Threat Assessment:  Al-Qaeda Threatens WMD Attacks

An al-Qaeda spokesman has warned that the organization will conduct more attacks on the United States and that al-Qaeda has a right to use chemical and biological weapons against U.S. civilians (see GSN, June 10).

In a posting on the al-Neda Web site, al-Qaeda spokesman Sulaiman Abu Ghaith said the United States should prepare itself for an attack of the same scale as the Sept. 11 attacks or worse, according to the Los Angeles Times.  The group will continue to target Americans and Jews as “individuals or institutions,” he said, according to the Times, which cited a report in the Arabic-language newspaper al-Hayat.

“We have the right to fight them by chemical and biological weapons so that they catch the fatal and unusual diseases that Muslims have caught due to their (U.S.) chemical and biological weapons,” Ghaith said.

Ghaith blamed the United States for killing thousands of Muslims around the world.

“So we have the right to kill 4 million Americans, including 1 million children, displace double that figure and injure and cripple hundreds of thousands,” he said.

U.S. intelligence officials have evidence indicating that al-Qaeda is still functioning with a command structure somewhere in Pakistan and is planning more attacks, according to the Times (Meyer/Drogin, Los Angeles Times, June 11).

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International Response:  G-8 Ministers Pledge to Prevent WMD Terrorism

Foreign ministers of the world’s top eight industrial nations ended two days of talks yesterday with a pledge to renew and increase efforts to prevent terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, May 14).

“Of particular concern to us is the emerging threat of terrorists using weapons of mass destruction,” Canadian Foreign Minister Bill Graham, chairman of the G-8 conference, held at a ski resort in western Canada, said.  “We must step up and coordinate our efforts to make sure that terrorists do not get their hands [on] these deadly weapons” (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, June 14).

The foreign ministers from the Group of Eight nations — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — called on countries to criminalize the offenses listed in the Biological Weapons Convention and to prosecute or extradite individuals who have committed such crimes.  The G-8 states also said they would develop measures to prevent and track illegal biological agents domestically and internationally (see GSN, April 29).

The states said they would work within the United Nations to complete work on the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism and called on other countries to do the same.  They also pledged support for efforts to strengthen the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials and to develop new measures to prevent nuclear smuggling (G-8 release I, June 13).

The assembled members of the conference also reaffirmed the importance of reducing stockpiles of weapon-grade plutonium, Graham said in a press statement (see GSN, May 31).  Donors are completing negotiations to create a multilateral framework for Russia’s plutonium disposal program by 2003, he added (G-8 release II, June 13).

The G-8 members said they would encourage international efforts to protect biological, chemical, nuclear, radiological and related facilities against terrorist attacks and would continue to support WMD prevention programs, such as the those of the International Atomic Energy Agency.  They also recommended developing guidelines for contingency planning at national levels for a terrorist WMD attack and for improving existing crisis response arrangements (G-8 release I).

For further information, see:

Biological Weapons Convention

BWC Text

States Parties (U.S. State Department)

U.N. Background on BWC

Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material

Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material Text

IAEA Background on Treaty

IAEA

International Atomic Energy Agency

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Export Controls:  U.S. Official Describes Russian, Chinese Systems

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Russia has an extensive but weakly enforced export control system while China’s export controls are difficult to decipher, said Matthew Borman, U.S. Deputy Assistant Commerce Secretary, during testimony last week before the Senate Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on International Security, Proliferation and Federal Services (see GSN, June 7).

Russia’s System

The Russian dual-use export control system has been in operation since the early 1990s, Borman said, and Russia belongs to several export control agreements, including the Wassenaar Arrangement and the Missile Technology Control Regime (see GSN, April 30).

The system consists of an export control law on dual-use items, regulations such as control lists, an interagency review of export license applications and an exporter outreach program, but it also has a limited enforcement capability, according to Borman.

Russia has a set of “catch-all” laws that prohibit exporters from sending uncontrolled items abroad if they know that the items are going to be used for weapons of mass destruction, Borman said.  The country’s export control law is implemented more specifically through a series of presidential decrees that set goods control lists individually for each regime of which Russia is a member, Borman said.  By contrast, the United States and other members of export control agreements have one master control list of dual-use goods that apply to all regimes, he said.

The penalties for violating the export control system can range up to 12 years in prison, as well as confiscation of assets and fines, he said (see GSN, May 31).  Among the Russian agencies responsible for enforcing export control laws are federal prosecutors, the Russian intelligence services and the Customs Service.  The Russian Economic Development and Trade Ministry is also creating an enforcement unit, he added.

