Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

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    Issue for Wednesday, September 10, 2003

  Terrorism  
Al-Qaeda Facing Disintegration, But Still Capable of Attacks, CIA Says Full Story
Survey Finds Low Public Confidence in U.S. Health System’s Ability to Respond; RAND Issues WMD Attack Readiness Guidelines Full Story
Maritime Security Makes Progress but Needs More Work, GAO Says Full Story
Recent Stories

  Weapons of Mass Destruction  
Recent Stories

  Nuclear Weapons  
IAEA Board Debates Deadline for Iranian Nuclear Cooperation Full Story
Payment Dispute Slows Talks on  Bushehr Spent Fuel Full Story
Poor Management, Training, Hampers Lawrence Livermore Laboratory’s Security Force Full Story
Former U.S. Envoy Explains Resignation, Calls for Bilateral Talks Full Story
U.S. Air Force Conducts Minuteman 3 ICBM Test Full Story
Recent Stories

  Biological Weapons  
Pentagon Suspects Cigarette Smoking as Cause of Pneumonia Cases Full Story
Recent Stories

  Chemical Weapons  
Recent Stories

  Missile Proliferation  
Recent Stories

  Missile Defense  
Japanese Defense Minister Warns of North Korean Missile Threat Full Story
Recent Stories

  Missile Defense  
U.N. Conference on Disarmament Ends 2003 Session With No Progress on Program of Work Full Story
Recent Stories
 

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Some guys I know I can count on.  But there are some guys I know who are going to tuck tail and run.
—Rodney Harrison, a member of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s security force, describing the ability of his unit to repel a terrorist attack.


IAEA Board Debates Deadline for Iranian Nuclear Cooperation

By Joe Fiorill
Global Security Newswire

VIENNA — International Atomic Energy Agency governing board members unexpectedly adjourned current talks here before noon today and are now holding behind-the-scenes discussions on a U.S.-backed proposal that would give Iran until Oct. 31 to address allegations that it is covertly conducting activities that appear related to nuclear weapon development (see GSN, Sept. 9)...Full Story

Al-Qaeda Facing Disintegration, But Still Capable of Attacks, CIA Says

The CIA has said that although al-Qaeda has suffered devestating setbacks in the U.S. war on terrorism, it remains capable of conducting effective attacks, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Sept. 5)...Full Story

Payment Dispute Slows Talks on  Bushehr Spent Fuel

Negotiations between Moscow and Tehran on an agreement to return spent fuel from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor to Russia are stalled over a payment dispute, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Sept. 8)...Full Story



Current Issue Wednesday, September 10, 2003
Terrorism

Al-Qaeda Facing Disintegration, But Still Capable of Attacks, CIA Says

The CIA has said that although al-Qaeda has suffered devestating setbacks in the U.S. war on terrorism, it remains capable of conducting effective attacks, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Sept. 5).

In a brief provided to U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz prior to his appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, the CIA said that more than two-thirds of known senior al-Qaeda operatives, as well as  10 important al-Qaeda financiers, have been killed or captured.

“The central leadership of al-Qaeda is at growing risk of breaking apart as our blows against the group create a level of disarray and confusion throughout the organization that we have not seen since the collapse of the Taliban in late 2001,” the CIA said in its unclassified brief.

The CIA also warned, however, that even with a lack of senior operatives, al-Qaeda still has available “a large bench of middle managers and foot soldiers” capable of conducting attacks.

“It takes only and handful of terrorists with little more than creativity, dedication, and luck to successfully cause mass casualties,” the agency said (Maxim Kniazkov, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 10).


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Survey Finds Low Public Confidence in U.S. Health System’s Ability to Respond; RAND Issues WMD Attack Readiness Guidelines

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Less than half of Americans believe the U.S. public health system could respond effectively to a terrorist WMD attack, according to a study released Monday by Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.

