U.S. Response I:  Ridge Defends Threat Advisory System

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge yesterday defended the color-coded national terrorism-alert level, which has come under increasing criticism for being too vague to be effective.

While the Homeland Security Department will continue to improve the threat advisory system, in general “it’s a good system,” Ridge said yesterday during a speech to the summer meeting of the National Governors’ Association held in Indianapolis.

“It is a system designed — and I think it’s worked fairly well — to, one, alert the public generally that it is a consensus opinion within the president’s Homeland Security Council … that the level of threat has either gone up or has receded,” Ridge said.

Last week, the Congressional Research Service released a report concluding that the threat advisory system is too vague on the nature of the potential terrorist threat, leading to concerns that the public may disregard the warnings (see GSN, Aug. 13).  The report also said that, when the threat level was raised, only general intelligence information with a lack of specifics was cited as the cause.  In addition, Democrats on the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee last week also issued a report claiming that the threat advisory system needed to be revised to provide more specific information (see GSN, Aug. 14).

In his remarks yesterday, Ridge acknowledged that some governors had expressed frustration with the general nature of the warnings issued through the threat advisory system.  The system is flexible enough, however, to allow for the issuing of specific threat advisories to states or localities if such intelligence were received, he said.

“I assure you, when the information is specific enough to warrant a warning being limited to a particular area, we will do that,” Ridge told the assembled governors. 

Ridge yesterday also called on governors to identify five additional officials in each of their states who will be able to receive security clearances giving them access to classified homeland security-related information.  If any of the five identified officials have already received a security clearance through another U.S. agency, such as the FBI or CIA, then that will be satisfactory for Homeland Security, he said.  In addition, the Homeland Security Department is also planning to develop a secure Web site to allow state homeland security officials to share information on best practices, Ridge said.

“Sharing information … is at the heart of what we need to do as a country,” Ridge said.

In addition to improving information-sharing, the Homeland Security Department also plans to work with state homeland security advisers to determine what permanent security measures can be implemented at 150 high-level targets throughout the country that were identified during Operation Liberty Shield, Ridge said (see GSN, March 18).  He also said the department plans to work with state officials within the next six months to identify and improve security at a second-tier of 180 sites.

Funding

Ridge said he expected Congress to appropriate $3.5 billion in the fiscal 2004 budget for homeland security-related funding to state and local officials.  To help those officials receive such funding, the Homeland Security Department plans to create by the end of the year a “one-stop shop” to aid in applying for federal grants, he said. 

The New York Times reported today, however, that some governors were still concerned about a lack of needed homeland security funding.

“There is always an issue of resources’ not meeting expectations of citizens,” the Times quoted Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D-Kan.) as saying in an interview.  “We’re responsible for border-to-border security in our states in the most difficult economic times since the Great Depression.  Is there more money we could use?  Yes.  Is there enough money?  Not by any means,” she said.

For their part, governors need to submit state security plans to Homeland Security by the end of the year to help the department determine how federal funding is being spent, Ridge said.  “It’s not just a question of input, it’s outcomes as well,” he said.

Ridge praised state and local officials for their part in helping to improve U.S. homeland security following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

“We still have a long, long way to go, but I’m confident that if we can work through the governors, and through the governors work down to the mayors and local government, we will get stronger and more secure every single day in the future, as we’ve done every single day since 9/11,” Ridge said.

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U.S. Response II:  Homeland Security Department Set to Become Major Federal Research Funding Source

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Homeland Security Department is set to become one of the largest sources of federal research funding in fiscal 2004, according to a report released today by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (see GSN, July 28).

The report examines the funding allocated for research and development efforts at various U.S. agencies in the appropriations bills completed by the House of Representatives and Senate.  The organization found that most of the planned increases in funding would go toward three U.S. agencies most involved in homeland security efforts — the Defense Department, Homeland Security and the National Institutes of Health — leaving other agencies with little additional funding.

Kei Koizumi, director of the AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program, called the planned funding levels “lopsided.”

