By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire
EVIAN, France — The Group of Eight today released a report praising the “substantial progress” achieved in helping to secure and dispose of Russian WMD materials to prevent them from falling into terrorist hands, but also called for progress to continue (see GSN, May 30).
The G-8 effort, the Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction was initiated during the G-8 summit last year in Kananaskis, Canada (see GSN, June 28, 2002). The partnership calls for G-8 members — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and United States — to provide $20 billion over 10 years to fund nonproliferation projects, primarily in Russia.
According to a report released here today at the G-8 summit, a group of senior G-8 officials has determined that “substantial progress” has been made in translating the partnership into concrete nonproliferation projects. “At the same time, much work remains to be done,” the report says.
The report praises progress on implementing several contentious partnership guidelines that form a framework for the negotiation of specific projects, such as tax exemption and liability issues (see GSN, May 22). In addition, a proposal to help simplify access to project sites by reducing prior notification requirements from 45 days to 30 days is considered an “improvement” but is still contentious to some partnership members, the report says. It adds that this proposal should continue to be evaluated over the next year.
In its report, the G-8 also praised progress made in launching new cooperation projects with Russia. For example, new projects designed to aid in the destruction of former nuclear submarines have been launched at two Russian shipyards on Russia’s east coast, according to the report. It also says that agreements have been reached on a program to end Russian production of weapon-grade plutonium and on the acceleration of efforts to secure Russian stockpiles of fissile materials and nuclear weapons (see GSN, May 28). In addition, the report highlights the progress made in improving security at Russian biological research facilities and in the conversion for former WMD production sites to produce commercial products.
The report warns, however, that for all the progress made in launching cooperative projects with Russia, “sustained and broadened efforts will be needed.”
In addition, the G-8 report also calls for further outreach efforts in both new partnership members and targets. For example, Ukraine has presented an official application to become a partnership recipient country, in addition to Russia, according to the report. While the G-8 answered Ukraine’s request positively “in principle,” the partnership is still in its initial phase and thereby focused on projects within Russia, the report says. The senior officials group has expressed a readiness, however, to enter into preliminary discussions with countries willing to adhere to the partnership’s guidelines, it says, adding that some G-8 members have already begun pursuing projects in other former Soviet states.
The European Union has decided to organize an interparliamentary conference on the partnership in November in Strasbourg, the report says, adding that the decision to hold such a conference is “fully supported” by the G-8.
Nongovernmental Experts Also Push for Continued G-8 Efforts
Speaking Saturday in Morzine, near Evian, a panel of nonproliferation experts praised the initial results of the G-8 nonproliferation efforts.
The global partnership was “urgently needed” in Russia because of the difficulties Moscow had previously had in securing nuclear materials and stockpiles of chemical weapons, said Vladimir Orlov, founding director of the PIR Center for Policy Studies in Russia. For example, a 1994 Russian government document described the lack of physical protection, as well as poor security, at a naval facility on the northern Kola Peninsula that housed stockpiles of enriched uranium, Orlov said. The same facility would have much better security today because of increased international assistance, made possible through the partnership, he said.
Russia itself is applying more resources to the security problem, Orlov said. For example, Moscow has agreed to provide $2 billion over the next 10 years to the partnership, making it the second largest donor to the effort behind the United States, he said. In addition, eight leading Russian security experts have recently presented recommendations on further implementation of the partnership to Russian President Vladimir Putin, he said.
The concern now is whether Russia will meet its funding pledge, as well as whether it will fully meet the principles set forth in the partnership, Orlov said. For its part, the G-8 also needs to develop a schedule for the provision of pledged funding, he said.
While in the last year there has been “more good news … than bad news” concerning the security of Russian WMD materials, such materials are still at risk, according to Orlov. In January, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that intercepted communications from Chechen militants expressed an interest in sabotaging nuclear facilities and capturing nuclear materials, he said.
Another concern is the status of former Soviet weapons scientists, who are feared to be potential sources of information and expertise for rogue states and terrorist groups. Despite the risk posed by such scientists, Russia has chosen to focus its initial efforts on disposing of strategic submarines and its vast chemical weapons arsenal, Orlov said.
