Iran:  U.S. Officials to Urge Russia to End Nuclear Aid

The Bush administration yesterday directed a high-level delegation to Moscow to persuade Russia to end nuclear assistance to Iran that could aid that country militarily (see GSN, July 30).

The officials had planned the visit previously, but Russia’s release last week of a draft document outlining plans to provide Iran with five additional nuclear reactors surprised and angered the White House, according to an administration official.

“It’s fair to say the White House was infuriated by that and extremely surprised,” the official said.

The officials are expected to present Moscow with a list of measures to reduce cooperation with Iran, according to the Washington Post.  The list includes ending exchanges of weapons scientists, blocking sales of dual-use items and strengthening export controls, a senior Bush administration official said (Peter Baker, Washington Post, July 30).

Weapons vs. Energy

The Bush administration has told Russia the reason Iran wants additional nuclear reactors is to develop nuclear weapons, according to Bloomberg.com.  Iran might be able to build an operational nuclear weapon within five years if Russia refuses to end aid, U.S. Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary Marshall Billingslea told a Senate Governmental Affairs subcommittee yesterday.

“This is a pressing matter that has very much got the administration’s attention,” Billingslea said in testimony before the International Security, Proliferation and Federal Services Subcommittee.

Billingslea criticized Iranian claims that the nuclear reactors are needed for energy, according to Bloomberg.com.  Iran has such large quantities of natural gas that it is burning without using six times the amount of any other country, he said, adding that the burned-off natural gas would provide three times the energy of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

“If Tehran’s agenda were truly to improve its energy reserves, it would just spend a fraction of the money it is spending on Bushehr and generate three times as much power by simply capturing the natural gas it is wasting,” Billingslea said (Paul Basken, Bloomberg.com, July 29).

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South Asia:  U.S. Plans Active Engagement With India and Pakistan

Six senior U.S. officials plan to visit India and Pakistan during the next five months, U.S. officials said yesterday.

The United States wants to remain engaged in the region to help prevent tensions from escalating and possibly leading to war, analysts said (see GSN, July 29).  Secretary of State Colin Powell concluded a two-day visit to the region Sunday.

“Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage will return to the region in August, and other senior U.S. officials will also continue engagement in coming months,” State Department spokesman Phil Reeker said.  Armitage was a leader in the U.S. campaign to persuade India and Pakistan to de-escalate tensions last month, according to United Press International (see GSN, June 24).

The United States is not trying to act as a mediator but is “prepared to provide facilitative assistance if the parties agree,” Reeker said.  “Our role is that of a friend … trying to help both countries address their differences … through a productive dialogue,” he said (see GSN, July 2).  To resolve the conflict, India and Pakistan must enter into dialogue on the disputed Kashmir territory in a way that “takes into account the wishes of the people of Kashmir,” he added (Anwar Iqbal, United Press International, July 29).

For further information, see:

Stimson Center Background on Kashmir

Pakistani Government

Indian Government

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Iran:  Russia to Build Five More Nuclear Reactors for Tehran

Russia announced plans Saturday to build five nuclear reactors in Iran over the next 10 years in addition to the nuclear power plant that Russia is currently constructing at the Bushehr site (see GSN, July 24).

The plans to build the five additional reactors are contained in a document on enhancing Russian economic, political and scientific connections with Iran over the next decade, which Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov recently approved, according to the Washington Post.  While Russia and Iran have discussed building additional reactors since 1996, the agreement advances those discussions by putting the idea into writing, the Post reported.  Russia plans to present the document to Iran in September, according to the Post.

No new contracts have been signed for the additional reactors, according to the Post.  Russia’s record of slow construction on the Bushehr plant suggests that the additional reactors would not be built soon, the Post reported.  Three additional reactors might be installed at the Bushehr plant, which is expected to become operational by early 2004, according to the Russian plan.  A second, two-reactor nuclear power plant might also be built at Ahvaz, the document says (Peter Baker, Washington Post, July 27).

Russia’s construction of a second nuclear power plant for Iran “would play into the hands of the far right in the Bush administration who are already skeptical that Russia can be a partner in the war on terrorism” and other foreign policy issues, said John Tedstrom, a National Security Council aide in the Clinton administration (see related GSN story, today; Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times, July 27).

Russia’s increased nuclear assistance to Iran, however, could mean billions of dollars for the Russian nuclear power industry, according to experts.

“To a large extent, this is about money,” said Dmitri Trenin, an analyst at the Moscow Center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  “No one here wants to establish Iran as a nuclear power, but there are many people here who believe Iran is likely to become one with Russia’s help or without.  It’s useful to have a finger in the pie.”