“Clearly, investment in the federal R&D under the current plan is more lopsided than AAAS would like to see,” Koizumi said in a press release.

The House has allocated more than $125 billion in fiscal 2004 for federal research and development efforts, an $8.4 billion increase over current funding and $3.6 billion more than the Bush administration’s request, according to the report.  Of that $8.4 billion increase, however, 99 percent is set to go to the Pentagon, Homeland Security and the NIH, the report says.  While the Senate has not completed its work on all 13 appropriations bills, it has closely followed the House on those bills it has completed, the report says.

The House has allocated $1.1 billion to the Homeland Security Department in fiscal 2004, a 60 percent over current funding, according to the report.  The House has allocated $890 million in fiscal 2004 and approximately $6 billion over the next 10 years for Project Bioshield, a Bush administration effort to encourage research into new vaccines and treatments against biological weapons agents.  The House has also provided $900 million in research funding for Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate, the report said. 

The Senate has allocated approximately $1 billion for Homeland Security research and development efforts in fiscal 2004, an increase of approximately 50 percent, the report said.  The largest difference between the House and the Senate is that the Senate has not provided funding for Project Bioshield, according to the report.

The Pentagon is set to receive $66 billion for research and development efforts in fiscal 2004, an increase of more than $7 billion over current funding, the report said.  Most of the additional funding will go toward Pentagon weapons development programs, such as missile-defense efforts, it said.  The Senate has allocated slightly less for Pentagon research and development and science and technology, the report said.

In its appropriations bills, the House has provided the NIH with a total budget of approximately $28 billion, an increase of approximately 3 percent over fiscal 2003, the report said.  This comes after five years of annual 15 percent budgetary increases, it said.  The Senate has allocated more than $28 billion to the NIH in its appropriations bills, an increase of approximately 4 percent. 

Both the House and the Senate have fulfilled the Bush administration’s funding request of $4.3 billion for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the lead NIH center for biological defense research, the report said, adding that this represents a 17 percent increase over fiscal 2003.  In contrast, most other NIH institutes would only receive increases between 2 and 4 percent, it said.

While most of the increased research funding allocated in fiscal 2004 is set to go toward homeland security-related efforts, all other domestic research and development projects will be left with relatively constant funding levels, the report said.  The House has allocated $55.4 billion for other research and development efforts, an increase of approximately 2 percent, which falls behind expected inflation, it said.  Even though some U.S. agencies would receive research-funding increases, they would be balanced by cuts in other agencies, such as the Agriculture, Commerce and Transportation departments, according to the report.

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U.S. Response:  United States to Provide Kazakhstan $40 Million to Combat Diseases

The United States plans to provide Kazakhstan with $40 million over the next two years through the Cooperative Threat Reduction program to help combat infectious diseases, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) said yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 18).

The U.S. funding is slated to go toward upgrading Kazakh medical research centers, according to the Associated Press.  During a two-day visit to the city of Almaty, Lugar met with senior Kazakh officials and discussed nonproliferation issues.  Lugar said that Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev had expressed hope that the United States and Kazakhstan would continue to cooperate on nonproliferation issues until at least 2007 (Associated Press, Aug. 18).   

Also during his visit to Kazakhstan, Lugar was presented yesterday with the country’s highest award for foreign dignitaries, the Order Dostyk of the 1st degree, for his efforts to promote bilateral cooperation on nonproliferation issues, according to a Kazakh Embassy press release.

[EDITOR'S NOTE:  Richard Lugar is on the Board of Directors of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by the National Journal Group.]

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Iraq:  Blair’s Chief of Staff Raised Concerns Over WMD Dossier

Shortly before the British government released a September 2002 dossier on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, a top aide to Prime Minister Tony Blair warned that the dossier failed to prove that former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein posed a threat, a government inquiry panel heard yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 18).

