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Iraq I: United States Expected to Declare Baghdad Is Violating U.N. ResolutionsThe United States is expected to announce tomorrow that Iraq has violated the recent U.N. resolution requiring it to reveal all of its weapons of mass destruction, senior Bush administration officials said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 17). Senior U.S. State Department nonproliferation official John Wolf met yesterday with U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix to outline the flaws U.S. intelligence agencies have said they have found in Iraq’s WMD declaration, according to the New York Times. While Wolf did not provide Blix with the data used to support the U.S. evaluation of the declaration, “we gave him the thrust with some examples,” a Bush administration official said (Sanger/Preston, New York Times, Dec. 18). The White House is expected to publicly present the U.S. assessment of the declaration Friday, the day after U.N. inspectors brief the Security Council on it, according to the Washington Post. U.S. President George W. Bush might deliver the statement himself, the Post reported. The United States and U.N. inspectors agree that the declaration fails to provide a full and accurate picture of Iraq’s WMD efforts as called for under U.N. Resolution 1441, sources said (see GSN, Nov. 8; Pincus/DeYoung, Washington Post, Dec. 18). The United States has chosen to wait until at least Friday to reveal its assessment of the declaration to avoid being seen as trying to pre-empt the U.N. report, U.S. officials said. “We’re not going to get too detailed on Thursday. We’re not going to be talking so much about mustard gas and (nerve agent) VX as the fact that there were omissions in the declaration,” a U.S. official said. “It wasn’t detailed enough. It didn’t give any proof as to what was destroyed,” the official added. When the United States does present its assessment, it will only be a preliminary maneuver, officials said. “Don’t bill this as a definitive or instant grand jury indictment on Thursday,” a senior State official said. “We will base our final conclusions down the road on the Blix assessment as well as on further analysis, discussions with supplier countries (that sold Iraq items used for weapons systems), other permanent members of the Security Council and other things,” the official added (Wright/Farley, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 18). Senior U.S. national security advisers met yesterday to discuss the Iraq issue, including the issue of when Bush should declare that Iraq is in “material breach” of the resolution, according to several officials. Bush is expected to consider the question during a national security meeting set for today, officials said (Sanger/Preston, New York Times). During yesterday’s meeting, White House foreign policy officials began preparing a three-pronged strategy to launch after the United Nations presents its assessment of the declaration, Bush administration officials said. The strategy will include a public relations campaign to convince the U.S. public and other countries that Iraq has not fully revealed its WMD programs, a diplomatic campaign to build Security Council unity for further action, and planning for a new round of strengthened inspections to prove that Iraq has lied, the officials said (Wright/Farley, Los Angeles Times). As part of the toughened inspections, the United States plans to provide U.S. intelligence data to inspectors and hopes they will also be able to interview scientists who were involved with Iraqi WMD programs, officials said. The overall purpose of the strategy is to find a “smoking gun” to prove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has lied when he has said Iraq no longer possesses weapons of mass destruction, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Proving Hussein has lied, however, will be an difficult task, a State official said (Strobel/Ibarguen, Philadelphia Inquirer, Dec. 18). Security Council Even though the United States and the United Kingdom agree that the declaration is heavily flawed, Washington expects different reactions from the remaining permanent council members — China, France and Russia, said U.S. officials and U.N. diplomats. The officials and diplomats said they believe, however, that the Security Council will decide that now is not the right time for military action against Iraq, according to the Los Angeles Times. “Expect to see varying degrees of reaction — some will say partial breach, others will say complete,” said a Security Council diplomat. “The only point of full agreement is that this is not the trigger for military action,” the diplomat added (Wright/Farley, Los Angeles Times). Russian U.N. Ambassador Sergey Lavrov yesterday called on countries to refrain from making a judgment on the declaration until the inspectors have presented their report. “We are