U.S.-Russia: Likely to Reach Agreement on ABM and Reductions

By Kerry Boyd

Global Security Newswire

Russia and the United States are likely to reach an agreement on reductions in nuclear weapons and modification to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty when Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with U.S. President George W. Bush at Bush’s ranch in Crawford, Texas, next week, said Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Tuesday.

An agreement has become more attainable after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States because relations have warmed between the two countries, Cirincione said at a Carnegie conference on the upcoming summit.  Before the attacks, Bush’s top security priority was implementing national missile defense plans, but now the first priority is combating terrorism, he said, adding that Sept. 11 did little to change views on national missile defense but drastically changed the international relations environment. 

Unique Opportunity

Several other experts agreed that the Crawford meeting would present a historically unique opportunity to move past Cold War strategies and achieve new arms control goals.  Karl Inderfurth, senior advisor of the Nuclear Threat Reduction Campaign, said Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals are still in Cold War mode, since they have a combined total of 13,000 long-range nuclear weapons specifically designed to attack each other.  He said he hoped the presidents would use their new opportunity to move beyond the Cold War era.  (Click here to read Inderfurth’s op-ed in yesterday’s New York Times.)

Kenneth Myers, legislative assistant to U.S. Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), said it is a positive sign that the Crawford meeting is taking place despite the U.S. state of war. 

Suggestions

Bush wants to avoid formal treaties and incorporate informal agreements into a new security framework that bypasses obsolete treaties, Cirincione said, adding that Bush thinks his approach would increase security and improve relations between the two countries. 

Bush’s approach, however, could seriously backfire if U.S.-Russian relations soured, Cirincione said.  If relations worsened, U.S. congressional support for cooperative threat reduction programs could diminish.  Russia could sell missiles or countermeasures against missile defense interceptors to other countries.  Cirincione said he did not know the likelihood of any worst-case scenarios but said the United States should not take the risk of U.S.-Russian relations taking a negative turn.  (Click here to read “What If the New Strategic Framework Goes Bad?” by Joseph Cirincione and Jon Wolfsthal, published in Arms Control Today.) 

Instead, Bush should take the opportunity offered by current good relations to negotiate formal agreements, Cirincione said.  The two countries could negotiate an agreement to cut their nuclear forces down to between 1,500 and 2,000 deployed nuclear warheads (see GSN, Nov. 2) and modify the ABM Treaty to allow expanded testing, he added.

Inderfurth and Cirincione said any agreements discussed at Crawford should be transparent and verifiable (see GSN, Nov. 5).

Post-Crawford

Any agreements coming out of the meeting will cost money for both countries, Myers said, and Russia would need U.S. assistance, not only to dismantle weapons but also to store and secure fissile material removed from the weapons.  Continuing activities under the Nunn-Lugar cooperative threat reduction assistance program would be the first step, he said. 

The United States should also continue to offer assistance to upgrade physical security at nuclear sites, such as mending fences and installing secure doors, said Rose Gottemoeller of the Carnegie Endowment, although she added that the Russians have refused such U.S. assistance at several sites and suggested the presidents include that issue in their discussions at Crawford.

Swapping Debt Relief for Nonproliferation Cooperation

Policymakers also should formulate creative new tools to finance nonproliferation projects, such as offering debt relief in exchange for increased Russian cooperation in nonproliferation efforts, Myers and Gottemoeller said.  Andrew Kuchins of the Carnegie Endowment said Germany holds more Russian debt than any other country, and the United States holds a minority.  Myers said Europe currently provides little funding for nonproliferation programs in Russia, so the United States could probably convince some European states to provide an amount of debt relief for Russia in exchange for increased nonproliferation efforts. 

Representative John Spratt (D-S.C.) said he liked the idea of offering debt relief for nonproliferation and suggested the International Monetary Fund could provide some debt relief in exchange for highly enriched Russian uranium. 

Radiological Weapons

Nonproliferation efforts should include protecting radioactive material in addition to weapon-grade nuclear material, especially since the possibility of a radiological attack has recently increased (see GSN, Nov. 2), Gottemoeller said.  The United States should invest more in efforts to control such materials, she said, adding that the Nuclear Safety Program achieved many of its goals, so its budget has been diminished from its original $30 million.  The program should return to its original funding level, she said.

