Afghanistan: U.N. Plans Reconstruction

The U.N. Security Council yesterday unanimously adopted a resolution reaffirming that the United Nations should play a "central role" in supporting the Afghan population in setting up a new and transitional post-Taliban government.  The council also voiced its full support for the efforts of U.N. senior envoy for Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi.

The resolution calls for the new government to be "broad-based, multiethnic and fully representative of the Afghan people and committed to peace with Afghanistan's neighbors," while also respecting human rights codes, honoring international obligations and facilitating the urgent delivery of humanitarian aid and the return of refugees (U.N. Newservice, Nov. 14).  To read more on the council's action click here.

Following the action yesterday evening, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said the world body now has a formal standing on which to move forward.  "We've done quite a bit of contingency planning and Mr. Brahimi is doing his best to bring the parties together as quickly as we can," he said.  "We are beginning to send our staff back into Afghanistan to continue their humanitarian and other work and to provide whatever service and assistance that we can provide.  And so in the next few days you will be seeing the U.N. streaming back into Afghanistan to do their work" (U.N. Newservice).  Annan said U.N. personnel would begin to return to Kabul tomorrow (BBC Online, Nov. 15).

The council also called on all Afghan forces to refrain from "acts of reprisal, adhere strictly to their obligations under human rights and international humanitarian law" and to ensure the safety and security for U.N. and humanitarian staff.  The resolution also encourages countries to support efforts to guarantee the safety and security of areas no longer under Taliban control, especially Kabul (U.N. Newservice).

The United States says that aspect of the resolution gives a green light for coalition troops to help maintain law and order in major tracts of Afghanistan captured by anti-Taliban forces.  While the resolution makes no direct reference to a multinational force being dispatched to the country, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Negroponte said "it welcomes the efforts of those members of the coalition who are either in Afghanistan at the moment or prepared to do so to help ensure security in that country, especially the capital of Kabul."

Anticipating adoption of the U.N. resolution, the United Kingdom said yesterday that several thousand of its soldiers are ready to deploy as a "stabilizing force" in Northern Alliance-controlled cities, while France, New Zealand and Indonesia have also offered to send troops.   Turkey has pledged the help of its special forces and offered peacekeepers.  The United Kingdom and France, however, have said another council resolution will be needed in the future in order to authorize an international force (Edith Lederer, Associated Press, Nov. 15).

British U.N. Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock said the council wants Brahimi to convene a meeting of Afghan leaders as soon as possible to discuss a transitional administration.  Abu Dhabi's state-run television reported yesterday that the United Arab Emirates has agreed to a U.N. request to host a meeting for all the Afghan factions.  Brahimi said he had not yet decided on a venue, but said he hopes the meeting will take place sometime next week, diplomats said (Edith Lederer, AP/Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 15).

A U.N. spokesman said in Pakistan yesterday that in light of the approval of the U.N. resolution, senior U.N. officials are preparing to travel to Kabul as soon as security conditions permit.  "I can confirm that this trip will take place as soon as possible and will include political and humanitarian components," said Eric Falt, director of the U.N. Information Center.  The team will include U.N. envoy Francesc Vendrell, deputy to Brahimi, and U.N. regional humanitarian coordinator Mike Sackett among others (U.N. Newservice II, Nov. 14).

The Globe and Mail reports, however, that the Northern Alliance is insisting that it will take care of security in Afghanistan and that an international peacekeeping force is unnecessary.  Within the past 48 hours, the alliance has also rejected U.S., British and U.N. calls to establish a broad-based government, according to the Globe and Mail. 

The National Post, on the other hand, cites Northern Alliance Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah as saying opposition forces do not intend to rule the country, although the Northern Alliance does want a role in the future government.  The National Post also says the foreign minister welcomes U.N. involvement and has called on all Afghan factions to come to Kabul to discuss a new government (Steven Edwards, National Post, Nov. 14).  Yesterday, however, Abdullah reportedly told Abu Dhabi television that Afghanistan will not need peacekeepers, the Financial Times reports.

"The obstacle to achieving peace is of course the Taliban and the terrorists," he said.  "After getting rid of the Taliban and the terrorists, there won't be war and won't be a need for international peacekeeping forces" (Carola Hoyos, Financial Times, Nov. 15).

U.S., U.K. May Have Been Caught Off-Guard by Developments

Meanwhile, there is concern at the United Nations that the United States and the United Kingdom were caught off-guard by the sudden retreat of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and are not prepared to replace the current regime with a solid new government.  "This has taken everyone by surprise," said U.K. Foreign Secretary Jack Straw.  "We can plan ahead, but we are not clairvoyants" (Joe Lauria, Boston Globe, Nov. 15).  Straw has not ruled out the possibility of U.S. and U.K. troops being sent to Kabul to deal with short-term security crises, adding that a search is currently on for countries that will contribute to an international military force that would keep an eye on opposition forces if security deteriorates in Kabul (Edwards, National Post).

The Boston Globe also reports that the developments may be having a dramatic effect on U.S. attitudes toward the United Nations.  According to U.N. Association of the United States Chairman William Luers, for the first time since the Gulf War a decade ago, Washington recognizes that it cannot achieve its aims without the world body's help.  "Nobody in the U.S. by definition could be seen as objective enough and neutral enough with this issue to try to pull all forces together, particularly if they want to include some of the so-called moderate elements of the Taliban," Luers said (Lauria, Boston Globe).

