Iraq:  Baghdad Unlikely to Attack Without Provocation, Tenet Says

Barring U.S. military action, Iraq appears unlikely to launch an attack against the United States with weapons of mass destruction, CIA Director George Tenet said Monday in a letter accompanying declassified materials sent to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (see GSN, Oct. 8).

“Baghdad for now appears to be drawing a line short of conducting terrorist attacks with conventional or CBW (chemical and biological weapons) against the United States,” Tenet wrote in the letter to committee Chairman Bob Graham (D-Fla.).

The letter makes public a previously classified section of testimony given by an unnamed senior intelligence witness during an Oct. 2 closed hearing, in which the witness said that the likelihood of an unprovoked attack by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is “low.”

“My judgment would be that the probability of him initiating an attack — let me put a time frame on it — in the foreseeable future, given the conditions we understand now, the likelihood I think would be low,” the witness said in response to questioning by Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.).

If Hussein believed the United States planned to attack Iraq, however, he would probably be less constrained from launching attacks that might include chemical and biological weapons, Tenet wrote.

“Saddam might decide that the extreme step of assisting Islamist terrorists in conducting a WMD attack against the United States would be his last chance to exact vengeance by taking a large number of victims with him,” he wrote.

During the Oct. 2 closed hearing, Levin asked the witness to gauge the possibility that Iraq would use chemical or biological weapons in response to U.S. military action, according to the Tenet letter.  “Pretty high, in my view,” the witness answered.

The CIA has had “solid reporting” of senior level contacts between Iraq and al-Qaeda over the past 10 years, Tenet wrote in the letter.  The contacts have discussed safe haven arrangements and reciprocal nonaggresssion, he wrote.  Since the war on terrorism began last year, there has been evidence that al-Qaeda members have been in Iraq, including Baghdad, he wrote.

“We have credible reporting that al-Qaeda leaders sought contacts in Iraq who could help them acquire WMD capabilities,” Tenet wrote.  “The reporting also stated that Iraq has provided training to al-Qaeda members in the areas of poisons and gases and making conventional bombs” (New York Times, Oct. 8).

The comments and information in the letter do not damage the case that U.S. President George W. Bush made against Iraq in a speech Monday night, Tenet said in a statement released yesterday.

“There is no inconsistency between our view of Saddam’s growing threat and the view as expressed by the president in his speech,” Tenet said.  “Although we think the chances of Saddam initiating a WMD attack at this moment are low —in part because it would constitute an admission that he possesses WMD — there is no question that the likelihood of Saddam using WMD against the United States or our allies in the region for blackmail, deterrence, or otherwise grows as his arsenal continues to build” (Dana Priest, Washington Post, Oct. 9).

New Evidence

U.S. officials have said that Iraq has rebuilt several sites that were associated in the past with the country’s nuclear weapons program, possibly indicating increased efforts to develop a weapon, the Associated Press reported today.

New structures have been built at al-Furat centrifuge development center, the Nassr/Taji Steel Fabrication and Military Production Facility, al-Qa’im uranium ore refinery and the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center, the AP reported.  All four sites were damaged during the 1991 Gulf War and U.S. and British airstrikes conducted in 1998.

A recently released CIA report said that Iraq has attempted several times to obtain aluminum tubes for use in a uranium-enrichment centrifuge, placing special importance on al-Furat, according to the AP (see GSN, Oct. 7).  The Nassr/Taji facility contains much of the precision manufacturing equipment that would be needed in a nuclear program, a U.S. defense official said (Matt Kelley, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Oct. 9).

Inspection Rules

Meanwhile, in a letter sent yesterday to Iraqi presidential adviser Gen. Amir al-Saadi, U.N. weapons inspectors outlined the rules by which Iraq would be expected to abide during inspections (see GSN, Oct. 8).

The letter, written by Hans Blix, head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, details the agreements made by U.N. inspectors and Iraqi officials during recent meetings in Vienna (see GSN, Oct. 2).

At the Vienna meetings, Iraq agreed to grant inspectors “immediate, unconditional and unrestricted access to sites,” including those that had been classified as sensitive during past inspections, according to Reuters.  Hussein’s eight presidential palaces would still be subjected to protections outlined in a 1998 U.N. Security Council memorandum (see GSN, Oct. 2).

According to the letter, UNMOVIC and the IAEA will have the right to determine the number of inspectors that will be used at each inspection site.  Iraq will be informed of new sites once inspectors arrive at a location and will safeguard aircraft in the no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq.  Iraq must also allow inspectors to interview anyone they wish, it must not interfere with any data transmissions and it must provide inspectors with accommodations and offices, including a northern office in Mosul and a southern office in Basra (Reuters/MSNBC, Oct. 9).

