Iraq:  Blix Questions Coalition’s Expectations for WMD Discovery

Retiring chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix said Tuesday that he was surprised that coalition forces expected to find large quantities of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq when U.N. inspectors had made no such discovery (see GSN, June 18).

“What surprises me, what amazes me, is that it seems the military people were expecting to stumble on large quantities of gas, chemical weapons and biological weapons,” Blix said in an interview with the New York Times.  “I don’t see how they could have come to such an attitude if they had, at any time, studied the reports” of U.N. inspectors, he said.

“Is the United Nations on a different planet?”  Blix said.  “Are reports from here totally unread south of the Hudson?” he added.

Blix also said he did not know if there was anything former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein could have done, short of abasing himself before the world, to avoid war.  If Iraq had quickly provided a list of scientists who had worked on the destruction of VX and anthrax stockpiles in 1991, interviews with those scientists might have accounted for weapons of mass destruction that have not been found, he said.

“If we had clear evidence” of the stockpiles’ destruction, “that would have been impressive,” Blix said.  “But would it have been so unambiguous?  That is doubtful,” he added (Felicity Barringer, New York Times, June 19).

WMD Hunt

Meanwhile, a British weapons team has found no evidence of a rumored chemical weapons laboratory beneath a Baghdad hospital, according to the London Times.

Last week, the team, believed to be a lead element of the Iraqi Survey Group, arrived at the Bittar Hospital of Cardiology in Baghdad and demanded to search the premises.  The team conducted a thorough search of the hospital, including the sewer system beneath the facility, but found nothing, the Times reported.

“I was astonished,” said hospital Director Hussein al-Hilli.  “The British soldiers came to my office.  They told me they knew there was an underground chemical weapons laboratory beneath the hospital and insisted that they search the site.  I told them that they were wasting their time but were welcome to look,” he said (Richard Beeston, London Times, June 19).

U.S. troops Monday captured an Iraqi official believed to have been the third highest-ranking official in Hussein’s regime, just after the Iraqi leader himself and his youngest son Qusay, according to the Knight Ridder News Service.

The U.S. Central Command announced yesterday the capture of Gen. Abid Hamid Mahmud al-Tikriti, who U.S. officials described as Hussein’s personal secretary, senior bodyguard and national security adviser.  Mahmud, who may have had the authority to authorize the use of weapons of mass destruction, might have knowledge about the fate of Hussein and whether Iraq possessed such weapons.

Based on previous experiences with captured Iraqi officials, however, U.S. officials are unsure as to how valuable Mahmud may be, according to Knight Ridder.  “We have no reason to believe that his initial reaction will be to spill his guts,” a senior U.S. official said (Lasseter/Hull, Knight Ridder/Philadelphia Inquirer, June 19).

U.S. Intelligence

The U.S. House and Senate intelligence committees yesterday began closed hearings to review the prewar intelligence used by the Bush administration to justify the war on Iraq, according to the Washington Post.

“The credibility of the intelligence community is at issue here” because questions have been raised “about whether the (Bush) administration accurately portrayed the intelligence case regarding Iraq’s WMD (weapons of mass destruction) and ties to al-Qaeda and other nonindigenous terrorist groups,” Representative Jane Harman (D-Calif.) said after the House intelligence committee hearing.

Yesterday, the House committee heard testimony from several intelligence officers that provided background on an October 2002 national intelligence estimate on Iraqi WMD programs and how that report was prepared, Bush administration and congressional sources said.  The committee is expected to hear from intelligence officers today about the status of the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, they said.

Yesterday, the Senate intelligence committee attempted to develop procedures for future hearings, according to the Post.  Both committees may continue to hold hearings on the Iraq intelligence issue throughout the summer (Pincus/Priest, Washington Post, June 19).

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Iran:  IAEA Issues Statement on Iran; Criticizes Reporting Failures, Urges Transparency

Ending its deliberation on Iran’s nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors rebuked Iran today for failing to report nuclear activities and urged Iranian leaders to accept more intrusive IAEA monitoring of its nuclear activities (see GSN, June 18).