He nevertheless defended Moscow’s priorities, arguing that disposing of actual weapons was a sensible first step, in part because those activities would attract international attention.
The threat posed by scientists potentially aiding terrorist groups or other states may also be exaggerated, according to another expert. Rudimentary information on making weapons of mass destruction is easily available, said Laura Holgate of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, so restricting access to WMD materials should be the primary concern.
Additional Areas
Another possible area for possible increased cooperation is the disposal of Russian general-purpose nuclear submarines, said Sverre Lodgaard, director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Russia currently has about 100 such submarines that need to be scrapped, at a cost of millions of dollars per submarine, he said.
Norway, which has sent a letter of intent to France regarding joining the global partnership, is soon set to enter into an agreement with Russia to aid in the disposal of two general-purpose nuclear submarines, Lodgaard said.
Lodgaard also called for a “crash program” to accelerate the blending down of stockpiles of highly enriched uranium for later use as fuel in civilian nuclear power plants. Stockpiles of highly enriched uranium pose a greater threat than plutonium because terrorists could develop a crude nuclear device more easily with uranium, he said.
By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire
U.S President George W. Bush proposed Saturday a new international effort to help block illegal shipments of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technologies.
The United States has already begun contacting a number of countries, such as Poland, on the development of new legal agreements authorizing the search of planes and ships carrying suspect cargo, Bush said during a press conference in Krakow, Poland. Legal agreements developed through the Proliferation Security Initiative would also provide authority to seize illegal shipments of WMD- or missile-related components if discovered.
“When weapons of mass destruction or their components are in transit, we must have the means and authority to seize them,” Bush said.
The issue of the legality of stopping and seizing suspect cargo was dramatically demonstrated late last year when a joint U.S.-Spanish effort briefly seized a North Korean ship carrying at least a dozen disassembled Scud ballistic missiles to Yemen.
Bush said he would work to continue to add new members to the initiative. “We will extend this partnership as broadly as possible to keep the world’s most destructive weapons away from our shores and out of the hands of our common enemies,” he said.
The initiative is likely to be a topic of discussion during a one-on-one meeting between Bush and French President Jacques Chirac scheduled for today during the Group of Eight summit in Evian, France, according to Chirac spokeswoman Catharine Colonna. While France is not opposed to consideration of the issue, one concern is the legal basis for the stopping and seizure of WMD- and missile-related technologies, Colonna said during a press conference. She added that the planned initiative could also be included in a larger nonproliferation system.
By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire
WASHINGTON — A range of new vaccines, real-time multiagent detection systems, safer decontamination solutions and less burdensome protective clothing are among the numerous measures sought by the U.S. military to better protect U.S. forces against chemical and biological warfare threats.
The various needs — and the solutions planned to address them — were outlined in the annual report of the Defense Department’s Chemical and Biological Defense Program provided to Congress in April and released to the public last month.
To develop improved chemical and biological defense technologies, the Pentagon this year requested more than $1.1 billion to research, develop and acquire chemical and biological defenses in fiscal 2004, up $35 million from the previous year’s request.
At a March congressional hearing, the senior Pentagon official overseeing the effort said U.S. forces are becoming better prepared for operating in chemical and biological warfare environments, but conceded that there are shortcomings.
“I believe that the forward-deployed troops are the best protected that they can be,” said Dale Klein, assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical and biological defense.
Nevertheless, “we wish we had better standoff detectors, we wish we had better antibiotics, we wish … we knew what was coming so that we could detect to prevent rather than detect to treat,” he said.
Michael Powers, a senior fellow at the Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute here who recently completed a review of U.S. biological defense activities, similarly said there are two particular weaknesses in U.S. biological defense capabilities in particular, both on the prevention side: detection and vaccine availability.
The detection weakness is of particular concern because the military’s approach to chemical and biological defense focuses on preventing contamination. Post-exposure treatment is a less preferable option, as it would inevitably require removing soldiers from the battlefield.
“Their emphasis is really on preventing exposure rather than preventing disease,” he said.
Detection Capabilities
The report specifically says there is a need for battlefield chemical and biological detection systems that are able to detect and identify in real time all known chemical and biological agents.