not happy that some people in Washington are trying to interpret in public the resolution in a way that is clearly prejudging what inspectors say,” Lavrov said (Turner/Williamson, Financial Times, Dec. 18). The 10 nonpermanent Security Council members were given an opportunity yesterday to receive edited copies of the Iraqi declaration. Some of the declaration’s annexes and Arabic materials might be given to the nonpermanent council members later if the Security Council agrees to do so, said U.N. spokesman Ewen Buchanan. The International Atomic Energy Agency presented copies of its report on Iraq nuclear program to the nonpermanent council members yesterday, according to the Associated Press. The edited declaration contains many deletions, including the names of foreign individuals and companies as well as some Iraqis, a Security Council diplomat said. Some of the editing, however, appears to have been done quickly, for example, leaving the names of some Swiss and West German companies in the missile section still discernible, according to the diplomat. “There seem to be a lot of gaps and omissions in this declaration but they seem to be produced by UNMOVIC [the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission], the IAEA and the five permanent members, not by Iraq,” a diplomat said (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 18). Scientists Meanwhile, as requested by inspectors Iraq has begun preparing a list of personnel who worked in its WMD programs, U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki said. “I understand they are working on it,” he said. The list is expected to include personnel ranging from top WMD program officials to scientists and engineers, Ueki said (DAWN, Dec. 18). Inspections U.N. inspectors searched at least nine suspect Iraqi sites today, according to Reuters. UNMOVIC inspectors visited a Baghdad water facility; a missile launch pad north of Baghdad; and a paint factory in southern Iraq, Iraqi officials said. UNMOVIC teams also visited a Directorate for Military Works and Clothing Stores depot and the biology department of a university in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. They revisited the al-Nassr Company for Mechanical Industries in the Taji area north of Baghdad. IAEA inspectors visited the Engineering Industries Institute and the al-Fida Company in Dora, just south of Baghdad, according to Reuters. A second IAEA team visited the Saddam Dam near Mosul (Reuters/MSNBC.com, Dec. 18). Yesterday, an UNMOVIC biological team traveled to Mosul to visit previously declared sites in the area, according to an IAEA press release. UNMOVIC missile experts visited the Oxidizer Production plant, which produces ballistic missile fuel; and the al-Almeen Factory, which produces components for the al-Fet’h and al-Abour missiles. An UNMOVIC chemical team revisited the Fallujah 2 site. IAEA experts visited the Iraqi Plant, a previously declared site, the agency release said. An additional eight UNMOVIC inspectors arrived in Baghdad yesterday, bringing the total number of inspectors to 113 — 94 from UNMOVIC and 19 from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Dec. 17). For further information, see:
From December 18, 2002 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsInspectors from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have now visited dozens of sites in the round of post-Gulf War inspections that resumed Nov. 27 after a four-year lapse. The following chart summarizes some of their reported activities.
From December 17, 2002 issue.Iraq I: Powell Criticizes WMD DeclarationU.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday criticized the accuracy of Iraq’s declaration of weapons of mass destruction programs, adding that Baghdad will have “no second chance” to correct it (see GSN, Dec. 16). “We said at the very beginning that we approached it with skepticism, and the information I have received so far is that that skepticism is well-founded,” Powell said. “There are problems with the declaration,” he added. The United States is sharing the flaws it has found in the declaration with weapons inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency and the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, as well as the other U.N. Security Council permanent members, Powell said. Officials will probably issue statements by the end of the week, he added. Inspectors will probably question Iraq about the apparent flaws, according to UNMOVIC chief Hans Blix. “We would not exclude that we would ask them questions” about gaps in the declaration, he told a recent news conference. The White House said yesterday that the declaration is Iraq’s “last chance” to publicly reveal its WMD programs. “I think it was abundantly plain, from the will of the United Nations, this was Iraq’s last chance to inform the world in an accurate, complete and full way what weapons of mass destruction they