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Iraq I: Baghdad Officials Make Concessions to U.N. InspectorsIn a letter to U.N. officials delivered this morning, Iraq agreed to allow U.N. weapons inspectors to conduct surveillance flights using U.S. U-2 aircraft. The issue had been a major point of contention when the top U.N. inspectors visited Baghdad Saturday and Sunday. “The inspectors are now free to use the American U-2s as well as French and Russian planes,” said Iraqi U.N. Ambassador Mohamed al-Douri. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said today that Iraq had agreed to greater cooperation in several other areas as well. “We made progress on all the areas we asked for,” he said (see GSN, Feb. 7; Dafna Linzer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 10). Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix cautiously concurred with that assessment yesterday. “I hope I have seen in those days the beginning of taking these remaining disarmament issues more seriously,” Blix said (Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb. 10). In addition, al-Douri said Iraq would pass legislation next week to criminalize WMD production and other activities (Linzer, Associated Press). During the weekend meetings, Iraqi officials provided documents that included information on Iraq’s efforts to develop anthrax, nerve gas and ballistic missiles, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. The documents still needed to be examined further to determine their value, Blix said, adding that they did not appear to contain new information (Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb. 10). “This time they presented some papers to us in which they focused upon new issues,” Blix said. “Not new evidence really as far as I can see, but they have nevertheless focused on real open issues and that is welcome,” he added (Reuters/MSNBC.com, Feb. 10). Iraq also supplemented a list of its nuclear scientists, said Iraqi presidential adviser Amir al-Saadi, who led the Iraqi delegation (Philadelphia Inquirer). One important development over the weekend was Iraq’s acknowledgement that there were outstanding disarmament issues, a senior U.N. official said. “They finally acknowledged there were issues that needed to be resolved,” the official said. If Iraq continued to increase its cooperation with inspectors, then disarmament could still be accomplished peacefully, ElBaradei said. “The ball is very much in Iraq’s court,” ElBaradei said. “If we see full cooperation ... on all the issues, then I believe we will be given time we need. As long as we’re registering good progress, I think the Security Council will continue to support the inspection process,” he added (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, Feb. 10). U.S. Response U.S. officials have openly criticized Iraq’s new efforts to cooperate with inspectors, and have said that time is running out for Iraq to disarm, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. “The Iraqis are playing a game here,” U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said. “They do this every time they feel a little bit of pressure. What they’re trying to do is create a little bit of sense that they’re moving forward so they can release the pressure on themselves. But they have one thing to do and one thing only, and that is to disarm,” she added (Philadelphia Inquirer). If Iraq is still not fully cooperating with inspectors by a Security Council briefing scheduled for Friday, then U.S. President George W. Bush will immediately call for a U.N. resolution authorizing military action, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday. If Blix and ElBaradei report Feb. 14 that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is still not cooperating, “then the Security Council will have to sit in session immediately and determine what should happen next,” Powell said on NBC’s Meet the Press. The council would then have to “start considering a resolution that says Iraq is in material breach and it is time for serious consequences to follow,” he added (Steven Weisman, New York Times, Feb. 10). Bush said yesterday that the United Nations has reached a “moment of truth” in the crisis with Iraq and that the international body’s actions now could determine its future relevance. “You’ll see us over the next short period of time working with friends and allies and the United Nations to bring that body along,” Bush told a gathering of Republican lawmakers at a retreat in West Virginia. “And it’s a moment of truth for the United Nations. The United Nations gets to decide shortly whether or not it is going to be relevant in terms of keeping the peace, whether or not its words mean anything,” he added (Dana Milbank, Washington Post, Feb. 10). France, Germany Propose Alternative Meanwhile, France and Germany have proposed an alternative to the U.S. calls for action against Iraq. Their plan would triple the number of inspectors operating within the country, send U.N. peacekeepers to Iraq and convert the entire country