Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

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    Issue for Friday, September 5, 2003

  Terrorism  
WMD Acquisition Is “Top” Al-Qaeda Objective, U.S. Homeland Security Department Warns Full Story
Recent Stories

  Weapons of Mass Destruction  
Officials Reach Agreement on Suspect Cargo Interdiction Effort at Paris Meeting Full Story
Iraq War Justified by Iraqi Capabilities, Not Actual WMD, Bolton Says Full Story
Recent Stories

  Nuclear Weapons  
IAEA Seeks Iranian Clarifications on Heavy Water Reactor Full Story
CTBT Conference Ends, Issues Declaration Calling for Universal Treaty Ratification Full Story
Bush Authorizes Concessions to North Korea Full Story
Washington Investigates French Company for Iran Shipment Full Story
U.S. Energy Department to Issue Fewer Polygraph Tests, Official Says Full Story
Recent Stories

  Biological Weapons  
Project Bioshield Could Allow Withholding Drug Information From Military Personnel Full Story
Scientific Community Struggles to Balance Openness, Security Full Story
U.S. Postal Service to Test Fumigate Anthrax-Contaminated New Jersey Facility Full Story
Recent Stories

  Chemical Weapons  
Thousands of False Alarms, 10 Actual Sarin Leaks Plague Anniston Incinerator Full Story
London Plans Subway Chemical Attack Exercise Full Story
Recent Stories

  Missile Proliferation  
Recent Stories

  Missile Defense  
Pentagon Considers Airborne Laser for ICBM Defense Full Story
India, Israel to Move Forward Next Week on Early Warning Radar Sale Full Story
Recent Stories

  Missile Defense  
Recent Stories
 

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Whether he possessed them today or four years ago isn’t really the issue. … As long as that regime was in power, it was determined to get nuclear, chemical and biological weapons one way or another.
—U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton, explaining the U.S. justification for removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq.


IAEA Seeks Iranian Clarifications on Heavy Water Reactor

By Joe Fiorill
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The International Atomic Energy Agency has asked Iran to explain why it has not declared plans to acquire “hot cells” for handling highly radioactive material at its planned heavy water reactor at Arak...Full Story

Project Bioshield Could Allow Withholding Drug Information From Military Personnel

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Congressional leaders may soon address a proposed law that critics say would reduce the U.S. military’s obligation to inform soldiers about the health risks of unlicensed biological defense drugs and vaccines they might be required to receive in an emergency...Full Story

Thousands of False Alarms, 10 Actual Sarin Leaks Plague Anniston Incinerator

The U.S. Army’s chemical weapons incinerator in Anniston, Ala., has experienced 10 sarin gas leaks and thousands of false alarms in the first month of operations, the Birmingham News reported yesterday(see GSN, Sept. 2)...Full Story



Current Issue Friday, September 5, 2003
Terrorism

WMD Acquisition Is “Top” Al-Qaeda Objective, U.S. Homeland Security Department Warns

The U.S. Homeland Security Department yesterday warned that al-Qaeda has made the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction for future attacks a leading priority (see GSN, Sept. 2).

In an advisory issued yesterday, Homeland Security said that al-Qaeda has so far not conducted a successful attack using weapons of mass destruction.  The department warned, however, that obtaining and using such weapons remains “a top al-Qaeda objective.”

“We believe it [al-Qaeda] continues to research more advanced CBRN [chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear] operations, including production of pathogenic organisms and toxins, as well as, high impact dissemination methods such as contamination of water and food, and aerosolization of an agent in enclosed densely populated space,” the department said.

In its advisory, the department said it was “concerned” about al-Qaeda’s efforts to conduct attacks against the United States, based on a review of information leading up to the second anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.  The department added, however, that there was no specific information on possible attacks.

Homeland Security warned that recent attacks in Saudi Arabia and Iraq suggest that al-Qaeda is interested in conducting attacks against “soft” targets — those with minimal physical protection.  Some reports have mentioned plans involving apartment complexes, gas stations and restaurants, the department advisory says.  It also warns that al-Qaeda operatives may use “novel methods” to conduct suicide bombings, such as disguising male operatives as women to avoid scrutiny.

In addition, the department said al-Qaeda is interested in conducting attacks against U.S. infrastructure targets because “of their potentially significant economic and psychological impacts” (see GSN, Aug. 21).  Such targets include nuclear power plants, chemical facilities, water reservoirs and the U.S. food supply.

The Homeland Security advisory said there is no change anticipated to the U.S. terrorism threat level, which currently stands at yellow, indicating an “elevated” risk (U.S. Homeland Security Department release, Sept. 4).

Homeland Security chose not to raise the terrorism threat level to orange, indicating a “high” risk of attack, because “the intelligence information we have isn't specific enough to do that,” department spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Instead, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge told governors and state security officials during a conference call that “they should review and maintain their security procedures,” Johndroe said (Mintz/Goo, Washington Post, Sept. 5).

Meanwhile, the FBI believes that there are a small number of al-Qaeda sympathizers within the United States providing financial and logistical support to the organization, and who could possibly be called upon to conduct attacks, the bureau’s counterterrorism chief, Larry Mefford, said yesterday.

Al-Qaeda’s base of support in the Untied States “is very small, but it certainly exists,” Mefford said.  “Someone could transform rapidly from providing logistical support to a terrorist organization to actually planning an attack, so it’s of great concern to us,” he said (Eric Lichtblau, New York Times, Sept. 5).


