homeland security experts have said that recurrent training is one of the best ways to prepare for a future possible terrorist attack.

“Most important, I think, we’re practicing a lot more now,” said Randall Larsen, director of the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security.  “We should never be exchanging business cards on the day of a big event, and we were doing a lot of that on 9/11,” he said (Tom Weir, USA Today, May 11).

Back to top

Iraq I:  U.S. WMD Search Team to Leave Iraq in June; “Dr. Germ” Detained

The U.S. military’s 75th Exploitation Task Force, which has been deployed in Iraq to search for weapons of mass destruction, is expected to end operations next month without finding any evidence of Iraqi WMD efforts, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, May 9).

Task force leaders no longer “think we’re going to find chemical rounds sitting next to a gun,” according to Army Col. Robert Smith, who leads the Defense Threat Reduction Agency site assessment teams.  “That’s what we came here for, but we’re past that,” he said.

The U.S. search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction will now be conducted by the Iraq Survey Group, a larger unit of scientific experts and intelligence officials than the task force, according to the Post.  That effort, however, is shaping up to be smaller that originally planned, according to the Post.

For example, the site survey teams will reduce their number of WMD and missile experts from six to two.  The Direct Support team, a DTRA nuclear special operations group, has already sent home a third of its original complement and plans to further reduce its staff by half.

“We thought we would be much more gainfully employed, or intensively employed, than we were,” said Navy Cmdr. David Beckett, who directs special nuclear programs for the team.

Only two of the 19 top WMD sites identified by the U.S. Central Command prior to the war remain to be searched, the Post reported.  Out of 68 top “non-WMD sites,” which are believed to have important clues that could aid in the search, 45 had been searched by last week without any finds.

Task force members explained their lack of results, in part, because of their slow advance into Iraq.  U.S. ground commanders sometimes kept task force teams away from the military front, and the task force itself had no helicopters of its own, according to the Post.

“My personal feeling is we waited too long and stayed too far back,” said Christopher Kowal, a computer forensics expert who worked for Mobile Exploitation Team Charlie until last week.

Task force members also said that the looting of suspect sites by Iraqis severely hindered the WMD hunt.  As of last week, U.S. troops had only secured 44 of the 85 top weapons sites in Baghdad and 153 of the 372 sites considered to be the most essential in the reconstruction of the country, the Post reported (Barton Gellman, Washington Post, May 11).

WMD Search Continues

Meanwhile, one of the task force’s teams, Mobile Exploitation Team Alpha, has discovered the strongest radiation source found so far in Iraq at an abandoned test range near the city of Amiriya, according to the New York Times.

On Friday, the team investigated the site and found eight poles connected to earth-covered concrete bunkers.  The team traveled to the site after receiving reports that coalition forces had found a large source of radiation in one of eight pits near the poles.  The initial report said that one of the pits was emitting radiation levels more than 1,000 times that of normal radiation levels, according to the Times.  When the team arrived at the site, it only found moderate levels of radiation at the bases of the poles.

After examining the poles, experts determined that they had been designed to raise and lower a radioactive source, believed to be cobalt 60, to expose troops and equipment to radiation, according to the Times.  According to international nuclear experts, the site had been used more than 10 years ago to expose troops to a simulated nuclear battlefield (Judith Miller, New York Times, May 12).

Dr. Germ in Custody

Two former Iraqi officials, including the infamous “Dr. Germ,” are now in U.S. custody, U.S. officials said today.

Rihab Taha, who has been dubbed Dr. Germ by the media, was the former head of Iraq’s biological weapons program.  U.S. officials believe Taha, who is No. 197 on the coalition’s most wanted list, may be able to assist the search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.

U.S. forces have also taken into custody Ibrahim Ahmad al-Sattar Muhammad al-Tikriti, former chief of staff of the Iraqi military and No. 11 on the U.S. list of 55 most wanted officials (CNN.com, May 12).

Rewards Offered

U.S. authorities in Iraq have issued a nationwide radio appeal for information that could help the search for Iraqi WMD efforts, according to the London Times.  The appeal offers a reward and anonymity for the informants.

“The reward you may get can improve your living standard,” the appeal said (Catherine Philp, London Times, May 12).

Sanctions

Experts among U.N. Security Council members are expected today to study a draft resolution introduced last week by the United States, United Kingdom and Spain to lift U.N. sanctions against Iraq.  Security Council ambassadors are expected to begin debating the resolution Wednesday.

After that meeting, “we will have a better assessment of where everybody is," U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Saturday.  “Initial reaction from capitals is everybody wants to move forward, a great deal of pragmatism, no refighting of the past, no screaming and shouting, if I could put it that way, but a lot of questions,” he said.

Russia said Saturday that it has begun consulting with other council members on the draft resolution.  During the council discussions on the resolution, Russia will again “underscore the need for the United Nations’ central role in this process,” Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov said (Russia Journal, May 11).

