China:  U.S. Will Not Lift Sanctions on Firms, No Arms Control Agreement

By Kerry Boyd
Global Security Newswire

Two sticking points have prevented the United States and China from agreeing to measures to ease U.S. concerns about Chinese proliferation of missile and WMD technologies, U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 21).  As U.S. and Chinese Presidents George W. Bush and Jiang Zemin met in Beijing this week, they were unable to reach an agreement on weapons proliferation.

“Well, the talks have been going better.  We’re getting closer to an understanding of how the Chinese intend to approach some of the issues.  But there isn’t an agreement,” Rice said, according to a U.S. State Department transcript.

U.S. officials are “not prepared” to meet Chinese requests to lift sanctions against certain Chinese companies accused of transferring missile and WMD technology to other countries, Rice said.

The United States imposed sanctions on several Chinese firms that have sold technology in violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime, Rice said.  China does not officially belong to the agreement but it has promised to abide by it unofficially (see GSN, Jan. 24).

One condition that the United States insists on is that China create and implement an export control law “that will really constrain what Chinese firms do,” Rice said.

The other major U.S. demand is that China stop “grandfathering” contracts, Rice said.  China has said it will not sign new contracts involving technologies for missiles and weapons of mass destruction, but Chinese officials have insisted on following through with contracts signed prior to nonproliferation agreements.  The United States has said that, under the agreements, China should halt all transfers.

“We continue to believe that these contracts should not be grandfathered.  So that’s a sticking point,” Rice said.  Since the two sides have not agreed to compromise on these issues, “we’ve got work to do still,” Rice said.

Chinese Leaders to Visit U.S.

Officials have many details left to plan before Jiang visits the United States, Rice said.  No specific decisions have been made regarding where Jiang will visit, she said.

Chinese Vice President Hu Jinaoto, who many believe is Jiang’s future successor, also plans to visit U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney in the United States.  China believes U.S.-China links at different government levels are important, and Hu’s visit is in the spirit of increasing good relations between the two countries, Rice said.

The United States does not intend to get involved with internal Chinese politics, such as speculation that Hu will succeed Jiang, Rice said.

“We are not making any statement, nor do we feel that we have anything to say about what happens in Chinese politics or in Chinese succession politics.  It would be foolhardy for the United States to try to play that game,” she said.

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Bulgaria:  U.S. Offers $7 Million to Scrap Missiles

The United States will offer Bulgaria $7 million in compensation for destroying its stockpile of Soviet-era ballistic missiles, the Sofia, Bulgaria, newspaper Trud reported Wednesday (see GSN, Jan. 18).

A U.S. State Department delegation, headed by Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation John Wolf, arrived in Bulgaria last week.  The delegation met with the Bulgarian military to discuss the planned disposal of the missiles (Angel Ivanov, Sofia Trud, Feb. 20 in FBIS-EEU, Feb. 20).

Bulgarian Defense Minister Nikolai Svinarov Wednesday said that during the U.S. delegation’s visit officials agreed on the number of missiles to be scrapped.  Bulgaria is planning to scrap its stockpile of SS-23, Scud and R-65 missiles, Svinarov said.

Bulgaria and the United States discussed replacing equipment and armaments, which does not mean new missiles would be built, Svinarov said.  He added that the United States would pay for the disposal effort, which would be carried out by Bulgarian companies.

The United States assured Bulgaria that the missile-scrapping program will be completed by the deadlines set by the Bulgarian parliament last year, Svinarov said (Sofia BTA, Feb. 20 in FBIS-EEU, Feb. 20).

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North Korea:  Missile Program Is Cash Cow, Experts Say

North Korea sees its ballistic missile program as a major source of goods for export, a bargaining chip with the United States and an essential survival tool, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Feb. 20).

North Korea has continued to export whole missiles, missile components and expertise since the Sept. 11 attacks, the AP reported.  The country’s main missile clients include Iran, Libya, Syria and Egypt, the CIA has said (see GSN, Feb. 7).

“Profits from these sales help Pyongyang to support its missile — and probably other WMD — development programs, and in turn generate new products to offer to its customers,” CIA Director George Tenet said earlier this month.

North Korea attempts to “manufacture leverage” with its ballistic missile program, said Scott Snyder, head of the Asia Foundation office in Seoul.

In 2000, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il said he would stop developing missiles if the United States would agree to launch North Korean satellites.  Kim also said North Korea would stop exporting ballistic missiles, but only if the United States provides compensation, which U.S. officials have refused (Associated Press/New York Times, Feb. 21).

Over the past 20 years, North Korea has sold 250 missiles worth $580 million, according to the Seoul JoongAng Ilbo newspaper.  The exports have primarily gone to Middle Eastern nations, including Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Libya (Brent Choi, JoongAng Ilbo, Feb. 19)

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Threat Assessment:  Intelligence Assessments Flawed, Expert Says

Defective intelligence estimates underlie U.S. plans to withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and to develop a national missile defense system, a proliferation expert said yesterday.  In January, the CIA released an updated assessment of the ballistic missile threat faced by the United States (see GSN, Jan. 14).

“The ballistic missile threat is confined, limited and changing relatively slowly,” said Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston.

Changes to U.S. intelligence assessments have nothing to do with new developments by rogue states and instead reflect a change in the criteria used to identify threats, Cirincione said.

For example, the CIA has expanded the definition of defensible U.S. territory to include Alaska and Hawaii, instead of limiting it to the continental United States.  The change to this definition appears to increase the potential threat from North Korea, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (see GSN, Feb. 7).  U.S. intelligence agencies have also begun considering failed short- and medium-range ballistic missile tests to be as threatening as if the missiles were operational, the Journal-Constitution reported.

“Rather than representing some new dramatic development in the ballistic missile threat, the new intelligence estimate represents a lowering of the threshold for judging it,” Cirincione said (Mike Toner, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Feb. 19).

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Pakistan:  Shaheen-II Missile Ready for Test-Fire

Pakistan is ready to test-fire a new long-range ballistic missile, the Shaheen-II, United Press International reported Sunday (see GSN, Jan. 29).

A report sent to the Pakistani government seeking approval to test-fire the missile said the Shaheen-II is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and has a range of more than 1,500 miles.  With its solid-fuel engine, the missile can reach a target in 12 minutes and can carry one ton of explosives, the Pakistani newspaper Jang reported, quoting the government report.

“If fired from the Pakistani border, it can reach any target in India,” the report said.

“Pakistan’s missile technology is more accurate and advanced than India’s,” said Samar Mubarikmand, who heads the Shaheen-II project (see GSN, Jan. 31).  “And this fact has been recognized by international experts” (United Press International, Feb. 17).

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