U.S. Response:  Constutional Amendment Needed In Case Congress Wiped Out by Terrorists

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Fearing a bioterrorist attack that could wipe out Congress, an independent commission today recommended that the United States adopt a constitutional amendment to allow for rapidly replacing members of the House of Representatives (see GSN, Sept. 11, 2002).

Compared to the Cold War, “there is a much greater likelihood of an attack incapacitating large numbers of [congressional] members,” according to the report from the Continuity of Government Commission, conducted by the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution.

The report, Preserving Our Institutions, recommended a constitutional amendment to allow for appointees to succeed members of the House of Representatives.  After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, lawmakers discussed the possibility of allowing appointed representatives but members resisted change to the tradition of maintaining elected officials in the House at all times.  State governors can appoint a senator if a seat is vacant (Frank Davies, Philadelphia Inquirer, June 4).

“Because of the availability of chemical and biological agents, the possibility of mass incapacitation is real.  A chemical attack might leave thousands in burn units or with respiratory and neurological injuries,” the report said.

The report also specifically noted the threat posed by smallpox and anthrax.  “If even a few members of Congress contracted the disease, the members might choose not to convene for fear of spreading the disease,” according to the report.

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Iraq I:  Secret Documents Lie Untouched at Baghdad Missile Plant

U.S. forces have not been to the main Iraqi missile production site in Baghdad despite the presence of secret documents and plans, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, June 3).

“We have the most sensitive documents here,” said Marouf al-Chalabi, director general of the state-run al-Fatah company.  “We were sure the Americans would target us but they haven’t even dropped by,” he said.

Despite heavy looting, the company’s complex still has plans and testing results for rockets, guidance systems and warheads.

“They’re scattered everywhere,” al-Chalabi said of the documents.

U.S. experts who have traveled with weapons inspections teams in Iraq were surprised that the plans were available at al-Fatah.  They said, however, that the company was not on a list of sites to visit (Associated Press/CNN.com, June 3).

The Hunt Continues

British and U.S. officials in Iraq have discovered an illegal missile program that was under development when coalition forces invaded the country, Agence France-Presse reported.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is under heavy criticism for allegedly exaggerating intelligence reports on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, is aware that officials have found motors for illicit missiles with a range of 960 kilometers.  Iraq was only allowed to possess missiles with a range of up to 150 kilometers under limits set by the U.N. Security Council.

The motors were found at Abu Ghraib military base near Baghdad, according to senior British government sources (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 4).

A former senior Iraqi official, Brig. Gen. Alaa Saeed, says U.S. and British forces will not find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

Saeed said that officials have asked him, “‘Do you know of any documents or inventory of chemical agents?  Any stockpiles?  Any production programs?  Any filled munitions?  Do you have any idea where these weapons are?’ I am ready to give them all the information I have.  But the answer is always the same, ‘No, no, no.’”

Allied bombing in the 1990s destroyed Iraqi chemical, biological and nuclear programs and sanctions prevented Iraq from rebuilding them, Saeed said.

U.S. officials said that senior Iraqi officials who have been captured repeatedly give similar answers to Saeed (Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times, June 4).

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Iraq II:  U.S., British WMD Intelligence Assessments Face More Scrutiny

U.S. and British officials are investigating their prewar national intelligence assessments of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, according to reports, and U.S. officials now concede that some prewar analysis was incorrect (see GSN, May 22).

A U.S. official familiar with a CIA review of its findings said the quality of U.S. intelligence deteriorated after U.N. inspectors left Iraq in 1998, leaving scant information to counteract earlier assessments that Iraq was actively pursuing WMD programs, the official said.

Therefore, the natural inclination of analysts was to assume that those programs were continuing even though there was no evidence of such activity, according to New York Times.

In addition, some information appears to have been simply wrong.  For example, prior to hostilities, the United States received reports that Iraqi forces had been given the authority to use chemical weapons against U.S. troops.  However, no such weapons have been found anywhere, and postwar interrogations of Iraqi officers have turned up no evidence that chemical weapons were ever deployed (James Risen, New York Times, June 4).

At the Pentagon, a U.S. Defense Department official today defended a prewar Pentagon intelligence analysis effort that he said was intended to learn how terrorist groups cooperated with each other and with nations such as Iraq.  Some critics have suggested recently that the analysis was intended to find a justification to attack Iraq, according to the Associated Press.

“This suggestion that we said to them, ‘This is what we’re looking for, go find it’ is precisely the inaccuracy that we are here to rebut,” said Douglas Feith, undersecretary of defense for policy.