The board “shared the concern” of IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei over “Iran’s past failures to report material, facilities and activities,” according to an IAEA release.  The board also urged Iran to refrain from putting any uranium into its pilot enrichment facility.

Iran has recently said that it might accept the Additional Protocol, allowing intrusive inspections of nuclear facilities, if it is allowed to import advanced nuclear technology.  The board said today that Iran should “promptly and unconditionally” accept the Additional Protocol.  The board welcomed Iran’s commitment to maintain a fully transparent nuclear program (IAEA release, June 19).

ElBaradei echoed the board’s remarks, urging Tehran to cooperate with U.N. efforts.

“Iran should continue to be fully transparent,” said ElBaradei.  “We still have a lot of work to do,” he said (CNN.com, June 19).

A diplomat familiar with the proceedings said that the statement was relatively mild.

“The statement by the board was a reprimand, not a condemnation,” the diplomat said.  “But it was more than I expected.  It’s not a bad result,” he said.

The Iranian envoy to the IAEA, Ali Salehi, said he was glad it was not stronger.

“We are happy that the board did not go with the pressure to come up with a resolution,” Salehi said (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, June 19).

Russia, which is helping Iran build nuclear reactors in the southern city of Bushehr, applauded the statement.

“The IAEA executive board did not take the path of adopting strict resolutions censuring Iran,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov.  “Russia is satisfied that following consultations a carefully thought out declaration by the chairman was made,” he added (Associated Press/Russia Journal, June 19).

Bush Speaks Out

U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that the United States “will not tolerate the construction of a nuclear weapon” in Iran.

Iran’s nuclear development has accelerated in recent months, according to U.S. officials, who said the move may have come as a result of the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.

“They now see a nuclear power — the United States — right next door in Iraq,” said a U.S. diplomat.  “That has to be affecting their calculations,” the diplomat added.

Bush’s statement was a “carefully worded escalation,” according to a senior White House official.  “It’s not like this spilled out,” the official said (David Sanger, New York Times, June 19).

Bush also called on U.S. allies to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear device.

“The international community must come together to make it very clear to Iran that we will not tolerate the construction of a nuclear weapon in Iran,” Bush said.  “There’s near universal agreement that we all must work together to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon,” he said.

Bush encouraged protesters within Iran to continue their civil disobedience.

“I appreciate those courageous souls who speak out for freedom in Iran,” he said.  “They need to know America stands squarely by their side,” Bush added (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, June 19).

Iran Rejects Nuclear Accusations

Iran rejected U.S. accusations of nuclear weapons development and said that an IAEA report, which was issued June 6 and cited Iran for failing to report uranium imports, could be applied to many countries.

“Hardly any member state can claim to be impeccable,” said IAEA envoy Salehi (Mark Landler, New York Times, June 19).

Iran also said it would consider adopting the Additional Protocol and opening up its facilities to intrusive inspections if the IAEA could prove it was immune to U.S. political pressure, the Beirut Daily Star reported today (Beirut Daily Star, June 19).

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North Korea:  Powell Speaks With North Korean Diplomat

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell held a brief conversation with a North Korean diplomat yesterday during a chance encounter at a Pan-Asian security conference (see GSN, June 18).

Powell spoke to Ho Jong, a North Korean delegate to this week’s meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  Powell reiterated the U.S. desire for multilateral talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis.

“Briefly, at the end of lunch, they bumped into each other, they shook hands and exchanged a few words,” a U.S. official said.

Speaking at the conference, Powell said that “no issue is of greater urgency” to the United States than North Korea’s nuclear development (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, June 19).

However, Pyongyang is pressing for one-on-one talks with the United States, Ho said in a speech during the conference (George Gedda, Associated Press/Boston Globe, June 19).

