Threat Assessment:  U.N. Panel Finds No Iraq-Al-Qaeda Link, But Warns of Al-Qaeda WMD Ambitions

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

UNITED NATIONS — The chairman of the Security Council group monitoring sanctions against al-Qaeda and the Taliban said yesterday that while al-Qaeda is still able to function in many countries, the group has seen no evidence of a link between the terrorist organization and the former government Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein (see GSN, May 23, 2002).

Michael Chandler, the chairman of the monitoring group set up under Resolution 1267, told reporters, “Nothing has come to our notice, reported to us … that would indicate links between al-Qaeda and Iraq.  That doesn’t mean to say it doesn’t exist, but as far as we are concerned, the answer is no.”

This morning, Chandler issued a “clarification” on his remarks about the lack of a link between Iraq and al-Qaeda, in an apparent attempt to avoid contradicting the United States.  The report “does not address this issue and the monitoring group has reached no conclusions concerning these matters,” says a statement released to the media.  “Given the nature and intensity of the crisis surrounding Iraq ... and attention being directed to such issues by the Security Council itself, an inquiry by [the group] was considered inappropriate,” the statement says.

The United States argued in justifying the invasion of Iraq that the Hussein government and al-Qaeda were working together.  In particular, Secretary of State Colin Powell, addressing the council Feb. 5, said al-Qaeda was “operating freely in Baghdad.”  This “sinister nexus” between Iraq and al-Qaeda means terrorists “could turn to Iraq for expertise” in producing weapons of mass destruction, Powell said.

Ambassador Heraldo Munoz of Chile, the chairman of the council’s committee on al-Qaeda sanctions, said such a connection “never came to our knowledge before Powell made his statement.  We did not get any information from any state that there is a link between al-Qaeda and Iraq at that point.”

On the other hand, the terrorist group accused of masterminding the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in New York and Washington, as well as numerous other attacks around the world, is still able to function by adapting to the changing political realities, said Chandler and Munoz, who were speaking at a news conference introducing the group’s new report on the effectiveness of the sanctions.  Munoz said the report details “the success of the measures against the Taliban and al-Qaeda.  [However], our progress has yielded new ways for [them] to organize,” he said.  This is a long-term task.”

The report, covering January to May, says, “There were marked successes in the fight against the al-Qaeda network,” including the arrest of members of Osama bin Laden’s “original command team” and the “breakup of cells in a number of countries.”  However, the network “still pose[s] a significant threat to international peace and security,” according to the report, and there is evidence the network “has been able to reconstitute its levels of support” in numerous countries, including Afghanistan.

Panel Concerned About “Third Generation Al-Qaeda”

Of particular concern is the emergence of what the report calls the “third generation al-Qaeda,” terrorists who are operating independently since the al-Qaeda command was driven out of Afghanistan in late 2001.

“The image that is emerging of the network is of a new generation of Islamic fundamental extremism such that al-Qaeda can be viewed both as an organization and an ideology; a ‘Third Generation al-Qaeda,’ which is becoming self-perpetuating,” the report says.  “This makes it all the more difficult to track and disrupt elements of the newly emerging network and reinforces the need for all states with known al-Qaeda elements to clamp down hard on their activities.”

According to Chandler, “The newness of what we are saying is that we are seeing the people who want to carry out attacks and work within the ideology who … never went to Afghanistan, were never part of the element of al-Qaeda as it evolved.”

The first generation, Chandler said, were those who joined bin Laden in Afghanistan in the 1990s.  The second generation are those who joined after “the demise of the Taliban and the dispersion of al-Qaeda,” he said.  The third generation, such as the suspects in the bombings of Casablanca, Morocco, on May 17, were all locals with no ties to the al-Qaeda command, he said.

“Further success in bringing down the al-Qaeda network will require a sustained international effort, with continued and enhanced information sharing and coordination,” Chandler added.  “This is not something any one country is going to do on its own.”

The international efforts to crack down on arms trafficking in general and in strengthening national legislation on exports is having an effect on al-Qaeda, the report says.  However, al-Qaeda is “still able to acquire adequate quantities of weapons and explosives.  Al-Qaeda continues attempts to acquire WMD.”

Al-Qaeda has a “WMD Committee,” according to the report, “which is known to have approached a number of Muslim scientists … to assist the terrorist network with the creation and procurement of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.”  However, the group says it would be difficult for al-Qaeda to build and deploy a nuclear weapon.  “Of greater concern is the possibility of al-Qaeda acquiring a WMD and/or a delivery means from ‘rogue’ elements or as a result of lax security at a nuclear weapons arsenal,” the report says.