into a no-fly zone, according to the Washington Times (see GSN, Feb. 4). Both countries plan to present their proposal to the Security Council Friday after Blix and ElBaradei give their briefing, the Times reported (Ellen Sorokin, Washington Times, Feb. 10). Germany, which has long resisted military action against Iraq, “could well take” part in the peacekeeping force envisioned in the plan, said German Defense Minister Peter Struck. Already, Russia and Belgium have offered support for the plan, according to BBC News. “I have no doubt that Russia will adhere to it,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said yesterday, referring to the Franco-German plan (BBC News, Feb. 9). Senior U.S. officials, however, have criticized the Franco-German plan, according to the Washington Times. Powell said the plan “misses the point.” “It’s the wrong issue," Powell said on Meet the Press. “The issue is not more inspectors. The issue is compliance on the part of Saddam Hussein. This idea of more inspectors or a no-fly zone or whatever else may be in this proposal that is being developed, is a diversion, not a solution,” he added. If the United Nations chose to adopt the Franco-German plan, such a decision could lead to the United States launching an attack on Iraq without U.N. support, Powell said. “If the U.N. does not face up to its responsibilities as clearly laid out in Resolution 1441, then it would be necessary for the United States to act with a willing coalition,” Powell said, referring to the resolution that established the current inspections regime (Sorokin, Washington Times). NATO France, Germany and Belgium earlier today blocked efforts by other NATO nations to enhance Turkey’s defenses in the event of a war with Iraq, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Jan. 30). France exercised its veto with only an hour to go before the deadline. Representatives from the three countries said the planning was unnecessary because there was still a chance that a peaceful solution could be found to the Iraq crisis. “It [the planning] would signify that we have already entered into the logic of war, that ... any chance, any initiative to still resolve the conflict in a peaceful way was gone,” Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel said. Turkey has now requested emergency consultations under NATO’s mutual defense treaty — the first time in the alliance’s history that a nation has done so. Turkey is expected to ask for the defense planning to begin, and diplomats have said they expected the three countries to end their opposition. “What is important, is that we arrive at a consensus and I’m confident we will,” said NATO Secretary General George Robertson. U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld criticized the veto. “Shameful, for me it’s truly shameful,” Rumsfeld said in an interview published yesterday in the Italian newspaper La Republica. “Turkey is an ally. An ally that is risking everything ... How can you refuse it help?” he added (Paul Ames, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 10). Exile The United States and the United Kingdom are developing a proposal to offer Hussein 48 hours to voluntarily go into exile or risk an attack, which would be included as a section of any second U.N. resolution, according to the London Sunday Telegraph (see GSN, Jan. 31). The two-day deadline is seen as enough time for Arab diplomats to make a last attempt to convince Hussein to step down or for him to be overthrown in a coup, U.S. officials said. British Foreign Office officials have confirmed that Saudi Arabia has offered to provide a haven for Hussein if he chose to go into exile, according to the Sunday Telegraph (Coman/Brown, London Sunday Telegraph, Feb. 9). Biological Weapons Program Justified, Dr. Germ Says Iraq was justified in producing biological agents in the 1980s and the 1990s to serve as a deterrent, Rihab Taha, a former top Iraqi biological weapons scientist who has been dubbed “Dr. Germ” by the media, said yesterday. “We never wanted to cause harm or damage to anybody,” Taha said in an interview with the BBC’s Panorama program. “Iraq has been threatened by different enemies and we are in an area that suffers from regional conflict. I think it is our right to have something to defend ourselves and to have something as a deterrent,” she added. Taha said she had no plans to submit to a private interview with U.N. inspectors, saying it was her “right” to conduct such an interview with Iraqi officials present. “I do not trust them from the last inspections,” Taha said. “I think it is better for me and for them and for everybody to have witnesses because I think it is our right,” she added (Associated Press/MSNBC.com, Feb. 9). Iraq Counters Powell’s Missile Test Stand Claims Iraqi officials Friday took reporters to the al-Rafah plant, about 50 miles west of Baghdad, in an attempt to counter Powell’s claims that a missile test stand there was designed to test missiles with ranges beyond U.N. limits (see GSN, Feb. 6). In his recent presentation to