possessed,” White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said. Iraq has had 16 chances to reveal its WMD arsenals and programs, and should not be given any more, Fleischer said. “That was plain to all going into this one last final-chance process,” he added (Farley/Wright, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 17). Meanwhile, the remaining 10 nonpermanent Security Council members are expected to receive edited copies of the Iraqi WMD declaration today, according to BBC News. The four other permanent members — China, France, Russia and the United Kingdom — have been analyzing copies of the full declaration. Russia said today it would wait until being briefed by inspectors before making any judgment on Iraq’s compliance with U.N. resolutions. “It is not for Russia or for anybody else to make any judgments until we hear from UNMOVIC and the IAEA,” Russian U.N. Ambassador Sergey Lavrov said. Blix and IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei are scheduled to brief the Security Council on the declaration Thursday (BBC News, Dec. 17). Iraqi Scientists Amid debate on whether inspectors should interview scientists that have been involved in Iraqi WMD programs, a former Iraqi military worker suggested yesterday that there are risks involved in removing scientists from Iraq for such interviews. “Even if you take out their wives and kids, they have other relatives in Iraq — brothers, cousins, mothers, fathers. [Iraqi President] Saddam [Hussein] can have them all killed,” the former military worker, who used the name Ahmed for safety reasons, told the Washington Post. “You would have to be able to provide the scientist and everyone else full security. They would have to believe that Saddam could not get his hands on them,” he added. The scientists may also be a poor source of information, Ahmed said, adding that most of the programs are controlled by Iraq’s security service. “The scientists may not have anything to say. There is no new science in Iraq. The programs, if any, are in the hands of security people,” Ahmed said. “Take me. I could say what I worked on, but I could not tell you the state of any program that went on after I stopped working. Only a few people have that kind of information, and they are well-hidden,” he added (Daniel Williams, Washington Post, Dec. 17). IAEA The IAEA’s Clean Laboratory Unit yesterday received eight samples collected in Iraq, and the laboratory expects another 20 samples by the end of the week, agency spokesman Mark Gwozdecky said. Technicians plan to analyze the samples for unusual signs of radioactivity, according to the Associated Press. Initial analysis is expected to take up to three weeks before the results are sent to the IAEA headquarters for confirmation, Gwozdecky said. The samples are unlikely to reveal any evidence into Iraq’s efforts to develop nuclear or radiological weapons, said David Kay, a former chief U.N. nuclear inspector. “No one really expects the first round of samples to show anything,” Kay said. “The Iraqis have gotten much better at hiding than they were in the old days,” he added (William Kole, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 16). Inspections U.N. inspectors today visited several laboratories in Baghdad University’s medical and biotechnology departments, according to the Associated Press (Nadia Abou El-Magd, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 17). IAEA experts traveled to the northern Iraqi city of Mosul today, Iraqi officials said. Additional agency experts visited Radwan, about 10 miles west of Baghdad, according to Reuters. An UNMOVIC team also traveled to Mosul to visit a pharmaceutical factory there, Reuters reported. UNMOVIC chemical experts visited Dijla, northeast of Baghdad, and a UNMVOIC missile team inspected the al-Sawari company, owned by the Iraqi Industry Ministry, at Taji, on the northern outskirts of Baghdad (Reuters/MSNBC.com, Dec. 17). Yesterday, UNMOVIC teams visited the Saad General Co., in central Baghdad; the Taji Fiberglass production plant, part of the Thaat al-Sawary plant; the al-Nassir al-Atheen State Company; and they revisited the al-Amiryah Serum and Vaccine Institute, according to an IAEA press release. An IAEA team yesterday inspected the Iskanderya Foundry, part of the al-Hatten State Company and the Iskanderya State Enterprises for Mechanical Industries. A second IAEA team visited the Mussayib Army Munitions Depot, the al-Motaseem Factory and the al-Hatteen Establishment’s testing range (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Dec. 16). For further information, see:
From December 17, 2002 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsInspectors from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have now visited dozens of sites in the round of post-Gulf War inspections that resumed Nov. 27 after a four-year lapse. The following chart summarizes some of their reported activities.
