Threat Assessment:  Washington Warns of Al-Qaeda WMD Attack

The United States believes there is a “high probability” that al-Qaeda members will attempt an attack with weapons of mass destruction within two years, according to a report released by the United Nations yesterday (see GSN, June 3).

The April U.S. report was prepared in response to a U.N. resolution requiring members to increase efforts against al-Qaeda, according to Reuters.  The U.S. report said al-Qaeda will continue to acquire weapons of mass destruction and could use them in attacks against targets such as banks, supermarkets and shopping malls, as well as in “spectacular attacks.”

“We judge that there is a high probability that al-Qaeda will attempt an attack using a CBRN [chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear] weapon within the next two years,” the report said (Reuters/Yahoo!News, June 9).

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Iraq:  Bush Says WMD “Program” Will be Found, Refines Previous Claims

U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday said coalition forces would find evidence that Iraq had WMD programs prior to the war, moving away from earlier claims that Iraq possessed actual weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, June 9).

“Iraq had a weapons program,” Bush said.  “Intelligence throughout the decade showed they had a weapons program.  I am absolutely convinced, with time, we’ll find out that they did have a weapons program,” he said.

Critics, however, have said the word “program” is too imprecise, according to Newsday.

“It can mean anything,” said Mel Goodman, a retired CIA analyst.  “It can mean documents, anything; no matter how benign, they will find some various purpose for it,” he said (Knut Royce, Newsday, June 10).

Prior to the war in Iraq, Bush often made concrete claims that Iraq possessed actual biological and chemical weapons, according to the Los Angeles Times.  For example, in an Oct. 7 speech, Bush said Iraq “possesses and produces chemical and biological weapons” (see GSN, Oct. 8, 2002).

“If we know Saddam Hussein has dangerous weapons today ð— and we do —does it make any sense for the world to wait to confront him as he grows even stronger and develops even more dangerous weapons?”  Bush said then.

Shortly before the war, Bush again made claims that Iraq possessed actual weapons, the Times reported.  On March 17, Bush said “intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised” (see GSN, March 18).

Bush yesterday denied that a failure to find actual weapons of mass destruction in Iraq would damage U.S. credibility.

“The credibility of this country is based upon our strong desire to make the world more peaceful, and the world is now more peaceful after our decision” to remove Hussein, Bush said.

The lack of concrete proof of the death of Hussein is making it more difficult to obtain evidence that could aid the WMD search, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday.

“To the extent it’s not proven that he’s not alive, there are a lot of people who might fear that he could come back,” Rumsfeld said, referring to Hussein.  “And if they fear that he could come back, they might be somewhat slower in an interrogation to say what they know,” he said (Greg Miller, Los Angeles Times, June 10).

Bush yesterday also defended prewar administration claims that Hussein and al-Qaeda were connected. 

The New York Times reported yesterday that two captured senior al-Qaeda operatives have denied any such link during interrogations.  Bush said yesterday, however, that the Times had ignored evidence that an al-Qaeda operative hiding in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was responsible for the murder last year of Laurence Foley, a U.S. aid official, in Jordan.

“I guess the people that wrote that article forgot about al-Zarqawi’s network inside of Baghdad that ordered the killing of a U.S. citizen named Foley,” Bush said (David Rennie, London Telegraph, June 10).

Iraq Survey Group to Begin Search Soon

Meanwhile, the Iraq Survey Group could begin Saturday to search for evidence of Iraq’s WMD efforts, according to Reuters.

The group will replace the U.S. military’s 75th Exploitation Task Force, which so far has found no conclusive evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.  The Iraq Survey Group, headed by Army Maj. General Keith Dayton, director of operations for the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, will have a staff of 1,400, consisting mainly of Americans, officials said.  A British national may be named as the group’s second-in-command, they said.

