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This weeks Missile Defense stories for Wednesday, March 6, 2002.
United States: Missile Defense Software Might Be Flawed, GAO SaysBy Kerry Boyd According to the report from the General Accounting Office, Boeing subcontractor TRW developed software that would allow the missile interceptor kill vehicles to analyze data from Boeing sensors to distinguish between enemy warheads and decoys during flight. In 1997, the National Missile Defense Joint Program Office tested Boeing’s kill vehicle sensor. Boeing and TRW reported that the test had been mostly successful, although the sensor had often detected false targets. In a later report in 1997, the contractors said that the sensor had several problems, including a low probability of detection and inconsistent calibration. The companies reported two more problems in 1998. According to the GAO, the companies had reported the results and equipment limitations after the test, but they used qualitative terms such as “excellent,” which could have created confusion. The U.S. Investigates Claims of Fraud In 1996, TRW engineer Nira Schwartz reported to TRW that certain technology the company planned to add to its kill vehicle software was unable to properly distinguish between warheads and decoys. TRW fired Schwartz, who then sued TRW and said the company falsely claimed the technology met the Defense Department’s technical requirements. The Justice Department then hired Nichols Research Corp. to evaluate TRW’s technology and reports, but concerns arose over the corporation’s objectivity, so the department also hired Phase One Engineering Team. The second group reported that TRW’s software had weaknesses but was well designed. The team said the software would perform successfully in future tests as long as no unexpected factors occurred during tests. Simple Tests With Few Decoys The GAO, however, said that the team did not definitively prove that TRW’s software successfully distinguishes between decoys and warheads, because the team did not process the data from the 1997 flight test or develop its own data. In an independent evaluation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Theodore Postol said that the contractors tampered with the flight test data to hide the inadequacies of the sensor. The Phase One Engineering Team and Nichols Research Corporation said that “TRW’s software used prior knowledge of warhead and decoy differences, to the maximum extent available, to discriminate one object from the other and cautioned such knowledge may not always be available in the real world,” the GAO report said. Officials for the National Missile Defense program had decided to use only one decoy in early tests because an independent panel — the Welch Panel — said tests to hit and destroy missiles are difficult and should not be complicated with many decoys at first, the GAO report said.
U.S. Plans II: Orbital Sciences Wins Booster ContractBoeing has awarded Orbital Sciences Corp. a $425 million contract to develop a booster rocket as part of the U.S. ground-based missile defense program, Bloomberg News reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 27). The U.S. Congress will soon be notified that Boeing awarded Orbital the four-year contract, according to sources familiar with the situation (see GSN, Oct. 5, 2001). Orbital could then be awarded a $550 million contract for 50 booster rockets through 2010, Bloomberg News reported. Experts said they were impressed Orbital was able to beat Lockheed Martin for the contract, which reduces the dependency on a single Boeing booster rocket design (see GSN, Dec. 14, 2001). “They beat out Lockheed, which is no mean feat,” said Paul Nisbet, an analyst with JSA Research Inc. “Lockheed’s very well-versed in the booster area with the Titan and Atlas vehicles.” Boeing still plans to hire Lockheed to run and improve the existing booster rocket program, said the sources close to the situation (Cappacio/Robison, Bloomberg News, March 4).
U.S. Plans II: Orbital Sciences Wins Booster ContractBoeing has awarded Orbital Sciences Corp. a $425 million contract to develop a booster rocket as part of the U.S. ground-based missile defense program, Bloomberg News reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 27). The U.S. Congress will soon be notified that Boeing awarded Orbital the four-year contract, according to sources familiar with the situation (see GSN, Oct. 5, 2001). Orbital could then be awarded a $550 million contract for 50 booster rockets through 2010, Bloomberg News reported. Experts said they were impressed Orbital was able to beat Lockheed Martin for the contract, which reduces the dependency on a single Boeing booster rocket design (see GSN, Dec. 14, 2001). “They beat out Lockheed, which is no mean feat,” said Paul Nisbet, an analyst with JSA Research Inc. “Lockheed’s very well-versed in the booster area with the Titan and Atlas vehicles.” Boeing still plans to hire Lockheed to run and improve the existing booster rocket program, said the sources close to the situation (Cappacio/Robison, Bloomberg News, March 4).
