Iraq Posed “No Imminent Threat,” Kennedy Says

U.S. Senator Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) sharply criticized Operation Iraqi Freedom yesterday, saying the Bush administration fabricated its justification for beginning hostilities (see GSN, Sept. 18).

During an interview with the Associated Press, Kennedy accused Bush administration officials of using “distortion, misrepresentation [and] a selection of intelligence” for justifying the war with Iraq.

“There was no imminent threat.  This was made up in Texas, announced in January to the Republican leadership that war was going to take place and was going to be good politically.  This whole thing was a fraud,” Kennedy said.

Kennedy also said that a recent Congressional Budget Office report found that the White House could account for only about $2.5 billion of the $4 billion being spent per month on Iraq.

“My belief is this money is being shuffled all around to these political leaders in all parts of the world, bribing them to send in troops,” he said.

The White House focus on Iraq has resulted in less attention being paid to more direct threats to the United States, such as al-Qaeda, the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula and the continuing instability in Afghanistan, Kennedy said.

“I think all of those pose a threat to the security of the people of Massachusetts much more than the threat from Iraq,” he said.  “Terror has been put on the sidelines for the last 12 months,” Kennedy added (Associated Press/Washington Times, Sept. 19).

Former Iraqi Defense Minister Surrenders to U.S. Forces

Meanwhile, former Iraqi Defense Minister Gen. Sultan Hashim Ahmad surrendered today to U.S. forces in northern Iraq, according to the Washington Post.

Ahmad surrendered to Maj. Gen. David Petraeus after weeks of negotiations, said Kurdish mediator Dagwood Bagistani, who arranged the surrender.  In exchange for Ahmad’s surrender, the U.S. military agreed to remove his name from the list of 55 most-wanted former Iraqi officials, Bagistani said.

“We trust the promise,” Bagistani said.

U.S. forces will only hold Ahmad until his interrogation is complete, according to Bagistani.  Ahmad will not face prosecution, Bagistani said (Associated Press/New York Times, Sept. 19).

In addition, U.S. forces in Mosul have also reportedly been close to capturing Izzat Ibrahim, former vice chairman of the Iraqi Revolutionary Command Council, Reuters reported (Khudeir Majeed, Reuters, Sept. 19).

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Top U.N. Disarmament Official Calls for U.S., Russian Action

By Joe Fiorill

Global Security Newsire

MOSCOW — U.N. Undersecretary General for Disarmament Affairs Nobuyasu Abe said here today that a “collapse” of the international nonproliferation regime is possible without concerted action, notably by the United States and Russia (see GSN, April 1).

Speaking to top experts and officials from 36 countries at a PIR Center-Carnegie Endowment for International Peace nonproliferation conference, Abe cited complaints that disarmament by nuclear weapon states “proceeds at a snail’s pace.”  While calling the charge “legitimate,” Abe said it should not serve as an excuse for other countries to “renege on nonproliferation obligations.”

“The United States and the Russian Federation,” Abe said, “bear a special responsibility as the world’s two superpowers” to contribute to strengthening international norms of disarmament and nonproliferation.  The recent Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty is a significant step, he said, “but we want more.”

Abe — a Japanese diplomat who assumed his position July 1, succeeding longtime disarmament official Jayantha Dhanapala of Indonesia — said the bolstering of international monitoring and verification efforts the most urgent need at the moment in the field.  He said the cases of Iraq and North Korea demonstrate the insufficiency of International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards arrangements but that the Additional Protocol to those agreements can be expected to “greatly enhance” such efforts.

Among other remarks, Abe called for innovative means to prevent biological weapons proliferation in the absence of an effective monitoring system, better physical protection of WMD materials against acquisition by “nonstate actors,” strengthened export controls, better education to “build … a strong norm of prohibition,” and international organization reforms to address a “crisis of multilateral enforcement mechanisms” that encourages unilateralism and coalition-based action.

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Iran, U.S. Trade Barbs on Proliferation, Disarmament

By Joe Fiorill
Global Security Newswire

MOSCOW — One week after the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors set a deadline for heightened Iranian cooperation with the agency, U.S. and Iranian officials traded criticisms here today over Tehran’s nuclear program and Washington’s allegedly lagging efforts to disarm (see GSN, Sept. 12).

The remarks came during the opening day of an international nonproliferation conference organized by the PIR Center and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and attended by high-level officials and top experts from around the world. 