While the United States has long opposed a formal U.N. role in the WMD search, up to 50 former U.N. inspectors have been recruited to join the group, a defense official said.  It is “hugely important” that the group include “a large number of people with all the historical experience with previous inspections,” said former U.N. chief weapons inspector Terence Taylor (Reuters/Boston Globe, June 10).

The U.S. military units that made up the 75th Exploitation Task Force are now being given time off or being assigned to other duties than the WMD search because there are no more sites to investigate, according to the Associated Press.

“It doesn’t appear there are any more targets at this time,” said Lt. Col. Keith Harrington, whose team has been cut by more than 30 percent.  “We’re hanging around with no missions in the foreseeable future,” he said (Dafna Linzer, Associated Press/Philadelphia Inquirer, June 10).

British Intelligence

British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Alastair Campbell, Blair’s communications director, will not allow themselves to be questioned by the British Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Select Committee regarding allegations that the government exaggerated prewar intelligence on Iraq, the prime minister’s office said yesterday.

The committee last week asked if Blair and Campbell would answer questions in their inquiry as to whether intelligence was exaggerated to boost support for war, according to the London Independent.  A spokesman for Blair said, however, that neither man would appear before the committee.  Instead, Blair will meet with members of the Intelligence and Security Committee when they publish an annual report on the British intelligence services today, the Independent reported.  That committee, which has also announced that it will conduct an inquiry into Iraq-related intelligence, conducts its work in private and can have its reports censored by the government (Paul Waugh, London Independent, June 10).

Iran Backs United States on WMD Claims

In a rare moment of agreement with the United States, Iran has concurred with the U.S. assessment that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction prior to the war, according to an Iranian official with ties to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“Yes, we agree with the Americans,” the Iranian official said.  “Our intelligence indicated that Iraq did possess weapons of mass destruction and was hiding them from the U.N.,” the official said.

While Iran does not know what happened to such weapons, there are concerns that they might have been smuggled into local black markets, according to the official.

“We know other items, once under military control (such as broadcast transmission equipment), have found their way onto the black market,” the official said.  “We have people coming to Tehran from Baghdad with catalogs of items (stolen from the Iraqi government) offering them for sale,” the official said, adding that no chemical or biological weapons have so far been discovered (Stewart Stogel, Washington Times, June 10).

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North Korea:  Washington Seeks Interdiction of North Korean Weapons

The United States and its Northeast Asian allies are planning to monitor North Korean shipping in an attempt to stop nuclear material from entering the country and missile technology from leaving it, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, June 9).

The White House is hoping to use “selective interdiction” to reduce the income North Korea allegedly derives from selling arms and illegal drugs, according to officials (see GSN, May 19).

To avoid questions about the legality of stopping and searching North Korean ships the program “will be focused on those activities which require no additional laws, no international treaties, no going to the United Nations Security Council,” said a senior U.S. official.  “Look at the Japanese, who can’t stop transfers of money on North Korean ships, but suddenly discovered they can do ‘safety inspections,’” the official added.

Officials will not make any formal announcement of the new interdiction policy, and they will attempt to avoid a direct confrontation, the Times reported (David Sanger, New York Times, June 10).

“This does not mean we are on our way to war,” said Secretary of State Colin Powell, “We are not.”

Powell played down North Korea’s statement yesterday that it is seeking nuclear weapons.

“They said things like this before,” Powell said.  “They’ve said they have nuclear weapons, and today they seem to be saying they would develop nuclear weapons,” he added (Agence France-Presse, June 10).

Last week, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said Washington was discussing the plan to cut off shipping lanes to North Korea’s alleged importing and exporting of weapons.

“As we close off proliferation networks, we will inevitably intercept related criminal activity and overlapping smuggling rings,” Bolton said (Andrew Ward, Financial Times, June 10).

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Anthrax I:  FBI Divided Over Former U.S. Army Biologist’s Role in Attacks

The FBI task force investigating the fall 2001 anthrax attacks is divided over the possible role of a former U.S. Army biologist who has been the public focus so far of the bureau’s investigation into the attacks, the Baltimore Sun reported today (see GSN, June 9).