Some top U.S. experts on Afghanistan are saying that despite military gains in Afghanistan, the United States is facing a different challenge when it comes to aiding the establishment of a new transitional government in Afghanistan, adding that the slow pace of international diplomacy and developing rivalries in the scramble for power in Afghanistan are already jeopardizing hopes for future stability.  The Los Angeles Times reports that creating a post-Taliban government "has hit serious potholes" already with deposed Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani of the government recognized by the United Nations saying Wednesday that he will oppose efforts to install former Afghan King Zahir Shah as head of the new government (Robin Wright, Nov. 15).

To read a Washington Post story on the possible future role of the exiled king, click here.

Russian Experts Warn of Potential Guerrilla Offensive

Russian military experts warned yesterday that the Taliban's apparent retreat might just be the beginning of a guerrilla offensive that would prolong the war and lead to the destabilization of neighboring Pakistan.  "What is very suspicious is how easily the Taliban is surrendering major cities in Afghanistan," said Alexei Arbatov, a senior member of Parliament and a leading defense analyst.  "It's quite possible that this is their tactic and that they will then start to ... conduct full-scale guerrilla warfare which would put the Northern Alliance virtually in a stage of constant siege."

Dimitry Olshansky, former top civilian adviser to Soviet-backed governments in Afghanistan, said about the Taliban withdrawal from Kabul and other major cities, "Such unexpected things do not happen just like that.  To assume that they were scared by the Northern Alliance was a joke because the Northern Alliance was dozens of kilometers from Kabul" (Dave Montgomery, Knight Ridder Newspapers, Nov. 15).

Meanwhile, U.S. Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said that with the Taliban retreating and in apparent chaos, suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden may be more dangerous and unpredictable than before, raising the potential for another terrorist attack on the United States.

"If bin Laden and al-Qaeda believe their reputations have been diminished because of the success of our military campaign, they may decide to demonstrate to the world that they are still a force," Ridge said through a spokesman yesterday.  "We've got to be ready" (Steve Goldstein, Knight Ridder Newspapers, Nov. 15).

Warlords from both the Taliban and Northern Alliance met for several hours yesterday in Emam Sahib to try to negotiate the surrender of Kunduz, the Taliban's last stronghold in the north of the country where a large garrison of Taliban troops is currently trapped by opposition forces.  By early today, however, it looked as if negotiations had broken down and U.S. fighter jets began striking Taliban positions outside Kunduz, the New York Times reports (Dexter Filkins, Nov. 15).

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said yesterday in Washington that the Taliban is "in retreat virtually all over the country" (Steven Gutkin, AP/Nando Times, Nov. 14).  Taliban forces were said to be crumbling across the country yesterday as the regime lost control of Jalalabad and faced an insurrection in Kandahar (Wolffe/Nicoll, Financial Times, Nov. 15).  In the midst of the regime's deterioration, U.S. forces are pursuing bin Laden and Taliban leader Mohamed Omar who are believed to be on the move as the Taliban loses control (AP/Baltimore Sun, Nov. 15).

Countries, Groups Express Concern for Civilians

Pakistan yesterday deplored the deaths of innocent civilians in Afghanistan and called on the United Nations to investigate human rights abuses by Northern Alliance forces.  "Attempts should be made to maintain security in Kabul and it makes all the more necessary that a multinational force is quickly dispatched to Kabul," Foreign Office spokesman Aziz Khan said.  He said that Pakistan intends to raise the human rights issue with all the counterterrorism coalition members and human rights agencies (Dawn, Nov. 15).

Amnesty International today criticized the international community for supplying weapons to Northern Alliance, saying that the opposition forces' leaders have "blood on their hands."  Amnesty International's general secretary, Irene Khan, said countries that have sold arms to the alliance should share responsibility for the killings of Afghan civilians by the forces (Reuters, Nov. 15).

The United States has insisted that the Northern Alliance rein in human rights abuses in captured cities and asked that the alliance recognize that a future Afghan government must represent all ethnic groups (Gay Alcorn, Sydney Morning Herald, Nov. 15).  Opposition envoy Ravan Farhadi told the U.N. General Assembly yesterday he regrets "any ill treatment" of Afghans after Taliban forces fled Kabul and said the opposition is committed to building a broad-based government in Afghanistan.  Farhadi, who represents the deposed Afghan government, said the opposition forces "were left with no option but to dispatch a limited number of police" in Kabul after Taliban fighters left Kabul "on the verge of chaos" (AP/ABCNews.com, Nov. 14).

Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Association of the Women of Afghanistan issued a statement yesterday calling on the United Nations to dispatch peacekeepers to Afghanistan before the Northern Alliance can "repeat the unforgettable crimes they committed in the past."   The association said it is concerned that the opposition forces will intensify ethnic and religious conflicts and set off another civil war in its efforts to remain in power (Dawn II, Nov. 15).

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Threat Assessment: Bin Laden’s Desperation

Osama bin Laden, suspected mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States and previous terrorist acts, could be more dangerous than ever since the Taliban are retreating and his security is increasingly at risk, said senior U.S. officials, according to a Knight Ridder article today.

“If bin Laden and al-Qaeda believe their reputations have been diminished because of the success of our military campaign, they may decide to demonstrate to the world that they are still a force.  We’ve got to be ready,” said a spokesman for U.S. Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge yesterday.