A telephone poll of 1,373 adults conducted last month found that 46 percent of responders believed the U.S. public health system could effectively respond to a terrorist attack involving biological, chemical or nuclear weapons.  A similar poll conducted last year, however, found that 53 percent of Americans were confident the public health system could respond to a WMD-related attack, according to the study.

Overall, more than 75 percent of Americans are concerned about the possibility of a future terrorist attack in the United States, according to the study.  It also says that 35 percent lack confidence in the federal government’s ability to protect their community in the event of a future terrorist attack.

“This survey reflects an extraordinary lack of public confidence in the nation’s level of preparedness for bioterrorism and major disasters.  And, the fact is that we have not made the kind of progress in these areas that might have been expected two years after 9/11,” Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Mailman School of Public Health, said in a press statement.

Meanwhile, the think-tank RAND today released a new report that provides a number of recommendations for individuals to protect themselves in the event of a WMD attack, warning that the first few minutes following such an attack are the most crucial for survival.

The report, Individual Preparedness and Response to Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear and Biological Terrorist Attacks, outlines immediate goals for those subjected to WMD attacks, as well as specific measures that can be taken to improve safety.  For example, in the event of a chemical weapons attack, the report recommends an immediate emphasis on finding clean air quickly, followed by decontamination and medical treatment. 

In the event of a radiological weapons attack, such as a “dirty bomb,” the report recommends an immediate focus on the avoidance of potentially radioactive dust.  It also recommends that in the event of a full-scale nuclear weapons attack, those affected such evacuate the fallout zone quickly, or if unable to do, find the best available shelter. 

If subjected to a biological weapons attack, the report recommends that the victims seek medical aid and avoid further exposure if possible.  It also warns that in the event of a biological attack involving contagious diseases, such as smallpox, victims should expect to be subjected to surveillance and possible quarantine.

“We found that in most cases, the few minutes immediately following an attack, before professional emergency responders are likely to arrive, are critical to survival,” Tom LaTourrette, an author of the report, said in a press statement.  “Our recommendations are intended to help people act rationally to protect themselves while they are waiting to learn more and for authorities to arrive,” he said.


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Maritime Security Makes Progress but Needs More Work, GAO Says

A top U.S. watchdog yesterday questioned port security assessments being conducted by a Coast Guard contractor (see GSN, Sept. 9).

The General Accounting Office is concerned about the “scope and quality of the assessments,” according to Margaret Wrightson, the General Accounting Office’s director of Homeland Security and Justice Issues.  Wrightson made her statements in a report to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation.

The GAO report did not identify the contractor, who is charging $1 million or more for each assessment.  Auditors interviewed port officials to gauge their opinion of the assessments.

According to officials at one port, their assessment contained “factual errors” and was issued before it could be reviewed.

At another port, “local Coast Guard personnel and port stakeholders noted that a survey instrument referred to the wrong port, asked questions they regarded as not pertaining to security, and was conducted in ways that raised concerns about credibility,” the GAO report says.

The report did say, however, that the Maritime Transportation Security Act “has already produced major changes in the nation’s approach to maritime security” (General Accounting Office release, Sept. 9).


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Weapons of Mass Destruction



Nuclear Weapons

IAEA Board Debates Deadline for Iranian Nuclear Cooperation

By Joe Fiorill
Global Security Newswire

VIENNA — International Atomic Energy Agency governing board members unexpectedly adjourned current talks here before noon today and are now holding behind-the-scenes discussions on a U.S.-backed proposal that would give Iran until Oct. 31 to address allegations that it is covertly conducting activities that appear related to nuclear weapon development (see GSN, Sept. 9).

France, Germany and the United Kingdom yesterday submitted the draft resolution, which was obtained today by Global Security Newswire.  The United States and Japan have associated themselves with the measure, as have at least 10 other countries on the 35-member board, according to diplomats.

A competing South African resolution, which has no other official sponsors but is apparently supported by a number of Nonaligned Movement countries, would have the board call on Iran to step up cooperation with the IAEA but, under the version seen today by GSN, would set no deadline.

