U.S. Response:  White House Raises Alert Level to “Orange”

Following the recent bombings in Saudi Arabia and Morocco, the Bush administration yesterday elevated the national terror alert level to “orange,” indicating a high risk of terrorist attacks (see GSN, April 16).

The change in the alert level, which had been previously at “yellow,” or “elevated,” was also based on recent electronic communications intercepted by U.S. intelligence agencies indicating that al-Qaeda or other terrorists might attempt to conduct an attack on the East Coast.  However, there are doubts about the credibility of that information, officials said.

“The United States intelligence community believes that terrorists continue to plan attacks against targets in the United States, and for this reason the alert level has been raised,” Homeland Security Undersecretary Asa Hutchinson said (Philip Shenon, New York Times, May 21).

Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge urged Americans to continue with their planned Memorial Day holiday activities, but to remain alert.

“For all Americans, we recommend that you continue with your plans for work or leisure,” Ridge said yesterday.  “However, your vigilance at large public events or other locations where crowds gather can help us disrupt terrorists’ plans.  If you see anything suspicious, do not hesitate to contact your local FBI office,” he said.

Shortly before the alert level was raised, the FBI issued a bulletin to U.S. law enforcement agencies that said a terrorist attack in the United States was possible.  The alert said the Saudi Arabia and Morocco attacks might have been “a prelude to an attack on the United States.”

“Although the FBI possesses no information indicating a specific threat in the United States, recipients should remain alert to potential terrorist operations in this country,” the bureau alert said (Mintz/Schmidt, Washington Post, May 21).

Some Bush administration officials said the decision to raise the alert level was based, in part, on a belief that the Saudi Arabia and Morocco bombings were evidence that al-Qaeda has begun a series of attacks to demonstrate that it still exists.

“More than anything else, it’s the belief that if al-Qaeda and its friends could carry out an attack in the United States, they would want to do it now,” a senior Bush administration official said.  “This is an analytical judgment that we’ve entered a dangerous period,” the official added (Shenon, New York Times).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Funds WMD Programs by Selling Drugs, Counterfeit Currency

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Since the late 1970s, North Korea has produced and trafficked millions of dollars worth of heroin and methamphetamines throughout Northeast Asia to gain badly needed hard currency to help fund its military, a high-ranking North Korean defector told a Senate Governmental Affairs subcommittee yesterday (see GSN, May 16).

Two North Korean defectors — a former high-ranking official and a missile engineer testifying under the alias Lee Bok Koo — appeared before the Financial Management, Budget and International Security Subcommittee.  They said North Korea has raised money through illicit export programs, which include trade in counterfeit currency and arms sales, as well as drug exports.  U.S. officials and experts told the committee that the funds gained through these illicit exports are channeled into Pyongyang’s military efforts, including its WMD programs.

“North Korea is essentially a criminal syndicate with nuclear bombs,” said subcommittee Chairman Peter Fitzgerald (R-Ill.).  “The role of a government is to protect its citizens from criminals.  But, in the case of North Korea, it appears the government is the criminal,” he said.

Every month, North Korea produces one ton each of heroin and methamphetamine, said the former high-ranking North Korean official, who testified behind a screen after entering the chamber wearing a black hood to protect his identity.  North Korea began its heroin production efforts in the late 1970s and stepped up its program in the late 1980s when a local province party committee established an experimental poppy farm near the town of Yonsah in the Hamkyung Province, the former official said.  Later, poppy fields were cultivated at several other collective farms throughout North Korea, with the entire crop going to the regime to be processed into heroin, he said.

In late 1997, Pyongyang ordered that all North Korean collective farms had to allocate 25 acres each to poppy production beginning in 1998, the former official said.  U.S. satellite imaging missions over North Korea in the mid- and late-1990s, however, could not detect wide-scale poppy production, said William Bach, director of the of the Office of African, Asian and European Affairs in the U.S. State Department’s International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs Bureau.  The former North Korean official said he was “flabbergasted” that the United States had been unable to detect the extent of North Korea’s poppy production.

All poppy plants produced since the late-1990s in North Korea are sent to a pharmaceutical plant in Chungjin City to be produced into heroin under the supervision of as many as eight Thai drug experts, the former official said.  “This is all done under the direct control and strict supervision of the central government,” he said. 

In addition, North Korea began in 1995 to import significant quantities of ephedrine, a crucial ingredient in methamphetamine production, Bach said.