Frustrated by the lack of progress in resolving the crisis, the White House is pressuring other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council to censure North Korea for its continuing nuclear efforts.  U.S. diplomats held talks in New York yesterday with Russia, France and the United Kingdom to develop a statement condemning Pyongyang for its withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Washington hopes to have a statement ready by the end of the month, the Washington Post reported (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, June 19).

U.S. President George W. Bush did not, however, receive support from his Asian allies in the effort to move the North Korean issue to the Security Council.

“We have various steps to take” first, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said today.  Koizumi welcomed an appeal from Asian foreign ministers for Pyongyang to dismantle its nuclear capabilities.

“It is important for as many countries as possible to be interested in North Korea,” he said (Kyodo News Service/BBC Monitoring, June 19).

South Korea also urged patience in pushing the nuclear crisis to the Security Council.

“While the U.S. position is that the Security Council should begin deliberations within several weeks, our position is that the timing of such discussions should be decided after monitoring the developments in this phase of dialogue,” South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Soo-hyuck said today (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, June 19).

Japanese Shipping Controls Continue

Tokyo has cracked down lately on Pyongyang’s shipping links to Japan, and a North Korean ship sat idle off the Japanese coast for the sixth day yesterday.  The Man Gyong Bong-92 has not been allowed to enter port because of poor safety measures onboard.  The ship’s captain has refused to leave without unloading his cargo.  The Japanese attentiveness to ships’ safety came just after revelations that North Korea was using its shipping to smuggle missile technology out of Japan, and Tokyo has pledged to crack down on the illegal trade (Asahi Shimbun, June 19).

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Pakistan:  Musharraf Warns of Possible Greater Nuclear Dependency

Western countries should not allow India to develop a military superiority that would force Pakistan to rely solely on nuclear weapons for its defense, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said yesterday (see GSN, June 13).

A recent increase in Indian military spending, combined with continued restrictions on Pakistan seeking to purchase military equipment abroad, could create a “dangerous” military imbalance between the two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals, Musharraf said.  If such an imbalance were to occur, Pakistan would be forced to rely on its nuclear arsenal to serve as its main deterrent, he said.

“The other element of deterrence is your capability of striking and causing such damage to an enemy that is unbearable to him, and that can be done with a smaller force,” Musharraf said in an interview with the London Times.  “Every country has to survive.  Any country which wants to live in honor and dignity wants to preserve sovereign equality and its sovereignty.  Nobody will compromise with that,” he said.

Musharraf said he plans to warn U.S. President George W. Bush of the dangers of such a military imbalance when he meets with him at Camp David next week.  If defense purchase restrictions on Pakistan cannot be lifted, then a similar “embargo” should be placed on India, he said.

Musharraf also said that peace talks with India should begin as soon as possible, but criticized India’s suggestion that the disputed region of Kashmir be only one of several topics of the talks.

“Kashmir cannot be sidelined,” Musharraf said (Evans/Maddox, London Times, June 19).

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United States I:  Los Alamos Loses Two Vials of Plutonium Oxide

The U.S. Energy Department’s Los Alamos National Laboratory said yesterday that it could not account for two small vials of plutonium oxide, although it is believed that the vials had been discarded (see GSN, June 3).

The laboratory said it discovered that the vials, which contained plutonium oxide mixed with inert elements, were discovered missing June 12 after finding a discrepancy in its inventory.  The vials were not found during a two-day search, and a full materials inventory is now being conducted, according to the Associated Press.

While the exact amount of missing plutonium oxide is unknown, each of the two vials is smaller than the length of a pinky finger, said Los Alamos spokesman Kevin Roark.  The material could not be used to produce weapons, and was likely disposed of along with other radioactive waste without being properly logged, the laboratory said.

“This material has scientific and analytical research value, but is in a low hazard and threat category,” Los Alamos Director Pete Nanos said (Associated Press/Los Angeles Times, June 19).

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United States II:  Wolfowitz Defends B-1B Bomber Fleet Reduction

U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz yesterday defended the Pentagon’s decision to retire 32 B1-B nuclear-capable bombers (see GSN, June 2).