The monitoring group suggests, “In order to reduce the chances of al-Qaeda obtaining a nuclear device, special efforts must be undertaken to insure that all countries which possess nuclear weapons maintain the strictest controls and security regimes at all times. … These regimes should be constantly subject to audit and scrutiny.”  The report says nations should “as the first line of defense against such a threat” join the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM), as well as other relevant treaties such as the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention.

The effectiveness of the CCPNM is important because, the report says, “there is a much higher probability that the network will continue its efforts to develop an improvised radiological dispersion device,” in other words, a “dirty bomb.”  The availability of the necessary radioactive material is greater and the technology is easier than for a nuclear weapon, the report says.

In January, the council adopted Resolution 1455, extending the mandate of the monitoring group.  This report is the first one under the new mandate.  The sanctions involve bans on financial transactions and travel by individuals tied to the two groups and an arms embargo against them.  The individuals subject to sanctions are on a list maintained by the council.  The list “is only a small sub-set of the critical membership of the al-Qaeda network,” Chandler said.  “The list should be expanded to take in a much broader set of al-Qaeda members and associates and those who have supported them.”

Former Chechen President Added to Sanctions List

The revised list for the first time includes a Chechen — former President Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev — thus accepting the Russian claim that Chechen rebels are linked to al-Qaeda.

The report says there has been progress in freezing al-Qaeda assets and “progress has also been made in tracking down, inhibiting and incarcerating key financial intermediaries.”  On the other hand, al-Qaeda “continued to exploit loopholes or to develop new technologies to acquire, utilize and distribute funds and logistical resources.”  Those sources include the drug trade, fundraising through businesses and charities and common crime including credit card fraud and cigarette smuggling, according to the report.

The travel ban “as it now stands, is to serve as a political statement” of nations’ commitment not to grant al-Qaeda members refuge, the report says, however, “as a practical matter, few, if any, al-Qaeda members are likely to seek open entry or transit.”  No such cases have been reported to the committee.  There is also no evidence that anyone on the council’s list has attempted to breach the arms embargo, nevertheless, the groups “are still able to acquire adequate quantities of weapons and explosives where and when they need them.”

The report will be published July 11 and the council will review the work of the sanctions committee July 29, Munoz said.

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Iraq:  Recovered Materials Are Evidence of Concealed WMD Programs, White House Says

The recent recovery of documents and equipment related to Iraq’s pre-1991 nuclear program indicates that former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s regime had maintained concealed WMD programs, the Bush administration said yesterday (see GSN, June 26).

Beginning last month, former Iraqi nuclear scientist Mahdi Shukur Obeidi provided equipment components and documents to CIA officials in Baghdad, U.S. officials said.  Obeidi said he kept the materials buried in his backyard as “part of a high-level plan to reconstitute the nuclear weapons program once sanctions were ended,” White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer said.

Fleischer said the case of Obeidi demonstrates the challenges facing coalition forces searching for evidence of Iraqi WMD efforts.

“What’s notable in that this case illustrates the extreme challenge that the world community faces in Iraq as we search for evidence of WMD programs that were designed to elude detection by international inspectors,” Fleischer said.  “Throughout the entire inspection process, Iraqis were scared to death to talk because they would die if they would,” he added (John Lumpkin, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 26).

However, the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday that the discovery of those components did not imply that Iraq has reactivated its nuclear-weapons program, the Associated Press reported.

“The findings and comments of Obeidi appear to confirm that there has been no post-1991 nuclear weapons program in Iraq and are consistent with our reports to the [U.N.] Security Council,” said IAEA spokesman Mark Gwozdecky (Associated Press/Jordan Times, June 27).

The willingness of other Iraqi scientists to cooperate with the United States will depend on how Obeidi is treated, according to experts.

“Many scientists are watching the Obeidi case as they decide whether to come forward,” said Corey Hinderstein of the Institute for Science and International Security.

Obeidi first indicated his willingness to come forward during a late April meeting with ISIS head David Albright, according to the Associated Press.  After the meeting, Albright began contacting U.S. agencies for help.

“I was rebuffed by the Pentagon and relayed a new request for help through three different agencies,” Albright said.

