U.S. Response I:  U.S. Senate Approves Expanded Surveillance Measures

The U.S. Senate yesterday voted 90-4 to approve legislation to expand the government’s ability to use secret surveillance techniques against suspects who are not thought to be members of known terrorist organizations, according to the New York Times (see GSN, April 9).

Under current law, U.S. officials must first establish a link between a suspect and a known terrorist group to obtain a secret warrant, the Times reported.

Yesterday’s vote was a result of a compromise between Senate Republicans, who wanted to make the 2001 Patriot Act permanent, and Senate Democrats who opposed such a measure.  Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch agreed to drop an amendment to the bill that would have repealed the sunset provisions in the Patriot Act, which would have caused the bill’s powers to expire in 2005 in exchange for Democrats abandoning some of their own amendments that Republicans opposed, according to the Times.

Hatch spokeswoman Margarita Tapia said the senator was satisfied with yesterday’s vote.

“Since a compromise was worked out, we decided not to offer” the amendment repealing the act's time restrictions, Tapia said.  “But that doesn’t change his position.  He continues to be opposed to the sunset provisions of the Patriot Act,” she said.

Civil liberties advocates said they were pleased that Hatch’s proposed amendment had been defeated.

“This is a major victory,” said Timothy Edgar, legislative counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union.  “Hatch wanted to intimidate the Democrats into not offering their amendments, and that ploy didn’t work because there is widespread concern that the government has already gone too far with the Patriot Act.  His salvo may have backfired,” Edgar said.

The bill will now go to the House of Representatives, the Times reported.  “We’ll wait to take a look at the Senate bill and see what we’re going to do,” a senior House Republican aide said (Eric Lichtblau, New York Times, May 9).

Back to top

U.S. Response II:  Pentagon to Unveil New Anti-WMD Force Protection Project

The U.S. Defense Department is expected to unveil Oct. 1 a new force and installation security project designed to defend against terrorist threats, including WMD threats, according to a department release yesterday.

The $1 billion project, named “Guardian,” will help improve security at 200 installations in the United States and abroad over the next five years, said Army Brig. Gen. Stephen Reeves, the Pentagon’s program executive officer for chemical and biological defense.

When implemented, Guardian will provide military sites and their populations with improved protection against “chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats,” Reeves said.

The Joint Staff is currently developing a list of installations to take part in the project, Reeves said.  Approximately 185 installations in the United States and 15 overseas are expected to be involved, he said, adding that Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz will make the final selections.

In the end, “we’ll provide the same levels of protection — and certainly have the same standards — for all of our installations around the world,” Reeves said (U.S. Defense Department release, May 8).

Back to top

Iraq:  Iraqi Intelligence Agent Apparently Reveals Chem-Bio Assassination Program

U.S. and British intelligence officials have interrogated a midlevel Iraqi intelligence agent who appears to have knowledge of an Iraqi assassination program that used chemical and biological agents, a senior British defense source said yesterday (see GSN, May 8).

The assassination program appears to have been established by ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s former regime, and not by any terrorist organization, the source said.  The program used only minute amounts of biological and chemical agents, such as ricin and sarin, according to the source.

U.S. and British intelligence agencies are focusing more on finding former Iraqi WMD scientists and technicians because they may possess intelligence that may prove to be more useful than that of former high-ranking regime officials, the British official said.

“These midlevel people may be a more promising route (to finding out the extent of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction) than us suddenly finding WMD equipment,” the official said.  “We would be amazingly lucky to find steaming vats of chemicals or rows and rows of WMD-tipped missiles,” the official added (Peter Almond, United Press International, May 8).

Sanctions

Meanwhile, the United States, United Kingdom and Spain today introduced a new U.N. Security Council resolution to end U.N. sanctions against Iraq, according to Reuters.

The resolution, which two senior Security Council diplomats described as “hard” and “in your face,” would phase out the existing oil-for-food program over the next four months and would give the United Nations and other international organizations only an advisory role in the Iraqi reconstruction, according to Reuters.  The three countries want a vote on the resolution by June 3, when the existing oil-for-food program would need to be renewed (Evelyn Leopold, Reuters, May 9).