Iraq has already begun preparations to conceal equipment and documents related to its WMD program, U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency official John Yurechko said during a Pentagon briefing yesterday.

“We think they’re fairly accomplished masters,” said Yurechko, a specialist in what intelligence officials call “denial and deception” techniques.

Iraqi officials have become particularly proficient in adjusting to inspection methods by, for example, disabling surveillance cameras or conducting activities outside of camera range, Yurechko said.  Iraq has begun training “large numbers” of officials in concealment techniques and has developed “alert and warning” procedures to have maximum time to remove materials before inspectors arrive at a site, he said.

“They’re improving on a daily basis,” Yurechko said (Graham/Lynch, Washington Post, Oct. 9).

Security Council

In New York, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council met for two hours yesterday to continue negotiations on a new U.N. resolution on Iraq, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Oct. 4).  The 10 other members of the council, which are each elected to two-year terms, have yet to see a draft resolution, AP reported.

“We are making progress,” a U.S. official said after the meeting.

“There is no piece of paper being put down in the council at this moment and I would suggest to you there may not be for a few days yet,” said British Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Oct. 9).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime)

U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”)

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Iraqi Sanctions Revisions

IAEA Iraq Action Team

Back to top

U.S. Response:  Pentagon Kicks Off Broad Search for Anti-WMD Technologies

By Bryan Bender
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Defense Department this month kicked off a multimillion-dollar effort to develop new technologies capable of defeating WMD facilities, predicting the outcome of a chemical, biological or nuclear attack and otherwise beefing up WMD defense efforts through a combination of new weaponry and computer analysis tools, according to defense officials and documents (see GSN, Sept. 16).

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency has published a series of documents outlining a broad new response program to the threat of weapons of mass destruction and is seeking multiple companies and other technology developers to meet a variety of mission objectives.  The agency’s Technology Development Directorate is spearheading the multifaceted effort.

“The mission of the Technology Development Directorate is to reduce national defense and homeland security WMD threats by conducting innovative research and development supporting the nation’s WMD-related counterforce, consequence assessment and defeat technologies,” according to documents published Oct. 4 intended to begin a dialogue with industry participants.

The program will focus on weapons and targeting technologies to attack WMD stocks; hazard assessment technologies to determine collateral damage and other atmospheric and effects of chemical, biological radiological, nuclear and high explosive incidents or accidents; modeling and simulation technologies; and systems engineering expertise to integrate diverse and emerging technologies.

Weapons and Targeting Technologies

In the area of new weaponry, DTRA is seeking proposals that that can defeat WMD-related facilities.  These weapons could be of different types, according to program documents:

*         thermobaric weapons that cause significant blast energy to cause large-scale failures in WMD structures;

*         weapons exploded both above and below the ground causing airblast, penetration, fragmentation, cratering and ground shock;

*         corrosive and incendiary weapons that exploit nonexplosive techniques for destroying a target;

*         portable technologies to enable U.S. troops to render harmless chemical and biological weapons; and

*         new tools for special operations forces to accomplish such missions safely.

The agency is calling on contractors to “develop a full spectrum of tactical agent defeat capabilities that will provide the warfighter with the ability to destroy chemical and/or biological agents,” according to the project description.

Consequence Assessment

While developing a series of new active measures to destroy or neutralize WMD threats, the agency is also looking for new technologies and software tools to assess the aftermath of a successful chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-explosive attack.

The agency is searching for solutions to problems associated with accurately characterizing and predicting the consequences of a WMD attack.  These include how gases are transported in the atmosphere; the physics of how weapons of mass destruction degrade, weaken or become less potent over time; the biological science whereby chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-explosive materials induce predictable symptoms that can lead to incapacitation or death; and sensors that help measure the dispersion of hazardous materials in the atmosphere, land or water.

This job falls to the agency’s Consequence Assessment branch, which is seeking to “develop methodologies and technologies necessary to empower the military and civilian authorities to assess a weapons of mass destruction event and react in a manner that reduces risks and saves lives,” according to the agency.

Other Efforts

The agency will round out its new push for anti-WMD capabilities by developing new simulation tools.

One major effort in this area will be the Hard, Deeply Buried Target Defeat Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration.  This technology demonstration is designed to provide the U.S. Strategic Command with a computer-based, fast-running analysis tool enabling weapons planners to compare and evaluate different attack options against geologically hardened targets.