After production, North Korean heroin is packaged into boxes containing 330 grams of the drug and marked with a Thai label, the former official said, adding that methamphetamine is packed in 1-kilogram boxes with no label.  The drugs are then exported throughout Northeast Asia, including China, Hong Kong, Russia and the “major market” of Japan, for up to $15,000 per kilogram, the former official said.

In addition, there are also reports that North Korea is re-exporting heroin produced in Southeast Asia, Bach said.

“North Korea must be the only country on Earth to run a drug production-trafficking business on a state level,” the former official said in his prepared testimony.

Since 1976, there have been at least 50 arrests and drug seizures involving North Koreans in more than 20 countries, Bach said.  A number of the arrests involved either North Korean diplomats or intelligence agents, according to a fact sheet prepared by the Congressional Research Service.  There are no reports, however, of North Korean heroin and methampheatmine exports making their way into the United States, Bach said.

Missile Trade

In addition to its illegal drug exports, North Korea has also pursued a vigorous ballistic missile export program, according to Lee, the former North Korean missile scientist who also testified behind a screen to protect his identity.  He described for the subcommittee one such export that he was personally involved with — the transport and demonstration of a missile guidance vehicle to Iran.  In exchange, North Korea received 220,000 tons of crude oil, he said.  After the trip to Iran, Lee said, North Korea increased its production of the demonstrated missile guidance vehicle, with nine of them ultimately being exported to Arab countries. 

Lee also said North Korea’s missile program is “entirely dependent” on foreign imports, with almost 90 percent of missile-related items being smuggled in from Japan.  Involved in the smuggling effort is the General Association of Korean Residents, which represents Koreans residing in Japan, Lee said.  The group uses a passenger ship to smuggle in missile-related items, he said, adding that such shipments arrive every three months.

The association has denied such allegations, saying it only transports supplies and humanitarian aid to North Korea.

“The General Association of Korean Residents has never once been involved in such activity,” association officials told Agence France-Presse today.

Where Does the Money Go?

The capture last month of a North Korean vessel attempting to smuggle 50 kilograms of heroin into Australia “heightens concerns that North Korean officials may be using illicit trading activities to provide much-needed hard currency to fund its army and weapons of mass destruction programs,” said Andre Hollis, deputy assistant defense secretary for counternarcotics.

The income Pyongyang receives from its illicit export programs far outweighs any it receives from legitimate exports, according to Larry Wortzel of the Heritage Foundation.  Citing media reports, he told the subcommittee that in 2001, North Korea’s legitimate exports totaled $650 million, while estimates of its income from drug and missile sales ranged from $1 billion to $1.5 billion.

According to Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute, an apparatus of the North Korean Workers’ Party known as Bureau 39 oversees much of Pyongyang’s illicit narcotics trade.  This would suggest that the hard currency obtained through such exports would be directed to Pyongyang’s top priorities, including WMD-related research, Eberstadt said. 

Another concern is that the same network of North Korean officials currently involved in illicit narcotics and counterfeiting operations could also distribute nuclear materials throughout the world, Wortzel said.  “North Korea’s behavior would be much more deadly if, instead of drugs and counterfeit money, Kim Jong Il was shipping weapon-grade nuclear material or nuclear weapons to terrorists and other failed states,” he said.

While North Korea’s illicit exports do pose concerns for the United States and the international community as a whole, stopping them will not necessarily have an impact on North Korea’s WMD programs, said Robert Gallucci of Georgetown University.  If North Korea has placed a high value on the acquisition of fissile materials, as is currently believed, then the lack of income from illicit trade practices will not stop its efforts, he said.

“Moreover, there is no reason to believe that Pyongyang would not also make brutal trade-offs against the need of the civilian sector to fund the nuclear weapons program,” Gallucci said.

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Iraq:  Washington and IAEA Negotiate Agency’s Return

The United States has begun negotiating with the International Atomic Energy Agency on arrangements for agency teams to return to Iraq to determine what materials may be missing from Iraqi nuclear sites, a U.S. State Department official said yesterday (see GSN, May 20).

The U.S.-IAEA talks, being held the agency’s headquarters in Vienna, are being held in the context of the agency’s responsibilities under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and are separate from U.N. Security Council negotiations over a new resolution on Iraq, the State official said (see related GSN story, today).