Historically bin Laden’s terrorism network Al-Qaeda patiently spent time planning effective and impressive attacks, but if under threat, the organization could depart from its careful pattern and strike out in whatever way it could, experts said.  “They are in the midst of a war.  The time to strike is any time.  Instead of a big spectacular attack, there could be smaller ones—at a mall, a truck bomb—there is no end of possibilities … They have to react because they have to show they are alive and kicking,” said Yonah Alexander of the Potomac Institute of Policy Studies. 

Recent statements by bin Laden, including a claim to possess nuclear weapons (see GSN, Nov. 12), have shown a more desperate and aggressive attitude, experts said.  The statements have been “over the top … I can almost see him spinning out of control … This feels increasingly grandiose and megalomanic.  Maybe he would be inclined to act,” said Jerrold Post, a former CIA terrorism profiler now at George Washington University.

Bin Laden appeared more “hard-hitting and aggressive” in a recent interview—a change from his relaxed demeanor in previous interviews, according to Hamid Mir, a Pakistani journalist who interviewed bin Laden last week (see GSN, Nov. 12).  “We are waiting for the Americans and Britishers to come inside Afghanistan, and then the real war will be started,” said bin Laden, indicating al-Qaeda and the Taliban had set a trap for the United States and Britain, according to Mir.

Even if bin Laden is killed, al-Qaeda could still pose an increased threat, experts said.  “There would be an effort to show bin Laden lives, even if [the United States] take him out,” said Leonard Cole of Rutgers University (Steve Goldstein, Knight Ridder, Nov. 15).

Problems in U.S. Law Enforcement Preparation

U.S. police officials told a U.S. House of Representatives committee Tuesday that FBI officials refused to share essential information about terrorist threats with police, even though recent legislation granted new authority to the FBI to share important information gained from foreign intelligence and grand jury information (see GSN, Oct. 26).  The legislation did not determine exactly how information sharing should occur.

“Here we are now, more than two months after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, and the next piece of information [from the FBI] I get will be the first piece,” said Philadelphia Police Commissioner John Timoney, adding, “We need to put aside our egos and really cooperate and coordinate for the better good.”

Kathleen McChesney, an FBI assistant director assigned to increasing cooperation with local police, said the agency had worked to increase cooperation, including establishing 36 Joint Terrorism Task Forces with local authorities, although she acknowledged obstacles existed, such as the inability of the FBI computers to send e-mail to anyone outside the agency.

U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft has said increased communication is critical.  “The battle against terrorism will require an unprecedented level of cooperation among all members of the law enforcement community and beyond,” he said Tuesday.  Ashcroft ordered each U.S. attorney’s office to appoint an officer responsible for consulting with state and local police (Savino/Murphy, Miami Herald, Nov. 14).

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International Response:  New Anti-terrorism Legislation

New legislation introduced in the United States and Canada would give the governments increased funding and powers against terrorism, according to reports today.

A U.S. Senate bill calls for more than $3 billion to help U.S. preparations for a potential bioterrorism attack, the Associated Press reported today.  The funding, twice what U.S. President George W. Bush has proposed, would go toward anti-bioterrorism efforts such as stockpiling vaccines and antibiotics, increasing food inspections and increasing money available for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Senator Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) said (see GSN, Oct. 18). 

Frist, along with Senators Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), planned to introduce the legislation today.  Bush administration officials were involved in the negotiations that produced the bill, Frist said.  White House Budget Office spokeswoman Amy Call said the administration would work with Congress to pass an anti-bioterrorism measure (Associated Press/RealCities.com, Nov. 15).

Canada

Canadian Justice Minister Ann McLellan is expected to outline next week how much she is willing to change an anti-terrorism bill that has provoked criticism from both sides of the Canadian Parliament, according to the National Post.  “She will be signaling the areas where changes may come,” a senior strategist said.  “But I don’t know how specific she’ll get.”

There are several components of the bill, Bill C-36, that have come under attack, according to the Post.  They include allowing arrest and detention of suspected terrorists for up to 72 hours without charge, compelling suspects to testify before a judge at an investigative hearing, and defining terrorism so broadly that many groups have said they are worried they could be prosecuted for protests or strikes.

The Canadian Justice Department has been preparing possible changes to the bill, but McLellan will make the final decisions, likely with the aide of Canadian Prime Minster Jean Chretien, officials said.  “Ministers have got a number of options before them,” said an official.  “It’s a political question right now” (Jim Brown, National Post, Nov. 15).

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Afghanistan: Brahimi Releases Transitional Plan

As the opposition Northern Alliance tightened its hold on the capital and continued to make gains across Afghanistan, top U.N. Afghanistan envoy Lakhdar Brahimi yesterday presented his plan for a political transition in the country to the Security Council. 

Brahimi told the council beginning work on an interim administration and setting up an "international security force" in Kabul are paramount because of the city's "immense symbolic value."  Diplomats told the New York Times Brahimi's plan for an urgent meeting of various Afghan groups will receive unanimous support, with one U.S. source saying Washington supports the plan "totally."

Brahimi stressed the need for a "homegrown" political solution that "enjoys the support of all the internal and external players," warning of "spoilers from the inside or outside who would disrupt its implementation."  A peacekeeping force is needed to back the political process, he said, expressing hope that an all-Afghan force could be formed eventually but resignation that a multinational presence may be needed in the interim.