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U.S.-Russia: Bush Has Decided on U.S. Nuclear Reductions Proposal

U.S. President George W. Bush has chosen a level to which the United States could reduce its strategic nuclear forces, Bush said yesterday in Washington (see GSN, Nov. 5).  Bush will communicate his proposal to Russian President Vladimir Putin when he visits the United States next week.

“I have reached a decision,” Bush said, but told White House reporters “it’s best that I share with Mr. Putin the acceptable level of offensive weapons with him before I do with you.”

Bush commented, “I’ve told the American people that the United States will move to reduce our offensive weapons to a level commensurate with being able to keep the peace and, at the same time, much lower levels than have been negotiated in previous arms control agreements.”

“We don’t need an arms control agreement to convince us to reduce our nuclear weapons down substantially, and I’m going to do it” (U.S. State Department release, Nov. 7).

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India: Leaders Sign Deal to Build Russian-Designed Power Reactors

Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement Tuesday to build a nuclear power plant in southern India (see GSN, Nov. 6). The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board also has established comprehensive mechanisms to review the safety of the plant’s two Russian light water nuclear power reactors, the Press Trust of India reported yesterday.

To reduce radioactive leaks, each of the two Russian 1,000-megawatt reactors would be doubly contained with negative pressure in the space between the two containment structures. The inner structure would consist of a one-meter layer of concrete lined with eight millimeters of steel on the inside. Vents would prevent pressure buildup in the event of an accident. The reactors would have passive heat removal systems, many control rods, fast-acting shutdown systems and “state-of-the-art” instrumentation and control systems, the Press Trust reported (Press Trust of India, Nov. 7).

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Iran: Putin Denies Nuclear Weapon Support

Russian President Vladimir Putin denied charges that Russia has provided nuclear weapon technology to Iran, in an ABC News interview recorded Monday and broadcast last night.

“It is a legend that has nothing to do with reality,” Putin said.

“We are selling weapons, conventional weapons, to Iran.  We have not ever, ever sold anything to Iran out of the range of technology or information that would help Iran develop missiles or weapons of mass destruction. 

“We have some projects in atomic energy.  The United States has the same projects in its relations with North Korea,” Putin said (ABC News release, Nov. 8).

An Israeli Cabinet minister rejected Putin’s denials, however.  “The central support for the Iranian nuclear project is provided by Russia,” said Israeli Transportation Minister Ephraim Sneh, a former general (Barry Schweid, Associated Press, Nov. 7).

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Turkey: Police Arrest Uranium Peddlers

Turkish law enforcement authorities seized about one kilogram of weapons-grade uranium yesterday from two Turks who tried to sell the material to undercover agents in Istanbul, a Turkish security official told Agence France-Presse today.  The two men told police they had bought the material from a Russian man of Azeri origin several months ago.

Before making the purchase, police tested a small sample of the uranium the men were selling at a nuclear research center and learned it was weapons-grade. 

The peddlers attempted to sell the uranium for $750,000.  “They were barely aware of what they were selling.  They only knew that it was a very expensive substance and wanted to make money,” the official said (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 7).

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Pakistan: Nuclear Arsenal May be Moved to China

Pakistan may move its nuclear arsenal to China for protection against preemptive strikes by the United States, India, or Israel to prevent it from falling into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists, the London Sunday Times reported last weekend.

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is secure, Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar said last week.  U.S. officials, however, are concerned that any coup attempt against Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf might put the nuclear arsenal at risk.

Pakistani generals said they were angered by a report that U.S. military units trained to disarm nuclear weapons had looked into plans for a mission in Pakistan (see GSN, Nov. 5), according to the Sunday Times.  “Every paranoid fear they have had over the past 20 years about people coming to get our missiles is suddenly coming to the fore,” said Zia Mian, a Pakistani physicist.

U.S.-China relations were strained in the 1990s after U.S. officials discovered China had transferred components for a centrifuge used to enrich uranium to Pakistan.  Some U.S. experts said China would be the only country Pakistan might trust to guard its nuclear assets, although other analysts said many members of the Pakistani military would resist moving nuclear weapons to China, according to the Sunday Times.

U.S. sources told the Times the Bush administration was working to respond to the concern Pakistan’s nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of radicals.  “Nobody in the Bush administration wants to be held responsible if al-Qaeda gets a nuke.  They are working their asses off on this,” said George Perkovich, an Asian nuclear program expert (Sunday Times, Nov. 4).

