Iraq:  Extensive Testing Planned for Suspected Mobile Biological Laboratory

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The United States plans to conduct an intensive and thorough examination of a suspected mobile biological laboratory recently recovered in Iraq, a U.S. Defense Department official said yesterday (see GSN, May 7).

The suspect trailer, which resembles the mobile biological facilities Secretary of State Colin Powell described during a February U.N. Security Council presentation, was seized at a Kurdish checkpoint in mid-April, said Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Stephen Cambone.  A number of pieces of equipment onboard the recovered trailer are similar to the facilities described by Powell, such as a fermenter, gas cylinders and gas recovery systems, Cambone said.

“Interestingly enough, the gas recovery systems really are not necessary for, and not normally used for, legitimate biological processes,” Cambone said during a Pentagon press briefing. 

Initial analyses by U.S. and British technical experts have determined that the recovered trailer “does not appear to perform any function” other than to produce biological agents, Cambone said.  The trailer appears to have been cleaned, however, with a caustic solution before it was recovered, leading to a need for more intensive testing to determine its actual purpose, he said.

U.S. specialists will probably dismantle the trailer to enable them to test difficult-to-reach surfaces, Cambone said.  “So it will be another considerable period of time before the next round of testing comes back and we get some results,” he added.

The suspected mobile biological facility is the latest find in the ongoing U.S. search for evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.  So far, U.S. troops have investigated 70 of the 600 WMD-related suspect sites in Iraq that were identified before the war, Cambone said.  In addition, U.S. troops have also visited 40 sites that have been identified through new information and tips recovered after the war, he said.

Some of the information used to determine new suspect sites to investigate has come from voluntary cooperation by Iraqi citizens, Cambone said.  He added that it was expected that “the level of voluntary cooperation will come up as the security situation improves and as the people in the country are more and more confident that the elements of the old regime are not going to wreak retribution.”

Although the trailer appears to be similar to those described by Powell in his Security Council presentation, Cambone refused to say if the trailer represented conclusive proof of Iraqi WMD efforts.  He was confident, however, that U.S. forces would eventually find such evidence.

“As time goes by and the more we learn, I’m sure we’re going to discover that the WMD programs are as extensive and as varied as the secretary of state reported in his February address,” Cambone said.  “I think we’re going to find that they had a weapons of mass destruction program,” he said.

United States Drops Sanctions

Meanwhile, U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday removed some U.S. sanctions against Iraq.

Bush announced the suspension of the 1990 Iraqi Sanctions Act during a White House press conference with visiting Spanish President Jose Maria Aznar.  Bush also said he had ordered U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow to relax sanctions on U.S. companies and citizens conducting business in Iraq related to humanitarian efforts and the country’s reconstruction. 

In addition, the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain plan to introduce “soon” a new Security Council resolution to lift U.N.-imposed sanctions against Iraq, Bush said.

“The regime that the sanctions were directed against no longer rules Iraq,” Bush said.  “No country in good conscience can support using sanctions to hold back the hopes of the Iraqi people.”

Bush said the Security Council appears to be receptive to the new resolution and is ready to work to improve the humanitarian situation in Iraq.

“We believe there is a mood to work together to achieve a resolution that will expedite the reconstruction of Iraq,” Bush said.  “The read from at least our diplomats at the United Nations is that the kind of atmosphere that existed prior to the war has changed, and that people now want to work together for the good of the Iraqi people,” he said.

Russia, however, has often indicated that U.N. sanctions cannot be lifted against Iraq until it is determined to be free of weapons of mass destruction as called for in previous U.N. resolutions.  According to reports, U.S Assistant Secretary of State Kim Holmes met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov today in Moscow to discuss the U.S. proposal to end the sanctions.

Fedotov yesterday reiterated Russia’s position that U.N. inspectors should first verify Iraq’s WMD disarmament before sanctions can be lifted. 

“Russia wants the burden of the sanctions to be eased as soon as possible, which should be done in line with existing U.N. Security Council resolutions,” Fedotov was quoted by Interfax as saying.

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North Korea:  U.S. Satellites See Signs of Plutonium Reprocessing

The United States has detected smoke coming from a North Korean nuclear facility, which could be a sign that Pyongyang has begun reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods, a South Korean official said today (see GSN, May 7).

U.S. officials have provided South Korea with a satellite photograph of the smoke plume, the Associated Press reported.

Intelligence officials have not detected other signs of reprocessing, such as chemical traces or heat releases, according to the official (Daniel Cooney, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, May 8).

“We don’t have confirmation that they are reprocessing on a large scale,” but small scale reprocessing is possible, a senior U.S. intelligence official said (David Sanger, New York Times, May 8).

“It is true that signs have been detected in late April, but no additional activities or unusual movement had been confirmed since,” the South Korean official said (Cooney, Associated Press/Yahoo!News).