United States Warns Syria Not to Hide Iraqi Weapons

The United States would be forced to take action if it was learned that Syria had hidden Iraqi weapons of mass destruction during the recent war in Iraq, U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said in an interview published this week (see GSN, April 21).

“We have assurances from the Syrians that nothing crossed their borders,” Rice said in interviews Tuesday with four Spanish newspapers.  “Time will tell,” she  added.

If such promises were revealed to be false, however, the international community would be forced to act, Rice said, refusing to provide other details.

Syria’s Ambassador to Spain Mohsen Bilal has denied that his country helped to hide Iraqi weapons of mass destruction or fleeing Iraqi officials.

“We have no fear and no secrets,” Bilal said Wednesday (Associated Press/MSNBC.com, May 8).

Iraqi Looters May Have Caused Own Radiation Poisoning

Iraqis who looted a nuclear power facility near the town of Zafaraniya earlier this month are believed to have stolen drums filled with radioactive uranium oxide concentrate, according to the Asahi Shimbun.

Iraqi troops guarded the facility until April 4, when they fled in advance of U.S. troops, according to the report.  Nearby residents looted the facility only days later, and are believed to have stolen 100 barrels of the radioactive material.  It is believed that the looters did not know what the material was or have any interest in it.

Officials believe that the looters inhaled large quantities of the uranium and might have ingested some after converting the barrels for use as water and cooking oil storage containers, according to the report.  One nearby resident who was involved in the looting was reported to have said that he tasted the uranium oxide concentrate because it looked pretty (Tsuyoshi Nojima, Asahi Shimbun, May 8).

Back to top

NPT:  Geneva Meeting Ends Admitting Problems

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

GENEVA — The parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty concluded their annual meeting this afternoon with an acknowledgement that the treaty and the nonproliferation regime face serious challenges (see GSN, May 1).

In his summary report of the meeting, Ambassador Laszlo Molnar of Hungary, the chairman of the Preparatory Committee for the 2005 Review Conference, wrote that states “stressed the increasingly grave threat to the treaty and international security posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear, biological and chemical. … The gravity of this threat reinforces the need to strengthen the treaty.”

North Korea, which withdrew from the treaty earlier this year (see GSN, April 10) and Iran were criticized for not complying with the treaty by pursuing nuclear weapons, while the nuclear weapons powers, particularly the United States, were criticized for not pursuing nuclear disarmament. The United States was also criticized for embracing military doctrines that envision more uses for nuclear weapons.

Molnar’s summary was meant to take all these opinions into account without endorsing any of them.  The summary does not represent a consensus view of all the parties, but rather, as Molnar said at a news conference, it “can be seen and adopted as a representative sample of the whole debate without going into any extremities.”  For example, he said, some nuclear powers criticized him for not emphasizing more the progress in nuclear disarmament while some non-nuclear states said he “was not as forthcoming as I could have been on pressing for nuclear disarmament.”

Andrew Semmel of the United States said at the committee’s final session, “While disarmament continues its downward trend, proliferation challenges are mounting.  The relative attention paid by too many delegations to disarmament versus proliferation ignores the reality of our international security situation.”  He added, “We cannot accept these assertions” concerning “the alleged failure” of nuclear disarmament.

Molnar’s summary made an oblique reference to concerns about U.S. nuclear policies by saying, “Concern and uncertainty about existing nuclear arsenals, new approaches to the future role of nuclear weapons, as well as the possible development of new generations of nuclear weapons were expressed.”

The United States was particularly vocal during the session in charging that Iran is developing nuclear weapons in violation of the treaty.  Semmel said he was pleased that Iran was specifically named, but “the summary has not gone far enough.”  He said, “Iran poses as fundamental a challenge as the NPT has ever faced.”  While under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, Iran is developing technology “intended to support a nuclear weapons program,” he added (see related GSN story, today).