In 2001, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ordered that the 32 bombers be retired and that some of the savings in maintenance costs be used to upgrade the 60 remaining B-1Bs, according to Aerospace Daily.

“It may be a smaller strike force, but it is able to deliver, probably an order of magnitude more capability, pound for pound, and that is where the early investments have gone,” Wolfowitz told the House Armed Services Committee.

Both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, however, have approved proposals that would force the Pentagon to reactivate 23 of the bombers that were to be retired.  The Air Force has estimated that reactivating the 23 B-1Bs would result in additional costs of $1 billion in its operations and maintenance accounts through fiscal 2009 (Jefferson Morris, Aerospace Daily, June 19).

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International Response:  Global Biological Security Guidelines Needed, Expert Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Nations with scientific research facilities must develop new security guidelines to prevent terrorists from acquiring dangerous pathogens that could be used to develop biological weapons, a leading nonproliferation specialist said yesterday (see GSN, June 12).

Without improved security measures, terrorists could try to obtain pathogens by stealing them from research facilities or by purchasing them under false pretenses, according to Jonathan Tucker, a senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace.  During a presentation at the institute’s Washington headquarters, Tucker cited several examples of poor security at research facilities, such as those found by a U.S. Agriculture Department investigation that found that many of the department’s 124 laboratories were vulnerable to theft (see GSN, May 13, 2002).

While the United States and other countries have sought to domestically improve laboratory security with new regulations (see GSN, Jan. 29), an international system of biological security guidelines is needed to avoid gaps of weak enforcement that terrorists might attempt to exploit, according to Tucker.  Such guidelines should address physical security, pathogen accountability and facility personnel concerns, he said. 

At a minimum, according to Tucker, a new system of international guidelines should include the registration and licensing of research facilities that work with an agreed list of pathogens.  The new guidelines should also include physical security requirements for facilities based on the perceived levels of theft risk, as well as pathogen inventory and collection audit procedures to prevent diversion, he said.  Tucker warned, however, that quantitative inventory control procedures would not fully guarantee security because a potential terrorist could steal a minute sample of a pathogen and use it to produce large amounts.

In addition, new security guidelines should also focus on facility personnel concerns, such as periodic background checks, Tucker said, adding that scientists and technicians should receive security education and training.  Regulations concerning the transfer and export of pathogens should also be included in the new system, he said.

Tucker said his proposal mainly focused on preventing terrorists from illegally obtaining pathogens for use in weapons.  It would do little to prevent state proliferation of biological agents or to prevent states from providing terrorists with such agents, he said.

An August meeting of the Biological Weapons Convention experts group, scheduled to be held in Geneva, could be used as a launching point for the development of new international security guidelines, Tucker said.  Convention members should create a technical experts group — which could include representatives from international organizations and scientific organizations — to develop the guidelines, which could then be individually implemented through national legislation, he said.  An international oversight mechanism may also be needed to ensure uniformity and to prevent security gaps, Tucker added.

New guidelines should be developed with a focus on the inclusion of those developing countries with the least secure research facilities into the system, according to Tucker.  To this end, a minimum-standards level should be created that countries could meet either through labor-intensive measures for developing countries and more capital-intensive measures for industrialized nations, he said.  Standards should also have an appropriate level of flexibility to be tailored to individual facilities, Tucker said.  The system should also focus on compliance via incentives, not through punishments, he said.

Once the guidelines are created, states that choose to implement them could also agree to participate in annual review meetings that could be organized by an international secretariat, Tucker said.  At these meetings, countries could report on the implementation of the guidelines at a national level, as well as participate in information exchanges to aid the implementation of new biological security standards, he said.

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Smallpox:  Smallpox Immunization Programs Stalled

U.S. officials said yesterday that the national smallpox immunization campaign had come to an effective halt, the New York Times reported (see GSN, June 13).

The civilian smallpox immunization program, which was intended to inoculate 500,000 civilian health care workers by the end of February, has so far immunized only 37,608 volunteers.  Health officials said 100 more are being immunized each week.