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Weapons of Mass Destruction

Officials Reach Agreement on Suspect Cargo Interdiction Effort at Paris Meeting

Officials from 11 countries yesterday signed an agreement outlining measures to interdict suspect cargo shipments of WMD-related materials by boarding ships and forcing airplanes to land, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Sept. 4).

The agreement, reached during a two-day meeting in Paris, established guidelines for increased international cooperation in the U.S.-initiated Proliferation Security Initiative, AP reported.  The agreement also calls for revising domestic and international laws to improve interdiction efforts and intelligence sharing.

The 11 countries involved in the initiative are Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.  U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said the United States is also interested in recruiting China and Russia to participate.

“While interdiction actions are already a reality, efforts to enhance our collective capabilities for action are essential,” Bolton said (Associated Press/Los Angeles Times, Sept. 5).

China, however, has criticized the effort, questioning its legality, the BBC reported today.

“The best way to prevent proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is through dialogue,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said.  “We understand the concerns of some countries about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. ... But many countries still question the efficiency and legitimacy of adopting this kind of measure,” the spokesman said (BBC News, Sept. 5).

The 11 nations also agreed to conduct a series of 10 air, land and sea interdiction exercises over the next six months, according to the Washington Times.  The first exercise, “Pacific Protector,” is scheduled to begin next week in the Coral Sea off northeast Australia.  The exercise is set to include ships from Australia, France, Japan and the United States, the Times reported. 

Future exercises in the series are expected to be held in the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean, officials said.

The agreement to conduct the exercises was “a very clear demonstration that what we’re involved in here is not a diplomatic exercise,” Bolton said (David Sands, Washington Times, Sept. 5).


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Iraq War Justified by Iraqi Capabilities, Not Actual WMD, Bolton Says

The recent war in Iraq was justified because former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein maintained a cadre of nuclear weapons scientists, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said yesterday, adding that whether Iraq actually possessed weapons of mass destruction was not “really the issue” (see GSN, Sept. 3).

“The issue I think has been the capability that Iraq sought to have … WMD programs,” Bolton said (see GSN, May 23).

Hussein maintained “a coterie” of scientists with the goal of resuming the development of nuclear weapons once free of international restrictions, Bolton said.  That, when combined with Iraq’s history of misleading U.N. weapons inspectors, illustrated that Hussein could not be trusted not to develop weapons of mass destruction, he said.

“Whether he possessed them [weapons of mass destruction] today or four years ago isn’t really the issue,” Bolton said.  “As long as that regime was in power, it was determined to get nuclear, chemical and biological weapons one way or another,” he said (Associated Press/USA Today, Sept. 5).

British Intelligence Inquiry

Meanwhile, British senior judge Lord Hutton has suspended a parliamentary inquiry that has recently heard testimony on whether British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s government exaggerated prewar intelligence on Iraq to build the case for war, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Sept. 4).

Hutton adjourned the inquiry until Sept. 15 to allow time to consider what witnesses should be recalled and what evidence should be focused upon, AP reported.  The inquiry was convened to investigate the apparent suicide of former U.N. weapons inspector David Kelly, who was identified before his death as the possible source for a BBC report that Blair’s office exaggerated intelligence information contained in a September 2002 dossier (Jane Wardell, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 5).

Blair himself yesterday defended the decision to go to war with Iraq, acknowledging that his government has come under fire.

“It’s been a tough time for obvious reasons, but I do not believe we should change our course because I believe in it,” Blair said during a press conference.

Blair also indicated that he had no thoughts of resigning, according to the New York Times.

“I carry on doing the job because I believe in what I’m doing,” Blair said (Warren Hoge, New York Times, Sept. 5).


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Nuclear Weapons

IAEA Seeks Iranian Clarifications on Heavy Water Reactor

By Joe Fiorill
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The International Atomic Energy Agency has asked Iran to explain why it has not declared plans to acquire “hot cells” for handling highly radioactive material at its planned heavy water reactor at Arak.  The agency request was described in a confidential report on Iran submitted last week by IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei to the agency’s Board of Governors (see GSN, Sept. 4).

The absence of hot cells from design plans Iran submitted to the agency in August is “contrary to what would be expected, given the radioisotope production purposes of the facility,” the report says.  According to the report, Iran has said it is building the heavy water reactor as a “research reactor suitable for medical and industrial isotope production and for R&D [research and development] to replace the old research reactor in Tehran.”  The reactor is scheduled to begin construction next year.

In explaining its request for clarification from Iran, the IAEA also made reference to recent reports of Iranian efforts to import equipment that could be used in hot cells.

The request comes amid widespread allegations that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons even as it claims it is maintaining its Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty commitments.  While a heavy water reactor could be used to produce isotopes and for research, such reactors are also among the most popular for producing plutonium for nuclear weapons.

Experts said the inconsistencies inherent in Iran’s description of the heavy water reactor, while not damning in isolation, constitute an important plank in the case against Iran.

“It’s a curious thing with the Iranian story in general that everything kind-of-sort-of makes sense by itself, but … all together, it’s starting to look really suspicious,” Federation of American Scientists Strategic Security Project Director Ivan Oelrich said yesterday.

Oelrich said isotope production and research is “certainly a plausible explanation for what they’re doing” but that the “buildup” of inconsistencies in Iran’s claims gives pause.

Institute for Science and International Security President David Albright said Iran’s explanations of its heavy water activity are “just viewed as not very credible. … It inevitably increases suspicions that they had some secret plutonium activities going on.”