Amir Zamaninia of Iran said the U.S. allegation “clearly illustrates the U.S. policy of double standards” of accusing Iran while the United States is not complying with its disarmament obligations and ignoring the issue of nuclear weapons in Israel, which Zamaninia called “a proven and established proliferator.”  Israel is the only Middle East country not party to the treaty

“We are determined, because we do not have anything to hide, to work closely with the IAEA in a cooperative and transparent manner to make the truth about the peaceful nature of our nuclear program known to all,” said Zamaninia at the closing session.  “The NPT will be strong only when it is fully complied with by both the nuclear weapon and non-nuclear weapon states alike, when we … avoid the temptation of picking what suits us at a particular juncture,” he added.

The paragraph on Iran in Molnar’s summary noted that Iran has been asked to sign a new protocol with the IAEA that would give the agency greater access to the country’s nuclear facilities to better judge if Iran is in full compliance with the NPT (see GSN, Feb. 24).  Such a protocol would “enhance the confidence of states parties and help eliminate concerns regarding [Iran’s] nuclear program,” the summary said.  But the summary did not repeat any of the charges the United States made.  The agency is to present a comprehensive report on Iran to its board of governors in June.  Semmel said the treaty parties “must be ready to act firmly if Iran does not comply.”

Semmel also expressed “concerns” about other treaty parties in the Middle East, including Libya (see GSN, April 7).

A related issue is the commitment parties made at the 1995 and 2000 review conferences to work for a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East.  The summary said the goal “remained valid” and “called upon Israel to accede to the treaty as soon as possible and to place its nuclear facilities under comprehensive IAEA safeguards.”

Last year’s meeting was consumed over charges of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, April 23, 2002). But this year’s summary was limited to pointing out that there “remained unresolved questions regarding Iraq’s programs of weapons of mass destruction” and that “some states parties took note of the IAEA’s readiness to resume its verification activities in Iraq.”

North Korea’s withdrawal from the treaty and its threats to resume its nuclear program presented “one important challenge from the very beginning,” said Molnar.  The committee had to decide how to deal with North Korea’s withdrawal — the only country ever to pull out of the treaty — “without interfering with the ongoing political efforts” to resolve the issue.  The summary’s wording, he said, “will not have a great significance at this point, but it is not going to cause any harm either.”  North Korea should see incentives in the wording “and see the message that is very clear from the international community,” he added.

The summary said states “deplored” North Korea’s decision and called the withdrawal “a serious challenge to the global nonproliferation regime.”  It called on North Korea to dismantle its program “in a prompt, verifiable and irreversible way” while recognizing its “legitimate security concerns.”

Semmel said this language was too weak and that North Korea’s “cynical and dangerous actions in its nuclear weapons program pose a grave threat to regional and international stability and deserves the strongest condemnation.”

This was the second of three preparatory meetings leading up to the 2005 review conference for the treaty. The 2004 preparatory meeting is expected to make recommendations to the 2005 review conference.  Therefore, this preparatory meeting was not expected to produce any concrete recommendations.  Molnar’s summary will be the starting point for the work next year.

The summary also called on India and Pakistan to renounce their nuclear weapons and join the treaty as non-nuclear states.

Only India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea are not parties to the NPT.  East Timor ratified earlier this week, bringing the total of states parties to 188.

Back to top

United States:  Senate Committee Approves Bush Nuclear Weapons Objectives

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — In passing a $400 billion defense budget for fiscal 2004 yesterday, the Senate Armed Services Committee approved new measures for developing and testing nuclear weapons that were sought by the Bush administration.

The marked-up bill, the largest ever, will now go before the full Senate for consideration.  The House Armed Services Committee is expected to complete its companion bill next week and approve similar, if not the same, measures (see GSN, May 8).

Last year, Democrats, who then controlled the Senate, blocked a number of similar measures proposed by the Bush administration.  Now Republicans control both houses, and the recent committee actions suggest that most, if not all, of the Bush administration’s nuclear weapons-related requests will prevail.

