Threat Assessment:  United States Ranks Fourth on List of Countries Most Likely to Suffer Attack

A report prepared by the World Markets Research Center ranks the United States fourth among 186 countries most likely to experience a terrorist attack within the next year, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, July 31).

The World Terrorism Index report lists Colombia, Israel, Pakistan, the United States and the Philippines as the countries most likely to be targeted by terrorists.  North Korea was ranked as the least likely to suffer a terrorist attack. 

“Another Sept. 11-style terrorist attack in the United States is highly likely,” the report says.  “Networks of militant Islamist groups are less extensive in the U.S. than they are in Western Europe, but U.S.-led military action in Afghanistan and Iraq has exacerbated anti-U.S. sentiment,” it says.

Several criteria were used to determine a country’s terrorist-risk ranking, including motivation of terrorists, presence of terrorist organizations, scale and frequency of past attacks and number of previously prevented attacks (Audrey Woods, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 18).

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Iraq:  Officials Toughened British Dossier on Iraqi WMD Days Before Release

Shortly before releasing a September 2002 intelligence dossier on Iraqi WMD capabilities, British officials strengthened some of the language used to describe the threat in ways that were unsupported by other senior British intelligence experts, the London Independent reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 12).

For example, a draft of the dossier said Iraq had stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons available “either from pre-Gulf War stocks or more recent production.”  The final version of the dossier, however, said that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons available “both from pre-Gulf War stocks and more recent production.”

Even the title of the dossier was altered to make a more convincing case that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, according to the Independent.  Up until the dossier’s release, it was titled, “Iraq’s program for weapons of mass destruction.”  When the dossier was released, however, the words “program for” were removed from the title.

Glen Rangwala of Cambridge University said the change in the wording of the title of dossier was significant because the inclusion of the word “program” does not indicate that actual weapons of mass destruction existed.  According to Rangwala, some British intelligence experts believed there were only suspected WMD programs in Iraq instead of actual stockpiles (Jo Dillon, London Independent, Aug. 17).

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U.S. Response:  U.S. Disarmament Support Should Continue Despite Incomplete Russian Cooperation, Lugar Says

U.S. funding of programs to dispose of Russian WMD stockpiles should continue unimpeded despite a lack of full Russian cooperation, the chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee said Friday (see GSN, May 23).

“Our objective, and the Russian objective at the highest level, is to destroy weapons of mass destruction,” Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) said on a Moscow visit. 

Since 1992, U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction programs have helped Russia dispose of its weapons of mass destruction.

Lugar met with Russian Munitions Agency Director Viktor Kholstov Friday to discuss U.S.-Russian efforts to accelerate the disposal of Russia’s vast stockpile of chemical weapons, according to the Los Angeles Times (see GSN, April 28).  Lugar was also scheduled to visit the city of Perm, 700 miles east of Moscow, over the weekend to observe the destruction of mobile SS-24 and SS-25 ICBMs (see GSN, June 16; David Holley, Los Angeles Times, Aug. 16).

Lugar has warned that Russia’s reluctance to allow U.S. inspectors to visit biological weapons sites could jeopardize continued funding for the threat reductions programs, according to the Miami Herald (see GSN, March 24).

“Russia’s denials with regard to the biological situation offer an avenue where opponents of spending money can say, ‘See, we still really don’t know,’” Lugar said.  “Some members of Congress say, ‘Is Russia complying, literally, to the dotted line, with all the arms control treaties?’” he said.

“It’s not useful to set up conditions in which there has to be 100 percent compliance before we do anything,” Lugar said.

Lugar said he recently met with U.S. President George W. Bush and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to seek a presidential waiver that would remove some of the restrictions that some members of Congress want to attach to funding for the threat reduction programs.  Lugar said Friday that he was optimistic that Bush would issue the waiver (Mark McDonald, Miami Herald, Aug. 18).

[EDITOR'S NOTE:  Richard Lugar is on the Board of Directors of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by the National Journal Group.]

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Iran:  Tehran Claims Uranium Traces Not From Illicit Activity

Iranian officials have said enriched uranium reportedly found in environmental sampling by U.N. officials is a result of contamination and not illicit enrichment, Reuters reported today (see GSN, July 18).

After publicly denying the first reports of the enriched uranium discovery, Iranian officials have since told the International Atomic Energy Agency that the enriched uranium particles found at the Natanz centrifuge enrichment facility must have already been in equipment when it was imported, according to diplomats.

Iran is suspected of having tested its uranium enrichment centrifuges without notifying the IAEA, but Iranian officials have denied any such activity.

Diplomats said the Iranian explanation was possible, but they want the International Atomic Energy Agency to fully investigate the issue.

“We can’t be satisfied with excuses,” a Western diplomat said.  “We don’t expect the case to be closed at this point.  The pressure must continue on Iran to cooperate with the IAEA,” the diplomat added (Reuters/Jordan Times, Aug. 18).