Some within the FBI task force believe that Steven Hatfill is still a promising suspect, according to one official who is in regular contact with investigators.  Others, however, are frustrated that after more than a year-and-a-half, no substantial evidence linking Hatfill to the attacks has been found, according to the Sun.

As part of its investigation, the FBI has begun draining a pond located near Frederick, Md., where pieces of laboratory equipment were discovered during a series of searches that began late last year.  Agents are believed to be looking for additional pieces of equipment that might have been used to prepare the letters mailed in the attacks and authorities may also test for anthrax in soil samples taken from the bottom of the pond, according to the Sun. 

Some FBI officials, however, are unsure if the new effort will uncover anything, the Sun reported.

“Even the ones who favor draining the pond aren’t all that certain they’ll find anything,” the official said (Scott Shane, Baltimore Sun, June 10).

To help construct a day-by-day timeline of Hatfill’s activities, the FBI has obtained documents under a grand jury subpoena and has conducted interviews with hundreds of people, according to the Washington Post.  Bureau agents have also attempted to persuade people who know Hatfill, or who have worked with him, to offer information. 

In addition, the FBI has investigated whether Hatfill had any connection to several anthrax hoax letters that were discovered around the same time as the tainted letters used in the attacks, sources said.  Two of the hoax letters were mailed from Malaysia and London, where authorities have worked with the FBI to determine if they are connected to Hatfill or anyone associated with him, sources said.

The FBI has questioned Malaysian relatives and associates of Hatfill’s girlfriend, who came to the United States from Malaysia, sources said.  The FBI has also questioned relatives of Hatfill’s girlfriend who live in the Northeastern United States, the Post reported.

The London hoax letter was postmarked at the same time Hatfill was in a London suburb to attend classes for trainees in the U.N. weapons inspection program, according to the Post.  The FBI obtained records of Hatfill’s car rental at London Heathrow Airport and tracked his movements before and after the training classes, the Post reported.  Pat Clawson, a spokesman for Hatfill, said Hatfill used the car only to travel to and from the airport and did not enter London (Snyder/Thompson, Washington Post, June 10).

Clawson yesterday once again defended Hatfill, saying he was innocent of any role in the anthrax attacks.

“When Steve heard the news this morning, he just chuckled and shook his head that they would waste all that money,” Clawson said.  “They can search every pond in Maryland and drain the Pacific Ocean and they won’t find evidence linking Steve Hatfill to the anthrax attacks, because there is no such evidence.  On the other hand, if this will help further establish Steve's innocence, we welcome it,” Clawson added (Shane, Baltimore Sun).

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U.S. Response:  Democrats Criticize DHS Information Analysis

Several U.S. Democratic lawmakers yesterday questioned the Homeland Security Department’s ability to analyze the bioterrorist threat to the United States, saying the department’s poor analytical capability calls into question the $6 billion the White House wants to spend on Project Bioshield over the next decade (see GSN, June 3).

The department “is not remotely close to having the tools it needs to meet its critical mandate,” said Representative Jim Turner (D-Texas) in a letter to U.S. President George W. Bush.

Project Bioshield is a $6 billion effort to stockpile medicines to respond to a bioterrorist attack.

“We can’t afford to make a multimillion-dollar mistake,” Turner wrote.

The “dysfunctional state” of the department’s Office of Information Analysis puts Project Bioshield’s direction in doubt, Turner said yesterday at a press conference.  The office has only one microbiologist and 25 analysts, according to Turner.

Homeland Security Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said officials plan to hire 85 more analysts, including four more microbiologists, by the end of September.

Representative Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) said that analyzing the threat against the United States was critically important.

“If this system is broken, everything else at the department is treading on thin ice,” she said (Jim Abrams, Associated Press/Kansas City Star, June 9).

Turner said the information analysis office could not provide an assessment of bioterrorism threats.