China today dismissed reports that Pakistan was considering moving its nuclear arsenal there for safekeeping, according the Associated Press.  “I think this sort of report is totally without basis,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao (Associated Press, Nov. 6).   

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U.S. Nuclear Materials: Audit Fails to Account for All Material

An audit of U.S. nuclear research institutions revealed that “substantial amounts” of plutonium and uranium could not be accounted for in U.S. Department of Energy and Nuclear Regulatory Commission records, according to an Energy Department report released yesterday.  The records documented nuclear materials loaned to U.S. academic institutions, private companies, hospitals and other government agencies.

The report concluded there was “a weakness in controls over potentially dangerous materials,” but did not determine that the materials were lost or stolen from any facilities.  A private contractor, not named by the report, has been responsible for keeping records of the nuclear material transactions.

The discrepancies could be the result of “sloppy bookkeeping,” said one U.S. official, but the Energy Department was taking the report seriously because of concerns that terrorists could be seeking to acquire nuclear weapon or radioactive materials. The Energy Department launched its investigation into the record keeping prior to the Sept. 11 bombings.

Examples of discrepancies included a Sept. 30, 2000, contractor record showing a “significant quantity of plutonium” at a facility that the NRC said “had not held plutonium since 1996,” the report said.  The unaccounted-for material may have been washed away during the facility’s decommissioning, according to the report.

Another contractor record shows significant amounts of plutonium at a site where the NRC said “no material was at this location,” according to the report.

The lapses may spur the Energy Department’s inspector general to audit the department’s nuclear weapon laboratories, where “significantly greater numbers are involved,” said an Energy Department official (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Nov. 6).

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United States: DOE Gets More Funds for Nonproliferation

A U.S. House-Senate conference committee on Oct. 30 completed a bill allocating more than $800 million dollars to the U.S. Energy Department’s nonproliferation programs. The fiscal 2002 Energy and Water Appropriations Bill would give the programs $30 million more than President George W. Bush requested.

The bill would allocate funding to three nonproliferation programs: nonproliferation and verification research and development; international materials protection, control, and accounting; and arms control and nonproliferation. 

Nonproliferation and verification research and development would receive $244.3 million, which was close to $40 million more than the Bush administration requested, but slightly less than fiscal 2001’s allocation.  International materials protection would receive $173 million, $35 million more than the Bush administration’s request and about $3 million more than last year’s funding.  Arms control programs would receive more than $75 million, $25 million less than the Bush administration’s request and half of last year’s allocation (Council for a Livable World release, Nov. 6).  

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U.S.-India: U.S. Sells Weapons to India

The United States is resuming sales of arms to India, a move made possible by the Bush administration’s waiver of nuclear weapon-related sanctions (see GSN, Oct. 17) the Times of London reported today.

The United States imposed sanctions against supplying arms and munitions when India tested nuclear weapons in 1998. India now will receive “specific items of defense needs” from the United States, an Indian Defense Ministry source told the Times following a meeting in New Delhi yesterday between U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes (Roland Watson, London Times, Nov. 6).

At a press conference following the meeting, Rumsfeld told reporters that sanctions relating to the Defense Department were lifted and “the status of some remaining sanctions with respect to nuclear technologies … and missile technologies are something that the Department of State and the government of India undoubtedly will be discussing” (U.S. State Department release, Nov. 5).

Rumsfeld did not commit to lifting sanctions against transferring dual-use technology imposed after early nuclear tests in 1974, but he said the two countries would hold talks on the issue (Indian Economic Times, Nov. 6).

Indian and U.S. military officials plan to meet within a month to discuss ways that the two militaries can cooperate, such as reciprocal training of officers and joint military exercises, the New York Times reported (Celia Dugger, New York Times, Nov. 6).

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India: Russia Will Help India Build Nuclear Power Plant

Russia will provide technical and financial assistance to help India build a 2,000-megawatt nuclear power plant, according to an Indian government statement released over the weekend. 

The Indian Cabinet Committee for Economic Affairs approved the $2.7 billion project last weekend.  Under the plan, India would spend $1.4 billion and receive credit from Russia for the rest (Planet Ark, Nov. 5).  The nuclear plants would be protected under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards, according to Interfax (Interfax, Nov. 4). 

“The project will open a new window for the country in the high technology area of advanced light water reactor technology and wide-ranging scientific and technological cooperation … in the vital field of atomic energy,” the government statement said (Planet Ark, Nov. 5).

