Threat Assessment: Rogue States Seen Posing Missile Threat                              

The United States faces a growing threat from long-range ballistic missiles being developed by rogue states such as North Korea and Iran, often with the aid of foreign nations, according to CIA Deputy Director John McLaughlin, reported Jane’s Missiles and Rockets yesterday.   “The willingness of some to make these technologies available – for a price, to be sure – has enabled emerging missile states to accelerate their current programs and to lay the groundwork for future systems with greater capabilities and longer ranges,” McLaughlin told the 4^th Annual Space and Missile Defense Conference, which met in Huntsville, Alabama, Aug. 21-23.

Intelligence reports have forecast that North Korea is the prime threat, followed by Iran and then Iraq, according to McLaughlin.  The missile threat from these countries is different than that posed by Soviet ICBMs during the Cold War, said McLaughlin.  “The emerging missile threat … will be, not only fewer in number, but lower in terms of accuracy, yield, survivability, reliability, and range-payload capacity.”  Some nations might not even test their long-range missiles, according to McLaughlin. For these nations, “it may be enough to demonstrate their capabilities in the form of a space launch vehicle – a strategy that could achieve the twin goals of deterrence and prestige without the political and economic costs that a long-range ballistic missile test might bring,” said McLaughlin.

North Korea 

North Korea has planned the Taepo Dong-2 missile, a two-stage version of which could reach parts of the United States and a three-stage version could reach anywhere in Europe or the United States, according to McLaughlin.  The missile has yet to be flight tested due to a self-imposed test moratorium, which North Korea plans to end in 2003 (see GSN, Sept. 19).  Meanwhile, “the Taepo Dong program remains very much alive, and the North Koreans have the ability to resume tests with very little warning and deploy the missile shortly thereafter,” McLaughlin said.

Iran

Iran will soon be able to deploy the Shahab-3 ballistic missile, which has a range of 1,300 kilometers and could reach Israel (see GSN, Sept. 28), parts of Saudi Arabia and even Turkey, according to McLaughlin, adding that Iran has indicated plans to develop missiles with even longer ranges.  “Most analysts believe that Iran is likely sometime in the next 10-15 years to test an ICBM that could hit the United States.  They further believe such a test could come as early 2005, although that is less likely given the ground Iran must cover,” McLaughlin said.

Iraq

Two short-range missiles Iraq is developing, the al-Samoud and Ababil-100, could be upgraded for longer ranges, according to McLaughlin.  Iraq may even be hiding a small number of al-Hussein missiles capable of hitting targets in Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, said McLaughlin.  “[Iraq], too, could develop an ICBM capability sometime in the next 15 years with foreign assistance,” McLaughlin said.      

“Missile proliferation is a changing business and the changes are making it harder to track and control, increasing the risk of an unpleasant surprise,” McLaughlin said.  “More players are proficient at the use of denial and deception.  They have been aided by continued leaks and disclosures of information revealing the intelligence community’s sources and methods, and helping states involved in proliferation to conceal their activities.”

Ship-Based Missile Threat?

U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said during a recent trip to Russia that a nation, which he only identified as a “rogue state,” has successfully demonstrated the shipborne launch of a ballistic missile. Such a technique would enable a country to launch weapons of mass destruction over an intercontinental range by a shorter-ranged ballistic missile, according to Rumsfeld, who declined to comment which specific nation was involved (Jane’s Missiles and Rockets, Oct. 1).

To read the CIA’s latest assessment of countries acquiring technology relating to weapons of mass destruction, click here.

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