the Security Council, Powell said the al-Rafah test stand, which is larger than previous test stands, is meant “for long-range missiles that can fly 1,200 kilometers.” The stand is larger, however, because it is meant to test-fire missiles in a horizontal position, rather than vertically as with the old stand, said Ali Jassim, director of the al-Rafah plant. The new configuration is safer, he added. “By constructing this facility, we are taking precautions to keep people from getting burnt,” Jassim said. Jassim also defended the presence of an aluminum roof over the test stand. Powell had alleged that the roof was meant to block satellites from taking images of the stand. The roof is actually meant to protect the stand from “rain and dust,” Jassim said (Ian Fisher, New York Times, Feb. 8). Inspections U.N inspectors Friday conducted private interviews with three Iraqi WMD scientists — two on nuclear and biological weapons and one scientist involved with Iraq’s nuclear program, according to the New York Times. So far, inspectors have been able to talk to four Iraqi scientists without the presence of government minders (Ian Fisher, New York Times, Feb. 9). On Saturday, inspectors visited at least six suspect Iraqi sites, according to an IAEA press release. Chemical experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission inspected the al-Rasheed Water Project in Baghdad. UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the al-Mutassim Training Institute in northwestern Baghdad. UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited the Djerf al-Naddaf facility. Inspectors based in the northern city of Mosul visited the Mosul Technical Institute. IAEA inspectors conducted a motorized radiation survey in the Baghdad area, according to the agency press release. A second IAEA team deployed two mobile air-sampling units at two locations in Baghdad (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Feb. 8). For further information, see:
From February 10, 2003 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsExperts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ reported activities.
From February 7, 2003 issue.Iraq I: Bush Supports Second U.N. ResolutionThe United States is prepared to support a second U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq, U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 6). Meanwhile, Iraq appeared to increase its cooperation with inspectors by allowing a scientist to be privately interviewed. While the United States is willing to support a second resolution, it must also be backed by “resolve” from the Security Council members, Bush said. “The United States would welcome and support a new resolution which makes clear that the Security Council stands behind its previous demands, yet resolutions mean little without resolve,” he said in a White House appearance with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell. By passing a second resolution, the United Nations can demonstrate that is prepared to meet future challenges, Bush said, one day after Powell presented U.S. evidence to the Security Council outlining Iraq’s alleged efforts to conceal continuing weapons of mass destruction programs. “The United Nations can renew its purpose and be a source of stability and security in the world. The Security Council can affirm that it is able and prepared to meet future challenges and other dangers,” Bush said. “And we can give the Iraqi people their chance to live in freedom and choose their own government,” he added. While Bush expressed support for the idea of a second U.N. resolution, he also indicated that the United States and its like-minded allies might not hesitate to act if one is not approved. “The United States, along with a growing coalition of nations, is resolved to take whatever action is necessary to defend ourselves and disarm the Iraqi regime,” Bush said. “[Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein has made Iraq into a prison, poison factory and a torture chamber for patriots and dissidents. Saddam Hussein has the motive and the means and the recklessness and the hatred to threaten the American people. Saddam Hussein will be stopped,” he added (White House release, Feb. 6). The United Kingdom will probably introduce a new resolution authorizing the use of military action against Iraq, but not until after a briefing by the heads of the U.N. inspections teams scheduled for Feb. 14, a British diplomat said. “We’ve made very clear we want a second resolution, but also all members of the council want to hear back from the inspectors on Feb. 14,” the diplomat said. “After that, the council will need seriously to grip the issue of Iraqi noncooperation. That’s likely to mean work on a second resolution,” the diplomat added (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 7). Iraqi Cooperation Meanwhile, Iraq yesterday allowed one of its scientists to undergo a private interview with weapons inspectors — an issue that had been a previous source of contention between Baghdad and the inspectors, according the