The Kudankulam plant, in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, will have two VVER-1000 power generating units and will be protected by International Atomic Energy Agency regulations.  The plant could become fully operational in 2008 or 2009 (Interfax, Nov. 4).

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China: ICBM to be Fired

China plans to test launch a DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missile in the first half of this month, according to a notice it gave the Russian Defense Ministry, Japan Today reported today (Japan Today, Nov. 6). Missile troops will fire the missile from a ground system at the Wuzhai space and missile center in central China (Vladislav Kuznetsov, Itar-Tass, Nov. 5).

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IAEA: Agency Calls For Increased Controls on Nuclear Material

Debating at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency the likelihood of terrorists using nuclear or radioactive materials, experts agreed Friday in Vienna that the need to protect such materials has become urgent.

"The only strategy is to protect the material where it is," said Morten Bremer Maerli of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, adding that no such program yet exists.  Maerli and other experts criticized the lack of control at nuclear facilities in several countries, especially Russia, and expressed concern about the possibility of theft.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has spent billions of dollars on nonproliferation programs in the region, but up to 60 percent of Russian nuclear material is still inadequately secured, according to Matthew Bunn of Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. "Preventing proliferation in Russia is a threat that we know how to fix, and it's a matter of writing checks," said Bunn, who has criticized the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush for cutting funding for such programs.

One speaker at the meeting quoted the late Luis Alvarez, who was a researcher with the Manhattan Project.  "Most people seem unaware that if (highly enriched uranium) is at hand, it's a trivial job to set off a nuclear explosion," Alvarez once said.  "Even a high school kid could make a bomb in short order."

The IAEA has reported 175 cases of trafficking in nuclear material since 1993, but experts could not say if that number represents the whole problem or only a small part. In the 175 cases, law enforcement agencies seized trafficked material, but records at the facilities where the material originated did not show any material missing (Peter Finn, Washington Post, Nov. 3).

Despite many experts' concerns about inadequate security at nuclear facilities in several countries, Roger Hagengruber, senior vice president for national security and arms control at the U.S. government's Sandia National Laboratories, said the United States and Russia have worked hard to safeguard their weapons.  "I just don't think Russians are missing weapons.  They care about this. ... They care about safety and security about theirs as we do about ours," he said (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Nov. 4).

Experts said countries should control various sources of radioactive material in addition to nuclear material. They said radioactive materials used in daily civilian activities, such as preservation of foodstuffs, radiotherapy and x-rays, could be used to create a "dirty" bomb -- a conventional bomb laced with radioactive material to contaminate an area.

"There are few security precautions on radiotherapy equipment, and a large source could be removed quite easily, especially if those involved had no regard for their own health," said Abel Gonzalez, IAEA director of radiation and waste safety (Sonya Yee, Christian Science Monitor, Nov. 5).

An incident of stolen radioactive material in Goiania, Brazil, in 1987 could provide a model for the impact of a dirty bomb attack.  Scrap scavengers broke into a radiological clinic, stole about one ounce of highly radioactive cesium 137 and spread about 100 pieces of the material to family and friends. "Fourteen people were overexposed to radiation out of 249 contaminated," according to the IAEA.  "Four subsequently died, and more than 110,000 had to be continuously monitored. To decontaminate the area, 125,000 drums and 1,470 boxes were filled with contaminated clothing, furniture, dirt and other materials; 85 houses had to be destroyed" (Pincus, Washington Post).

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U.S.-Russia: Defense Ministers Lay Groundwork for Summit

The United States and Russia discussed strategic nuclear reductions this weekend in Moscow during meetings between U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov.

Following their meetings, Ivanov said the two sides had discussed establishing an “absolutely clear and transparent” verification system for a new arms control regime and added that there are “good prospects here to move forward quickly” to agreement (Michael Wines, New York Times, Nov. 4).  Similar prospects were evidently not present for the sister issue of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (see related GSN story, today).

Traveling to Moscow on Friday, Rumsfeld told reporters the Pentagon had not completed its nuclear posture review, but the review had reached some conclusions, in particular, how few strategic nuclear weapons the United States could live with.  Contradicting U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice (see GSN, Nov. 2), Rumsfeld said “we do know enough from the nuclear posture review to have extracted from it enough information that we can proceed with a high degree of confidence with the Russians.”