For example, if military planners are ordered to attack an underground weapons complex — perhaps one hidden in a mountain — new analysis tools would be helpful to determine whether subjecting it to nuclear attack would be a more effective option than a conventional one.

“Evaluations provided by the new tool will include, but not be limited to, probability predictions of a total target defeat (defined as tunnel collapse), probability of functional defeat, the collateral effects produced by the attack, and methods/assessments of damage to the target,” according to the program documents.  “The fast running tool will incorporate, as part of its final product, more refined and higher fidelity evaluations of target response [than is] performed at … the U.S. national laboratories.”

Back to top

U.S. Testing:  Cold War-Era Tests Used Live Agents in United States, Reports Say

The U.S. Defense Department used live chemical and biological weapons agents during Cold War-era tests in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, say documents declassified for release to the U.S. Congress today (see GSN, Feb. 28).

The purpose of the tests, along with a series of exercises on naval vessels and sailors, was to examine how combat conditions would affect agents, according to the Washington Post.  Between 1962 and 1971, officials tested chemical agents such as sarin and VX in Alaska, Hawaii and Maryland, according to the documents.  Testers also used a mild biological agent during exercises in Florida, the documents say.

Although some mild agents were released into the atmosphere, none of the agents used during the tests were released into the general population, Pentagon officials said.

The Pentagon and the Veterans Affairs Department are trying to identify the 5,500 military personnel involved in the exercises because officials do not know whether the subjects knew the tests’ nature and potential impacts, the Post reported.  The personnel received whatever protection was available at the time, but that equipment was unsophisticated compared to what is available today, said William Winkenwerder, assistant defense secretary for health affairs.

“We are taking this action now because we do care about veterans and we do care about service members and their health and any potential ill health effects that might have resulted from their service to their country,” Winkenwerder said.

The United States should provide assistance to any veteran who was harmed by the tests, especially in light of plans for military action against Iraq to disarm it of weapons of mass destruction, said House Veterans Affairs Committee Chairman Christopher Smith (R-N.J.).

“At a time when our nation may be called upon to fight a war to protect Americans from chemical and biological terrorism, it is tragic to learn that four decades earlier, some of America’s soldiers and sailors were unwitting participants in tests using live chemical and biological toxins,” Smith said (Thom Shanker, New York Times, Oct. 9).

Back to top

Iraq I:  Bush Says WMD Threat Is Unique as Congress Prepares to Vote

By Bryan Bender
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — U.S. President George W. Bush, in a major speech on Iraq policy, last night put forward his rationale for immediate action to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and his arsenal, saying the country is a unique case given its continued pursuit of outlawed weapons of mass destruction, history of aggression and links to terrorist groups (see GSN, Sept. 12).

In an effort to build support for military force to disarm Iraq if diplomatic attempts by the United Nations fail, Bush said the Iraqi regime is “a threat to peace” and pledged to defeat the threat if Hussein does not agree to unfettered inspections and the verified destruction of the chemical and biological weapons and nuclear development efforts he agreed to forgo at the end of the 1991 Gulf War.

“Some ask why Iraq is different from other countries or regimes that also have terrible weapons,” he said in the Cincinnati speech.  “While there are many dangers in the world, the threat from Iraq stands alone because it gathers the most serious dangers of our age in one place.”

Unlike other regimes seeking such weapons, Bush said Iraq’s weapons are controlled by a “murderous tyrant” who has used chemical weapons in the past to kill thousands of his own people and during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

He cited the thousands of tons of chemical agents, including mustard gas, sarin nerve gas and VX nerve gas, as well as at least 30,000 liters of anthrax and other biological pathogens that Iraq previously acknowledged but remain unaccounted for. As for nuclear weapons, he said new evidence indicates that Iraq is reconstituting its efforts to build a nuclear bomb, including satellite photographs that reveal rebuilding at nuclear facilities.

“We agree that the Iraqi dictator must not be permitted to threaten America and the world with horrible poisons and gases and atomic weapons,” Bush said of recent deliberations among his top national security and intelligence advisers.

One More Chance to Disarm

Despite Bush’s indictment of the Iraqi regime, he did hold out the prospect that military force can be avoided if Hussein takes certain steps, saying military force to disarm him is not unavoidable.

These steps would include unfettered access to suspected weapons sites by U.N. inspectors — accompanied by military personnel to destroy the weapons — the ability to interview Iraq weapons personnel outside the country without the threat of retribution as well as Iraq ceasing its support for terrorism, among other steps.

Members of the U.N. Security Council are considering a resolution calling on Iraq to take the diplomatic approach to avoid a military showdown (see GSN, Oct. 3).