The special envoy is calling for a meeting of Northern Alliance and exiled representatives -- possibly in Qatar or Afghanistan, the Times reports -- to determine a structure for the transition and feed into a subsequent council of ethnic and regional groups presided over by a unifying figure such as exiled former King Zahir Shah.  That council would form a transitional administration and plan a two-year transition, and its plan would be approved by a traditional grand council convened for the occasion (Serge Schmemann, New York Times, Nov. 14).  For Brahimi's briefing to the Security Council, click here.

A senior diplomatic source in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, told Agence France-Presse that as Organization of the Islamic Conference president, Qatar is "expected to host an Afghan conference, the holding of which is recommended by the U.N." (AFP/TF1.fr, Nov. 14, UN Wire translation).

As the Security Council's meeting opened yesterday, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan told members, "A stable Afghanistan, living in peace, carrying out its international obligations and posing no threat to any of its neighbors, must be our common objective. ... To achieve it, any arrangement arrived at must reflect the will, the needs and the interests of the Afghan people and enjoy their full support" (U.N. Newservice, Nov. 13).

In a statement yesterday, Annan welcomed the fact that Afghans have been "freed from the oppressive and intolerant Taliban regime" called on opposition forces to respect international law and human rights.  He stressed the need for a quick transition to representative government and asked Brahimi to "redouble his ongoing efforts" (U.N. release, Nov. 13).

The council is slated today to consider a British-French resolution under which it would support Brahimi's efforts, call on countries to help "ensure the safety and security of areas of Afghanistan no longer under Taliban control" and endorse a "central role" for the United Nations in "supporting the efforts of the Afghan people to establish urgently" a new representative government (Evelyn Leopold, Reuters, Nov. 14).

Annan said he is sending his other Afghanistan representative, Francesc Vendrell, to take charge of U.N. operations in the country while Brahimi coordinates international efforts from abroad (Schmemann, New York Times).

Afghan Leaders, Others Eye New Government

President Burhanuddin Rabbani -- the head of Afghanistan's U.N.-recognized deposed government, of which the Northern Alliance is the military wing -- was to enter Kabul today to declare himself head of the territories now under Northern Alliance control, Rabbani's ambassador to Tajikistan, Said Ibragim Khikmat, said.  "He will lead the provinces freed from the Taliban and also head the task of freeing provinces now under the control of the Islamist militia," Khikmat said (AFP/Times of India, Nov. 14).

AFP reports that the exiled king, in a message to be broadcast today to the Afghan people, has said that he, too, will soon return.  According to AFP's translation of the text as published in La Repubblica, the king said, "Very shortly, I will return to serve my country, not as a sovereign but as a servant of Afghanistan."  A grand council, he reportedly said, will decide the country's future (AFP II/Times of India, Nov. 14).

Jumbesh-e-Milli Islami head Abdul Rashid Dostum's forces will cooperate with efforts to form a new government despite opposition to the process by some allies who say Rabbani is the legitimate president, a Dostum spokesman said yesterday (Out There News, Nov. 13).

Exiled Pashtun leader Sayed Ahmad Gailani, an ally of the exiled king and the head of the Mahaz-e-Milli-Islami movement, yesterday called on the United Nations "as quickly as possible" to "move in and lay out the organization for a transition period," adding, "If any government comes into power by force, we will only have more problems" (Dan Fesperman, Baltimore Sun, Nov. 14).

Calling for Northern Alliance restraint amid allegations its elements have committed rights abuses in the past, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Negroponte yesterday told the Security Council the international community must "support the United Nations and Ambassador Brahimi in urgent efforts to bring together as soon as possible Afghans to form an interim authority for liberated areas."

"That authority," Negroponte continued, "must be representative of and acceptable to all Afghans.  And it must be supported by all of us, and especially the countries of the region or it will not succeed.  And an international presence must be re-established as soon as possible" (U.S. State Department release, Nov. 13).

U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday issued a joint statement in Washington expressing "continued support for the people of Afghanistan in their effort to establish a government that can bring peace and stability to Afghanistan" (U.S. State Department release II, Nov. 13).

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi said yesterday at the U.N. General Assembly that the "Afghan people should decide on their country's future according to the democratic principle of 'one man, one vote'" (Islamic Republic News Agency, Nov. 14).  Interior Minister Abdol Vahed Musavi-Lari echoed Kharazi's words today, saying peace in Afghanistan depends on the establishment of a broad-based government.  "There is a need to work with the United Nations to help facilitate such political process, and in this direction, the role of Iran and Pakistan was very important and crucial" (IRNA II, Nov. 14).

British Prime Minister Tony Blair yesterday called for a U.N. presence in Afghanistan "as soon as possible" (Associated Press/ABCNews.com, Nov. 13).  Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen told the Security Council the world body should "coordinate a concerted international effort to assist the people of Afghanistan in establishing a broad-based and multiethnic government," calling also for reconstruction aid (Deaglan de Breadun, Irish Times, Nov. 14).

Pakistan Opposes Northern Alliance Kabul Entry, Wants Peacekeeping Force

Pakistani authorities are troubled by the Northern Alliance's entry into Kabul and want an international peacekeeping force in the Afghan capital, the Washington Post reports.

"With the Northern Alliance takeover of Kabul, our worst nightmare has come true," a senior Pakistani military official said.  "At least for the time being, the United States military power has handed Afghanistan to Pakistan's worst enemies in that country."

