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Iraq I: Inspectors Visit Six Sites as CIA Completes Initial AssessmentAs the third week of U.N. weapons inspections in Iraq began, inspectors today visited six sites believed to have been connected with Iraq’s efforts to develop ballistic missiles and nuclear and biological weapons (see GSN, Dec. 11). A team of International Atomic Energy Agency experts visited the al-Nidaa Public Company in a suburb of Baghdad. Managed by the Iraq Military Industrialization Committee, the site had been destroyed by a cruise missile strike in 1993 and later reconstructed. It currently produces metal molds, according to Reuters (Alistair Lyon, Reuters/MSNBC, Dec. 12). Before the 1991 Gulf War, the site was believed to have been involved developing al-Hussein ballistic missiles, according to U.N. reports (Lamia Radi, Agence France-Presse, Dec. 12). IAEA teams also visited the Mu’tassim factory, 25 miles south of Baghdad in Jurf Sakhr, and revisited the bin Sina former uranium enrichment facility, Reuters reported. Near Suweirah, 40 miles southeast of Baghdad, a U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission team visited an abandoned factory owned by the Arab Company for Antibiotics, Iraqi officials said. In other visits, U.N. teams inspected a factory called al-Rasheed and a missile test pad near Ramadi, 75 miles northwest of Baghdad, according to Reuters (Reuters, Dec. 12). Yesterday, inspectors visited several new sites and finished work at others, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a press release. IAEA experts visited the Saddam GE site and its adjacent Amir Factory, which have been involved in Iraq’s missile development efforts, according to the agency release. While there, inspectors worked to verify activities conducted at the site since 1998 and to review the use of previously identified dual-use equipment. IAEA teams yesterday completed an inventory of remaining nuclear materials at the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center and finished inspections of a uranium-extraction plant at the al-Qaim phosphate mining facility in Ashakat. An UNMOVIC team visited a previously declared facility in al-America known as the al-Razi Research Center, which produces small amounts of diagnostic reagents for some human and animal diseases. To verify the declaration of the site’s materials and activities, the team fully inspected the site’s buildings, several of which had been built in 1999, according to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Dec. 11). Currently, more than 70 U.N. inspectors are operating in Iraq, up from an initial group of 17. The total number of inspectors in Iraq is expected to reach 100 before Christmas, according to the New York Times. So far, inspectors have taken a cautious approach in releasing information on their activities, the Times reported. They have said time is needed to determine whether Iraq has resumed any of its weapons of mass destruction programs. “We haven’t disclosed anything, but that doesn’t mean that we haven’t found any trace of evidence to suggest to our inspectors that there may be something” that indicates new Iraqi work on banned weapons, said a U.N. official with access to inspectors’ reports. “It’s just that we cannot tell you anything yet,” the official added. UNMOVIC chief Hans Blix and IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei have until Jan. 25 to provide an initial inspections report to the U.N. Security Council. That deadline will probably be the first time that information on the inspectors’ findings is made public, unless Blix and ElBaradei “feel they have something they need to say before that,” U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki said (John Burns, New York Times, Dec. 12). Declaration Is Based on Repeats, Officials Say In Washington, the CIA delivered its initial assessment of the 12,000-page Iraqi WMD document to the White House yesterday, according to the Los Angeles Times. Much of the information in the declaration appears to be repeated from past declarations, officials said. For example, the more than 2,000 pages of the declaration that comprise reports on the Iraqi nuclear weapons program appear to mostly duplicate declarations submitted to the United Nations in 1996 and 1997, officials said. The declaration’s information on Iraq’s biological and chemical programs also appears to be copies of reports that the United Nations rejected as incomplete between 1995 and 1997, they added. “The initial conclusion is there’s nothing really new,” said a U.S. official assisting in the review of the declaration. “What I’m hearing is it’s all recycled and (Iraqi claims that) it didn’t do anything wrong,” the official added. Analysts have finished translating from Arabic several sections of the declaration, including 300 pages concerning nuclear-related facilities. Those sections are undergoing a “line-by-line review to see if (Iraq) inserted something that wasn’t in previous reports,” the official said. “Nothing has emerged yet,” the official added (Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 12). U.S. Prepares Plans to Interview Scientists The Bush administration has ordered the CIA, the Pentagon and the State Department to develop a plan to remove several Iraqi scientists from the country — either through an offer of asylum or through requests akin to subpoenas — to interview them about WMD programs, White House officials said. The orders for the plan, which originated with national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, are supported by top civilian Pentagon officials who want to speed up an inspections process they fear could remain