Despite his U.N. maneuvering, Bush is clearly not counting on Hussein to meet those demands.  “I hope this will not require military action,” he said.  “But it may.  And military conflict could be difficult.  An Iraqi regime faced with its own demise may attempt cruel and desperate measures.  If Saddam Hussein orders such measures, his generals would be well advised to refuse those orders.  If they do not refuse, they must understand that all war criminals will be pursued and punished.”

Bush’s speech came as U.S. lawmakers prepare to vote this week on a resolution authorizing the use of military force in Iraq if necessary (see GSN, Oct. 3).  Bush is expected to get overwhelming support.  Two holdouts in his own party, Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) and Representative Richard Armey (R-Texas) said yesterday that their doubts have been set to rest and they will vote for the congressional resolution.

“The time of denying, deceiving and delaying has come to an end,” Bush said.  “Saddam Hussein must disarm himself, or, for the sake of peace, we will lead a coalition to disarm him.”

Back to top

Iraq II:  U.N. Inspectors Begin Training

The United Nations began technical training for 50 of its weapons inspectors Monday in preparation for an assignment to Iraq, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 4).

The newly trained group should give the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission more than 250 personnel ready to conduct inspections.

“We will need these numbers,” chief inspector Hans Blix said.  Blix said he anticipates that the United Nations will conduct three inspections in Iraq each year (Vanessa Gera, Associated Press, Oct. 7).

Back to top

North Korea:  United States Is Arrogant and Hostile, Pyongyang Says

U.S. diplomats were “hostile” during last week’s high-level talks in Pyongyang, North Korea’s state-run news outlet said yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 7).

U.S. envoy James Kelly, who visited for three days of discussions, assumed a “high-handed and arrogant” attitude, North Korean officials said.  Kelly “made it clear that the Bush administration is pursuing not a policy of dialogue but a hard-line policy of hostility,” the Korean Central News Agency said (Korean Central News Agency, Oct. 7).

The comments contradict Kelly’s own appraisal of the talks, which he described as “frank but useful.”  Kelly said he addressed Washington’s “serious concerns” about weapons of mass destruction, conventional forces and humanitarian issues.

The North Korean comments also seem to contradict reports that the communist state is open to cutting its conventional forces and removing its military from a state of war readiness — two steps Washington is seeking — according to the Financial Times.

North Korea might be trying to create differences between Japan, South Korea and the United States by opening relations with its Asian neighbors and rejecting Washington’s overtures, according to some analysts (Andrew Ward, Financial Times, Oct. 8).

Back to top

Iraq I:  Hussein, in Switch, May Allow Palace Inspections

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein might soon allow U.N. weapons inspectors into his palaces, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 4).

Both U.N. and U.S. officials said they believe Iraq will back down and allow inspectors into Hussein’s eight presidential sites.  The United States is attempting to push the U.N. Security Council to pass a new resolution that would allow inspections at “any time and any place” (see GSN, Oct. 3).

There is still an assortment of issues to be worked out before the new resolution is complete, the Post reported (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Oct. 6).

Presidential palaces might soon be available to inspection, and Iraq is willing to work with the United Nations, according to Mohammed al-Douri, Iraq’s U.N. ambassador, speaking on a television news program.

“Certainly we can accommodate ourselves with the U.N. to have free access to presidential sites,” Aldouri said.  “We are not rejecting any resolutions of the Security Council.”

U.S. officials dismissed Iraqi statements as unconvincing.

“Whenever they’re faced with a determined front they start backpedaling,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.

In the United States, Senator Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) said yesterday that the Senate would pass a resolution giving President George W. Bush broad authority to attack Iraq.  Daschle and other senators, however, are continuing to seek to modify the proposed resolution submitted to Congress by Bush (see GSN, Oct. 3).

“It will pass, and I suspect that there will be a broad bipartisan coalition in support of it,” Daschle said (Strobel/Davis, Philadelphia Inquirer, Oct. 7).

War Crimes List

Meanwhile, the Bush administration is preparing a list of 13 Iraqi officials whom it hopes to prosecute for a variety of war crimes, the Chicago Tribune reported today.

Hussein heads the list, which also contains six of his family members, including two of his sons.  Ali Hassan Majid, is alleged to have played a large role in the use of chemical weapons that killed Iraqi Kurds in northern Iraq, is the second person on the list.

Bush plans to further attempt to sway the U.S. Congress to support an attack on Iraq when he addresses the United States on television tonight, the Tribune reported.