According to the IAEA report, Iranian officials have said they tried repeatedly to import a reactor to produce the isotopes and conduct research but failed and “concluded, therefore, that the only alternative was a heavy water reactor” using indigenously produced uranium dioxide.

Albright said, though, that if Iran came into compliance with its NPT obligations and signed the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, “It’s quite likely that they could import a research reactor.”  He added that Iran’s stated purposes could be served by a 10-megawatt reactor — the planned Arak facility is a 40-megawatt reactor — and that if it is making isotopes, the country would do better to use enriched uranium than the natural uranium planned for Arak.

Asked about the hot cells, Albright said, “Again, it’s just one of these things —  are they trying to avoid a discussion of reprocessing? … I’m just waiting for them to say, ‘Yeah we’re going to build a reprocessing plant.”

Nevertheless, added the former U.N. inspector, “The evidence that there is secret reprocessing activity is lacking right now.”

Heavy water activity in Iran first came to light in August of last year with the revelation by the National Council of Resistance of Iran of a heavy water production facility at Arak, which was subsequently visited by the IAEA. 

After denying for a time that the heavy water production implied eventual use in a reactor, Iran presented details in July on the Arak reactor and submitted updated design information to the IAEA Aug. 4.  In a letter dated Aug. 19, Iran told the IAEA it decided two decades ago to begin heavy water research and development and conducted laboratory experiments in the mid-1980s, finally deciding in the mid-1990s to build a reactor.


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CTBT Conference Ends, Issues Declaration Calling for Universal Treaty Ratification

A three-day meeting in Vienna of Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty signatories ended today with the issuing of a final declaration calling for universal ratification of the treaty (see GSN, Sept. 4).

In the final declaration, delegates reaffirmed “the importance of the treaty and its entry into force for the practical steps for the systematic and progressive efforts towards nuclear disarmament and nuclear nonproliferation,” according to a CTBT Organization press release.

The declaration also contains 12 measures to help promote the treaty’s entry into force, including the creation of regional seminars to “increase awareness” of the treaty’s role, the CTBT Organization release said.  The declaration also recommends that the organization’s Provisional Technical Secretariat continue to provide legal aid to countries with respect to treaty ratification and implementation, as well as establish a contact point to improve information sharing.

Conference delegates also expressed concern that the treaty had still not entered into force seven years after opening for signature, according to the release.  They stressed the need for the 12 countries that need to ratify the treaty for it to enter into force to promptly do so (CTBT Organization release, Sept. 5).


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Bush Authorizes Concessions to North Korea

U.S. President George W. Bush authorized U.S. diplomats last week to say that Washington is prepared to offer incentives to North Korea, including easing sanctions and a possible peace treaty, but some U.S. officials are not certain North Korea understood the U.S. position, according to reports (see GSN, Sept. 4).

Under the U.S. offer, the potential assistance would be administered gradually as North Korea dismantles its nuclear weapons capability, officials said.  Bush had previously said that North Korea would receive no assistance until it completely dismantled its nuclear infrastructure and gave up its nuclear weapons.

“We’re going to give these talks a real chance,” national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said last night.  “This is the best opportunity for getting a resolution for a long time,” she added.

She tempered her remarks, however, by saying that “a lot depends on North Korean behavior” (David Sanger, New York Times, Sept. 5).

A senior U.S. State Department official, however, said that North Korea might not have understood the new overtures, which were made last week during six-nation talks in Beijing.

“I am disappointed because their presentations were quite prescripted.  They seemed to have little to do with what we were saying, or what others were saying,” the official said (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, Sept. 5).

During the talks North Korea reportedly twice threatened to demonstrate its nuclear capabilities, according to a senior State Department official.

“These words are very disturbing.  And I hope that Pyongyang realizes that provocative actions can and will have consequences, whether it’s to the atmosphere of the talks, or something more than that,” the official said (Tim Johnson, Knight Ridder, Sept. 5).


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Washington Investigates French Company for Iran Shipment

U.S. authorities are investigating a French firm that might have illegally shipped pumps to Iran that could be used in Tehran’s suspected nuclear weapons program, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Sept. 4).

The cryogenic fluid transfer pumps could be used as part of a cooling system for Iran’s planned nuclear reactors, according to Treasury and Commerce department officials.  Technip-Coflexip might have diverted the pumps in January to Iran’s nuclear efforts, according to the Times.

“That’s the immediate concern,” a Commerce Department official said.  The export of the pumps is controlled, because of their nuclear capabilities, but the equipment can also be used to transfer liquid natural gas to commercial ship containers.

The allegations of nuclear use were made by an unidentified informant, according to the Treasury Department (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Sept. 5).

United States Drafts Resolution

Days ahead of the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors’ meeting, Washington has prepared a draft resolution alleging that Iran has violated the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.  U.S. officials have distributed the draft to some of the 35 nations on the IAEA board to gauge international reaction.

The board meeting is scheduled to begin Monday (Washington Times, Sept. 5).

“We would look for the board to take appropriate action,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher (Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, Sept. 5).


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U.S. Energy Department to Issue Fewer Polygraph Tests, Official Says

The U.S. Energy Department plans to reduce using polygraph tests to screen employees who work on nuclear weapon-related issues, a senior official said yesterday.

In testimony before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Deputy Energy Secretary Kyle McSlarrow said the new policy would probably reduce the number of polygraph tests administered from about 20,000 to 4,500.  Energy has come under fire over the last year for its polygraph policy and has come to agree with some of the criticism it has received, McSlarrow said.  For example, a U.S. National Academy of Sciences panel released a report last October saying polygraph testing was too flawed for use in security screening, according to the New York Times.