inconclusive for months or years, according to the Washington Post. A senior White House official said yesterday that the preliminary assessment of the Iraqi WMD declaration has made such interviews “essential.” The declaration is “almost the opposite of full disclosure. It’s full nondisclosure,” the official said. Under the new U.N. inspections regime, Iraq is required to identify all current and former personnel associated with its WMD programs, and to give inspectors the right to interview them. If Iraq failed to ensure that the scientists cooperated with inspectors, it could amount to a “material breach” of U.N. Resolution 1441, the Post reported. The inspectors’ new authority to interview Iraqi scientists is “the most significant authority contained in the resolution” and “the one thing that is most likely to produce overt Iraqi opposition,” the senior White House official said. Because of that, “it can’t be a voluntary program,” the official said, comparing an interview summons to a grand jury subpoena. Under this approach, if a scientist refuses to provide information, it could be considered a material breach of the resolution. Any new discoveries of WMD stockpiles made through information obtained in interviews could also be considered a material breach, the Post reported. Some in State and the CIA, however, are concerned about the speed with which an interview plan is being prepared, Bush administration officials said. Those agencies and some officials in other countries and the United Nations have said that a hastily prepared plan could endanger the lives of Iraqi scientists and their families, as well as undermine the inspections process as a whole, according to the Post. “I know they want to move quickly,” said an informed source, referring to those who favor the new plan. “But there is a tradeoff here between moving quickly ... and not putting so much pressure on Blix that you have an open rift between him and one or more members of the Security Council. ... You don’t want an open rebellion from UNMOVIC on this,” the source added. Some CIA officials that have supported giving Iraqi scientists asylum and want to work with the inspectors conducting the interviews have said that White House officials who favor a hasty interview plan have not thought about all of the potential consequences. “It’s more difficult than people believe,” said another official with knowledge of the plan. “Getting the list of names is easy, but getting folks together” in families inside Iraq, “and deciding who knows what is the real problem. The mechanics of pulling this off is still being looked at,” the official said. Planners have taken those problems and others into consideration, the senior White House official said. “I don’t think it’s complicated,” the official said. “It’s a little brutal. It’s a little rough, [but], it has always been a dangerous thing (for Iraqis) to be inside that (weapons of mass destruction) program,” the official added (DeYoung/Pincus, Washington Post, Dec. 12). For further information, see:
From December 12, 2002 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsInspectors from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have now visited dozens of sites in the round of post-Gulf War inspections that resumed Nov. 27 after a four-year lapse. The following chart summarizes some of their reported activities.
From December 12, 2002 issue.U.S. Response: National Laboratories Establish Homeland Security FocusOfficials at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California announced a major reorganization of the facility Tuesday to prepare for a role in the newly created U.S. Homeland Security Department (see GSN, Nov. 19). The laboratory’s new organization will help it better coordinate $50 million in research funds that it expects to receive from the new department in its first year, according to the Contra Costa Times. Wayne Shotts, now head of Lawrence Livermore’s nonproliferation, arms control and international security division, has been chosen to head the facility’s new Homeland Security Organization. “We are very pleased that Lawrence Livermore has organized itself to respond to this challenge,” said Parney Albright, senior director for research and development in the White House Homeland Security Office. “We expect to have a very, very powerful capability,” Albright added. Because of its research capabilities, Lawrence Livermore will house a majority of the 500 scientists expected to work for the new department, Albright said. “When these people go home at night, we want them to tell their wives and kids they work for Homeland Security,” he added (Andrea Widener, Contra Costa Times, Dec. 11). On Monday, Los Alamos National Laboratory announced the creation of its Center for Homeland Security, to be headed by 11-year laboratory veteran Thomas Meyer. Meyer most recently has worked in Washington as director of the Advanced Technologies office at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the laboratory said. “The development and staffing of our Center for Homeland Security allows the laboratory to present a cohesive, action-oriented approach to our homeland security work,” said Los Alamos Director John Browne. “The laboratory’s long history of achievements in the science, technology and analysis related to the nation’s security will be focused through this center, ensuring that government agencies needing our assistance are immediately connected with the right people,” he added. The new center will specialize in infrastructure protection, radiological and nuclear issues, chemical and biological programs and simulation technologies, according to a Los Alamos release (Los Alamos release, Dec. 9).