“The president will make the point that in great democracies like ours, wars are not the first option and are not rushed into,” an administration official said.  “But if it comes to war, it will be a just cause because Saddam Hussein’s defiance has given the world no choice” (Robin Wright, Chicago Tribune, Oct. 7).

Back to top

North Korea:  U.S. Envoy Returns From “Useful” Talks

The first U.S. envoy to visit North Korea under the Bush administration returned to Tokyo Saturday (see GSN, Oct. 4).

“I felt that our exchanges in Pyongyang were frank, as befits the seriousness of our differences, and they were useful too,” Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian affairs James Kelly said.

Kelly did not disclose the substance of the discussions.  He had planned to address U.S. concerns with North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, according to previous reports (see GSN, Oct. 3; Howard French, New York Times, Oct. 5).

Kelly met with Kim Yong Nam, North Korean’s second most powerful figure, and First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju.  No plans are in place for more talks, Kelly told reporters in Tokyo, “nor did we expect any following my visit” (Valerie Reitman, Los Angeles Times, Oct. 6).

The United States is committed to dialogue with North Korea, and Pyongyang is willing to keep relations open, Kelly said, according to Japanese Foreign Ministry officials (Reuters/Miami Herald, Oct. 6).

Meanwhile, Japan, South Korea and the United States are expected to meet for talks on North Korea during the summit meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Mexico this month.  The three allies plan to discuss Pyongyang’s weapons of mass destruction and missile programs, according to Kyodo News Service (Kyodo News Service/BBC Monitoring International Reports, Oct. 7).

Back to top

Iraq II:  Baghdad Continues WMD Development Efforts, CIA Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Since the end of U.N. weapons inspections in 1998, Iraq has sought to rebuild or further develop its weapons of mass destruction programs, according to a CIA report released Friday (see related GSN story, today).

Many intelligence analysts believe that for the past four years, Iraq has sought to rebuild its nuclear weapons program, which was heavily set back because of the 1991 Gulf War and later U.N. inspections, the report says (see GSN, Sept. 11).  Iraq has also heavily invested in its biological weapons program and worked to maintain its chemical weapons program.

Nuclear Weapons

Before the Gulf War, Iraq had developed an advanced nuclear weapons program that had some success in developing uranium enrichment techniques, according to the report.  While U.N. inspections revealed most of the Iraqi nuclear weapons program, Iraq has still withheld relevant information, such as procurement logs, experimental data and foreign assistance, the report says.  Iraq has also continued to hide information on enrichment techniques, weapons design and foreign procurement, it says.

Iraq still has a large number of nuclear scientists, documents and sufficient dual-use capabilities to support a renewed nuclear weapons program, the report says.  The increase in international trade with Iraq has also helped provide access to technology and materials, as well as foreign assistance, it says.

Iraq’s ability to produce a deployable nuclear weapon is dependant on obtaining weapon-grade material.  If Iraq is able to obtain sufficient amounts of material from foreign sources, it could have a useable weapon within a year, the report says (see GSN, Sept. 25).  If Iraq has to rely on self-developed weapon-grade material, however, it could take until the last half of this decade to produce a weapon, it says.

One area of concern regarding Iraq’s attempts to acquire weapon-grade materials is Baghdad’s efforts to obtain proscribed high-strength aluminum tubes, according to the report (see GSN, Sept. 19).  Intelligence experts have said such tubes could be used in centrifuges to enrich uranium and some intelligence specialists have said this is Iraq’s intended use, the report says.  It also says, however, that other intelligence specialists believe Iraq could intend to use the tubes in conventional weapons programs.

Biological Weapons

Iraq’s biological weapons programs have remained active and are larger and more advanced since the Gulf War, according to the CIA report. 

“The improvement or expansion of a number of nominally ‘civilian’ facilities that were directly associated with biological weapons indicates that key aspects of Iraq’s offensive BW program are active and most elements more advanced and larger than before the 1990-1991 Gulf War,” the report says. 

Iraq has maintained stockpiles of biological weapons agents, as well as the ability to deliver them with missiles, bombs, aerial sprayers and covert operations, according to the report.  Iraq has also maintained its biological weapons production capabilities, through the use of dual-use plants and mobile laboratories, it says.

A number of analysts believe that Iraq’s remaining ballistic missile arsenal and missile development efforts are intended to deliver biological weapons, the report says.  Iraq is suspected of having retained a few dozen Scud-variant ballistic missiles with ranges of 650 to 990 kilometers, as well as of developing unmanned aerial vehicles and advanced short-range and medium-range missiles, it says.