Amid widespread concern that Iran is seeking to develop a nuclear weapon under cover of legitimate nuclear activity, the IAEA board found last week that Iran has insufficiently explained contradictions between Tehran’s description of its programs and the findings of IAEA experts.  As the board handed down a deadline to Tehran, the Iranian delegation walked out of the boardroom and appeared to threaten noncooperation with the agency — a threat since tempered.

U.N. Undersecretary General for Disarmament Affairs Nobuyasu Abe, in a lunchtime address today, said, “There is an urgent need for Iran to accept the recent IAEA governing board resolution and to conclude and implement an Additional Protocol.”  Such a protocol to Iran’s IAEA safeguards agreement has been called for by the agency, the United States and others and would allow for more intrusive IAEA monitoring of Iran’s nuclear activities.

U.S. Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow said this morning in an opening address to the conference that “there are very good reasons to ask whether Iran is heading down the same road” as countries such as North Korea.  Vershbow said such countries demonstrate the “weakness” of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty by remaining within the NPT framework long enough to obtain the building blocks of a weapon program, then abandoning the nonproliferation regime.

In particular, Vershbow cited Iran’s refusal to let IAEA inspectors visit one site until after it had been substantially modified and the country’s shifting statements on whether elements of its uranium enrichment program are indigenous or imported.

“Nothing about Iran’s behavior,” Vershbow said, “is consistent with what one would expect from a country that is honoring its NPT obligations. … Iran is a critical test for the NPT and the international community’s ability to give effective power to the IAEA.”

Iranian Ambassador to Russia Gholamreza Shafei, in remarks read by an aide as part of a panel discussion this morning, largely avoided discussion of the specifics of the case against Iran.  Another Iranian representative, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, who is deputy director general of international political affairs in Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said heightened questions about his country’s nuclear activity are the result not of suspicious behavior but of greater access granted in recent months to the IAEA.

Shafei declared his country theologically opposed to nuclear weapons, alluded to Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapon program as unfair and criticized declared nuclear weapon states for insufficient progress toward disarmament.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran believes, under Islamic principles and beliefs, … that nuclear weapons are inhuman and illegal, and in our defense doctrine, we have not included weapons of this kind,” Shafei said.

Apparently referring to Israel, Shafei said the fact that some countries do not participate in the international nonproliferation regime is a “violation” of the regime that creates rivalries among countries.  He called for a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East and a “very just and nondiscriminatory global decision vis-a-vis international mechanisms of nonproliferation.”

The Bushehr nuclear power plant, set to become Iran’s first major nuclear facility when Russia completes its construction, was also a focus of discussion today at the conference.  Despite caution voiced by the United States, Russia has indicated it is moving ahead with agreements to supply Iran with fuel for the facility and to take back spent fuel from the reactor (see related GSN story, today).

Shafei said Iranian-Russian nuclear cooperation is “pursued in the context of the peaceful use of nuclear energy” and is conducted with appropriate IAEA monitoring.  He stressed that the IAEA’s role is not only to pursue suspected nuclear weapon proliferators but also to aid peaceful nuclear programs.

“The A-bomb and the weapons of mass destruction,” Shafei said, “should have no place in this world.  We are saying no to the A-bomb and WMD, but we are saying yes to the peaceful use of the atom.  No one will ever be able to push us from this way we have taken.”

Carnegie Endowment Senior Associate George Perkovich said Iran “shows the importance of having rules,” since the IAEA will resolve the situation if the country’s programs are in fact peaceful in nature.  He added, though, that if Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon, the international nonproliferation system is “not designed to solve that problem” and that a “broader international effort” will be needed that addresses politics and security in Iran and its region.

Perkovich said U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan or another high international official could “convene a regional dialogue of parties” to determine “just what is the future structure of the Persian Gulf security environment.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev are scheduled to speak this evening at the conference.

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U.S., Russia Extend Specific “Nuclear Cities” Projects Before Broader Agreement Lapses

By Joe Fiorill
Global Security Newswire

MOSCOW — With a key U.S.-Russian threat reduction effort set to expire Monday, U.S. and Russian officials here signed an agreement today authorizing the continuation of ongoing projects under the program (see GSN, July 23).