While U.S. President George W. Bush has charged that Iran forms part of an “axis of evil,” Russia sees Iran as “a good citizen of the region, or not much worse than the others,” Trenin said.  Russia’s nuclear assistance to Iran has not violated any international agreements, Russian officials said.

“I don’t think we’re doing anything illegitimate,” said Sergei Rogov, director of the Institute for USA and Canada Studies in Moscow.  “Whether it is politically correct is another question” (Baker, Washington Post).

Officials plan to conduct high-level U.S.-Russian talks on Russia’s nuclear assistance to Iran within the next few months, according to a Bush administration official (see GSN, July 12).  The current White House strategy is to increase criticism of Russia and to warn Russia that its failure to cooperate might damage U.S.-Russian relations, according to the Washington Post.

“We continue to have concerns that technology and know-how for nuclear weapons are flowing to Iran,” the U.S. ambassador to Russia, Alexander Vershbow, said in remarks outside Moscow Monday.  “Russia has to avoid letting its desire for commercial gain end up hastening the day that these countries can pose a threat that could not only destabilize their own region, but undermine the security of the entire world.”

Proposal to Destroy Bushehr

Some U.S. defense officials have said that the Bushehr plant should be destroyed before it receives its first shipment of Russian nuclear fuel, according to the Post.

“There is some support for preemption within the administration,” said Middle East expert Anthony Cordesman.

If Iran agrees to abide by international safeguards, then the Bushehr plant is probably not a threat, according to others in the Bush administration.  While destroying the plant probably would not stop Iran’s nuclear program, it might increase the country’s hostility toward the United States at a time the Bush administration is trying to improve relations, they said.

Even though the United States might not choose to use military action against the Bushehr nuclear plant, Israel might do so, the Post reported.  While only a few Israeli officials support attacking the plant, Israel has indicated it will not allow Bushehr to become operational, according to the Post.

“Does Israel have a military option?” asked a Washington official.  “The answer is yes.”

Israel destroyed the Iraqi Osirak nuclear power plant in a pre-emptive attack in 1981, according to the Post.  Recently, Israel has warned Iran that it considers the Bushehr plant to be a security threat (see GSN, June 27).  There is some indication that Iran has begun installing anti-aircraft missiles near the plant and a nuclear research facility near Tehran, according to analysts who have examined satellite photographs of the sites.

“Within the next year, either the U.S. or Israel is going to either attack Iran’s (nuclear sites) or acquiesce to Iran being a nuclear state,” said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a nonpartisan military and intelligence research center (Dana Priest, Washington Post, July 29).

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India-Pakistan:  Powell Calls for Fair Elections, End to Infiltration

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell called on India and Pakistan yesterday to take steps to avert war and increase stability, specifically by ensuring that elections in the disputed Kashmir territory in the fall are free and fair and that militant infiltration into India’s side of Kashmir ends (see GSN, July 26).

After meeting with both Indian and Pakistani officials, Powell said he was encouraged.

“Everyone is focused on the need to get tensions down and ensure that it doesn’t start over again,” he said, referring to recent high tensions on the subcontinent that decreased only after U.S. officials shuttled between the two countries.

Free and fair elections in India’s side of Kashmir might “be a first step in a broader process that begins to address Kashmiri grievances and leads India and Pakistan back to dialogue.  Only a productive and sustained bilateral dialogue on all issues, including Kashmir, will prevent future crises and will finally bring peace to the region,” Powell said yesterday in New Delhi (see GSN, July 10).

Powell asked India to free political prisoners and to allow international observers to monitor the Kashmir elections.  U.S. officials said India has jailed two dozen politicians who do not advocate violence.  India has also refused to allow any organized monitoring mission, and Pakistanis and Kashmiris have said past elections were not fair.

Powell also said he had “forceful” discussions with Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf.  Musharraf agreed to take steps to end remaining infiltration, Powell said.  India has said militant infiltration continues, but Musharraf said it has ended (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, July 29).

Powell said infiltration has decreased but has not ended completely.

“I am not, independently through my own sources, able to substantiate everything the Pakistanis are saying to us,” he said.  “There is still a long way to go before negotiations can begin.”

Several U.S. officials plan to visit the region in the next few months in efforts to decrease tensions and build stronger U.S. ties with both Pakistan and India, Powell said.  He added, however, that the United States could not mediate the situation.

“If you try to internationalize it at this point, it will not move forward because of Indian resistance,” he said (Todd Purdum, New York Times, July 29).

The next 10 weeks will be essential to decide whether both countries are truly serious about taking steps for peace, Powell said, adding that a decrease in infiltration and a de-escalatory response from India would be key (Wright, Los Angeles Times).