Chemical Weapons

Iraq has resumed production of chemical weapons agents such as sarin, VX and mustard gas, and probably has stockpiles of 100 to 500 metric tons of agents, according to the CIA report (see GSN, Sept. 24).  U.N. inspections, however, seriously reduced Iraq’s chemical weapons program and it is currently at a reduced state compared to what it was before the Gulf War, the report says.  Iraqi VX production and storage capabilities, however, have probably improved, it says.

The Iraqi chemical industry is capable of producing chemical weapons agents, although with the aid of external sources for some precursors, according to the report.  Baghdad is working to expand its chemical weapons production capabilities through the use of dual-use plants, it says.  The report notes chlorine and phenol plants at the Fallujah II site east of Baghdad, which have civilian uses but also could be used to develop blister and nerve agents.

“Iraq has three other chlorine plants that have much higher capacity for civilian production; these plants and Iraqi imports are more than sufficient to meet Iraq's civilian needs for water treatment,” the CIA report says.

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime)

U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”)

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Iraqi Sanctions Revisions

IAEA Iraq Action Team

Back to top

Iraq:  U.S., U.K. Press for New Resolution After Blix Briefing

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

UNITED NATIONS — The United States and the United Kingdom are using yesterday’s briefing by the chief U.N. weapons inspectors to press their case for rapid passage of a new, tougher Security Council resolution on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Oct. 2).

Hans Blix, head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), and Mohammed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, briefed the council yesterday on technical talks that they had with Iraqi officials in Vienna earlier this week.  Blix’s analysis that “there are still various loose ends that should be picked up” was cited by the U.S. and British ambassadors as proof that inspections to locate all of Iraq’s nuclear, chemical and biological weapons facilities cannot be effective under the current Security Council mandate.

“We have stated that we do not wish to deploy inspectors until practical arrangements have been talked through.  In large measure this has not been done.  Some loose ends remain which should be tied up,” Blix said, according to the talking points of his closed-door presentation to the council.  Unresolved issues include freedom for inspectors to interview Iraqis, safety in no-fly zones and access to presidential palaces.

After the briefing, U.K. Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock told reporters that all “relevant” matters are not clear, therefore “it is going to mean another resolution, a resolution that makes it unequivocally clear what the duties of Iraq are in meeting the requirements of disarmament.”

Deputy U.S. Ambassador James Cunningham said, “These terms of reference aren’t good enough to get the job done that we need to have done.  We repeated that we are seeking a further resolution with additional guidance and authority for them that will strengthen their efforts and enable them effectively to pursue the goal of disarmament.”

Another U.S. official said, “Blix was perfectly clear … there are loose ends that remain.  The access to presidential sites has not even been discussed, so the Iraqis have not agreed to full and unfettered access. … If you do not have access to presidential sites, you do not have access.”

Access to the eight presidential sites is regulated by a 1998 memorandum of understanding negotiated by the United Nations and Iraq.  The sites are not off-limits, but inspectors must give advance notice before examining them and diplomats must accompany the inspectors.  The memorandum, and therefore access to the sites, did not come up in the Vienna talks.

Later yesterday, the five permanent members of the council — the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia and China — met without coming to any firm decision on the U.S.-U.K. draft resolution.

While speaking with reporters after their briefing, Blix and ElBaradei hinted that they might back off from original plans to send inspectors to Iraq by mid-October — which rely on their existing mandate from Resolution 1284, the December 1999 resolution establishing UNMOVIC — and instead wait until the council passes a new resolution.

“We can go back there, no one denies that we have a legal basis for doing that,” Blix said.  “The question was whether one should solve every practical arrangement — we solved a good deal in Vienna — but there are matters and some loose ends that need to be resolved before we go to Baghdad.”

ElBaradei told reporters, “We need to align our dates with the deliberations of the council and I think there was an agreement in the council that both the council and us should proceed without a great deal of delay.”

Blix added, “We have not purchased the air tickets yet, but we have plans to go, yes. ... I hope we wouldn’t be delayed long, I think the council would want us to go early.  We are ready to go at the earliest practical opportunity.”

The United States and United Kingdom repeated the view that Blix should wait.  According to Cunningham, “It would be desirable to have clarity about the outcome of that debate prior to the return of inspectors, rather than having the inspectors go back under the existing situation.”

Greenstock said, “I think [Blix] wants full clarity from the council before he begins to deploy his inspectors … It would be practical and I would say politically wise for those discussions to finish so that he is 100 percent clear across the full range of his business.”

Blix and ElBaradei are meeting U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and other officials in Washington today.  Blix told reporters, “I hope to hear something of what their planning is and we’ll tell them what our planning is.”