“The president got most of what he wanted,” said Steve LaMontagne, a research analyst at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, noting that two measures approved by the Senate committee related to U.S. aid for nuclear and chemical weapons elimination abroad could conflict with language in the House bill.

Repeal of Low-Yield Nuke Ban

In perhaps the most controversial of the nuclear weapons-related measures, the Senate committee authorized a repeal to a 1994 ban on research and development of low-yield nuclear weapons.

The Bush administration has sought the repeal so it can explore designing new weapons to use against facilities containing chemical and biological agents, as well as deeply buried, hardened targets.

Critics have charged such activity would undermine international nuclear nonproliferation efforts and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (see related GSN story, today).

A House Armed Services subcommittee also approved the repeal this week, but the full committee may agree to some limitations under a compromise now under negotiation with the ban’s original co-author, Representative John Spratt (R-S.C.).

The Senate committee also authorized $15 million to continue a feasibility study on a system called the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (see GSN, March 7) and $6 million for the Advanced Concepts Initiative, which aims at improving earth-penetrating weapons.

Testing Readiness

The Senate committee also approved an Energy Department request to reduce the time it would take to prepare for a nuclear weapon test from 32 months to 18 months.

Analysts say the move suggests the administration might be contemplating testing new nuclear weapons.  Bush administration officials, however, have said there are no plans to resume testing and that shortening the test readiness time is only a contingency measure.  The United States has observed a moratorium on nuclear testing since 1992.

Critics say the move could undermine international efforts to discourage nuclear testing that is banned by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty — a measure that has not yet entered into force, and one that President George W. Bush has indicated he will not ratify.

Cooperative Threat Reduction

The Senate committee also approved two measures related to threat reduction aid outside of the United States — items that apparently do not appear in the House bill.

A waiver authorizing funding for chemical weapons destruction in the former Soviet Union garnered a one-year extension.  The waiver, which was approved last year, would allow fiscal 2004 funding to be spent on the Russian chemical weapons demilitarization program at Shchuchye in the event that Russia does not meet six conditions required in another U.S. law (see GSN, Jan. 15).

Experts say the president is unlikely to certify that Russia has met all of the conditions — which include facilitating U.S. verification of destruction activities there and complying with all relevant arms control agreements — and so, without the waiver, chemical weapons destruction activities at Shchuchye would end when fiscal 2003 money runs out.

Last year’s extension was fought and defeated by Representative Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), who now chairs the House Armed Services Committee.  The waiver was not included in the 2004 bill introduced by Hunter.

The Senate committee also approved an administration request to allow allocating a portion of the $450 million Defense Department Cooperative Threat Reduction programs to be spent outside the former Soviet Union.

Similar legislation also was opposed by Hunter last year and does not appear in the House bill, although a separate bill introduced this year in the House would give the Energy Department such authority.

Back to top

Iran:  IAEA Not Ready to Rule on Tehran’s Nuclear Program

The International Atomic Energy Agency is not yet ready to render a decision as to whether Iran’s nuclear program violates the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, diplomats said yesterday (see GSN, May 7).

The agency is still reviewing the results of a February visit to Iranian facilities, Western diplomats said.  While some observers expect the agency to report conclusively on Iran’s program at June 16 meeting of its board of governors, the diplomats doubted such a report would be ready.

“It is still at the technical level,” a diplomat from a Western Security Council member said.  “It has not reached the political level yet,” the diplomat added.

U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday took a cautious attitude toward the June meeting.

“We’ll wait and see what it says,” Bush said.  “I’ve always expressed my concerns that the Iranians may be developing a nuclear program,” he added (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters/Environmental News Network, May 9).

Technology Source

Meanwhile, there are indications that the centrifuges Iran is using at a uranium-enrichment facility in the southern city of Natanz are of Pakistani origin, according to IAEA inspectors and senior U.S. officials (see GSN, March 11).

During their February visit to Iranian nuclear facilities, IAEA inspectors were “shocked” to see that the design of the centrifuges being used at the Natanz plant were obviously of Pakistani origin, an agency official said.