Associated Press. The Iraqi biologist allowed a private interview yesterday, but a U.N. official said the biologist had appeared to be coached by Iraqi officials. It is still unknown if other WMD scientists and technicians will also agree to such interviews, AP reported. Inspectors had previously attempted to privately interview 16 Iraqi scientists, but none had accepted (Hamza Hendawi, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 7). U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix, who is expected to travel with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei to Baghdad this weekend, said the interview demonstrated a new Iraqi effort to cooperate with inspections. Blix said he welcomed the measure but wanted to see “a lot more” during his and ElBaradei’s visit. “We want to see disarmament of Iraq through the inspection process,” Blix said in a speech to new weapons inspectors being sent to Iraq. “It requires active cooperation from Iraq, not on process but on substance,” he added (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Feb. 7). British Report Used Old Materials A recently released British report that outlined Iraq’s attempts to obstruct inspectors included several sections copied almost verbatim from previously published sources, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corp. (see GSN, Feb. 4). Some sections of the report, Iraq — Its Infrastructure of Concealment, Deception and Intimidation, appeared to have been taken from a Ph.D. thesis written by Ibrihim al-Marashi that was published in a U.S. academic journal last year. The sections appeared to have been directly copied, including typing and grammatical mistakes that were in al-Marashi’s thesis, the broadcast reported. Al-Marashi said he did not know that the United Kingdom had used his work in its report (Australian Broadcasting Corp., Feb. 8). The British report also appeared to contain material from articles that appeared in Jane’s Intelligence Review in 1997 and November 2002, Jane’s reported today. While the information contained in both the Jane’s articles and the British report is accurate, London’s exact use of the previously published materials made it easier to determine what information had been previously classified, according to Jane’s (Christopher Aaron, Jane’s Intelligence Review, Feb. 7). A spokesman for British Prime Minister Tony Blair said today “in retrospect we should have acknowledged” that sections of the report were based on al-Marashi’s work. Some British lawmakers, however, said the issue reflected an attempt by Blair to mislead the public on a war with Iraq. The report “is another example of how the government is attempting to mislead the country and Parliament on the issue of a possible war with Iraq,” said Labor Party lawmaker Glenda Jackson. “And of course to mislead is a Parliamentary euphemism for lying,” she added (Jill Lawless, Associated Press/Austin American-Statesman, Feb. 7). International Support Several countries have sent, or are considering sending, anti-WMD units to the Persian Gulf, as well as providing other assistance to the United States ahead of any potential military conflict with Iraq, according to reports (see GSN, Jan. 29). Slovakia has approved the use of a Slovak biological and chemical defense unit in a potential war against Iraq, but only if the U.N. Security Council approves a resolution authorizing military action, according to the Bulgarian online news source Novinite.com (Novinite.com, Feb. 7). The Bulgarian Cabinet has recommended to the Bulgarian Parliament that the United States be granted overflight and transit rights for six months and the use of an airbase located in Burgas residential district of the city of Sarafovo, according to Novinite.com. The Bulgarian Parliament is expected to vote on the proposal today (Novinite.com, Feb. 7). Ukraine plans to send a radiological defense team to support coalition forces in Iraq should war break out, the country’s U.S. ambassador, Carlos Pascual, said yesterday. The team is also reportedly equipped to protect troops against biological and chemical attacks (Zhao Yu, Xinhua News Agency, Feb. 7, GSN translation). The United States has approached Spain about providing an anti-WMD unit in the event of war with Iraq, the Spanish newspaper El Mundo reported. While interested, Washington has not yet made a formal request for the unit, a Spanish official said (Agence France-Presse, Feb. 7). About 60 German anti-WMD troops and six “Fox” WMD-detection vehicles are currently stationed in Kuwait, according to the Associated Press. The German troops are there as part of the Combined Joint Task Force for Consequence Management, which also includes 160 U.S. troops and 250 Czech troops. The German troops, however, have no mandate to cross the border into Iraq and will not do so unless the decision is approved by the German Parliament (Steven Gutkin, Associated Press/Newsday, Feb. 7). Inspections U.N. inspectors yesterday visited at least 10 suspect Iraqi sites, according to an IAEA press release. Inspectors based in the northern city of Mosul visited the Arab Company for Detergent Chemicals in Baiji. Missile experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission visited al-Kadhimiya to verify Iraq’s declaration of the site and to establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism. IAEA inspectors continued their inspection of the Ashakyli Stores and held meetings at the National Monitoring Directorate (IAEA release, Feb. 6). For further information, see:
From February 7, 2003 issue.Iraq II: United States Appears Set on War, Experts SayBy Mike Nartker The only options that could stall U.S. action against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein at this point would be either a “bullet in Saddam’s head” or “Travelocity [airline] tickets for a large amount of families,” former senior U.N. weapons inspector David Kay said yesterday during a Brookings Institution briefing. There is increasing evidence that the United States is building up the military force needed for war, said Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings, noting the recent beginning of the deployment of the 101st Airborne Division to the region. Another sign that the United States is close to attacking will be any deployment of the “the first, the first and the first” — the 1st Mechanized Infantry division, the 1st Armored Division, or the 1st Armored Cavalry division, he said. U.S. President George W. Bush’s harsh criticism of Iraq’s human rights record during his State of the Union address last month is another indication of the administration’s intent to attack, said Kenneth Pollack, a member of the National Security Council staff during the Clinton administration (see GSN, Jan. 29). In his speech, Bush said, “International human rights groups have catalogued other methods used in the torture chambers of Iraq: electric shock, burning with hot irons, dripping acid on the skin, mutilation with electric drills, cutting out tongues, and rape. If this is not evil, then evil has no meaning.” The White House had resisted having Bush present such a strong argument against Iraq’s human rights record, Pollack said, because, once made, such criticism could not be later withdrawn. Even if progress was made on resolving the conflict surrounding Iraq’s WMD efforts, inspections cannot resolve human rights concerns — leaving the need for military action to remove Hussein, he said. U.S. Plans The United States has two impending windows for war in March — the first 10 days and the last 10 days, O’Hanlon said. These low-moonlight periods would give U.S. forces optimal conditions for nighttime operations, he said. The United States could also begin an attack in early or late April for similar reasons, O’Hanlon said. A U.S.-led attack on Iraq would probably combine aspects of both the 1991 Gulf War and the recent war in Afghanistan to root out al-Qaeda and the Taliban, Pollack said, adding that U.S. ground forces would play a large role. Two recent developments — Jordan’s granting of overflight rights and Turkey’s decision to allow the stationing of U.S. troops there — will have strategic advantages, he said. U.S. forces stationed in Turkey could pin down and distract Iraqi forces in the northern part of the country as well as defend the Kurdish population there from retaliation. By being allowed to fly through Jordanian airspace, U.S. fighter aircraft will be able to better hunt down and destroy Iraqi Scud missile launchers in the western desert section of the country. Powell Makes the Case The expert panel yesterday uniformly praised U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s recent presentation to the U.N. Security Council of U.S. evidence demonstrating Iraqi noncompliance with U.N. resolutions, saying it helped bolster the case for military action (see GSN, Feb. 5). “One of the finest performances I’ve ever seen,” Kay said, adding that Powell’s presentation was so effective, no one present claimed afterward that Iraq was complying with inspectors. Ivo Daalder, a senior fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, agreed, saying the White House chose wisely when it picked Powell to present the U.S. argument. “Powell has more credibility than anyone else in the administration,” Daalder said. One of the strongest sections of Powell’s presentation was his warning that the United Nations needed to act or risk sinking into irrelevance, Kay said. “This body places itself in danger of irrelevance if it allows Iraq to continue to defy its will without responding effectively and immediately,” Powell said in his presentation. Powell’s warning was a powerful threat to the smaller countries of the United Nations, who see the international body as one of their few checks on U.S. power and ability to act on a global stage, Kay said. Pollack said there were three target audiences for Powell’s presentation: the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. public and the international community. Of these, the Security Council is probably the least relevant because the council members will view