Iranian officials are beginning initial studies for a third nuclear reactor with a 5,000-megawatt capacity, the Associated Press reported.  Iran and Russia are currently building a reactor at Bushehr, and Iranian leaders recently approved a second, 1,000-megawatt reactor (see GSN, Aug. 14; Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 14).

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North Korea I:  Pyongyang Says U.S. ‘Hostile Policy’ Prevents Disarmament

North Korea said today that it will not abandon its nuclear weapons program during multinational peace talks later this month unless the United States drops its “hostile policy” toward Pyongyang (see GSN, Aug. 15).

“If the U.S. does not express its will to make a switchover in its policy toward the D.P.R.K. the D.P.R.K. will have no option but to declare that it cannot dismantle its nuclear deterrent force at the talks,” the official state-run media outlet announced (Paul Eckert, Reuters/Boston Globe, Aug. 18).

A senior South Korean diplomat today said that Washington and Pyongyang could hold direct talks during the three-day multinational meetings in Beijing scheduled to begin Aug. 27.

“My understanding is that the United States has not ruled out North Korea-U.S. bilateral contact,” said Wi Sung-lac, director general of the South Korean Foreign Ministry’s North American affairs bureau.  “Nothing has been decided on what form such contact would take,” Wi added (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, Aug. 18).

Germany Charges Tube Smugglers

German prosecutors, meanwhile, charged three people Saturday with attempting to smuggle aluminum tubes to North Korea for use in its nuclear weapons program.  The German firm Optronic attempted to ship 214 aluminum tubes through China to a North Korea uranium processing plant.  The tubes were intercepted in Egypt (see GSN, Aug. 15).

The tubes’ purpose was “clearly nuclear,” according to a Western diplomat.

German authorities also charged two exporters in Hamburg with helping to smuggle the shipment, according to Eckhard Maak, a spokesman for the prosecutors (Reuters/Sydney Morning Herald, Aug. 18).

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North Korea II:  China Pushes Diplomacy in Korean Nuclear Standoff

Chinese officials have decided to act with new initiative to help resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis, reflecting their wariness of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Aug. 15).

“China is playing a constructive role in helping to bring the nuclear issue of the peninsula on to the track of a peaceful solution,” said Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing.  “And we are happy that we seem to enjoy full support of all the international community,” Li added.

Analysts said China feared a potential conflict between the United States and North Korea.

“China realized that if things got out of control, North Korea could go crazy and [U.S.] President [George W.] Bush could go crazy, too,” said Chu Shulong, an expert in international security at Tsinghua University.  “We saw danger on both sides,” Chu added (John Pomfret, Washington Post, Aug. 16).

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak, meanwhile, left for Washington today in part to discuss the Korean crisis (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Aug. 18).

Meanwhile, Chinese General Xu Caihou, director of the Chinese Army’s general political department, left for North Korea today (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Aug. 18).

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Russia:  Russian Nuclear Weapon Research Has Outpaced U.S., Russian Official Says

A senior Russian nuclear official has said that since the 1950s, when Russia tested its first hydrogen bomb, Moscow has maintained a lead over the United States in nuclear weapons technology, including the development of low-yield “bunker-busting” weapons, The Hindu reported today (see GSN, June 20).

“Whereas before 1953 we trailed the U.S. in the sphere of nuclear weapon technology, after 1953 — and to this day — they have been trailing us,” said Viktor Mikhailov, head of research at the Russian Federal Nuclear Center.

Center Director Radyi Ilkayev said that despite funding difficulties, Russia was continuing work on developing new types of nuclear weapons.  Over the past two years, the center has received more government orders and has hired more staff, Ilkayev said.

“The past 15 years have been tough for our nuclear center, but we have never halted weapon programs,” Ilkayev said (Vladimir Radyuhin, The Hindu, Aug. 18).

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Smallpox:  Study Shows Smallpox Immunity Can Last Decades

Millions of U.S. residents who were immunized against smallpox before 1972 might still be immune to the disease, according to a study published yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 13).

“This puts us ahead of the curve.  Instead of having a population that is fully susceptible to a smallpox outbreak, this suggests we have some degree of ‘herd immunity,’” said Mark Slifka, an immunologist at Oregon Health & Science University.  Slifka led the study, which was published online by Nature Medicine.

Researchers studied more than 100 people immunized more than 30 years ago, when the smallpox vaccination was routine.  U.S. health officials have been trying in vain to organize a massive immunization program to defend emergency responders against a biological terrorism attack using smallpox.  That program has mostly faltered, but the new evidence suggests that the U.S. population might not be as susceptible as was previously thought.

U.S. officials said recently, however, that the new study will not alter their approach.

“I don’t think this study impacts on what optimal protection is,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.  “If you want to optimally protect, a person needs to be vaccinated within a relatively recent time frame,” he added (David Brown, Washington Post, Aug. 18).

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United States:  Anniston Incinerator Destroys More Than 30 Rockets in First Week

In its first week of operation, the chemical weapons incinerator at the Anniston Army Depot in Alabama destroyed more than 30 sarin-filled rockets, the Birmingham News reported Saturday (see GSN, Aug. 14).