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld indicated yesterday that he supported a return of IAEA inspectors to Iraq, according to the Washington Post.  During a Pentagon press conference, Rumsfeld said he had discussed the issue with Army Gen. Tommy Franks, head of the U.S. Central Command.  Franks’ “attitude is he has no problem with their going in and that’s been communicated within our government,” Rumsfeld said.

An IAEA official said the agency teams being prepared to return to Iraq are trained to determine not only what may be missing from Iraqi nuclear sites, but to also determine where missing items may have gone (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, May 21).

Radioactive Materials Missing

Meanwhile, approximately 20 percent of the radioactive materials stored at the Tuwaitha complex — the main site in Iraq’s former nuclear program — are missing, according to the Associated Press.

It is unknown how many storage barrels, which had been previously inspected and sealed by the IAEA, are missing from the site, AP reported.  A U.S. nuclear assessment team that began a survey of the complex Monday found radioactive patches of ground at the site where it is believed that looters dumped materials.

“We found no radiation outside except for in two small spots where some materials were probably dumped,” said Col. Tim Madere, a specialist in unconventional weapons in the Army’s V Corps.

Most radioactive materials housed at the Tuwaitha complex, however, remain secure, Madere said.  “Eighty percent of the barrels are where they were before,” he said (Dafna Linzer, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, May 21).

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Iran:  Bush Administration Unsure How to Handle Tehran, Expert Says

While some senior Bush administration officials have said Iran poses an equal or greater threat to the United States than Iraq did, they are unsure as to the best way to handle the situation, Knight Ridder News Service reported today (see GSN, May 16).

The unexpected success Iran has had in its nuclear efforts, combined with Tehran’s links to terrorism and other developments, have led to a consensus within the Bush administration that Iran is a major threat, a longtime Iran expert said.  Administration officials, however, “haven’t yet figured out what they’re going to do about it,” the expert said.

One major difficulty in dealing with Iran is the divided nature of its government, Bush administration officials said.  While Iranian President Mohammad Khatami and his supporters in the Iranian Parliament deny their country supports terrorism, the clerical regime that holds ultimate power in Tehran and the Revolutionary Guard continue to support terrorist groups, according to Knight Ridder.

“When we ask the Iranians we talk to about these activities, they say they don’t know anything about them,” a senior U.S. official said.  “The ones who do know about them are not the ones we talk to,” the official said.

The best approach for the United States to take with Iran is a policy of “managed tensions,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the U.S. Defense Department’s National Defense University.  Under such a policy, the United States would cooperate with Iran on issues of common interest, while opposing Tehran in other areas.

“Despite themselves, the administration has sort of stumbled onto this policy,” Takeyh said (Infield/Strobel, Knight Ridder/San Jose Mercury News, May 21).

Iran Denies Harboring Al-Qaeda

Meanwhile, the United States has been in contact with Iran over the alleged presence of al-Qaeda operatives in Iran, warning Tehran that it must do more against terrorism, U.S. officials said Monday.  There is evidence that al-Qaeda’s operations chief, Saif al-Adel, is currently in Iran and may have been involved in the recent set of bombings in Saudi Arabia, senior U.S. sources said (see GSN, May 15).

Iran yesterday denied such allegations.

“In case of confronting al-Qaeda, Iran will act according to its programs and within the U.N. framework, as it did in extraditing the operatives of the group to their countries of origin that in several cases included Western states,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi said.  “Iran is ‘very serious’ in confronting al-Qaeda and the likes of the network,” he said (CNN.com, May 20).

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United States:  Senate Allows New Nuclear Weapons Research

U.S. Senate Republicans yesterday turned back a Democratic-led effort to stop the Bush administration from research and developing low-yield nuclear weapons, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, May 20).

The effort to maintain Congress’ 10-year ban on research into low-yield nuclear weapons was voted down, 51-43, but the Washington Post reported that Democrats today would seek a compromise to allow research but no development or production (Helen Dewar, Washington Post, May 21).

Defense researchers are already investigating the “bunker-busting” nuclear weapons, but Democrats sought to cut the $15.5 million the Pentagon wants to further the work (Vicki Allen, Reuters, May 21).

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said the new research was necessary to send a message.

“The idea that we should not be allowed to study such a weapon is not a good idea,” he said, while touting the potential benefit in destroying deeply buried targets that may house chemical and biological weapons.

Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, agreed with this assessment.

“The threat, in many cases, is going deep underground … the threat is also going to chemical, biological weapons, and we know that.  There’s a greater and greater proliferation.  And so we’ve got to study the effects of how you might deal with these weapons,” he said.  Myers maintained that the effort was only a study and said the Pentagon did not intend to develop the weapons.