“New Opportunity” to Verify Disarmament

According to Blix’s talking points, he told the council, “For progress on key remaining disarmament tasks, it will not be enough that Iraq open doors promptly and widely to inspectors.  More evidence is needed to erase question marks and whatever proscribed items may exist should be declared and eliminated under supervision.  There is now a new opportunity.”

In UNMOVIC terminology, there are “sensitive” and “presidential” sites, each with their own terms of reference for inspections.  Blix said the agreement on access to sensitive sites — ministries, military camps, offices of security services — “could be without prior notice and … it would be immediate.”

Blix said there had been progress in establishing procedures for the use of UNMOVIC aircraft.  However, Blix said, “Iraq was not in a position to provide full guarantees about safety in the no-fly zones.”  The two no-fly zones, which cover more than half the country, are controlled by the United States and United Kingdom.

Concerning procedures for interviewing Iraqis, Blix said that in the past there were “highly unwelcomed incidents in which the interviewed person was clearly intimidated” by Iraqi officials.  Blix wants to be able to interview people “without any official presence,” he said.  He did not get a commitment on this point from the Iraqis.

Blix told the council that many of the practical arrangements that were followed from 1991 to 1998 “remain viable and useful and can be applied.”  These arrangements include that inspectors will have diplomatic status, which means, among other things, their nationalities do not have to be revealed and communications equipment may be brought into Iraq without declarations.  Blix also said “there was a readiness to accept” field offices in the cities of Basra and Mosul.

In Vienna, Blix received four CD-ROMs from Iraq containing the backlog of monitoring declarations for sites and items that have dual-use capabilities, meaning that they have both civilian and military applications, covering June 1998 to July 2002.  Blix told the council the data “will show us changes in facilities and equipment.  We will be able to better select sites for [inspections] with this documentation.”

For further information, see:

U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission

International Atomic Energy Agency

U.N. Resolution 1284

Back to top

Iraq I:  United States Seeks More U.N. Security Council Votes

A majority of the U.N. Security Council appeared reluctant yesterday to support a U.S. draft resolution calling for “all necessary means” to force Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to allow weapons inspections (see GSN, Sept. 2).

To be adopted, the proposal would need the support of nine council members and no veto by any of the five permanent members.  So far, only the United Kingdom has supported the proposal, with Colombia indicating possible support, according to the Los Angeles Times.

“Right now, the U.S. and U.K. don’t have enough votes in favor of their proposal,” said Ginette de Matha, France’s spokeswoman at the United Nations.  “The automatic use of military force is not acceptable” (Farley/Wright, Los Angeles Times, Oct. 3).

“The baby is still in the belly,” said Cameroonian Ambassador Martin Belinga Eboutou, the council president (Bumiller/Mitchell, New York Times, Oct. 3).

A Chinese diplomat said yesterday that “cosmetic changes will not be enough” to satisfy China’s concerns over the U.S. proposal.  “The U.S. will have to decide to go on alone” or “compromise,” the diplomat said (CNN.com, Oct. 2).

Several council members appear to support an alternative French proposal, which calls for two resolutions — one on a new inspections regime and one authorizing military force in the event that Hussein still fails to comply.

U.S. diplomats have not yet introduced the U.S. resolution to the council because of the apparent lack of support.  They have said, however, that they are still pushing for its acceptance.

“We’ll work it out,” a senior U.S. State Department official said.  “We have a history of prevailing, and we intend to.”

Bush administration officials yesterday outlined a strategy to increase support for the proposal by first obtaining Russia’s support and then using it to influence France, the Los Angeles Times reported.  Russia yesterday indicated it might be easing its opposition to the U.S. proposal.

“If additional decisions are necessary for the efficient work of the inspectors, we, of course, are ready to consider them,” Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said.

U.S. officials are offering Russia economic benefits and a major role in a post-Hussein Iraq, according to Bush administration sources.  A chance for Russia to be involved in establishing a new Iraqi government would help Moscow secure a long-term relationship, according to the Times.

The United States is also negotiating a guarantee that any new Iraqi government would repay an $8 billion debt to Russia, the Times reported.  As much as 40 percent of that debt might come from purchases made since U.N. sanctions were imposed in 1991, U.S. officials said.  If so, a new Iraqi government could choose not to pay for any purchases that violated sanctions, officials said (Farley/Wright, Los Angeles Times).