“Current technologies require a high level of logistical support and lack discrimination in biological standoff detection,” it said. “Real-time detection of biological agents is currently unavailable and is unlikely in the near- to mid-term, though investment efforts are reducing detection times.”
Detection devices are needed for a range of entities, from ships to vehicles to soldiers, according to the report.
Soldier Protection Systems
Insufficient detection systems, Powers said, hinder soldier contamination avoidance efforts because soldiers may not have enough time to don their protective equipment.
“What you want to do is provide ample warning that an agent could be moving through your area so you could don your gas mask,” he said.
The recent Pentagon report says efforts are underway to develop protective clothing that is longer lasting and less burdensome to the soldier in terms of weight and heat.
“Individual protection equipment must also provide protection against emerging threats, such as novel agents or toxic chemicals,” it says, suggesting that the challenge will be difficult and complex. “Integral respiratory protection requires tradeoffs between physiological performance parameters such as pulmonary function, field of regard, speech intelligibility and anthropometric sizing against constraints of cost, size/weight, protection time and interfacing with other equipment.”
A breakthrough could be pending, according to the report, as a new mask now in the final stages of testing is expected to offer increased protection, improved comfort and usability.
Funding also is directed toward technologies to reduce the weight, volume, cost and deployability of chemical- and biological-safe shelters and to integrate skin and respiratory protection systems into major weapons systems.
That, too, can be a challenge, as protection is sought for incorporation into major land, sea, and air weapons systems — for instance, within the Army’s Comanche, Crusader, Bradley, Breacher, Heavy Assault Bridge, Future Scout and Cavalry systems.
Decontamination Systems
More efficient, less destructive decontamination systems also are needed, the report says.
“Existing systems are effective against a wide variety of threat agents, yet are slow and labor intensive and present logistical, environmental, material and safety burdens,” it says.
According to the report, existing systems are inadequate for decontaminating electronic equipment or for a large area, such as a port or airfield. The military is searching for decontaminants that are not water-based or corrosive, can be used on equipment to neutralize a wide range of agents, pose no “unacceptable” health hazards and require reduced manpower and logistics to implement.
Medical Defense
Another major biological defense weakness, said Powers, is the availability of vaccines for the many possible biological weapons threats.
The nature of the science and technology, he said, forces the Defense Department to develop specific vaccines for a broad array of potential threat agents, often after a lengthy testing processes for safety.
The military currently lacks Food and Drug Administration-licensed vaccines for a number of biological weapons threats. Work is underway to develop and license vaccines for Q fever, tularemia and smallpox. There are options, however, for the development and licensing of 10 other vaccines, the report says.
In the next two years, the military expects to have licensed a paste for reducing chemical agent exposure to skin and a pretreatment for protection against soman, a nerve agent. It also aims to produce a new system for identifying and diagnosing biological agent exposure, licensing the antibiotic cyprofloxacin for treating anthrax and approving a shorter dosing schedule for administering anthrax vaccine, the report said.
Anthrax vaccination currently requires a primary series of six doses given over 18 months, with an annual booster to maintain immunity.
“The protocol makes it difficult to complete before deployment of forces or to ensure that mobile forces, once deployed, are administered the proper regimen,” it said.
Work also is underway to assess the effectiveness of current medical countermeasures on nontraditional chemical and biological agents and to assess the effects of low dose exposure to chemical agents on soldiers.
Powers says the military is much more prepared to deal with the chemical threat than the biological threat.”
“Longstanding programs within the Chemical Corps, a lot of the training and education programs that have been underway for several years if not decades have really focused on the chemical weapons threat, or dealing with the biological threat in sort of the context of a hazardous materials response,” Powers said, noting that the military is much more prepared to deal with a chemical threat than a biological one.
“What DOD I think has come to realize in the past couple of years … is a sort of gradual shift to recognize the difference in both the threat and necessary response for chemical and biological weapons and a recognition of the important role played by the public health and the medical care providers within DOD in dealing with the biological weapons challenge,” he added.
An Iraqi scientist has told Bush administration officials that Saddam Hussein placed the country’s chemical and biological weapons programs close to commercial facilities in an effort to produce the weapons on a moment’s notice, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN , May 29).
