Threat Assessment:  Al-Qaeda, Others Are Armed With WMD, CIA Says

Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups are currently capable of conducting attacks with different types of weapons of mass destruction, according to an internal CIA report described in today’s Washington Times.  While there is no evidence that such an attack is imminent, one “cannot be ruled out,” the report says (see GSN, May 29).

Islamic extremists linked to Osama bin Laden “have a wide variety of potential agents and delivery means to choose from for chemical, biological and radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attacks,” the report says.  Entitled Terrorist CBRN: Materials and Effects, the report was authored by the CIA’s intelligence directorate and released last month, according to the Times.

“Al-Qaeda’s goal is the use of (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons) to cause mass casualties,” the report says.  “However, most attacks by the group — and especially by associated extremists — probably will be small-scale, incorporating relatively crude delivery means and easily produced or obtained chemicals, toxins or radiological substances,” the report adds.

Chemical Weapons

The report says al-Qaeda “has crude procedures for making mustard agent, sarin and VX,” and the group also has access to toxic cyanides and less dangerous industrial materials, such as chlorine and phosgene.

In addition, al-Qaeda members have attempted “poison plot” attacks in Europe with chemicals and toxins, according to the report.

“These agents could cause hundreds of casualties and widespread panic if used in multiple, simultaneous attacks,” the report says.

Biological Weapons

Al-Qaeda is capable of attacking with anthrax and botulinum toxin, the report says, noting that botulinum production information has been found in terrorist training materials.

Furthermore, terrorists have explored using ricin, a toxin that “is readily available by extraction from common castor beans,” the report says, adding that “Terrorists have looked at delivering ricin in foods and as a contact poison, although we have no scientific data to indicate that ricin can penetrate intact skin.”

The report also says that the ringleader of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Mohamed Atta, and his suspected colleague Zacarias Moussaoui “expressed interest in crop dusters, raising our concern that al-Qaeda has considered using aircraft to disseminate (biological warfare) agents.”

Nuclear and Radiological Weapons

Al-Qaeda and other terrorists could also make an “improvised nuclear device” that would be “intended to cause a yield-producing nuclear explosion,” the report says.

Such a weapon could be made with “diverted nuclear-weapons components,” by modifying an already assembled nuclear weapon or by using a self-designed weapon, the report says.

More likely, terrorists would try to attack with a radiological weapon, or “dirty bomb,” composed of radioactive materials dispersed by conventional explosives.

“Use of a (radiological dispersal device) by terrorists could result in health, environmental and economic effects, as well as political and social effects,” the report says.

Materials for such weapons — such as cesium 137, strontium 90 and cobalt 60 — are widely used in hospitals, universities and industrial facilities, the report says (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, June 3).

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U.S. Response:  Terror Alerts Meet With More Indifference

Extended terrorism warnings issued by the U.S. Homeland Security Department risk causing a “crying wolf syndrome” in which U.S. residents and security forces could reduce their wariness, according to terrorism experts.

The department established its five color alert system last year that has mostly remained on “yellow,” or “elevated,” with brief periods at “orange,” which denotes a high risk of a terrorist attack (see GSN, June 2).

Although five levels of alert are possible, in practice only two, yellow and orange, can be used regularly, said Randall Larsen, a senior fellow at the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security.  The highest level, “red,” or “severe,” could only be used if an attack is under way, and the lowest two levels are politically impractical, Larsen said.

During the most recent orange alert that ended last week, many security agencies did not respond with the same measures they used in earlier orange alerts, according to the Christian Science Monitor.

In Washington, for example, the U.S. Capitol and the sidewalk in front of the White House remained open, and local police officers did not work overtime shifts, the Monitor reported.

Similarly, Sacramento, Calif., Police Department spokesman Justin Risly said his department does not take any automatic steps when the federal alert level changes.

“The bottom line for us is, unless we have a specific threat, we don’t do much of anything differently,” he said.

“Here’s the difficulty: One color code is trying to give us too much information,” said Larsen.  “If we go from yellow to orange, the threat of an attack is higher.  But is that the threat of a small car bomb or a nuclear weapon? I’m going to worry about one much more than the other,” he added.

“For cities, everyone’s pretty much freelancing on responses, based on the risk assessment in their own community,” said New Haven, Conn., Mayor John DiStefano (Linda Feldmann, Christian Science Monitor, June 3).