Speaking on behalf of the NAM, Malaysian Ambassador Hussein Haniff told Reuters today that setting a deadline for Iran would also imply a deadline for the IAEA.

“We want to give [IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei] a free hand to decide,” he said, adding, “If you have a specific deadline, then there is also a sense that you’re telling (ElBaradei) that you must complete your job by that time.”

Iranian envoy Ali Akbar Salehi said Iran has objections to both texts but that the South African draft is “more negotiable.”

“This business of a deadline, this idea of a deadline, is just absurd,” Salehi said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi also criticized the U.S.-European position, according to Agence France-Presse.

“The posture of certain countries is irresponsible and arrogant,” he said, adding, “If the extremists take control of the matter and do not recognize our legitimate rights to have peaceful nuclear activities, we will then be obliged to review the situation and the current level of cooperation with the agency.”

The board has now wrapped up its whole agenda for the meeting except for an item on Iran’s nuclear programs.  It is expected to reconvene tomorrow morning to discuss Iran.

ElBaradei told reporters just after the board adjourned that “intensive consultations” are taking place.

“There’s a broad agreement that the board would like to see a deadline,” he said, adding that he thinks “Iran should come with an immediate, complete declaration.”

The United States has been the leader in pushing for international action to counter Iran’s alleged bid to develop nuclear weapons under cover of legitimate nuclear activities.  The U.S.-backed draft would have the board call on Iran to “provide accelerated cooperation and full transparency,” “ensure there are no further failures” in reporting of nuclear activities, and suspend uranium enrichment and reprocessing programs “as a confidence-building measure.”

Under the draft, the board would deem it “‘essential and urgent’ … that Iran remedy all failures identified by the agency and cooperate fully with the agency to ensure verification of compliance with Iran’s safeguards agreement by taking all necessary actions by the end of October 2003.”  A Western diplomat said the deadline would give Iran a “significant enough period of time … to comply.”

The “necessary actions” in question, according to the draft, include “a full declaration of the sources and types of all imported material and components relevant to the enrichment program”; “unrestricted access” for IAEA inspectors to conduct facility visits and environmental sampling; the resolution of a contradiction between IAEA experts’ assessment that Iran must have introduced uranium into centrifuges before June and Iran’s claim that it did not do so; the provision of “complete information regarding the conduct of uranium conversion experiments”; and all other actions deemed necessary by the agency.

The board would also call on Iran to “promptly and unconditionally sign, ratify and fully implement” the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would allow more intrusive monitoring by the agency.

The language on the Additional Protocol is one of several key areas where the U.S.-backed draft differs from the South African text.  The former draft would have the board urge Iran to implement the Additional Protocol immediately rather than waiting until it can be signed and ratified, while under South Africa’s draft, the board would ask Iran only to “consider” such interim implementation.

In general, the South African draft implies patience on the board’s part and highlights countries’ right to nuclear energy, while the U.S.-backed text seeks immediate and dramatic action from Iran and stresses the IAEA’s responsibility for helping to prevent nuclear weapons proliferation.  South Africa repeatedly refers to further work that is necessary in order for the board to reach any conclusions about Iran, while the Europeans stress Iran’s alleged failures to comply with IAEA requests and cite Iran’s “heavy responsibility to the international community regarding the transparency of its nuclear activities.”

Both resolutions would have ElBaradei report back to the board at a meeting in November on Iran’s compliance.

“I don’t think it [the South African text] really rises to the same level … of gravitas” as the European draft, said the Western diplomat.  Asked whether the matter will come to a vote, rather than being decided by consensus, the diplomat said, “I’m afraid so.”

Salehi scoffed at the idea of a measure not supported by the whole board.

“If there is a resolution adopted that is not in accordance with our … wishes, then that resolution … is just to be kept in the archives,” he said.


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Payment Dispute Slows Talks on  Bushehr Spent Fuel

Negotiations between Moscow and Tehran on an agreement to return spent fuel from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor to Russia are stalled over a payment dispute, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Sept. 8).