Top White House foreign policy advisers met yesterday to discuss the next U.S. move in the Korean nuclear crisis, and officials said the United States would probably meet with North Korean officials for another round of talks despite the reprocessing activity, the New York Times reported.

Officials previously did not believe North Korean reprocessing had begun, but the reassessment came after national security adviser Condoleezza Rice ordered an intelligence review, which was delivered to the White House in mid-April, according to the Times.

The new information will probably change U.S. President George W. Bush’s approach to the crisis, the Times reported.

“It means we don’t have forever to solve this problem,” a senior U.S. official said (Sanger, New York Times).

Japan Contemplated Pre-Emptive Attack

Ten years ago, Japanese officials examined the possibility of a pre-emptive air attack on a North Korean military facility to prevent a missile attack, Agence France-Presse reported today.

The study was conducted after Pyongyang launched a missile into the Sea of Japan, but was scuttled after Japanese officials agreed that they did not have the proper aircraft at their disposal to achieve success in the mission (Agence France-Presse/Hindustan Times, May 8).

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United States I:  Nuclear Weapon Research Survives First Round of Budget Negotiations

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives failed yesterday in initial attempts to defeat or amend controversial legislation that would increase U.S. nuclear test readiness and permit research and development of new nuclear weapons (see GSN, April 9).

The attempts were made at a subcommittee markup session of the fiscal 2004 defense authorization bill introduced by House Armed Services Committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.).  The full committee is scheduled to consider the language next week.

The Strategic Forces Subcommittee, consisting of eight Republicans and six Democrats, rejected an amendment offered by Representative Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) to prohibit fiscal 2004 funds from being used for research and development of new nuclear weapons.  The language would have restricted how $6 million requested by the administration for an “Advanced Concepts Initiative” would have been spent.

The committee also rejected a proposal by Tauscher and Representative John Spratt (D-S.C.) to require the president to provide at least 18 months advance notice to Congress before conducting a test.

The amendment also would have required the administration to explain why a test was necessary, including why other means of evaluation were insufficient, and an assessment of the geopolitical and strategic consequences of resuming the test.

Language contained in the bill, but defeated last year, would shorten the projected test preparation time from the current 32 months to 18 months.

Spratt also unsuccessfully attempted to modify controversial language in the bill to repeal a 1994 law he co-authored prohibiting research and development on nuclear weapons with yields below five kilotons.

The Bush administration has argued that the repeal is needed to explore the possibility of developing low-yield nuclear weapons to destroy chemical and biological facilities and for striking deeply buried, hardened bunkers.

Spratt offered a proposal would have barred development but not research.  He withdrew the amendment after receiving an assurance to work with committee members to find other compromise language.

The committee did pass, though, an amendment offered by Representative Silvestre Reyes (D-Texas) that would withhold 60 percent of money authorized for enhancing nuclear testing readiness until the Pentagon provides a report required by the defense authorization bill last year.

Kathryn Crandall, an arms control analyst with the nongovernmental organization British American Security Information Council, says the outcome of the markup could signal an uphill battle for Democrats interested in blocking the legislation.

“The outcome and debate of the subcommittee’s markup is certainly indicative of formidable challenges that the Democrats will face in the House and in the Senate,” she said.

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South Asia I:  India Declines Pakistani Offer to Denuclearize

Rejecting a Pakistani proposal for a nuclear weapon-free South Asia, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee today said India would keep its nuclear stockpile, but hoped to avoid a regional arms race (see GSN, May 6).

Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan said Monday that Pakistan would eliminate its nuclear weapons if India reciprocated.

Speaking to the Indian Parliament today, Vajpayee said, “We don’t accept Pakistan’s proposal … as Pakistan’s nuclear program is India-specific. … But we are concerned about other states as well.”

“We can change friends, but we can’t change neighbors,” he said, adding, “We have to defend ourselves in case of a threat” (Beth Duff-Brown, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, May 8).

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United States II:  House Subcommittee Boosts Bomber Funding

A U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee yesterday added $20 million to the defense authorization bill to keep active 23 B-1 bombers that are currently slated for retirement, CongressDaily reported today (see GSN, Aug. 12, 2002).

The U.S. Air Force had planned to reduce its fleet of the strategic bombers from 92 to 60 by Oct. 1, but the new funding from the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee would keep a total of 83 B-1 bombers in service.

The subcommittee also authorized $100 million for research and development on a “next generation, follow-on stealth, deep-strike bomber,” according to subcommittee Chairman Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.).  Committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) has been pushing for such an aircraft this year (see GSN, Feb. 7; Molly Peterson, CongressDaily, May 8).

Air Force and Boeing officials said the B-1’s strong performance in Iraq and Afghanistan justifies reducing the number of planes to be retired and improving those that remain.