Positioning the alleged WMD programs near commercial facilities also helped to keep them under wraps, the scientist said. In a May 7 White House document made available to the Post, the scientist describes Iraq as having “carefully embedded its (weapons of mass destruction) infrastructure in dual-use facilities” so the weapons could be made quickly in the event of an attack.
According to the Post, the commercial facilities also made legitimate products such as pesticides, but “such sites also could employ ‘just in time’ manufacturing and delivery systems to reduce the need for stockpiles,” the document noted.
Administration officials have pointed toward the recent discovery of two trailers in Iraq that could have been used to concoct biological weapons. The trailers — one captured by Kurdish forces near the northern Iraqi city of Mosul and turned over to U.S. troops in late April and a second discovered by U.S. troops at the al-Kindi Research, Testing, Development and Engineering site in Mosul in early May — have long been suspected of being mobile biological production plants (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, June 2).
The United States is ramping up efforts to find weapons of mass destruction, sending in the Iraq Survey Group, which will consist of 1,300 to 1,400 personnel. The team will be led by Maj. Gen. Keith Dayton, who is scheduled to arrive in Baghdad today.
“This will be a deliberate process and it will be a long-term effort. We will be using all sources to put together pieces of an incredibly complex jigsaw puzzle,” Dayton said (Politi/Alden, Financial Times, May 31).
Some Looted Barrels Recovered
U.S. officials, meanwhile, are busy recovering barrels that were used to store nuclear material that were looted from Iraqi government facilities.
U.S. forces are paying $3 for barrels that originally contained uranium and were being used by civilians for storing food and washing clothes, Reuters reported.
“We recovered 100 barrels, but we do not know how many more are out there,” said Lt. Col. Brent Bredehoft, head of the U.S. unit searching for the radioactive material (Reuters/Sydney Morning Herald, June 2).
Today and over the weekend, top U.S. and British officials defended their prewar intelligence estimates of Iraq’s WMD capabilities, according to reports.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair today supported British intelligence assessments on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction that were released prior to the recent war.
“I stand absolutely, 100 percent” behind the intelligence information, Blair said this afternoon at a press conference held during the Group of Eight’s summit in Evian, France (Mike Nartker, GSN, June 2).
Yesterday, Blair said he had seen new evidence of Iraq’s WMD arsenal “which is not yet public,” adding that he had “no doubt at all” that Iraq possessed illegal weapons (Sparrow/Brogan, London Telegraph, June 2).
Recently, there has been increasing criticism of information contained in a British dossier released last year on the threat posed by Iraqi biological and chemical weapons. For example, the dossier said the Iraqi military could deploy such weapons within 45 minutes of receiving an order to do so — a claim some of Blair’s critics have called exaggerated.
Blair denied that any British intelligence had been “doctored” prior to release, saying that the British Parliament’s Joint Intelligence Committee had first cleared such information. Blair also denied recent allegations made by former Cabinet member Claire Short that he and U.S. President George W. Bush made a secret agreement last year to invade Iraq.
During his address today, Blair called for patience in assessing the results of the coalition’s search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. An international survey group is set to begin its work in Iraq this week, and the results will be released upon completion, Blair said (see related GSN story, today). He refused to comment directly, however, on whether an independent inquiry of the disputed intelligence information will be conducted.
“Have a little patience,” Blair said (Nartker, GSN).
Bush Claims Smoking Gun
Late last week, U.S. President George W. Bush told a Polish television station that the discovery of two Iraqi mobile laboratories meant the United States has “found the weapons of mass destruction,” the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, May 29).
Officials did not find any illegal or dangerous biological agents in the two trailers, but the vehicles did contain laboratory equipment. The threat of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction was the major reason Bush cited for invading and occupying Iraq, but U.S. forces have yet to find any illicit weapons or biological agents that could be used to build weapons of mass destruction.
“We found the weapons of mass destruction,” Bush said. “We found biological laboratories. You remember when [U.S. Secretary of State] Colin Powell stood up in front of the world, and he said, Iraq has got laboratories, mobile labs to build biological weapons. They’re illegal. They’re against the United Nations resolutions, and we’ve so far discovered two. And we’ll find more weapons as time goes on. But for those who say we haven’t found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons, they wrong. We found them,” he added.