As a result of the criticism, Energy officials proposed “substantial changes” in the tests’ routine use, McSlarrow said.  The new policy does not mean, however, that the department will cease using polygraph testing all together, he said.

“No one has suggested that we abandon their use, or that we hire people and entrust them with national defense information with no prior checks or reviews whatsoever,” McSlarrow said.

Committee Chairman Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) yesterday praised Energy’s decision to revise its polygraph testing policy.

“This is a smart decision,” Domenici said.  “I have been appalled by the DOE’s continued massive use of polygraph tests in the wake of a national study condemning the reliability of these tests.  Our national scientists deserve better,” he said (William Broad, New York Times, Sept. 5).


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Biological Weapons

Project Bioshield Could Allow Withholding Drug Information From Military Personnel

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Congressional leaders may soon address a proposed law that critics say would reduce the U.S. military’s obligation to inform soldiers about the health risks of unlicensed biological defense drugs and vaccines they might be required to receive in an emergency.

The provision, contained in the House version of the Project Bioshield Act of 2003, would allow officials to respond to some emergencies by administering drugs to the nation that have not been approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

The law would require officials to inform potential drug recipients of the drug’s potential health risks and to get the recipients’ consent to administer the drug, but it would also permit the president and other senior officials to waive these requirements when delivering the drugs to U.S. military personnel.

Representative Christopher Shays (R-Conn.) recently criticized that provision.

“I am concerned that certain provisions of section 4 of the bill will unfairly treat the men and women of our armed services,” he said in a July dialogue with House Committee on Energy and Commerce Chairman Billy Tauzin (R-La.).

Existing federal law, that Shays helped draft following the 1991 Gulf War, already permits the president to waive the consent requirement for military personnel if obtaining consent is infeasible, contrary to the best interests of the individual, or not in the interests of national security.  In addition, the law requires that potential recipients must be told that they have the right to refuse the drug, although they might be discharged from the military or jailed if they do so.  It furthere requires that all recipients be first informed of the product’s unapproved status and of its potential side effects.

Under the proposed changes, the president would continue to be able to waive the consent requirement, but he would also be able to waive the requirement to notify potential recipients that they may refuse the drug.  Furthermore, the Health and Human Services secretary could authorize delaying the notification of recipients of their potential health risks.  The proposed law says the information would be provided to the drug recipient, or next-of-kin in case of a death, no later than 30 days after the individual received the drug.

Steve Robinson of the National Gulf War Resource Center, a veterans group, opposes the new language.

The military will say it’s “for the cause of good order and discipline, because if one person said ‘no,’ a thousand could.  But we’re supposed to be the kind of society that evolves and I think our soldiers are smart enough to at least be told of the risks and, in certain cases for certain drugs, have a choice,” he said.

Tauzin said the disputed provision was intended only to eliminate an individual’s right to refuse a drug, not to deny drug recipients information on potential health risks, except in “extraordinary circumstances.”

Tauzin said his committee reviewed the language and found it could be confusing.

“We intend the waiver authority in this bill to be used only in the very extraordinary circumstances that we describe in the bill,” he said.

Tauzin said he would work with Shays “to make sure that the final version of this bill from the conference that we will have with the Senate, I am sure, provides that our military are informed of the drugs that are given before these drugs are administered.”


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Scientific Community Struggles to Balance Openness, Security

By Neil Munro

National Journal

Periodically, huge infestations of mice burst across Australian farmlands, destroying crops and livelihoods.  With the government perpetually looking for new ways to control the plagues, a small group of Australian scientists published a new method for killing millions of the vermin.

But the recipe, which appeared in the February 2001 issue of the Journal of Virology, could be modified by terrorists to kill millions of humans.  It showed scientists around the world how to supercharge diseases such as smallpox by tinkering with a gene, Interleukin-4.  The article caused an uproar in scientific circles because of its possible terrorist uses but received little attention in official Washington.  Perhaps the muted reaction was the result of an impenetrable title: “Expression of Mouse Interleukin-4 by a Recombinant Ectromelia Virus Suppresses Cytolytic Lymphocyte Responses and Overcomes Genetic Resistance to Mousepox.”  Washington’s reaction also owed something to policy makers’ long-standing willingness to allow scientists to regulate themselves.

But 9/11, the anthrax attacks on Congress, and the ever-present threat of bioterrorism are changing that attitude.  Government officials are growing more worried that scientists’ new “recipes” could fall into the hands of terrorists reading the science community’s online journals.  In March 2002, the White House sent a memo to Cabinet chiefs saying that the protection of scientific “information from inappropriate disclosure should be carefully considered, on a case-by-case basis.”  Last October, the House Science Committee held a hearing on science and security.  And in August, Representative Nick Smith (R-Mich.) chairman of the Research Subcommittee, said his panel would watch for the publishing of data from government research studies that would leave “us more vulnerable.”

The science community now finds itself under increasing pressure from Washington to reduce the chance that one of its articles will “end up in a cave in Afghanistan with yellow highlighter all over it,” explained Donald Kennedy, editor of Science, a journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Scientists see two threats.  The first is a plague that could slaughter millions of people in a world made small by air travel and global commerce.  The second is a political backlash that might come even before the plague and that could curb the competitive hunt for breakthroughs, new therapies, and technologies, while limiting the improved professional opportunities that come with such advances.