“The main thing that the team produced was, it helped educate a lot of people about the fact that there was more cooperation and interconnections among these terrorist organizations and state sponsors — across ideological lines — than many people had appreciated before,” Feith said (Associated Press, New York Times, June 4).

British Review

Meanwhile, a British parliamentary committee announced yesterday that it would formally investigate whether Prime Minister Tony Blair presented inaccurate information on Iraqi WMD programs to build support for war in Iraq.

The House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee said it would examine if the Foreign Office “presented accurate and complete information to Parliament in the period leading up to military action in Iraq, particularly in relation to Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.”

Committee head Donald Anderson said the investigation would be more believable than an investigation by the intelligence services themselves.

“We have a track record of independence … that shows we are not toadies of the government,” he said.

House leader John Reid criticized the investigation, however, blaming “rogue elements” in British intelligence services for questioning the prewar assessments.

“We have not found WMD yet, but we have not found Saddam Hussein — and everyone knows he existed,” Reid said (Audrey Woods, Associated Press/Boston Globe, June 4).

Defending his decision before the House of Commons today, Blair announced that he would cooperate with the investigation.

“In the end, there have been many claims made about the Iraq conflict, that hundreds of thousands of people were going to die, that it was going to be my Vietnam, that the Middle East was going to be in flames and this latest one, that weapons of mass destruction were a complete invention by the British government,” Blair said.

“The truth is, some people resent the fact that it was right to go to conflict.  We won the conflict thanks to the magnificent contribution of the British troops, and Iraq is now free and we should be proud of that,” he added (Michael McDonough, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 4).

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North Korea:  U.S. Lawmakers Say Pyongyang Is “Ready to Deal”

Several U.S. lawmakers who recently traveled to Pyongyang said North Korea is “ready to deal” with the United States to resolve the nuclear standoff on the Korean Peninsula, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, June 3).

Six U.S. representatives, led by Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), visited North Korea and presented Foreign Minister Paek Nam-Sun with a plan to defuse the crisis.

“His response was, ‘It’s very positive.  It’s exactly what we are looking for,’” said Weldon.

He also said that the delegation “had some ideas that might help our negotiators,” noting that he would discuss those with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.

The delegation was confident the North Koreans were ready to sit down at the negotiating table.

“They are certainly ready to deal,” said Representative Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 4).

The mission was difficult because the delegation wanted to hold meaningful discussions without undermining the hardline stance of U.S. President George W. Bush, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported.

“Everything is on the table,” Weldon said.  “They are concerned that America may not be willing to negotiate with them, that we do not want to recognize their legitimacy,” he added.

Some experts said North Korea might misunderstand the visit, the Inquirer reported.  North Korea has insisted on direct talks to resolve the situation and officials in Pyongyang might have interpreted this visit as one-on-one negotiations.  Bush has insisted on a multilateral format to resolve the crisis.

“These states can be so paranoid and their windows so narrow that they can easily misconstrue,” said Tom Henricksen, a foreign policy expert at Stanford University (Chris Mondics, Philadelphia Inquirer, June 4).

Troops Set to Move

Meanwhile, the United States intends to relocate 6,000 of its 7,000 Seoul-based military personnel, the Korea Herald reported today.

The personnel will be moved south of the capital, according to the commander of U.S. forces in Korea, Gen. Leon LaPorte (Kim Hyung-jin, Korea Herald, June 4).

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Iran:  Putin’s Promise Could Slow Iranian Nuclear Ambitions

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent promise to prevent the transfer of nuclear material to Iran until Tehran agrees to tougher nuclear inspections met with approval from some nonproliferation experts, USA Today reported today (see GSN, June 3).

“It’s a move in the right direction,” said Michael Eisenstadt, a Middle East expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.  “It will slow down this particular route” to acquiring nuclear weapons, he added.

Putin reportedly made the promise to U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell last month and repeated it when he met with U.S. President George W. Bush this week during the Group of Eight summit in Evian, France (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, June 4).

Bushehr Delayed

The Bushehr nuclear reactor, which Russia is helping to build in southern Iran, is behind schedule, Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev said yesterday.  The reactor will be finished in 2005, a year later than expected, he said (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 3).

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India:  Russia to Curtail Nuclear Aid to India, Report Says

Moscow officials have told India that Russia will reduce its support for Indian nuclear and space programs, Pakistani newspaper The News reported Monday (see GSN, Feb. 14).