On May 16, U.S. military personnel and representatives from the Iraqi National Congress visited Obeidi’s home, telling his son that they would return the next day to speak with Obeidi, AP reported.  Obeidi himself, who had previously contacted the CIA, met with CIA representatives May 17 before seeking out military officials later that day.  He then told Albright he was ready to cooperate in exchange for asylum for himself and his family, according to AP.

Over the next 10 days, however, Obeidi’s talks with the CIA bogged down after U.S. officials hesitated at his asylum request, according to Albright.  On June 1 and 2, Obeidi provided U.S. officials with the nuclear-related equipment components and documents. 

The next day though, U.S. troops took Obeidi into custody, according to AP.  The Army was unaware that Obeidi had been in contact with the CIA, U.S. officials said.  While Obeidi was later released, he became scared by his arrest and went into hiding.  Obeidi remained in contact with the CIA but became increasingly upset as they told him they were unable to help him leave Iraq at that point, AP reported. 

Soon after, Obeidi learned that the United States and the United Kingdom were planning to go public with the information he provided without giving him assurances about his future.  Feeling betrayed, Obeidi, with the aid of Albright, went public himself this week through an interview with CNN.

“After learning that Obeidi had spoken to CNN, he and his family were taken out of Iraq by the CIA,” Albright said (Dafna Linzer, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 27).

Suspect Trailers

Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department said yesterday that the department believes that two trailers recovered in Iraq were mobile biological facilities.

In a report released last month, the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency came to a conclusion that the trailers were intended for use as mobile biological weapons laboratories.  In a classified June 2 memo, however, State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) said it was too early to conclude that the trailers were evidence that Iraq had a biological weapons program.

State spokesman Richard Boucher said yesterday that it was the department’s view that the trailers were mobile biological weapons laboratories.

“Our view and the secretary’s view, the U.S. government view, is that these are mobile biological weapons laboratories,” Boucher said.  “This view was expressed in a public paper put forth by the CIA and DIA analysts who had worked most extensively on the matter, most extensively and directly on the matter,” he said.

The bureau’s memo did not dispute the CIA and DIA’s analyses of the trailers, but merely raised additional questions to be considered, Boucher said.

“So there’s no question of INR contradicting the CIA conclusions,” Boucher said.  “They just raised some issues that they felt should be answered, needed to be answered, before conclusions like that were reached.  And, indeed, we have been assured by those who reached the conclusions that those issues were considered,” he added (U.S. State Department release, June 27).

The apparently differing State and CIA analyses raises questions about the intelligence process, said Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute.

“It’s a little hard to understand how the president could be using this example in public speeches or public pronouncements to prove the Iraqis had weapons of mass destruction when his own State Department doesn’t buy that interpretation,” Thompson said.  “At the very least there is an interagency coordination issue here, but obviously there’s a larger question about how intelligence is being done,” Thompson said (Robert Schlesinger, Boston Globe, June 27).

U.S. Intelligence Review

The U.S. House of Representatives yesterday voted to defeat two amendments to the fiscal 2004 intelligence authorization bill put forward by Democratic lawmakers that would have sought to expand the inquiry into the U.S. handling of WMD-related intelligence.

The House voted 239-185 against an amendment offered by Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) that would have required the U.S. comptroller general to examine U.S. intelligence sharing with U.N. inspectors.

The House also voted 347-76 against an amendment offered by Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) that would have required the CIA’s inspector general to audit all telephone and electronic communications between the agency and Vice President Dick Cheney related to Iraq’s WMD efforts (Ken Guggenheim, Associated Press/Boston Globe, June 27).

Kucinich, a Democratic candidate for president, said his amendment sought to “probe what role the vice president played in causing the CIA to disseminate unreliable, raw, previously undisseminated, untrue information about Iraq’s alleged threat to the United States.”

Representative Ray LaHood (R-Ill.), a member of the House Intelligence Committee, described Kucinich’s amendment as a “cheap shot” and said it was an attempt to “besmirch the record of this administration, to besmirch the good name of the vice president” (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, June 27).

British Intelligence Review

Former British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said today that some sections of two British reports on Iraq’s WMD efforts — one released in September of last year and one released in February — were “plainly inaccurate.”

Among the errors in the reports were assertions that Hussein had rebuilt chemical weapons production facilities, that Iraq had a nuclear weapons program and that Hussein attempted to purchase uranium from Africa, Cook said.

“For me, the real issue is that we were told things as a justification for war which have plainly turned out to be wrong since the war was over,” Cook said.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair defended the September report Wednesday before the British Parliament’s House of Commons

“It is important, amid all this coverage, to realize that the contents of that dossier — and, indeed, of the first dossier which I presented to the House — are accurate,” Blair said (Robert Barr, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 27).

