U.S.-Russia: Bush Administration to Propose New Strategic Cuts

The Bush administration plans to propose new goals for reducing U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear warheads, the Los Angeles Times reported today, as part of a larger understanding that would permit the United States to conduct some missile testing currently prohibited by the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (see related GSN story, today).  U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell will outline the U.S. plan today in Washington in meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 1).

The U.S. goal is for each side to reduce to between 1,750 and 2,250 strategic nuclear warheads, according to U.S. officials (Pincus/Sipress, Washington Post, Nov. 1).

U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is scheduled to fly to Moscow tomorrow to present the proposal to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, and Bush administration officials have said they hope an agreement can be signed later this month by U.S. and Russian Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin at their summit in the United States.

Internal Disputes

The U.S. proposal has been hotly contested within the Bush administration, so much so that Bush was unable to present it to Putin at their Shanghai meeting (see GSN, Oct. 22), as originally planned.

Adm. Richard Mies, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, has argued vehemently that the current U.S. nuclear arsenal is needed to assure stability and guarantee that the United States could provide a nuclear response even after suffering a nuclear attack, according to the Los Angeles Times.

“There is a tyranny in very deep numerical reductions that inhibits flexibility and induces instability in certain situations,” Mies told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee in July.

On the other hand, the Pentagon also faces “budget restraints and diverse threats to balance,” said an administration official.  “We don’t need to spend billions maintaining a nuclear arsenal if the threats are now coming from elsewhere” (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 1).

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Pakistan: Pakistani Nuclear Scientists Questioned

Pakistani officials confirmed yesterday that Pakistan has arrested three of its leading nuclear scientists for questioning.  The officials refused to confirm or deny reports that U.S. FBI and CIA agents were interrogating the scientists—rumors a Pakistani official had denied Tuesday (see GSN, Oct. 31).

Pakistani authorities have arrested Bashiru-Din Mehmood, Mirza Yusuf Baig and Abdul Majeed (see GSN, Oct. 26), all former senior scientists at Pakistan’s Atomic Energy Commission.  The men’s families told Pakistani newspapers the scientists were originally taken into custody on Oct. 23.  The Pakistani Observer reported Mehmood was released Friday and then rearrested Sunday, and reports said he had been hospitalized for chest pains (see GSN, Oct. 31).  The Observer said Mehmood’s health was precarious while at home over the weekend, and he feared for his life when officials arrested him again on Sunday (John Burns, New York Times, Nov. 1).

Did the Scientists Pass On Nuclear Secrets?

Pakistani officials have said they did not arrest the men because of concerns they might have passed nuclear secrets to Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban or to Osama bin Laden (see GSN, Oct. 29).  Pakistan was questioning the scientists about their relief work in Afghanistan, where they operated with the support of Taliban leader Mohammed Omar, the officials said. 

Some experts, however, have expressed concern the scientists provided nuclear weapons assistance to the Taliban or bin Laden’s organization and suggested such concerns were behind the arrests.  U.S. officials said there was no hard proof bin Laden had nuclear capability. 

U.S. officials have said they know bin Laden has attempted to obtain nuclear material several times, including trying to buy spent nuclear fuel rods from a Bulgarian nuclear plant (see GSN, Oct. 15) and enriched uranium from Sudan (see GSN, 19). 

The recent arrests forced authorities to ask if the scientists had provided any nuclear information to Afghanistan or bin Laden, said David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security, adding, “We think this case should be investigated much more thoroughly than I think the Pakistanis would like to.”

Who is Bashiru-Din Mehmood?

Several reports in Pakistani newspapers have said Mehmood was a key scientist involved in the development of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, although a Pakistani official previously said Mehmood was involved with nuclear reactors, not with Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program (see GSN, Oct. 31) (Bill Nichols, USA Today, Nov. 1).

The London Independent reported that Mehmood was a key scientist in Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development and called him a “zealous Islamist” who supported the Taliban (Peter Popham, London Independent, Oct. 31).

Mehmood expressed support for the Taliban in an undated article posted on the Web.  “Thus Taliban and their leader Mullah Muhammad Omar are not ordinary people in power but upholders of a movement—the movement of reconnaissance [sic] of Islam in the world.  Simple proof of this is that all anti-Islamic forces are united in opposition to them.  In the Holy Quran, Allah has told us ‘All Kufr (wrong) will unite against the Haque, the truth of Islam.’  Today world is witness of this truth,” he wrote (Mehmood, YesPakistan.com).

Musharraf Understands Importance of Nuclear Security, Powell Says

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday in Washington that he had discussed the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf.  “I’m confident that [Musharraf] understands the importance of ensuring that elements of his nuclear program are safe and secure … And he knows that if he needs any technical assistance on how to improve that security level, we’d be more than willing to help in any way we can,” Powell said (Burns, New York Times, Nov. 1).

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