“The question is, where is the factory that supplied the Iranian facility at Natanz?” a senior IAEA official said.  “Is it in Pakistan, or is it in North Korea?” the official added (NBC News/MSNBC.com, May 9).

State Department Keeps Up Pressure

Meanwhile, U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher yesterday said Iran was conducting “an active pursuit of nuclear weapons” and questioned the need for Iran to seek nuclear energy facilities.

“There is no economic justification for a state that’s rich in oil and gas like Iran to build hugely expensive nuclear fuel cycle facilities.  Iran flares off more gas annually than the equivalent energy its desired nuclear reactors would produce.  States with peaceful nuclear energy programs have nothing to hide, and Iran did its best to hide all of these nuclear fuel cycle activities,” Boucher said (State Department release, May 8).

Back to top

South Asia:  Armitage Expresses “Cautious Optimism” on India-Pakistan Peace Process

After meeting yesterday with top Pakistani officials, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said he felt a “cautious optimism” that a peace process had begun between India and Pakistan (see GSN, May 8).

“I think what you’re seeing, I hope, is the beginning of a process, and I’m cautiously optimistic,” Armitage said, referring to recent moves by both countries to improve relations prior to a possible meeting.  “There is a nascent beginning of a dialogue,” he said.

Armitage also said the United States could act as an “interlocutor” in helping the two countries meet to resolve long-standing tensions, such as the disputed region of Kashmir.

“Our own endeavors here, the United States, is to faithfully discuss these issues with both sides of the equation and try [to] act just like an interlocutor,” Armitage said.  “If we can be helpful in bringing about a dialogue, that’s a good thing,” he said.

Armitage denied, however, that the United States had pressured the two countries to resume a dialogue.

“That is not the case.  It is not the position of the U.S. government to pressure Pakistan or to pressure India,” Armitage said.

Armitage is now expected to meet with Indian officials in New Delhi tomorrow (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, May 9).

Back to top

Russia:  Missile Submarine Completes Overhaul

A Russian Delta-IV ballistic missile submarine, the Novomoskovsk, has completed an overhaul and will return to service following a systems check, ITAR-Tass reported Wednesday (ITAR-Tass, May 7 in FBIS-SOV, May 8).

Russia has six Delta-IV submarines, each capable of carrying 16 ballistic missiles which in turn can be armed with as many as four nuclear warheads each (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August, 2002).

The Novomoskovsk is notable for launching the first commercial satellite from a submarine in 1998, using an SS-N-23 ballistic missile as the booster (Space Today Online).

Back to top

U.S. Response:  CBO Estimates “Project Bioshield” to Cost More Than $8 Billion

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Congressional Budget Office has estimated that a White House proposal to purchase medical countermeasures to defend against a possible biological weapons attack will cost more than $8 billion — $2.5 billion more than Bush administration estimates (see GSN, April 7).

U.S. President George W. Bush first proposed “Project Bioshield” in his State of the Union address in January (see GSN, Jan. 29).  The project would provide the Health and Human Services Department with a “permanent, indefinite funding authority” to purchase vaccines and treatments against biological agents in order to encourage commercial manufacturers to produce such items, according to a CBO report released this week.

The White House has estimated that Project Bioshield will cost $5.6 billion over the next 10 years to purchase and stockpile seven new countermeasures to defend against five biological agents — anthrax, smallpox, botulinum toxin, plague and Ebola.  Of that, more than half would go toward purchasing new anthrax and smallpox countermeasures, such as next-generation vaccines, the CBO report says.

In late January, soon after Bush’s address, Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Mark McClellan was quoted by the Washington Post as saying that the $6 billion estimate was developed after “a careful analysis of the threats against this country” (see GSN, Jan. 30).

Congressional auditors, however, have estimated that the project would probably cost $8.1 billion over the next 10 years — an  increase of almost 45 percent over White House estimates.  The increased CBO estimate takes into account the possible purchase of countermeasures for additional biological agents, as well as chemical, nuclear and radiological agents, currently unaddressed in the administration’s plans for the program, the report says.