The chairman of the House of Commons’ Foreign Affairs Committee, Donald Anderson, has accused British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw of denying the committee “decisive evidence” as it conducts its inquiry into whether intelligence on Iraqi WMD efforts was exaggerated.

Anderson had demanded that his committee be allowed to question the head of the Joint Intelligence Committee, according to BBC News.  Straw, however, said that the Commons’ security and intelligence committee, which meets in private, should only be allowed to question the JIC chairman.  Straw offered instead to privately read sections of the JIC’s intelligence assessment so that it can be compared to the September report.

“What you are saying in effect is that you using this jurisdictional point to stop the committee having what could be absolutely decisive evidence,” Anderson said.

“I will be producing decisive evidence, in any event, and unless you are saying I have come here not to tell the truth and to tell other than the truth, I ought to be believed,” Straw replied (BBC News, June 27).

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U.S. Response:  Committee Approves $369 Billion Defense Budget

The U.S. House Appropriations Committee yesterday passed a $368.7 billion fiscal 2004 defense appropriations bill, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, June 26).

“There’s no doubt the American public is very supportive of our spending sizable amounts of money for national security,” said Representative Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.).

The actual defense spending for fiscal 2004 is likely to rise as additional funds are needed for the occupation of Iraq.  In fiscal 2003, lawmakers approved $426.7 billion in defense spending (Dan Morgan, Washington Post, June 27).

This year’s initial appropriation is $4.3 billion more than Congress’s initial appropriation last year and $3 billion less than U.S. President George W. Bush requested.

The top-ranking Democrat on the committee, Representative David Obey (Wis.), said Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should provide a more thorough explanation for the creation of a special intelligence unit within the Pentagon.

“All I can say is, we are paying for all of this and we should have the answers,” Obey said (Carl Hulse, New York Times, June 27).

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North Korea:  U.S. Ambassador Says Reactor Work Probably Will Stop

The United States will most likely oppose continued construction on two nuclear reactors in North Korea, the U.S. ambassador to Japan said today (see GSN, June 25).

“It’s a little hard for me to understand how you complete those reactors on one hand, and urge the North Koreans to dismantle their nuclear capability on the other hand,” Howard Baker said.  “My guess is that if … they do not decide to engage in dismantlement of their weapons program, it is unlikely that the United States would support the completion of those reactors beyond the commitments that we’ve undertaken in the framework agreement,” he added.

Baker also warned that the threat from North Korea is serious.

“I wonder if the North Korean government understands what a deadly serious game they are playing,” he said (Shingo Ito, Agence France-Presse, June 27).

Japan, however, is not in favor of suspending the reactor work.  Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi said that more negotiations are needed before the reactor project is curtailed.  (Gary Schaefer, Associated Press/London Guardian, June 27).

The project is likely to come to a halt because the United States must sign a protocol to provide water supply tanks to the reactors, the Korea Times reported Wednesday.

“Even if the parties involved find a way to continue the project … the issue of providing water supply tanks to the nuclear plants (which requires the approval of the U.S.) is bound to emerge again,” said a South Korean official.

A South Korean administration official said Washington has already asked for work on the reactors to stop.

“The U.S. has asked for a stop, citing technical issues including provision of parts, so it is becoming more difficult to insist on continuing the project,” the official said.

Some South Korean officials, however, said they want the project to continue.

“Every day we are spending $1 million.  Continuing the project would mean we wouldn’t antagonize the North further in the short term, and also have our invested sum deducted from South Korea’s share once the nuclear issue was resolved and (the parties involved) start discussing aid to the North,” said another official said (Seo Soo-min, Korea Times, June 25).

A senior South Korean official at the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) said the project will most likely be suspended.

“We hope the project will continue, but a suspension may be inevitable now that components cannot be supplied,” the official said. “South Korea will discuss the future of the reactor project with other KEDO member countries — the United States, Japan and the European Union.,” the official added.

KEDO Executive Director Charles Kartman is scheduled to visit Seoul Saturday to discuss the reactor work (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, June 27).

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Pakistan:  Nuclear Weapons Are Securely Controlled, Musharraf Says

Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has said his country’s nuclear weapons are safely under governmental control, the Times of India reported today (see GSN, June 26).

“We are committed to nonproliferation, we are not proliferating at all, our strategic assets are under excellent strong custodial control, there is no chance of this apprehension of the world that they will fall into wrong hands,” Musharraf said.