Speaking in Istanbul, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said, "It is very important that there ought to be a United Nations force ... to prevent ethnic fighting" and "the atrocities of the past."  Musharraf said Pakistan and other Muslim countries could "play a role" in such a force (Constable/Khan, Washington Post, Nov. 14).

Gailani also called for a U.N. peacekeeping force (Out There News II, Nov. 13).

Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman Wahid Supriyadi said today that Indonesian troops could participate in Afghan peacekeeping "as long as the force is under a U.N. umbrella" (Slobodan Lekic, AP/South China Morning Post, Nov. 14).

Washington, though, may not endorse a U.N. force for Kabul, U.S. officials told the Washington Times yesterday.  One senior State Department source said the United States "has never been hot on" the idea of U.N. forces in the country and that "the chief thrust" now is to set up a new government (Barber/Pisik, Washington Times, Nov. 14).

U.N. Confirms Killings of Taliban Fighters

The United Nations yesterday confirmed that Northern Alliance troops killed more than 100 Taliban soldiers who tried to hide in a Mazar-e-Sharif school and that hundreds of other people were killed during the battle for the northern Afghan city.  U.N. spokeswoman Stephanie Bunker called the Taliban soldiers "young recruits" and said they were killed Saturday, or a day after the city was taken.

World Food Program spokeswoman Christiane Berthiaume added that the city is seeing "pillaging as well as civilian kidnappings, armed men out of control and fighting in the streets" (Greg Myre, AP/Yahoo! News, Nov. 13).

During a press conference with Putin yesterday, Bush said the United States will do everything it can to induce the Northern Alliance to respect human rights (AFP/Cyberpresse.ca, Nov. 13, UN Wire translation).

For a U.N. release on yesterday's meeting of the world body's Social, Humanitarian and Cultural Committee, during which speakers discussed human rights and Afghanistan, click here.

U.S., Northern Alliance Focus on Kandahar

With Kabul and other major cities having fallen to the Northern Alliance and Jalalabad reportedly under the control of a former mujahideen group, the focus of the war is now on the southern Taliban stronghold of Kandahar, CNN.com reports.  A senior U.S. official said the city could fall soon, but CNN.com reports that Taliban support there is still strong (CNN.com, Nov. 14).

U.S. special forces are now in Kabul and in southern Afghanistan, U.S. Defense Department officials said (Matt Kelley, AP/Yahoo! News, Nov. 14).  U.K. forces are on standby for possible duty in Kabul or elsewhere, the British Defense Ministry said today (CNN.com II, Nov. 14).

A U.S. missile reportedly hit Qatari television network al-Jazeera's Kabul office, injuring no one (AP/Baltimore Sun, Nov. 14).

Taliban Territory Seen Shrinking Rapidly

With Afghans possibly revolting in some areas and the United States continuing to bomb, the Taliban now controls only about 20 percent of Afghanistan, Northern Alliance Interior Minister Yunus Qanooni said today (Michael Christie, Reuters/Yahoo! News, Nov. 14).  Taliban Supreme Leader Mohamed Omar called on his troops to "regroup, resist and fight."

"I order you to completely obey your commanders and not to go hither and thither," Omar said.  "Any person who goes hither and thither is like a slaughtered chicken which falls and dies" (Sydney Morning Herald, Nov. 14).

Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan Abdul Salam Zaeef has reportedly left Islamabad, the Pakistani capital, for Kandahar (Out There News III, Nov. 13).

Citing U.S. officials, AP reports that the Taliban retreat may produce clues to the whereabouts of suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden and members of his al-Qaeda network (John Lumpkin, AP/Yahoo! News, Nov. 14).  A Taliban diplomat said yesterday that bin Laden and Omar are safe in hiding in southern Afghanistan (Out There News IV, Nov. 13).  Reuters, though, reports that bin Laden is in danger amid reported revolts in the southern part of the country.  "The chances of him being betrayed, sold out or whatever are extremely high," Afghanistan expert Ahmed Rashid told the news agency (Andrew Marshall, Reuters, Nov. 14).

Northern Alliance Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah said bin Laden and Omar should be tried as war criminals if caught.  "Of course, they have both committed crimes against the Afghanistan people.  Many innocent civilians have been killed," Abdullah said.  "We therefore consider them as war criminals, and they must be brought to justice" (Reuters, Nov. 14).

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Threat Assessment: Nuke Attack “10 Percent Risk”

The risk of nuclear terrorism is great enough that in the next year there is “perhaps a 10 percent risk of a major nuclear event in a large city,” said Thomas Graham, former special representative for nonproliferation and disarmament during the Clinton administration. “In the next five years, [there is] perhaps a 50 percent risk,” Graham was quoted in a column by Stuart Taylor in Friday’s National Journal.

The risk comes not only from the theft and use of an actual nuclear weapon, but also from a crude nuclear device made using fissile materials, according to Graham.  That device is known as a “dirty bomb,” which uses conventional explosives to spread radioactive materials over a large area.  Such a device could kill thousands of people via radiation sickness and “make the city of Washington unlivable for thousands of years,” Graham said.