Inspections Might Begin Oct. 19

Meanwhile, U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix has made preliminary plans for inspectors to return to Baghdad Oct. 19, U.N. sources said yesterday.  Blix was scheduled to meet with the Security Council today to discuss an agreement made earlier this week with Iraqi officials on renewed inspections (see GSN, Oct. 1).  Blix has also been asked to brief Bush administration officials tomorrow, U.S. officials said (Elizabeth Neuffer, Boston Globe, Oct. 3).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime)

U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”)

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Iraqi Sanctions Revisions

IAEA Iraq Action Team

Back to top

Iraq II:  Bush and House Reach Deal on Resolution

Leading lawmakers from the U.S. House of Representatives agreed yesterday on a resolution allowing President George W. Bush to order an attack on Iraq (see GSN, Oct. 2).

Bush is still expected to face considerable challenges getting the resolution through Congress as the Senate plans to debate it tomorrow.

The White House has said it wants the strong backing of Congress as it asks the U.N. Security Council for a tough resolution on weapons inspections (see related story GSN, today).

In the House resolution, Bush agreed to report to Congress within 48 hours of any attack and explain why diplomacy was no longer a viable option.  The president would also be required to report back every 60 days that military action continues and to report on plans for rebuilding Iraq.

“On his [Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s] orders, opponents have been decapitated and their heads displayed outside of their homes,” Bush said.  “The dictator is a student of Stalin, using murder as a tool of terror and control within his own Cabinet, within his own army, even within his own family.”

Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) was not among lawmakers who gathered around Bush to show support as he announced the resolution.

“I continue to believe that a final resolution should include greater emphasis on eliminating Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, a stronger statement that operations against Iraq will not undermine the ongoing international effort against al-Qaeda, and a clearer assessment of the administration’s plans for the political and economic reconstruction of a post-Saddam Iraq,” Daschle said (Bumiller, Mitchell, New York Times, Oct. 3).

The resolution cites Iraq’s “demonstrated capability and willingness to use weapons of mass destruction,” complicity with al-Qaeda, refusal to account for an American pilot missing from the 1991 Gulf War and “continuing threat to the national security of the United States” (New York Times, Oct. 3).

Back to top

Chinese Reponse:  Beijing Pledges Controls for Biological, Chemical Exports

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — China will soon issue new regulations over exports of chemical and biological items that could have dual civilian and military uses, a Chinese diplomat said Tuesday before the U.N. General Assembly’s First Committee on disarmament and international security.

Once China establishes the regulations, the country’s export control system for weapons of mass destruction will be comprehensive, Ambassador Hu Xiaodi said.  Officials have recently enacted export controls for ballistic missiles and related technologies (see GSN, Sept. 3).

“China has always been firm in its policy of not supporting, encouraging or assisting other countries to develop WMD,” Hu said.  “As a country with certain scientific technological and industrial capabilities, China is fully aware of its international nonproliferation responsibility.”

Hu also praised Cuba’s intentions to accede to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and to ratify the Treaty of Tlatelolco, which established a nuclear weapon-free zone in Latin America and the Caribbean (see GSN, Oct. 2).  China also supports the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and urges its early entry into force, Hu said. 

“It is critical for all the nuclear-weapon states to maintain the nuclear testing moratorium before the treaty enters into force,” he said.

For further information, see:

CTBT Text

States Parties to the CTBT (Federation of American Scientists)

NPT Text

States Parties to the NPT (U.N.)

Treaty of Tlatelolco Text

Back to top

North Korea:  U.S. Envoy Arrives in Pyongyang

A nine-member U.S. delegation arrived today in Pyongyang, North Korea, for the first high-level talks between the two countries since U.S. President George W. Bush took office (see GSN, Oct. 2).

James Kelly, U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said he plans to discuss North Korea’s missile proliferation and nuclear program during the three-day trip, which he described as a “working visit” (Kim Kyoung-wha, Reuters, Oct. 3).

North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju is expected to meet with Kelly (BBC, Oct. 3).

The trip comes as five U.S. senators have asked the Bush administration to make any support for North Korean nuclear power reactors contingent weapons inspectors from the United Nations gaining access to suspected nuclear sites (see GSN, Dec. 10, 2001).

In a Sept. 26 letter Senators Trent Lott (R-Miss.), Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), Robert Smith (R-N.H.) and Mike Dewine (R-Ohio) told Bush they fear that North Korea is working “clandestinely on its nuclear weapons program.”

The letter cited a National Intelligence Council report indicating that Pyongyang has produced “one, possibly two, nuclear weapons” (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, Oct. 3).

Back to top

About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines

HOME  |  CONTACT US  |  GET INVOLVED  |  SITE MAP