Musharraf also said there is no proof that Pakistan has provided North Korea with nuclear technologies, as has been alleged.

“In the conventional or the unconventional side we have no linkages whatsoever between Pakistan and North Korea.  It’s story of the past, we have closed this chapter,” he said (Times of India, June 27).

Musharraf said yesterday, however, that Pakistan did purchase shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles from North Korea during a recent 10-month period of heightened tensions between Pakistan and India.

“We realized that there is an imbalance in the air especially,” Musharraf said.  “And we thought that can be neutralized by having more surface-to-air missiles, shoulder-fired, conventional, which we purchased for our own security,” he added.

Musharraf also said yesterday that he hopes the United States would sell sophisticated military equipment to Pakistan, including F-16 fighters and Predator unmanned aerial vehicles.  He warned, however, that Pakistan could look for other sellers if the United States refuses.

“Pakistan will not compromise on its strategy of minimum deterrence,” Musharraf said.  “So we obviously will look everywhere to maintain the strategy of minimum deterrence.  Wherever it may be in the world, we will look for it,” he added (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, June 27).

Meanwhile, Indian officials have expressed both concern and relief after a meeting earlier this week between U.S. President George W. Bush and Musharraf at Camp David.  During a joint press conference following the meeting, Bush announced a proposal for a five-year, $3 billion economic and security assistance package to Pakistan.

Both the Camp David meeting and the U.S. assistance proposal represent an upgrade in U.S.-Pakistani relations, officials said.

The time-frame on the proposal, which would not take effect until 2005, and certain “conditions,” such as addressing proliferation concerns, however, were indications that the U.S. aid proposal is not a “blank check,” officials said (Amit Baruah, The Hindu, June 27).

India yesterday rejected a suggestion made by Musharraf that the United States should involve itself in a “road map” for peace to resolve the conflict over the disputed region of Kashmir.

“We have repeatedly said there is no third party role in the bilateral dialogue ... There is no space for a third party at the table,” Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha said (The Hindu, June 27).

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Russia:  Russia and Norway Set to Sign Agreement on Russian Submarine Disposal

Russia and Norway are expected to sign an agreement Monday on Norwegian funding of the disposal of two Russian nuclear submarines (see GSN, June 26).

Under the agreement, the Norwegian Foreign Ministry will pay more than $5.7 million each to two Russian shipyards, Russian Deputy Atomic Energy minister Sergei Antipov said yesterday.  The agreement was supposed to be signed last month, but was delayed because of Russian insistence that Norway also fund the removal of nuclear waste from the submarines, according to Agence France-Presse (Agence France-Presse, June 27). 

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United States:  Energy Department Discusses Potential Plutonium Pit Plant

A new plutonium plant that would produce triggers for nuclear weapons will have safety features not available when the contaminated Rocky Flats facility was built in Colorado, U.S. Energy Department officials said yesterday (see GSN, June 3).

The officials held a meeting yesterday in Amarillo, Texas, to discuss a possible plant to produce the triggers, or “pits.”  A new plant would begin production in 2020, and the United States says the prospective facility must produce at least 125 pits every year to maintain the nation’s nuclear stockpile.

The Energy Department is considering sites in Amarillo; Carlsbad, N.M.; Los Alamos, N.M.; the Nevada Test Site; and South Carolina’s Savannah River.  The government has been unable to produce pits at full capacity since 1989 when the Rocky Flats plant was shut down for safety and environmental reasons, according to the Amarillo Globe-News.

A new pit facility would focus on safety and environmental concerns, according to Jay Rose, the project’s environmental impact statement manager.  The plant would have an improved fire-suppression system and safer waste disposal plan, Rose said (Rohloff/McBride, Amarillo Globe-News, June 27).

However, some groups have said that the United States does not need to build such a facility, the Environment News Service reported Tuesday.

In a letter delivered to Congress Tuesday, a coalition of several community and government watchdog groups said a new plant would “waste billions of taxpayer dollars, threaten global nuclear nonproliferation efforts and create further environmental contamination and health risks for workers and community members.”

The letter was signed by 120 groups, including the Union of Concerned Scientists, Council for a Livable World and Greenpeace International (Environment News Service, June 24).

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Malaysian Response:  Officials Plan Research Lab to Combat Terrorism

Malaysian authorities plan to spend $58 million to establish a research facility to defend against potential bioterrorist attacks, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, June 25).