From December 16, 2002 issue.Iraq I: United Nations Calls for More Analysis on Interviewing ScientistsFurther analysis is needed before conducting interviews with Iraqi scientists outside Iraq, the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 13). U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix sent a letter to Iraqi presidential adviser Amir al-Saadi Thursday requesting a list of Iraqi WMD scientists by the end of the month, according to the Financial Times. Blix’s demand, however, did “not mean the issue of dragging people outside of Iraq has been resolved,” an UNMOVIC official said. The request should not be seen as supporting interviews in situations that might push defections, the commission said. Blix has already indicated that weapons inspectors will not kidnap scientists or encourage defections, the Times reported. There are still concerns, however, about how to interview scientists who might volunteer to give incriminating evidence to inspectors, the UNMOVIC official said. “Mr. Blix has never said ‘No, I will not do it,’ but he has been consistent in saying he sees problems,” the official said. “What if they intercept the car on the way to the airport? Where are we going to put them — at the bottom of the U.N. garden? We are looking at our options,” the official added. U.N. Security Council members also agreed that more analysis is needed. Council members “have made it clear there are all sorts of problems with using this course,” a council diplomat said (Mark Turner, Financial Times, Dec. 16). It is unknown whether Iraqi scientists would defect or how many would choose to do so if they had the chance, according to the New York Times. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has maintained loyalty through a combination of rewards and threats, the Times reported. For example, Jaffar Dhia Jaffar served time in a Baghdad prison before agreeing to lead Iraq’s nuclear program. If their safety could be guaranteed, however, then some of the scientists would attempt to defect, according to former U.N. inspectors and an Iraqi scientist who defected in 1994. “In my opinion, 80 to 90 percent will defect,” said Khidhir Hamza, a former Iraqi nuclear scientist who fled Iraq in 1994. “Think about it: If you’re an Iraqi scientist getting by on a few dollars a month and you have a chance to live in freedom with your family for the rest of your life — why wouldn’t you cooperate?” he added. Some weapons experts have said the scientists should be encouraged to defect to deny Hussein their vast knowledge even if they provide no helpful information to inspectors. “Even if they tell you nothing, at least they are no longer building weapons,” said David Albright, a former weapons inspector and president of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, Dec. 15). Declaration U.S. intelligence agencies, meanwhile, have begun “whittling down” discrepancies and flaws in the Iraqi WMD declaration to determine the top half-dozen that might serve as the basis for intense inspections next year, according to U.S. officials. The White House wants to identify a few “clear winners” that will enable inspectors to find hidden WMD caches, to find evidence that Iraq still possesses such weapons or to cause a confrontation with Hussein, the officials said. “This is the trickiest stage. We won’t have many chances to screw up. Otherwise, we’ll lose the initiative,” an official said. Speed will be an important factor in the next round of inspections, officials said. The United States plans to urge inspectors to work in a more decisive manner, they said. To deny any chances to block inspections, the United States wants the inspectors to work next to rapid-response teams, the officials said. “When everything is in place, then they’ll move quickly and in a concerted fashion,” a Bush administration official said. “It’s like trying to find cockroaches in your kitchen at midnight. Once you turn on the light, you have less than three minutes to get them. It’s the same principle with Iraq,” the official said (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 15). Inspections In Iraq, U.N. inspectors visited at least five sites today, including two previously visited sites. For the third day in a row, inspectors visited al-Qaqaa, which is linked to Iraq’s nuclear weapons program, and the al-Hatteen complex, which contains several factories. Inspectors also visited an electronics and heavy machinery factory in Baghdad, the Biotechnologies Institute at Baghdad University, and a small boat factory 20 miles north of Baghdad (Nadia Abou El-Magd, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 16). An additional 15 inspectors arrived in Baghdad yesterday, for a total of 105, U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki said. Also yesterday, inspectors visited nine sites (Ruters/MSNBC.com, Dec. 15). On Saturday, teams inspected 14 Iraqi sites (see related GSN story, today; CNN.com, Dec. 15). For further information, see:
From December 16, 2002 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsInspectors from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have now visited dozens of sites in the round of post-Gulf War inspections that resumed Nov. 27 after a four-year lapse. The following chart summarizes some of their reported activities.
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