To reduce both threats, the private National Academy of Sciences, which regularly helps the federal government on scientific and technical matters, has formed a panel of top scientists to consider scientific practices.  The practices under scrutiny include the open publishing of discoveries, the sharing of disease samples, and the widespread recruitment of foreign scientists for low-paid research jobs in labs.  Biologist Gerry Fink heads the panel.

Early this year, NAS officials also joined editors of prestigious biology journals in promising to act cautiously when publishing studies that could be used by terrorists.  “We’re really doing a very careful balancing act” that weighs too little caution against too many controls, said University of Louisville professor Ron Atlas, then-president of the American Society for Microbiology, which owns the Journal of Virology.  “If we are not careful, then science does not advance and we don’t get the cures we need.”

The stakes are extremely high, and not only because of the bioterrorism threat.  The sprawling debate over professional self-governance will also shape the way the United States and the world manage such high-impact endeavors as human clinical trials, genetic engineering, and cloning, each of which carries potential benefits and risks.  “There’s a 50 percent risk of a severe setback to civilization by the end of the century,” says Martin Rees, a well-regarded astrophysicist at the University of Cambridge who also holds the title of Astronomer Royal.  The risk exists partly because the diffusion of scientific knowledge allows a few people to wreak great damage, Rees said, but also because “for the first time, human beings themselves are going to change [on account of] genetic modification, targeted drugs, and even implants in the brain.”

In the face of such risks, he said, “all we can hope for is emollients, and not even pleasant ones.”

Life in the Lab

Scientists’ motivations and values affect the science community’s ability to govern itself.  “The strongest motivation for scientists is being respected by leaders” in science, said Bruce Alberts, president of the National Academy of Sciences.

“We care a lot about how other scientists think about us, and we don’t care a lot about others who are not scientists.”

Scientists win respect through competitions to publish or criticize papers, to patent lucrative discoveries, and to lengthen their resumes, some of which run longer than 20 pages.  Harold Varmus, who directed the National Institutes of Health under President Clinton, described in the June 7, 1999, issue of The New Yorker his own emotions when working in the laboratory:

“There are a lot of juices flowing as you work in the lab.  So many things are at stake!  Careers, competition, people’s ideas of how the world works.  And then succeeding at the bench gives you this incredible rush that is high up there on the scale of human pleasures.”

This intellectual environment fosters many shared values among scientists worldwide, creating “a special clan, a family who have a special allegiance to each other” regardless of nationality, Alberts said.  “We can appreciate a wonderful piece of work done in Japan or Iran for its own elegance.”

Scientists’ allegiance to the clan helps them manage routine issues within their community, including fraud, human error, workplace safety, and the allocation of resources.  This self-policing, buttressed by scientists’ almost complete reliance on one another for grant recommendations and awards, ensures that those who deceive their colleagues are “done,” said Mary Good, former undersecretary of technology in the Clinton-era Commerce Department.

The result of such clannishness, Alberts said, is that the community can punish those who go against its values.  He cited Carl Sagan, a noted scientist who achieved fame in the 1980s by hosting popular TV documentaries.  Other scientists, however, criticized Sagan as being “too immodest in seeking other kinds of community accolades,” Alberts said.  This distance from the larger community is also visible in the area of religion.  Only 7 percent of 517 NAS members declared a belief in a God, according to a survey published in 1998 by the journal Nature.  Yet 59 percent of Americans said that religion is very important in their lives, according to a poll released in December by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

In a sharper departure from mainstream thinking, some scientists favor research in pursuit of the technological evolution of humanity — and sometimes even its replacement by new forms, such as vast networks of highly intelligent robots.  These advocates include highly respected scientists, such as Mihail Roco of the federal National Science Foundation, who is a leader of the government-wide nanotechnology program, and Hans Moravec, a government-funded robotics scientist at Carnegie Mellon University.

Roco proposes “the right of each individual to advance” with the aid of technology, and Moravec welcomes the replacement of humanity.  “Rather quickly, [robots] could displace us from existence,” Moravec wrote in an article posted on his Web page in 2000.  “I consider these future machines our progeny, ‘mind children’ built in our image and likeness ... It behooves us to give them every advantage and to bow out when we can no longer contribute.”  In February, Moravec formed a company to sell robots for labor-intensive tasks, such as driving forklifts.  (His December 2000 paper estimates that there are more than a million forklifts in the United States.)

Indeed, most scientists adopt utilitarian perspectives on ethical and political questions, and they use their values to estimate costs and benefits.  But society often trumps such utilitarianism, Alberts said.  As an example, he noted that science could learn much by experimenting on death-row inmates  — a practice that was widespread with ordinary inmates until public opposition ended it in the 1970s.  “If it was purely up to scientists, they might accept the idea of doing experiments on death row,” Alberts said.  “The person will be dead in six months anyway.”

This utilitarianism is reflected in the way scientists approach lobbying.  When asking for funding or trying to fend off regulation, science advocates normally promise to deliver jobs and cures.  And scientists have successfully preserved much legal authority for themselves.  Every year, panels of scientists assembled at the National Institutes of Health or at research universities adjudicate tens of thousands of requests for federal grants and thousands of proposed medical experiments.  In the vast majority of these cases, the panels enforce various federal laws, especially those dealing with human experimentation, without fuss or controversy.

But sometimes the panels fail to protect patients and provoke regulatory intervention: On July 3, NIH’s Office for Human Research Protections condemned multiple universities and research centers for failing “to include death as one of the risks” when asking patients or their guardians to join a study of alternative therapies for acute respiratory distress syndrome.  According to critics, including the New York-based Alliance for Human Research Protection, the experiment resulted in the deaths of some 37 patients.