So far, the Anniston incinerator has destroyed 32 rockets out of more than 661,000 chemical weapons stored at the depot, according to the News.  The incinerator last week was operational for three days, with maintenance problems resulting in the incinerator being shut down four times.

“Once again, this is indicative that we are starting very, very slow — being very, very cautious,” U.S. Army spokesman Mike Abrams said (Katherine Bouma, Birmingham News, Aug. 16).

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U.S. Plans I:  Missile Interceptor Booster Test Successful

A booster vehicle developed for use in the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense program was successfully launched Saturday from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California (see GSN, Aug. 15).

The booster, developed by Orbital Sciences Corp., reached an altitude of 1,165 miles and traveled over the Pacific Ocean for 3,300 miles (Orbital release, Aug. 17).

Orbital spokesman Barron Beneski said the company is still examining the data from the launch, but initial signs looked good.

“From what we can tell, all mission objectives were achieved,” Beneski said.  “It looked like a good launch,” he said (Nora Wallace, Santa Barbara News-Press, Aug. 17).

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India:  New Delhi Increases Efforts to Develop Indigenous Missile Defense System

India has increased its efforts to develop an indigenous missile-defense system by requesting information from the United States on its Patriot missile interceptor and U.S. approval for involvement in the U.S-Israeli Arrow missile-defense system, Sify.com reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 8).

India has requested “technical information” on the Patriot interceptor, which is expected to aid in the development of the Trishul missile, which has been slated to fill a missile-defense role, according to Sify.com.  Indian Defense Ministry officials said they were “hopeful of an early response from Washington” (Sify.com, Aug. 17).

Meanwhile, India has decided to cease development of a second missile interceptor, the medium-range Akash missile, according to Agence France-Presse.  Technical problems and cost escalations due to development delays led to the decision to cancel the program (Agence France-Presse/Straits Times, Aug. 18).

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U.S. Plans II:  Pentagon Chooses Alaskan Island to Base X-Band Radar

Adak Island in the Aleutian Islands chain off the coast of Alaska has been chosen as the site for the Sea-Based X-Band Radar system, a component in the planned U.S. missile defense system, military officials said Friday (see GSN, July 24).

Adak was among six sites considered for the X-Band Radar.  It was selected because of the infrastructure already present on the island and its far northwest location, Missile Defense Agency spokesman Rick Lehner said.  The island’s western location was preferable because it will give the radar system more time to distinguish real ballistic missile warheads from decoys, Lehner said.

The island once supported both U.S. Army and Navy operations, so it already has a 7,900-foot runway, a deep-water port and other useful facilities.

“It was just a very good place for us geographically and operationally,” Lehner said (Mary Pemberton, Associated Press/Juneau Empire, Aug. 17).

The X-Band Radar is scheduled to begin operation in 2005, according to Agence France-Presse.  Tracking data from the system will be transmitted to ground-based missile interceptors deployed at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base in California (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Aug. 15).

Area residents near Everett, Wash., another of the six sites that was considered for the X-Band Radar, have expressed relief that their city was not picked, according to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer (see GSN, June 19).

“I think we’re all breathing a sigh of relief today,” Representative Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), whose district includes Everett, said in a press release.  “Our local communities made it clear they did not want SBX in their back yard,” he said (Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Aug. 16).

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Radiological Weapons:  Thieves Steal Containers of Cobalt 60 from Indian Plant

Three metal containers of radioactive cobalt 60 have been stolen from a steel plant in eastern India, a company official said yesterday (see GSN, July 14).

The containers were stolen Friday from the Tata Steel factory in Jamshedpur, an official said.  Police investigating the incident have detained three men and are investigating whether factory staff had any involvement, a senior police official said.  Jamshedpur Police Superintendent Arun Oraon said “there’s reason to believe” that the containers will soon be recovered (Gulf Daily News, Aug. 18).

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NGO Funding:  MacArthur Foundation Announces New Funding Initiative

A Chicago-based foundation announced last week that it will donate more than $50 million over six years to fund new research into reducing the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction.

Officials at the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation said they plan to create 110 new jobs at universities, laboratories and think tanks.

“With the retirement or passing of the scientists who were involved in the early development of nuclear weapons in the United States, the number of specialists conducting independent research and analysis on weapons of mass destruction has decreased markedly, even as the threat of terrorism has grown,” said foundation President Jonathan Fanton.  “At the same time, the nature of the threat from weapons of mass destruction has changed. … To address these new challenges, there is a need for specialists from many fields of science who are willing to engage the security policy agenda,” he added.

The money will be donated to nine U.S. universities, six international research centers and numerous foundations and think tanks worldwide.

The funding is intended to create new faculty positions, support midcareer scientists and establish fellowships and stipends to encourage research on terrorism.

Among the biggest recipients is the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which will receive $2.1 million over three years to expand its Technical Working Group program. The Technical Working Group researches and trains students in ballistic missile defenses, nuclear arms reduction and other issues pertaining to fissile materials (MacArthur Foundation release, Aug. 14).

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