The move came after pressure from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which seeks to stem the proliferation of nuclear technology and material, The News reported (see GSN, May 28).  India is urging Russia to continue its technology transfers, according to a diplomatic source.

“The Indians still hope to get the smuggling of the prohibited material to continue as the issue would be raised by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee with Russian President [Vladimir] Putin during his stay in St. Petersburg,” the diplomatic source said (Islamabad The News, June 2 in FBIS-NES, June 2).

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United States:  Congressman Wants More B-2 Bombers

The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee last week said the United States needs to invest in slimmed-down versions of the B-2 stealth bomber (see GSN, Jan. 2, 2002).

Claiming the nation’s bomber force is too small, Representative Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) said the production of additional B-2s should be considered until a next-generation bomber is developed.  One possibility, he said, was to create a “B-2 ‘Chevy’” — a bomber that would be cheaper to produce because it would not be outfitted for use in a nuclear war environment.

The U.S. House of Representatives recently approved spending $314 million on the B-2 fleet next year in its version of the 2004 defense authorization bill, $85 million more than the Bush administration had requested (see GSN, May 23).

Hunter also said the B-2 should be outfitted with precision-guided weapons.  One project under way is the development of a small-diameter bomb that would be as effective as the larger, 1,000-pound bombs the B-2 now carries, the Daily News reported.  Under that plan, the B-2 would go from carrying 16 1,000-pound bombs to carrying as many as 80 500-pound bombs, each capable of hitting separate targets (Jim Skeen, Los Angeles Daily News, June 2).

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U.S. Response:  Report Says U.S. Labs Unprepared for a Chemical Attack

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — U.S. security officials and lawmakers have long fretted over the possibility of chemical or biological terrorism in the United States, but the public health system remains “woefully unprepared” to deal with such an attack, according to a study released today by a public health group.

“Thirty years of inadequate training, staffing, equipment and funding have left our public health system in serious disrepair,” according to the report from Trust for America’s Health.  U.S. leaders have made repeated efforts to meet the  terrorist WMD threat, but the report says “America’s public health system is not up to the job.”

The report conducted a state-by-state analysis of public health facilities and found that laboratories suffered from inadequate staffing, obsolete facilities and poor communications.

Trust for America’s Health called on lawmakers to allocate $200 million annually through fiscal 2006 to upgrade state public health laboratories and prepare them for a chemical or biological attack.  Thereafter, Congress should spend $100 million each year, according to the organization.

The findings received some support from Congress.

“This report is further evidence that 20 months after Sept. 11, we are still not prepared to deal with a chemical attack … our public health laboratories clearly need help if we expect them to be up to the task,” said Senator Jon Corzine (D-N.J.).

CDC Says Improvements Are Coming

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention must set standards for chemical testing and training, the report says.

CDC officials have read the report and agree with its recommendations, CDC spokesman Von Roebuck told GSN today.

“We recognize there is work to be done,” Roebuck said.  The CDC recently sent terrorism preparedness guidance to the states along with grant money, and chemical preparedness is part of that, he added.  There are numerous public health issues, however, and the CDC cannot focus entirely on the possibility of chemical attacks.

“I wouldn’t say that the whole thing is centered around chemical” agents, Roebuck said of the guidance.  He also noted that the CDC can recommend action, but “we have to work within the state systems.  It’s a collaboration.”

When asked if the chemical portion of the guidance is a priority, Roebuck said that “everything in it is a priority.”

Chemical Analysis Lacking

Researchers surveyed five state laboratory directors and found that technicians are prepared to test for more common health risks, such as mercury or lead, but not for a wide range of chemicals that are likely to be used in a chemical attack.  None of the laboratories surveyed could test for incapacitating gases or blister and nerve agents, such as VX gas or sarin.

The report cited a situation from a Boston Celtics professional basketball game this year in which pepper spray or mace was released as a prank and players were forced to cover their faces with towels and warm-up clothes.  If the gas had been a lethal chemical agent, officials would probably not have been able to identify it quickly enough to take appropriate medical action, according to the report.

In the report’s imagined scenario involving a deadly gas, “a crew of terrorists sitting behind the home team’s bench spray a noxious chemical.  Instead of momentary gagging, players and fans in the immediate vicinity begin choking … at this point, the survival of all those exposed depends upon prompt, proper identification of the hazardous substance.”