The Nuclear Cities Initiative agreement will be allowed to expire Monday, U.S. officials here confirmed today, because of U.S. concerns that its liability provisions would not sufficiently protect U.S. officials or contractors in case of injury or damages.  The 1998 Plutonium Science and Technology agreement was allowed to expire in July because of the same liability concerns, which have been a hot topic at an international nonproliferation conference that began here this morning (see GSN, July 25).

Through the initiative, the United States has helped to scale back activities in Russian nuclear weapon sites and to convert some sites to other uses.  According to the U.S. Energy Department’s Web site, the initiative “is the only U.S. government program whose primary aim is to help downsize the Russian nuclear weapons complex.”

Despite the lapsing initiative, 69 existing projects under the agreement will be allowed to continue until completion.  Paul Longsworth, deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, and a Russian counterpart signed a protocol this morning invoking language in the NCI agreement that allows for such extension of projects beyond the life of the agreement itself.

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Prospects for Russian-Iranian Fuel Agreement Played Down as Bush-Putin Summit Nears

Just three days after suggesting that a Russian-Iranian nuclear power plant fuel arrangement was close to completion, a senior Russian official said the agreement was actually far from finished (see GSN, Sept. 17).

“I cannot name a date,” Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev told reporters earlier today in Moscow.  Negotiations were “taking a long time — these are prolonged discussions,” he added.

The two countries are trying to finalize a deal in which Russia would provide fresh fuel for the nuclear reactor it is building in Iran and then Tehran would later return the spent fuel to Russia.  Rumyantsev said Tuesday in Vienna that the deal was nearly done (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 19).

Rumyantsev’s remarks today followed a meeting with U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham (Richard Balmforth, Reuters, Washington Post, Sept. 19).  These talks in turn followed nonproliferation discussions earlier this week in Moscow between U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak (RFE/RL, Sept. 18).

Rumyantsev denied, however, that Russia was deliberating slowing its cooperation with Iran in response to U.S. pressure.

“This does not correspond to reality,” he said (Balmforth, Reuters).

Addressing a nonproliferation conference in Moscow later today, Rumyantsev said the process was only slowed because Iran was conducting these types of talks for the first time.

“Our Iranian colleagues, they have no experience in the use of nuclear energy,” he said, expressing optimism that the deal would be completed.

“They commit themselves to return the fuel,” Rumyantsev said, “We’re going to take it back for them.  There’s no problem” (Joe Fiorill, GSN, Sept. 19).

The slow pace toward finishing the agreement was likely to ease U.S.-Russian tensions on this issue when U.S. Presidents George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a scheduled Sept. 26-27 meeting at the Camp David presidential retreat, Reuters reported (Balmforth, Reuters).

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Cuba Signs IAEA Safeguards Agreement, Additional Protocol

Cuba yesterday signed a comprehensive nuclear safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (see GSN, Nov. 5, 2002).  In addition, Cuba also signed an Additional Protocol to its safeguards agreement, which gives the IAEA the authority to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Havana’s nuclear activities (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Sept. 18).

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U.S. Analysts Struggle to Count North Korean Nuclear Weapons

Although the CIA officially estimates that North Korea might possess one or two nuclear weapons, some U.S. intelligence analysts now fear that Pyongyang could actually have as many as a half-dozen, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 17).

North Korea’s nuclear program is so secretive, however, that precise assessments are difficult to make, officials said.

Analysts said three key variables affect U.S. estimates — how much plutonium North Korea produced in the 1980s, how much it produced this year (see GSN, Sept. 12) and how much plutonium is needed to make a North Korean nuclear weapon.

“We’re trying to nail that down,” said U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), who serves on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.  “The consequences of them having more nuclear warheads is significant, in terms of conducting a test, or possibly trafficking in nuclear materials,” he added.

With so few weapons, each additional warhead would substantially add to North Korea’s nuclear capability and its leverage at the negotiating table, experts said.  If Pyongyang has just one or two nuclear weapons, it could use them only as weapons of last resort, but additional weapons would give North Korea the ability to use some in tests or in warfare and still retain a small number for deterrence.

Furthermore, a surplus of weapons would ease the way toward exporting nuclear materials, the experts said (John Lumpkin, Associated Press/San Francisco Chronicle, Sept. 18).

Chinese Denies North Korean Border Pressure

Meanwhile, Beijing yesterday denied that troop activity along the Chinese-North Korean was intended to pressure Pyongyang.  Hong Kong media reported this week that 150,000 Chinese troops were recently deployed to the border (see GSN, Sept. 15).