Other experts, however, disagree as to what risk nuclear terrorism poses to the United States.  “There is simply no basis for quantification” of the risk, said former Clinton National Security Council official Philip Bobbitt.   Terrorists such as suspected leader Osama bin Laden may be more likely to use other weapons of mass destruction, some experts said.  “For my money, the biggest threat of all would be a smallpox attack, which would cause unimaginable destruction,” said Daniel Benjamin, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Nuclear terrorism is “the most dangerous threat we face,” Graham said.  “We can find a way to deal with biological terror.  But if these guys acquire enough nuclear weapons and blow up four or five major cities, it wouldn’t end civilization as we know it, but it would come pretty close” (Stuart Taylor, National Journal, Nov. 10). 

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Afghanistan: Kabul Falls

With the opposition Northern Alliance reportedly in control of Kabul and making rapid gains on other fronts, Reuters reports today the United Nations is calling for a meeting of Afghan politicians within days to arrange for interim administration and begin planning for a new broad-based government to replace the fleeing Taliban.

U.N. diplomats said the meeting could take place in Geneva, Vienna or closer to Afghanistan, adding that a Muslim force with troops from countries such as Turkey, Bangladesh and Indonesia could help keep the peace for now.  The United Nations will play only a limited role, the diplomats said (Jonathan Wright, Reuters, Nov. 12).

Lakhdar Brahimi, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan's special representative for Afghanistan, said yesterday "a representative sampling" of Afghans should meet within days.  Brahimi did not rule out participation of Taliban elements in a new government.  Brahimi was to brief the Security Council today on his efforts to coordinate future peacekeeping and administration in the country.

Foreign ministers from the Six Plus Two group -- Afghanistan's neighbors plus the United States and Russia -- met yesterday at U.N. headquarters in New York, with Annan presiding and Brahimi in attendance, to discuss a new Afghan government.  After a briefing by Brahimi, the ministers issued a declaration endorsing a "multiethnic, politically balanced, freely chosen" government (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo! News, Nov. 13).

"As things are moving very fast, we need to bring the political aspects in line with the military development on the ground," Annan said after the meeting.  "We have to be nimble.  We have to be able to move quickly, and we have to be flexible, and I think we are at the stage when the nimbleness is going to come into play" (Wright, Reuters).

Russian U.N. Ambassador Sergey Lavrov said the international community wants a traditional grand council of ethnic and religious groups to decide Afghanistan's future (Lederer, AP/Yahoo! News).  Speaking from Moscow, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov cautioned against attempts by "external forces to place their people in Kabul," a move he said could lead to "a new explosion in the country" (Agence France-Presse/Irish Times, Nov. 13).

Pakistani Foreign Minister Abdus Sattar and several others were prevented from entering U.N. headquarters for the 6+2 meeting when the building was locked down following the crash of an American Airlines plane in the New York borough of Queens.  One delegate called repeated U.N. security warnings during the meeting "a good reminder" that "contributed to the spirit of unanimity" (Wright, Reuters).

With peacekeeping now an urgent priority, U.S. officials told AP a force of Muslims and non-Muslims is possible soon and that the United Nations could take control of Kabul immediately (Lederer, AP/Yahoo! News).  U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that a "coalition of the willing," led by troops from Muslim countries, could be necessary in Kabul soon (Patrick Tyler, New York Times, Nov. 13).  Pakistan's Foreign Ministry today called for a "multinational force approved by the United Nations Security Council" to take control of Kabul as a demilitarized zone (AFP/TF1.fr, Nov. 13, UN Wire translation).  "Northern Alliance forces must not occupy Kabul," a ministry spokesman said (Reuters/Yahoo! News, Nov. 13).

AP reports from Tehran that, according to "senior opposition official" Mohamed Kheirkhah, the Northern Alliance and deposed King Zahir Shah have already established a 120-member national unity council to facilitate the constitution of an interim government.  Kheirkhah said the council, made up of 60 Northern Alliance delegates and 60 representatives chosen by "various Afghan intellectuals and academics and partisans of former King Zahir Shah," will include all the country's ethnic and religious groups but not the Taliban.  "With the crimes they have committed," he said, "the Taliban should not be part of any Afghan government."  The council will set up a grand council, which will in turn set up a provisional government, "opening the way for free elections and a permanent government," Kheirkhah said (AP/Cyberpresse.ca, Nov. 12, UN Wire translation).

Sayed Ahmad Gailani, the Pashtun leader of the anti-Taliban group Mahaz-e-Milli-Islami, called today for U.N. involvement in setting up a new government, rejecting any Taliban role in the future.  Northern Alliance forces "have moved into Kabul because there was a vacuum of organization," Gailani said.  "I hoped that we could have achieved a political solution before we came to that point.  Now that they have moved in, we are requesting and hope that the United Nations, as soon as possible, as quickly as possible, moves in and starts laying out a system for a transition" (Reuters II/Yahoo! News, Nov. 13).  A senior adviser to the deposed king said today that the Northern Alliance acted "against the agreement they made with us" by entering Kabul (Reuters III/Yahoo! News, Nov. 13).

AFP reports that Afghan women are angry at being left out of the nascent political process after years of repression under the Taliban.  "Of course we're angry," Afghan Women's Network head Khorshid Noori said.  "Anyone would feel angry if they were forgotten, especially as we have fought side by side with our brothers and endured the suffering throughout so many years" (Fariba Nawa, AFP/ReliefWeb, Nov. 13).