Scientists vary in their willingness to accept direction from the public, said Kennedy.  Some scientists champion public oversight and think they “ought to have a sense of responsibility to that public.”  Others, Kennedy said, “don’t think the laity ought to be telling them what to do.”  This mixed perspective stands in contrast to the near-universal expectation among scientists that politicians should boost spending on science, base more decisions on science, make more use of the NAS, and re-establish Congress’s Office of Technology Assessment.

When scientists do listen to public concerns, it’s often unclear whether they are motivated by a selfless ethic or by the fear of public intervention.  Both motivations come into play, Alberts said, and he cited as an example the 2002 NAS report urging a temporary ban on efforts to clone a human for birth:

“The reason we got so many people to work on that report [was fear that flawed cloning attempts] would have the same kind of effect as the mad-cow disaster has had on the respect and support for science” in the United Kingdom.  In the 1990s, British scientists received much of the blame for the spread of mad-cow disease and the exposure of citizens to this ghastly and fatal illness.  Since then, the British public’s opinion of science has fallen sharply, fueling several other controversies over science-related issues, such as the safety of vaccines and genetically modified crops.  In many cases, scientists’ ethical concerns do coexist with self-interest.  “We’d all be haunted if some publication in my [NAS] journal were used to make a biological weapon,” Alberts said.

Closing the ‘Cookbook’

The science community’s efforts to head off the threat of bioterror have been extensive but, critics complain, inadequate.

In February, 32 senior scientists and science journal editors called a press conference to announce new procedures for reviewing articles that might contain information of value to terrorists.  Scientists said that these new standards would affect very few articles.  Atlas, the former president of the American Society for Microbiology, said a review of 14,000 articles sent to the ASM in 2002 identified 224 that raised “surface questions,” but only two needed to be modified because they contained “cookbook” information detailing ways to make bioweapons.  “We do not want to release information if we see greater danger than benefit,” Atlas said.

Pentagon officials are free to classify research they have paid for.  However, science advocates maintained, the Pentagon should not try to curb sensitive but unclassified information.  Atlas and the editors rejected a suggestion to exclude a broader range of cookbook information.  Such information is needed, he said, to let other scientists verify claims and to avoid the wasteful pursuit of false leads.  Also, much information — including the workings of the Interleukin-4 gene — has multiple uses, many of them beneficial, and this multiplicity increases the payoff from wide distribution of research.

Atlas pointed out that the international science community is far larger than it was during the Cold War, when a cadre of nuclear physicists closely held data on nuclear weapons.  For example, the ASM, which is one of many biology societies, has 42,000 members, with almost one-third of them outside the United States.  Because of the vast scope of the science community, scientists must rely on the journals — including the ASM’s 11 — for information since they cannot create private channels for sharing sensitive cookbook information, Atlas said.

Science organizations have also emphasized compliance with existing regulations on the handling of dangerous materials, such as disease samples.  “ASM members are advised to exercise prudent attention to biosafety and to be vigilant concerning unusual occurrences,” states an alert on the ASM’s Web site, asm.org.  The regulations were established in 1999 and strengthened by two anti-terrorism acts, the USA PATRIOT Act of 2001 and the Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002.  The preparedness act requires registration of scientists working with a select list of diseases and poisons.

These regulations met the needs of science, say science advocates, partly because science groups lobbied against tough restrictions on foreign scientists and laboratory equipment.  For example, scientists persuaded congressional staff members to drop a proposal that would have barred foreign scientists and students from working in the United States.  Instead, the law places restrictions on foreign scientists from only a few countries.  Scientists did not get everything they wanted, such as a provision that would have allowed in any foreign scientist if given White House approval, Atlas said.

Science groups are also pressing the State Department to change visa procedures to help foreign students enroll at U.S. universities.  The students provide much of the high-skill, low-wage labor employed by university scientists.

Alongside these measures, Atlas said, and in continued discussions with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, “we’re developing an ethos and ethical posture within the community” to ensure that the benefits of published science outweigh the risks.  “Largely, that’s it.  Hopefully we’re going to be OK in the broader community.”

John Marburger, the scientist who directs the White House technology office, endorsed the science community’s efforts.  “The response by the journals that publish research on molecular biology and cell biology has been very good ... [although] we don’t have good indicators for the kinds of things we want to limit,” he said.  Marburger added, “I’ve been impressed by how much cooperation the higher-education community has given to keeping track of foreign students.”  Overall, the bioterror problem “has been such an intense topic of conversation, most people are already doing things they should do.”  Early this year, the Bush administration requested for fiscal 2004 more than $1.7 billion for research intended to counter bioterror plagues, as well as additional money to improve the security of laboratories.

Will Scientists Govern Themselves?

The biological research community has its critics.  George Poste, a biotech-industry executive and the chairman of the Pentagon’s Task Force on Bioterrorism, called the community “naive, arrogant, and delusional ... It is not sufficient for scientists to say ‘Just trust us,’” Poste told an interviewer for Red Herring, a technology business magazine.  “If the research community doesn’t lead the debate, then the politicians will, and those well-intentioned legislative actions could damage the ability of [research] information to be used for beneficent purposes.”  Poste is the chief executive officer of Arizona-based Health Technology Networks and a director at several biotechnology firms.

Atlas said, “I would not agree with the assessment at all.”  Scientists have already created public panels to handle difficult issues, including debates over genetic engineering, he said, and “that worked very well [and] was very reassuring to both scientists and the public.”