“It’s a study.  It seems like a very prudent thing to do.  It has nothing to do with the development or the fielding or even the employment of these types of weapons,” he said (Defense Department transcript, May 20).

Democrats, however, did not believe the Defense Department assertions that the research would not lead to weapons development.

“Baloney,” said Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.).  “Does anyone really believe that?” she asked (Dewar, Washington Post).

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Iraq:  U.S. Analysts Conclude Iraqi Trailers Were Definitely Intended for Biological Weapons

U.S. analysts have determined that two trailers recovered in Iraq were designed to be mobile biological weapons laboratories, but the experts found no traces of biological agents within the trailers or evidence that they ever produced such agents, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, May 14).

Intelligence analysts working in the United States and Baghdad reached their conclusions after analyzing — and later dismissing — alternative theories as to how the trailers could have been used, senior Bush administration officials said.  The findings were presented to the White House yesterday.

“The experts who have crawled over this again and again can come up with no other plausible legitimate use,” a senior U.S. official said.

In their paper, the analysts described the trailers as an “ingeniously simple, self-contained bioprocessing system,” an official said.  The paper rejected alternative theories for the trailers’ intended use, such as producing hydrogen gas for weather balloons, germs for agricultural biopesticides, or regenerated rocket fuel, according to the Times.

The trailer that was analyzed in greatest detail was thoroughly cleaned with an unidentified caustic agent, making it impossible to determine whether or not it had ever produced biological agents, officials in Iraq and the United States said.

“It may have, we don’t know,” a senior Bush administration official said.  “What we know is that it is equipped to do that,” the official added.

Regardless of whether they were actually used to produce biological weapons, the trailers violated U.N. Security Council resolutions, a senior Bush administration official said.

“It was surely capable of producing biological weapons agent,” the senior administration official said.  “Iraq never told the United Nations that it had made such units.  Why would you have a covert program for filling weather balloons?” the official added (Miller/Broad, New York Times, May 21).

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Smallpox:  Study Shows Vaccine Offers Longtime Residual Protection

As many as 150 million Americans could still be partially protected by smallpox immunizations they received decades ago, according to a preliminary study released yesterday at a meeting of the American Society for Microbiology in Washington (see GSN, May 12).

As the federal government attempts to inoculate health care workers across the country to prepare for the possibility of smallpox bioterrorism, up to 150 million U.S. residents may already have some degree of immunity, USA Today reported.  More than 90 percent of people aged 36 to 96 have been vaccinated at least once.

Antibodies were present in 90 percent of the 306 people tested in the study, according to researcher Mark Slifka of the Oregon Health and Science University.  The level of antibodies was fairly consistent in the subjects, whose vaccinations span as far back as 1928. 

However, the study showed that the level of white blood cells, also known as T-cells, declined over time.  Both antibodies and T-cells are needed for full protection. 

Eight to 15 years after immunizations the level of white blood cells dropped by half, Slifka said, but “if you begin with very high T-cell levels that could still be a large number.”

Slifka said people who have received the vaccination twice show greater immunity, but additional innoculations appear to provide no further protection (Anita Manning, USA Today, May 21).

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Anthrax:  Pentagon Personnel, U.S. Soldiers Try to End Mandatory Vaccinations

The U.S. Defense Department must stop inoculating soldiers with the anthrax vaccine because it is still in an “investigational” stage and is being used without approval, according to attorneys for six U.S. military officers and Pentagon personnel said yesterday (see GSN, March 26).

The six are asking a U.S. District Court to issue a preliminary injunction preventing the Pentagon from administering the anthrax vaccine unless the recipients are informed of the potential side-effects and give consent, or if the president issued a waiver.  Such regulations are necessary for drugs still under investigation, the plaintiffs’ attorneys said.

“In some cases, they’re not even told it’s going to be an anthrax vaccination,” said John Michels Jr., an attorney for the plaintiffs.

Attorneys for the two defendants in the case — the Pentagon and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration — have said the anthrax vaccine has been an accepted preventive measure for years.  The Pentagon does concede, though, that severe harmful reactions develop in approximately one in 100,000 vaccinations, the Washington Times reported.  At least 600,000 employees in the Defense Department have received the vaccination, and officials say they plan to immunize each of the 2.4 million members of the military.