The U.S. Defense Department has immunized 454,856 military personnel, and is inoculating 1,000 each week as a “maintenance” effort, according to Col. John Grabenstein, who ran the defense immunization effort.

Raymond Strikas, who directed the civilian immunization program for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that volunteer interest had dropped off after March and the program was now paused.

The U.S. military victory in Iraq, a long delay in the compensation plan for sickened volunteers (see GSN, May 1) and other public health concerns hampered the program, according to Strikas.  U.S. President George W. Bush originally indicated the vaccine would eventually be available to the general public, “but there’s been relatively little clamoring for that,” Strikas said.  “We accept where we are, given the circumstances.  We can make this work,” he added (Donald McNeil, New York Times, June 19).

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United States:  Sea-Based Missile Defense Test Fails

A missile interceptor fired yesterday from a U.S. Aegis destroyer failed to hit its target during a sea-based missile defense test, according to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (see GSN, June 17).

During yesterday’s test, an Aries target missile was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii, and the USS Lake Erie fired a Standard Missile 3 interceptor two minutes later, according to the Associated Press.  While the interceptor’s guidance system was activated, the interceptor failed to hit the target, said Missile Defense Agency spokesman Chris Taylor.

Yesterday’s test was the first failure of a sea-based test, AP reported (B.J. Reyes, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 19).

Taylor denied, however, that test was a failure, saying that a successful intercept was not the main objective.

“I wouldn’t call it a failed test, because the intercept was not the primary objective,” Taylor said.  “It’s still considered a success in that we gained great engineering data.  We just don’t know why it didn’t hit,” he said (CNN.com, June 19).

U.S. and defense industry officials plan to conduct an in-depth analysis of the test over the next month and will use the results to improve the missile defense system, Taylor said.

“The next scheduled test will be in the fall and we’ll see what lessons we’ve learned,” Taylor said.  “You test a little, you learn a lot and you continue to go forward.  This is rocket science,” he said (Associated Press/FOXNews.com, June 18).

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U.S. Plans:  West Coast Mayor Opposes Sea-Based X-Band Radar

The mayor of Everett, Wash., met with high-ranking U.S. military officials in Washington last week in an attempt to prevent the U.S. Defense Department from stationing the Sea-Based Test X-Band Radar (SBX) — a component in the planned U.S. missile defense system — in the city (see GSN, March 11).

Everett Mayor Frank Anderson refused to say with whom he met, but did describe one official as someone with direct access to Missile Defense Agency Director Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish.  The city is concerned that the radar could affect local hospital equipment and interfere with radio communications.

“We are going to work hard and push forward with everything in our power to discourage this from coming here,” Anderson said.  “Public health is a big issue; it has to be our No. 1 concern.  And great things are happening in Everett in terms of economic development,” he said.

The radar system is set to be equipped with measures to prevent it from interfering with medical or radio equipment, said MDA spokesman Rick Lehner.  “There’s software included in the radar to prevent it from emitting emission that could damage things like that,” he said.

The agency is expected to release a final environmental impact statement on the SBX radar project next month, according to the Seattle Times.  The agency is then expected to choose one out of six sites, including Everett, for the system by September, Lehner said (Rachel Tuinstra, Seattle Times, June 18).

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Radiological Weapons:  Laos Denies Involvement in Thai Cesium Incident

Laos yesterday denied involvement in efforts to smuggle radioactive materials into Thailand (see GSN, June 18).

Thai authorities last week arrested a man in Bangkok who was attempting to sell cesium 137.  During interrogations, the man said the material was smuggled from Russia into Laos and that additional quantities were still being stored there.

Laotian authorities, however, have found no radioactive materials after investigating the claim, Laotian Foreign Minister Somsavat Lengsavat said.

“We have no idea what kind of substance it is.  I am surprised about the report,” Somsavat said.  “Please do not involve Laos in every bad story about what Thai people have done,” he added (The Nation/BBC Worldwide Monitoring, June 19).

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