Threat Assessment:  Chechen Militants Threaten Nuclear Plant Strike

An envoy for Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov has warned of future Chechen attacks on Russian targets, possibly including Russian nuclear power plants, Reuters reported today (see GSN, related story today).

“We cannot guarantee that there will not be another group on Russian territory,” Akhmed Zakayev told Reuters.  “Terrorist acts are possible.  We cannot exclude that the next such group takes over some nuclear facility.  The results may be catastrophic, not only for Russian society and for Chechen society but for the whole of Europe.”

Russian authorities could have ended the recent Chechen takeover of a Moscow theater peacefully through negotiations rather than through a raid that resulted in the deaths of more than 100 hostages, Zakayev said (see GSN, Oct. 28).  The Chechen militants involved in the takeover had presented “concrete demands of a political nature:  to stop the violence, to pull out the Russian troops,” he said.

Next time, however, Chechen militants might bypass negotiations for a course of direct action, Zakayev said.  Russia would only have itself to blame for future attacks because it has done little to end the war in Chechnya, he said.

“What happened in Moscow was a gesture by desperate people, the result of the continuing war in Chechnya.  These are people who have been subjected to violence, humiliation, who have lost their relatives,” Zakayev said (Reuters/Planet Ark, Oct. 30).

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U.S. Response:  Public Health System Has Improved, Experts Say

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — While the United States has improved its public health capabilities to respond to a future terrorist strike in the year following the Sept. 11 attacks, it has been less successful in addressing international and sociological components of terrorism, the American Public Health Association said in a report released this fall (see GSN, Oct. 3).

Styling its report as a school report card, the association gave grades of B or higher to U.S. efforts to improve public health capabilities in several areas.  The association praised U.S. efforts to strengthen public health infrastructure by increasing funding for public health programs and developing new laboratories in which analysts can test for chemical and biological agents (see GSN, Oct. 16).

The association also concluded, however, that the United States still lacks a baseline set of performance goals with which to measure public health preparedness, and it lacks cooperation at regional levels, with readiness being lower in rural areas than in major urban centers.

The United States has increased potential access to medicines and vaccines following a terrorist attack and educated health professionals and the public about possible consequences of terrorism, according to the association (see GSN, June 7).  While medical schools have begun teaching more bioterrorism-related information, experts still disagree over how to integrate such information into curricula, the report says.

The association reported progress in addressing mental health needs of those affected by terrorism and in creating a capability to collect data on mental health-related consequences of terrorism.  U.S. officials have also better ensured protection of the environment and food and water supplies, the report says.  Thousands of facilities, however, use and store chemical agents that might pose risks to the general population in the event of a release, the association said (see GSN, Aug. 1).

The association gave a grade of C — the lowest in areas related to the U.S. public health system — to the progress made in delineating roles and responsibilities among public health agencies, law enforcement entities and first responders.  The U.S. General Accounting Office has determined that officials have so far failed to achieve any highly integrated approach to securing the country against possible threats, the association report says.  Potential response roles in the event of an attack have also been poorly defined among state and local law enforcement and emergency personnel, according to the association (see GSN, Oct. 25).

International and Sociological Factors

The association harshly criticized the apparent lack of progress in addressing sociological and international concerns.  It gave one of the lowest grades, a D, to U.S. efforts to control and eliminate weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Oct. 8).  The association criticized decisions in 2001 and 2002 to reject a protocol to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention and to withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.  It also criticized delays in destroying the U.S. chemical weapons arsenal as mandated by the Chemical Weapons Convention.

The association praised the the swift accomplishments of the war in Afghanistan, which overthrew the Taliban regime.  The United States has made less progress, however, in providing humanitarian assistance to international populations affected by terrorism and in promoting human rights, the report says.

The association gave another D grade to U.S. efforts to address poverty and social injustices that could lead to terrorism, and it gave an F grade to progress in preventing hate crimes and protecting civil liberties.  The latter grade is based, in part, on the Operation TIPS program, proposed by the U.S. Justice Department, which would recruit civilian informants for surveillance purposes, the report says.  The association also criticized the establishment of military tribunals for suspected terrorists, the classification of two U.S. citizens as “enemy combatants” and their subsequent detention on terrorism suspicions and the detention and deportations of U.S. aliens following the Sept. 11 attacks (see GSN, June 12).

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International Response:  China Agrees to Allow U.S. Inspectors at Ports

China has agreed in principle to join the U.S. Container Security Initiative, in which the United States is working to station its Customs Service inspectors at non-U.S. seaports, U.S. Customs Commissioner Robert Bonner said Friday (see GSN, Sept. 30).