In an e-mail sent a week before the dossier was released, Blair’s Chief of Staff Jonathan Powell said the dossier was “good and convincing for those who are prepared to be convinced,” but it “does nothing to demonstrate a threat, let alone an imminent threat from Saddam,” according to the Washington Post.  In a message sent to three Blair aides, Powell also said the dossier did not show that Hussein had “the motive to attack his neighbors, let alone the West.”

After receiving Powell’s messages, however, Blair’s office released the dossier, which included a forward from Blair himself saying, “I am in no doubt that the threat is serious and current, that he (Hussein) has made progress on WMD (weapons of mass destruction) and that he has to be stopped,” the Post reported (Glenn Frankel, Washington Post, Aug. 19).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Says Kidnapping Issue Would Disrupt Talks

North Korea said yesterday that Japan could ruin talks aimed at resolving the nuclear crisis by bringing up the issue of kidnapped Japanese citizens (see GSN, Aug. 18).

Japan and North Korea stopped negotiations over renewing diplomatic ties last October after North Korea admitted kidnapping 13 Japanese civilians in the 1970s.  The talks on the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear standoff are scheduled to begin Aug. 27.

A Japanese effort to raise the issue “may create unnecessary complications” and “throw the discussion into confusion and divert its focus,” said the state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun.

During a visit to China yesterday, Australian Prime Minister John Howard said the talks would most likely go forward.

“North Korea is the issue of the day — the issue, really, of the year — in this part of the world.  We are moving in the right direction,” he said (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 19).

The United States is not insisting that the talks focus only on nuclear issues, according to State Department spokesman Richard Boucher.

Japanese officials “certainly have had and continue to have U.S. support in terms of dealing with the issue of abductions,” Boucher said.  “Whether it will come up directly in these discussions, I don’t know.  Whether the Japanese might raise it on the side or not, I don’t know.  But at this point I think we have to proceed to the discussions,” he added (State Department transcript, Aug. 19).

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Iran:  Tehran Continues Considering Additional Protocol

Iran is still considering signing the Additional Protocol to its nuclear safeguards agreement, which would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Tehran’s nuclear activities, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 18).

“Any decision will depend on the explanations given by the agency, on the ambiguities that exist (over the Additional Protocol), our responsibilities and those of the international community with regard to Iran,” said Hamid Reza Asefi.

Asefi also played down reports that the IAEA found evidence of uranium enrichment in Iran.  Diplomatic officials had indicated that environmental samples had detected uranium enrichment, but Asefi said judgment should be withheld until the IAEA releases its official report Sept. 8.

“It was not up to the diplomats to speak about such a technical and expert subject without knowing the details.  It is up to the agency to judge and to give its point of view.  We will wait until September,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Jordan Times, Aug. 19).

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China:  New U.S. System Will Search For Nuclear Submarines Near Japan

The U.S. Navy will begin testing a new submarine detection system this fall in the Sea of Japan, and the test will help develop technologies that could detect Chinese nuclear ballistic missile submarines (see GSN, Aug. 18).

The test of the Littoral Airborne Sensor Hyperspectral will ostensibly focus on finding friendly submarines, most likely from Japan, USA Today reported.  The system is designed to detect changes in underwater color patterns and color gradations.  Pentagon officials, however, are focused on Chinese and North Korean submarines as a serious threat, should a conflict erupt.  During the exercise, officials will be looking for those vessels, as well as the Japanese submarines.

“The subs can put special operations teams in place, they can target aircraft carriers, locate other targets, and with the Chinese nuclear (weapon) capability, there are different threat categories altogether,” said William Taylor, a retired Army colonel who was director of national security studies at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and has specialized in studying Korea.

China currently has one strategic missile submarine, which is mostly confined to port, according to USA Today.

The exercise, however, could provoke North Korea, some experts say.

“No matter what the U.S. military says, you are going to get an adverse reaction from the North Koreans,” said Charles Ferguson, who served as a Korea expert at the State Department from 2000 to 2002.  “I think the Pentagon is willing to live with that,” he added (Schwartz/Squitieri, USA Today, Aug. 19).