French President Jacques Chirac endorsed a U.N. role.  "The United Nations should take charge of this job because it is the only party capable of it and of giving help quickly to the refugees," Chirac said after meetings with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (CNN.com, Nov. 12).  British Home Secretary David Blunkett called today for an interim government to be set up quickly and for food aid to be delivered quickly over newly opened routes (Reuters IV/Yahoo! News, Nov. 13).  Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said the United Nations should play an important role in a new Afghan government, which should be "widely based, represent the interests of the various groups and live in peace and harmony with other countries, especially its neighbors" (AP/South China Morning Post, Nov. 13).

Northern Alliance Makes Quick Gains

Northern Alliance soldiers are patrolling the streets of Kabul today after marching into the capital earlier in the day.  Most opposition fighters remain outside the city, according to CNN.com, following U.S. and other entreaties to the Northern Alliance in recent weeks not to take the capital.  CNN's Matthew Chance said there is no evidence that the Taliban is still in the city (CNN.com, Nov. 13).  The bodies of Taliban members litter the streets of the capital, and looting of government offices has begun, Reuters reports (Sayed Salahuddin, Reuters/Yahoo! News, Nov. 13).

The opposition is also reportedly in control of Takhar province, including the city of Taloqan (CNN.com, Nov. 13).  Anti-Taliban forces have also taken the airport in Kandahar, the Taliban's spiritual capital, and could take the city tonight or tomorrow, Reuters reports (Reuters/Miami Herald, Nov. 13).  Northern Alliance commander Karim Barahouei told Reuters today that his troops have taken all of Nimruz, a southwestern Afghan province bordering Iran (Jon Hemming, Reuters/Yahoo! News, Nov. 13).  The Northern Alliance reported yesterday that it has taken the western city of Herat (Reuters/Cyberpresse.ca, Nov. 12, UN Wire translation).

Taliban Said to be Falling Apart

Northern Alliance Interior Minister Yunus Qanooni said today that the Taliban is "disbanded and disorientated, and their war machinery has been destroyed" (AFP/Irish Times II, Nov. 13).  Mukhitdin Mekhti, a Northern Alliance official in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, reportedly told Russian Information Agency-Novosti Taliban Supreme Leader Mohamed Omar has fled to Pakistan (AFP/Times of India, Nov. 13).  The former king's aides are arranging the surrender of Taliban members who wish to defect, Shah adviser Zalmai Rassoul said (CNN.com II, Nov. 12).

The alliance between the Taliban and the al-Qaeda global terror network appears to be fissuring as well.  Following claims this weekend by Taliban guest Osama bin Laden, the al-Qaeda leader and the suspected sponsor of the Sept. 11 terror attacks, that he has access to nuclear weapons, Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan Abdul Salam Zaeef  said yesterday, "We do not allow Osama to make such statements, because they increase the pain of the Afghan people. ... This is insane on the part of Osama" (United Press International, Nov. 13).

Robinson Warns Against Rights Abuses

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Mary Robinson today expressed concern over the fate of civilians in cities captured by the Northern Alliance, which unlike the mostly Pashtun Taliban is made up mainly of ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks.  Washington and London must head off massacres and human rights violations, she said.

"When territory has changed hands in recent years in Afghanistan, there has been a terrible massacre of civilians, raping of women, a retaliatory sort of destruction by whoever comes in to take a town or city," Robinson said in New Delhi.  "A number of those who are leading the Northern Alliance have very bad records of violations of human rights, and I'm extremely concerned that they might be part of a future power structure," she added (Reuters, Nov. 13).

Northern Alliance troops have killed 600 people, mainly Pakistani and Kashmiri fighters, in Mazar-e-Sharif since taking the city this weekend, Western officials in Termez, Uzbekistan, told CNN (Alessio Vinci, CNN.com, Nov. 13).  Citing U.N. officials who stressed that the reports are unconfirmed, AP reports that the opposition's entry into the city has reportedly been followed by summary executions and abductions of civilians (AP II/Cyberpresse.ca, Nov. 12, UN Wire translation).

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Russia: Defense Policy to Reflect Terrorist Threat

Russia would factor in the threat of terrorism when developing its defense policy, Russian President Vladimir Putin told a meeting of his military commanders today.

“Terrorism threatens the entire system of strategic stability.  We should know that the aim of the terrorists is to obtain weapons of mass destruction.  Bioterrorism has already become a fact,” Putin said (Reuters/New York Times, Nov. 12).

“This calls for adjusting the priorities of defense policy,” he said, adding “this involves international military cooperation and arms trade with all countries of the anti-terrorist coalition and other countries.”

Putin’s cabinet has approved a 15-year weapons upgrade program designed to improve or replace Soviet-designed military hardware.  Putin also said on Monday that he supports increases in military pay and housing (Associated Press, Nov. 12).

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Afghanistan: Opposition Advances on Capital

Following substantial gains in other regions over the weekend facilitated by U.S.-led air strikes against Afghanistan's ruling Taliban, opposition forces are reportedly advancing on Kabul today.  One Northern Alliance commander told Reuters today that the order to march on the capital has been given and that a ground offensive was to start this afternoon (Chisholm/Russell, Reuters, Nov. 12).

The same agency reported earlier that the opposition had already engaged Taliban fighters north of Kabul (Chisholm/Russell, Reuters II, Nov. 12).  Also according to Reuters, opposition commander Amonolo Gozar today claimed that the rebels were advancing on the capital and had captured "three or four Taliban posts" (Reuters/Yahoo! News, Nov. 12).