Representative Barney Frank (D-Mass.) also criticized the new department and said that the disapproval was bipartisan.

“It was, I think, a very unpleasant surprise for all the members, including the Republicans, how little prepared this agency is.  At this point, it’s kind of a shell,” he said (Federal News Service transcript, June 9).

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Anthrax II:  U.S. Judge Sentences Grandmother to 10 Months in Halfway House for Hoaxes

A 69-year-old Massachusetts woman was sentenced last week to 10 months in a halfway house for mailing anthrax hoax letters (see GSN, Feb. 11).

Joyce Godbout, a grandmother of 10, pleaded guilty last year to mailing 18 death threats — some including a white powder — to Massachusetts Attorney General Thomas Reilly, members of his staff and a judge who were all involved in her 2001 conviction on Medicaid fraud charges, according to the Associated Press.  Godbout had originally been sentenced to serve a year at a halfway house, but a new policy later removed federal judges’ discretion in sentencing nonviolent offenders, AP reported. 

At Godbout’s resentencing hearing Thursday, U.S. Attorney Stephen Huggard called on the judge to sentence Godbout to at least 30 months in prison, despite her advanced age.

“The papers say that the government wants granny to go to jail. ... Well, granny should go to jail because granny is a terrorist,” Huggard said (Associated Press/TheBostonChannel.com, June 6).

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Russia:  Chemical Disposal Commission Requests Additional Funds

The Russian commission responsible for overseeing efforts to dispose of Russian chemical weapons has requested that funding for the effort be tripled this year, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, June 5).

Commission members support a request by the agency conducting the disposal effort for increased funding, said commission Chairman Sergei Kiriyenko.  Moscow has allocated more than $160 million in this year’s budget for chemical weapons disposal, AP reported.

In 1997, Russian officials agreed to destroy its chemical weapons stockpile by 2007.  However, officials now say they will need a five-year extension, according to AP.  To date, Russia has destroyed only 1 percent of its chemical arsenal (Associated Press, June 10).

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South Korea:  Defense Official Wants Independent Missile Defense System

A top South Korean defense official said yesterday that Seoul should develop its own missile defense system and not just rely on U.S. efforts to provide a missile defense shield (see GSN, June 5).

“We need to build our own capabilities regardless of requests from the United States,” said Deputy Defense Minister for Policy Lt. Gen. Cha Young-koo.  “However, the United States has not yet made any proposal on our participation in the MD,” he added.

Cha said the U.S. Patriot missiles already stationed in South Korea should not dissuade Seoul’s efforts.

“We need to establish our own capability and we have a mid- and long-term plan for that,” he said.  Cha also supported a U.S. request that Seoul increase its defense spending to more than 3 percent of its gross domestic product (Xinhua News Agency, June 10).

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U.S. Plans:  Failed December Missile Defense Test Costs $45 Million

U.S. defense contractor Boeing lost $45 million in bonus money last December when a test of the developing U.S. missile defense system failed (see GSN, Dec. 11, 2002).

The test failed because the warhead, built by Raytheon, did not separate from the booster rocket.  The problem was linked to a design change made by a Raytheon subcontractor two years ago, according to Patricia Sanders of the Missile Defense Agency.

The potential Boeing bonus for a successful test was $48.4 million.

“We were not pleased,” Sanders said.  “A lot of profit is really in the award fee, and that is a very big message to both Boeing and Raytheon — they didn’t make the profit and they won’t make that up,” she added.

Technicians at Pacific Scientific in California removed a small piece of foam to allow easier access to the warhead’s inner workings, but that foam was necessary to brace equipment that severed the bonds with the booster.  The uncushioned equipment broke after the missile was fired.

“This falls into the category of ‘no detail being too small,’” Sanders said.

Raytheon lost its bonus as well, but did not disclose the amount.  Raytheon officials will increase their monitoring of subcontractor work, the company said (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg.com, June 9).

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