From December 11, 2002 issue.U.S. Response: Administration Raises Option of Nuclear Response to WMDBy Bryan Bender The National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction, drafted by the National Security Council and White House Office of Homeland Security, lays out a three-pronged strategy for countering what is described as “one of the greatest security challenges facing the United States” (see GSN, Sept. 9). The strategy calls for the development of new military and civilian capabilities to defeat WMD-armed adversaries, the strengthening of nonproliferation treaties and arms control regimes, and preparations to reduce, “to the extent possible,” the potentially catastrophic consequences of a successful WMD attack against the United States or its allies. The strong language threatening overwhelming U.S. retaliation in response to a WMD attack represents part of the Bush administration’s expanding effort to strengthen the U.S. ability to deter potential adversaries. National security officials believe that the doctrine of deterrence — convincing enemies not to attack for fear of the consequences — was eroded by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. “States hostile to the United States and to our friends and allies have demonstrated their willingness to take high risks to achieve their goals, and are aggressively pursuing WMD and their means of delivery as critical tools in this effort,” the strategy states. “As a consequence, we require new methods of deterrence.” In addition to strong military forces as a deterrent, it says, is the need for a “strong declaratory policy.” “The United States will continue to make clear that it reserves the right to respond with overwhelming force — including through resort to all of our options — to the use of WMD against the United States, our forces abroad, and friends and allies,” according to the document. Such a doctrine, however, requires an enhanced ability to determine the source of a WMD attack quickly and effectively as well as improved means of launching a counterstrike, the strategy adds. “The primary objective of a response is to disrupt an imminent attack or an attack in progress, and eliminate the threat of future attacks,” it says. “As with deterrence and prevention, an effective response requires rapid attribution and robust strike capability.” The WMD strategy affirms the Bush administration case for pre-emptive measures to prevent a WMD attack in the first place (see GSN, Dec. 5). “This requires capabilities to detect and destroy an adversary’s WMD assets before these weapons are used,” according to the strategy document. “In addition, robust active and passive defenses and mitigation measures must be in place to enable U.S. military forces and appropriate civilian agencies to accomplish their missions, and to assist friends and allies when WMD are used,” the White House document says. The six-page document, the first of its kind to be published by Washington, underscores the level of concern at the highest levels of the U.S. government about what Bush calls the “crossroads of radicalism and technology.” It calls for a “comprehensive strategy to counter this threat in all of its dimensions.” Nonproliferation treaties and other multilateral regimes — including the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, efforts to negotiate a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty, the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Biological Weapons Convention and the Missile Technology Control Regime — will remain a key pillar of U.S. anti-WMD efforts, according to the strategy. Increasing the Nunn-Lugar program to dismantle WMD materials in the former Soviet Union — “particularly through the G-8 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction” — is also considered a priority. Strengthened U.S. export controls and sanctions will also remain valuable tools, it adds. Lastly, the strategy acknowledges that ultimately all of these efforts may fail to stop a successful nuclear, chemical, biological or radiological attack. “As part of our defense, the United States must be fully prepared to respond to the consequences of WMD use on our soil, whether by hostile states or by terrorists.” It concludes, “The requirements to prevent, deter, defend against, and respond to today’s WMD threats are complex and challenging. But they are not daunting. We can and will succeed in the tasks laid out in this strategy; we have no other choice.”