Back to top

Iraq II:  Former U.N. Inspector Calls for Improved Treatment of Iraqi Scientists

The United States should approach former Iraqi scientists and technicians as if they were “valuable witnesses,” instead of war criminals, to better obtain their cooperation in the U.S. search for evidence of Iraqi WMD efforts, a former U.N. weapons inspector wrote in a Washington Post commentary yesterday (see GSN, May 5).

“Why not treat them as war criminals?  Because when it comes to WMD, the top priority must be preventing proliferation — not punishing people,” wrote David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.  “Stopping the spread of these weapons is more important than putting scientists behind bars,” he added.

Many low- and mid-level Iraqi scientists want to help the United States and can provide information about Iraq’s past nuclear plans, efforts to deceive U.N. inspectors and illicit foreign procurement activities, according to Albright.  The scientists can also help U.S. forces gain control over any remaining unsecured Iraqi WMD assets, such as documents and equipment, he wrote.

In addition, the better the scientists and technicians are treated, the less likely it is that they will flee Iraq to possibly aid other states or terrorist groups in developing weapons of mass destruction, Albright wrote.  “If Pentagon teams use a confrontational approach, they could increase the risk that these scientists will go into hiding or leave Iraq,” he wrote (David Albright, Washington Post, May 11).

Back to top

North Korea:  Roh Wants Peaceful Resolution to Nuclear Crisis

South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun wants planned talks with U.S. President George W. Bush to focus on the countries’ common desire to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis peacefully, the Associated Press has reported (see GSN, May 8; Christopher Torchia, Associated Press/Yahoo!  News, May 12).

Roh will encourage Bush to issue a public promise to resolve the conflict peacefully, the according to the Washington Times.

“The mere thought of a military conflict with North Korea is a calamity for us,” Roh said.  “If possible, we think it is much more reasonable for us to induce North Korea to reform itself and to open up to the outside world,” he added.

South Korea is, however, “fully prepared and fully braced for a possible calamity,” Roh added (Fran Coombs, Washington Times, May 12).

“Previous South Korea-U.S. summits have been burdened by high expectations,” Roh said.  “I hope the talks will confirm our common approach to resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, and also the importance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance,” he added.

Cautioning that the talks will not produce “spectacular” results, Roh said that “on matters of detail, there are different points of view.  But on the big matters of principle, we are in accord” (Torchia, Associated Press/Yahoo! News).

A U.S. official said Washington is attempting to keep a unified approach to Pyongyang with South Korea and Japan.  Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is scheduled to visit Bush in Texas next week, the New York Times reported.

The other challenge, according to the official, is “coming up with the right mixture of a willingness to negotiate with a willingness to confront” (Sanger/Shanker, New York Times, May 11).

Back to top

Iran:  Washington, Tehran Talking in Geneva

As U.S. officials push accusations of Iranian nuclear development, Washington and Tehran have engaged in three rounds of secret talks in Geneva this year, USA Today reported (see GSN, May 9).

White House envoy Zalmay Khalilzad is reportedly heading the U.S. delegation in the discussions, which are set to resume next week.  Despite clandestine diplomatic contacts, the United States is pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency to censure Tehran for what Washington believes is a secret nuclear weapons development program.

The two countries have not had diplomatic relations in 23 years but the Iranian Parliament and public seem open to re-establishing ties, according to USA Today.

“The debate is taking place both in Iran and the United States,” an Iranian diplomat said.  “We are ready to discuss reestablishing relations on the basis of mutual respect,” the diplomat added.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell dismissed the idea of renewing diplomatic relations any time soon.

“The issue of diplomatic relations is not on the table right now for either side,” Powell said.  “But in terms of communicating with the Iranians, we have such ways, and we use them on a regular basis,” he added (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, May 11).

The burgeoning relationship, however, may have been damaged by the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the Wall Street Journal reported today.

Tehran believed the United States would attack the anti-Iranian militia Mujahedin-e-Khalq during the invasion while Washington asked Iran not to send fighters over its border with Iraq.  The White House has begun disarming the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, but Iran is attempting to influence the situation in Iraq, the Journal reported.

Iranian agents are telling Iraqis that Washington does not have staying power and U.S. influence will not be around for too much longer, according to a U.S. official.

“The message is, ‘Don’t get too close to the Americans,’” the official said.

The more U.S. President George W. Bush appears to threaten Iran in coming months, “the more active Tehran will be in Iraq to try to keep us tied down so we can’t focus on them,” said a U.S. intelligence official (David Cloud, Wall Street Journal, May 12).

Back to top

South Asia:  Armitage Meets With Top Indian Officials

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage met Saturday with top Indian officials, including Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, as part of an effort to help reduce tensions between India and Pakistan (see GSN, May 9).