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Iraq:  Vaccinations Probably Did Not Cause Pneumonia Cases, Army Official Says

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Anthrax vaccinations are not considered to be probable causes of 18 serious pneumonia cases involving U.S. Army personnel that were stationed in Southwest Asia, a senior U.S. Army medical official said yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 7).

“At this point in the review, vaccinations are considered unlikely to be a factor in this series of cases,” Col. John Grabenstein, deputy director of the Army’s Military Vaccine Agency, said in an e-mailed statement responding to questions by Global Security Newswire.

Army reports say that since March 1, about 100 military personnel in the region have shown pneumonia-like symptoms, and 18 — more than half in Iraq — have become seriously ill, requiring ventilator support.  Two have died.

Epidemiological consultation teams dispatched by the Army surgeon general to the region and to Germany are investigating the possible causes or contributing factors to the illnesses, including whether the anthrax or smallpox vaccines played a role. 

Grabenstein stated, though, that the anthrax vaccine was probably not to blame for several reasons, including: the cases are not clustered in time around vaccinations, the clusters of pneumonia cases have not occurred among other vaccinated people elsewhere, and worldwide hospitalization data shows that pneumonia occurs no more often in anthrax-vaccinated people than in unvaccinated people.

“It’s important to realize,” he added, “that in over 200 years of giving vaccinations, no vaccine has ever been shown to cause pneumonia.  While unusual cases need to be evaluated on their own merits, no vaccination has been scientifically linked to pneumonia in a cause-and-effect way.”

Other Causes Ruled Unlikely

A Defense Department spokesman earlier this month said no signs have been found that biological or chemical weapons, including anthrax and smallpox agents, played a role in the illnesses (see GSN, Aug. 6).

In a statement yesterday, the Office of the Army Surgeon General also ruled out several other potential causes for the illnesses and said the investigation ultimately may turn up no single cause for the 18 pneumonia cases that are currently under investigation.

“Currently, we have identified no infectious agent common to all of the cases.  Additionally, there is no evidence that any of the 18 serious pneumonia cases under review have been caused by exposure to chemical or biological weapons, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) or environmental toxins,” it said.

The office also said the number of pneumonia cases, including fatalities, is in line with previous annual numbers for Army personnel.

Independent Investigation Sought

Last week, United Press International reported an allegation lodged by Moses Lacy, father of Army Spc. Rachael Lacy, who reportedly died after she displayed symptoms of pneumonia.  “The common denominator (in the mysterious deaths) is smallpox and anthrax vaccinations,” Moses Lacy said.  “The government is covering this up and it is a doggone shame,” he said.

Army officials said Rachael Lacy’s case is not included in the regional investigation because she was not in Iraq or Southwest Asia.

The family of one of the two soldiers whose deaths are included in the investigation recently wrote Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld urging him to transfer the investigation’s direction to the civilian Centers for Disease Control.

The Centers for Disease Control currently are “collaborating” with the epidemiological teams in their investigations, according to the Office of the Army Surgeon General’s statement. 

The letter, from the family of Army Spc. Josh Neusche, questioned whether information on the pneumonia cases was being withheld.

“We as a family are concerned that we are not being told the truth,” the letter says.

The family requested access to medical and vaccine records, as well as numerous other pieces of information.

The parents of another soldier, Spc. Zeferino Colunga, who died in Germany after a reported diagnosis of leukemia, wrote an almost identical letter.

In a statement, Army officials said Colunga’s “death was unrelated to the recent cases of pneumonia in Southwest Asia.”

Vaccine Possibly Linked to Two Previous Cases

A study of the effects of the anthrax vaccine used on U.S. forces published in February 2002 by a civilian committee of experts did find that the anthrax vaccine might have caused two earlier pneumonia cases.

That study used data from 602 reports of “adverse events” suspected of being triggered by the vaccine given to nearly 400,000 military personnel.  The vaccine may have caused six medically serious events, including the pneumonia cases, it said.

The analysis concluded, though, that the number of serious events was not large or unusual.