any decision on whether to attack Iraq as a policy decision and are unlikely to be swayed by speeches, he said (see GSN, Feb. 6). While Powell was effective in increasing U.S. support for an attack by explaining the justification, he was less successful in convincing the international community, Pollack said. For example, most Arab states appear to have completely dismissed Powell’s presentation and the European reaction has been mixed at best, he said. What the United States needs to do now is “follow-through” on Powell’s efforts by continuing to send out administration officials to make the case against Iraq and by continuing to release U.S. intelligence showing Iraqi noncompliance, Pollack said. He added that while the leaders of a number of countries have privately expressed support for U.S. action against Iraq, they have also warned the United States that it needs to do more to increase public support within their countries. “Powell’s presentation was a great start, but it was [only] a start,” Pollack said. Ball in Hussein’s Court Following Powell’s presentation, Iraq might now choose to make a few technical concessions related to inspectors’ concerns, but is likely to continue to deny the bulk of the U.S. claims, said Amatzia Baram, a professor of Middle Eastern history at the University of Haifa in Israel (see GSN, Feb. 4). For example, Iraq could concede on the issue of allowing U-2 high-altitude reconnaissance flights, he said. Iraqi presidential adviser Amir al-Saadi was reported as indicating earlier this week that Iraq might be ready to compromise on this issue. Another area potentially open for compromise is the private interview of WMD scientists and technicians by inspectors, Baram said. The Associated Press reported today that Iraq has allowed a biologist to participate in such an interview. Hussein feels safe in allowing this because Iraqi intelligence services already know what information each scientist could possibly divulge, and even if the interviews are conducted without Iraqi minders present, the scientists and their families remain in “mortal danger,” Baram said. Iraq is not likely to make major concessions to the United States or inspectors, however, before the approval of a second U.N. resolution authorizing the use of force, according to Baram (see GSN, Feb. 4). That will be the “moment of truth,” for Hussein, he said. Once the threat of an attack is imminent, Hussein will be likely to gather his top advisers and seek their honest advice on what to do next, Baram said. While Hussein has enjoyed a public reputation as being a loose cannon, he often makes rational and calculated decisions at times of crisis, he said. There is a “50.5 percent” chance that Hussein will give in to a small extent on the WMD issue in an attempt to buy more time, Baram said, adding that the decision will be “the most difficult of his life.” Iraq sees its WMD arsenal as important for its survival — a view that would have to be balanced against the threat of a U.S. occupation of Baghdad, Baram said. A second U.N. resolution would be “the moment where they have to rethink the whole thing,” Baram said. The “Samson Option” If war did occur, however, Hussein might attempt what Baram called “the Samson option” — WMD attacks against his enemies in a scorched-earth fashion (see GSN, Oct. 11, 2002). Hussein would probably issue orders for chemical weapons attacks against U.S. forces to at least slow them down, Baram said. It is also possible that Hussein would order using biological weapons against the Shiite community in southern Iraq, which he would then blame on the United States, both in an attempt to slow a U.S. advance and to settle old scores, he said. As part of the Samson option, Hussein could also try to establish a place for himself in Arab history by ordering WMD attacks against Israel in an attempt to inflict mass damage, Baram said, noting that Hussein places a high importance on his future place in history. The United States has begun planning an information campaign to persuade Iraqi military officers to ignore orders to use weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Sept. 30, 2002). Such a campaign would involve the use of leaflets dropped on Iraqi positions, special aircraft messages and even electronic mail communications, according to reports. Baram doubted, however, that most Iraqi officers fully understood the U.S. legalistic approach, by which the United States has warned of war crimes charges against Iraqis who use weapons of mass destruction. Instead, the United States needs to make the Iraqi officers more afraid of U.S. punishment for obeying such orders than they are of Hussein, Baram said, adding that such a task will be difficult. Aftermath Once the United States has overthrown Hussein, the postwar occupation and reconstruction of Iraq will not be easy, the experts said. For example, U.S. troops cannot expect the same warm welcome from the Iraqi Shiite Muslim community that Israeli troops received from the Shiite Muslims in southern Lebanon when they invaded in 1982, Baram