Rumsfeld expected the review to be completed by mid-December (U.S. State Department release, Nov. 3).

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Pakistan: Nuclear Scientist Denies Giving Nuclear Secrets to Taliban

Pakistani nuclear scientist Bashiru-Din Mehmood, detained for questioning by Pakistani authorities (see GSN, Nov. 1) told investigators he has never met Osama bin Laden, suspected mastermind of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States, or given nuclear secrets to Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban, said a source has told the Wall Street Journal.  A senior military official told the Journal that investigators have found “nothing objectionable” in the scientist’s behavior (LeVine/Azhar, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 5). 

Mehmood’s arrest was triggered by U.S. intelligence reports that he had repeatedly telephoned the supreme Taliban leader after the Sept. 11 attacks, but his family said he discussed only the construction of a flour mill in Afghanistan, according to Knight Ridder News Service.

Mehmood is the head of Ummah Tameer-e-Nau, a humanitarian agency that works in Afghanistan, and is also a former top nuclear scientist (see GSN, Nov. 1).  He was a founder of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, managing the development of uranium-enrichment plants, according to Knight Ridder (Juan Tamayo, Knight Ridder/RealCities.com, Nov. 5).

“He seems to have played a very important role in the whole spectrum of the Pakistani program of plutonium production and uranium enrichment,” said David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security (Overbye/Glanz, New York Times, Nov. 2).

Mehmood is also known as a Taliban supporter and Muslim fundamentalist (see GSN, Nov. 1).  He and several friends distributed a report on Sept. 21 suggesting Jews were responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks and predicting the ultimate victory of Islamic fundamentalists (LeVine/Azhar, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 5).

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Pakistan: U.S. Offers Nuclear Safety Assistance to Pakistan

Members of the 15^th Marine Expeditionary Unit are prepared to move into Pakistan in the event of a crisis to safeguard the country’s nuclear arsenal, according to the Nov. 12 issue of Newsweek.  The marines’ public task is to evacuate Americans if the current Pakistani government collapsed (John Barry, Newsweek, Nov. 12).

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is generally safe during times of relative stability, but “fallout” from Pakistan’s cooperation with the United States in the conflict with Afghanistan could “severely test Pakistan’s security system,” said David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security. 

“Instability in Pakistan could make its nuclear weapons and stocks of nuclear explosive material dangerously vulnerable to theft.  If domestic instability leads to the downfall of the current Pakistani government, nuclear weapons and the means to make them could fall into the hands of a government hostile to the United States and its allies … Pakistan is believed to maintain tight control over its nuclear assets, and it may have instituted special steps to deal with the current situation.  Nonetheless, the U.S. government and the international community should work to improve security over Pakistan’s nuclear assets, both in the short and long term,” Albright wrote in a recent report (ISIS release, Oct. 2001).

Experts have discussed several forms of assistance to Pakistan since Sept. 11.  Some Bush administration officials have considered providing permissive action links (PALs), devices in warheads that prevent arming the warhead without authorization from several people with secret codes (Mufson, Washington Post, Nov. 4).

The United States should not provide PALs, however, according to Albright.  The devices are integrally incorporated in the design of a nuclear weapon.  He said the United States should avoid providing assistance that would improve nuclear weapons or grant U.S. access to Pakistan’s nuclear weapon sites, which the Pakistanis would be unlikely to accept. 

The United States should also avoid providing assistance prohibited under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Albright said, adding that improving security at nuclear facilities would be permissible, providing assistance to improve the safety of a nuclear warhead itself could improve the country’s ability to deploy a warhead on a missile and would be prohibited under the treaty.

“U.S. assistance should be based on the guiding principle that Pakistan will continue to store its nuclear weapons in a disassembled state,” Albright said.  U.S. assistance could include physical protection, unclassified handbooks on nuclear weapons safety, theoretical exercises, surveillance equipment, material accounting equipment and devices to improve the security of a weapon against unauthorized use as long as it is not intrinsic to the design of the weapon, Albright said.

Also, removing nuclear weapons would not solve the problem of Pakistani nuclear capability.  “A new government would inherit the facilities to make nuclear weapons.  Extensive bombing would thus be required at several nuclear sites … These types of attacks risk the release of a large amount of radiation if they are to ensure that the facility is not relatively quickly restored to operation,” Albright said, adding the United States should focus on preventing the opportunity for radical forces to gain control (ISIS release, Oct. 2001).

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