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Russia:  Monitoring Systems Installed at Chemical Weapons Facilities

New safety equipment was activated Monday at the Russian chemical weapon disposal facility at Gorny, according to ITAR-Tass.  The system of sensors and alarms is designed to sample the air to detect the presence of deadly chemical agents (see GSN, May 14).

The system is comprised of portable and permanent detectors that can identify toxic gas and issue a danger signal, according to ITAR-Tass.  Similar sensors have already been deployed at another chemical weapons depot in Kambarka (ITAR-Tass, June 2 in FBIS-SOV, June 3).

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New Zealand:  Auckland Man Building Cruise Missile Inside Garage

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Missile experts yesterday said a New Zealand man’s efforts to illustrate the dangers of low-cost cruise missiles were at best “unhelpful” and at worst in possible violation of an international nonproliferation agreement.

In May 2002, Auckland-based Internet technology journalist Bruce Simpson wrote an article claiming that an effective cruise missile could be built using readily available and inexpensive materials.  He received extensive feedback, some from doubters who said he underestimated the difficulty of such a project.

Simpson decided to prove the skeptics wrong by building a cruise missile in his garage for less than $5,000.  He is publishing his work on a Web site and says the project is progressing well.

The missile is on budget and only six weeks away from testing, although Simpson will need cooperation and clearance from the New Zealand Air Force before a test flight, he said.

Simpson is attempting to build a missile that can travel at least 100 miles, carry a payload of 22 pounds and be launched from the bed of a pickup truck.  The components, including the Global Positioning System and the missile’s fiberglass body, were bought from commercial retailers.  The parts that came from outside New Zealand were shipped and passed through customs without incident or question.

The system may seem tailor-made for terrorists, but that is the point Simpson said he is trying to make.  He said that if he can build a missile, a determined and well-financed terrorist organization could build it better.

“My big concern right now is that if someone doesn’t demonstrate the capabilities of a low-cost cruise missile in a benign manner, then the first demonstration may be performed by a terrorist,” Simpson said in response to written questions from Global Security Newswire.

He said the government must raise awareness of potential threats so the public can be alert for suspicious activity.

“The price of freedom is vigilance, and without the practical proof that it could be done, who would have believed that your new neighbor could be building a ‘terror weapon’ in their garage,” Simpson wrote on his Web site.

Helping Terrorists

Simpson’s claim that he is not helping terrorists is “very dubious,” according to Richard Speier, a former U.S. Defense Department official who was involved in creating the Missile Technology Control Regime, a system of internationally agreed controls on missile technology transfers.

“He’s doing a lot of research and development for them. On the other hand maybe he’ll point out some loopholes that can be closed, but it would be better if he wasn’t doing it in the public domain,” Speier said.

Some New Zealand government officials are also uneasy with Simpson’s work.  The New Zealand Herald reported yesterday that a government official was concerned the missile could violate the MTCR.

Although his Internet postings provide a detailed explanation of the progressing missile, Simpson said the project is most likely not in violation of the missile technology restrictions, which New Zealand adheres to.

“Virtually all the information I’m publishing is already available on the net or elsewhere in the public domain.  One could ask whether any number of encyclopedias or reference books violate the MTCR by publishing diagrams of missiles, the recipe for gunpowder and other similar information,” Simpson told GSN.

Unless the missile was exported or officials decided Simpson wanted to arm it with chemical or biological weapons, the MTCR would not apply, according to Speier.  He was nevertheless unhappy with the project, however, calling the detailed Internet postings “most unhelpful.”

“This is something to be concerned about it … it is very much of a biological delivery threat.  Cruise missiles are the best way to deliver BW [biological weapons], much more efficient than ballistic missile.  It is a very, very dangerous system,” Speier said.

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U.S. Plans:  Missile Defense Deadline Could Hurt Overall Effort, GAO Says

In the effort to field a missile defense capability by October 2004, the United States might cause damage to the overall goal of defending the country against the threat of ballistic missiles, according to a General Accounting Office report scheduled to be released tomorrow (see GSN, May 16).

The Missile Defense Agency has cut flight tests, leading the GAO to claim that the lack of proven technology could leave the system “impaired.”

“Giving up this approach opens the door to greater cost and performance risks,” the report says.  “While doing so may help meet the president’s deadline, it also increases the potential some elements may not work as intended,” the report adds.

The MDA disagreed with the report.

“We are highly confident that we will field an effective, reliable defense of our 50 states by fall of 2004,” the agency said.  “This confidence comes from the outstanding technical success we have achieved in our development and test program,” the agency added (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg.com, June 3).

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