said. History has demonstrated that Iraqis are a fiercely nationalistic and difficult people, Baram said. “They’re proud of it,” he added. While the Iraqi population is likely to accept the U.S. presence in the end, the United States will have to be sensitive to Iraqi concerns, Baram said. He said this was a lesson the United Kingdom failed to realize when it occupied Baghdad after World War II. The United States will need to use local leaders who did not actively collaborate with the Baath Party, as well as opposition members in exile, to serve as links to the local population, he said. In the end, however, most U.S. troops should be able to leave Iraq fairly quickly after the fall of Hussein and Iraq should be able to gradually return to self-rule, Baram said. Kay, however, differed with Baram’s view that the Iraqi population would be any more difficult for the United States to oversee after Hussein. “I don’t know anyone in the Middle East who isn’t [difficult],” Kay said. For further information, see:
From February 7, 2003 issue.Iraq III: Summary of InspectionsExperts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ reported activities.
From February 7, 2003 issue.United States: Prosecutors Say Ex-Couple Had Top Secret Nuclear PapersDuring a detention hearing in Spokane, Washington, a former member of the U.S. National Guard and his ex-wife, a special education teacher, have been accused of having national security documents related to U.S. nuclear, chemical and biological capabilities, the Associated Press reported today. The two have pleaded not guilty. The documents have not been recovered and officials cannot describe their contents because they are classified, according to U.S. officials who spoke at the detention hearing for Rafael and Deborah Davila. “More than 300 top-secret documents got passed,” said FBI agent Lee McEuen. He said they would be worth millions of dollars on the black market and of great interest to militias and terrorist groups. “Based on that, I believe, they are a huge danger to the United States,” he said. The United States cannot “at this time” prove that any foreign government was involved in obtaining the documents, according to Assistant U.S. Attorney Earl Hicks (Nicholas Geranios, Associated Press/Seattle Times, Feb. 7).
From February 6, 2003 issue.Iraq I: Security Council Members Unswayed Immediately After Powell BriefingU.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s detailed presentation yesterday of Washington’s charges that Iraq is failing to disarm and is cooperating with al-Qaeda terrorists did little to change minds on the U.N. Security Council about whether to authorize the use of force against Iraq. Countries that favor continuing weapons inspections used Powell’s evidence as proof that strengthened inspections, not war, was the best course (see GSN, Feb. 5). Powell’s 80-minute presentation charged that Iraq was concealing weapons of mass destruction such as developing biological weapon in mobile laboratories, obstructing inspections, intimidating scientists so that they would not allow themselves to be interviews by inspectors and allowing al-Qaeda to freely operate out of Baghdad and northern Iraq. He played intercepted conversions between Iraqi officials discussing hiding prohibited material and showed satellite photos he said showed Iraqi trucks removing banned weapons from buildings as inspectors arrived. Iraqi Ambassador Mohammed al-Douri said Powell’s allegations “are utterly unrelated to the truth. No new information was provided.” He said the presentation contained “incorrect allegations, unnamed sources, unknown sources. There are assumptions and presumptions which all fall in line with the American policy.” Speaking at the end of the council session, al-Douri said weapons of mass destruction “cannot be concealed. Inspectors have crisscrossed all of Iraq and found none of that.” Al-Douri said there is no proof the recordings are genuine or that mobile biological weapons laboratories exist. He said samples taken from sites “concluded the absence of any indication of proscribed chemical, biological or radiological agent.” Al-Douri quoted Hussein as saying, “We have no relationship with al-Qaeda.” “The clear goal behind holding this meeting, behind the presentation of [Powell] of false allegations before this council today is to sell the idea of war and aggression against my country Iraq, without any legal, moral or political justification,” he added. French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, the veto-holding council member most vocally opposed to military action, said the presentation “brings a new justification to the path chosen by the United Nations,” meaning inspections. “For now the inspections regime, favored by Resolution 1441, must be strengthened since it has not been explored to the end,” he said, referring to the resolution adopted unanimously by the council in November, that paved the way for the return of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency to Iraq. “Why go to war if there still