“I am very pleased that the Chinese government has agreed in principle to join with the United States in the Container Security Initiative,” Bonner said in a press statement.  “This is an important step, not only for the protection of trade between the U.S. and China, but for the protection of the most critical component of the world trading system as a whole — containerized cargo.”

U.S. President George W. Bush and Chinese President Jiang Zemin announced China’s decision during their meeting Friday in Crawford, Texas, according to a Customs press release.  U.S. officials have already made arrangements to station inspectors at ports in Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Canada (U.S. Customs Service release, Sept. 25).

For further information, see:

Fact sheet on U.S. Container Security Initiative

U.S. Customs Container Security Initiative Information

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Threat Assessment I:  Despite Improvements, U.S. Still Unprepared, Report Says

Despite Bush administration efforts to improve domestic security after the Sept. 11 attacks, the U.S. infrastructure still remains vulnerable, a report released today by the Council on Foreign Relations says (see GSN, Oct. 25).

“A year after 9/11, America remains dangerously unprepared to prevent and respond to a catastrophic terrorist attack on U.S. soil,” according to the report, prepared by a commission co-chaired by former Senators Gary Hart and Warren Rudman.  “In all likelihood, the next attack will result in even greater casualties and widespread disruption to our lives and economy.”

The report outlines a number of remaining security flaws in the U.S. infrastructure, according to the Washington Post.  For example, only a small number of cargo containers entering the United States are searched, posing a risk terrorists could attempt to smuggle in a weapon of mass destruction, the report says (see GSN, Oct. 21). 

An attack on a U.S. port could also cause massive economic damage, the report says (John Mintz, Washington Post, Oct. 25).

“If an explosive device was loaded in a container and set off in a port, it would almost automatically raise concern about the integrity of the 21,000 containers that arrive in U.S. ports each day,” the report says.  “A three- to four-week closure of U.S. ports would bring the global container industry to its knees” (James Dao, New York Times, Oct. 25).

The report also found that U.S. law enforcement personnel and first responder units are unprepared to handle terrorism, according to the Post.  State and local law enforcement officials lack necessary intelligence information because they do not have access to U.S. State Department-prepared terrorist watch lists, the report says. In addition, firefighters and emergency response personnel are equipped with inadequate communications systems and lack the necessary training to respond to a WMD attack (see GSN, Oct. 3).  The U.S. National Guard is also unprepared to respond to a terrorist attack within the United States, according to the report (Mintz, Washington Post).

In an interview, Rudman decried the apparent lack of urgency in responding to the remaining gaps in U.S. homeland security.

“I don’t know what we need in this country,” he said.  “It’s not a question of if” there will be another terrorist attack against the United States, said Rudman, “It’s a question of when” (Vicki Kemper, Los Angeles Times, Oct. 25).

The White House Homeland Security Office yesterday defended its efforts in improving U.S. domestic security, saying the council’s report is out of date and does not recognize the office’s new measures.

“We’ve been actively implementing what we can, while waiting for Congress to act on the president’s homeland security proposals made in February, such as increased funding for first responders, bioterrorism and critical infrastructure protection,” said Homeland Security Office spokesman Gordon Johndroe.

The purpose of the report is not to criticize the Bush administration, but to raise awareness of security concerns, the commission’s leaders said.

“Starting from the point that nobody took any of this seriously (before Sept. 11), the Bush administration has made an adequate start,” Rudman said yesterday.  “But I think [Homeland Security Director] Tom Ridge and his staff have been so involved in process, so distracted by the security alerts and by the pending legislation, that they do have a ways to go. … Our message is, for God’s sake, do it” (Mintz, Washington Post).

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Threat Assessment II:  FBI Warns on U.S. Rail System

Terrorists could strike the nation’s railway system in a variety of ways, including an attack on rail-borne hazardous material containers, the FBI warned yesterday in a statement (see GSN, Oct. 24).

Information on the threat came from interrogations of al-Qaeda prisoners and recently discovered al-Qaeda pictures of U.S. railroad cars, engines and crossings.  Because there was no specific timeline or location available, the nation’s level of alert remained at yellow (see GSN, Sept. 24).

Terrorists could try to bring a bomb aboard, demolish a bridge, derail a train or pull a vehicle with explosives onto railroad tracks.  The White House Office of Homeland Security sought to reassure U.S. rail passengers.

“The American people should continue to travel our nation’s rails,” said Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for chief homeland security official Tom Ridge (Hall/Diamond, USA Today, Oct. 24).

The FBI also expressed concern that terrorists have planned a series of attacks on the global energy and oil industries.  A French oil tanker was attacked off the coast of Yemen earlier this month.

“Such attacks may be a part of more extensive operations against port facilities and other energy-related targets including oil facilities and nuclear power plants,” the statement said (Deborah Charles, Reuters, Oct. 25).

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