Russia is helping Iran build the Bushehr plant and is planning to supply the plant with nuclear fuel.  Russian officials are insisting, however, that Iran return the spent fuel so that it cannot be reprocessed and used to develop nuclear weapons.

Iran is demanding compensation for the nuclear fuel it returns to Moscow, according to Russian Deputy Atomic Energy Minister Valery Govorukhin, but  Russian leaders would not accept the deal, he said.

“Iranians believe they must get paid for the nuclear fuel being returned to Russia for storage and reprocessing, considering it their property,” Govoruhkin said.  If Iran will not alter its position, he added, Russia intends to charge a higher original price for the nuclear fuel it ships to Iran (Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press, Sept. 10).


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Poor Management, Training, Hampers Lawrence Livermore Laboratory’s Security Force

The guard force at the U.S. Energy Department’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California is not fully staffed, nor has it been fully tested, to defend against the type of terrorist attack the facility could face, the Tri-Valley Herald reported Sunday (see GSN, Feb. 27).

While the facility’s security force is considered to be the best it has been in five years, it is still recovering from its dismantlement in the early 1990s, according to the Herald.  At that time, budget cuts forced Lawrence Livermore to turn over security responsibilities to local law enforcement, but the Energy Department re-established the facility’s Special Response Team in 1998.

Since 1998, however, the team has faced management problems, low pay and weak oversight, resulting in poor morale and training, the Herald reported.  Some team members have questioned its effectiveness if a band of terrorists were to attempt to attack the facility, which contains large amounts of nuclear material.

“Some guys I know I can count on.  But there are some guys I know who are going to tuck tail and run,” said team member Rodney Harrison.  “They’re headed out Westgate Drive.  They’ll say, ‘I didn’t sign up for this,’” he said.

In May, the Energy Department revised the Design Basis Threat, which is the type of terrorist attack a facility must be able to defend against.  At Lawrence Livermore, the DBT increased by 50 percent, envisioning an attacking terrorist force consisting of about 10 members assumed to be suicidal and heavily armed, conducting an attack with a large truck bomb, chemical weapons, or both, according to the Herald.

U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration acting security chief Toby Johnson said he did not know when the guard forces at Lawrence Livermore and other sites would be able to defend against the revised DBT.

“I can’t make an expression of confidence,” Johnson said.  “I think we would say we felt we were generally in good shape against the old design basis threat.  We don’t have enough information on the new one yet,” he added. 

Former Energy security consultant Ronald Timm said he did not believe Lawrence Livermore’s security force was capable of defending against the new threat.

“I can tell you right now, your SRT (Special Response Team) is not adequate out there to meet the new threat,” said Timm, president of RETA Security Inc..  “Anybody who says it’s business as usual is just lying to themselves,” he said.

An Energy spokesman expressed confidence that Lawrence Livermore’s security force could repel a terrorist attack.  “We feel the nuclear material is adequately protected,” said John Belluardo, spokesman for the department’s Livermore Site Office.

Lawrence Livermore security officers expressed doubts that terrorists would even attempt to attack the facility. 

“History is on our side: It hasn’t happened,” said Kory Porter, deputy leader of the laboratory’s Protective Force Division (Ian Hoffman, Tri-Valley Herald, Sept. 7).


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Former U.S. Envoy Explains Resignation, Calls for Bilateral Talks

Jack Pritchard, a former U.S. State Department expert on North Korea, wrote today that his recent resignation was not a protest to the Bush Administration’s policy toward Pyongyang but rather a reaction to being shut out of the multilateral talks on the North Korean nuclear crisis (see GSN, Sept. 8).

In a Los Angeles Times commentary, Pritchard said, “I was brought into this administration precisely because of my experience in dealing with North Koreans, but was now perceived as too soft on North Korea.  I had tendered my resignation April 18 when I was not selected to lead the trilateral talks in Beijing.  Secretary of State Colin Powell asked me to stay on for a while and, out of enormous respect for him, I did,” Pritchard wrote.