These panels, however, have generated some criticism, in part because of the growth of for-profit scientific research at universities.  On the issue of human experiments, critics argue that many scientists serving on the universities’ Institutional Review Boards, which review proposals for experimental treatments on people, have close ties to for-profit companies.  “Almost half of all faculty IRB members serve as consultants to industry,” states a recent survey of 2,989 IRB members at 121 of the nation’s top academic medical centers.  The survey, conducted by several researchers, including Eric Campbell of Harvard Medical School, was published in the August 2003 issue of the journal Academic Medicine after being reviewed by other scientists.

More broadly, “self-government is not working because [scientists] don’t accept the restraints,” said Wesley J. Smith, a left-of-center critic of the science community.  In the debate over human cloning, he said, scientists try to get past public concerns by using nonscientific arguments, punishing dissident scientists, suppressing contrary data, and changing the meaning of terms.  “How can we trust them when they skew what they put in their journals and skew the language?” he asked.

But Alberts cited cloning as a good example of the science sector’s willingness to govern its activities.  Scientists oppose reproductive cloning, he said, but endorse cloning for experimentation because it will aid research.  Curbing research for the sake of preserving human embryos “is not a reasonable way to think about humanity,” he said, partly because “many religions decide you’re a human being when you have a brain.”  If an embryo does not have a brain, “it doesn’t seem to me to be a human being.”

In any debate over proposed government regulation, Alberts said, “science has an advantage because ... [advocates of regulation] have had a very hard time coming up with a method that could work without the deep commitment of the science industry.”

Although Marburger praised the science community’s role in the bioterror debate, he also endorsed regulation and oversight — partly because he said scientists are not especially expert in gauging the public consequences of their private research.

“My experience is that scientists and everyone else try to keep their work secret if they think people will complain about it, and then go ahead and do it,” he said.  “That’s just human nature.”

The government and the science community need to reach out to each other, said David Heyman, director of Science and Security Initiatives at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  The national security agencies need more expertise in the life sciences, he said, and scientists need a better understanding of the terrorist threat, even at the beginning of new research projects.  In the post-9/11 era, “you have a cultural change that needs to be appreciated in the life-science community ... [and] getting folks to agree on what constitutes a risk if published is the nexus of the issue.”  Heyman added that some “research results, and perhaps all of them, may have a dual use” in therapeutic and terror efforts.

John Steinbruner, director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, advocates a three-tier oversight system in which politicians, religious leaders, and experts on social issues would work with scientists to guard against dangerous research.  At the lowest tier, panels at universities and research centers would watch over potentially dangerous activities.  At the next level, national panels would oversee implementation of standards governing moderately dangerous research.  At the highest level, an international body, including scientists, would have the authority to ban certain practices, such as the experimental insertion of the Interleukin-4 gene into flu viruses.  “There is no good model or precedent” for oversight, Steinbruner said.  But “we’ve learned that anytime a community is susceptible to bias in its own interest, and is doing things that have general consequences, there’s need for scrutiny.”

Interpol, the 181-nation international police organization based in France, has also called for change.  In July, Interpol’s secretary-general, Ronald Noble, urged countries to approve new laws that would hinder terrorists’ access to critical information and laboratory equipment.  Barry Kellman, the director of the International Criminal Justice and Weapons Control Center at DePaul University and an Interpol adviser, backs new “biocriminalization” efforts that would ban unlicensed research on dangerous pathogens.

The highly competitive and anti-regulatory bioscientists are adjusting to the culture shock of political demands for safeguards against bioterror, said Kellman, who worked on the NAS’s soon-to-be-released Fink report.  In the scientists’ deliberations over the draft report, “the question went from whether to regulate to how to regulate,” Kellman said.  Overall, “I see a lot of signs of change in a remarkably short time frame.”

Political approval for any oversight mechanism will not be easily won without the science community’s support.  Some Democrats, including Represenative Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) argue that the White House is politicizing science in multiple areas, including stem-cell research and environmental studies, and that further regulation would only allow more opportunities for such interference.  Many Republicans are also leery of regulation, in part because the universities work closely with businesses to boost local economic development.

Discussions about creating an oversight mechanism are in a very early stage, Heyman said.  According to Steinbruner,  “This dialogue does not have enough standing yet in the science or policy community for the politicians to be able to deal with it.”

“We don’t feel we’ve got the solution,” said Thomas Shenk, a molecular biologist at Princeton University and the current president of the ASM.  Any solution must apply worldwide, he noted, and rapid research is still needed to deal with infectious diseases, the world’s top killers.  “It is a work in progress,” he said.

The gap between scientists and national security experts remains wide, and was well illustrated by a story in the Washington Post on August 28.  The piece described the science community’s growing support for Thomas Butler, a scientist who has been charged with smuggling bubonic plague samples into the United States and with lying to investigators.  Butler’s supporters claim that personal transport of disease samples is common, and that the 15 felony charges are too aggressive for a scientist who “has always been lax about paperwork and regulations.”  The Committee on Human Rights, a group based at the NAS, is leading the protest.  The group’s chairman, Torsten Wiesel, a former president of Rockefeller University, told the Post that it is “important for the scientific community to say:  This is a man we trust; see that this person is dealt with due respect.”

None of the players in the debate over scientists’ self-governance and bioterrorism could predict how it will all come out — perhaps with a compromise, perhaps with sudden intervention by the government after a terrible event.  Participants in other debates on cloning, genetic research, and nanotechnology express the same uncertainty.  “We never know when we find the right balance” between regulation and scientific autonomy, said one Hill staffer.

