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U.S. Plans: Pentagon Plans No Intercept Testing Until AutumnBy David Ruppe The agency might conduct up to five intercept tests before the system is scheduled for deployment at the end of fiscal year 2004, he said. Integrated flight tests 11 and 12 have been cancelled and the following two scheduled tests, which will examine new booster models, will not include intercept tests, Missile Defense Agency spokesman Lt. Col. Richard Lehner told Global Security Newswire. The next intercept test, Lehner said, would then occur in “the fall of 2003,” near the beginning of fiscal 2004, which begins Oct. 1. The decision comes as the Bush administration announced a plan last month to deploy an initial ground-based interceptor capability by the end of fiscal 2004 (see GSN, Dec. 17, 2002). “The missiles will probably go into silos in the late summer of ’04,” said Lehner. Booster Problem The decision to skip the tests also coincides with a failed intercept test last month — attributed to a booster separation failure — bringing the program’s high-profile intercept record to five successes in eight attempts (see GSN, Dec. 11, 2002). Those attempts launched a missile interceptor with a rocket booster that the Missile Defense Agency has planned to replace and the agency has cancelled the last two tests using the existing booster. “We won’t be flying IFT-11 or IFT-12 since we want to concentrate on the booster this year,” wrote Lehner, who explained the schedule in an email. Two follow-on booster models, developed by Lockheed Martin and Orbital Sciences, are in competition to win the final contract and are scheduled for testing in May and June or July, Lehner said. Integrated flight tests scheduled for this autumn, would include actual target intercept attempts, using one or both of the new boosters, Lehner said. Operational Testing Bumped Up Pentagon officials also are expected to begin including the future operators of the system in the flight-testing sometime in early fiscal 2004, according to Lehner. Decisions on operational testing specifics, including schedules, remain to be worked out by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the U.S. Space Command and the Army, he said. The Space Command, the Army and the Army National Guard are expected to operate the system. Under a previous schedule described by the administration, operational testing was expected to occur much later in the research and development phase, in 2007, following more than a dozen additional flight tests, according to David Wright, a missile defense analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists and critic of the deployment decision. An additional eight operational tests were scheduled through the end of 2010, he wrote in an article last summer. “It makes no sense to make a deployment decision before initial operational testing has been completed; under a reasonable yet best-case scenario, deployment of the ground-based midcourse system would not take place until some time after 2008,” he wrote.
From January 7, 2003 issue.Israel: United States Puts Off Israeli Aid RequestThe United States delayed a decision today on $12 billion in economic assistance for Israel, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Nov. 8, 2002;Barry Schweid, Associated Press, Jan. 7). U.S. and Israeli officials yesterday began negotiating as much as $4 billion in direct aid and $8 billion in loan guarantees to pay for costs Israel might incur as a result of a U.S. attack on Iraq, the Washington Times reported today. Israel is requesting between $3 billion and $4 billion in direct aid, in addition to the almost $3 billion Israel already receives annually from the United States, according to the Times. Sean McCormick, a spokesman for the National Security Council, would not comment on the negotiations or even confirm they were underway. Some of the aid would be used to help with the cost of deploying the Arrow missile system, the Times reported (see GSN, Jan. 6). A deal with Israel will most likely wait until after a conflict with Iraq to reduce Arab resistance to a U.S. invasion, the Times reported. The money could be used to ensure that Israel stays on the sidelines during any such conflict, one White House official said, but the White House officially denied any link between aid to Israel and a conflict with Iraq. “This is not directly related to compensation in the event of an attack,” White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said. Ohad Marani, the Israeli Finance Ministry’s director general, said the funds are being requested to boost the Israeli economy. The money would be used “to help us cope with the present difficulties in which the Israeli economy finds itself … because of the continuing security situation,” he said. “Fighting terrorism is not only about security, it’s about the economy. It’s very difficult funding the extra needs of defense. The burden is made more difficult because the economy has shrunk. We’re asking the Americans to share part of the burden,” he added (Joseph Curl, Washington Times, Jan. 7).