exists an unused space in Resolution 1441?” he asked. Speaking to journalists after the council meeting, de Villepin said, “There is not absolute proof in these matters. There are indications, information, suspicion and we should all try to know more about it and that’s why we need the inspections.” De Villepin proposed to the council that the next step should be a stronger inspection regime. “With the choice between military intervention and an inspections regime that is inadequate for lack of cooperation on Iraq’s part, we must choose to strengthen decisively the means of inspection,” he said. He proposed doubling or tripling the number of inspectors, opening up more regional offices, establishing a new body to keep under surveillance sites already inspected, and increasing aerial surveillance of Iraq. “This is the demanding demarche that we must take together for a new stage. Its success presupposes, today as yesterday, that the international community remains united and mobilized,” de Villepin said. Germany, an elected member of the council and this month’s president, endorsed the French position. German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said, “We need a tough regime of intensive inspections that can guarantee the full and lasting disarmament of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.” “Quite a few states suspect that Saddam Hussein’s regime is withholding relevant information and concealing military capabilities,” said Fischer. “This strong suspicion has to be dispelled beyond any doubt. This is exactly why Resolution 1441 provides for the instrument of inspections. ... The dangers of a military action and its consequences are plain to see. Precisely because of the effectiveness of the work of the inspectors, we must continue to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis.” Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said Powell’s evidence “convincingly indicates the fact that the activities of the international inspectors in Iraq must be continued. They alone can provide an answer to question of to what extent is Iraq complying with the demands of the Security Council.” On the other hand, Foreign Minister Jack Straw of the United Kingdom called the Powell report “a most powerful and authoritative case against the Iraqi regime.” He said, “Iraq is in further material breach. … Security Council members will share my deep sense of frustration that Iraq is choosing to spurn this final opportunity to achieve a peaceful outcome.” Resolution 1441 uses the term “material breach” as justification for the use of force if Iraq continues to hinder inspectors. “By 1441, we strengthened inspections massively,” Straw said. “The only missing ingredient was full Iraqi compliance.” Saddam Hussein, Straw said, “holds 1441 in the same contempt as all previous resolutions in respect of Iraq. ... Let us reflect on what that means — that Saddam is defying every one of us, every nation here represented. He questions our resolve and is gambling that we will lose our nerve rather than enforce our will.” “Time is now very short. If noncooperation continues, this council must meet its responsibilities,” Straw said. “This is a moment of choice for Saddam. But it is also a moment of choice for … the United Nations.” Spanish Foreign Minister Ana Palacio supported Washington and London, saying Powell presented “compelling data ... that confirms that Iraq is deceiving the international community and is not cooperating” with inspectors and “is in violation of the obligations” under Resolution 1441. “More time doesn’t mean time for inspections, it means time for Saddam Hussein to disarm voluntarily,” she added. Most council members said they hoped the inspectors would find the new evidence presented by Powell useful and asked the United States to share it with the inspectors. “This information has to be immediately handed over for processing by UNMOVIC and the IAEA, including through direct onsite verification during the inspections in Iraq,” Ivanov said. “It is now decisive that the U.N. inspectors are also provided with the extensive material, in so far as this has not yet happened,” said Fischer. The suggestion that Washington has not provided the United Nations with everything it knows provoked an angry response from the United States. “Every actionable item had already been shared with them before today,” one U.S. official said. Secretary General Kofi Annan, who attended the meeting along with UNMOVIC head Hans Blix and IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, said after the session, “I still believe that war is not inevitable but a lot depends on President Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi leadership. I think the message today has been clear -- everyone wants Iraq to be proactive in cooperating with the inspectors and fulfill the demands of the international community. I think if they do that, we can avoid a war.” Annan also said th | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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