But many of the players in these debates agree on one general principle: “Society has a right to expect it will be protected from the dire effect of experimentation, especially if the science is paid for by their taxes,” said Marburger.  “Their elected representatives will respond.”


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U.S. Postal Service to Test Fumigate Anthrax-Contaminated New Jersey Facility

The U.S. Postal Service today is expected to test a fumigation system at the anthrax-tainted Hamilton postal facility near Trenton, N.J., as part of its efforts to decontaminate the facility, according to the Associated Press.  The plant has been closed since October 2001 (see GSN, April 11).

The test will involve only a small amount of chlorine dioxide gas and will pose little risk to area residents, said Postal Service spokesman Burt St. John.  Chlorine dioxide gas was previously used to decontaminate other facilities contaminated by anthrax during the 2001 anthrax attacks. 

If the test is successful, further tests are scheduled to occur later in the year, with full fumigation to begin in November, St. John said.  Postal officials said the facility would be reopened in spring 2004 if the decontamination is successful (Associated Press/USA Today, Sept. 5).


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Chemical Weapons

Thousands of False Alarms, 10 Actual Sarin Leaks Plague Anniston Incinerator

The U.S. Army’s chemical weapons incinerator in Anniston, Ala., has experienced 10 sarin gas leaks and thousands of false alarms in the first month of operations, the Birmingham News reported yesterday(see GSN, Sept. 2).

Since operations began Aug. 9, the facility has experienced false alarms from overly sensitive monitoring equipment, according to Army scientists and technicians.  The monitors are sometimes set off by diesel trucks in the incinerator’s parking lot or by some roofing materials, according to the News.

The Army confirmed that 10 alarms indicated actual leaks, but officials said that the potentially contaminated areas were pressurized so the gas would not escape.

“It is the truth that we will have open containers of agent, and we will have agent readings in the facility,” said Time Garrett, project manager for the incinerator (Katherine Bouma, Birmingham News, Sept. 4).


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London Plans Subway Chemical Attack Exercise

Hundreds of British emergency responders are expected to take part Sunday in a simulated chemical weapons attack on the London Underground subway system, according to the Financial Times (see GSN, Aug. 12).

The exercise is scheduled to occur at the Bank subway station in London, the Times reported.  British Home Secretary David Blunkett said he hoped the public would be “reassured” by the exercise (Burns/Milne, Financial Times, Sept. 5).


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Missile Proliferation



Missile Defense

Pentagon Considers Airborne Laser for ICBM Defense

The U.S. Defense Department is considering expanding the Airborne Laser’s prospective target list to include ICBMs, but a recent Pentagon analysis found that a “comprehensive” laser defense against ICBMs would require between 100 and 125 aircraft, Air Force Magazine reported this month (see GSN, Sept. 3).

The Pentagon has not yet made a decision about “the full application of ABL,” said program director Col. Ellen Pawlikowski.  She said that officials are considering the weapon for use in theater and national missile defense.  “We can contribute to both of those missions, in the boost phase,” she added.

To provide a “comprehensive” defense against nations with ICBMs, however, would require flying aircraft continuously in as many as 25 areas, according to a Pentagon official who has looked into a variety of missile defense architectures.  To maintain this defense, as many as 125 aircraft might be needed, according to the official.  A “highly capable” national defense would require 10-15 orbits, Air Force Magazine reported.

The Missile Defense Agency has only said it is planning to build seven Airborne Laser systems.

The laser system’s components will be integrated and installed this winter, and a ground test period is scheduled for spring 2004, Pawlikowski said.  Officials are currently working toward an intercept test by early summer 2005.

Officials have battled weight problems with the laser system, which Pawlikowski said came from inaccurate estimates.

“We’re getting ‘actuals’ in, as opposed to estimates,” she said, adding that the weight has added up to “far more than we had originally anticipated at critical design review” (John Tirpak, Air Force Magazine, September 2003).


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India, Israel to Move Forward Next Week on Early Warning Radar Sale

Israel is expected to move forward on the sale of three Phalcon airborne early-warning radar systems to India during a summit between the two countries scheduled to begin next week, according to the Wall Street Journal (see GSN, May 16, 2002).

The $1 billion Phalcon system sale is expected to be a key topic during the Israeli-Indian summit, the Journal reported.  The Phalcon is a Russian-built Ilyushin aircraft equipped with an Israeli radar.  Because some of the technology used in the system was jointly developed by Israel and the United States, U.S. approval was needed before the sale could go through, according to the Journal.  The U.S. State Department dropped its objection to the transfer earlier this year.

The Phalcon systems could help provide India with a further military advantage over its South Asian rival Pakistan by providing the capability to monitor aircraft and radio transmissions from hundreds of kilometers away, according to the Journal.  India is expected to use the systems to monitor Islamic militant groups in the disputed region of Kashmir.

“It’s a very sophisticated piece of kit that’ll give India a big strategic advantage over Pakistan,” said Nick Cook, an aerospace consultant with Jane’s Defense Weekly (Chazan/Solomon, Wall Street Journal, Sept. 5).

Meanwhile, the United States has not yet decided to grant Israel approval to sell the jointly developed Arrow missile defense system to India, according to The Hindu (see GSN, Aug. 18).  The review of the proposed sale is “ongoing,” sources said (C. Raja Mohan, The Hindu, Sept. 5).  

 


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