For further information, see:

Stimson Center Background on Kashmir

Pakistani Government

Indian Government

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United States:  Belgium Hopes to Decide on MOX in August

A member of the Belgian Parliament has said officials will probably decide by the end of August whether to agree to a U.S. request to convert a small amount of plutonium to mixed-oxide fuel, the Greenville News in South Carolina reported Friday (see GSN, July 18).

The United States has asked Belgium to convert a small amount of plutonium into MOX fuel to assist a project to build conversion facilities in the United States.  Belgium is divided on the issue, with conservatives supporting the U.S. request and Social Democrats and Greens opposed, according to Eloi Glorieux, a Parliament member who opposes the U.S. request.

“Right now, it’s absolutely open,” Glorieux said.  “It will depend on how the game is played.  It will be the one who gives in first.  It’s not an economic issue.  It’s not really a social or an employment issue.  It’s an ethical question, so to say.”

Since Belgium plans to eventually cease production and use of MOX fuel, it makes little sense to assist another country’s production, Glorieux said.  The United States also has other options besides Belgium, he said.

“If Belgium doesn’t do it, France will,” Glorieux said.  “And if Belgium and France won’t do it, then the United States has enough experience and technology that it will only take one or two more years for them to make their own MOX facilities.  But I think it is a very bad message to give to the world, that the use of MOX is a good thing.”

Converting plutonium into MOX test fuel is essential for the success of the U.S. MOX program, said Lisa Cutler, spokeswoman for the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration (see GSN, June 21).

“We need to know how the material is going to perform in the reactor,” Cutler said.  “And we need to perform tests so that the facility that is going to be built is done to the right specifications” (Tim Smith, Greenville News, July 28).

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North Korea:  U.S. Resumes Efforts to Restart Dialogue

Efforts to resume U.S.-North Korean dialogue might be back on track after a June 29 naval clash between North Korea and South Korea, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Friday (see GSN, July 8).

Powell indicated that he might meet with North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun this week at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations conference in Brunei.  Such a meeting would be the highest level of contact between the two countries since U.S. President George W. Bush took office.  Regarding the opportunity to meet with Paek, Powell said, “I’m not ruling anything in or out.”

Speculation that U.S. and North Korean officials might meet at the conference increased after North Korean Cabinet official Kim Ryong Song expressed regret Thursday to South Korea for the naval clash, calling it “accidental.”  North Korea also said Thursday that it is ready to receive a U.S. envoy (see GSN, July 3).

“In the last couple of days, they’ve made what I consider some very positive statements that we have welcomed — acknowledging responsibility for the naval incident that took place a few weeks back, also once again indicating receptivity to a dialogue with the United States.  We welcome that.  We’ll be following on it,” Powell said Friday.

The Bush administration has said it wants talks with North Korea to focus on concerns about weapons of mass destruction and redeployment of North Korean conventional forces from the demilitarized zone with South Korea (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, July 27).

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov reaffirmed North Korea’s interest in U.S. dialogue after meeting with Paek and leader Kim Jong Il yesterday in North Korea.

“Pyongyang is ready for a constructive dialogue with the U.S. and Japan without preconditions,” Ivanov said.

Ivanov added that he had “the impression that North Korean officials are ready for contacts with officials from the United States and Japan as early as the ASEAN summit in Brunei.”  Japan said its foreign minister plans to meet with Paek during the conference (Paul Eckert, Reuters, July 29).

Unlikely to Agree to Inspections

North Korea is still unlikely to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect potential nuclear weapon sites unless the country’s relationship with the United States improves, said Charles Kartman, executive director of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization.  KEDO is a U.S.-led consortium responsible for building a nuclear power plant in North Korea (see GSN, June 25).

The Bush administration has said North Korea must agree to allow IAEA officials to begin inspections immediately, saying that a 1994 U.S.-North Korea agreement requires the inspections to begin.  The Agreed Framework, however, also calls for efforts to improve U.S.-North Korean relations, and those relations have deteriorated over the past two years, Kartman said, according to Saturday’s Washington Post.

North Korea “is not going to give up its hypothetical nuclear capability unless it gets something of equal value to them, and what they agreed to was improved relations with the United States,” he said.

Kartman said he expects U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly to lead a U.S. team to North Korea, but he expressed concern that North Korea would want higher-level contacts.

Meanwhile, KEDO’s project to build two nuclear reactors in North Korea is continuing, and the organization plans to hold a ceremony Aug. 7 to pour concrete for the reactors, Kartman said (see GSN, May 13; Doug Struck, Washington Post, July 27).

A delegation of 25 North Korean officials returned to their country Saturday after completing 26 days of safety training in South Korea in preparation for the completion of the nuclear plant (see GSN, July 2; Korea Herald, July 27).

For further information, see:

Agreed Framework Text

KEDO

International Atomic Energy Agency

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