“At this time, ongoing evaluation of [adverse events] reports does not suggest a high frequency or unusual pattern of serious or other medically important [adverse events],” the study said.

In yesterday’s statement, the Office of the Army Surgeon General, also suggested that the numbers of pneumonia cases and resulting fatalities in the region are not out of line with historical data.

“Army-wide, pneumonia serious enough to warrant hospitalization occurs in about 400 to 500 soldiers per year.  Based on this historical data, the approximately 100 total cases of pneumonia in CENTCOM [the Central Command, which operates in Southwest Asia] since March 1 do not exceed expectations.

“Death from pneumonia in a young, otherwise healthy population is rare, but it does occur: from 1998 through 2002, 17 soldiers died from pneumonia or from complications of pneumonia,” it said.

The Army would not provide statistical information, including data showing whether any of the soldiers who developed pneumonia had recently been given smallpox or anthrax vaccinations, saying such data was still under review.

The epidemiological teams “are currently validating the vaccination records; the long period between vaccination and admission is one of the factors that make vaccination unlikely to be a cause,” said Lyn Kukral, a spokeswoman for the surgeon general and the U.S. Army Medical Command.

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United States:  Tooele Flaws Might Have Been Measurement Errors, Not Chemical Releases

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Army officials believe that a recent test failure at the Tooele chemical weapons incinerator in Utah may in fact have been an analytical problem, a spokesman said today (see GSN, Aug. 14).

“We had similar readings when we ran blank feeds,” said Greg Mahall, a spokesman at the Army’s Chemical Materials Agency.

Last week, the Army stopped burning some chemical weapons after it was discovered that test burns of rockets containing VX nerve gas had not destroyed a sufficient amount of the chemical agent.  Officials at the Tooele facility suspected the test reading may have been faulty and they ran the incinerator without any chemical weapons to see if testing equipment still showed that dangerous chemicals were being released.

“You feed nothing [into the incinerator], knowing that you have a zero, to see if you receive a zero,” Mahall said.

Mahall said officials are not yet certain if the problem lies only with the testing equipment, but he said the Army “believes that it is an analytical problem.”

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Japan:  Proposed Missile Defenses Would Build Incrementally, Official Says

Japan’s proposed missile defense system would not initially be able to fully protect the country, but could still serve to deter a possible North Korean attack, a Japanese Defense Agency official said today (see GSN, Aug. 11).

Technical and funding problems would prevent Japan from deploying enough missile interceptor batteries to protect the entire country at the start of the system, a Defense Agency spokesman said.  As a result, officials are holding discussions to decide which sections of Japan to defend first, the spokesman said.  One possibility is that the Defense Agency will focus initially on protecting urban areas and strategic locations by deploying interceptor batteries at six locations, according to the Associated Press.

“Some insist that first Tokyo, Osaka or big cities should be covered, but there are all kinds of discussions,” the official said.  “There has to be some kind of compromise because the number of missiles is extremely limited,” the official said.

The proposed missile defense system is also expected to include at least one Aegis-equipped naval destroyer to track incoming ballistic missiles, AP reported.  Even a limited missile defense system is seen as having a deterrent effect against North Korea, the Defense Agency spokesman said.

“Japan wants a diplomatic solution to the nuclear problem, but at the same time we need a deterrence,” the spokesman said.  “Always at least one ship would be in operation,” the spokesman said (Associated Press/China Post, Aug. 19).

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U.S. Plans:  Raytheon Receives Standard Missile Contract

The U.S. Defense Department awarded a three-year contract to defense contractor Raytheon to develop and produce the Standard Missile-3 for the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system, Aerospace Daily reported today (see GSN, Aug. 18).

The contract, which will be worth as much as $881.4 million, covers engineering, production and testing of five initial missiles and the manufacture of an unspecified number of additional missiles.  Raytheon will also conduct missile research and development work with Japan.

The Pentagon wants to field the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system by 2005 (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily, Aug. 19).

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