Kazakhstan:  International Partners to Convert Former Weapons Plant

A former Soviet nuclear weapons plant in Kazakhstan will be converted to civilian use under a new agreement announced by U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham yesterday (see GSN, June 4).

Under the U.S.-Kazakh agreement, the ULBA Metallurgical Plant will be converted to produce commercial copper beryllium master alloy.  The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration will provide expertise and $1.5 million for the project.  Los Alamos National Laboratory will provide technical assistance, according to a NNSA press release.  U.S. firms Brush Wellman Inc. and RWE NUKEM Inc. will partner with ULBA under the agreement.  The two firms will also provide $4 million for the project, while ULBA has pledged $4.5 million.

“The successful transition of ULBA from a nuclear weapons plant to a viable commercial entity is critical to U.S. national security,” Abraham said.  “Our new project represents a superior combination of private enterprise and trade investment with the nonproliferation objectives shared by both our nations” (U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration release, July 1).

The ULBA facility was previously a storage site for about 600 kilograms of weapon-grade highly enriched uranium, according to a 1998 report prepared by the Monterey Institute of International Studies.  The United States removed the uranium from the site in 1994 (Monterey Institute of International Studies release, March 1998).

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India-Pakistan:  U.S. Wants to Mediate, Help Avert Future Crises

The Bush administration has decided to increase diplomatic involvement in South Asia, particularly in relation to the dispute over Kashmir, in an attempt to avert another crisis between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan, according to media reports (see GSN, June 24).

“It might be three months, it might be nine months, but we all know that India and Pakistan will go back to the brink again,” a senior U.S. official said.  “Maybe next time they will go over the brink.”

The United States, which has previously accepted India’s refusal to allow a third party to mediate its dispute with Pakistan, is quietly changing that position with the support of its allies, the Financial Times reported yesterday.

“We are already de facto mediators on the Kashmir dispute, and there’s a recognition that this time we must stay involved,” the official said.

Several U.S. analysts also have said that the United States must be involved (see GSN, June 10).

“The level of hatred and distrust between India and Pakistan is so great that there is almost zero chance either would listen to the other’s proposals,” said George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  “Nothing will happen without the close involvement of the U.S.”

Recent U.S. diplomatic success in easing tensions might provide an opening for more involvement, according to the Times.  The United States obtained a pledge from Pakistan to permanently end infiltration of militants into Indian-controlled Kashmir and convinced India to return its navy to homeport and open airspace to Pakistani aircraft.

India is now more likely to trust the United States and knows that New Delhi alone cannot force Pakistan to end support for Islamic militants, according to the Times.  India now sees U.S. involvement as indispensable, the Times reported.  Also, Pakistan knows it cannot renew support to militants without severe consequences.

“If Pakistan continued to export violence to its neighbors as an instrument of foreign policy, its survival as a country would ultimately come into doubt,” said Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution.

The United States is unlikely to pressure India and Pakistan overtly.  U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, who helped resolve the latest crisis, said the United States will act as a “facilitator” rather than a mediator.

U.S. leaders do, however, have a plan for a peace process in South Asia, according to the Times.  Under the U.S. vision, Pakistan would follow up on its promise to crack down on militants and begin to dismantle their camps and infrastructure.  In exchange, India would reduce its military forces along the border.  India and Pakistan would then enter into formal talks and eventually the two countries would agree to formalize the Line of Control dividing Kashmir into an international border that would be open to both Kashmiri communities.  India would agree to establish a “supra-Kashmir” authority to promote cross-border cooperation.

Officials are concerned about two circumstances that might derail a peace process.  First, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s power and stability as a leader could be eroded if the Pakistani military believes he has surrendered Kashmir.  Second, India could react harshly if militants conduct another high-profile attack — and the United States believes there are al-Qaeda operatives in the area who might carry out such an attack (see GSN, June 14; Edward Luce, Financial Times, July 1).

For further information, see:

Stimson Center Background on Kashmir

Pakistani Embassy to the United States

Indian Embassy to the United States

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Egypt:  Officials Plan for Nuclear Power, Dismiss Weapons Reports

Egypt plans to build its first nuclear energy plant, Egyptian Electricity and Energy Minister Hassan Ahmed Younis said Saturday, according to the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz.  In addition to building the plant northwest of Alexandria, officials intend to repair and upgrade the local electricity network, he said.

Younis’ announcement came a week after the German newspaper Die Welt said that Egypt might be seeking to build nuclear weapons (see GSN, June 25).  China is helping Egypt produce enriched uranium, the daily reported (Daniel Sobelman, Ha’aretz, July 1).

China, however, denied that it is helping Egypt develop nuclear weapons.  A Chinese Embassy spokesman in Cairo said Sunday that China has signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and has taken serious steps to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, the spokesman said (Cairo Middle East News Agency, June 30 in FBIS-NES, July 1).

U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton is expected to visit Israel in the coming days to discuss ways to curb the threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, Ha’aretz reported today.  The United States has no concerns about Egypt in terms of nuclear weapons, a U.S. official said, calling the Die Welt report “disinformation.”

Israeli intelligence services also discounted the report.

“We have no proof that Egypt is involved in a military nuclear program.  It has a certain degree of capability and infrastructure, but as far as we know it made the decision not to go down that route,” a senior Israeli official said (Aluf Benn, Ha’aretz, July 2).

According to yesterday’s Ha’aretz report, Egypt has neither confirmed nor denied the Die Welt story (Sobelman, Ha’aretz).  Die Welt, however, reported that Egyptian officials have said the country is not seeking a nuclear weapon capability (Jacques Schuster, Die Welt, June 22, Global Security Newswire translation).

For further information, see:

NPT Text

NPT members

U.N. Background on NPT

Carnegie Endowment Nuclear Status Map

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North Korea:  Delegation Studies Nuclear Safety in South Korea

A North Korean delegation arrived in South Korea today to begin 26 days of classes on how to safely operate two nuclear reactors currently under construction in North Korea, according to South Korean officials (see GSN, June 25).

The 25 officials will participate in the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety education program and will visit nuclear power plants in Uljin in North Gyeongsang Province, a South Korean Unification Ministry official said (see GSN, Jan. 2).  The education program is sponsored by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, the international consortium that is building the reactors in North Korea as part of the 1994 Agreed Framework, in which North Korea agreed to freeze its nuclear program.

The delegation’s visit will proceed despite a North Korean-South Korean naval clash Saturday that killed at least four South Korean sailors, the ministry official said (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, July 3).

South Korean President Kim Dae-jung said today that his country will respond more severely “if North Korea tries to hurt us again with military force,” but he added that he plans to continue his policy of engaging North Korea in dialogue (Paul Shin, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, July 2).

Other North Korean delegations have visited South Korea as part of the KEDO project, including 10 North Koreans who inspected two airports in May to prepare for a proposed direct air route between the two countries for transporting workers and materials for the nuclear reactors (see GSN, May 21).  Another 123 North Korean technicians are scheduled to visit South Korea for training in the last quarter of this year (Seo, Korea Herald).

For further information, see:

Agreed Framework Text

KEDO

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Russian Testing:  “Non-Nuclear Experiments” to Continue, Ivanov Says

While Russia has no plans to resume testing nuclear weapons, it will continue “non-nuclear experiments,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said Thursday at the Novaya Zemlya test range (see GSN, June 27).  Since ending nuclear testing, Russia has performed 132 hydrodynamic tests to represent nuclear explosions, Ivanov said.  There are also no plans to reduce the funding or number of troops at the test range, he added (RFE/RL Newsline, June 28).

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