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Iraq:  Blix Asks Security Council to Keep Inspection Team Intact

Chief U.N. arms inspector Hans Blix released a new report to the U.N. Security Council yesterday, asking council diplomats to keep the U.N. inspection team intact after he leaves his position at the end of this month (see GSN, June 2).

Blix told the council that months of inspections had prepared his staff to resolve some unanswered questions.  Despite a successful invasion, U.S. forces have yet to discover any of the suspected Iraqi WMD stockpiles that Washington used to justify the war in Iraq.

“It would be inadvisable to undertake any drastic overall reduction in the present cadre of staff,” Blix wrote in what will be his last quarterly report to the Security Council.  “In the months to come it may also be desirable that this staff engage in summarizing and digesting unique experience gained,” he added.

In the report, Blix said U.N. arms inspectors in Iraq at the end of last year and the beginning of 2003 did not find evidence of “continuation or resumption” of illicit weapons development.  The report noted, however, that many questions were left unanswered about previously known stocks of Iraqi weapons (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, June 3).

“The long list of proscribed items unaccounted for and as such resulting in unresolved disarmament issues was neither shortened by the inspections, nor by Iraqi declarations and documents,” the report says.

Blix’s report took special note of chemical weapons that were produced by Iraq but never accounted for.

“This assessment does not resolve the question regarding the total quantity of anthrax produced and destroyed by Iraq,” the report said.  Blix also addressed VX nerve gas, saying, “accounting issues remain concerning the chemical.”

The report also noted that two recently discovered Iraqi trailers containing laboratory equipment were not on Iraqi lists of prewar “legitimate vehicles.”  U.S. President George W. Bush has seized on the trailers as evidence of an illicit weapons program (Felicity Barringer, New York Times, June 3).

Nuclear Agency Restricted by U.S.

Officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency will be allowed to recover nuclear material looted from the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center in Iraq, but the group’s movement will be restricted by U.S. forces, Reuters reported today.  The officials will not be allowed on the main plant and their work is expected to take two weeks.

“The inspection will be confined to ‘Location C,’ the nuclear material storage facility where they will independently identify, verify, repack, seal and secure nuclear material,” IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said.  “Location C is located near the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center, but is outside the gate which encloses the main Tuwaitha site,” she added (Reuters/Jordan Times, June 3).

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Canadian Response:  Chretien Pledges $108 Million to Russian Nonproliferation

Canada will provide $108 million to aid Russian nonproliferation and nuclear disarmament efforts, the Associated Press reported Friday (see GSN, June 2).

The pledge is part of $730 million that Canada will put toward the effort over 10 years, according to Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien.

It “will improve international security by destroying chemical weapons, dismantling nuclear submarines, disposing of fissile materials and redirecting former weapons scientists into peaceful research,” Chretien said.  “These actions will also prevent terrorist groups from acquiring key ingredients for weapons of mass destruction,” he added (Matti Huuhtanen, Associated Press, May 30).

As part of the effort, Canada will put $23 million toward decommissioning three Russian nuclear submarines, according to Chretien.  Ottawa will also contribute $22 million to the chemical weapons destruction program at Shchuchye and $47 million to dispose of Russian weapon-grade plutonium (Shawn McCarthy, Globe and Mail, May 31).

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International Response:  G-8 Urges North Korean, Iranian Nuclear Transparency

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

EVIAN, France — The Group of Eight yesterday called on both North Korea and Iran to address the growing concerns surrounding their nuclear efforts.

In a declaration released yesterday, the G-8 nations — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — harshly criticized North Korea’s uranium enrichment and plutonium production programs, as well as Pyongyang’s failure to abide by its International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards agreement.  Such actions “undermine the nonproliferation regime and are a clear breach of North Korea’s international obligations,” the G-8 said.

The G-8 called on Pyongyang to “visibly, verifiably and irreversibly” end its nuclear weapons efforts as a first step to finding a peaceful solution to the crisis surrounding North Korea’s relaunched nuclear program.

In less harsh language, the G-8 also pledged to “not ignore the proliferation implications of Iran’s advanced nuclear program.”  Group members emphasized the need for Iran to fully comply with its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and called on Tehran to sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would give the agency the authority to monitor Iranian nuclear activities more closely.

“We offer our strongest support to comprehensive IAEA examination of this country’s nuclear program,” the G-8 said in its declaration.