From January 6, 2003 issue.Israel: Officials Test Fire Multiple Rockets From Arrow LauncherIsrael successfully fired a complete Arrow missile and three unarmed rockets yesterday in a test of the missile defense system that would be called upon if Iraq were to launch Scud missiles at Israel, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Jan. 2). The missiles were fired seconds apart at computer-simulated targets, according to Arieh Hertzog, director of Israel’s missile defense efforts. “It did everything it could have done to intercept those targets,” Hertzog said. “We know how to simulate the real thing,” he added (Dexter Filkins, New York Times, Jan. 6). The three other rockets were fired to measure the effect that launches would have on missiles that remain in the launcher. The launcher is able to hold six missiles, United Press International reported yesterday (Joshua Brilliant, United Press International, Jan. 5). Israeli and U.S. forces will test Israel’s entire missile defense system in coming days, the Associated Press reported yesterday (Eitan Hess-Ashkenazi, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Jan. 5). Previously, officials have only fired one Arrow missile at a time during tests, AP reported (Associated Press/Washington Post, Jan. 6). Four incoming missiles were simulated in yesterday’s test (Brilliant, UPI). This marked the 10th Arrow firing and the fifth time that the complete system was tested, the Jerusalem Post reported (Margot Dudkevitch, Jerusalem Post, Jan. 6). For further information, see: Federation of American Scientists Background on Arrow
From January 6, 2003 issue.U.S. Plans I: U.S. Missile Defenses System Could Cost $1.2 Trillion, Critics SayThe costs of a layered U.S. national missile defense system, championed by the Bush administration, could reach up to $1.2 trillion, according to a report released Friday by the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation and the Economists Allied for Arms Reduction (see GSN, Dec. 20). The costs of a full missile defense system, including boost-phase, midcourse and terminal defense systems, is estimated to be between $800 billion and $1.2 trillion, says the report. The cost estimates by the Bush administration focus more on development and acquisition costs and neglect long-term operations and maintenance expenses, the report says. If the Bush administration plans to meet its goal of having a missile defense system fully deployed by 2015, about half of the costs — up to $500 billion — could be incurred within the next 13 years, leading to rapid spending increases, according to the report. The remaining $300 billion to $800 billion would apply to operating the missile defense system until 2035. Because of the need to accelerate short-term spending, missile defense outlays could account for up to 12 percent of U.S. defense spending by 2011, it says. Kenneth Arrow, a Noble prize-winning economist, warned that the high costs of a missile defense system could lead to tougher spending decisions in the future. “Some might say ‘when it comes to national security, costs don’t matter.’ But, of course, what economists tell us is that costs always matter,” Arrow said in the preface to the report. “Something else has to be given up, and when the magnitudes are those found in this study, a lot has to be given up,” he added (Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation release, Jan. 2). For further information, see:
From January 6, 2003 issue.U.S. Plans II: MDA Prepares to Install Airborne Laser on 747A modified Boeing 747-400, designed to carry the Airborne Laser missile defense system, arrived at Edwards Air Force Base in California Dec. 19 for the laser to be installed, Aviation Week & Space Technology reported today (see GSN, Nov. 26). Base technicians are assembling the laser in a laboratory that contains a separate 747 fuselage, where the laser will be tested before being installed in the modified aircraft, the magazine reported (Michael Dornheim, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Jan. 6). For further information, see:
From January 6, 2003 issue.United States: Pentagon Sends Patriots to Middle EastThe U.S. Defense Department last week dispatched about 100 pieces of Patriot missile interceptor system equipment from Biggs Army Airfield in Texas to the Persian Gulf region, base officials said. Up to 400 soldiers from Fort Bliss in Texas are to follow within the next two weeks (see GSN, Jan. 3). The troops being sent to the Persian Gulf region, taken from the 108th and 35th Air Defense Artillery brigades, were originally scheduled for a rotation in the region in the spring, but that was canceled and replaced with the new deployment, Lt. Col. Rod Burke, 2-43 ADA battalion commander, said. “The deployment is earlier than anticipated, but we constantly talk to our soldiers about being prepared and to keep their families informed,” Burke said (Laura Cruz, El Paso Times, Jan. 3).