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said troops recently took over border control duties as part of a long-planned administrative transition.

“The border between China and the D.P.R.K. is relatively stable, generally speaking,” Kong said, “There are many exchanges, including trade, along the border” (Joe McDonald, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 18).

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Russia Suspends Tu-160 Bomber Flights

Russian Air Force Chief of Staff Boris Cheltsov has said that Moscow has suspended flights of the Tu-160 “Blackjack” strategic bomber after one crashed during a training exercise, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, July 18).  The flights will be suspended until the cause of the crash has been determined, Cheltsov said (Washington Post, Sept. 19).

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IAEA General Conference Approves Agency Budget, New Board Members

Delegates at the International Atomic Energy Agency General Conference, ending today in Vienna, approved the agency’s fiscal 2004-2005 budget yesterday and elected new members to the IAEA Board of Governors (see GSN, Sept. 18).

The conference yesterday approved an agency budget of almost $270 million, which the IAEA board had approved this summer.  The budget represents the “first significant increase” in IAEA funding in 15 years, an agency press release said.  The budget also calls for further phased funding increases through 2007 (see GSN, July 21).

Most of the approved budget’s funding will go toward the IAEA’s verification program.  In addition, funding has also been allocated for safety and nuclear science and technology programs (International Atomic Energy Agency release I, Sept. 18).

The conference yesterday also elected 11 new members to the 35-member IAEA board.  The new members are Belgium, Hungary, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, South Korea, Tunisia and Vietnam.  The board is scheduled to meet next week to elect a chairman and vice chairman for the 2003-2004 period (International Atomic Energy Agency release II, Sept. 18).

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IAEA General Conference Delegates Briefed on Radioactive Waste Safety Convention

Delegates at the International Atomic Energy Agency General Conference, being held this week in Vienna, were briefed yesterday on the status and benefits of an international convention on the safety of radioactive waste and spent fuel management (see GSN, April 4).

The briefing session was in preparation for the first peer-review meeting of convention members, scheduled to be held Nov. 3-14, according to an IAEA press release.  The meeting, the first to be held since the convention entered into force June 2001, will include reviews of national implementation reports to be submitted by the 32 countries that have ratified the convention (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Sept. 18).

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U.S. Scientists Find No Smallpox in Iraq

Senior U.S. military officers involved in the search for evidence of alleged Iraqi WMD efforts have said that a team of U.S. scientists has found no evidence of smallpox stockpiles or production capabilities, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Sept, 18).

A six-member team of scientists, known as “Team Pox,” conducted a three-month search for evidence that Iraq had the capability to produce smallpox, as some Bush administration had previously claimed.  The team found, however, only equipment that had been previously dismantled by U.N. inspectors and abandoned facilities, AP reported.

“We found no physical or new anecdotal evidence to suggest Iraq was producing smallpox or had stocks of it in its possession,” a U.S. military officer said, adding that the team’s findings do not preclude that smallpox could still be found (Dafna Linzer, Associated Press/USAToday, Sept. 19).

Prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom, several senior Bush administration officials raised the prospect of Iraq either possessing smallpox or having the capability to produce the agent, according to the Associated Press.

“One of the real concerns about [former Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein, as well, is his biological weapons capability, the fact that he may at some point try to use smallpox … against other nations, possibly including even the United States,” Vice President Dick Cheney said Sept. 8, 2002 (Associated Press/San Jose Mercury News, Sept. 18).

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Indian Authorities Concerned Terrorists Could Conduct Ricin Attacks

Indian security agencies are concerned that terrorists could conduct attacks using the toxin ricin after learning how to do so from al-Qaeda, the Times of India reported today (see GSN, June 3).

Recent references by al-Qaeda to the disputed region of Kashmir have raised concerns that al-Qaeda may have ties to terrorist groups operating there, a senior home ministry official said.  According to intelligence reports, al-Qaeda leaders have provided information to operatives on the production and use of ricin, the official said.

Some experts suspect that several outbreaks of “mysterious diseases” occurring in various parts of India could be “tests” of biological attacks, the Times reported (C.R. Jayachandran, Times of India, Sept. 19).

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Panama Rejects U.S. Plan to Clean Up Abandoned Weapons

Panama has rejected a U.S. plan to clean up abandoned chemical weapons on San Jose Island off the country’s coast, Xinhua News Agency reported today (see GSN, May 28, 2002).