U.S. officials have been shifting away from the prewar claims that Iraq had large WMD stocks and posed a direct threat to the United States, the Post reported.
“Just because they found two mobile labs, to say that’s evidence of weapons of mass destruction is absurd,” said Kristian Denny, a spokeswoman for Senator Bob Graham (D-Fla.) (Dana Milbank, Washington Post, June 1).
Tenet Defends CIA Analysis
In the face of growing criticism, CIA Director George Tenet Friday defended his agency’s analysis of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction capabilities, the Post reported (see GSN, May 30).
Tenet is sending Congress “all the statements made by the administration on weapons of mass destruction and the underlying intelligence that supported those statements,” according to Senator John Warner (R-Va.), the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Warner said that he might support an investigation of the intelligence that supported the U.S. invasion. Warner said, however, that his actions should not be construed as criticism of the agency or Bush’s decision to invade.
Democratic lawmakers were more critical.
“If we don’t find these weapons of mass destruction, it will represent a serious intelligence failure or the manipulation of that intelligence to keep the American people in the dark,” according to Graham.
Representative Jane Harmon (D-Calif.), the ranking member on the House intelligence committee, said that she is concerned about weapons of mass destruction that have not been found and might be in the hands of U.S. enemies.
If weapons of mass destruction are buried in Iraq, “someone knows where that is, Saddam Hussein and his sons may still be alive, and the major moral underpinning of our war, to prevent him from using (weapons of mass destruction) against American interests and Iraqi citizens, may still be out there,” Harmon said (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, June 2).
Powell Was Frustrated at Holes in Allegations, Report Says
Before the invasion, the Bush administration was seriously divided over the merits of the evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, according to U.S. News and World Report.
On Feb. 1, 24 U.S. officials reportedly met to review Secretary Powell’s pending speech to the United Nations, in which he would allege an extensive Iraqi WMD program.
Powell reportedly became frustrated with holes in the U.S. allegations.
“I’m not reading this,” Powell reportedly said after throwing some pages of the speech in the air. “This is bull----,” he added.
In the speech he presented to the United Nations, Powell excluded some allegations that did not stand up to a close examination, according to U.S. News and World Report.
Lower ranking officials were also distressed.
“The policy decisions weren’t matching the reports we were reading every day,” said a U.S. intelligence official (U.S. News and World Report, June 9).
Greg Thielmann, a recently retired State Department intelligence analyst who was directly involved in reviewing intelligence on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, said that “there is a lot of sorrow and anger at the way intelligence was misused,” according to Newsweek (Newsweek, June 9).
U.S. scientists have installed wind strength and direction sensors in the Washington, D.C., area to reduce the consequences of a potential chemical, biological or radioactive terrorist attack, the Washington Post reported today.
The system, called DCNet, consists so far of 30-foot aluminum weather towers erected near sensitive sites in the area, including the U.S. Capitol, the White House, tourist spots and highways. The sensors are designed to forecast how urban “wind fields” might disperse fallout from a weapon of mass destruction, according to the Post. The sensors will sample the wind 10 times per second, and data will be downloaded to experts every 15 minutes.
“The Washington exercise is seen as a prototype of what could eventually be a nationwide program,” said Bruce Hicks, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s air resources laboratory, which created the $500,000 network. “The system now in place offers this area an unparalleled capability to plan for possible attacks and to respond if one were to occur,” he added.
A sister program, called SensorNet, has been launched by the U.S. Energy Department, the Post reported. This $3 million program has added gamma-radiation detectors to the towers to test their feasibility in detecting a radiological terrorist attack.
The U.S. House Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats and International Relations is scheduled to hold a hearing today to examine technologies that model the spread of airborne biological, chemical and radiological agents.
“In the Cold War, we plotted the course of ballistic missiles,” said Chairman Christopher Shays (R-Conn.) in a press release last week. “In the war against weapons of mass destruction, we need to be able to predict the path of toxic clouds across new battlefields abroad and here at home,” he added (Spencer Hsu, Washington Post, June 2).
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