United States: Interceptor Test Rigged, Report SaysA report from a scientific research group says the test of a ship-based system to shoot down ballistic missiles conducted Jan. 25 used an oversized target, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Jan. 28). In the test, a missile interceptor launched from a U.S. Navy cruiser shot down an Aries target missile. A report by the Union of Concerned Scientists said the Aries target missile was five times longer and one-third wider than warheads used on the North Korean Nodong missile, the Chinese M-9 missile and any other medium-range missile the system is designed to attack. The target’s larger size made it easier to hit, the report said. Based on pictures of the target shortly before the interceptor hit, analysts concluded that the missile interceptor hit the Aries target in the middle, rather than at the warhead. “So that it would not have destroyed the warhead had it been a real interception,” the report said. “This raises the issue of what the tests tell you about capability in real-world scenarios,” said David Wright, who wrote the report. The ship-based system test was not meant to score an intercept but to show the interceptor’s guidance and navigational capabilities,” said Lt.-Col. Rick Lehner, spokesman for the Missile Defense Agency. The UCS report applied “test criteria well above what is prudently possible at this stage of the development program,” Lehner said (Bradley Graham, Washington Post, March 2). GAO Finds Flaws in Sensor Prototype A U.S. congressional report into allegations of corporate fraud has found numerous technical flaws in the prototype of an anti-missile sensor that would be used to track enemy warheads, the New York Times reported today. The General Accounting Office report, expected to be released today, details the technical problems in the sensor prototype developed by defense contractors TRW and Boeing. The flaws found include cooling and calibration problems, detection of targets in space where there were none and difficulties in recognizing mock warheads from decoys, among others. The GAO also criticizes TRW and Boeing’s claims that the sensor’s overall performance is excellent, according to the Times. Boeing and TRW were forthcoming about the flaws in the sensor prototype during discussions between August 1997 and April 1998, the GAO said. It did not say, however, whether Boeing and TRW described the flaws in response to allegations of fraud by Nira Schwartz, a former TRW senior engineer. In 1996, Schwartz had accused TRW of faking work on the sensor prototype. Schwartz’s allegations “appear to have sparked changes and improvements in a program that’s vital to national security,” said Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), who requested the GAO inquiry (William Broad, New York Times, March 4).
Israel: Officials Plan Joint Missile Defense With TurkeyHigh-level Turkish and Israeli officials agreed last month to set up a plan to build a joint missile defense system, the Jerusalem Post reported Thursday. The system would protect against missiles from nearby countries such as Iran, which is expected to have nuclear weapons by 2005, according to the Post. Israeli officials plan to travel soon to Turkey to begin periodic talks on the joint system, according to the Post. Officials reached the missile defense agreement in Tel Aviv at a regular meeting called “Biannual Strategic Talks and Military Dialogue.” U.S. officials also attended the meeting, giving the go-ahead to include Turkey in a project to produce the Arrow 2 missile (see GSN, Feb. 1), the Post reported (Metehan Demir, Jersusalem Post, Feb. 28).
U.S. Plans: Contractors Bid for Kwajalein Missile RangeThree U.S. defense contractors have entered bids for a contract to run the U.S. missile testing range on the Kwajalein atoll in the Pacific, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Dec. 3, 2001). The current contract at the Kwajalein missile range expires at the end of this year, said Kwajalein commander Col. Curtis Wrenn. A decision on a new contractor may be made by June, Wrenn said. The defense contractor Northrop Grumman and a joint venture between Bechtel and Lockheed Martin are challenging the current contractor, Raytheon, for the contract to manage the Kwajalein missile range’s logistics and technical operations (see GSN, Feb. 12). No company has ever won a re-bid at Kwajalein, according to AFP. The Kwajalein base is a $4 billion missile testing range that operates a combination of U.S. missile tracking equipment, interceptor launch areas and command facilities. It has been the main testing range for both U.S national and theater missile defense systems. The Kwajalein contract is estimated to be worth $200 million per year (Giff Johnson, Agence France-Presse, March 4).
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