Armitage said it would be India’s responsibility to assess Pakistan’s intentions with regard to the issue of cross-border terrorism in the disputed region of Kashmir, a potential flashpoint between the two countries.  He added that it was not the United States’ responsibility to give India assurances over Pakistan’s pledges to end cross-border terrorism (Amit Baruah, The Hindu, May 11).

Vajpayee Criticizes Sanctions

Meanwhile, Vajpayee yesterday said that technological sanctions against India were discriminatory because several countries “guilty of missile and nuclear proliferation” continue to receive aid.

India remains subject to sanctions imposed after it conducted its first nuclear test in 1974, as well as to sanctions imposed during the 1980s under the Missile Technology Control Regime, Vajpayee said.  He also complained that India was a victim of a “double standard.”

“Countries guilty of missile and nuclear proliferation have not attracted sanctions,” Vajpayee said.  “Some even continue to receive liberal economic assistance,” he said without naming specific countries.

India has never received recognition for its self-imposed restraint on nuclear- and ballistic missile-related transfers, Vajpayee said.  “We have denied ourselves many lucrative contracts and joint ventures,” he said (Reuters/Business Recorder, May 12).

During a series of meetings last week with U.S. officials, Indian National Security Adviser Birjesh Mishra called on the United States to provide India with dual-use technologies for its nonmilitary space and nuclear programs.

During his visit to the United States, which ended Saturday, Mishra told U.S. officials that India was seeking dual-use technologies for use in its scientific research and development programs and not for military purposes.  The Bush administration, however, said U.S. nonproliferation laws prevent the transfer of technologies to countries that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, such as India (Jawed Naqvi, DAWN, May 12).

Back to top

Al-Qaeda:  United States Questions Mohammed on Nuclear Links

U.S. intelligence officials are questioning Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, captured March 1 in Pakistan, about a possible link between the al-Qaeda terrorist group and Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, Time magazine reported this week (see GSN, May 1).

Mohammed — who has reportedly denied a link between Khan and al-Qaeda — was the third-highest official in al-Qaeda before his capture, according to Time.

Two years ago, Pakistan removed Khan from nuclear and military posts, and he is now constantly accompanied by a security detail, Time reported.  U.S. officials are concerned, however, that Khan can still disseminate nuclear information.

“He moves around very freely and has everything he needs inside his head, if not his briefcase,” said a U.S. official (Burger/McGirk, Time, May 19).

Back to top

United States:  Northrop Grumman Receives Two Contracts to Upgrade B-2 Bombers

Northrop Grumman has received two contracts to upgrade the nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bomber to carry smart bombs and to upgrade the bomber’s radar system, the Los Angeles Daily News reported last week (see GSN, Oct. 17, 2002).

The company has been awarded a $31.7 million contract to produce a bomb rack assembly that will allow the B-2 to be equipped with up to 80 500-pound guided munitions.  Under the contract, the company will convert 45 existing bomb rack assemblies to the new design.  In addition, Northrop Grumman has also been awarded an $85.9 million contract to continue a project to improve the B-2’s radar system (Jim Skeen, Los Angeles Daily News, May 8).

Back to top

CTBT:  Kuwait Ratifies Test Ban Treaty

Kuwait ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty May 6, according to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, bring the total number of treaty ratifiers to 101 (see GSN, May 6).  Kuwait is not one of the 44 nations that must ratify the treaty before it can enter in force, only 31 of which have done so (CTBT Organization release, May 6).

Back to top

Anthrax:  Pond Evidence Spawns New FBI Theory on 2001 Attacks

Pieces of laboratory equipment recovered by the FBI from a pond near Frederick, Md., have led to a new theory in the bureau’s long-running investigation into the autumn 2001 anthrax attacks, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 7).

In December 2002 and January of this year, the FBI conducted two searches of a section of forest outside Frederick, using divers to investigate a set of ponds in the area.  In one pond divers recovered a clear box with holes that could accommodate gloves, as well as vials wrapped in plastic, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.

The recovered items have led to a new theory on how the the anthrax culprit might have prepared the attacks, according to the Post.  Some FBI officials have suggested that the person responsible could have placed dry envelopes and anthrax spores into a sealed airtight and waterproof box and then stood in the pond to fill the envelopes, the Post reported.  When the envelopes were filled, they could have then been placed inside layers of plastic sandwich bags and removed from the box.

By working in water, the person responsible for the attacks might have been able to protect himself from the spores, which can easily disperse in the air, according to the Post.  Some scientists have suggested that the FBI should test the sediment at the bottom of the pond for traces of anthrax spores.

The FBI now plans to drain one of the ponds to search for more discarded evidence, according to sources.  The bureau has notified the city of Frederick and the Maryland Natural Resources Department that it will begin the operation by June 1 (Marilyn Thompson, Washington Post, May 11).