“There are risks with all vaccines, your honor,” said Ronald Wiltsie, a Justice Department attorney who is representing the defendants.  “The risks here are no greater than a tetanus shot or MMR [measles, mumps, rubella],” he said (Patrick Badgley, Washington Times, May 8).

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United States:  U.S. Army to Use Warm Water to Dispose of Pine Bluff Arsenal Chemical Agents

The U.S. Army plans to dispose of thousands of gallons of chemical weapon precursor components currently stored at the Pine Bluff Arsenal in Arkansas using warm water, the Pine Bluff Commercial reported today (see GSN, Dec. 10, 2002).

Larry Friedman, binary project manager for nonstockpile chemical material, outlined plans to destroy the arsenal’s quantities of methylphosphonyl diflouride (DF) and diisopropylaminoethyl methyl phosphonite (QL) for area residents at a public meeting yesterday.  DF and QL are precursor chemicals that form the nerve agents GB and VX, respectively, when mixed with other chemicals, according to the Commercial. 

The Pine Bluff Arsenal currently stores 50,000 canisters of DF and 300 55-gallon drums of DF and QL, of which 293 contain QL, according to Friedman.  Both chemical are precursors: alone neither is a weapon, but combined they turn deadly. 

The Army will use a process called hydrolysis to dispose of the chemicals, which involves mixing them with warm water to a concentration of less than 1,000 parts per million.  Once that is accomplished, the mixture will then be taken to an off-site commercial disposal facility where it will be further diluted.

The current destruction schedule calls for the chemicals to be destroyed by late 2005, Friedman said.  The DF stockpiles will be destroyed first in a process expected to last about eight weeks.  The QL stockpiles will then be destroyed during a two-week period (Scott Loftis, Pine Bluff Commercial, May 21).

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U.S. Plans:  Missile Defense Justification Released by White House

In a policy paper released yesterday, the White House described its rationale for developing a national missile defense network, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, May 19).

The National Policy on Ballistic Missile Defense Fact Sheet lays out U.S. President George W. Bush’s desire to protect the United States against missiles carrying chemical, biological or nuclear weapons with defenses that will cost more than $8 billion per year and will probably top $9 billion in fiscal 2004 alone, according to the Post.

The White House directive was also intended to provide a more formal and complete account of Bush’s missile defense push, administration officials said.  Last year, Bush signed a classified version of what was fundamentally the same document prior to his missile defense announcement in December (see GSN, Dec. 17, 2002).  Administration officials have kept close hold on the directive, known as National Security Presidential Directive 23, while developing plans for its release (Bradley Graham, Washington Post, May 21).

The document does not provide any significant deviation from previous administration statements, but it does note that U.S. missile defenses will be continuously upgraded, the New York Times reported.

“The United States will not have a final, fixed missile defense architecture,” but will develop an “initial set of capabilities that will evolve to meet the changing threat,” the directive said.

The White House also expressed its desire to provide missile defenses to allies, according to the document.

“The defenses we will develop and deploy must be capable of not only defending the United States and our deployed forces, but also friends and allies,” the directive says.

Russian Collaboration

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ivanov repeated his country’s offer to collaborate on a missile defense effort.  He said, however, that cooperation would require “the preservation of each side’s intellectual property, the demilitarization of space and total transparency regarding missile defense” (see GSN, May 15; David Sanger, New York Times, May 21).

Ivanov is scheduled to visit the United States this week to meet with U.S. officials, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, May 21).

“We are prepared to talk with the United States on the theme of cooperation in the field of anti-missile defense, but attached to the fulfillment of a number of conditions,” he said.

He also warned that developing a system would take “decades.”

“Tangible results cannot be expected within a year or two,” Ivanov said (Associated Press/San Jose Mercury News, May 21).

Export Controls May Be Eased

U.S. officials are also investigating the possible easing of export controls on missile technology, according to the Associated Press.

“As part of our efforts to deepen missile cooperation with friends and allies, the United States will seek to eliminate impediments to such cooperation,” the report says.

Under existing rules, it is difficult to share missile technology with most U.S. allies, AP reported.

“We will review existing policies and practices governing technology-sharing and cooperation on missile defense, including U.S. export control regulations and statutes,” according to the White House policy statement.

A Bush administration official said the effort was “far from a decision.”  Arms control proponents, however, criticized the proposed move.

“It is a silly trade-off.  It shows the administration is willing to compromise international controls to transfer missile technology” to further its missile defense goals, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association (Tom Raum, Associated Press/Newsday, May 21).

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