From December 11, 2002 issue.Iraq I: Inspectors Visit New Sites as Analysts Comb DeclarationU.N. weapons inspectors visited several new sites today believed to be connected with Iraq’s efforts to develop nuclear and biological weapons, according to reports (see GSN, Dec. 10). Today, inspectors continued work at the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center and at the Ashakat phosphate mining facility, both believed to be connected to Iraq’s nuclear weapons program (CNN.com, Dec. 11). Inspectors also visited the bin Sina nuclear site, located in Tarmiya, about 20 miles northwest of Baghdad, and the Fateh chemical site on the outskirts of the Iraqi capital. In addition, they revisited the Amariyah Serum and Vaccine Institute at Abu Ghraib, just west of Baghdad, according to Reuters (Nadim Ladki, Reuters/MSNBC, Dec. 11). Yesterday, an International Atomic Energy Agency team worked to determine the current activities at four sites that the group visited in the al-Karama complex — bin al-Haytham, the al-Sumood factory, the al-Fatah Company and stores of the Military Industrialization Committee — and to learn more about the use of various previously known equipment, the agency said in a press release yesterday (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Dec. 10). The al-Fatah Company is believed to be connected to efforts to develop ballistic missiles, according to CNN (CNN.com, Dec. 11). Also yesterday, a team from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission visited two sites, the Saddam Center for Biotechnology and the National Project for Controlling Brucellosis and Tuberculosis, the IAEA said. Inspectors at the Saddam Center, a newly declared site, gathered information to set a baseline for future inspections. They conducted similar inspections at the Brucellosis and Tuberculosis site to reset a baseline in accordance with information that Iraq submitted in October (see GSN, Oct. 2). The UNMOVIC team also confirmed the location of a newly declared third site, in Baghdad, involved in research on communicable diseases, the IAEA said (IAEA release). U.S. Analyzes Declaration In Washington, the CIA is expected to give the White House today a preliminary analysis of the 12,000-page declaration that Iraq recently submitted to the United Nations to outline its WMD programs, Bush administration officials said. “The CIA is working on it, and the analysis will obviously take time, but the agency will prepare a preliminary assessment tomorrow and will send it to the White House,” an administration official said yesterday. It may take a “few weeks” to complete a more detailed assessment that compares the information in the declaration with U.S. intelligence, an official said. Officials distributed the U.S. copy of the declaration yesterday to CIA counterproliferation, linguistics and weapons experts, and sent some sections to weapons experts at other U.S. agencies, the Washington Times reported. “The CIA is in charge. There must be six or eight agencies involved,” a U.S. official said. The United States plans to analyze the declaration carefully to “understand what it is that Iraq is purporting to declare, as well as what they have failed to declare,” White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said (Pisik/Kralev, Washington Times, Dec. 11). The United States might be ready by the end of the week to declare that Iraq is in “material breach” of U.N. Resolution 1441 — which mandates the Iraqi declaration and U.N. inspections — because early reviews of the declaration have led U.S. officials to believe that it contains “serious deficiencies,” one senior administration official said. The U.S. response to the declaration “will be a fairly definitive readout, but not a blow-by-blow rebuttal” a senior administration official said. The official added that the U.S. response would probably be presented in a document of more than 100 pages that includes small amounts of classified information (Joel Mowbray, Washington Times, Dec. 11). Iraq yesterday criticized the United States for obtaining an early copy of the declaration, calling the U.S. move “an act of unprecedented extortion in the history of the United Nations.” In a statement released by the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, Iraq accused the United States of “possibly forging what it wants to forge” in the declaration to persuade other countries that Iraq has lied (John Burns, New York Times, Dec. 11). U.N. Translates Meanwhile, in a meeting with U.N. Security Council members yesterday, U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix said he expects to translate a working version of the Iraqi declaration by Monday and to complete a preliminary assessment by Dec. 19. Blix and several council members said they expect to distribute an edited declaration to the full council by early next week. “The bottleneck, frankly, is translation,” Blix said. “We have about 500 pages in Arabic which need to be translated,” he added (Pisik/Kralev, Washington Times). Blix told the five permanent Security Council members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — that by Friday he wants their assessments of what information should be omitted. China and Russia said they probably would not have their assessments ready in time, according to the New York Times. Blix also told the Security Council that the United Nations would not release the names of non-Iraqi companies in the declaration because they might provide valuable information, the Times reported. Those companies could report which items Iraq has tried to purchase and where, Blix said (Julia Preston, New York Times, Dec. 11). Regarding the substance of the declaration, Blix only said that it “covers the period of time practically up to the present. They have not done that before, so it is evident that there will be something new, but … as for any