“Are we ready to face a bioterrorism attack in this country?  The answer is ‘no,’” said Health Minister Chua Jui Meng.

The center, the National Institute of Natural Products and Vaccinology, is scheduled to open in 2005.  Chua said the government is obliged to protect its citizens from bioterrorism, but the country is currently forced to import vaccines.

“Malaysia must have its own capability to do research,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Straits Times, June 27).

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Russia:  European Union to Provide CW Disposal Equipment Next Year

European Union members are expected to provide Russia with more than $4.5 million worth of engineering and technical equipment next year for Russian chemical weapons storage and disposal facilities, ITAR-Tass reported Wednesday (see GSN, June 10). 

Some of the equipment will be sent to the Gorny chemical weapons disposal plant, said Alexander Kharichev, adviser to the chairman of the Russian State Commission for Chemical Disarmament (ITAR-Tass, JUNE 25 in FBIS-SOV, June 25).

The European Union is currently implementing several programs to aid Russia in disposing of its chemical weapons stockpiles, the Russian Ammunition Agency said Wednesday.

“Russia’s cooperation with the EU in chemical disarmament has been ongoing since 1999 under two programs — Tacis and a joint-action program,” an agency spokesman said.  “A number of projects totaling several million euros are currently being implemented,” the spokesman added.

The Tacis program was responsible for the establishment of an environmental monitoring system in the Saratov region, where the Gorny disposal plant is located, according to Interfax.  In addition, a project in the city of Dzerzhinsk to develop building decontamination technologies and a project in the city of Cheboksary to develop medical and environmental monitoring systems are being implemented through the Tacis program (Interfax, June 25 in FBIS-SOV, June 25).

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CD:  Outgoing Ambassadors Criticize Geneva Forum’s Stalemate

By Greg Webb

Global Security Newswire

Two senior diplomats yesterday bitterly lamented the longtime standstill in the U.N. Conference on Disarmament and its failure to agree on what to discuss (see GSN, Jan. 24).

Ambassadors Christopher Westdal of Canada and Henrik Salander of Sweden criticized the forum’s inactivity as they each delivered their final address to the body after serving four-year postings in Geneva.  Yesterday’s meeting marked the end of the second of three sessions the group holds each year.

The Conference on Disarmament is the only multilateral negotiating body dedicated to disarmament issues.  While it has seen some success — including the successful negotiation of the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1992 and the drafting of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1996 — the 66-nation forum has not agreed on a negotiating agenda since 1997.

In prepared remarks yesterday, Westdal said, “We seem further from action now than we were when I arrived.”

“We’ve gained no traction, had no work of substance here, nothing to negotiate, nothing even to ‘deal with’ (whatever that means).  This cloud of discomforting facts has steadily darkened over the course of my assignment,” he said.

Salander echoed those complaints, saying, “The sinister truth is that this international institution, created with an enormous investment of ingenuity and constructivity, has achieved nothing in about seven years now.  And worse, its membership, as an indivisible collective, has not even given itself the possibility to achieve anything.”

“The inactivity, the passivity, is staggering.  No ideas are forwarded.  No solutions are proposed,” Salander added.

The blame, Westdal said, should not be directed at the forum itself.

“This conference we’re in is a tool of proven value, a shop that’s delivered the goods before, global public goods, and can do so again,” he said.

Rather, he said the participants are responsible.

“One hard fact of our time and chance here is that major powers have left our order book empty, our work program in dispute.  We have led horses to water and brought water to horses, but they have not drunk for years now — and they still don’t look thirsty to me,” Westdal said.

“The reasons why we have had nothing to negotiate are no mystery,” he said, without specifically mentioning the United States and China, two of the nations who have resisted different possible negotiating agendas.

Salander concurred, saying, “A large majority, a very large majority, of members would be able to start work tomorrow,” but the “remarkably rigid position” of a few nations is preventing progress.

“Some parties here don’t want to take the next logical step toward nuclear disarmament. … Some clearly want more fissile material than they now have, not out of oft-repeated and unsurprising resentment of those with mountains of the stuff, necessarily, but rather to make more nuclear bombs.  Meanwhile, some here don’t want to ban weapons in space.  Some don’t want to deal with nuclear disarmament here, even to ‘study’ it (as some would say), let alone negotiate to that end.  And some here don’t want to negotiate negative security assurances,” Westdal said.

Nevertheless, Salander expressed some optimism.

“There is always a glimmer of hope somewhere,” he said, challenging conference members to “come up with something better” instead of merely rejecting constructive efforts.

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