To educate Russian exporters about their obligations and to help familiarize them with the idea of an internal export control program, Russian officials have put considerable effort into outreach programs to defense contractors, Borman said.  Such programs have been successful, according to a recent study conducted by Georgia’s Center for International Trade and Security, he said.

Since 1996, the United States has been conducting an export control program with Russia to describe how the U.S. system works, including its legal basis and framework for export control laws, control lists and other regulations, Borman said.

“Overall, this cooperation has achieved concrete results,” he said.

Flaw in the System:  Enforcement

The most significant flaw in Russia’s export control system is weak enforcement, Borman said. 

“It is clear from a variety of sources … that there have been a number of exports from Russia that would appear to constitute violations of Russia’s export control system,” Borman said.

Based on Russian requests, the United States has begun developing programs on prosecuting and enforcing administrative violations, according to Borman.  The programs include a review of enforcement measures and more training for prosecutors and judges.

“Establishment of an effective administrative enforcement program would be an important accomplishment,” Borman said.  “In our experience, administrative enforcement is essential to obtain a high degree of compliance by exporters.”

China

U.S. officials know less about China’s export control system because it is not comparable with the U.S. system, Borman said.  China does not have a separate export control law, he said, and the only export control regime to which it belongs is the Zangger Committee, a system to help implementation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (see GSN, May 16).

China has, however, created regulations governing exports of nuclear weapon-related dual-use items and of precursors to chemical weapons, Borman said.  Officials have also indicated interest in creating missile-related export control regulations but have not yet done so, he added (see GSN, April 17).

There is little U.S.-Chinese export control cooperation, Borman said.  A Chinese delegation traveled to the United States in 1999 for an overview of the U.S. export control system, but no further meetings occurred, Borman said.  In 2000, the U.S. Commerce Department held a seminar for importers in China on the U.S. export control system, but it was not a government-level meeting, he added.

For further information, see:

U.S. State Department MTCR Summary

Wassenaar Arrangement

Wassenaar Participating States

U.S. State Department Zangger Summary

Chinese Foreign Ministry Statement on Zangger

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Iraq:  Rumsfeld Says Iraq Lies About Weapons of Mass Destruction

Iraq said yesterday that it has no weapons of mass destruction and called on the United States to provide proof to back up U.S. claims Iraq is pursuing such weapons, but a top U.S. official said the Iraqi statement was a lie, according to reports (see GSN, May 7).

“If the United States has any doubts on the fact that Iraq is exempt from such activity, installation or program related to weapons of mass destruction, they can show (Iraq) their suspicions, questions or information,” said an Iraqi Foreign Ministry statement issued yesterday.  “Iraq will clarify the truth on this subject.”

The United States must submit questions on the issue through a “relevant international organization designated for nonproliferation … or through their representation in Baghdad or the Iraqi diplomatic representation in Washington,” the ministry said.

The United States has repeatedly said Iraq must readmit U.N. weapons inspectors (see GSN, June 4) to verify the country no longer has or attempts to produce weapons of mass destruction (Agence France-Presse, June 9).

“Iraq has said on many occasions that it is not concerned with entering the mass destruction weapons club … we left it in 1991,” the statement said, adding that Iraq has met its U.N. commitments related to such weapons.  The United States has not provided any evidence of its claims that Iraq produces weapons of mass destruction, the statement said (Jordan Times, June 10).

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said in response, “They are lying.”

“They have them [weapons of mass destruction], and they continue to develop them, and they have weaponized chemical weapons, we know that,” Rumsfeld said.  “They have an active program to develop nuclear weapons.  It is also clear that they are actively developing biological weapons.”

“The solution in Iraq would be regime change,” Rumsfeld said, adding he hoped Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would be removed from power during Rumsfeld’s time in office.

Rumsfeld Meets with Kuwaiti Officials and U.S. Troops

Rumsfeld also met today with senior Kuwaiti officials to discuss Iraq’s violations of U.N. resolutions.  They discussed “the way ahead” in the war on terrorism but did not talk about potential military action against Iraq, Rumsfeld said.

Rumsfeld spoke to U.S. troops at Kuwait’s Camp Doha Sunday.  “The global war on terrorism began in Afghanistan, to be sure, but it will not end there,” he said (see GSN, June 3).

“You are the people who stand between freedom and fear, between our people and a dangerous adversary that cannot be appeased, cannot be ignored and cannot be allowed to win,” he told about 1,000 troops stationed 35 miles from the Iraqi border, but he did not mention Iraq by name (MSNBC news services, June 10).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

IAEA Iraq Action Team

U.N. Office of the Iraq Program 

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