From January 3, 2003 issue.Israel: Officials Plan to Test Arrow and Patriot TogetherThe United States and Israel plan to test the new Arrow missile defense system in conjunction with Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missiles during joint exercises next week, CNN.com reported yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 30, 2002). This will mark the first time the two missile defense weapons have been tested together, CNN.com reported. The joint tests come on the heels of naval exercises this week involving the United States, Turkey and Israeli forces. The missile defense tests are scheduled to begin Sunday, according to a source with knowledge of the Arrow system (Wallace/Lemberg, CNN.com, Jan. 2). For further information, see: Federation of American Scientists Background on Arrow
From January 2, 2003 issue.U.S. Plans I: Greenlandic Officials Hopeful of U.S. Deal on Thule BaseBy David Ruppe U.S. State Department officials, however, said they are unwilling to revise the 1951 agreement, which allows the United States to operate an air base that includes a ballistic missile early warning radar station at Thule in northwest Greenland. “Our position is that we really don’t care to renegotiate with Denmark,” a spokesman said today. Greenland is a Danish territory that has had limited home rule since 1979, but Denmark continues to conduct its foreign policy. If the provincial government in Greenland had its way, the amended agreement would make Greenland an equal partner to it and would include compensation to local peoples for the U.S. presence there as well as arrangements on trade, the environment and other issues. “One of the basic problems we have with the American presence is, unlike any other country that plays host to the American base, we don’t get anything out of it at all,” according to a senior Greenland official. “We don’t get economic compensation, we don’t get trade. We don’t get anything,” the official said. While Denmark could agree to the upgrade without Greenland’s approval, there is opposition to that idea in the Danish Parliament. In addition, the pro-independence and -demilitarization government elected in Greenland this month might cause trouble for Copenhagen, possibly focusing attention on Denmark’s international reputation as strong advocate of indigenous peoples’ rights. The issue has gained national attention in Denmark and Greenland. The Bush administration considers the upgrade a key component for expanding the developing U.S. national missile defense system to address long-range ballistic missile threats that might emerge in the Middle East. In a meeting earlier this month with senior Greenlandic and Danish officials in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell formally requested permission to upgrade radar capabilities at the Thule Air Base in the northwest corner of Greenland. Then, Powell signaled U.S. receptiveness to renegotiating the 1951 agreement, the senior Greenland official said in an interview. “The secretary of state said up until now the United States had been pretty pleased with the ’51 agreement and thought it would be a good framework,” said the official. “Who wouldn’t? The ’51 agreement basically gives away a large chunk of Greenland for American purposes with nothing in return,” the official said. Powell, though, “was open to the standpoint that it was signed in ’51 and we have had home rule since ’79 and so there were some constitutional problems there. He was open to looking into what could be done for amending the agreement to reflect Greenland’s wishes, which was an opening,” said the official. Josef Motzfeldt, who acts as Greenland’s foreign minister, issued the same conclusion in comments following the meeting, saying, “I am very satisfied that Greenland has now gotten promises to the effect that the U.S. is ready to discuss a reshaping of the defense agreement when the negotiations begin.” At a press conference just prior to that meeting, however, Powell indicated the opposite. “The defense agreement of 1951, I think, has stood us all in good stead and I don’t see a need to change or modify that agreement,” he said. “I should take note of the fact that over the last 50-odd years, as issues have come up we’ve been able to resolve those issues with memorandums of understanding or other ways of dealing with those issues other than changing the 1951 agreement.” Motzfeldt told Powell at the meeting that “renegotiation of ’51 agreement was a clear condition for any further talks, and two, that an upgrading of the Thule radar should in no way be a threat to world peace or give the start to a new arms race,” said the official. Greenlandic and Danish officials have said they are planning to put the U.S. request to a public and political debate before providing an answer in the spring. The Danish government is reportedly inclined to approve the U.S. request. Grievances The United States has operated an early warning missile detection base at Thule since the conclusion of the U.S.-Denmark defense agreement in 1951. Native groups have complained the agreement offered them nothing in exchange for the usurpation of tribal hunting grounds. They also fault the agreement for not addressing the environmental impact of the base and are critical of the 1968 crash of a U.S. plane carrying four nuclear weapons, which released plutonium into the environment. Official Danish policy at the time was there would be no nuclear weapons on Danish territory. Greenlandic officials also would like to see changes to the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972, the official said, which restricts imports of marine mammal products, including seal products, a major Greenland export, into the United States. It “means that we can’t even wear our coats when we visit the United States, because it is not legal to enter the United States wearing a sealskin coat,” the official said. Greenland reportedly also is seeking cooperation on fighting pollution in the Arctic and a student exchange program with the United States. In another part of the Arctic, the United States has begun compensating a local Alaskan community for disruption caused by the administration’s new missile defense plans. The Alaska town of Delta Junction, near the missile battery site at Fort Greely, is preparing to receive nearly $16 million in federal compensation this year that locals hope to spend on a new recreation center, small business loans, a high-tech library, local schools and city hall, according to local reports. The administration has offered Britain industrial participation in the multibillion-dollar missile defense development program in exchange for permission to upgrade radar at its Fylingdales base. No Coverage Greenland officials contend the U.S. missile defense system as currently planned would not protect either Greenland or Denmark, while making the territory a greater target for attacks. During their visit to Washington, the Greenlandic officials received a Pentagon briefing that showed Greenland would not be immediately covered by the U.S. missile defense system, because the Pentagon currently plans initially to place interceptor missiles in Alaska and California, too distant to protect Greenland, the official said. “They said that Greenland could only be covered if missiles were posted on the East Coast,” said the official. The upgraded Thule radar also would not provide surveillance coverage for Denmark from any missile threats in the Middle East, according to David Wright, a missile defense analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists. “It wouldn’t be able to see attacks from the Middle East on Europe more generally,” he said. U.S. officials also have proposed basing interceptor missiles in Britain or elsewhere in Europe, as well as upgrading the Fylingdales radar, which experts say would extend coverage to much of Europe and Greenland as well as the United States.