revisions of the past, I do not know” (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, Dec. 11). Iraqi Scientists In Baghdad, officials have yet to give U.N. inspectors a list of scientists involved in WMD programs, even though the United Nations requested the list two weeks ago, according to USA Today. “We are still waiting for the list of names,” U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki said. “Cooperation has to be judged over time. It is only the beginning of the process,” he added (Vivienne Walt, USA Today, Dec. 11). Iraqi officials have begun moving scientists to positions with no direct involvement in WMD programs to put them beyond the reach of U.N. inspectors, according to the Western officials and Iraqi defectors. “These are the people with the know-how, so the best way to hide the know-how is to hide the people,” a Western official said. “Most of those working on the nuclear program in the 1980s and early 1990s have been sent away to university or industrial positions,” said Hussein al-Shahristani, the former chief researcher for Iraq’s atomic energy agency. “Some have been sent outside Iraq, including those working on chemical and biological warfare agents,” he added. Iraqi officials have already begun telling scientists and others involved in WMD programs that their families will be in danger if they reveal sensitive information to inspectors, according to the London Sunday Telegraph. Some personnel have been sent to countries such as Libya and Syria and told to remain there while their families are kept in Iraq, the Sunday Telegraph reported (Wastell/Gilmore, London Sunday Telegraph, Dec. 8). U.S. officials have said that any attempt by Iraq to block access to scientists will be seen as a material breach of the U.N. resolution, according to the Los Angeles Times. “If anyone should show up black and blue, that would also be seen as a sign of poor Iraqi cooperation,” a senior U.S. State Department official said. The United States has proposed that inspectors summon scientists both individually and in groups of as many as 50 to multiple interviews both within and outside Iraq, White House officials said yesterday. The purpose of such a plan would be to get several scientists in each of Iraq’s WMD programs — nuclear, biological, chemical and missile — to provide information, according to the Times. The United States wants the scientists to provide enough information to convince the international community that Iraq is still hiding its WMD arsenals and programs, White House officials said. “Now that the Iraqi declaration is in, the scientists will become a hugely important tool,” said a senior State Department official. At first, it will be difficult to persuade the scientists to talk, officials said. “We’re looking for one string to pull so we can begin to unravel the whole thing,” the State official said. Most Iraqi scientists eventually would be willing to talk, said Khidir Hamza, a former scientist in Iraq’s nuclear program. “The majority of scientists don’t like the government or the thuggish family running the country, confiscating property, enriching themselves, restricting movement, threatening their families,” Hamza said. The scientists, however, are unlikely to make the first move in contacting inspectors, according to experts. “No one will volunteer due to the fear of consequences,” said Martin Indyk, who dealt with Iraqi defectors while on the National Security Council during the Clinton administration. The White House is responsive to concerns that Iraqi scientists could be seen as traitors if they cooperate, especially if U.S. intelligence is overseeing the effort, U.S. officials and former inspectors said. By working with the United Nations, however, the scientists could be seen as trying to save Iraq, they said. “Iraqi scientists are not going to go to the CIA. If they do, they’re done as Iraqis. They might as well just plan to move to Detroit and open a 7-Eleven,” a U.S. official said. “Those who believe in Iraq and want to help in a post-Saddam Iraq will want to go to the U.N. and be able to say they didn’t betray their country,” the official added (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 11). Goods Review List At the United Nations, meanwhile, the United States has called for several new additions to the U.N. Goods Review List of items that Iraq must not import without Security Council approval, including new types of antibiotics, smaller trucks and fast work boats, according to the Financial Times (see GSN, Dec. 5). The proposed changes would include antibiotics such as ciproflaxacin and doxycycline, which are used in the event of exposure to anthrax. The United States has also proposed changing the parameters under which Iraqi orders are subject to review, the Times reported. Debate over the proposals should end in about two weeks, experts said. One U.N. diplomat, however, has criticized the proposals, the Times reported. “For the first time we are presented with a proposal to put medicine on the list — which has never been under embargo,” the diplomat said. “The GRL had been presented as a generous offer which shifted the blame for the humanitarian situation from the UN to the Iraqi government. This proposal is another nail in the coffin; it will raise problems,” the diplomat added (Mark Turner, Financial Times, Dec. 11). For further information, see: U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime) U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”)
From December 11, 2002 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsInspectors from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have now visited dozens of sites in the round of post-Gulf War inspections that resumed Nov. 27 after a four-year lapse. The following chart summarizes some of their reported activities.
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