Beyond focusing on North Korea and Iran’s nuclear efforts, the G-8 also emphasized the need for broader nonproliferation measures, such as the creation of national WMD-related export control systems and national standards for the safe and secure storage of WMD-related materials.  In addition, group members also recognized the importance of several international nonproliferation conventions, such as the NPT, the Biological Weapons Convention and the Chemical Weapons Convention, and called on all countries to join these agreements.

“We recognize that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their means of delivery poses a growing danger to us all,” the G-8 said.  “Together with the spread of international terrorism, it is the pre-eminent threat to international security,” it said.

French President Jacques Chirac today denied implications that the G-8 nonproliferation declaration opens the way for possible military action against Iran or North Korea.  While the declaration calls for “other measures ... in accordance with international law” if necessary to combat nonproliferation, to interpret this as permitting military action is “extremely audacious,” Chirac said at the close of the G-8 summit.

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Iran:  Russia Halts “Nuclear Exports” to Tehran

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his country would stop “all nuclear exports” to Iran until Tehran agrees to more stringent inspections of its nuclear facilities, BBC News reported today (see GSN, June 2).

Putin made the declaration to other leaders at the Group of Eight summit in France, and the move follows a tough G-8 declaration calling weapons of mass destruction the “pre-eminent threat” to safety.

Russia wants Iran to sign the Additional Protocol to its safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, but Iran has refused to do so until international sanctions are lifted.  Iranian official have said Iran should receive more advanced nuclear technology because it is a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (BBC News, June 3).

The G-8 leaders said they would not “ignore the proliferation implications of Iran’s nuclear program.”  They also said they could use inspections and export controls to check potential Iranian proliferation and, “if necessary, other means in accordance with international law.”

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said, however, that U.S. President George W. Bush will not invade Iran.

“Bush made a clear statement that the idea of an armed operation by American forces in Iran is completely without foundation,” Berlusconi said.

A senior Bush administration official said France, Germany and Russia, all nations that opposed the war with Iraq, facilitated the strong declaration.

“Iran’s going to be on the griddle,” the official said, adding, “this statement confirms it” (Tagliabue/Bumiller, New York Times, June 3).

Meanwhile, Russia continues to negotiate an agreement with Iran to return spent nuclear fuel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is being built with Russian assistance in Iran, the Moscow Times reported.

Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev yesterday said that Moscow and Tehran are close to a deal on the return of the nuclear fuel, and the text of the agreement “is practically ready” (Simon Saradzhyan, Moscow Times, June 3).

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North Korea:  U.S. Plans South Korean Redeployment

The United States is planning a major redeployment of its forces in South Korea, despite a plea from South Korean leader Roh Moo Hyun to avoid major military moves until the current nuclear standoff has been resolved, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 7).

Visiting Seoul, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said a U.S. troop realignment should not be linked to the nuclear issue.

“What we are talking [about], in terms of the future of the alliance we have undertaken with our Korean allies, is how best to enhance, and shape and align our forces and the forces of our allies to most effectively provide for deterrence from attack.  It is not something which should wait until the nuclear problem is solved, as though it is going to weaken our posture.  On the contrary, it is going to strengthen our overall posture,” Wolfowitz said.

Wolfowitz, who traveled to Japan yesterday to meet with officials there, also said North Korea “is teetering on the edge of economic collapse,” and “that, I believe, is a major point of leverage” (Howard French, New York Times, June 3).

U.S. officials said that a redeployment would involve a move south, away from the heavily fortified demilitarized zone.

“Our present posture sacrifices a good deal of military capability for the symbolism of having some American soldiers up on the DMZ,” a defense official said yesterday.  “That means that if North Korea were to attack, we would spend a lot of the first period of time reorganizing and regrouping in order to start hitting back,” the official added (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, June 3).

Wolfowitz, who also asked South Korea to boost its defense spending, said new technology enabled a redeployment.

“You can achieve an effective military force at much greater distance than you could before, and often with much smaller numbers of forces,” he said.

Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish, the U.S. missile defense chief, will visit Japan later this month, according to Wolfowitz.  While it is unclear what Japan seeks in terms of missile defense, Kadish will visit “to discuss technical aspects,” Wolfowitz added (Hans Greimel, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 3).

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United States:  Energy Department Completes First Review of Pit Production Facility

The U.S. Energy Department yesterday released a draft environmental impact statement for a full-scale plutonium “pit” production facility.  The study examined alternatives for manufacturing up to 450 pits annually at one of five possible locations by 2020 (see GSN, Sept. 20, 2002). 