The White House plans to develop a stockpile of new botulinum antitoxin at a cost of $800 million over a three-year period, beginning “in the next few years,” the report says.  In addition to the new antitoxin, the White House is also preparing to purchase doses of a new vaccine and monoclonal antibodies against botulinium toxin beginning by 2008 at a cost of $890 million.

To help defend against a possible plague outbreak, the Bush administration is considering purchasing 2 million doses of plague vaccine at a total cost of $220 million over the next 10 years beginning in 2005, according to the report.  It also says that the White House is interested in purchasing 3 million doses of an Ebola vaccine currently being researched by the National Institutes of Health.  The Bush administration has estimated that such a vaccine will become available in 2005 and anticipates spending $260 million over the next 10 years to purchase and store doses, the report says.

The CBO’s own estimate of the costs to purchase and store the countermeasures differs from that of the White House.  According to its report, the CBO estimated that the costs for the White House’s procurement goals would cost $4.8 billion over the next 10 years, approximately $800 million less than the White House estimate.  Congressional auditors estimated that spending for new botulinum, plague and Ebola vaccines would be less than the White House’s estimate because the vaccines may not be available as soon as the White House estimates, according to the report.

The potential cost of Project Bioshield increases when the possible purchase of other countermeasures is included, according to the report.  For example, the Bush administration could purchase through the project several other new treatments being developed to counter the five high-priority biological agents, such as new antiviral drugs to treat smallpox and viral hemorrhagic fevers, along with a new antibiotic to combat anthrax, the report says.  There are also  “numerous” other biological agents for which countermeasures could be purchased through the project.

In addition, Project Bioshield could also be used to procure countermeasures against chemical, nuclear and radiological agents, in addition to the biological countermeasures the White House plans to purchase, according to the report.  The CBO estimated that it could cost up to $20 billion to purchase and store countermeasures for these additional agents, but also determined that the White House would not be interested in purchasing all of them.  In the end, the CBO estimated that it would cost an additional $3.3 billion over the next 10 years to cover the potential purchase of countermeasures against agents not included in the White House plan, accounting for the larger total estimate.

Meanwhile, legislation enacting Project Bioshield appears to have become stalled in both houses of Congress, according to reports.  The House Energy and Commerce Committee yesterday canceled a markup hearing on the House version of the bill at the White House’s request, according to CongressDaily. 

In the Senate, the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee approved a version of the bill creating the program more than a month ago, but the objections of Senator Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) has kept the bill off the floor, CongressDaily reported.

Back to top

Czech Response:  Chemical Warfare Specialists Return Home

After spending several months in Kuwait, Czech chemical warfare specialists are heading home, according to the Prague Pravo (see GSN, Feb. 12).

The chemical detection battalion at Camp Doha has been serving in the Gulf region for more than a year (see GSN, Feb. 27, 2002).  The first 30 soldiers returned to the Czech Republic Wednesday, accompanied by Czech Defense Minister Jaroslav Tvrdik, while another 100 will return next week (Prague Pravo, May 6 in FBIS-EEU, May 8).

Back to top

Taiwan:  U.S. Officials Urge Taipei to Buy Antimissile System

Following a massive buildup of Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan, U.S. officials are urging Taipei to purchase the new Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile, the Wall Street Journal reported today (see GSN, March 25).

China has begun stockpiling up to 75 missiles per year across the Taiwan Strait, and Pentagon officials claim that a total of 600 will be pointed at the island by 2005, according to the Journal.

“We believe it is imperative that Taiwan … acquire an integrated air and missile defense capability,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Lawless said during a U.S.-Taiwan defense industry conference earlier this year, noting that Taiwan’s “first task is to address (China’s) accelerated conventional missile buildup,” the Journal reported.

However, the advanced antimissile system has several hurdles to overcome, including a price tag of $2.7 million each, as well as a still-to-be-determined performance record during Operation Iraqi Freedom.  While the PAC-3 was credited for shooting down two enemy missiles over Iraq, it may have also been involved in the downing of two coalition aircraft (Wall Street Journal, May 9).

Back to top