From January 2, 2003 issue.Israel: Tel Aviv to Test Arrow Missile InterceptorIsraeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz has said Israel is planning a test of its Arrow missile interceptor system soon, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Oct.7, 2002). The test will involve multiple interceptor launches, as opposed to previous tests, Mofaz said. So far, Israel has conduced nine Arrow tests, with eight considered successful, AP reported. “I hope that the test will succeed because sometimes there are technical problems that don’t necessarily demonstrate the capability of the weapon system,” Mofaz said in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv. “If it doesn’t succeed, we will have time to fix it and act accordingly,” he added (Laurie Copans, Associated Press/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Jan. 2). For further information, see: Federation of American Scientists Background on Arrow
From January 2, 2003 issue.U.S. Plans II: MIT Looks Into Possible Missile Defense Study Cover-UpMassachusetts Institute of Technology officials are investigating allegations that a federally supported laboratory at the school covered up evidence critical of the prospective U.S. missile defense system, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Mar. 6, 2002). The university is looking into a 1998 report that cleared military contractor TRW of falsifying missile sensor test data. The report was completed under the auspices of the Lincoln Laboratory, MIT’s chief recipient of U.S. government funding, the Times reported. “Potentially, this is the most serious fraud that we’ve seen at a great American university,” said Theodore Postol, the MIT physicist who first made the allegations of impropriety almost two years ago. The case follows the allegations of Nira Schwartz, a senior engineer at TRW in 1995 and 1996, who said the contractor had faked missile defense sensor test results for ground-based hit-to-kill technology. The Lincoln Laboratory oversaw a federally funded report that exonerated TRW but Postol has insisted that the conclusions of the Lincoln investigation are “false and unsupported.” In early 2002, Postol faulted MIT for not following up on his complaints and ignoring a possible case of “serious scientific fraud.” Edward Crawley, head of the university’s Aeronautics and Astronautics Department, initially said an investigation into the Lincoln Laboratory report was unnecessary, but in November he decided to support an inquiry and late last month Crawley recommended a full investigation. “The bedrock principle for all research done at MIT is scientific integrity,” said a statement from officials at the school. “Any allegation that there has been any deviation from that principle must be taken seriously, and that is what MIT has done in this case,” the statement added. Postol’s case was supported by a February 2002 General Accounting Office study that called the TRW test results “highly misleading.” The GAO report also said the Lincoln report relied on data processed by TRW, but investigators did not look into raw data from the tests, the Times reported. “Either there’s a serious problem with the GAO report, which needs to be corrected,” Postol told Crawley in August, “or Lincoln Laboratory could be involved at the highest levels of management in covering up fraud,” he added. Critics have faulted Postol for his attention to the TRW situation because the contractor lost a competition for the contract to Raytheon in December 1998. The case is important because it is a rare opportunity to look at the missile defense system’s feasibility, he said. “It’s absolutely relevant,” Postol said. “It goes to the heart of whether this system has any chance of working. It’s more relevant now than when the case first arose,” he added. MIT officials would not comment specifically on the inquiry into Lincoln Laboratory, citing confidentiality policies (William Broad, New York Times, Jan. 2).
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