Frederick Mayor Jennifer Dougherty yesterday said the FBI is interested in draining one of the ponds in the forest.

“They have probably found something that tickles their interest, which is why they keep coming back,” Dougherty said in an interview with the Washington Times.  “Obviously, they want to find other evidence.  And they think that, as I recall, they want to find other things being hidden by the muck,” she said (S.A. Miller, Washington Times, May 12).

The new theory has added to the FBI’s interest in former U.S. Army biologist Steven Hatfill, who has been the public focus of the bureau’s investigation into the anthrax attacks, according to the Washington Post.  Hatfill formerly lived in an apartment less than 10 miles from the ponds, the Post reported.

Hatfill’s attorney, Thomas Connolly, has denied that his client had anything to do with the anthrax attacks.  He said it would not be unusual for the FBI to find discarded laboratory equipment in the ponds near Frederick, where many research laboratories and biotech companies are located.  Connolly also said that someone operating a methamphetamine laboratory might have discarded the recovered equipment (Thompson, Washington Post).

Back to top

Smallpox:  U.S. Health Officials Contemplate Immunizations After Attack

The U.S. national smallpox immunization plan has effectively stalled, forcing local and regional officials to make plans for immunizing health workers primarily after a bioterrorist smallpox attack, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, May 7).

Although federal officials originally expected up to 500,000 health care workers to volunteer for the vaccine, only 35,000 have stepped forward so far and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now believes that 50,000 volunteers is a more realistic estimate, the Post reported.

“It’s kind of like war,” said Lynn Frank, a local Maryland official, adding, “You try one thing.  It doesn’t work, so you try something else.”

“As we get further and further away from the conflict in Iraq, it’s my sense there are going to be fewer and fewer people who will want to be vaccinated,” said Thomas Calhoun, medical director of the Emergency Health and Medical Services Administration for the Washington, D.C. Health Department.

Washington’s health department is looking for volunteers, retired doctors, pharmacists and dentists who could administer the vaccine after an attack.

“We’re going to go ahead and do this because the numbers are just not coming in, and if we’re going to wait — God forbid something happened — we wouldn’t have enough people trained,” Calhoun said.

Local health officials are now preparing to immunize the public on short notice, if the need arises.

State and local health departments have plans in place to receive additional shipments of the smallpox vaccine “on very short notice,” according to Lisa Kaplowitz, deputy commissioner for emergency preparedness and response at the Virginia Health Department.

“We’re talking hours,” Kaplowitz said (Christian Davenport, Washington Post, May 12).

Back to top

CWC:  Review Conference Reaffirms Treaty Goals

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — At a time when other major nonproliferation regimes appear the subject of contention, the first review conference of the Chemical Weapons Convention concluded positively Friday with unanimous approval of a political statement and a final review declaration (see GSN, May 7).

“They were able to complete everything in consensus and in good cheer, which indicates that there is really broad-based political support for the way in which the job is being carried out,” according to Peter Kaiser, spokesman for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which administers the treaty from The Hague.

“Things obviously could have gone in a different direction, so it’s being considered politically a success,” he said, referring to reported disagreements at a meeting of states parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which ran simultaneously in Geneva from April 28 through May 9 (see GSN, May 9).

According to an official from a major Western party, the documents contained “useful affirmations and reminders to states parties to fully meet their obligations” and a work program for discussions of further efforts to improve implementation of the treaty, particularly by taking into account legal issues and scientific and technological developments.

“I would regard those as good positive things coming out of a review conference, given the history of review conferences in the arena of weapons of mass destruction, we’ve got about a 50 percent hit rate in terms of actually achieving an agreement on any document whatsoever,” the official said, noting the failure to approve a protocol at the fifth Biological Weapons Convention review conference in December 2001 (see GSN, Dec. 10, 2001).

Reaffirmed Goals

In a three-page political statement, the treaty parties attending the conference at The Hague reaffirmed their support for the basic goals of the treaty, including the elimination of the possibility of future chemical weapons use, destruction of declared stockpiles and production capacities, support for chemical weapons nonproliferation and confidence-building measures, and establishment of a system for verification of compliance with the treaty’s provisions. 

They also offered support for complete national implementation of the treaty’s requirements, and of international cooperation and assistance in the peaceful uses of chemistry, a goal emphasized by developing states.

They also emphasized continuing the consideration of scientific and technological developments, which some experts have argued should prompt treaty parties to address the issue of the legality of chemical incapacitating agents (see GSN, April 30).  The political declaration made no specific reference to such agents, however.

A more detailed, 32-page final declaration may not be released until next week when treaty parties’ edits are finally incorporated into the text, Kaiser said.  That declaration is intended to make more specific recommendations for changes to how the treaty is implemented, which could receive consideration at the next annual treaty session.

Back to top