He repeated earlier criticism of the White House refusal to participate in direct talks with North Korea.

“It is not possible to have serious, sustained discussion in a plenary setting over a few days.  Six delegations, 24 interpreters and many note-takers guarantee that the reading of scripted remarks is about the only thing that will take place in open session,” he wrote.  “The structure of the six-party talks is useful and will ultimately be a significant part of the solution, but we must be able to engage the North Koreans at length,” he added (Jack Pritchard, Los Angeles Times, Sept. 10).


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U.S. Air Force Conducts Minuteman 3 ICBM Test

The U.S. Air Force today test-launched a Minuteman 3 ICBM, officials said (see GSN, Aug. 8).  The missile was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California and traveled 4,800 miles to the Kwajalein Missile Range in the Pacific Ocean, base spokesman Lloyd Conley said (Associated Press/Newsday, Sept. 10).

The test missile was expected to carry three unarmed re-entry vehicles (Air Force release, Aug. 28).


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Biological Weapons

Pentagon Suspects Cigarette Smoking as Cause of Pneumonia Cases

An outbreak of pneumonia cases among U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and southwestern Asia may be related to the fact that many of those infected had begun smoking before falling ill, U.S. Defense Department official said yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 19).

The Pentagon has ruled out a number of possible causes, such as anthrax and smallpox vaccinations, for the 19 cases of severe pneumonia, including two deaths, that occurred from March to August, according to the New York Times.  Investigators have found that 10 patients, including the two who died, had a high increase in the number of a white blood cell known as an eosinophil.

Nine out of the 10 patients with high eosinophil count reported that they had recently begun smoking, said Col. Bob DeFraites, the Army’s chief of preventive medicine.  Tobacco smoke is known to increase susceptibility to pneumonia, according to the Times.  Smoke, along with a combination of other factors such as heat, dust and stress, may have caused the pneumonia, DeFraites said (Lawrence Altman, New York Times, Sept. 10).


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Chemical Weapons



Missile Proliferation



Missile Defense

Japanese Defense Minister Warns of North Korean Missile Threat

Japanese Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba has warned that North Korean ballistic missiles could quickly hit targets in Japan, highlighting the need for a Japanese missile defense system, the Sydney Morning Herald reported today (see GSN, Sept. 2).

Ishiba is leading efforts to have Tokyo approve plans for a missile defense system, according to the Herald.  He has requested almost $2 billion to develop such a system, with a goal of having it operational by 2006.

During a speech in the central Japanese city of Nagoya, Ishiba warned that a North Korean missile could hit the city within eight minutes.

“We currently have no means of intercepting them,” Ishiba said.  “Should they carry chemical and biological weapons, tens of thousands of people would die,” he said (Shane Green, Sydney Morning Herald, Sept. 10).


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Other Issues

U.N. Conference on Disarmament Ends 2003 Session With No Progress on Program of Work

The U.N. Conference on Disarmament yesterday ended its 2003 session without reaching consensus on a program of work, according to a U.N. press release (see GSN, Aug. 8).

This is the fifth straight year that the conference has been unable to reach agreement on what to discuss, according to the U.N. release.  Because the conference operates by consensus, a single member can prevent the entire body from formally discussing an issue.

The conference ended yesterday with the adoption of its annual report, which noted that conference presidents had tried throughout the session to reach consensus on a program of work.  The conference has also requested that future presidents continue consultations among member countries before the 2004 session begins.

The conference also scheduled the three parts of its 2004 session: Jan. 19 to March 26, May 10 to June 25, and June 26 to Sept. 10, the U.N. release said (U.N. release I, Sept. 9).  Representatives from Kenya, Malaysia, Mongolia, Morocco and Myanmar will preside over the conference throughout 2004.  Kazakhstan has decided to not assume the rotating presidency (U.N. release II, Sept. 9).

 


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