The advance follows a call yesterday at U.N. headquarters in New York by the Six Plus Two countries -- Afghanistan's six neighbors plus the United States and Russia -- for Afghans "to rid themselves of the Taliban regime" and create a new, broad-based government "on an urgent basis."  U.S. officials have asked the Northern Alliance not to take the capital before a post-Taliban political solution is reached, and deposed Afghan King Zahir Shah's advisers have taken up the call as well.

"We would also prefer to achieve a broad political agreement between all groups before moving into Kabul," Northern Alliance Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah said yesterday, "but we do not commit ourselves to this if there is a political vacuum in Kabul" (Chisholm/Russell, Reuters).  Abdullah added that in the case of a political vacuum, the Northern Alliance would have to "consult with our Afghan partners and our international partners, mainly the U.N." (Warren Strobel, Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 12).

Northern Alliance leaders said yesterday that they planned to fight only "up to the gates" of Kabul, respecting the wish of U.S. President George W. Bush and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf that they not enter the city (John Jennings, Washington Times, Nov. 12).

The opposition this weekend reportedly captured the city of Herat, which lies on the route to the Taliban home base of Kandahar, but the Taliban today said it still controls Herat.  The Northern Alliance Friday took the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif, which straddles an important supply route and has a major airport.  Forces led by Abdul Rashid Dostum today took Kunduz, a key city for controlling supply routes to Tajikistan, according to Islamic Republic News Agency.  Qaleh-ye Now, the capital of Badghis province, has reportedly fallen to the opposition as well (Chisholm/Russell, Reuters).

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Mary Robinson, noting that killings of civilians have historically followed changes of power in Mazar-e-Sharif, yesterday called on all combatants to respect the human rights of noncombatants, in particular those belonging to minority groups.  Robinson called for an end to the "climate of impunity" in Afghanistan (U.N. release, Nov. 11).  After presiding over yesterday's 6+2 meeting, top U.N. Afghanistan envoy Lakhdar Brahimi issued a similar statement on behalf of the meeting participants.  Brahimi praised the opposition's "reported issuance of general amnesty" and called on all parties to "observe fully the principles and requirements of international humanitarian and human rights law" (U.N. release/ReliefWeb, Nov. 11).

The Washington Post  reports today that Mazar-e-Sharif residents are enjoying new freedoms since the Taliban defeat.  Schools are reopening, the local television station is going back on the air and women are praying in mosques for the first time in two years, the Post reports.  Dostum, who led the opposition offensive on the city, said he told residents in a radio message that the Northern Alliance "won't treat people like the Taliban.  We don't say that children should not go to schools and women should not work. ...  Women of Afghanistan have the same rights as women of other countries" (Doug Struck, Washington Post, Nov. 12).

U.N. Requests Cluster Bomb Information

U.N. Mine Action Program for Afghanistan Director Richard Dan Kelly called Friday for information on where the United States is dropping controversial cluster bombs on Afghanistan.  The bombs leave behind unexploded "bomblets" that sometimes explode when handled, killing civilians.  British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Wednesday that the bombs have been used on five occasions against Taliban front lines and camps belonging to suspected terrorist kingpin Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network (Agence France-Presse/ReliefWeb, Nov. 9).

Talks on Afghan Future Continue

The 6+2 group was today to continue discussing Afghanistan's political future at a meeting attended by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and U.N. officials.  Bush is sending James Dobbins, his envoy to the Afghan opposition, to Europe and Central Asia for talks this week (Michael Gordon, New York Times, Nov. 12).

Bush administration officials said yesterday that Washington and its allies are planning an international peacekeeping force to control Kabul and head off fighting between the Northern Alliance, made up mainly of ethnic Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras, and the city's mainly Pashtun residents (Strobel, Philadelphia Inquirer).  Japan's ruling parties today moved to allow the country's forces to play a full role in U.N. peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere (Reuters/MSNBC.com, Nov. 12).

The World Bank, Asian Development Bank and U.N. Development Program are planning a Nov. 27-29 Islamabad conference on rebuilding Afghanistan, generating jobs and stimulating agriculture.  Funds for reconstruction can be channeled through a trust fund once a provisional post-Taliban government is in place, according to a World Bank paper (Dawn, Nov. 11).  Meanwhile, Tokyo and Washington are organizing a New York conference on Afghan reconstruction that could start as early as next Tuesday (Daily Yomiuri, Nov. 11).

Bin Laden Appears to Claim Responsibility for Sept. 11

Bin Laden has implied he is responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, according to information that Washington and London will reportedly release this week.  In a videotape made late last month and circulated among followers, excerpts of which were published yesterday by the London Telegraph, the al-Qaeda leader reportedly calls the World Trade Center towers "legitimate targets" and says, "Yes, we kill their innocents" (Marc Champion, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 12)

In an interview published Saturday in Dawn, bin Laden claimed to have chemical and nuclear weapons, which he said he would use "as a deterrent" (Hamid Mir, Dawn, Nov. 10).

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday that the United States has been trying to find and kill bin Laden and other al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders.  "We have been trying, energetically," he said.  "But we have not been able to thus far stop them. That is to say, kill them."  Rumsfeld also deemed it "unlikely" that bin Laden has nuclear weapons (Chisholm/Russell, Reuters).

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