“I’ll be optimistic and say that (the B-1B’s war record) is going to basically improve the B-1’s long-term upgrade plan,” Parke said (Stephen Trimble, Aerospace Daily, May 7).

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South Asia II:  U.S. Delegation Meets With Pakistani Officials

A U.S. delegation headed by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage met today with Pakistani officials in Islamabad in an attempt to help reduce tensions between Pakistan and India (see GSN, May 7).

Armitage met with several senior Pakistani officials today, including Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali and Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kashuri, according Agence France-Presse.  He is expected to meet later today with Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

During his visit, Armitage is expected to pressure Pakistan to end its support of cross-border terrorism in the disputed region of Kashmir, a key source of tension between Pakistan and India, according to a Pakistani official.  “The Americans would like to raise the issue of sealing the Line of Control to block movement into Indian-controlled Kashmir,” a Pakistani Foreign Ministry official said (Rana Jawad, Agence France-Presse, May 8).

Meanwhile, the Pakistani military today declared that Pakistan will maintain its nuclear policy of “minimum deterrence” and will not engage in an arms race in India.

The declaration was made after a meeting yesterday of the National Command Authority, which oversees Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program.  The meeting, chaired by Musharraf, was called “to review progress of the country’s strategic program,” a statement said.

The command “reiterated that while retention of minimum deterrence was the cornerstone of Pakistan’s national security policy, Pakistan did not believe in an arms race,” the statement said (Agence France-Presse, May 8).

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U.S. Plans:  House Subcommittee Authorizes Fiscal 2004 Missile Defenses

The U.S. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces yesterday approved the fiscal 2004 defense authorization bill, approving the entire Bush administration request for ballistic missile defense but redirecting some funds to bolster theater missile defense systems, according to Aerospace Daily.

The subcommittee fully authorized the $9.1 billion administration request, according to Aerospace Daily.  It also transferred more than $280 million from “longer term payoff” programs, such as boost-phase missile defense systems, to “more near-term requirements, particularly in the area of theater missile defense,” according to subcommittee Chairman Terry Everett (R-Ala.).

The bill would add funds for Patriot missile interceptors, including $90 million to purchase 30 more Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptors than the 108 the White House had requested (see GSN, April 24).  The bill would also add almost $80 million for PAC-3 research and development, $10 million for PAC-2 research and $36 million to upgrade Patriot radar and communication systems.

The subcommittee approved an additional $37 million to accelerate the testing of the Theater High Altitude Area Defense system and fully funded the $626 million request for the Airborne Laser program, according to Aerospace Daily (see GSN, April 25).  In addition, the bill contains more than $20 million in additional funding to enhance the sea-based X-band radar the Missile Defense Agency is developing for use in a planned test bed to be deployed in the Pacific Ocean (see GSN, March 11). 

To cover the increases, the subcommittee cut funding to several programs, including a $150 million reduction to the administration’s $301 million request to fund the development of ground-, sea- and space-based boost-phase missile interceptors, Aerospace Daily reported (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily, May 8).

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United States:  Patriot Batteries Lacked Data Recording Systems, Officials Say

Some of the Patriot missile interceptor batteries used in the recent war with Iraq lacked data recorders needed to track their performance, while the recorders in other batteries were damaged, resulting in lost information, U.S. Army officers said this week (see GSN, April 24).

The Patriot systems were redesigned in 1995 to include optical disks and “embedded data recorders” to preserve tactical information, according to a fact sheet prepared by Raytheon, which produces the Patriot.  However, only some of the Patriot systems sent to the Middle East were equipped with the data recording systems, and of those, some were damaged due to wear, according to Army officials.

It is unknown what effect the lost data will have on the Army’s review of the Patriot’s performance during the Iraq war, according to the Boston Globe, but the review will continue, a senior U.S. commander said.  In some instances, hard-copy records will be used, said military officials, adding that such a system was out of date.

The hard copies, which include tape drives and printouts, amount to “an antiquated portion of our system,” said Maj. Gen. Stanley Green, commander of the Army’s Air Defense Artillery Center at Fort Bliss, Texas (Ross Kerber, Boston Globe, May 8).

Radars Could Have Played Role in Friendly Fire Incidents

Meanwhile, military investigators are examining whether tracking radars generated false signals that confused Patriot operators, leading to friendly fire incidents, according to officials. 

In two incidents during the recent war with Iraq, Patriot operators thought they were engaging enemy missiles, not aircraft, the officials said.  Some Army and industry experts believe that electromagnetic interference could have played a role in the confusion, according to the Washington Post.  Such interference could have resulted from the close proximity of multiple Patriot radars, along with other battlefield electronic systems, they said.

“This is the densest battlefield we’ve seen,” said Army Brig. Gen. Howard Bromberg, who headed U.S. air defenses during the war.  “I believe there could be something there.  That’s my personal belief,” he said (Bradley Graham, Washington Post, May 8).

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