A plutonium pit is the first-stage of a thermonuclear weapon and is a hollow sphere about the size of a softball, according to the Associated Press.

After a 14-year break in production, officials at the Los Alamos Nuclear Laboratory this year manufactured a new pit that meets new production standards (see GSN, April 23).

“This issue is an important one, since it deals directly with the national security of the U.S. and our ability to keep our nuclear stockpile safe, reliable and secure,” Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said.

Last year, Energy announced plans for a facility to build plutonium triggers, and officials were to choose between locations in New Mexico, Nevada, Texas and South Carolina.  The environmental review did not narrow that list, but it did provide details on the production plans, which could be in full swing by 2020.

The plant, which officials hope will produce 125, 250 or 450 triggers each year, is projected to cost $2.2 to $4.4 billion and would operate for 50 years (Josef Hebert, Associated Press/Boston Globe, June 3).

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U.S. Response:  Official Urges Funding for Project Bioshield

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A senior U.S. official today encouraged Congress to fund Project Bioshield, the Bush administration plan to spur biological weapons vaccine research, development and procurement (see GSN, May 23).

A House bill proposed by the White House, the Project Bioshield Act, would authorize $5.6 billion in funds to be spent over 10 years to induce the U.S. pharmaceutical industry to increase investment in vaccines and treatments for biological weapons diseases through multiyear authorization of funding and liability-limiting provisions (see GSN, April 7).

“The intent of asking for mandatory funding is to provide assurance to big industry that large dollar amounts would be there,” according to Philip Russell, senior adviser for vaccine development and production in the Health and Human Services Department’s Office of Public Health and Preparedness.

In using the term “mandatory,” Russell was referring to bill language designating the $5.6 billion as a “special reserve fund,” from which the homeland security secretary could draw through 2013 to procure vaccines and other medical products after declaring a state of emergency.

He told a conference here today that the purchase of vaccines and drugs would require “very large numbers” of dollars, so “we opted for mandatory funding because we thought it was the best way to assure industry that we were truly serious and that the money would be there.”

The bill, notably, would permit the homeland security secretary to declare a national emergency and authorize release of a drug or device not approved by the Food and Drug Administration for use in an emergency, would provide government compensation for injuries resulting from smallpox vaccinations, and would guarantee procurement of certain vaccines.

The House Government Reform Committee approved a version of the legislation last month and the bill will now be considered by the Homeland Security Committee.  A Senate version awaits floor action. 

The legislation has been criticized by some lawmakers who have questioned the need and the wisdom of atypical multiyear funding authority, and whether the bill’s focus on developing vaccines and drugs for anthrax, smallpox and botulinum toxin might drive potential terrorists to focus on agents that cause other diseases.

The Congressional Budget Office, furthermore, published a report in April concluding the bill’s cost could actually be $2.5 billion more than the $5.6 billion the Bush administration has estimated and the bill would authorize (see GSN, May 9).

DynPort Vaccine Company, attending the conference, provided a chart showing that most progress has been made developing vaccines for smallpox and anthrax, which are considered by officials to be the potentially most dangerous bioterrorism diseases.  Two anthrax vaccines are available in the U.S. stockpile and a smallpox vaccine and treatment for complications should be ready in three to four years, it indicated.

The chart indicated the length of time it takes to develop, test and bring a vaccine into production.  Vaccines for plague, tularemia, botulinum toxin, and multivalent Venezuelan equine encephalitis, and a next generation anthrax vaccine, are in the technology development stage, which could last four to eight years before moving into a system development and demonstration phase prior to production that could take three to four years, it said.

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U.S. Response:  Pentagon Distributes 25,000 Gas Masks

The U.S. Defense Department has distributed 25,000 gas masks to Pentagon employees in the Washington area, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 21).

In late February, Pentagon officials began handing out “escape hoods” and training hundreds of employees each day to use the emergency equipment.  Defense officials also distributed gas masks to Pentagon press correspondents.

The Defense Department intends to distribute the masks to 80,000 employees in the Pentagon and nearby defense facilities.  Defense personnel are supposed to keep the masks at their desks except for emergency situations, when employees can carry the masks on their belts (Associated Press/Kansas City Star, June 2).

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CWC:  Tonga Ratifies Treaty

Tonga last week submitted its instruments of accession to the Chemical Weapons Convention (see GSN, May 13), making it the 153rd party to the treaty when Tonga’s accession takes effect June 28.  The nation is the eighth Pacific island state to join the treaty (OPCW release, June 3).

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