Last month, the United States agreed to provide Panama with $2 million, equipment and training to remove the weapons.  Panama rejected the U.S. proposal, however, because Washington would not admit its responsibility in polluting the island, according to Panamanian Ambassador to the United States Roberto Alfaro.

“The United States wanted to be freed from every responsibility, but that Panama could not accept,” Alfaro said (Xinhua News Agency, Sept. 19).

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Inadequate Funding Threatens Russian CW Destruction, Foreign Aid

A Russian lawmaker cautioned today that inadequate domestic funding for destroying Russian chemical weapons would not only slow the program but would jeopardize the contributions of other nations.

“The draft budget for 2004 allocates 5.36 billion rubles [$176 million] for implementing the presidential program of chemical weapons destruction in the Russian Federation, which is equal to this year’s allocations,” said Nikolai Bezborodov, deputy chairman of the Duma Defense Committee and a member of the state commission for chemical weapons destruction (see GSN, June 10).  “This amounts to 46 percent of the 11.58 billion rubles [$381 million] supposed to be allocated for this sector under the program in 2004,” he added.

“As a result, the U.S. will not resume the provision of $200 million for the construction of the chemical weapons destruction facility in the town of Shchuchye in Kurgan region.  The U.S. is ready to resume the funding if Russia and donor countries allocate at least $50 million for Shchuchye,” Bezborodov said (see GSN, June 9; Interfax/BBC Monitoring, Sept. 19).

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United States Penalizes Chinese Firm for Exporting Missile Technology

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The United States has imposed sanctions against a Chinese firm for alleged missile technology sales, according to a notice published today in the Federal Register (see GSN, July 30).

Last month, the United States determined that the state-owned China North Industries Corp. (Norinco) had engaged in missile technology proliferation activities, according to the notice (see GSN, July 3).  Under the sanctions, which take effect today, Norinco will be prohibited from importing items controlled by the Missile Technology Control Regime annex or the Export Administration Act of 1979 and from entering into contracts with Washington relating to such items for two years.  Norinco is also banned from exporting all goods to the United States for two years.

Norinco is no stranger to U.S. sanctions, having been sanctioned twice for alleged missile-related transfers in the last four months.  In July, the company was sanctioned for allegedly transferring items to Iran that could make a “material contribution” to Tehran’s WMD or ballistic missile programs.  In May, the United States sanctioned Norinco for allegedly aiding Iran’s ballistic missile program (see GSN, May 23).  Norinco, however, has denied providing missile assistance to other countries. 

Today’s notice does not identify the alleged recipient of the missile technology transfer that triggered the latest sanctions.

In late July, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance Paula DeSutter called on China to do more to curb ballistic missile exports, calling such exports the “most significant proliferation concern” the United States has with China (see GSN, July 28).  During a hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, DeSutter identified Norinco as a “serial proliferator.”

“For some time, we have been alerting the Chinese government to our concerns about the activities of Norinco,” DeSutter said.  “Nonetheless, the Chinese government appears to have taken no action to halt Norinco’s proliferant behavior,” she added.

Today’s announced sanctions would also apply for two years against all other Chinese state-owned entities engaged in activities related to the development of ballistic missiles, electronics, space systems and military aircraft, according to the notice.  The U.S. State Department determined, however, that it is “essential to the national security of the United States” to waive the additional sanctions for one year, the notice says.

“These are the strongest sanctions we’ve ever imposed on China,” the Washington Times today quoted a State Department official as saying.

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U.S. Forces in South Korea Display PAC-3 Interceptor Batteries

U.S. forces in South Korea yesterday displayed new Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptor batteries about 50 miles south of the North Korean border, according to the Washington Times (see GSN, Sept. 16).

The U.S. military currently has four PAC-3 batteries and four PAC-2 batteries deployed in South Korea, the Times reported.  The PAC-3 battery can carry up to 16 interceptors, while a PAC-2 launcher can only carry four interceptors (Washington Times, Sept. 19).

North Korea yesterday criticized the PAC-3 upgrade, calling the move “preparations for pre-emptive strikes” against Pyongyang.

“If the United States wants to resolve the nuclear problem peacefully, it must stop the war preparations and change its hostile policy on the D.P.R.K.,” the North Korean state-run television said.  “The U.S. arms buildup in South Korea is creating a stumbling block to resolving the nuclear problem as it is dangerous war preparation to increase tensions on the Korean peninsula,” it said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 19).

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